Just as Nepal prepares to showcase business opportunities at the Nepal Investment Summit 2024 this week, the government seems to be doing its utmost to dissuade international stakeholders. A combination of red tape, corruption and geopolitics is sending the wrong message at the wrong time to potential investors, industry sources say. Several Chinese companies that had been waiting to develop energy projects in Nepal have been left hanging in limbo due to geopolitical pressure. The Chinese company <a href="https://en.risenenergy.com/">Risen Energy</a> was ready to sign a project development agreement (PDA) for Nepal’s biggest solar electricity plant at the Summit this week, but the $190 million project is on hold for unspecified reasons. The Investment Board Nepal (IBN) which is organising the Summit was itself involved in negotiations with Risen’s subsidiary, Risen Energy Singapore JV for the <a href="https://www.risinenergy.com/news/nepals-largest-solar-energy-project-to-be-established-by-a-spv-of-singapore-based-risen-energy-co-ltd/">grid connected photovoltaic generation system</a>.&nbsp; The board’s spokesperson Pradyumna Upadhyay said the agreement was delayed because “final preparations are not complete, and negotiations are ongoing”. But sources in the government revealed there was pressure from India not to go ahead with the agreement because the two solar array sites were close to the southern border. Risen’s proposal was to install two 125MW solar generation plants in Banke and Kapilvastu districts in the Tarai. The installation would store 20MW each of daytime generation to be transmitted during the morning and evening peak hours. “The main reason it is stuck is because of Indian objections about a Chinese project so close to the Indian border,” the source told Nepali Times.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240428070432_9df0424d873f99aa110e7cfc9ea6c9add335558c6572b1524085b2f94e7ed779.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240428070432_9df0424d873f99aa110e7cfc9ea6c9add335558c6572b1524085b2f94e7ed779" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1535" loading="lazy" alt="Solar panels"> </figure>  The CEO of IBN Sushil Bhatta and Wang Qiyang of Risen Energy Singapore JV signed an agreement three years ago to carry out a detailed feasibility study report, which was delayed due to the pandemic. The Department of Electricity Development had even issued a survey license.&nbsp; Under the agreement, the entire capital investment for the project would have been from Risen which is registered as a public limited company at the Shenzhen Stock Market.&nbsp; The company makes its own photovoltaic panels which is what made the project feasible. And Risen was the main contractor in the Nepal Electricity Authority’s 25MW solar generation plant in Devighat of Nuwakot which is already in operation.&nbsp; Indeed, despite being a Chinese company, Risen in 2020 completed a 110MW <a href="https://en.risenenergy.com/product/case_detail?cid=44">solar electricity generation system in India</a> and other investments in Mexico and Kazakhstan. It is also a global supplier of solar energy components. To be sure, both of Nepal’s giant neighbours have geopolitical sensitivities about water and energy projects in Nepal. In 2018, IBN had given a go-ahead to the European company Dolma Fund Management to survey a 150MW solar electricity generation project in Mustang near the Chinese border.&nbsp; Dolma completed its preparations and was ready to launch when Industry Minister Matrika Yadav wrote to IBN to cancel the Dolma agreement. The minister was said at the time to have acted on Chinese pressure. “It is not easy to push foreign investment in Nepal there are many hurdles to cross,” says Risen’s assistant manager in Nepal Dixita Shahi. “Negotiations are going on, and the project will move ahead in future.” This is not the first time that a Chinese investor in the energy sector has faced problems in Nepal. IBN had signed up with a Chinese contractor to build the 762MW Tamor Project in eastern Nepal that was agreed on during president Xi Jinping’s visit to Nepal in 2019.&nbsp; By the government pulled out of the export-oriented project because India has said it will not buy power from projects in which the Chinese are involved. Tamor is now likely going to India’s state-owned <a href="https://sjvn.nic.in/">Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam</a>, which is building a series of plants on the adjoining Arun River that will generate a total of 2,000MW.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240428070416_dc72bb190f0775234a50525c7a5fa998620876838056c9adb819b61b22d60ad0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240428070416_dc72bb190f0775234a50525c7a5fa998620876838056c9adb819b61b22d60ad0" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="467" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Investment Summit"> </figure>  Indeed, Indian companies are currently involved in building six hydropower projects worth nearly 5,000MW on the Arun, Seti and Karnali basins. Not only is India pressuring Nepal to cancel projects with Chinese investment, it is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/geopolitics-of-nepal-s-rivers">not buying electricity from existing plants</a> that have Chinese involvement. For example, even though the 460MW Upper Tama Kosi project was built with Nepal’s own investment, India will not buy power sourced from it because Chinese contractors were involved in the construction. Although Nepal’s power generation is pooled in the grid, India is buying only 690MW of power that it regards as ‘China-free’. Nepal’s agreement to export only 50MW of power to Bangladesh is also stuck because it would have to use Indian transmission lines.

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Nepal’s China-India love-triangle impacts investment

For Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal the past week has been eventful in more ways than one. His Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane’s troubles is shaking the coalition, and there are rumours of the NC and the UML in talks. By-elections in Ilam and Bajhang are set to become a referendum on legacy parties.&nbsp;
In the midst of all this, there was the overnight state visit of the emir of Qatar which was so epic the government declared a national holiday. Qatar and Nepal signed a commerce agreement, and to sweeten the deal the emir was gifted two elephants.&nbsp;
The Qatari visit set the stage for the third Nepal Investment Summit on 28-29 April that will showcase 150 projects for potential investors, including schemes for hydropower, transport, tourism, and agriculture.
Previous investment summits in 2017 and 2019 pledged $13.5 billion and $17 billion respectively, of which not much ever materialised. This time, the investment climate is worse because of political instability, too few laws, and too much red tape. &nbsp;
“The state of Nepal’s economy, combined with bureaucratic hurdles and the challenges faced by foreign investors in land and resource acquisition, has made attracting FDI difficult,” says Pushkar Bajracharya, formerly of &nbsp;the National Planning Commission.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/nepal-looks-at-alternative-investments">Nepal looks at alternative investments</a>, Siddhant Raj Pandey
The same woes from the last two investment summits persist. Nepal has had three coalition governments in the last two years, banks are flush with cash because no one is borrowing, &nbsp;and there is a mass exodus of skilled Nepalis.&nbsp;
“Lack of political stability results in policy instability,” explains economist Posh Raj Pandey. “This is why Nepal’s FDI has not lived up to commitments. Potential investors have decided that internal risk factors outweigh any business opportunities.”&nbsp;
Everyone went to sleep after the last investment summit, and there was little preparation for this hurriedly planned one. Nepal’s private sector has long urged the government to amend laws to improve the investment climate. The government did amend nine out of dozens of laws, but through ordinance on Tuesday. &nbsp;
“What kind of message are we sending to internationals when we amend laws through ordinance rather than Parliament?" asks Pandey. “Amendment will not inspire confidence unless they are put into practice, which we historically have not done.”
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
While some experts think ordinances speed things up, they admit most legal changes brought to address Nepal's investment environment have been ad hoc and limited to paper.
Forget foreign investors, even domestic businesses face obstacles and corruption. Nepal’s internet service providers (ISPs) and the Nepal Telecommunication Authority are on the warpath.&nbsp;
ISPs have been unable to pay Indian firms that provide &nbsp;bandwidth after the government refused to provide them with INR, citing unpaid royalties and taxes.
Such stonewalling is present in just about every sector, dissuading investors in IT, banking and the service industry. Most investors are in natural resource extraction, which has little value added.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
This time the government is &nbsp;giving investors a shopping list that includes 18 hydropower projects and 19 transport schemes.&nbsp;
“While hydropower may create short-term jobs, efficiency-seeking investment in the manufacturing, agricultural, and other sectors will create more long-term opportunities for Nepalis, and will be in our best interest,” says Pandey. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Although the summit will have attendees from over 50 countries, most potential investors are from India and China.
“Current investment summits seem to be guided by India and China’s vested interest in Nepal rather than the market and economic possibilities here,” notes Bajracharya. However, Nepal can leverage its proximity to hitch its wagons to these two giant locomotives.&nbsp;
Adds Bajracharya “Our long-term prospects look good, because India and China are set to overtake the US as the world's biggest economies over the next few years, which will attract investors from elsewhere. Our immediate goal must be to first create a conducive investment climate. After that, investments will come.” &nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">Killing investment in Nepal in 10 easy steps</a>, Dibesh Karmacharya

Shristi Karki

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Why invest in Nepal?

