The devastating flood on Wednesday morning in the Indian state of Sikkim is another shocking proof of what can happen if rampant, unplanned and poorly engineered infrastructure are built along Himalayan rivers at risk from climate breakdown and weather extremes. Heavy rains caused a cloudburst at the tri-junction of India Nepal and China in the Kangchenjunga region this week. The South Lhonak proglacial lake burst, unleashing a debris flow that destroyed the Chungthang Dam and causing a deadly flash flood on the Teesta River in Sikkim, West Bengal and as far downstream as Bangladesh. Till press time, at least a dozen people are confirmed dead, with scores missing. Other hydropower projects in Sikkim were also damaged, while many bridges and highways were washed away. Indian satellite imagery confirmed that the flood was triggered by a sudden outflow from South Lhonak, which then led to the collapse of the Chungthang Dam, draining its reservoir, and unleashing the combined debris flow.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023100417100_be35e3f15eed641f71b7901e7d61b671037b7f84c0046bbe55cf9698e99c5e23.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2023100417100_be35e3f15eed641f71b7901e7d61b671037b7f84c0046bbe55cf9698e99c5e23" data-rendition-name="original" width="2266" height="1664" loading="lazy" alt="sikkim flood 4"> <figcaption>Location of the South Lhonak glacial lake near the ti-junction of the borders of Nepal-India-China, and the Chungthang Reservoir in India's Sikkim state.</figcaption> </figure>  The 4 October flood on the Teesta proves that there could be much more destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) in store in future as global warming melts the Himalayan icecap. These mountains are warming 0.7 Celsius faster than the global average, making glaciers recede and shrink, leaving large moraine-dammed lakes.&nbsp; Hundreds of new proglacial lakes have emerged in the past decades, mostly in eastern Nepal, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis" target="_blank">India</a>, Bhutan and southern Tibet. Glaciologists are tracking at least 40 of them which they say are fragile, either because of water accumulation, from seismic activity, or because of avalanches causing the lakes to overtop their moraine dams. There are so many new lakes that many do not even have names, but numbers.&nbsp; In an uncannily accurate forecast of Wednesday’s disaster, Indian glaciologist Ashim Sattar had co-authored a paper in the journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/" target="_blank">ScienceDirect</a> in 2021 titled <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169555X21001914" target="_blank">Future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya</a>, warning of the danger of avalanches falling into the lake causing it to burst. The team measured the lake volume at 115 million cubic metres. Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/for-destruction-ice-is-also-great-and-will-suffice">For destruction, ice is also great and will suffice</a>, Sonia Awale  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231004161056_1a13cedaca6a951a56e4ef19737a7fbed6d993132ee810442c47e9f28791885e.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20231004161056_1a13cedaca6a951a56e4ef19737a7fbed6d993132ee810442c47e9f28791885e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2924" height="1638" loading="lazy" alt="sikkim flood 2"> <figcaption>The Chungthang Dam and its reservoir before Wednesday's  disaster.</figcaption> </figure>  ‘This enormous volume of water in a highly dynamic high-mountain environment makes this lake a priority for GLOF risk management,’ the paper warned. ‘Our results show that the GLOF susceptibility will increase due to the expansion of the lake towards steep slopes, which are considered potential starting zones of avalanches.’&nbsp; Wednesday’s GLOF event washed away the 1,200MW Chungthang Teesta III Project which had a 60m concrete and rockfill dam, tunnel and underground powerhouse built at a cost of $1.7 billion. Sikkim has invested heavily on hydropower projects, with more than 35 cascade schemes on the Teesta and its tributaries that drain Mt Kangchenjunga, the world’s third highest mountain. There are no reports of damage to infrastructure on the Nepal side of the Kangchenjunga catchment, where there are numerous hydropower plants in operation and under construction on the Tamor, Arun, Kabeli and other rivers. An early monsoon cloudburst in Taplejung in June killed at least 40 people, and damaged several of those hydropower projects. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231004161056_39dd2836f0245ebee3be82facf6a538f8dad8dc413ce15b7f8553bc797b4e307.png" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20231004161056_39dd2836f0245ebee3be82facf6a538f8dad8dc413ce15b7f8553bc797b4e307" data-rendition-name="original" width="2704" height="1522" loading="lazy" alt="sikkim flood 3"> <figcaption>The South Lhonak glacial lake had 115 million cubic metres of water, and glaciologists had warned it could burst.</figcaption> </figure>  A <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure" target="_blank">flood in July 2021</a> in Nepal similar to this week’s Sikkim disaster damaged a $800 million project to supply water from the glacier-fed Melamchi River through a 26.5km tunnel to Kathmandu. Although the tunnel was saved, the headworks were destroyed, and the project is still not back in full operation. In 2015, a glacial lake burst in Tibet and brought down debris flow that damaged the 44MW Bhote Kosi project in Sindhupalchok district that had just been repaired after the Jure landslide and the 2015 earthquake. In 2022, heavy rains damaged a dozen under construction hydropower projects in central Nepal, causing huge losses.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023100417100_ec7eddfb3319ac8e328d695bcf6f3ec6ac674f6cd8fb9cc0a6d93ee83b194fc6.png" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2023100417100_ec7eddfb3319ac8e328d695bcf6f3ec6ac674f6cd8fb9cc0a6d93ee83b194fc6" data-rendition-name="original" width="2154" height="1004" loading="lazy" alt="sikkim flood 5"> <figcaption>Dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal, but there are other lakes in Tibet that are also at risk of bursting.</figcaption> </figure>  Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up">DANGER: Nepal’s glacial lakes are filling up</a> There are glacial lakes in central and eastern Nepal like Thulagi in Himalchuli, Tso Rolpa in Rolwaling and Imja in the Khumbu that would be just as dangerous as South Lhonak because of hydropower, highways and settlements downstream. In addition, dozens of glacial lakes on the Chinese side in Tibet also drain into tributaries of Nepal’s transboundary rivers and pose great risk.&nbsp; The water levels of Tso Rolpa and Imja have been lowered by building weirs on the moraine, but such construction is expensive and there are just too many lakes. A new lake that has emerged on Langtang Glacier is being drained to lower its level as well as generate hydropower, the first in Nepal.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231004161056_06c540103d49183011e7925639f8a3285f2a3823950aa12a350de7ba009de9a3.png" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20231004161056_06c540103d49183011e7925639f8a3285f2a3823950aa12a350de7ba009de9a3" data-rendition-name="original" width="2392" height="1474" loading="lazy" alt="sikkim flood"> <figcaption>Another view from the social media post of the breached Chungthang Dam.</figcaption> </figure>  As Nepal embarks on generating up to 30,000MW by 2035, the warning from Sikkim is clear: spread the risk and plan for the worst.

