Climate mitigation targets are being rolled back worldwide, and time is running out for saving <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">the Himalayan icecap</a>.&nbsp;
That was the unsaid message of the three-day Sagarmatha Sambaad international climate conference hosted by the Nepal government in Kathmandu this week.
The gathering ended with a 25-point Call For Action, but drew criticism for being yet another talk shop, regurgitating jargon and deflecting blame for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint">lack of seriousness in reducing emissions</a>, adapting to weather extremes in the region, and failure in cross border cooperation.
“The event put Nepal and Everest on the global climate map and had geopolitical benefits for Nepal,” says climate policy analyst Arjun Dhakal. “But it was a missed opportunity for Nepal to strongly push<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya"> climate-smart infrastructure</a>, transboundary <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/yes-quakes-can-be-forecast?%2F">early warning systems</a> and highland research.”
Nepal unveiled its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 with mitigation targets for 2030 and 2035, and its first Biennial Transparency Report with emissions data from 1994 to 2022 and projections up to 2050.
Although Nepal has met previous targets for forest cover (46% of area) and made progress in promoting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-journey-to-electric-public-transport">electric transport</a>, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fossil-fools">fossil fuel </a>use is growing. The Third NDC targets a 17.1% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions and 26.8% by 2035. This could have a price tag of &nbsp;$73.74 billion — most of it from international climate finance at a time when money for it is drying up.
Nepal also hopes to increase electricity generation to 28,500MW by 2035, up the sales of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-journey-to-electric-public-transport">electric public vehicles </a>to 90%, and operate at least 100km of integrated electric bus, trolley and light rail transit in Kathmandu Valley, and build 300km of electric train network.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-public-in-public-transport">The public in public transport</a>, Sonia Awale
These are lofty promises at a time when the government's next budget has a huge revenue shortfall, and the Ministry of Finance is expected to increase taxes on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/evs-hybrids-and-plug-ins?%2F">battery-operated vehicles</a> which have seen a huge increase due to past rebates.
“<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/act-now-on-climate">Climate change </a>has become political, big emitters aren’t even respecting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/combining-ipcc-targets-with-sdgs">global targets</a>. So it is very unlikely they are listening to us,” says water expert Madhukar Upadhyay. “Nepal just does not have the political stature to push global commitments. But we could have narrowed the focus and taken the lead on regional action.”&nbsp;
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted above-normal rainfall and temperatures for South Asia for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">monsoon</a> 2025. Pre-monsoon rains this year are above normal and could be a sign of things to come.&nbsp;
“Rainfall patterns have changed, they are shorter, have higher intensity and are localised. Mudslides are now a big problem,” says Upadhyay. “We need specific intervention for specific places, taking into account geological and other factors to increase <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/on-high-monsoon-alert-in-nepal">preparedness</a>.”
Too much water is a problem, but so is too little. Nepal has suffered chronic <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-suffers-another-winter-drought">winter drought</a>, causing natural springs to go dry — affecting food security and pushing outmigration.&nbsp;
The Climate Impact Survey 2022 put droughts as the number one <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/climate-change-hits-himalayan-rice?%2F">climate concern</a> of most Nepalis, but it barely got a mention in the plush conference hall this week. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-transboundary-haze-affects-nepal">Transboundary pollution</a> and black carbon deposition accelerating <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">glacier melting </a>also could have done with more attention.
One key proposal at Sagarmatha Sambaad was to establish a climate fund for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/from-the-north-pole-to-the-third-pole">Himalayan nations</a>. But given the geopolitical tensions after the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nukes-in-the-neighbourhood">India-Pakistan conflict</a> this month, and the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, this is even less likely.
