At exactly 9AM on 16 August, a 4.5M earthquake hit Xizang on the Tibetan Plateau. Four hours later, 65km away in Nepal, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">a glacial lake burst</a> unleashing a cascade of destruction downstream. It is not certain if that tremor so nearby caused the lake to burst — either because an avalanche on the south ridge of Mt Tengi Ragi Tau fell into it, or heavy monsoon rain led to the collapse of a moraine. Either way, the snowmelt emptied into another lake below and unleashed a debris flow that roared down the valley to the village of Thame. Fortunately, children at a school had gone home early that Friday and inhabitants had time to climb to safety when they heard the approaching roar. There were no fatalities. Thame was not as lucky on 4 August 1985, when a bigger lake in an adjacent valley, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">Dig Tso, burst after an avalanche fell on it</a>. Twelve people were swept away by the ensuing flood, a newly built hydropower plant was destroyed, and a section of the Everest trekking trail was washed away.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climactic-change">Glaciologist Tenzing Chogyal Sherpa</a> remembers his mother telling him that their home in Namche Bazaar was spared because it was on higher ground. “But she told us that with trails destroyed, food and supplies couldn’t reach us. At one point, her family had to survive on rotten potatoes,” recalls Sherpa, who works at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and uses remote sensing to map climate-induced hazards in the Himalaya. &nbsp; He says the Thame flood this week was a reminder of the inherent risk of living in the mountains which are magnified by climate breakdown. And the region is still very much at risk.&nbsp; “To the south, we have Lumding Tso, a potentially dangerous glacial lake that also empties into the Dudh Kosi, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis">to the west in Rolwaling is Tso Rolpa</a>, a lake that is now 3km long. And to the north is Dig Tsho, which burst in 1985,” says Sherpa.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240823050844_34eedc4fb5b287a3b861a2b2196758c635d011ec5666bac2031a8c6f0bde801b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240823050844_34eedc4fb5b287a3b861a2b2196758c635d011ec5666bac2031a8c6f0bde801b" data-rendition-name="original" width="623" height="695" loading="lazy" alt="Thame flood map"> </figure>  "We are facing one of the worst disasters since the Dig Tso flood. This is a wake-up call, not just for us in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu">Khumbu</a>, but for the entire Himalaya to rethink our ways, find alternatives to reduce the risks, and explore measures to protect ourselves," he adds. The Thame flood was a smaller disaster compared to the flood that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">destroyed the Melamchi headworks in 2021</a>, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">massive Sikkim flood last year</a>, or the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-lost-cannot-be-repaid">debris flow that ravaged Kagbeni</a>. All were caused by glacial lake bursts or moraine collapses due to extreme rainfall. Anil Pokhrel of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) flew to Thame on Saturday morning to inspect the glaciers above the village. He confirmed that two of five small glacial lakes below Tashi Lapcha pass had caused the flood. Satellite data shows that till two years ago, there were only four lakes.&nbsp; Across the Himalaya, there are now thousands of new glacial lakes that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Lake,1404">do not even have names</a>. In Nepal most of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up">21 most dangerous ones</a> are located in the centre and east of the country, but there are dozens of enlarged lakes in China which drain into tributaries of rivers that flow into Nepal like the two Bhote Kosis, Arun and Tama Kosi.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240823050844_4e2cc8d68aea97f2b8262553ada6d911acf0ff1883b5454b151e85effde1745e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20240823050844_4e2cc8d68aea97f2b8262553ada6d911acf0ff1883b5454b151e85effde1745e" data-rendition-name="original" width="920" height="496" loading="lazy" alt="at risk GLOFs in Nepal map"> </figure>  Some of these lakes are infamous because of their volume, the rate at which they are expanding, and the potential danger they pose to populations downstream — like Tso Rolpa, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/walking-the-talk-on-climate">Imja Tso</a> and Thulagi. But the Thame flood, and others like the Nare Lake outburst below <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-it-about-ama-dablam">Ama Dablam</a> in 1977 show that even smaller lakes can cause massive damage. In fact, it does not even take a lake burst to cause destructive debris flows. The Melamchi and Kagbeni floods appear to have been caused by moraines that collapsed in unusually heavy rain because they were no longer cemented by permafrost.&nbsp; Even a relatively small flood like the one in Thame can be damaging far downstream. The debris flow moved swiftly downstream, destroying a Rs80 million bridge on the Dudh Kosi in Okhaldhunga. Most villages downstream had been evacuated, so there were no casualties. If the flood had been bigger, it would have threatened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">major hydropower projects</a> on the Dudh Kosi. “We cannot ignore smaller lakes anymore,” warns Pokhrel of NDRRMA. “We often think and plan from a hazard perspective, how big a disaster can be. But we must also look at risk, possible cascade damage on downstream communities.”