<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234a69c7e80680e0c4945jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVES</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s elections have traditionally been driven by vote-bank politics. Voters cast their ballots depending on generational party affiliation, caste, ethnic or regional allegiances.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/making-kathmandu-great-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">election of Balen Shah</a> as mayor of Kathmandu in May local elections showed that people are fed up with politics as usual, they blame the mainstream parties, and are ready to abandon traditional loyalty to vote banks.The other factor that could impact this shift is the growing number of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-gen-next/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new, young and social media savvy voters</a> who do not cast their ballots along traditional party lines.There were 17,733,723 registered voters in the May elections, which was 3,659,299 more than the previous election in 2017. Nepal’s youth bulge means that there could be as many as 350,000 more young people on the voter’s list for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-polls-a-rehearsal-for-federal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> on 20 November.Balen Shah’s historic swearing-in ceremony, his first Kathmandu Metropolitan City council meeting being streamed live on social media, and his non-traditional methods of appealing to voters has brought a breath of fresh air. Independent mayors in Dharan and Dhangadi are also engaging in unconventional politics, notwithstanding a wholly unnecessary public spat between Balen Shah and his Dharan counterpart, Harka Sampang.All this has brought a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandus-balen-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">paradigm shift</a> in the way younger Nepalis perceive politicians, and perhaps even convincing those with no interest in politics to<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-alt-right-falls-off-the-map/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> sit up and take notice</a>.Although the right to vote may seem straightforward in a country that prides itself on its democracy and new Constitution, it is tragic that the same old and vicious cycle of elections, disillusionment and instability has continued.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234a99c7e80680e0c4946jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="890" height="604"><figcaption>Balen Shah taking a selfie with a supporter during his campaign in May 2022. Photo: BINAY CREATION PHOTOGRAPHY</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/snowbalen/">Public disenchantment</a> with figures in the incumbent coalition government is high. Driven by blatant corruption in high places, the same old politicians are angling for top posts over and over again, a prime minister who held the post <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deuba-5/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">five times before</a> wants to continue holding on to it and is making murky backroom deals to rotate the office with his coalition partner.The fact that turnouts in Nepal’s elections are still high means that there is hope for change. Turnout figures used to be nearly 80% in the 1990s after the restoration of multi-party democracy and has been going down, but it was still a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-vote-enthusiastically-in-local-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">respectable 65% in May</a>.A substantial number of those who <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-goes-on-in-nepals-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cast their votes in May</a>, at least in urban areas, showed a shift away from traditional candidates from mainstream parties and their ineptitude and broken promises. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">This trend</a> has not yet reached critical mass, but it could gain traction in November – especially if the governing coalition fields tainted candidates.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">rise of the independents</a> in Nepal is not a coincidence, it is change waiting to unfold. It is what has given hope to hundreds of thousands of young idealist Nepalis that they can be agents of reform. They have never cared about party-loyalty or twisted politics, but are more concerned with everyday issues like jobs, educational reform and affordable healthcare.Be it in Dharan, Dhangadi or Kathmandu, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-local-election-gives-power-back-to-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local election</a> results demonstrated that Nepali politics is evolving so fast that it is leaving the old men who dominated it far behind.It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change, Darwin postulated. This seems to hold true not just for biological evolution but in politics too. It is not the survival of the fittest, but the most promising ones.Just as a species will perish once they become incapable of adapting, if elections do the job they are designed to, then parties, politicians and legislators will become extinct as soon as they can no longer deliver the goods.As difficult as it may seem at the moment for candidates to attract the youth to support them, there is also opportunity if their campaign strategy is adjusted.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131128/637234ac9c7e80680e0c4947jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><figcaption>Citizens in Kathmandu protesting the government’s poor handling of the COVID-19 crisis, lack of transparency and corruption in June 2020. Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA.</figcaption></figure>It could be easier said than done, since we have seen how elders of the major parties feel threatened by even their own younger colleagues. Regardless of how idealist the younger crop of leaders are, there will always be someone to put hurdles in their way.There are many examples of young, charismatic and energetic leaders being elected in countries like New Zealand, Finland, and elsewhere. We have seen the rise of the Aam Admi Party as such a powerful force in India that even the ruling BJP feels threatened by its popularity. And Singapore’s Lee Kwan Yew showed that one does not even need full democracy to guarantee accountability, performance is enough.In any functioning democracy, a candidate needs voter support. While it may have been easy for parties to make wild promises in their manifestos in the past, they need to be more convincing now. Clever speeches and orations <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sanitizegovernment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will not suffice.</a>Nepal’s near-future will be determined by the November polls. It is an election that will affect the next generation of Nepalis, which is why new and young voters must make their presence and choices felt. The days of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/volatile-mix-of-politics-and-religion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">blind-support and vote banks</a> to keep corrupt leaders in power are gone.Our support will go to those who can convince us that they will perform until the very end of their term. The leaders we are looking for are the ones who walk the talk, will plan our energy future so we tackle not just our trade deficit but reduce Nepal’s carbon footprint.The oldsters in the old parties may take their younger colleagues and independent candidates as a threat. But it is also an opportunity for them to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/clean-up-elections-to-clean-up-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reform themselves</a> before it is too late.Yugottam Koirala is a student at St Xavier’s College, Kathmandu, and will miss being of voting age by a few months this November.