Says Arjun Dhakal: “The dialogue could have been more impactful if we had taken concrete steps to set up the Himalayan climate fund instead of just proposing it.”&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya">Climate change is a disaster in the Nepal Himalaya</a>, Sonam Choekyi Lama
The next round of Sagarmatha Sambaad is planned for 2027, and if present warming trends continue, global average temperature will have exceeded 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. And experts say the Himalaya warms 0.7°C above the global average — making <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains">glaciers of High Asia melt</a> even more rapidly.&nbsp;
Of the estimated $400 billion annually required for loss and damage, only $768.4 million has been pledged to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) since the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund during COP28. Even then, only $321 million has been paid into the FRLD.
The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal">efforts to reduce emissions</a> have declined globally in recent times, regardless of advancement in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-can-lead-in-zero-carbon">clean energy transition</a>, and some say as the developing world forms its climate action entirely around climate financing, they will also lose their moral ground when advocating for reducing emissions.
“We are running out of time, we cannot keep waiting for the loss and damage fund,” says Upadhyay. “Nepal’s own upcoming budget can do much for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-finance-climate-action?mibextid=Zxz2cZ">climate action</a> if we prioritise emission reduction and preparedness.”

Sonia Awale

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Himalayan meltdown

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52a49c7e80680e052308jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2592" height="848"/><figcaption>Gabions above Chukung with the summit of Lhotse peeking through the clouds last month. All photos: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>In an example of local people adapting to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">climate crisis</a> with little outside help, the people of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/">Nepal’s Khumbu region</a> are building embankments to protect themselves from increasingly frequent floods coming out of melting glaciers upstream.While major glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) that destroy infrastructure get a lot of press, these local initiatives in remote and high altitude locations do not get much attention.While on a field survey of the impacts of the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-uds-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/on-everest-4-years-after-the-nepal-earthquake/&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjYya7W_efjAhUJinAKHZLsAcsQFjABegQIDxAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw0h7aKRfWj4B_kVdyZ1-PZZ">25 April and 12 May 2015 earthquakes</a> on three of Nepal’s potentially dangerous glacial lakes — <a href="https://digitalcommons.macalester.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2306&amp;context=himalaya">Imja, Tso Rolpa and Thulagi</a> – local lodge owners in Chukhung village (4,730m) talked of a mysterious flood from the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16562#.XUYpei0Q0Wo">Lhotse Glacier</a>, immediately upstream, on 25 May that year.The USAID-supported study followed our recently completed High Mountain Adaptation Partnership (HiMAP) program, which worked with communities in the Khumbu and Cordillera Blanca of Peru to develop local adaptation plans of action based on concurrent glacial lake and climate change studies, which were routinely shared with local people.Further investigation revealed that the source of the Lhotse flood was the interior of the glacier itself, now similar to a massive piece of Swiss cheese, with hundreds of water-filled caves in the shrinking and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ice-to-water-glacier-lake-outburts-himalayas-nepal,4197">rapidly ablating glacier</a>. Many of the caves are linked to surface meltwater ponds that can drain rapidly, in some cases triggering the release of water from dozens of conduits that converge to create a major flood.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52a79c7e80680e052309jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="989">Photo: GOOGLE EARTHThe 6m high wave generated by the May 2015 flood destroyed the bridge to Island Peak Base Camp and narrowly missed Chukung. It came in the middle of the night and, combined with the memory of the <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-uds-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjh7pL9_efjAhUDk3AKHWsyBAEQFjAIegQIBhAC&amp;usg=AOvVaw2mkMt6PodwsV2PgkTJG1uR">devastating earthquakes</a> the month before, caused widespread panic. Cell phone messages were passed rapidly down the valley.  