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Sikkim’s warning to Nepal

Just as the global tourism industry begins to revive after the pandemic, climate anxiety is affecting the travel business.&nbsp; In industrialised countries, awareness is spreading about consumption and the carbon footprint of long-distance air travel. The more ecologically conscious travellers are taking trains where available, and buying carbon offsets. Seasonal weather patterns in Nepal are complex to begin with, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves">climate change</a> has made them even more unpredictable and variable. This is something that trekkers to Nepal should now consider, and be flexible enough for change of itinerary or duration. Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/for-destruction-ice-is-also-great-and-will-suffice">For destruction, ice is also great and will suffice</a>, Sonia Awale &nbsp;Weather forecasts are getting more accurate, and it is now possible to plot the trajectory of late monsoon troughs, or cyclones in the Bay of Bengal so there is enough warning. Nepal is influenced primarily by the South Asian monsoon but the country has a rainfall gradient with a much wetter east and drier conditions as one heads westwards. Climate data analysis reveals that the Himalayan range is undergoing rapid change, with temperature increasing at a rate that is double that of the global average. In recent years, there has been an unpredictable rise in the frequency of extreme weather events.&nbsp; Higher temperature means the air carries more moisture, and as it rises along the mountains there can be violent convection storms. Higher temperatures also means an elevated risk of snow avalanches, and increased instances of rock falls as the ice in crevices on slopes melt. Read Also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal"> The ABCs of a winter trek in Nepal</a>, Monika Deupala With more precise storm forecasts, tragedies like the blizzard that hit Central Nepal in 2014 that killed at least 43 below Annapurna and Dhaulagiri can be prevented. Similar freak storms have occurred in the Khumbu and even in the usually arid trans-Himalayan regions like Mustang and Manang.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023092305090_9eaf7973ebb9e6e8a08b76c2f943fa565606d28182ff6c6a7e192ee8c174724d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2023092305090_9eaf7973ebb9e6e8a08b76c2f943fa565606d28182ff6c6a7e192ee8c174724d" data-rendition-name="original" width="4624" height="2136" loading="lazy" alt="ABC trek 2"> </figure>  The risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) is higher in eastern Nepal, but the Annapurna region also has some dangerous <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/danger-nepal-s-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up">glacial lakes </a>like Thulagi below Himalchuli, and others. But even without lakes, supraglacial ponds can cause sudden floods downstream like the one that hit Kagbeni this year. &nbsp;There are sections of the ABC trek, for example where avalanches off Annapurna South can funnel right down to the river. Evidence of these are ice fan deposits even at lower elevations.&nbsp; During a trek in May this year, we witnessed numerous such powder snow avalanches above Deurali. And unusually heavy downpours and hailstorms lashed us in the Chomrong and Sinuwa sections.&nbsp; Such extreme weather events not only pose risks to trekkers but also endanger local communities, including mountain porters. It is important for trekking groups to now be alert about weather warnings, and also take precautions like crossing avalanche fans before or after the most risky times between 9AM and 12 noon because rising temperature triggers melting of overnight snow. Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting">Nepal's glacial lakes in danger of bursting</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel Undoubtedly, embarking on the ABC trek is a once-in-a-lifetime experience, and with careful planning and adequate preparation against the growing incidence of extreme weather events in the region, it can be a relatively easy trek.