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Nepal’s Gen Next Election

<img width="800" height="924" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811114/636a29d09c7e80680e0458e9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>After being lampooned for extravagant, but empty, promises and criticised for having nothing concrete to show for his first year as prime minister, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-1st-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">K P Oli</a> has moved quickly to address two lingering legacies of the conflict and the constitution-writing process: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sign a deal with C K Raut</a> to get him to abandon secessionism, and outlaw the hardline <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Netra Bikram Chand (Biplav)</a> faction of the Maoists. Despite misgivings and cynical comments on social platforms, the Oli administration has also won applause for its new assertiveness and a renewed sense of purpose. Read also: '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=23156&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">No closure</a>'In the 11-point agreement signed with Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa on 24 March, Raut has committed to accept Nepal’s sovereignty and unity as well as enter the democratic mainstream. That declaration has removed the threat of ethno-separatism from plains politics, meaning that moderate Madhesi parties can now no longer fall back on Raut’s secessionist rhetoric as a bargaining chip with Kathmandu.With his Cambridge education and work in IT, Raut brings with him international exposure and perhaps a cleaner, meaner brand of politics. Anger in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-rebels-to-rulers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Province 2</a> runs deep, and the mistrust of K P Oli may have grown among Madhesi parties because of last Sunday’s deal. As David Seddon reports from Province 2, unless there are real moves towards autonomy and devolution, there may very well be other Rauts. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Only genuine devolution will douse separatism</a>, David SeddonThe surprise announcement last Sunday was not easily digestible to the opposition NC and other parties who accused Oli of a sellout. But the most vocal critic of the 11-point agreement were Oli's rivals within the NCP itself: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-ship-of-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal</a> did not show it but was privately miffed that Oli had not kept him apprised, and Bhim Rawal’s main gripe was also that he was not consulted.However, we give Oli a thumbs up on this even if it is only for keeping the sensitive negotiations under wraps in the leaky corridors of Singha Darbar. Oli has shown that he likes to surprise people by pulling rabbits out of hats. For example, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-two-party-state,3968" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pre-electoral alliance in 2017</a> between the Maoists and the UML was also a bolt from the blue when announced.The agreement with Raut followed close on the heels of the Kailali District Court sentencing Resham Chaudhary to life imprisonment for the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ground-zero-in-Kailai,2538" target="_blank" rel="noopener">massacre of policemen in Tikapur</a> in August 2015, and his party the RJP-N subsequently pulling out from the governing coalition in protest. There also seems to have been some behind-the-scenes winks and nods between Baluwatar and the Supreme Court for Raut to be released from jail a day prior to the agreement.The wily Oli seems to have killed several birds with one stone with the agreement: he countered his public image of being <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/communist-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only talk and no walk</a>, neutralised the fallout of RJP-N leaving his government, and depending Raut’s future role, laid the groundwork for the next general election which will be won or lost in the Madhes.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's a crime not to call it terrorism</a>, Kunda DixitOn Biplav, although the government split hairs by saying it was not a ban on the party, only on its criminal activities, the action essentially drives the Maoist faction underground. There could be two reasons for this: the ruling NCP wants to keep the door open for negotiations, or ex-Maoists in the ruling party used to be buddies of Biplav and just want to pretend to go after him. After all, Biplav is now using the same tactics of extortion and violence they used at the beginning of the insurgency in 1996. Even so, by publicly calling the Biplav party a “gang of looters” Prime Minsiter Oli has thrown the gauntlet.The Maoists were already semi-underground, and owned up to three bomb attacks in the capital last month that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/innocent-life-lost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">killed one person</a>, and set fire to more than a dozen Ncell towers across the country. The government was challenged, and there was no other way for it to respond but warn that criminal activities will no longer be tolerated.With both the Raut deal and the warning to Biplav, the government now needs to show that it means business. A ruling party that can bring a separatist force to the negotiating table should easily be able to convince former comrades-at-arms to give up violence. While doing that, the government should also try to win the hearts and minds of the people of Province 2, expedite political devolution and remove grievances that feed extremism.As far as the Maoists are concerned, they are cashing in on disillusionment among the people with the NCP’s poor governance and corruption. The root cause of extremism is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme inequality</a>, and unless there are moves towards social justice, Nepal will continue to be unstable. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> The week that the NCP government made up of ex-Maoists signed an agreement with Madhesi activist CK Raut to renounce separatism, is as good a time as any to look back at <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/442" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #442 of 13-20 March 2019</a> which dealt the beginnings of unrest in the Madhes for more autonomy. Excerpt from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15746#.XJSGlCIzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Editorial</a>:‘The continuing Tarai unrest, brewing discontent among groups demanding self-determination, intractable tension within the party leading the coalition, the inability of the state to protect its citizens and improve their lives -- these are just some of the crises Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal faces. And all the time, he has to prevent the peace process from being derailed and keep to the timetable on the constitution. The job would have been difficult even if there was a consensus government, the coalition partners loved each other, the bureaucracy was clean and efficient and there was no looming global depression. What makes Dahal’s job immensely more difficult is that his party is still behaving like it is in the jungles, and Kathmandu’s politicians act as if they are still in the era of self-centred coalition politics of the 1990s.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/442"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811114/636a29d39c7e80680e0458eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="510" height="815"></a>