People from Chukung to Lukla gathered their loved ones and carrying the elderly, ran for higher ground. They feared it might be a massive GLOF from Imja Tsho (5,010m), but in fact it was a smaller flood that impacted only the uppermost settlements.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52aa9c7e80680e05230ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52ad9c7e80680e05230bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>After the flood, local volunteers in the Khumbu Alpine Conservation Committee decided to begin building a dozen or more gabions, or rock-filled wire cages, immediately next to Chukung, on its southernmost side.A year later, on 12 June 2016, <a href="http://www.crwr.utexas.edu/video/Lhotse_Flood_Supplement_V3.mp4">a second and larger conduit flood</a> from Lhotse occurred, this time headed directly for Chukung. But the flood waters were successfully diverted by the gabions built the year before, resulting in only minor flooding of several lodge courtyards immediately next to the river.  Armed with the knowledge of their successful action, the community continued to devote its resources to construct more gabion walls along the glacial streams that run on the north and south sides of the settlement.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b09c7e80680e05230cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1826" height="507"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Yet another englacial conduit flood from the Lhotse Nup Glacier occurred a few weeks ago. Once again, there was minimal damage to the village thanks to the new gabions.With support from the Nepal Mountaineering Association, the Buffer Zone Council, local municipal government and their own resources, villagers have been able to fund and use effective local technology in response to what appears to be a new era of fairly routine flooding from the glaciers.Such phenomena <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16563#.XUYqJS0Q0Wo">have occurred for decades</a>, but never with the apparently increasing frequency of the past 10-15 years. Chukung probably should never have been built next to a vulnerable flood plain, but when most of the lodges were constructed 20 years ago, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073">glacier floods</a> happened only every 30-60 years, not every year.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b39c7e80680e05230djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="980" height="735"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b69c7e80680e05230ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="979" height="733"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52b89c7e80680e05230fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="716"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Such floods were so infrequent that in the mid-1950s, glaciologist Fritz Müller was nearly kicked out of the Khumbu by villagers angered over a large flood, most likely from Lhotse Nup Glacier, which destroyed half of Chukung’s grazing land as well as the prayer wheel ghatta at Phunki. They felt Müller had angered the gods by his research activities on the Khumbu glacier.Fortunately, the then 14-year-old abbot of Tengboche Monastery, the Venerable Ngawang Tenzing Zangpo Rinpoche, intervened on Müller’s behalf and all was forgiven. These days glacier floods happen nearly every year, but they rarely make the national news since they are so much smaller than the major GLOFs that destroy downstream infrastructure, they occur in high and remote locations, and sometimes escape the notice of even local people.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52bb9c7e80680e052310jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="594" height="404"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The climate change adaptation demonstrated by Chukung has yet to make global news, but it is one more example of how Himalayan people themselves, with little or no help from the outside, are quietly <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/">adapting to the impacts of climate change</a> in real and effective ways.Bridges are being built higher to cope with more frequent and higher floods. Lodges and new infrastructure are built well above floodplains that until recently were considered to be safe. Many gabions are being built along river banks that only 10 years ago had none.And life in the high Himalaya goes on.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131156/636a52bd9c7e80680e052311jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="501" height="376"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Alton C Byers, PhD, is Senior Research Associate and Faculty at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), University of Colorado at Boulder, in the US.

Living below Nepal’s melting mountains