&nbsp; A Himalayan trek is an opportunity to contribute to Nepal’s rural economy, and slow down the pace of life.&nbsp; The ABC of Treks Nepal’s tourism is seeing a vigorous rebound of trekking this autumn season, and total arrival figures for 2023 look like they will only be slightly lower than the pre-covid 1.2 million high in 2019. Trekkers and climbers have already arrived for the autumn season and have headed out to the high Himalaya.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230923040956_7adf7b2efb8e98245bd69a44d5a9c126751456d9c2a151f9fa6db82b542fc2b1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20230923040956_7adf7b2efb8e98245bd69a44d5a9c126751456d9c2a151f9fa6db82b542fc2b1" data-rendition-name="original" width="386" height="562" loading="lazy" alt="ABC trail"> <figcaption>Map: NT Graphics</figcaption> </figure>  Nearly 30% of all visitors go on treks, and most of them land up in the Everest and Annapurna trails, although the Manaslu circuit and Langtang are also gaining popularity. Trekkers on longer duration trips go to Mustang or Dolpo. Of these, the Annapurna Base Camp Trek and the Annapurna Circuit are the most popular because of the awe-inspiring views. The Base Camp trail follows the Mardi Khola and into the sanctuary which is ringed by rock and ice ramparts of Annapurna South, Annapurna 1, Annapurna 3 and Machapuchre.&nbsp; &nbsp;The Round Annapurna trail is now mostly motorised, but this cuts short the approach time which can be devoted to exploring side valleys in Manang and Mustang. The entire massif and its foothills lie within the Annapurna Conservation Area, spanning 7,629 sq km, which is a conservation model designed in Nepal for ecological preservation to be funded by eco-tourism.&nbsp; &nbsp;Annapurna 1 at 8,091m is the tenth highest mountain in the world and was the first eight-thousander to be climbed, and the story of 1950 French expedition by Maurice Herzog propelled Nepal into the world stage even before the Everest ascent three years later.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023092305098_48de92cc0c1dac270e73c3b4dac793a5a494230778f7737da5a50b26b5627200.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2023092305098_48de92cc0c1dac270e73c3b4dac793a5a494230778f7737da5a50b26b5627200" data-rendition-name="original" width="3264" height="1504" loading="lazy" alt="ABC trek 4"> </figure>  Annapurna 1 has long held the highest fatality-to-summit rate among the eight-thousander because of its technical difficulty and avalanche risk. As of 2022, 365 people had reached the summit of Annapurna I, while 72 have lost their lives attempting it. &nbsp;However, in recent years, climbing success rates have improved with reduced fatalities. Nevertheless, the mountain still presents serious objective dangers due to avalanches and rockfalls which have reportedly become more frequent due to climate-induced weather extremes. &nbsp;The south face of Annapurna 1 soars 3,000m above the base of the mountains and is considered one of the most difficult climbs in the world.&nbsp; &nbsp;Not everyone is there to climb Annapurna, and a trek to its base is an adventure in itself. The ABC (Annapurna Base Camp) Trail alone gets 55,000 visitors a year, and offers an enchanting excursion into a wilderness area with cloud forests teeming with wildlife. The ABC Trek is of moderate difficulty and does not require advanced physical fitness, making it accessible to everyone, including families with children. &nbsp;The trek offers a glimpse into Nepal’s immense biodiversity as well as ethnic groupings. A bonus is a natural hot spring near Jhinu Danda nestled amidst forested flanks. Locals believe the waters possess healing properties, and offer a refreshing respite to trekkers.&nbsp; Trekking to Annapurna Base Camp via Ghorepani aids in acclimatisation to high altitudes, allowing the body to adapt gradually. This preparation enables hikers to better cope with the physical demands of walking at up to 4,000m and above. &nbsp;Achyut Tiwari, PhD, is a Plant Ecologist and Assistant Professor at the Central Department of Botany at Tribhuvan University. &nbsp;