Two  extremities

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811114/636a29cc9c7e80680e0458e8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Bikram Rai</figcaption></figure>Just as the government was defusing one crisis by getting Madhesi activist <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CK Raut to renounce separatism</a> last Sunday, it was faced with another explosive situation created by breakaway Maoist radicals.The ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is made up of ex-UML and erstwhile Maoists, but the faction that enforced a nationwide shutdown on Thursday calls itself the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN). Its leader <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/extortion-in-a-federal-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Netra Bikram Chand (Biplav)</a> was mentored by NCP co-Chair and Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and was once comrade-in-arms of Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa. Biplav is now using the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">same tactics of violence and extortion</a> that the Maoists perfected at the start of the war in the 1990s.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=23164&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Two  extremities</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Only genuine devolution will douse separatism</a>, David Seddon Thursday’s shutdown affected movement on highways, closed schools and industries throughout the country, although the impact was not felt on traffic in Kathmandu Valley (pictured above). The closures were enforced with terror, but a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/innocent-life-lost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fatal bombing at Ncell earlier</a> this month had already convinced the public that Biplav meant business. The party has been openly extorting businesses as well as local governments across the country.Security sources told Nepali Times they had shared intelligence about CPN recruitment drives and militia training, and had warned the government about the group’s preparations ahead of the recent arson and bombing spree.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It’s a crime not to call it terrorism</a>, Kunda DixitNow, the NCP is finally taking the CPN seriously. On Tuesday the Cabinet outlawed the activities of the party, saying that it was a criminal entity, not a political party. Ministers said they were forced to take the step after the semi-underground group refused the government’s offer of talks. Dahal even declared that he faced a threat to his life from his former protégés.Biplav brushed off the ban, calling it ‘ridiculous’ and adding in a statement on Wednesday that ‘extortion was a fundamental right … necessary for the nation and people’.  Security forces have in the past month seized assault rifles and other weapons from CPN cadre in Dharan and Rupendehi, tracing them back to former guerrillas who absconded from UN-supervised camps with weapons after the ceasefire.By attacking a Malaysian telecom company and threatening Indian hydropower projects in Nepal, Biplav has thrown a direct challenge to the government ahead of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-inc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Investment Summit 29-30 March</a>, during which the government hopes to attract <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/making-nepal-fdi-friendly,853" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign investments</a> on hydropower projects.With the CK Raut deal and the warning on Biplav, the government is trying to show that it is willing to negotiate, but will not tolerate violence. Some within the ruling party are asking why if Prime Minister Oli can bring a separatist force to the negotiating table, it is taking so long for him to tame the NCP.After mainstreaming Raut, the government now needs to expedite political devolution in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-rebels-to-rulers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Province 2</a>. The root cause of extremism is exclusion and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inequality</a>, and Nepal will continue to be unstable as long as these injustices are not addressed.

No closure

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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