In the run-up to the third Nepal Investment Summit this weekend, there have been seminars, conferences and workshops where the discourse has revolved around the economy and the investment climate.
The consensus that Nepal needs foreign direct investments (FDI) to grow was repeated, and the familiar litany of reasons about why it has not been able to was discussed.&nbsp;
Policy advocates and regulators have understood that the lack of urgency is compounded by procedural inconsistencies, on top of the already deficient investment environment in the country.
It is a welcome change from what used to be flippantly accepting matters as given. There now seems to be a sense of urgency, with procedural inconsistencies and lack of harmonisation between various Acts and regulations openly discussed.&nbsp;
Government stakeholders also appear more willing to learn and attempt to be part of the solution. Whatever policy changes have been introduced in the past have been piecemeal and address the few rather than the entire industry. This left dual regulatory approaches aimed at similar players.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">Killing investment in Nepal in 10 easy steps</a>, Dibesh Karmacharya
This time, unlike in the past two Summits, the government seems to be committed to amending 9 Acts, a positive step towards showing commitment to change. However, the deadline to do so during the winter session of Parliament is over. The option mooted has been to have it passed through ordinance, a lesser appealing step; albeit, a positive one moving forward.&nbsp;
To attract FDI in a competitive global market means that Nepal has to demonstrate that it is serious about bringing in investments with a more consultative and collaborative approach with investors. A departure from procedural to a result-oriented focus is needed.&nbsp;
To put issues in perspective, Nepal needs US$20 billion in investments to meet the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets by 2030. If net-zero decarbonisation targets are to be met by 2045, another US$7 billion will be required annually.&nbsp;
Looking at our investment history and poor government capital expenditure, the gap is long and wide. In fiscal year 2022-23 Nepal booked a lamentable ~$59 million in FDI (equity). Nepal is in fact the lowest market in South Asia for FDI with 0.3% of the regional average.&nbsp;
What is it that we can do to fill the gap?&nbsp;
First, we need to move away from the notion that Nepal only needs large investments. This has proven to be a mistake, and time series data have proven that smaller investments, in aggregate, make a larger impact on economies.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
We talk about an ‘enabling environment’ but without the right tools. We place restrictions on interest on debt ceiling (SOFR +5.5), without risk premium adjustments, we do not have an active secondary market for bond trading, nor do we have a yield curve, an integral part of the bond market, which is inhibiting us from tapping into the trillion dollar green bond market.&nbsp;
In order to attract green financing, Nepal needs to develop its bond market. Sovereign risk rating has been mooted and was expected to be operationalised before the Investment Summit.&nbsp;
However, to be rated in an adverse economic environment could further deteriorate investment potential due to a lesser-than-expected rating.&nbsp;
Hedging is another instrument that needs further research on. A commercial bank last year showcased the first risk-hedging mechanism for an investment of $8 million. This can be the beginning to expand on its modality. &nbsp;
Subordinated debt instruments have been introduced, but on a special nod basis, this now needs to be institutionalised as it is the most applicable form of investment after equity in a market that has volatile forex reserves.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment">Invest in investment</a>, Nepali Times
Viability Gap Funding has been introduced by multilateral development agencies implemented in solar installations. It is a tool to incentivise the private sector to invest in projects that are not financially lucrative initially, but have potential for profitability in the long run. This needs to be scaled up and replicated in sectors like infrastructure, where returns may not be immediate.
Moving forward, to attract FDI, Nepal needs to tap into the funds that are available for the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and climate change. Alternative investments such as Private Equity Venture Capital (PEVC) have been around in a structured manner in Nepal for nearly a decade now.
These funds have blended finance components and have attracted climate funding as well. PEVC is a new asset class and can address the issues of penetrating into SME financing by incorporating environment, social and governance issues into their investment process.&nbsp;
SMEs are the backbone of any economy, PEVC comes with the ability not only to scale up the enterprise with risk capital, but with the ability to bring technical knowhow to enhance not only the enterprise but also the entrepreneur.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/success-in-nepal-means-not-having-to-work">Success in Nepal means not having to work</a>, Anil Chitrakar
A differentiator from all other forms of financing available till date in Nepal. Blended finance is a way of de-risking investments, especially in frontier markets. Business Oxygen (BO2) is an example of blended finance with subordinated debt investments of IFC (World Bank Group) taking the lead and Climate Investment Funds along with FCDO as co-investors.&nbsp;
On a larger scale, the 216MW Upper Trisuli 1 is another example of blended finance with IFC, a Korean consortium and local investments. So far, we see that development finance Institutions have been taking the lead in Nepal as their risk appetite is greater than commercial investors and they are eager to help develop the financial markets.&nbsp;
In order to be sustainable, we need to step on this and attract commercial capital from all over the world. To do this there has to be political will to make that pivot.&nbsp;
Instead of being a means to an end, the two previous Investment Summits turned out to be intermittent and cosmetic, providing hardly any results. The third one’s success will depend on how the event will be implemented as a platform for continuous marketing for the country and facilitation for investors in future.&nbsp;
Nepal has outdone many countries in its macro-economic indicators, with sound forex reserves and a stellar history of debt payments to its creditors. This story needs to be propagated along with the drive for change to attract potential investors.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/alternative-investments-to-attract-fdi">Alternative investments to attract FDI</a>, Siddhant Raj Pandey