Trekking in the time of climate change

<figure><img width="3071" height="2284" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d195f9c7e80680e0ac817jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Chanaute after the flood on the Melamchi River in 2021. All photos: RAJU PANDIT CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>On 15 June, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/">Melamchi River north of Kathmandu</a> saw a massive flash flood, killing 25 people and sweeping away 200 houses and 360 hectares of farmlands.Another debris flow on the river on 31 July added to the destruction and misery. The disaster was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/">unprecedented in the Melamchi Valley</a>, and caught residents, trout farms, shops along the banks by surprise. Before the communities got a chance to fully rise from the massive double-earthquake in 2015, the region was hit yet again with another disaster.As a resident of the Chanaute, I lost close relatives and neighbours to the flood. My own house and farmland were destroyed. The river sliced through the bazar town, and its 56 houses are now ruined and abandoned. The hopes of my hard-working community have also been dashed.Local entrepreneurs, small shop owners and farmers whose arable land have turned into a boulder-strewn wasteland are shattered. Damage to roads and bridges hascut the valley’s connection to the outside world. Nepal’s most expensive water supply project has been damaged. <figure><img width="1024" height="768" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19639c7e80680e0ac818jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Any individual extreme weather event is difficult to directly attribute to the climate crisis. But the intensity and unpredictability of this year’s monsoon has been unprecedented. Manang and Mustang were hit by flash floods at the same time as Melamchi – even before the monsoon officially started. And even after the rainy season was formally over last week, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/">parts of the country were hit by record-breaking rainfall.</a>For the past decade, my career has taken me to numerous international climate summits where we have discussed strong national and international advocacy to address the impact of the climate crisis – especially on developing countries like Nepal.At international climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), I have observed climate-vulnerable countries make urgent pleas for ambitious action in tackling the climate crisis. Small, low-lying island states like the Vanuatu, Tuvalu and the Maldives have tried to show the urgency of it all – rising ocean levels will soon submerge their countries.The Philippines and Bangladesh continue to raise concern about the increasing intensity and frequency of typhoons and cyclones. Fragile mountain regions of the world are trying to get their concerns on the agenda.Next week, heads of state from around the world will start arriving in Glasgow for the 26th annual climate summit of the UNFCCC (called COP26). Recent impacts of extreme weather events around the world (wildfires in Siberia and the western US, heat waves in Canada, floods in Europe, landslides and floods in Japan, India, China) are likely to focus everyone’s mind on the climate emergency, and the message that we are all in this together. <figure><img width="1500" height="1125" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19669c7e80680e0ac819jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate impacts to avert and minimise some of the loss and damage will be at the forefront of the negotiations.  However, as the incoming president of COP26, the United Kingdom and the leaders of the industrialised world will have to face a new reality – to address the destruction unleashed by the climate crisis with rehabilitation, migration and financing.Industrialised countries have long brushed aside these issues, diluted their commitments to merely focusing on the weaker goal of reducing greenhouse gas emission, and providing token climate financing to allow low-income countries to adapt.In fact, addressing the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/">loss and damage from disasters</a> like the one that hit Melamchi and parts of the Himalaya will be one of the main pillars of the COP26 in Glasgow. Nepal’s delegation will be led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, and he is expected to speak about this year’s climate-induced disasters starting with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/">winter drought</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/">nationwide wildfires</a>, and floods.Nepal will have strong moral grounds to persuade world leaders that low capacity vulnerable countries need help to deal with a crisis that is not of our making. Himalayan glaciers are shrinking and receding fast, extreme weather trends are more pronounced, and this is impacting on infrastructure projects and threaten to undermine decades of progress in achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. <figure><img width="4000" height="3000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d19699c7e80680e0ac81ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/">A 2020 study by ICIMOD and UNDP</a> has shown that 47 glacial lakes in the Kosi, Gandaki and Karnali basins are in danger of bursting. Although 21 of these lakes are in Nepal, the others also drain into tributaries of rivers flowing into Nepal. These are ticking time bombs.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/">Glacial lake outburst floods</a> have been hitting Nepal’s Himalayan valleys with increasing frequency. In 2012, an <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330">avalanche on Annapurna</a> unleashed a catastrophic flood on the Seti River that killed at least 70 people. In <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2014/10/16/after-the-storm/">2014, a deadly post-monsoon blizzard</a> spawned by Cyclone Hudhud swept through the mountains catching many trekkers unawares. The Tarai have seen increasingly destructive floods in the past five years, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/">Bara district was hit by a rare tornado in 2019</a> that killed dozens.In Glasgow, Nepal will have to make a compelling case for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/">loss and damage compensation</a> for disasters like these. COP26 will be a make-or-break summit for reducing global carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. Nepal will also need to do its bit to achieve its updated Nationally Determined Contribution target to reduce emissions by 2030 by switching to renewable energy, and attain net zero by 2050.Glasgow will be an opportunity to link global targets to local impact, and to find ways to address the disproportionate destruction caused by climate crisis on the poorer parts of the poorest countries.Raju Pandit Chhetri is a resident of Chanaute in Nepal’s Melamchi Valley and works on climate change issues.