Nepal’s cricket team first beat powerhouse West Indies in two out of three matches in September, the first time it won a match and then a series against a test-playing nation.&nbsp; Then the Rhinos played six qualifiers in Oman for the 2026 T20 World Cup which is being held in India and Sri Lanka from 7 February to 8 March next year. The national team qualified comfortably with two games to spare, and won all six matches anyway. In the three months before the World Cup, cricketers will play the second season of the Nepal Premier League from 17 November to 13 December.&nbsp; After a hugely successful first season, steady upgrades have been made. The flood-lit Tribhuvan University Cricket Ground has been fitted with 15,000 seats, even though this takes away from the festival-like atmosphere of fans on their feet on the grassy slope.&nbsp; Last season, matches began at noon and three in the afternoon. Late-evening matches in winter under flood lights will increase attendance and viewership.&nbsp; There is also now technology that will display how far a six was hit and how fast a ball was bowled. Foreign players who will play in the league include Chris Lynn, D’arcy Short, Ravi Bopara, and Sohail Tanvir, all good ex-international players that people have heard of.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251101031128_9db0830fb65d0743e3d36cc4b4473e61d750789028a130f5dff8a619307b0215.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251101031128_9db0830fb65d0743e3d36cc4b4473e61d750789028a130f5dff8a619307b0215" data-rendition-name="original" width="1365" height="1803" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal cricket"> <figcaption>Aasif Sheikh drives through the covers on his way to 69 off 41 vs Samoa.</figcaption> </figure>  But the most important point of the Nepal Premier League will be to prepare and experiment for the World Cup, which starts less than two months after the NPL ends. Team Nepal will be extra eager to play well, given that the matches are happening in South Asia and Nepali fans can make the trip.&nbsp; Head coach Stuart Law will be watching each NPL match keenly, to gain more insight into how to best use his current starters.&nbsp; As each of the eight teams are only allowed a maximum of four foreign players in their starting eleven, Law and Nepali fans will also be scouting new talent who will be hungry to emerge and prove themselves to earn a place in the World Cup Squad.&nbsp; ALL-ROUNDERS One of the most unusual features of the current Nepali squad is how many all-rounders there are. Kushal Bhurtel, Rohit Paudel, Kushal Malla, Gulshan Jha, and Dipendra Singh Airee are all regular starters, and they all bat and bowl. Opener Aasif Sheikh is also the wicketkeeper.&nbsp; Airee, of course, is also an excellent fielder. In the first five games of the qualifiers, he got a record five runouts with direct hits, and was on a roll with a run in every single game. This depth means that almost always seven players bowl for Nepal, and the wealth of options keeps the opponent batting order guessing, but it may create hesitancy within the team in tough situations against stronger teams.&nbsp; Countries at the top level of the sport tend to have more specialists. Perhaps Stuart Law might want to tell Bhurtel to really focus on his batting, or Airee to hone his bowling, which seems to be their strengths. The team would be better off with them performing one aspect consistently well than being hit or miss with both. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251101031128_c30fdbab65736ea728f2f94fa121d2169e4d3627194ce1fe9de26eebdb3fc5b3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251101031128_c30fdbab65736ea728f2f94fa121d2169e4d3627194ce1fe9de26eebdb3fc5b3" data-rendition-name="original" width="957" height="1269" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal cricket"> <figcaption>Lalit Rajbhansi with tricky left arm spin, 3/13 vs Samoa.</figcaption> </figure>  POWERPLAYS The Nepali team likes batting first. It chased only against Japan, but they struggle to put up really competitive scores of say, above 170 unless two batsmen do really well.&nbsp; In the second match against the West Indies, Aasif Sheikh’s 68 and Sundeep Jora’s 63 set up Nepal at 173/6. Against Samoa, Aasif Sheikh had 69 and Airee had 53, before Lokesh Bam’s fierce 39 off 12 featuring 4 sixes set up 211/4.&nbsp; Besides these games, Nepal tends to score up to 150 batting first. To the experienced teams that Nepal will face at the world cup, this is not at all an intimidating score. One reason is that Nepal just cannot seem to get going in the first six powerplay overs, when there are limited fielders on the boundaries.&nbsp; A solution to this might be to promote Gulshan Jha up the order. Although Jha has also been an excellent batter in the end overs, using him at three or four might help set up a more productive powerplay and bigger scores. He should try it out with the Karnali Yaks.&nbsp; Despite all the controversy that comes with Sandip Lamichhane, and his strange decision to sit out the West Indies series minutes before the first match started, his output with the ball is undeniable.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251101031128_453d54ce627367c537d459c38d260d8aca1d56949c49c8023de582f3e72bb678.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251101031128_453d54ce627367c537d459c38d260d8aca1d56949c49c8023de582f3e72bb678" data-rendition-name="original" width="1499" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal cricket"> <figcaption>Nepalis turn out to support the team vs Samoa at Al Ameret Stadium in Oman.