&nbsp; Thame is at 3,840m elevation, but Pokhrel says he was surprised by how warm it was up there this week. “It felt like Kathmandu,” he says. “And satellite imagery shows accelerated melting of the upstream in the past month which could have led to the cascading collapse of the two lakes.”&nbsp; Glacial lake outbursts and debris flows are going to be more destructive and frequent in Nepal in the coming years, making them a fact of life. Seismic risk in the Himalaya adds to the dangers posed by the climate emergency. Local communities and governments have no option but to adapt by installing early warning systems, planning <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-s-cooking-in-nepal-besides-politics">smaller decentralised hydropower schemes</a>, moving settlements and infrastructure higher, and conducting detailed hazard mapping. “Thame showed us we cannot only rely on satellite mapping, and why in-situ observation is so important in a country with such a diverse topography and climate as ours,” says Sherpa. “There are more than 50,000 glaciers in the Himalayan region and we haven’t even studied 1% of them.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024082108084_aa61ab79fcc840b34f0392965affa0dbe6ad7c86f99c8b0205b0ce49c9584c64.jpg" data-media-id="editor_16" data-image-id="2024082108084_aa61ab79fcc840b34f0392965affa0dbe6ad7c86f99c8b0205b0ce49c9584c64" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="thame flood"> <figcaption>Thame flood this week. Photos: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Despite the scarcity of field data, there have been considerable advances in remote sensing technologies that have helped fill this gap in data and help understand the changing cryosphere. ICIMOD’s recent report shows that glacier mass loss has increased by 65% in recent decades. The report also warns that the risk of flooding could increase much more in the coming century. Because so many of Nepal’s rivers are transboundary, a bilateral early warning mechanism with China is also urgent. Because of the scale of the danger, Nepal needs resources from the international community for adaptation, as well as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lost-and-damaged">loss and damage reparation</a> to cope with future risk. “Our government needs to get in touch with the Chinese government to conduct a study of glacier lakes located near Tibet, which are the source of glaciers in Nepal. We should collaborate on early warning system and implementing risk reduction measures,” says Anil Pokhrel.&nbsp; Tenzing Chogyal Sherpa co-founded a global advocacy campaign called <a href="https://saveoursnow.earth/">#SaveOurSnow</a> last year to provide local communities with agency to deal with climate induced risk. Supporters of the campaign include former new Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark, celebrity mountaineers like Reinhold Messner, Chris Bonington, Kenton Cool and the descendants of Tenzing Norgay. Says Sherpa: “As glaciers melt and lakes expand, disasters like Thame will be more frequent, we have to adapt. We need to tell our stories to the world, even as they continue to debate on the topic, we are already facing the brunt of it without having caused it ourselves. At local levels, we have to get back on our feet and prepare for what's coming.”&nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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Lives on the line in the Himalaya

Some 15 million people worldwide are at risk from flooding caused by glacial lakes, half of them in India, China, Pakistan and Peru, according to the latest study published in the journal Nature Communications. As the most densely populated mountain country in the world, Nepal is at higher risk. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Nepal Himalaya can be even more catastrophic for towns along valley floors as well as downstream infrastructure. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">What happened in Melamchi </a>in July 2021 is a sign of things to come. Nepal’s largest infrastructure project to supply water to Kathmandu was nearly destroyed by a massive debris flow after a cloudburst upstream in the Langtang National Park. “What make GLOFs worse in Nepal is that they are often combined with the monsoon,” explains watershed expert Madhukar Upadhyay. “Every year we have seasonal floods. When a weakened moraine is breached, more water is added to already swollen rivers. Making matters worse is high-intensity rainfall in higher altitudes as we saw in Manang in 2022.”&nbsp; Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment/">Climate risk to hydropower investment</a>, Ajaya Dixit  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230602040624_e60a90be970842d53f6e236b1a59612c82aa035635a3ae4838481a31710f1446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230602040624_e60a90be970842d53f6e236b1a59612c82aa035635a3ae4838481a31710f1446" data-rendition-name="original" width="853" height="640" loading="lazy" alt="Melamchi amage NT"> <figcaption>The damage from a massive debris flow on the Melamchi River in June 2021 to the channel diverting water from the Melamchi to the tunnel at the project headwork. Photo: SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption> </figure>  Scientists say that the permafrost binding loose moraine material is also melting, and without the cementing action of the ice the moraine walls can collapse easily in heavy precipitation. Rain falling where there used to be snow is making matters worse.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">The Himalaya is melting</a> faster than the global average, and even in the best-case scenario, the mountains will lose more than one-third of their ice by 2100.&nbsp; A paper published in the journal Climate and Atmospheric Science last year revealed that the rate of ice loss on the South Col of Mt Everest is shocking: what took 2,000 years to accumulate is melting in a mere 25 years.