Think globally in Glasgow, and act locally

<figure><img width="2560" height="1967" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8519c7e80680e092e37jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The origin of the Nanda Devi massif rockslide and the debris flow on a CubeSat image at 10:30 IST, just before the flood reached the Tapovan Hydropower Project site 22km downstream. The dotted black line shows the sediment deposited on the adjacent slopes of the river valley, with the rockslide marked in red. Image: ICIMOD</figcaption></figure>More than a month after the catastrophic flashflood in Chamoli district of the Indian Himalaya, scientists say that the cause was failure of a rock face, and not just the result of a glacial lake burst caused by climate change.Early reports had suggested that the flood of water and debris that raced down the Rishiganga on 7 February, damaging four hydroelectric plants and killing more than 200 people, may have been caused by a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). <img width="640" height="463" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8549c7e80680e092e38jpeg.jpg" alt="">However, analysis of satellite images before and after the disaster show that there were no lakes on the Ronti Glacier in the Nanda Devi (7,816m) massif, and the disaster happened in winter when the supra-glacial ponds were frozen. <figure><img width="2048" height="1449" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8569c7e80680e092e39jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Scientists have concluded that a 500m wide section of the face of Ronti Peak broke off at 10:30am on 7 February at an elevation of 5,500m and fell with tremendous force on the glacier below. The kinetic energy of an estimated 22 million cubic metres of falling rock also melted ice deposits from a previous avalanche in 2016.Scientists say that the disaster was not directly caused by global warming, but <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFgdSlP7mXxpGofYUH2Q6dgxNd1xw">climate change could have contributed</a>. Uttarakhand state recorded its warmest January in six decades this year, and there had been winter storms the previous week that had deposited a lot of snow on the slopes. Ice also cements rock fissures at higher elevations, and when it melts the rocks can come loose.‘The Chamoli flood was not caused by a GLOF as there were no significant glacial lakes in the area,’ write a group of researchers led by Arun B Shrestha in a recent paper for the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD),  ‘… (but) the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-did-climate-change-contribute-to-indias-catastrophic-glacial-flood&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFgdSlP7mXxpGofYUH2Q6dgxNd1xw">increased thaw-freeze cycle of permafrost could have partially contributed to the event.’</a>Even so, researchers at the <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-underground-glacial-lake-led-to-flash-floods-says-iisc-analysis-101612842535639.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/uttarakhand-underground-glacial-lake-led-to-flash-floods-says-iisc-analysis-101612842535639.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463312000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHUxxKYGuO-LH5Lmhia8nvW3Oi2HA">Divecha Centre for Climate Change at Indian Institute of Science in Bengaluru</a> used glacier thickness mapper data to detect a sub-surface lake containing 4.5 million cubic metres of water stored in a bedrock depression near the Nanda Devi Glacier terminus that could have caused the flood.  Scientists note that not all Himalayan hazards can be attributed to the climate crisis. An <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEsZOhcMFA8vxHbbwUxFh8HOESRwQ">identical rock slip on Annapurna IV</a> in Nepal on 5 May 2012 caused a flashflood on the Seti River that killed at least 72 people. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-courage-and-endurance-of-the-langtangpa/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-courage-and-endurance-of-the-langtangpa/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHonfzkoR0q5xry76GBTl4UyM05-w">deadly avalanche on Langtang</a> on 25 April 2015 killed nearly 200 people, and was triggered by an earthquake. Another flood that blocked the Arun River in eastern Nepal in July 2017 was traced to a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvsIDn5dmC06mGMdSJ_ogC8tBCYg">rock-fall that caused a glacial lake to top over.