</figcaption> </figure>  He took wickets in each of the six qualifiers, most notably five vital ones in the match against Qatar that Nepal won by five runs. Lamichhane also gives away very few runs, which cuts some of the more part-time bowlers some slack.&nbsp; Airee is also economical, and his 3/22 was vital in the one-run win against the UAE. Together with Lamichhane the duo constricted the opposition in the middle overs. Veteran Sompal Kami has not been as productive with the ball, and gave away a lot of runs in the series against the West Indies.&nbsp; This is a weakness, because Kami does not contribute with the bat much. While his experience is valuable to ground the young Nepali team, Stuart Law should look out for fast bowlers during the NPL to help balance out quality spinners.&nbsp; One of the most impressive and professional parts of Nepal’s winning streak has been the attention to detail. The players have been generally excellent in the field, giving away very few runs due to wides or no balls. They had three run outs against the UAE and two against Qatar and Japan and in the first game against the West Indies.&nbsp; The fielders seem much calmer and focused when executing difficult catches, a welcome change from past complacency. This attention to detail makes the difference in narrow games and keeps morale high.&nbsp; The Nepali team has performed well, but besides the narrowly-beaten UAE, all the matches were against teams ranked lower in the world T20 rankings. And the series against the West Indies was against a weakened team. In the world cup, Nepal will be facing much stronger teams and will lack the element of surprise it had in the 2024 World Cup.&nbsp; If Nepal wants to keep improving, it now has to be able to dominate teams like Kuwait and Oman. It also should set up more series with associate nations like Scotland, Ireland, Namibia and The Netherlands. This will help accurately gauge the team’s progress and expose its weaknesses.

Nepal’s prospects at World Cup 2026

A little more than one month into its six-month term, Nepal's interim government recalled ambassadors from 11 countries: China, Japan, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Russia, Spain, Germany, the UK, the US, and Japan.&nbsp;
Mostly appointed by previous governments, they have to return to Kathmandu by 6 November. The envoys who were retained, even if they were political appointees, tended to be women or from various ethnic minorities.
The recall has met with criticism back home. Prime Minister Sushila Karki is blamed for borrowing a page out of its predecessors’ playbook. Although it was a symbolically inclusive move in a diplomatic corps dominated by established groups, the government may have got its timing wrong.
On Sunday, however, the Supreme Court issued an interim order against government decision to recall the 11 ambassadors. The court questioned the neccesssity and justification of such a move, concerned that it could affect Nepal's relations with the host countries.&nbsp;
Karki has said <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/future-imperfect">her priority is to hold elections in March</a>, and by recalling Nepal’s emissaries from important capitals like Washington, London, Bonn, Tokyo, Abu Dhabi and Kuala Lumpur her government has cut channels of communication and support from development partners and with the international community.&nbsp;
Nepal’s anti-corruption GenZ protest and the devolution of the youth movement into <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/relocate-reallocate-recover">arson, looting, and violence</a> after the targeted killing of protestors in September put the nation in the international spotlight. And the interest was especially keen in neighbouring New Delhi and Beijing.&nbsp;
The Nepal unrest has sparked similar protests across the world from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-genzs-inspired-filipinos">the Philippines</a> to East Timor, Madagascar and Peru. But there is also worry in India where exposure of #nepokids on social media as well as corruption in high places could instigate copycat youth unrest.
And in China, there is still a lingering memory of the deadly protests in 1989 Tiananmen Square. But the Chinese also suspect that some in the GenZ movement have links to free-Tibet. &nbsp;
Foreign policy experts in Nepal reject conspiracy theories about foreign backing for the GenZ, characterising it as mostly triggered by home-grown outrage over chronic corruption of the governing elite.&nbsp;
Throughout its history Nepal has always had to balance the geo-strategic interests of its neighbours: the British in India and the Chinese Empire, and more recently independent India and Communist China.
When former PM K P Oli resigned, he had <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/when-xi-meets-modi-and-oli">just returned from a visit to Beijing</a> and was a week away from making an official visit to India. A new Nepali prime minister typically makes the first visit to India, but Oli broke that tradition last year by going to China to sign the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework agreement.