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/">Tracing past glacial floods in Kanchanjunga</a>, Alton C Byers  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230602040632_f3e5d9e3eb4dca842d715afab7ee68899e0fa3c0d2f9f039d9b288b1492f4955.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230602040632_f3e5d9e3eb4dca842d715afab7ee68899e0fa3c0d2f9f039d9b288b1492f4955" data-rendition-name="original" width="891" height="500" loading="lazy" alt="Map"> </figure>  There are 3,252 glacial lakes in Nepal, including the Khumbu Glacier where Base Camp is now 50m lower than when Hillary and Tenzing climbed Everest<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/everest-70-years-on"> seventy years ago</a>.&nbsp; Imja was a debris covered glacier on trekking maps even 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. Tso Rolpa glacial lake at 4,580m in the Rolwaling Valley has grown seven times in size in the past 60 years. “There is a lot of evidence that the number of glacier lakes in Nepal and worldwide is increasing,” says Miriam Jackson, glaciologist with the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). “The size of existing lakes is also increasing. For example, the area of glacier lakes increased by 12% in the Kosi basin and 8% in the Gandaki basin.” The water level in Imja has been lowered by 3.4m and by 3m in Tso Rolpa at a cost of $7.2 million and $9 million respectively. Scientists now say the water level in Tso Rolpa needs to go down by another 20m to reduce risk of bursting. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up">DANGER: Nepal’s glacial lakes are filling up</a>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230602040628_4ac8ea629de0f69bfb27fe9b783f126c7eea6dcadda7e812436d393d7c21c13e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20230602040628_4ac8ea629de0f69bfb27fe9b783f126c7eea6dcadda7e812436d393d7c21c13e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1843" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Imja lake NT"> <figcaption>A frozen Imja Lake looking east from the outlet. Photo: SHARAD JOSHI</figcaption> </figure>  There are other potentially dangerous lakes like Thulagi below Himalchuli, and new lakes are emerging on both sides of the Himalaya in China and Nepal that have not even been mapped. Nepal’s glaciers are shrinking three times faster than in 1998 and Jackson says that the possibility of flooding, whether from glacial lakes or other sources, is taken into account when building close to the rivers. When Nepal’s only reservoir project on the Kulekhani was commissioned in 1982, engineers had designed it to function for 100 years. But a cloudburst in the catchment area in 1993 deposited so much debris into the lake that its lifespan was reduced by 30 years. “Melamchi and Kulekhani are proof that the entire Himalayan region including Nepal are not suited for mega projects. Our focus and investment should instead be on multiple small-scale projects spread out across the country,” says watershed expert Madhukar Upadhyay. As for infrastructure already under construction, there are several mitigating measures that can be deployed, such as early warning and real-time information systems in the catchment area, not only about rainfall but GLOFs and landslide blocked rivers. Experts say Nepal and the countries in the Himalaya should not overlook the phenomenon of permafrost melting that is making the mountains and moraines much more prone to erosion. Permafrost is a thick subsurface layer of frozen soil that is generally not visible and thus harder to identify. Besides Melamchi, thawing permafrost is thought to have been partly responsible for the Chamoli disaster in the Indian Himalaya in 2021. Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2391#.XoyO8MgzbIU">The day after tomorrow in the Himalaya</a>, Navin Singh Khadka “Generally, moraines have an ice core, which is one reason why moraine-dammed lakes are so dangerous. The ice could be hundreds or even thousands of years old and melt very slowly but the moraine is constantly settling,” explains Jackson. “Thawing permafrost makes mountains unstable, thus causing rockfalls. If there is a landslide into a glacier lake, then that could trigger a flood.” GLOFs also have a transboundary dimension since so many of Nepal’s rivers and their tributaries originate in glaciers in Tibet. Of the 47 high-risk glacial lakes in Nepal, 20 of them start in Tibet (see map, below). Mitigating measures such as artificially lowering the water level are expensive which makes cross-border early warning of GLOFs so crucial. ICIMOD has launched the Kosi Initiative with a transboundary working group collaborating with the Chengdu-based Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment (IMHE) and others. It has also done computer modelling of flood hazard and an assessment called WeACT that integrates local knowledge with science to improve community preparedness. But GLOF risk can be reduced if vulnerable communities are aware of the danger, are given decision-making powers and have the resources to be prepared, as has been seen in Chunkung in Khumbu and Langtang, where villagers are adapting to climate change by building embankments on their own, and avoiding construction along river banks. Says Madhukar Upadhyay: “We need to strengthen our local science to better understand the geology and glaciology, make local communities and the national government aware of the dangers and take the risk into account in building settlements, hydropower plants, bridges and roads.” &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/">Human face of a Himalayan climate crisis</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari

For destruction, ice is also great and will suffice