</a> <figure><img width="850" height="478" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8599c7e80680e092e3ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-glacial-lakes-in-danger-of-bursting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTEiergMkJv8bcv86ZOG8uUmM3_Q">GLOFs</a> happen when ice and snow melted by the climate thaw accumulates in enlarging lakes, which can burst due to increased water pressure, or when avalanches fall into them.  And while there are frequent GLOFs, especially in the eastern Himalaya, scientists agree that it was not the main trigger of the Nanda Devi disaster last month.  The other disasters on Himalayan rivers are caused by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/more-himalayan-tsunamis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvsIDn5dmC06mGMdSJ_ogC8tBCYg">bishyari</a>, a local word that refers to a floods due to a landslide blocking a river to impound a lake that suddenly bursts, as what happened in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/One-month-after-the-mountain-fell,1637" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/One-month-after-the-mountain-fell,1637&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEpOyzNu1-11qUQhioHciDTUNZdGQ">Jure of Sindhupalchok on 2 August 2014.</a>Another catastrophic example is the co-seismic mountain slide that blocked the Seti River about 500 years ago, creating a huge lake that then burst depositing the 200m thick sediment layers on which the city of Pokhara is now located.   Nepal’s former water resource minister and hydropower expert Dipak Gyawali says that bishyari are known to happen in 10-15 year cycles in Nepal. The etymology of the word itself shows that human dwellers of the Himalaya have known of the phenomenon for thousands of years, he says.“Even if these floods are not directly caused by climate change, it can exacerbate the disaster because of extreme weather events,” Gyawali said in an interview.Himalayan floods therefore pre-date climate change, and are caused by the vulnerability of these young, fragile mountains to natural and human-induced processes like the indiscriminate use of heavy earth-moving vehicles on poorly-engineered roads.  Such ‘bulldozer terrorism’, has exacerbated the frequency of landslides in central Nepal  after the 2015 earthquake, according to a recently published paper in the journal, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061721000193" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590061721000193&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfGOeUwHuVmX29jd0yc9zjQ9LTRg">Progress in Disaster Science.</a> <figure><img width="499" height="397" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd85d9c7e80680e092e3bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After analysing remote sensing data, the researchers conclude that although the number of landslides had started falling after 2015, there has been an uptick since 2017 possibly due to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/dozers-and-nepals-development/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/dozers-and-nepals-development/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615627463313000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEh-pzzDl7j405T7swUxTKR34tVPg">proliferation of rural road construction</a> around the time of the elections. (See graph, above.) Gyawali suggests that a solution could be better-planned infrastructure and settlements that take into account known hazards. As the Chamoli flood showed, expensive hydroelectric projects located closer to the high mountains are more at risk. He suggests investing in smaller hydropower plants in side tributaries rather than the main stem of major Himalayan rivers to mitigate the danger, and to spread the risk. However, most of Nepal’s planned large hydropower projects are on rivers like the Tamor, Arun, Dudh Kosi, Bhote Kosi and Budi Gandaki. The Himalaya is a young and unstable mountain range that is battered by a heavy monsoon three months a year. Into this high-risk zone, there is now the added threat of climate-induced disasters. Says Gyawali: “We cannot completely remove these disasters from happening, but we can try to understand them and plan to minimise the risk.”

