Himalayan meltdown

Climate mitigation targets are being rolled back worldwide, and time is running out for saving the Himalayan icecap.

That was the unsaid message of the three-day Sagarmatha Sambaad international climate conference hosted by the Nepal government in Kathmandu this week.

The gathering ended with a 25-point Call For Action, but drew criticism for being yet another talk shop, regurgitating jargon and deflecting blame for lack of seriousness in reducing emissions, adapting to weather extremes in the region, and failure in cross border cooperation.

“The event put Nepal and Everest on the global climate map and had geopolitical benefits for Nepal,” says climate policy analyst Arjun Dhakal. “But it was a missed opportunity for Nepal to strongly push climate-smart infrastructure, transboundary early warning systems and highland research.”

Nepal unveiled its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 with mitigation targets for 2030 and 2035, and its first Biennial Transparency Report with emissions data from 1994 to 2022 and projections up to 2050.

Although Nepal has met previous targets for forest cover (46% of area) and made progress in promoting electric transport, fossil fuel use is growing. The Third NDC targets a 17.1% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions and 26.8% by 2035. This could have a price tag of $73.74 billion — most of it from international climate finance at a time when money for it is drying up.

Nepal also hopes to increase electricity generation to 28,500MW by 2035, up the sales of electric public vehicles to 90%, and operate at least 100km of integrated electric bus, trolley and light rail transit in Kathmandu Valley, and build 300km of electric train network.

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These are lofty promises at a time when the government's next budget has a huge revenue shortfall, and the Ministry of Finance is expected to increase taxes on battery-operated vehicles which have seen a huge increase due to past rebates.

“Climate change has become political, big emitters aren’t even respecting global targets. So it is very unlikely they are listening to us,” says water expert Madhukar Upadhyay. “Nepal just does not have the political stature to push global commitments. But we could have narrowed the focus and taken the lead on regional action.”

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted above-normal rainfall and temperatures for South Asia for monsoon 2025. Pre-monsoon rains this year are above normal and could be a sign of things to come.

“Rainfall patterns have changed, they are shorter, have higher intensity and are localised. Mudslides are now a big problem,” says Upadhyay. “We need specific intervention for specific places, taking into account geological and other factors to increase preparedness.”

Too much water is a problem, but so is too little. Nepal has suffered chronic winter drought, causing natural springs to go dry — affecting food security and pushing outmigration.

The Climate Impact Survey 2022 put droughts as the number one climate concern of most Nepalis, but it barely got a mention in the plush conference hall this week. Transboundary pollution and black carbon deposition accelerating glacier melting also could have done with more attention.

One key proposal at Sagarmatha Sambaad was to establish a climate fund for Himalayan nations. But given the geopolitical tensions after the India-Pakistan conflict this month, and the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, this is even less likely.

Says Arjun Dhakal: “The dialogue could have been more impactful if we had taken concrete steps to set up the Himalayan climate fund instead of just proposing it.”

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The next round of Sagarmatha Sambaad is planned for 2027, and if present warming trends continue, global average temperature will have exceeded 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. And experts say the Himalaya warms 0.7°C above the global average — making glaciers of High Asia melt even more rapidly.

Of the estimated $400 billion annually required for loss and damage, only $768.4 million has been pledged to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) since the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund during COP28. Even then, only $321 million has been paid into the FRLD.

The efforts to reduce emissions have declined globally in recent times, regardless of advancement in clean energy transition, and some say as the developing world forms its climate action entirely around climate financing, they will also lose their moral ground when advocating for reducing emissions.

“We are running out of time, we cannot keep waiting for the loss and damage fund,” says Upadhyay. “Nepal’s own upcoming budget can do much for climate action if we prioritise emission reduction and preparedness.”