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83d99c7e80680e06775ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1843" height="1000"/><figcaption>A frozen Imja Lake looking east from the outlet. Photo: SHARAD JOSHI</figcaption></figure>It is now looking doubtful if countries around the world can cut their greenhouse gas emissions as agreed in Paris six years ago, so that global temperature rise will be limited to 1.5 Celsius by 2050. The earth is going to heat up by more than that.Even if it is 1.5 Celsius, the average temperature in the Himalaya will go up by 1.8 degrees because of a phenomenon called ‘altitude effect’. The best-case scenario is that one-third of all remaining Himalayan glaciers will have melted during this century. However, if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at the present rate, two-thirds of Himalayan ice will be gone by 2100.All this will have a catastrophic effect on water supply for 1 billion people downstream on rivers that originate in the Himalaya, as well as throw off kilter weather systems.  It will also increase the danger of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacial lake outburst floods</a> (GLOF) within Nepal.Till the 1960s, the Imja Glacier near Mt Everest had only a few melt-pools. Since then, the ice has been replaced by a lake nearly 2km long, 600m wide and up to 150m deep. The ice is receding 70m a year.As glacial lakes expand, there is a danger of them bursting due to water pressure, or because of earthquakes and avalanches falling into them. As the average temperature in the mountains rises by 0.056 Celsius every year, the threat of glacial lake outbursts will only grow.On top of the perennial risk of earthquakes, new hydropower stations, highways along rivers, bridges and towns will also have to take into account the threat of GLOFs. The flash flood near <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/non-climate-cause-of-nanda-devi-flood/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nanda Devi in India’s Uttarakhand state</a> in March washed away two hydroelectric plants that were under construction.There is a warning there for Nepal, which is building cascade projects on the two Bhote Kosi rivers that flow down from China, Tama Kosi, Marsyangdi, and the Arun. In the Gandaki Basin is the particularly dangerous Thulagi glacial lake below Himalchuli, which would directly threaten three major hydroelectric projects along the Marsyangdi River. Scientists monitoring Thulagi have found the glacier has receded by 2km since 1984, the ice replaced by a lake.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/">Tracing past glacial floods in Kanchanjunga</a>, Alton C Byers<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83dc9c7e80680e06775fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1080"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“If Thulagi were to burst, the flood would go down 100km downstream on the Marsyangdi and Narayani, taking out hydroelectric projects, highways and towns along the way,” says Pradeep Mool, a glacial scientist formerly with ICIMOD.A survey last year showed that GLOF risk is highest in eastern Nepal. There are 42 dangerous lakes on the Kosi basin alone, like Imja, Tso Rolpa, Lower Barun and Hongu. The bursting of any one of these would send a wall of water and debris downstream to the Kosi.There is also the danger of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transboundary GLOFs</a>. In the past, even the bursting of relatively small glacial lakes in Tibet have caused major damage in Nepal. The earliest recorded one was in 1934, when a flash flood from a glacial lake burst in Tibet caused destruction along the Bhote Kosi.In 1981, another glacial lake burst in China caused a flood on the same river in Nepal, damaging the Sun Kosi power plant and washing out a 25km section of the Arniko Highway, cutting Nepal’s only road to China for three years.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83e09c7e80680e067760jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1506"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Of the 47 very dangerous lakes that threaten Nepal’s valleys, 25 originate in glaciers in Tibet. Since 1977, there have been at least 20 GLOFs of which 14 were caused by glacial lakes in Nepal bursting, and the rest were in China.To understand what a GLOF looks like, we have the<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Seti flood of 2012</a> which killed nearly 70 people north of Pokhara. Although not caused by a glacial lake burst, it demonstrated the destructive power of such a flood.Although Nepalis may not be responsible for global heating, it does not mean we can sit back and do nothing. While scientists try to figure out exactly how fast the glaciers are melting, Nepal’s policy-makers need to start planning to be prepared for floods that are bound to be unleashed.The danger of GLOFs are compounded by Nepal also being on a seismically active zone. Many of these fragile Himalayan glacial lakes could burst simultaneously during a large earthquake.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b83e39c7e80680e067761jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1369" height="630">This calls for hazard mapping, early warning systems through SMS or radio, as well as mitigation efforts like those carried out to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Diverting-danger,3172" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reduce water levels on Imja</a> and Tso Rolpa. The microhydro scheme on the Langtang Lirung Glacier that reduces the water level on a recently-formed glacial lake, and also generates electricity could be a model for other remote valleys in Nepal.Because glacial lakes are located at such high altitudes in remote roadless areas, lowering their water level can be expensive. Most of the equipment has to be flown in by helicopter, and work is often hampered by altitude and weather. The question is: who should pay for these risk-reduction measures?