Non-climate cause of Nanda Devi flood

<figure><img width="1400" height="1050" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108111152/636a35029c7e80680e048288jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>PHOTO: KIRAN NEPAL</figcaption></figure>The devastating storm that ravaged Bara and Parsa districts on Sunday night leaving at least 30 people dead and hundreds injured now looks certain to have been a tornado. Although not as common here as in the plains states of mid-western US, tornadoes have been known to occur during the pre-monsoon season in Bangladesh and parts of coastal India.Meteorologists were initially reluctant to confirm that this week’s disaster was caused by a tornado because they were almost unheard of in the Nepal Tarai. However, the fact that elderly people in the plains have in their Maithili and Hindi vocabulary a word for tornado (chakrawat) means that they do occur.The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has come under a lot of criticism this week for not being able to forecast this extreme weather event. While storms, rain, and high winds can be forecast, tornadoes are notoriously difficult to predict, and it is next to impossible to pinpoint where they will touch down.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Disastrous Management in Nepal</a>Even in the United States, which is hit by more than 1,000 tornadoes a year, there are only general warnings about possibilities of these twisters, although computer modeling allows more accurate forecasting. Still, the only specific warning people get is when they can actually see a tornado approaching with its ominous funnel. Homes and businesses along America’s ‘Tornado Alley’ in states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of Texas and Colorado are mandatorily required to have shelters since wind speeds of up to 450 km/h inside a tornado can rip everything apart.As survivors picked up the pieces of their lives this week in Pheta village of Bara, scientists from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) saw the clear footprint of a tornado: a long and narrow path of destruction, houses and walls built with masonry lay demolished, trucks and buses had been thrown about, mighty trees were uprooted – but a few metres away palm trees still stood with fronds intact and thatch homes were unscathed.Photographs taken by passengers on planes circling over Simara while waiting to land at Kathmandu airport show continuous lightning flashes inside a supercell soaring above Central Nepal with the tops of the cumulonimbus reaching more than 10,000m. Right below these planes, the conditions were getting ripe for the twister to form.Eyewitnesses describe a frightening storm that hit at dinner time, with the brunt of the damage confined to a 50m wide trail of destruction along a few kilometres towards Birganj. As our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">coverage of the disaster in this edition </a>explains, the tornado would been difficult to predict even with the most sophisticated equipment. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/groound-zero-in-pheta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ground Zero in Pheta</a>, Kiran NepalNowcasting is possible, but not for a specific locale or an exact time. The DHM has installed a Doppler radar in Surkhet, and two more are going to be set up in Palpa and Udaypur to cover the entire country. Data from these can be fed into modeling software that can detect rotating updrafts inside supercells, make predictions for rain and wind, and also gauge the possibility of twisters striking. However, even if these radars had been operational and modeling software already available, it would have been impossible to forecast a tornado hitting a localised cluster of villages in the central plains of Nepal at a specific time. And even if the warning had gone out, there would not be enough time to respond, and in the absence of underground shelters, there would still have been high casualties.For us in Nepal, therefore, there is only one thing to do: spread awareness and be prepared for more tornadoes in future as the intensity of storms increase with climate change. Extreme weather events like wind storms, flash floods, cloud bursts, glacial lake outburst floods, droughts and erratic monsoons are the new normal, and we have to improve forecasting and preparedness.Even before the 2015 earthquake, the government had been working on a Disaster Management Act. It was delayed by geological and political earthquakes, but a bill to that effect is finally going to Parliament soon. The National Reconstruction Authority should be expanded into a Disaster Management Authority that can upgrade multi-disaster preparedness, and have systems in place for rapid search and rescue, relief and rehabilitation.Bara was the first major disaster to hit Nepal since the federal constitution went into effect, and we could see that the first responders were from the Wards and Municpalities of Province 2 where the tornado struck. Central coordination local response would be the way forward in preparing for disasters to come. It is not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha Rai10 years  ago this weekWhy do these lines from an editorial in Nepali Times #445 of 3-9 April 2009 sound strangely familiar ten years later? We have the unenviable task of trying to wake up rulers pretending to be asleep.It is now only a question of time before dashed hopes turn into spontaneous outbursts of frustration. There were high expectations, even euphoria, when the Maoists came to power seven months ago that their revolutionary zeal would bring a new style and efficiency to the government.Most Nepalis expected that the constitution-drafting process would be messy and fraught with delays, but they were certain their lives would improve. Nobody expects miracles from Dahal and his fellow travellers. But they need to prove that they are doing more than just blaming everyone else, or at least once a week threaten to overthrow a government they themselves lead.

glacial-outburst

Sikkim’s warning to Nepal

Trekking in the time of climate change

Think globally in Glasgow, and act locally

Non-climate cause of Nanda Devi flood

The new normal