"Oli was China's trusted partner supporting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/china-syndrome">Nepal’s participation in BRI</a> and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)," says geopolitical analyst Sanjay Upadhya. "Now, some in Beijing are apprehensive that there is external support for the youth protests that contributed to Oli’s sudden departure. It is perceived as a strategic setback for China."
Despite an ongoing dispute with India over a 364 sq km border territory, Nepal is heavily dependent economically on India with which it has an open border.&nbsp;
Rulers in Kathmandu have usually leaned over backwards to be closer to China to counterbalance India’s gravitational pull following a strategy of ‘equidistance’ between the two giant neighbours.&nbsp;
Growing American and Western disinterest in the region is making India and China more assertive towards smaller nations. Educator Dovan Rai says, “China is also becoming more aggressive and trying to show its presence in and around South Asia.”
She adds, “Nepal is an important neighbour for China, especially considering issues it regards as sensitive, like the Dalai Lama and Tibet.”
Indeed, the Chinese are said to be suspicious about the links that the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-historic-youth-dissensus">GenZ movement</a> was infiltrated by elements linked with Free Tibet or with US-based interests.&nbsp;
What must have especially raised eyebrows at the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu was that the Dalai Lama’s office in exile in India congratulated Sushila Karki — the first time in history it has sent such a greeting to a new prime minister of Nepal.&nbsp;
Although Nepal’s two neighbours do not see eye-to-eye, both agree and are worried about instability in Nepal, and if it might trigger a refugee crisis, empower extremist factions, or attract Western interference.&nbsp;
Nepal’s September protests were preceded and succeeded by similar movements in the region and around the world. In light of this global eruption of youth frustration, and desire to lead from the front, the hardline governments of Nepal’s two neighbours are undoubtedly wary of the possibility of similar unrest within their own borders.&nbsp;
‘India advocates democratic legitimacy, while China prioritises control and predictability. Recent upheavals demonstrate that neither democracy nor stability alone suffices for sustainable nationhood,’ Upadhya wrote in a recent blog.
With early elections scheduled for 5 March, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/one-month-later">the main challenge for Karki’s transition government</a> is to maintain dialogue and establish consensus between youth groups, political parties, and other agitating forces to participate in polls — all while ensuring there is no covert external influence.&nbsp;
Indeed, with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-democracy-keeps-doubting-itself">Nepal’s democracy</a> at stake as well as new political forces with competing interests set to battle it out in a new political landscape, experts warn that there could be powers that will want to fish in troubled waters.&nbsp;
Explains Dovan Rai: “Along with soft power, foreign countries including our neighbours could intervene in the online information space to promote their interests in Nepal. Fake narratives and disinformation could be spread &nbsp;through digital platforms. We must be careful and vigilant about our digital space.”

Neighbourhood watch on Nepal

The autumn mountaineering season is not over yet, and already there have been 12 fatalities on Himalayan peaks in Nepal.
Of the 1,450 climbing permits issued, 436 were for Mt Ama Dablam (6,812m), 374 for Mt Manaslu (8,163m) and 186 for Himlung Himal (7,126m). There were deaths on all three mountains.
The death of two French climbers on Ama Dablam happened before unseasonal blizzards hit the mountains. But Cyclone Montha from the Bay of Bengal brought on high winds and up to 1m of snow in the peak trekking and mountaineering season.
This increased avalanche conditions, and made helicopter evacuation of stranded and injured climbers difficult. Lower down the mountains, more than 1,000 trekkers from Nepal and around the world were stuck in the Annapurnas, Manaslu circuit and the Khumbu.
However, there have also been allegations that it was not just the weather that delayed rescues. Multiple levels of bureaucracy and the need for flight permits to restricted areas like Manang and Manaslu critically delayed evacuation flights.
Italian climbers Farronato Stefano and Caputo Alessandro were found dead in their tent at Panbari Himal Camp I (6,887m) in the Manaslu area. They had been trapped by heavy snowfall since 28 October, and their bodies were found on 4 November by a team from the expedition organisers, Sherpa Alpine Trekking Service. The team was made up of high level mountain guides and expedition leader Valter Perlino.