“Even if the water level is reduced they can burst and come down like tsunamis, we have to keep monitoring the lakes, and install effective early warning systems in Tso Rolpa and Imja to at least save lives if we cannot save the infrastructure,” says Sarju Baidya of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.There are no feasible methods to prevent a glacial lake from bursting, and it is not in our power to stop the lakes expanding. So the only thing Nepal can do is to reduce the level of the most dangerous lakes, design downstream infrastructure taking the dangers into account, and to have an early warning system.Says Pradeep Mool: “What we can do immediately is to install measurement stations and monitor them by satellite, prioritise the high-risk lakes for site inspections to gauge the strength of the moraines, and make a short list of the most dangerous ones for early warning, and mitigation measures.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/">Human face of a Himalayan climate crisis</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari

DANGER: Nepal’s glacial lakes are filling up

<figure><img width="2560" height="1967" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8519c7e80680e092e37jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The origin of the Nanda Devi massif rockslide and the debris flow on a CubeSat image at 10:30 IST, just before the flood reached the Tapovan Hydropower Project site 22km downstream. The dotted black line shows the sediment deposited on the adjacent slopes of the river valley, with the rockslide marked in red. Image: ICIMOD</figcaption></figure>More than a month after the catastrophic flashflood in Chamoli district of the Indian Himalaya, scientists say that the cause was failure of a rock face, and not just the result of a glacial lake burst caused by climate change.Early reports had suggested that the flood of water and debris that raced down the Rishiganga on 7 February, damaging four hydroelectric plants and killing more than 200 people, may have been caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). <img width="640" height="463" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8549c7e80680e092e38jpeg.jpg" alt="">However, analysis of satellite images before and after the disaster show that there were no lakes on the Ronti Glacier in the Nanda Devi (7,816m) massif, and the disaster happened in winter when the supra-glacial ponds were frozen. <figure><img width="2048" height="1449" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8569c7e80680e092e39jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Scientists have concluded that a 500m wide section of the face of Ronti Peak broke off at 10:30am on 7 February at an elevation of 5,500m and fell with tremendous force on the glacier below. The kinetic energy of an estimated 22 million cubic metres of falling rock also melted ice deposits from a previous avalanche in 2016.Scientists say that the disaster was not directly caused by global warming, but <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFgdSlP7mXxpGofYUH2Q6dgxNd1xw">climate change could have contributed</a>. Uttarakhand state recorded its warmest January in six decades this year, and there had been winter storms the previous week that had deposited a lot of snow on the slopes. Ice also cements rock fissures at higher elevations, and when it melts the rocks can come loose.‘The Chamoli flood was not caused by a GLOF as there were no significant glacial lakes in the area,’ write a group of researchers led by Arun B Shrestha in a recent paper for the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),  ‘… (but) the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFgdSlP7mXxpGofYUH2Q6dgxNd1xw">increased thaw-freeze cycle of permafrost could have partially contributed to the event.’</a>Even so, researchers at the <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-underground-glacial-lake-led-to-flash-floods-says-iisc-analysis-101612842535639.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-underground-glacial-lake-led-to-flash-floods-says-iisc-analysis-101612842535639.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHUxxKYGuO-LH5Lmhia8nvW3Oi2HA">Divecha Centre for Climate Change at Indian Institute of Science in Bengaluru</a> used glacier thickness mapper data to detect a sub-surface lake containing 4.5 million cubic metres of water stored in a bedrock depression near the Nanda Devi Glacier terminus that could have caused the flood.  Scientists note that not all Himalayan hazards can be attributed to the climate crisis. An <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEsZOhcMFA8vxHbbwUxFh8HOESRwQ">identical rock slip on Annapurna IV</a> in Nepal on 5 May 2012 caused a flashflood on the Seti River that killed at least 72 people. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-courage-and-endurance-of-the-langtangpa/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-courage-and-endurance-of-the-langtangpa/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHonfzkoR0q5xry76GBTl4UyM05-w">deadly avalanche on Langtang</a> on 25 April 2015 killed nearly 200 people, and was triggered by an earthquake. Another flood that blocked the Arun River in eastern Nepal in July 2017 was traced to a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvsIDn5dmC06mGMdSJ_ogC8tBCYg">rock-fall that caused a glacial lake to top over.</a> <figure><img width="850" height="478" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8599c7e80680e092e3ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTEiergMkJv8bcv86ZOG8uUmM3_Q">GLOFs</a> happen when ice and snow melted by the climate thaw accumulates in enlarging lakes, which can burst due to increased water pressure, or when avalanches fall into them.  And while there are frequent GLOFs, especially in the eastern Himalaya, scientists agree that it was not the main trigger of the Nanda Devi disaster last month.  