Siddhant Raj Pandey

Nepal looks at alternative investments

Nepal is not poor, it is just poorly governed. At no time has this been more true than today.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/remittances-up-and-up">A spurt in remittances</a> and a slowdown in imports has meant that Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves have hit an all-time high of $14 billion. Just in the past seven months, diaspora dollars totalled $6.35 billion – a 21.6% increase over the same period last year. The trade deficit has declined, and the balance of payments situation is improving.
So why are we not celebrating? The problem is that while the macroeconomy is on a firm footing, the same statistics also point to a deep malaise within. Imports are down because purchasing power has declined, and banks are not lending, this means government revenue has also fallen drastically. Most remittance money is spent on household expenditure, much of it again to pay for imports.&nbsp;
All this means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/killing-investment-in-nepal-in-10-easy-steps">investment</a> fell by 11% in 2023 after growing by nearly 4% the year before. Tighter financing conditions post-Covid and global factors following the Ukraine war have impacted both public and private investment.&nbsp;
“Nepal’s economy grew at 1.9% fiscal year 2023. Is that too low? Yes, very low. Are we in an economic crisis? No. But we are stuck in a situation where aggregate demand is low. Nepal is in a crisis of low economic growth,” says economist Sameer Khatiwada.
Indeed, banks have money to lend and borrowing rates have gone down, but there is no demand from the private sector because a large chunk of the middle class has<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/brain-drain-into-brain-gain"> left the country</a>.
And that is the irony: Nepalis are migrating abroad in droves, but fewer consumers back home means less economic activity, which in turn pushes more people out. Nearly a million young Nepalis left for jobs and study overseas last year. More than 400,000 left on work permits in the first seven months of this fiscal year. Some 3,000 leave every day.
The economy could pick up in 2024 and 2025, with increased demand, increased <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/blueprint-for-nepal-india-electricity-trade">hydropower</a> output, and rising tourist arrivals. But sustaining growth year-on-year relying solely on remittance and hydropower is not possible.&nbsp;
Remittances were the main reason for poverty reduction, raising living standards, improving access to health, nutrition and education. Nepal is set to graduate from LDC status by 2025.
Nepal’s economy is suffering a form of ‘Dutch Disease’ where high income from one source paradoxically keeps other sectors of the economy down. Remittance growth has increased savings, but there is nowhere to invest it except to speculate on the real estate bubble, which has burst.&nbsp;
Economist Khatiwada says we have to go beyond the symptoms to the disease: “Nepal is caught in a trap of low productive capacity, lack of competitiveness, lack of foreign investment and lack of business dynamism.”
So, what is the way out? Experts recommend more competition in the private sector and promoting industrialisation by leveraging areas where Nepal has a comparative advantage like the service sector, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/it-is-it">information technology</a> and exports of high-value niche products.&nbsp;
“We were complaining when our foreign exchange reserves were low, and now we are complaining when reserves hit the roof. Our biggest problem is that we are sitting on all that money instead of investing it,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum.&nbsp;
He adds: “We have to allow Nepali companies to invest outside, and reap the low-hanging fruits like energy and ICT. Nepal exported $900 million worth of software last year.”&nbsp;
If there was some hope the change in the coalition government last week would bring solutions, those have fizzled. Finance Minister Barsaman Pun is Prime Minister Dahal’s left-hand man and Dahal’s disagreement with former coalition partner Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress to sack its finance minister Prakash Sharan Mahat was one reason behind the Maoists switching to the UML.
Finance Minister Pun is already under a cloud for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/skeletons-in-the-cabinet-k5x6py1v">his alleged involvement with a gold smuggling ring</a>, and he has reportedly been brought in with the express purpose of passing a budget that would be favourable to cronies. There are indications he will raise taxes on certain brands of electric vehicles, ostensibly to increase government revenue.&nbsp;
With the new government’s priorities so centred on personal and partisan gain, there is little time to solve the other crisis: underspending of the development budget. There is money for infrastructure and service delivery, we just cannot seem to spend it. Only 25% of the annual development budget has been spent in the past seven months of this fiscal year.
Delays in infrastructure and connectivity have further undermined economic growth and job creation.&nbsp;
Underspending is directly related to corruption. Public procurement is lubricated by kickbacks, and delays are caused by rival cronies with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/need-and-greed">political patronage</a>. The focus is on low-cost bidder and not on the technical quality of bids. Contractors abandon half-finished projects by bribing officials.&nbsp;
In short, Nepal’s crisis of low economic activity is directly related to governance failure and lack of accountability of high elected officials. The new coalition has a chance to set things right at the third Nepal Investment Summit on 28-29 April in Kathmandu. But experts do not pin much hope on it. &nbsp;
“No matter how many laws and regulations we revise to make doing business easier in Nepal, unless we have better infrastructure we will not be able to attract foreign investors to Nepal. Second, soft infrastructure such as skills and quality of the workforce is also a critical ‘pull’ factor,” says Khatiwada.&nbsp;
Shakya takes a broader view: “It all really comes down to our mindset. We think of Nepal as a small, poor country but it is a potential $100 billion economy. We must have that imagination, must take risks, reform how we do business, break away from commission-oriented, rent-seeking approach.”

Sonia Awale

Poor cash-rich Nepal

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd90a9c7e80680e092e77jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="497"/>Almost two decades have passed since the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7600#.YFb5li2B3-Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Income Tax Act</a> came into effect in Nepal. But complications abound for taxpayers, even if they have paid their taxes on time and have a legitimate claim to overpaid tax refund.The Act provides for taxpayers who register more than the liable tax amount to be refunded by the government. The taxpayer is supposed to receive the refund amount within 60 days of application.However, barring exceptional cases, this rarely happens. The contradiction in implementation is an interesting one—a government that fines <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11068#.YFb5ri2B3-Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the taxpayer</a> for delayed tax payment itself does not pay back the refund.When approached on the matter, a government officer responded by saying that it is not possible to refund from the ongoing fiscal year's budget, and thus the amount could only be refunded in the upcoming year.This is a common rhetoric heard in the tax offices, whenever a taxpayer approaches the government for a refund, even if the request is made within the stipulated 60 days.The Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce Industries (FNCCI) tax expert and entrepreneur, Ashok Kumar Todi says, “It is very, very difficult to get a refund. Actually, it is almost impossible.”The Income Tax Act 2058 underlines that <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6342#.YFb5lC2B3-Y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the taxpayer</a> must pay the due amount for the running year based on estimates within the Nepali months of Poush (December-January), Chaitra (March-April) and Asar (June-July). If the total estimated amount is 100% then the taxpayer has to pay 40% in advance in the month of Chaitra and the remaining 30% in the month of Asar.In addition, if the paid tax based on an estimate is less than the actual amount, then the taxpayer is liable to be fined. If such tax is paid on installment in theory, and if it so happens that the estimate is greater than actual, then the over-paid amount should be refunded easily.Income Tax Act Clause 113 and Income Tax Rules number 36, both say that the tax must be refunded. However, in practice, the overpaid tax amount is being withheld by the tax officers, without any explanation.“The overpaid tax amount must be refunded, but in practice, it is not happening,” confirms tax expert Bhavanath Dahal who says that Gyanendra Shah while still king of Nepal had received a refund for overpaid taxes for his Soaltee Hotel— but only after it was vetted by the Cabinet. There are a few other exceptions in which the taxpayers got their overpaid tax refunded, but the processes were mostly cumbersome.Tax expert and entrepreneur Todi says that the tax administration should return the overpaid tax at least within the current year. However, in practice, the overpaid tax is passed on the next fiscal year under the heading of ‘government reserve’.This process repeats itself year after year, leading to the overpaid tax amount being transferred to the next fiscal year on a continuous basis—at the cost of entrepreneurs.“We pay taxes by taking loan from banks, and the overpaid tax amount just gets accumulated in the government reserve fund. It is impossible to get a refund,” ays a businessman who requested anonymity.A high level Tax System Review Commission six years ago recommended improvement in the refund process, but it was never enforced. Internal Revenue Department (IRD) officers themselves admit that returning the income tax is very difficult.IRD spokesperson Arjun Dhakal says the tax amount overpaid by the taxpayer cannot be directly paid back by the IRD itself as the applications are forwarded to the Finance ministry.“The process to get the overpaid income tax back is a very lengthy and difficult one and as a result, there are very few instances of taxes actually being refunded,” he admits.Entrepreneurs say that the total amount that the government owes to taxpayers as overpaid tax refund has now accumulated to astronomical amounts. Even IRD Tax Refund Department director Devnarayan Poudel has no idea how much it is.The IRD has introduced a new process to ease the refund of overpaid taxes, regarding which a circular has been sent to the tax office, but entrepreneur Todi is skeptical.According to law, if the tax officer makes an overestimate of the tax to be paid then the taxpayer can go to the Revenue Judiciary of Nepal and the taxpayer will get back the amount overpaid. But that is only in paper.Anyone choosing the path of litigation ends up losing even more. In order to process the litigation for administrative review, the overpaid tax payer has to deposit one-fourth of the disputed amount. If the taxpayer is still not happy with the administrative review, one can deposit 50% of the disputed amount and file a lawsuit to the Revenue Judiciary for further review.The caveat however, is that it may take several years before a settlement is reached by the Revenue Judiciary. As a result, a large amount of taxpayer’s deposit is accumulated in the government reserves.Even if the court rules in favour of the taxpayer, by the time the decision comes through, the taxpayer would have been seriously overburdened with the loan and interest. On the other hand, if the taxpayer loses the lawsuit, the government will charge the individual or the firm, an interest on the disputed amount since the beginning or the initial date of the filing of the lawsuit and the disputed amount will not be deducted.“In some cases, even if the taxpayer has won, the government has refused to return the disputed amount along with interest,” says Arun Raut, a tax expert.FNCCI Chair Shekhar Golcha, however, says that even though the process of getting back overpaid taxes is difficult, it is not impossible. According to him, since the overpaid tax amount from the previous year is adjusted in the tax payable the next year, it is automatically sorted out.He says that last fiscal year the total claim amount for overpaid tax refund was Rs6.67 billion, but the IRD refunded only 57% of that amount. In the earlier fiscal year the amount to be refunded was Rs3 billion of which Rs2.26 billion was refunded.Even so, tax expert Dahal says the non-refund has affected Nepal’s business environment. He says: “It is the right of the taxpayer to get a refund of his overpaid taxes. But the problem is not limited to this. It is a systemic problem.”