The team had been climbing to Camp 3 but decided to descend to base camp because of thrombosis in Perlino’s left foot. The two climbers who would eventually get trapped decided to break at Camp I, a decision that would prove fatal after the projected six-day snowfall arrived two days early.
“They were sleeping in a tent and were buried under 2.5 metres of compacted snow. It happened during the night between Thursday and Friday. While they were sleeping, absurd,” said Perlino.
A deadly incident took place the morning of 3 November, when five foreigners and two Nepalis died in an avalanche on Yalung Ri at 5,630m in the Rolwaling. They were part of a larger group of 15 that were acclimatising for an attempt on the nearby Dolma Khang (6,332m).
Local authorities in Gauri Shankar Conservation Area say calls were immediately made to helicopter companies as well as various ministries in Kathmandu that have to issue permits to fly to the region bordering China.
But the permits for rescue flights to Rolwaling Valley were delayed by eight hours. Rescue flights in these areas require permission from the Ministry of Tourism, the Ministry of Defence, the Home Ministry, and the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN).
Experts say this should be exempted in times of emergency when time is of the essence. CAAN spokesperson Pratap Babu Tiwari claimed to not know of the avalanche on Yalung Ri and deflected questions to the permission department.&nbsp;
There was a similar tragedy on Himlung Himal in Manang as well. Australian Chin-Tark Chan, 49, was climbing with 8K Expeditions and fell ill on 27 October at about 6,800m, developing snow blindness and loss of mobility. The guides immediately called the US insurance company Global Rescue for authorisation of a longline rescue.
Global Rescue refused, saying a rescue at that height would violate Nepal’s aviation rules and put the pilot at unacceptable risk. They asked the guides to transport Chan to Camp 3 at 6,400m to a permitted altitude. Seeing it was a life-or-death situation for its client, 8K called in an aerial rescue anyway, but the helicopter could not land due to bad weather. Chan died slightly below Camp 3 on 29 October.
Global Rescue said in a statement that it was ready to send in a helicopter after Chan had been transported to Camp 3, but several hours were lost for that attempt, and the weather did not get better in the next few days.
To underscore just how dangerous helicopter rescues in the Himalaya can be in bad weather, a chopper from Altitude Air skidded off the helipad at Lobuche below Mt Everest while trying to rescue trekkers in whiteout conditions.&nbsp;
CAAN announced a ban on flights during blizzards or dense fog. While rescue missions are often heroic and courageous, they should not be foolhardy if conditions are unsafe and the risk to pilots and rescuers too high. This autumn was a lesson for future expeditions and for the Nepal government.&nbsp;
The Italian duo on Panbari were caught out by snow that arrived two days ahead of schedule, but the group on Yalung Ri should have postponed their ascent after multiple warnings from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology to avoid high altitudes.