The other disasters on Himalayan rivers are caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvsIDn5dmC06mGMdSJ_ogC8tBCYg">bishyari</a>, a local word that refers to a floods due to a landslide blocking a river to impound a lake that suddenly bursts, as what happened in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/One-month-after-the-mountain-fell,1637" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/One-month-after-the-mountain-fell,1637&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEpOyzNu1-11qUQhioHciDTUNZdGQ">Jure of Sindhupalchok on 2 August 2014.</a>Another catastrophic example is the co-seismic mountain slide that blocked the Seti River about 500 years ago, creating a huge lake that then burst depositing the 200m thick sediment layers on which the city of Pokhara is now located.   Nepal’s former water resource minister and hydropower expert Dipak Gyawali says that bishyari are known to happen in 10-15 year cycles in Nepal. The etymology of the word itself shows that human dwellers of the Himalaya have known of the phenomenon for thousands of years, he says.“Even if these floods are not directly caused by climate change, it can exacerbate the disaster because of extreme weather events,” Gyawali said in an interview.Himalayan floods therefore pre-date climate change, and are caused by the vulnerability of these young, fragile mountains to natural and human-induced processes like the indiscriminate use of heavy earth-moving vehicles on poorly-engineered roads.  Such ‘bulldozer terrorism’, has exacerbated the frequency of landslides in central Nepal  after the 2015 earthquake, according to a recently published paper in the journal, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061721000193" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061721000193&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfGOeUwHuVmX29jd0yc9zjQ9LTRg">Progress in Disaster Science.</a> <figure><img width="499" height="397" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd85d9c7e80680e092e3bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After analysing remote sensing data, the researchers conclude that although the number of landslides had started falling after 2015, there has been an uptick since 2017 possibly due to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/dozers-and-nepals-development/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/dozers-and-nepals-development/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEh-pzzDl7j405T7swUxTKR34tVPg">proliferation of rural road construction</a> around the time of the elections. (See graph, above.) Gyawali suggests that a solution could be better-planned infrastructure and settlements that take into account known hazards. As the Chamoli flood showed, expensive hydroelectric projects located closer to the high mountains are more at risk. He suggests investing in smaller hydropower plants in side tributaries rather than the main stem of major Himalayan rivers to mitigate the danger, and to spread the risk. However, most of Nepal’s planned large hydropower projects are on rivers like the Tamor, Arun, Dudh Kosi, Bhote Kosi and Budi Gandaki. The Himalaya is a young and unstable mountain range that is battered by a heavy monsoon three months a year. Into this high-risk zone, there is now the added threat of climate-induced disasters. Says Gyawali: “We cannot completely remove these disasters from happening, but we can try to understand them and plan to minimise the risk.”

Non-climate cause of Nanda Devi flood

<figure><img width="1859" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101156/636ccac69c7e80680e08bb88jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>What remains of the Dhauliganga hydropower project in Chamoli district of India’s Uttarakhand state after Sunday’s deadly glacial flood. Photo: STR</figcaption></figure>The devastating <a href="https://theprint.in/science/uttarakhand-chamoli-disaster-likely-caused-by-landslide-not-glacial-outburst-satellite-images-reveal/600859/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">collapse of the Nanda Devi glacier</a> in India’s Uttarakhand state on 7 February that killed hundreds should be a warning for Nepal to be prepared for similar disasters in future.
A <a href="https://www.planet.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">PlanetLabs</a> image seems to confirm that a rock-ice slope detached completely from near the summit of the 7,816m high peak in the Garhwal Himalaya near Nepal’s western border, crashed on to the glacier below, and bulldozed the ice and debris into the Dhauliganga and the Alkananda Rivers.
There are tell-tale signs of new brown dust on the western side of the valley in satellite images. The ice melted as it reached a warmer, lower altitude and unleashed the flood that raced downstream. Two hydroelectric projects on the rivers were completely destroyed, highways were washed away and settlements buried under metres of water and debris. 
The Nanda Devi disaster is almost identical to the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Seti River flash flood</a> of 2012 north of Pokhara that killed nearly 80 people. A massive chunk of rock near the summit of Annapurna IV broke off, fell on the glacier and the ensuing flood <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19479#.YCEipy8RoWo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">barrelled down the Set</a>i, causing the fatalities.
Another <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-water" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flash flood on the Arun River</a> in eastern Nepal in 2017 was traced to slope failure on a mountain on the Nepal-China border that fell on a glacial lake, triggering a flash flood that washed down so much debris that it dammed the main river.
In all three cases, disasters that at first thought to be a Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) turned out to be rock-ice avalanches that led to a glacier collapse. The water and debris then cascaded down the valleys in a deadly paste obliterating everything in its path.