Taxing process of fund reclaiming in Nepal

<figure><img width="620" height="366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7bc9c7e80680e092dfdjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Aside from second-guessing what will happen in the restored Parliament on Sunday, the major past-time of urban Nepalis these days is to speculate about the country’s violatile stock market.Dring the past six months, the <a href="http://www.nepalstock.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali Stock Market (NEPSE)</a> has soared, which immediately begs the question: is a fall imminent?The NEPSE Index is at a record high market capitalisation, which is the total value of shares listed in the stock market. Daily turnovers have started crossing the Rs10 billion mark, invetors seem to be raking it in.All this has happened at a time when the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/instability-to-cost-nepal-dear-in-2021/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economy is being battered by the impact of the pandemic</a>, which has led to heated debates over whether the market is in a bubble and likely to crash, bringing ordinate ionvestors down with it.  Current highs are the combination of several factors:<ul><li>Low interest rate (see figure 1)</li><li>High liquidity in the banking system</li><li>Dematerialisation (conversion of physical certificates to electronic units) of shares</li><li>Restrictionof ‘kitta-kaat’ in real estate</li><li>Fear of missing out (FOMO)</li></ul>Low share prices between 2017-2019 have been attributed to the appointment of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Yubraj Khatiwada as finance minister</a>. He famously (or infamously for investors) once remarked that investing in stocks was “not productive”. <figure><img width="953" height="560" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7bd9c7e80680e092dfejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>One factor that has gone relatively unnoticed but has been a game-changer is the advent of ‘online trading’. The possibility to make transactions through the online banking system has ushered in a new breed of investors. Online trading has made the Nepali stock market easily accessible to the public, who can now trade from their living room instead of going to a broker office or bank to make a payment.This trend was starting to be reflected in the data before Covid-19 gripped the country (figure 2). From October 2019 to February 2020, the number of monthly share transactions doubled from an average of 200,000 to 400,000, which pushed the NEPSE Index to the 1,600s, despite relatively higher interest rate hovering above 11%. <figure><img width="961" height="541" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7bf9c7e80680e092dffjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Following Covid-19 restrictions, the number of transactions further increased and reached a whopping 1.1 million per month in recent months. This reflects the unprecedented entry of retail investors who, with a click of a mouse, can invest money that otherwise would be sitting idle, earning savings account interest rates. This increased participation and diversification of the investor base is also reflected by the data on stock market penetration. DEMAT accounts have increased from 800,000 in mid-July 2017 to 1.4 million in mid-July 2019, and is currently estimated at 2.5 million -- about 8% of Nepal’s total population. More than 1.5 million Nepalis applied for the recent IPO of an infrastructure finance company. Compare this number with India, where around 2% of the country’s population invest in the stock market, while in China this number is estimated to be around 7%. But, online trading also brings a host of new challenges. Asymmetric information, poor advisory services and buying shares based on rumours are big concerns. Investors can lose money in the share market if they overpaid for stock or if their investment horizon is not long enough. However, by not investing they can also ‘lose’ potential gains. So, investors need to understand and be aware of cognitive biases that limit investing success. It is as much about human psychology as it is about finance and economics. The importance of diversifying across different companies and sectors, having a long-term investment horizon and personal finance management are even more important these days, but these are severely lacking in Nepal. An investor’s main motto always has to be: buy a diversified set of companies, invest regularly, keep track of the company’s financials and hold for a long period of time. Crucial reforms now await Nepal’s stock market, these can include: <ul><li>Increased participation of companies in manufacturing, agribusiness, etc</li> <li>Strong regulation on insider trading</li> <li>Better trade settlement systems</li> <li>Increasing the limitation of 50 brokers</li> <li>Creation of index funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs)</li> </ul>The NEPSE Index jumped more than 100% in the past year. You could argue that its current level is a bit high, but just because it has gone up by 100% it does not mean that it is overvalued, and vice versa. The cumulative annual growth rate of the NEPSE between 2001 and 2021 is around 12%, which is in line with the 10% return of the S&amp;P 500 (which tracks 500 of the largest US companies) in the same period. During these 20 years, there have also been periods where the NEPSE fell as much as 75% (between August 2008 and June 2011) and soared over 500% (between June 2011 to July 2016). Stock markets are cyclical by nature. Corrections, and subsequent rises, are bound to happen. In this apparently chaotic environment of ups and downs, one thing is here to stay: a fundamental shift and dynamism thanks to a new breed of investors trading online. This will have short-term disruptions, but it is likely to stabilise the Nepali capital market for years to come. Santosh Pokharel, CFA works in development sector. Sudyumna Dahal is Doctoral candidate at CAMA, <a href="https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/">Australian National University.</a>

