Climate mitigation targets are being rolled back worldwide, and time is running out for saving <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">the Himalayan icecap</a>.&nbsp;
That was the unsaid message of the three-day Sagarmatha Sambaad international climate conference hosted by the Nepal government in Kathmandu this week.
The gathering ended with a 25-point Call For Action, but drew criticism for being yet another talk shop, regurgitating jargon and deflecting blame for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint">lack of seriousness in reducing emissions</a>, adapting to weather extremes in the region, and failure in cross border cooperation.
“The event put Nepal and Everest on the global climate map and had geopolitical benefits for Nepal,” says climate policy analyst Arjun Dhakal. “But it was a missed opportunity for Nepal to strongly push<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya"> climate-smart infrastructure</a>, transboundary <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/yes-quakes-can-be-forecast?%2F">early warning systems</a> and highland research.”
Nepal unveiled its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 3.0 with mitigation targets for 2030 and 2035, and its first Biennial Transparency Report with emissions data from 1994 to 2022 and projections up to 2050.
Although Nepal has met previous targets for forest cover (46% of area) and made progress in promoting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-journey-to-electric-public-transport">electric transport</a>, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fossil-fools">fossil fuel </a>use is growing. The Third NDC targets a 17.1% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions and 26.8% by 2035. This could have a price tag of &nbsp;$73.74 billion — most of it from international climate finance at a time when money for it is drying up.
Nepal also hopes to increase electricity generation to 28,500MW by 2035, up the sales of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-journey-to-electric-public-transport">electric public vehicles </a>to 90%, and operate at least 100km of integrated electric bus, trolley and light rail transit in Kathmandu Valley, and build 300km of electric train network.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-public-in-public-transport">The public in public transport</a>, Sonia Awale
These are lofty promises at a time when the government's next budget has a huge revenue shortfall, and the Ministry of Finance is expected to increase taxes on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/evs-hybrids-and-plug-ins?%2F">battery-operated vehicles</a> which have seen a huge increase due to past rebates.
“<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/act-now-on-climate">Climate change </a>has become political, big emitters aren’t even respecting <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/combining-ipcc-targets-with-sdgs">global targets</a>. So it is very unlikely they are listening to us,” says water expert Madhukar Upadhyay. “Nepal just does not have the political stature to push global commitments. But we could have narrowed the focus and taken the lead on regional action.”&nbsp;
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted above-normal rainfall and temperatures for South Asia for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">monsoon</a> 2025. Pre-monsoon rains this year are above normal and could be a sign of things to come.&nbsp;
“Rainfall patterns have changed, they are shorter, have higher intensity and are localised. Mudslides are now a big problem,” says Upadhyay. “We need specific intervention for specific places, taking into account geological and other factors to increase <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/on-high-monsoon-alert-in-nepal">preparedness</a>.”
Too much water is a problem, but so is too little. Nepal has suffered chronic <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-suffers-another-winter-drought">winter drought</a>, causing natural springs to go dry — affecting food security and pushing outmigration.&nbsp;
The Climate Impact Survey 2022 put droughts as the number one <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/climate-change-hits-himalayan-rice?%2F">climate concern</a> of most Nepalis, but it barely got a mention in the plush conference hall this week. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-transboundary-haze-affects-nepal">Transboundary pollution</a> and black carbon deposition accelerating <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">glacier melting </a>also could have done with more attention.
One key proposal at Sagarmatha Sambaad was to establish a climate fund for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/from-the-north-pole-to-the-third-pole">Himalayan nations</a>. But given the geopolitical tensions after the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nukes-in-the-neighbourhood">India-Pakistan conflict</a> this month, and the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, this is even less likely.
Says Arjun Dhakal: “The dialogue could have been more impactful if we had taken concrete steps to set up the Himalayan climate fund instead of just proposing it.”&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya">Climate change is a disaster in the Nepal Himalaya</a>, Sonam Choekyi Lama
The next round of Sagarmatha Sambaad is planned for 2027, and if present warming trends continue, global average temperature will have exceeded 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. And experts say the Himalaya warms 0.7°C above the global average — making <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains">glaciers of High Asia melt</a> even more rapidly.&nbsp;
Of the estimated $400 billion annually required for loss and damage, only $768.4 million has been pledged to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) since the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund during COP28. Even then, only $321 million has been paid into the FRLD.
The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal">efforts to reduce emissions</a> have declined globally in recent times, regardless of advancement in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-can-lead-in-zero-carbon">clean energy transition</a>, and some say as the developing world forms its climate action entirely around climate financing, they will also lose their moral ground when advocating for reducing emissions.
“We are running out of time, we cannot keep waiting for the loss and damage fund,” says Upadhyay. “Nepal’s own upcoming budget can do much for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-nepal-can-finance-climate-action?mibextid=Zxz2cZ">climate action</a> if we prioritise emission reduction and preparedness.”