Whereas the increased risk of GLOFs in the Himalaya is linked directly to the climate crisis melting the ice and expanding moraine-impounded lakes, this does not appear to be the direct cause of the Nanda Devi event—just as it was not in the Seti and Arun. Rockfalls that lead to the collapse of glaciers, squeezing the water out of ponds in them and melting of the ice as it is pushed down to a warmer altitude.
Some of these glaciers may have lakes that top over when an avalanche or rockfall hit their surface, or global warming may have melted the ice within debris-covered glaciers. We do not know if these events are becoming more frequent due to a Himalayan thaw caused by the climate crisis.
Whatever the case, it is clear that the countries that share the Himalaya from Afghanistan to Burma have to be prepared for more frequent disasters of this type. The risk of GLOFs and flash floods have to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">factored into planning infrastructure</a> and human settlements downstream.
Although GLOFs and glacial collapse get all the attention, the Himalaya are also prone to landslide-blocked dams during the rainy season. The mountains are relatively young, they are seismically active and their slopes very unstable. Monsoon rains have been known to trigger landslides the block major rivers, as happened on the Bhote Kosi in Jure in 2014.
Fortunately, the river found a way around the blockage. But there have been cases when the impounded lake is large enough to cause catastrophic bishyari floods downstream when the landslide dams collapse.
The flat terraces where the city of Pokhara is situated today was probably formed, geologists say, when a landslide blocked the Seti upstream some 700 years ago. It gave way, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2012/05/05/avalanche-flood-on-seti/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">unleashing a tsunami</a> at least 150m high. Pokhara is located in the debris fan of this flood which dammed side rivers, forming Phewa, Begnas and other lakes.
To warn that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tracing-past-glacial-floods-in-kangchenjunga/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">similar catastrophes can strike</a> in the Himalaya is not panic-mongering. It is a call to be prepared. And let us hope the worst-case scenario of a mega-quake causing multiple glacial lake outburst floods does not happen any time soon.A Himalayan <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Glacial Lake Inventory</a> launched at a <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">webinar</a> on Monday says that of the expanding glacial lakes in the Himalaya, 47 on the watersheds of Nepal’s three main rivers are at high risk of bursting, and causing catastrophic floods downstream. Of these, 42 lakes are on the Kosi River basin in eastern Nepal, three are on the Gandaki and two on the Karnali watersheds.A report last year by the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a> and UNDP mapped 3,624 glacial lakes in the Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali basins and found 47 lakes at risk from bursting. Of these 25 are in Tibet and drain into rivers that flow into Nepal. For now, existing towns along the rivers must have early warning systems. Infrastructure planning must take into account the glacial flood risk. And because so many of the high-risk glacier-fed rivers flow across national boundaries, international cooperation must be a must.

More Himalayan tsunamis

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3aa9c7e80680e07bb55jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1148" height="759"/><figcaption>Tso Rolpa glacial lake at 4,580m has grown seven times in size in the past 60 years due to global heating. Photo: RASTRARAJ BHANDARI</figcaption></figure>A new report out this week warns that hundreds of glacial lakes in the Himalaya are in danger of bursting because global heating is melting the ice on the world's highest mountains. However, on only two of them have there been mitigation measures to reduce water levels.Those projects have been prohibitively expensive, and questions have been raised about their sustainability and whether they offer a long-term solution.The water level of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQqRLDTM5grtmwzGwIaNowvT8YVA">Tso Rolpa glacial lake in the Rolwaling Valley</a> was lowered 20 years ago after scientists warned that it was in imminent danger of bursting. The project cost $9 million at the time, most of it coming from The Netherlands.Its sluice gate lowered the water level by only 3m, and scientists now say it needs to go down by a further 20m to reduce risk of it bursting. A network of early warning stations downstream also has not functioned as planned.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3ad9c7e80680e07bb56jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="749" height="500"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The other project was a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Diverting-danger,3172" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Diverting-danger,3172&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEzjK6xZYP2UlpO845JQUGvWXX7-w">drainage channel and gate built on Imja Lake</a> in the Mt Everest region in 2016 by the Nepal Army with support from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) at a <a href="https://undp-climate.exposure.co/in-pictures-peoplepowered-climate-adaptation-in-nepal" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://undp-climate.exposure.co/in-pictures-peoplepowered-climate-adaptation-in-nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3t2JWDSs3D2O1Qt4izuTV31jEpQ">cost of $7.2 million</a>.The project located at 5,000m altitude was <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Sustainable-Mountain-Development-Getting-the-Facts-Right-Jack-D-Ives,946" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Sustainable-Mountain-Development-Getting-the-Facts-Right-Jack-D-Ives,946&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE-VqTq7lypmtE-h7cavGE15lDCpw">criticised at the time</a> for being an expensive show-case on a popular tourist