Despite politics, Nepal’s stock market is bullish

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1539c7e80680e083e40jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1001"/><figcaption>Photo: MANISH PAUDEL</figcaption></figure>Nepal has only slightly progressed in the annual overall prosperity rankings this year, but rose 15 steps over the last decade with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/security-reduces-poverty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">substantial improvement in security</a> and social capital. Worldwide, global prosperity was at its highest ever level when Covid-19 struck.The London-based Legatum Institute’s 2020 Prosperity Index released on Tuesday analyses 167 countries around the world on 12 measures in three broad metrics: inclusive societies, open economics and empowered people.With an overall ranking of 114, Nepal still maintains its position of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-rises-in-prosperity-index/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">22nd poorest out of the 29 countries in Asia-Pacific</a>. It has made the most dramatic progress over the last decade in prosperity measures such as safety and security (scoring from 47.2 to 68.5, a jump of 66 points in the global ranking) and social capital (37.5 to 50.5, up 59 position).<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/its-a-rich-mans-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">It's a rich man's world</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">28.6%</a>, EditorialBut this is countered by the fact that there was little to no improvement in the country’s investment environment and enterprise condition, highlighting Nepal’s less than friendly investment climate, further proving that the openness of the economy has stagnated. Nepal’s enterprise condition has fallen by 22 points in the global ranking, from 100th to 122th in the world and 25th in South Asia.There were also minimal gains in economic quality and governance, largely owing to the local elections in 2017, the first one in two decades that led to some grassroots development and accountability in the recent years.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be1589c7e80680e083e41jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1654" height="612"><figcaption>Source: THE LEGATUM INSTITUTE</figcaption></figure>As expected there was some healthy development in market access and infrastructure, health, education and living condition of Nepalis but keeping up with the regional trend, Nepal dropped in personal freedom and natural environment measures. While not a major loss in terms of points, these are significant indicators of the changing times.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's great income divide</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mind the gap</a>, EditorialPrior to the pandemic, prosperity stood at a record high, with 147 out of 167 countries seeing prosperity rise over the last decade, driven by improved health, education, and living conditions, and more open economies. However, weaker personal freedom and deteriorating governance are holding back further improvements in prosperity.In fact, the improvement seen in the last 12 months had not kept pace with the progress of the previous two years, as Asia-Pacific and Western Europe stalled and North America deteriorated slightly. In addition, stagnating personal freedom and governance around the world is holding back further improvement in prosperity.“There is never a good time for a worldwide health crisis, but if there has to be one, the progress that has been made over the last decade provides emerging nations with a better context in which to tackle it. But the Western world must beware the trap of falling into a mindset of an overdeveloped society, vulnerable to entitlement and complacency,” says CEO of the Legatum Institute Philippa Stroud.She adds: “Never has it been more important for leaders to recognise the holistic nature of prosperity and make strategic choices to further build inclusive societies and more open economies, and to improve the lived experience of all citizens.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181120/636be15b9c7e80680e083e42jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1352" height="1092"><figcaption>Source: THE LEGATUM INSTITUTE</figcaption></figure>The Index also shows that further growth in global prosperity is being held back by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lockdown-crackdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">stagnating personal freedom and governance</a>. Globally 121 countries had seen a decline in the freedom to speak and access information and 116 had seen a reduction in the freedom to assemble and associate over the past 10 years, and political accountability and executive constraints – which measures the checks and balances on elected governments and their officials – had both weakened.This deterioration is even <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/south-asia-tightening-press-controls-amidst-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more pronounced in the post Covid era</a> where government across the world have tried to downplay their inability to control the pandemic and rather undermined it in multiple ways, including by withholding vital information and by creating <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covid-19-shrinks-civic-space/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">roadblocks for journalists reporting from the frontlines</a>.Decisions that build prosperity and respect freedom and responsibility is crucial to lead world through Covid, says the Legatum Institute urging the leaders globally to hold firm to a holistic view of prosperity and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/journalism-is-not-a-crime/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the core principles of freedom and responsibility</a> as they respond to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.Says Stephen Brien, Director of Policy at the Legatum Institute: “Prosperity is underpinned by an inclusive society, with a strong social contract that protects the fundamental liberties and security of every individual. It is driven by an open economy that harnesses ideas and talent to create sustainable pathways out of poverty. And it is built by empowered people, who play their part in creating a society that promotes wellbeing.”

Nepal stalls in Prosperity Index

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba76b9c7e80680e073781jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: AJAYA UPADHAYAYA</figcaption></figure>As serious as the rapid spread in Nepal of the novel coronavirus looks, even more frightening is what the lockdown meant to prevent it will do to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-economy-already-weak-takes-direct-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMB3uRxLtXPB1J9V0PQdJF-f6E6w">country’s economy</a>. The health impact of the virus may pale in comparison to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-plans-to-revive-economy-hit-by-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647267000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHZ73Q3ug57-h3IKB7NUBfuqD8LyQ">long-term damage</a> to the country from a prolonged lockdown that enters its sixth month today.It is difficult to make predictions on how Nepal’s economy will fare till the end of the year because that will depend on how the virus behaves. But all indications are of that SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay, and that it will resurface with added virulence in winter.On 21 July when Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada triumphantly announced that the pandemic in Nepal had peaked, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEfmOWpPyfs0PHIzdD4yHmecUC6hg">lockdown had been lifted</a>, traders, businesses and industries were cautiously optimistic. But since then there has been a surge, with cases and fatalities more than doubling in the past three weeks.Aside from essential food and other items, business transactions are down by more than half since 24 March when the restrictions were first announced. Even when the lockdown was eased last month, the people’s purchasing capacity had gone down and businesses did not really pick up.The Rastra Bank estimates that it will take at least nine months after the lockdown is fully lifted for the economy to come back to previous levels. This means Nepal is not going to see a recovery this fiscal year. The central bank says 22.5% of those employed in the country have lost their jobs in the past five months of lockdown.The central bank expects Nepal’s economic growth rate to plunge from 6.9% last year to less than 1% this year. But the World Bank is even more pessimistic, it says the growth rate may even go into negative 2.8% if the crisis continues.“Everything is at a complete standstill, there are no transactions taking place except people buying food from day to day,” says Shekhar Golchha of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI). “The question is how long before businesses run out of cash to pay salaries, and families run out of savings.”Factories along the Itahari-Biratnagar and Simara-Birganj corridors have been hardest hit not just by the plunge in demand but because workers who had returned from India after 21 July started falling sick.One of those hit was Jagadamba Steels, whose Sahil Agrawal says: “The sale of steel rods had picked up somewhat after the lockdown was lifted, but after workers tested positive, the local administration closed the factories. Now, with the lockdown everything is closed.”Even worse hit is the tourism and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/domestic-flights-need-to-resume-so-the-economy-can-take-off/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHQz5xiYmnvrrNu2XXeOqvI6eqyXQ">aviation sector</a> where revenue is zero for the past five months. Banks had given loans worth Rs1.1 trillion for hotels and restaurants, and had lent Rs40 billion to the transport sector. They are not in a position to replay even the interest, let alone the capital.Imports are down 20%, from Rs1.7 trillion in the first half of last year compared to only Rs85 billion in the same period this year. That should be good news, but it means the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils-covid-19-budget/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHmYyroAVpq5ZVmt1E9zdYH6duUQ">government’s tax revenue</a> has gone down by more than half.The middle class has been hit hardest with incomes falling. Of the 923,000 registered businesses in Nepal, nearly all are small and medium enterprises employing less than ten people. As a result, house and property transactions have gone down by half last month compared to the same period in 2019.“Except for mobile phones, motorcycles, fast moving consumer goods, nothing else is moving,” says Golchha. “Even when they do shop consumers are buying cheaper items, which is an indicator of a drastic fall in income.”Even the sale of alcohol products are down by up to 80%. Bhat Bhateni Supermarket’s Panu Poudel says turnover in the nationwide chain had picked up after 21 July, but was still down by a third, but now it is back to zero again.But the real barometer of just how bad the crisis is can be felt in the banking sector where on the one hand liquidity is overflowing because of reduction in loan disbursement, but collection has also shrunk because of defaults. The print editions of the Nepali language press in the past month are full of bank notices for auctions of collateral property. However, even if the property is up for auction, they may be no buyers.In the whole of July-August the banks collected Rs34 trillion in loan repayments, but they lent only Rs28 billion. “The reason is that it is difficult enough just to survive for businesses, and they are in no position to take a loan to invest,” says businessman Pashupati Murarka.The government had told borrowers they had a grace period till December to repay bank loans without being put on the defaulters’ black list, but it is looking like even that is being optimistic.One ray of hope for businesses was that public spending would increase in the run up to Dasain, which this year falls at the end of October. But most businessmen have given up on a Dasain-Tihar revival this year. Car sales used to go up at this time, but the Nepal Automobile Dealers’ Association has cancelled its annual auto show, and its chair Krishna Dulal says: “This year we are just trying to get by, there is no hope for sales.”With revenue down, the government will be forced to borrow. But the state borrowing already makes up 37% equivalent of the GDP, and it could go up to 51% by the end of this fiscal year. Economist Govinda Bahadur Thapa says the government may run out of money if the current trend continues. He says: “We have brought the economy to a standstill to save lives, but we need to save the economy as well. It is a very difficult balance.”Former finance secretary Rameshore Khanal is not as pessimistic. Although he does not discount the seriousness of the crisis, he thinks what could save Nepal is that it is still largely a subsistence economy and families have coping mechanisms to get by in times of extreme hardships. For example, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/cash-flow-crisis-for-migrants-and-families/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYYoLn_p_-ES3VLLcSEZMh_J0QPQ">remittances from Nepalis working overseas</a> have not gone down despite predictions it would drop drastically.He says the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">crisis also presents opportunities</a> for the government. “We can have a pro-active policy to channel unemployed Nepalis to the jobs 1.5 million Indian workers used to do before they went home, and this would be the time to flood the market with liquidity in order to inject cash and raise purchasing power.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ways-nepal-can-rebound-from-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598352647268000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH425REk3c_X8wnX5A6WbreQBdGKw">Ways Nepal can rebound from Covid-19</a>, Bikash Pandey