Sonia Awale

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Himalayan meltdown

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b74799c7e80680e062398jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo : GOPEN RAI/NT ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>The Sagarmatha National Sambaad held this week was a dress rehearsal for a bigger international event slated for April, Nepal’s own version of Davos. Fittingly, the theme for the national gathering was ‘Climate Change, Mountains and the Future of Humanity’. The title may be grandiose, but that is because at the rate of warming, mass extinction is an imminent threat. Thresholds agreed on in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Paris in 2015</a>, and forecasts in last year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan Assessment</a> brought out by <a href="https://www.icimod.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICIMOD</a> may have to be revised because the rate of polar ice melt predicted for 2050 is already beginning to happen.The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen from 300 parts per million (ppm) at the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1820 to 415ppm today. Cascade effects like the loss of albedo as Arctic ice melts, the undermining of the West Antarctic Ice Shelf by warm ocean currents, methane from melting permafrost in Siberia means global warming is not linear.Greenhouse gas emissions from the mass burning of fossil fuels in the past 200 years have warmed the atmosphere by 1.3oC. Another 1.5oC increase will happen in the next 30 years. And due to a phenomenon called ‘elevation dependent warming’, the Himalayan mountains are expected to warm 0.3oC faster than the rest of the world.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan ice will be nearly gone during this century</a>. The impact on biodiversity, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/women-in-climate-hot-spots-face-challenges-adapting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weather</a>, stability of slopes, society, economics and ultimately politics, will be catastrophic. There is just not enough time to adapt.Which is why it is important for Nepal to take the lead in drawing global attention to the unique crisis faced by the Himalaya, for this does not just affect us but 1.2 billion people living downstream from Asia’s water towers.While global CO2 cutbacks are put on fast-forward, Nepal and other countries in the region need to quickly come up with ways to reduce risk, and to manage the severe disruptions in natural systems that are sure to gain pace in the coming decades.Even without <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the climate crisis</a>, Nepal faces <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">enormous environmental challenges</a>. Our rivers are ravaged by sand mining, mountains are mauled by excavators, infrastructure is undercutting gains in forestry. Air pollution in urban areas exceed accepted international standards all year round, waste management is a mess, plastic litters the countryside.The climate emergency is happening in parallel with an unprecedented transformation in all spheres of life. Nepal used to be known as a predominantly rural, agriculture-based society. Not anymore.Agriculture now contributes only 27% of the economy. More than 60% of Nepal’s population lives in urban corridors.But 70% of Nepalis still rely on biomass for cooking and heating, which gives us the advantage of being poor – there is still time to leapfrog directly to a green economy, bypassing fossil energy. <img width="500" height="326" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b747d9c7e80680e062399jpeg.jpg" alt="">The proliferation of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19354#.XkKKbdIza70">household biogas plants</a> that has reduced the pressure on forests, but only 3% of the population use it. There is vast untapped potential to extend this, as well as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-bullshit/">utility-scale biogas plants</a>. Making electricity accessible and affordable will enable more families to switch to electricity for cooking and space heating, reducing our per capita carbon footprint by bringing down LPG imports, as well as improving indoor air quality.It is no use anymore blaming historical emissions by industrialised countries and rising fossil fuel use in neighbouring India and China for melting our mountains. if we do not move towards clean energy ourselves. Cutting air pollution will not just improve our health, but also reduce soot deposition that accelerates glacial melting.There is a tendency in Nepal to blame everything on the climate crisis. Food deficit in the Karnali, outmigration, or floods in the Tarai, pre-date the climate crisis. If we address those structural issues, we as a nation automatically become climate resilient.Nepalis emit only 0.2 tons per capita per year of fossil carbon (Qatar does 40) whatever we do will not make a big dent. Nepal needs to switch to a green economy and renewable energy not to save the planet, but to save our economy from the mounting burden of petroleum imports.We need a government with single-minded focus on creating jobs with renewable energy projects and tourism development In the final analysis, everything rests on improving governance, and setting far-sighted goals and vision to be prepared for this global emergency. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> An editorial 10 years ago this week delved into people in rural Nepal still dying of easily preventable diseases because of the lack of doctors, hospitals and affordable drugs. Sadly, that editorial could have been written today as the world deals with the coronavirus.Excerpt from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/489" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #489</a> of 12-18 Feburary 2010:This is still a land where people die of simple, preventable causes. A lung or stomach infection, easily treated by modern medicine, can be fatal in rural Nepal. We know what to do to improve public health. Apart from more work on awareness, the country needs more hospitals and affordable drugs. Half the doctors in Nepal practice inside the country's Ring Road, so more needs to be done to retain them in district hospitals by giving them incentives to do so. <img width="374" height="600" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101132/636b747f9c7e80680e06239ajpeg.jpg" alt="">Diseases like TB, malaria, encephalitis, typhoid, diarrhoea and pneumonia can be treated with drugs. But they are not just medical problems. The root causes of sickness in Nepal are societal discrimination, economic disparity and political neglect. These cannot be treated with medicine.

Declaring an emergency

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

sagarmatha-sambaad

Himalayan meltdown

Declaring an emergency

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138