site near Mt Everest, and for wasting money on a lake that is relatively stable because it is buttressed by two side moraines of the Lhotse Nup and Nuptse Glaciers. Glacial lakes like <a href="https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2306&amp;context=himalaya" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article%3D2306%26context%3Dhimalaya&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGiefBPIhM8TyxKAWYVSeHxZbPX6Q">Thulagi in Lamjung</a> on the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/lake-464-glacial-lake" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/lake-464-glacial-lake&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1Mutd985NNyrTLmT_nvWOtHNhYQ">Hongu basin</a> were said to be in much greater danger of bursting, and <a href="https://glacierhub.org/2016/06/22/military-intervention-at-nepals-fastest-growing-glacial-lake/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://glacierhub.org/2016/06/22/military-intervention-at-nepals-fastest-growing-glacial-lake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMww2bKHDexG28W6Fcyj4fKtuDWg">needed more urgent mitigation</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3af9c7e80680e07bb57jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="537" height="431"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And it has emerged that four years after the project was completed and the water in Imja Lake lowered by 3.4m, the Nepal Army and its main contractor have yet to remove their excavators and other equipment from the site as per the contract -- flouting guidelines of Sagarmatha National Park, which is a World Heritage Site.Despite recent interventions by UNESCO and the national park, the Nepal Army has said it is technically not possible to take the equipment out because of altitude restrictions on its helicopters. The firm hired by the army, Krishna Construction, says its contract does not say anything about removal of equipment.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3b19c7e80680e07bb58jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="536" height="458"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3b39c7e80680e07bb59jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="540" height="330"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Glacial Lake Inventory report launched at a <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFp2v-R1EwAEPQAwzlTD_C-dgl5Pg">webinar</a> on Monday says that of the expanding glacial lakes in the Himalaya, 47 on the watersheds of Nepal’s three main rivers are at high risk of bursting, and causing catastrophic floods downstream. Of these, 42 lakes are on the Kosi River basin in eastern Nepal, three are on the Gandaki and two on the Karnali watersheds.However, not all the lakes are located in Nepal. Of the 47 dangerous lakes, 25 are in Tibet and empty into rivers that flow down directly into Nepal. One of the high risk lakes is in Indian territory near Karnali.This week’s report by the Kathmandu-based <a href="https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.icimod.org/event/glacial-lake-inventory-launch/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFp2v-R1EwAEPQAwzlTD_C-dgl5Pg">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a> and UNDP mapped 3,624 glacial lakes in the three river basins in Nepal, China and India, of which 2,070 are within Nepal’s boundaries. The other 1,509 are on the Tibetan Plateau in China and 45 are in India, but drain into Nepal.The researchers evaluated the risk factors for the glacial lakes depending on the integrity of their moraine dams, topography of the surroundings and the risk of avalanche into the lakes, as well as downstream settlements and infrastructure and divided them into three categories.Of the 47 dangerous lakes on the Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali basins, 31 were found to be at very high risk of bursting and causing damage. Twelve other lakes are at moderate risk and there are four lakes in the lower risk category.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3b49c7e80680e07bb5ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="831"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The lakes are expanding because the ice fields feeding them are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFziTwdDLkl5JF1xIjm8fDL18A4Sw">melting faster due to global heating,</a> as well as increased deposition of soot particles on the snow. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFEwtJkUB1QL98Dmfr7jVG349bG3Q">An ICIMOD assessment</a> last year reported that even in the best case scenario, the Himalaya will lose one-third of its ice and snow during this century. But recent studies have shown that the melting is actually happening faster than previously thought, and is accelerating.This has increased the number of glacial lakes in the Nepal Himalaya as well as their sizes. For example, remote sensing data in the report showed that there were 3,609 glacial lakes in Nepal’s three river basins with a combined area of 180sq km. By 2015, the number had grown to 3,696 and they covered a combined area of 195.4sq km.Scientists have long noted that the rate of melting is higher in the eastern Himalaya than in the west, and the report confirms this. Interestingly, while the number of glacial lakes in the Kosi basin has gone down, their total area has increased by 14sq km – largely because supraglacial ponds have merged, or the lakes have drained without bursting.The report has also recorded 26 <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-water" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-water&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599636709453000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG57P3tY-Tj18gLSJl0V0eJT_JiAg">glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events</a> in the Nepal Himalaya since 1977, but only 14 of them were on lakes located in Nepal. This emphasises the importance of trans-boundary early warning system – especially on lakes in Tibet upstream on the two Bhote Kosi rivers, Tama Kosi, the Arun and others.

Nepal's glacial lakes in danger of bursting

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

glacial-lakes