Economic cost of 5 months of Nepal lockdown

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b711e9c7e80680e0600b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="902"/><figcaption>Nepal's great income divide. Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Anyone who visits Nepal seeking <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment opportunities</a> will look at two indicators: the first is the exchange rate of the Nepali rupee against major currencies, and the second is the state of the toilet in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandu-airport-is-nepal-in-a-microcosm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the airport</a> arrival hall.When asked a simple question such as, “How far is Bhaktapur from Thamel?” The answer in kilometers may be easy but it is nearly impossible to answer in units of time. The answer therefore will be, “It depends”. What does it depend on? Well that also depends.In a country where we cannot tell anyone how long it will take to get to the next city, we have the world’s most complex and sophisticated statistics to indicate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">where Nepal stands</a> on anything and everything compared to the rest of the world.Does this country really need a Human Development Index, a Doing Business Index, a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Multi-dimensional Poverty Index</a> and many others? How do you monitor and verify so many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-rises-in-prosperity-index/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">indicators</a>?It is quite obvious that the number of tigers in Chitwan is an indicator for the deer population there, and the grazing area and water available to the deer. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The tiger count</a> would serve as a proxy indicator for the state of the environment.The system of conducting a national census was first carried out in the United States in 1790. In Nepal, the first census was conducted in 1911 during the reign of Prime Minister Chandra Shamsher. We are now preparing for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-the-2020s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Census 2021</a>, which will provide many indicators that will then hopefully be used to set priorities and allocate our scarce financial resources.The reason we cannot say how long it will take to get to Bhaktapur is because of the huge traffic jam at Koteshwor. Is the number of two- and four-wheel vehicles that converge at this junction and many others in the valley an indicator of the failure of seventy years of rural <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-will-nepal-develop-in-the-next-decade/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">development</a>?Why are people not staying in the villages where the government has been pumping annual budgets for as long as we know?It is very unpopular to tell development experts that rural Nepal does not need another school building because the parents have moved their children to the cities or to India or further afield. Pregnant women move to the nearest urban area with its good maternity health facilities when they are six months into their pregnancies.Two and half billion people will need old-age care globally by 2030 and this indicates that nursing is a good choice of profession. The sizes of different hoarding boards at major street junctions indicate which countries top the list of places to which young Nepalis are aspiring to move. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dead-end-of-the-korean-dream/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Korea</a> seem to be most popular, and yet these billboards are small compared to the English boarding school signs found all over Nepal.The ruling parties of Nepal have a vision and a mission -- prosperous Nepal, happy Nepalis. Can we agree on three indicators for each and hold politicians accountable to them? And then make sure that each cabinet and parliament session always begins by re-visiting these six indicators and reporting to the citizens on where we stand on each?A problem with statistics is that data can be bent every which way. For example, does the high growth we have seen in the domestic airline business indicate Nepalis are getting rich or that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-deadly-roads-take-their-toll/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">road travel is risky</a>?Does the growing number of private hospitals indicate wealth or that people are becoming sick? Does the increased forest cover in Nepal indicate that people have internalised conservation or that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">imported LPG</a> and cement have made it redundant to collect firewood and building materials?While GDP per capita is the most popular indicator we use, we know few report their true income. Should income be replaced by the prices of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">phones we carry</a> or the size of the TV owned or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">vehicle driven</a>?Indicators are a good management tool, but we often do not like to be held accountable to them. There are too many variables that affect our work and hence the goal post keeps changing. But if we agree that the toilet at the airport is a critical indicator to inspire potential investors, we need to make it functional and impressive.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc

Anil Chitrakar

Counting what counts in Nepal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kd5O93-Ipg4&amp;feature=youtu.beDil Bahadur Gurung was 13 when he left his isolated home village of Orang in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/heritage-conservation-outside-kathmandu,3487" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dolakha district</a> to get a better education in Kathmandu. He was used to hard work, and was prepared to face any hardship to pay his way through school. He worked as domestic servant for a family in exchange for food and shelter.The teenager had to wake up at 4AM and finish all household chores to able to join morning classes at 6am and return to finish the rest of his work. At night, after all the cleaning and washing he would do his ‘homework’. In three years, he graduated from high school and joined a college, while working at a cargo company to pay for his studies.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/migrant-worker-finds-farming-in-nepal-more-rewarding/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migrant worker finds farming in Nepal more rewarding</a>, Naresh newar“It wasn’t an easy life, but I was so determined to study. My self-confidence and motivation prepared me for this life, and later on in my business,” says Dil, now 47.He started working in a shop in Thamel and took technical training in hand-crafted products at the Department of Cottage and Small Industries. He had some savings by then, and with help from an uncle he invested it in his own company, ‘Handcraft’ in Kapan to produce lamp shades, notebooks, boxes, greeting cards from <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Putting-it-down-on-paper-nepali,3750" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali lokta paper.</a><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a67b09c7e80680e0599efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"/><figcaption>Photos: NARESH NEWAR</figcaption></figure>But competition was stiff, he had few customers and he did not have access to raw materials. He struggled to keep his business afloat. His parents insisted that he close down the shop, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/reducing-labour-pain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">migrate to the Gulf</a> for a more stable salary, like many of his peers.“Everyone was asking me to close down my company, but that just increased my determination to keep going. I believed that I could make the business of paper handicrafts a success,” recalls Dil.So, he headed back to his village in Dolakha to collect wild lichen, pipal leaves, and lokta pulp to create handmade greeting cards. Back in Kathmandu, he went door to door, from one shop to the next, walking and cycling all over Kathmandu with his products. Even after being rudely rejected often, he did not lose heart and gradually managed to find loyal customers.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/rupeshs-epic-journey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rupesh's epic journey</a>, Naresh NewarHe slowly diversified his products and started making lamp shades, small boxes, pouches – all made from lokta. Before long, the original designs started bringing in orders from wholesalers, hotels, restaurants, schools. He started a small outlet in Dhobighat which became popular. As business picked up, he hired 16 fulltime staff and also involved another 150 painters, flower and other suppliers.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a67b49c7e80680e0599f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="480"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a67b89c7e80680e0599f1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="480">Today, Dil Bahadur Gurung’s company is valued at Rs10 million, and he has an annual turnover of Rs4 million. He is also encouraging his 20-year old son to finish his studies and join the business so he does not have to move abroad.“I am so glad that I didn’t migrate abroad to work as a labourer, and I want to encourage other Nepalis to stay in the country because this place is full of opportunities for those who are willing to work hard starting small businesses,” says Dil. “Working abroad is not a solution. We Nepalis have to tap our abilities to start our own ventures and create jobs for other Nepalis at home.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/lighting-up-her-darkness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lighting up her darkness</a>, Naresh NewarInstead of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-malaysia-rewrite-rules-for-migrant-labour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal government working on deals with foreign countries</a> to send labourers, it can do just the opposite by bringing in more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign investment</a> to create jobs right here in the country, he says, adding: “We cannot afford to lose any of our younger generation by migrating abroad and working in dirty and dangerous jobs.”Journalist-turned-farmer Naresh Newar presents this multimedia column, Made in Nepal, in Nepali Times every fortnight profiling stories of successful small entrepreneurs.