Deadly autumn in Himalayan climbing

Traditional donors have sharply scaled back their aid commitments to developing countries over the past year. Some, like the United States, have virtually eliminated their aid programs. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), official development assistance (ODA) from member countries <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2025/04/official-development-assistance-2024-figures.html" target="_blank">declined by 7.1%</a> in 2024, its first annual drop in six years. This trend was not limited to a few major donors. Of the 33 members of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC), 22 slashed their aid budgets, and only four countries met the United Nations’ target of allocating 0.7% of gross national income to ODA. The outlook for the coming year offers little hope for improvement, as major DAC donors have announced additional cuts. Most notably, US President Donald Trump’s administration has suspended most foreign aid and dismantled the Agency for International Development (USAID), which dispersed most US government aid dollars. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom plans to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyrkkv4gd7o" target="_blank">reduce aid spending</a> from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% by 2027. Similar retrenchment across Europe and North America is reshaping international assistance, disrupting humanitarian and climate-related programs, and creating financing gaps in critical sectors such as health, education, and clean energy. In our 2017 book <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/going-beyond-aid/B48F59C6D8D2790D403A1A0C44B37612" target="_blank">Going Beyond Aid</a>, we urged developing-country governments to reduce their dependence on foreign aid, not only because it was becoming an unreliable source of funding, but also because other, better ways of financing development were becoming more available. That message is more urgent than ever. As reliance on aid becomes untenable, the international community must mobilise a broader array of financing sources to advance green and sustainable growth. This includes national development banks, industrial investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, and institutional investment in public markets, as well as innovative mechanisms such as debt swaps and public-private partnerships (PPPs). These tools can unlock domestic resources, attract long-term investors, and create synergies between public goals and private capital. Equity investment offers a promising avenue for engaging non-traditional development partners while reducing developing countries’ dependence on debt. Government investment funds, public and private financial institutions, and other private actors can participate by taking equity stakes in public enterprises, financing infrastructure projects, or joining PPPs. Such participation not only alleviates debt burdens but also improves the performance and management of public assets. As government-funded, mission-driven institutions, public development banks (PDBs) have the potential to provide patient capital for green and sustainable investment in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs). Building on the <a href="http://www.dfidatabase.pku.edu.cn/index.htm" target="_blank">pioneering database</a> of public development and financial institutions created by the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University, future research can identify effective ways to harness these institutions to fuel low-carbon growth. Responding to growing demand from the economies of the Global South, development partners have increasingly adopted an “entire value chain” approach to the green transition in recent years. This strategy facilitates transfers of low-carbon technologies, diffusion of digital innovations (including trade in services), and industrial modernisation, enabling countries included in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to accelerate their shift toward sustainable development. Empirical research supports this approach. An analysis covering 139 countries <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-first-evidence-of-a-take-off-in-solar-in-africa/" target="_blank">finds</a> that, following policy directives to incorporate green and low-carbon principles into the BRI, carbon intensity (CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP) among participating countries declined significantly between 2013 and 2022. These findings are consistent with another <a href="https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-first-evidence-of-a-take-off-in-solar-in-africa/" target="_blank">recent study</a> showing how China’s solar-energy expansion has helped transform Africa’s power sector. Investment in infrastructure and industrial development can also generate positive spillover effects. Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jors.70023" target="_blank">shows</a> that the presence of at least one Chinese-financed infrastructure project in a second-order administrative region (comparable to a municipality) is associated with a 5% increase in nighttime luminosity – a widely used proxy for economic activity. Neighbouring regions experienced a 10-15% rise in luminosity, indicating that the benefits of such projects extend well beyond the immediate investment site.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251104131124_1a11d248a89b0785bc7d7f1d9f721e7e7a2563cbd579c3c672a0900220c19171.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20251104131124_1a11d248a89b0785bc7d7f1d9f721e7e7a2563cbd579c3c672a0900220c19171" data-rendition-name="original" width="720" height="405" loading="lazy" alt="development aid and China"></figure>  These outcomes underscore the critical role of infrastructure investment, particularly in energy and transportation projects. By improving electricity access, affordability, and connectivity, they reduce energy poverty, bolster public services, and stimulate economic activity in underserved areas. To meet the evolving challenges of development finance, both traditional and non-traditional donors and creditors should move beyond aid and adopt multidimensional strategies that combine trade, investment, infrastructure, green technology, and digital connectivity, including fintech solutions, to support EMDEs. Importantly, such collaborations should be viewed as a mutual learning process in which partners assume complementary roles and shared responsibilities. To be sure, there have been missteps along the way. China’s financing of coal-fired power plants before 2021, for example, had slowed reduction in CO₂ emissions. But these outcomes, once recognised as policy errors, can help strengthen accountability and foster self-correcting mechanisms within the international development ecosystem. Through ongoing learning and adaptation, global partners can build a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable framework for development finance. © <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a> Justin Yifu Lin, a former World Bank chief economist and Senior VP, is the honorary dean of the National School of Development and director of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University. Yan Wang is Senior Academic Researcher at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center.

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