Staying in Nepal to create jobs

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

Greenbacks for greenery

Khukri Rum is <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3719#.WurBk6SFPIU">one of Nepal’s most iconic brands</a>, and is now launching a new Cask Series premium product to sell in Nepal and abroad. The Cask Series Smoked Finish Khukri Rum is a limited edition with only about 7,000 bottles, most of it for export and rest to be sold to rum connoisseurs in Nepal itself. Each bottle is numbered and will mention the cask from which it is derived. “We are working on taking a classic Nepali rum to a new luxury premium brand category, the Cask Series will only be produced this year with new product ranges in future,” explains Subash Lamichhane, managing director of Nepal Distilleries that first started making Khukri rum in 1959 in Balaju and has never stopped. Fermented from molasses in Bara district in the Tarai after the annual sugarcane harvest, the rum is matured for at least eight months during distillation. The distillery bottles the classic Khukri XXX, Coronation Khukri XXX, Khukri White Rum and Khukri Spiced Rum.&nbsp; The distillery is now adding this limited edition of its ‘Cask Series’. While the original rum is stored in huge wooden vats, the rum used for this more exclusive line is in smaller casks made either from oak or sal, with charred insides to give the rum a smoky flavour. The Cask Series rum is indeed smokier than the classic, while the spiced rum tastes toasty and mostly of cardamom. The company has a tasting suite with a master blender and tasters who have to approve the palate test.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241122131124_10b8ddca93b37b0348bf964b4f09e7fac6ef4e754cca6231368850539cd558e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum"> </figure>  The packaging for the Cask Series is as special as the process. A sturdy patterned box that opens up to a black glass bottle with gold lettering, and an indication of which cask the rum is from. These are then shipped to premium customers around the world One of the reasons this is the more expensive premium line is because the casks are smaller than the vats and the blenders reject more than half of the rum in the casks when the aging period is complete. The trick for the blender is also to decide when to take the run out of the cask.&nbsp; Says Lamichhane: “If we have 25 casks, we expect to throw away about fifteen.”Over the decades, Nepal Distilleries have created and maintained a brand that feels quintessentially Nepali, and has served as Nepal’s ‘ambassador’ with exports to Germany, Korea, Belgium, Finland, the Czech Republic, besides the existing markets among Nepalis in the US, UK, Hong Kong and Australia. &nbsp;Its unique <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khukri-rum-sharpens-its-act">khukri shaped bottle</a> first introduced for King Birendra’s coronation in 1975 has been a collector’s item. The bottle and rum have been a staple for Nepalis and visitors to take as gifts when they leave the country, and is used as decoration on bar tables around the world. Now, nearly 40 years later, even that bottle will soon be getting a makeover with a sharper design and sleeker handle. “Our bottle design has always been instantly recognisable, and it is,” says Lamichhane. The Himalayan restaurant at The Hague, for example, has a Khukri Coronation bottle adorning its bar (page 6-7). In Washington DC Himalayan Heritage Restaurant &amp; Bar offers ‘Nepalese Khukri Rum’ mojito in its drinks menu with fresh mint, soda water, lime juice and sugar syrup, for $12.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241122131124_b9474db3fc83c85845348dddc30c49652ee1f17229531867fa241de50849cedc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Khukri Rum NT"> <figcaption>Christopher Armes, master blender of the Cask Series.</figcaption> </figure>  A distinct element of the award-winning <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/khukri-rum-gets-award">classic Khukri rum</a> is its burgundy colour from caramel sourced from cooking sugar and blended with the raw rum. The spirits are then stored in a warehouse with floor-to-ceiling vats. The vats are not just for storage, the wood in the vats imparts flavour into the rum, and removes a lot of the harshness. &nbsp; On a visit this week, the bottling room was just about to begin for the day and the production line was churning out different shapes and sizes of Khukri Rum bottles. Most of the process is automated, including screwing bottle caps, sticking labels, placing the government seal, and packaging. The only manual intervention is the quality control where bottles are held against the light to check for sediment and colour. A mural on the wall of the distillery in Balaju depicts the rum-making process. A lady slings sugarcane on her shoulder, the molasses is churned in a pot, water is channelled into the distillation process, cinnamon, cloves and cardamom are added to a container, and finally there is a bottle of the classic Khukri Rum against a Kathmandu backdrop.

Khukri goes premium with new rum

Turkish Airlines has introduced a new amenity kit collection designed in collaboration with French fashion house Lanvin for international business class passengers on flights more than five hours. It consists of five pieces designed for sustainability and elegance. Bags are reusable and will consist of Lanvin cosmetic products like hand and body lotions and lip balm. Eye masks and socks are made from recycled materials, earplugs are packaged in paper and the toothbrush is bamboo.

Turkish amenity kit

Nepal now generates a surplus of electricity and it is all from renewable hydropower. Nearly half the country is under forest cover. Despite meeting these decarbonisation goals, Nepal’s hydropower plants are threatened by increased risk due to climate impact.&nbsp; Till <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">28 September</a>, Nepal was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-nepal-sign-power-exchange-deal">exporting just over 1,000MW</a> of electricity to power-hungry India, when flash floods and landslides unleashed by historically heavy rains damaged over 30 hydropower plants across the country, temporarily <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/power-to-the-people">slashing nearly half the power generation.</a> The 456MW Upper Tamakosi in Dolakha was the hardest hit and it will take six months and Rs2 billion to repair. This has significantly reduced exports as well as domestic generation. Two months later, Nepal has still not been unable to fully keep its export commitment, and is actually paying Rs100 million in fines to India. Thirty-seven existing and under construction projects under the Independent Power Producers' Association Nepal (IPPAN) suffered Rs2.5 billion in damage. One of them is the 22MW Bagmati project in Makwanpur which was almost completely buried in flood debris. Even before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/60-dead-64-missing-in-nepal-floods">record-breaking rain in September</a>, 15 other hydropower projects had been damaged by floods. Last year, floods caused by heavy localised rain damaged 28 hydropower plants. World governments met in Baku for COP29 to discuss the Loss &amp; Damage Fund and the Adaptation Fund, but for countries like Nepal the commas and brackets are meaningless until they are turned into $ and €. And likelihood of adequate compensation for climate-related damage is a long way off, if ever. Nepal’s national strategy is to use its vast hydropower resource as clean energy to spur economic growth, job creation, and boost export revenue. But the plants are located in narrow Himalayan valleys prone to landslides and floods even at the best of times. Now, those <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/changing-climate-for-investment-in-nepal">risks have been heightened by weather extremes</a> due to climate breakdown. At present, Nepal generates over 3,300MW of clean hydropower, and the target is to reach 12,700MW in the next five years. Projects equivalent to 6,000MW are under construction or ready to start. The Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation has an Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan with the target of producing 28,500MW by 2035 by when more than half of it will be exported.&nbsp; “The climate crisis will further change the rainfall patterns making hydropower generation a big question mark in the future,” Manjeet Dhakal in Baku, who is also the Nepali adviser to the LDC Chair at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). “We are building hydropower projects on rivers without evaluating risk. This whole process needs to be reviewed and reconsidered.” The report of the National Adaptation Plan published by the Ministry of Forest and Environment last year mentions that hydropower production, transmission and distribution will be at risk from flash floods, debris flows, glacial lake outbursts and rising temperatures.&nbsp; This risk is not confined to Nepal. Average global temperatures have increased by 1.3°C compared to the pre-industrial era. Worse, the Himalayan mountains are warming faster than the global average by 0.7°C because of elevation-dependent warming. A study conducted by our own Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in 2017 showed that the average temperature in Nepal has increased in the last four decades. Scientists say this is leading to extreme weather unleashing floods and landslides on slopes already destabilized by seismicity.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20241124071128_d22901a360e8958f606d80ffa21defba05a671f65afec65539dc21a6885d8345" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition NT"> <figcaption>BIBLICAL RAIN: Photo taken during catastrophic rain on 27-28 September at the Upper Tamakosi project site that destroyed the control room, killing four staff and burying the sedimentation tanks. Photo: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  Increased atmospheric temperatures has made the monsoon rains more erratic. It does not rain when it is supposed to, and it comes down in torrents when it is not supposed to. The September floods happened two weeks after the monsoon was supposed to retreat from central Nepal. Kathmandu Valley received half its annual precipitation in just over a day. &nbsp; Winter precipitation has also failed, especially in the high mountains and trans-Himalayan valleys. Thirteen of the past 19 years experienced winter drought. This impacts on dry season flows of the rivers, reducing hydropower generation. Nepal’s power capacity normally goes down by one-fourth during winter, but the gap is widening. The Kabeli corridor could only generate 20MW November-March even though plants there have an installed capacity of 200MW. Similarly, Upper Tamakosi only produced 65MW at most against its 456MW capacity last winter. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) pays producers double the price for winter electricity, Rs8.40 per unit. Even though winter operation is highly profitable the rivers run low and NEA has to import from India to meet the winter demand. “This is not just a weather problem but a serious challenge also for the country's energy future, good climate-friendly design should be combined with policy and effective implementation,” says Subarna Das Shrestha, a hydropower investor and CEO of Sanima Mai Hydropower. “Insurance premiums have gone up as well, and settlement for damage is not timely.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-risk-to-hydropower-investment">Hydropower investment</a> at one time was regarded as having a high rate of return. Now, some investors have become <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-smarter-himalayan-infrastructure">wary of the risks involved</a>. Says IPPAN’s Uttam Blon Lama: “Hydropower projects expected to give stable returns are now looking risky. Not only is climate adaptation design and planning expensive, but future repair and maintenance costs will also skyrocket.” Nepal has only one storage type dam <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">in Kulekhani</a> and another one is being built in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/missing-pieces-of-the-hydropower-jigsaw">Tanahu</a>, but they are also at risk. In September, the sluice gates of Kulekhani Dam had to be opened causing loss of life and destruction downstream. Nepal has to learn lessons from the deadly collapse of the $1 billion <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Dam in Sikkim</a> in October 2023 cause by a glacial lake burst. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in Nepal pose potentially catastrophic risk to infrastructure. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">Thame flood in August</a> was a relatively minor debris flow that damaged half of this village in the Everest region when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">two glacial lakes at 4,760m burst</a>. Luckily there was no loss of life. Of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">47 high-risk glacial lakes</a> in the eastern Nepal Himalaya, 21 are in Nepal and the rest are in rivers in China that are tributaries of the Arun and Bhote Kosi where Nepal has major hydropower plants under construction, or planned.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20241123021128_b596cd8520c57a6c5476031e7a3ea6510f26b464c4d5351d2bc10f6f7d6b70d8" data-rendition-name="original" width="871" height="648" loading="lazy" alt="Page 10-11 map #1236 NT"> </figure>  Global temperature rise is accelerating the melting of Himalayan snow and ice, increasing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-below-nepal-s-melting-mountains">number and size of glacial lakes</a> so that we do not even have names for them. Imja Tso did not even exist in the old trekking maps until 25 years ago, but is now a 2km long lake. “Natural moraine dams in the mountains are weak, and the projects downstream can face major destruction if they burst, and the risk will only increase in future,” warns climatologist Arun Bhakta Shrestha at the <a href="https://www.icimod.org/">International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a>. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/terrifying-assessment-of-a-himalayan-melting">An ICIMOD assessment in 2019</a> projected that if present heating trends continue, as they probably will, the Himalaya will lose two-thirds of our glaciers by the end of this century. “Generally speaking, hydropower developers hand over the project to the government after 30 years but by that time given the climate risks, they may not be an asset anymore,” says Manjeet Dhakal. Indeed, the cascade of expensive projects India is building on the Arun River are supposed to be handed back to Nepal in 25 years, but there is a big ‘if’ about whether they will survive that long. &nbsp;&nbsp; Planning of hydropower projects is still based on historical hydrological data, and does not take into account future temperature rise and its consequences. Investors, on the other hand, say that planning hydropower projects with climate components would make them even more expensive.&nbsp; “It’s not that we aren’t preparing for climate risk, we design keeping in mind the once-in-100-year flood,” says Blon of IPPAN. “But if we start designing based on once in 1,000 years flood, the cost would be so high that we won’t be able to build them at all.” Nonetheless, Subarna Das Shrestha of Sanima Mai Hydropower says that there is no option but to go for climate smart infrastructure despite the higher cost. Sanima Mai's powerhouse, for example, is completely underground. The strategy could also be to spread the risk by building less expensive plants located on rivers all over the country. Nepal is also diversifying away from its sole reliance on hydroelectricity, which at present supplies 92% of the power in the grid. Most of the rest comes from solar plants, where the total potential has not even been scratched. &nbsp; This article is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758.jpg" data-media-id="editor_21" data-image-id="20240630110640_30c3782f9c09219bf1c249b51483a3cfb7a53a06d117d2aebd23ca7080d12758" data-rendition-name="original" width="680" height="103" loading="lazy" alt="SDG logo"> </figure>  &nbsp;