<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059449c7e80680e0ce1dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="684"/><figcaption>Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As the results of Sunday’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lower-than-usual-turnout-in-nepal-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal and provincial elections</a> trickle in, there are signs that Nepal’s voters have made their dissatisfaction with the country’s serial politicians clear.While early results show that the rivalry between the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML that dates back 30 years is still as fierce as ever, Nepal’s politics may be seeing the dawn of a new era.Heavyweights of established parties trail in several important constituencies, the Maoist-Centre and the Unified Socialists have fared poorly everywhere, the royal-right parties have not got the votes they expected, and the five-party governing coalition is in shambles.The reason for this appears to be mainly that many supporters of the NC and Maoist-Centre voted for independents or rebel candidates, rejecting the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">alliance of convenience</a> between the right and left-wing parties. Although the UML is also losing a lot of votes to new and independent candidates, the opposition UML appears to have been able to better ride out the storm.Rabi Lamichanne’s newly-minted independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and other independent candidates are also faring well in many constituencies. Even in places where they are not leading, they show that many voters have abandoned the established parties they used to be loyal to. In many ways, election results so far show a rejection by voters of Nepal’s serial politicians.Indeed, many Nepalis did not even bother to vote with Sunday’s polls recording the lowest turnout in recent years at only 61%. In Rolpa where the Maoist insurgency began in 1996, turnout was a mere 40% and it was similar in Gorkha from where Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre is contesting.It may be too early to call this an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">‘independent wave’</a> in Nepali politics, but the RSP, other independents and younger leaders from the main parties could be the new kingmakers.“From the figures so far, it is clear that the RSP’s strong results show that voters are fed up of the same old faces,” says political analyst Punarjan Acharya.He adds: “It is also clear that the UML has done better than many expected despite internal party strife and having to do battle with the ice-party alliance.”Overnight, Prakash Man Singh of the NC was declared winner in Kathmandu-1, where he narrowly edged our Rabindra Misha by a mere 218 votes. This was a repeat of 2017 when Mishra, who had contested the same constituency from the alternative Bibeksheel Sajha, had lost to Singh by a narrow margin. This is the fourth win for the scion of one of the NC’s founding leaders, Ganesh Man Singh.In Lalitpur-2, UML candidate Prem Bahadur Maharjan received 15,025 votes to beat Sudin Shakya of the new Hamro Nepali Party and Buddha Ratna Maharjan of Rastriya Swatantra Party. Maharjan appears to have benefited from the new smaller parties splitting the votes.Elsewhere in Bhaktapur-2, Durlav Thapa Chettri of NC and Mahesh Basnet of UML are battling it out, but the former is now leading with nearly 1,000 votes more.In one of the earliest outcomes, NC  had a clean sweep in Mustang with Yogesh Gauchan, 29, was elected as the youngest MP so far. The pair of Namdu Gurung and Bikal Sherchan also won provincial seats in Gandaki.The NC  has also managed a provincial seat from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manang</a> with Munundra Jung Gurung’s win. Independent Rajiv Gurung has locked in another seat from the district having won unopposed earlier.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059469c7e80680e0ce1e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="833" height="589"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059489c7e80680e0ce1e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594d9c7e80680e0ce1e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390594f9c7e80680e0ce1e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Till press time on Tuesday morning, the NC had won three provincial seats and was leading in 45 constituencies while UML has one win with its candidates maintaining their lead in 35 others.The Maoist Centre leads in just 11 areas while the Unified Socialists and RSP with leads in 8 constituencies each. The UML is expected to do better than the NC in seats under the Proportional Representation (PR) mechanism.The RSP is also forecast to add many more PR seats, perhaps even as the fourth-largest party in the new federal Parliament. This is a dramatic rise for a party that was formed only six months ago by charismatic former tv anchor Rabi Lamichhane and who was joined by young and forceful candidates campaigning for good governance, accountability, better service delivery and job-creation.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-balen-the-rabi-phenomenon/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane</a> himself has fallen behind the NC’s Umesh Shrestha in Chitwan-2, but that could be because the votes so far counted are mainly from coalition strongholds.RSP is, however, leading in Chitwan-2 where Hari Dhakal is ahead of NC’s Biswo Paudel and UML’s Surendra Pandey, the MP from the constituency in 2017. Former House Speaker Onsari Gharti of the Maoist Centre is also trailing behind Rastriya Swatantra Party’s Sobita Gautam in Kathmandu-2.The RSP’s Toshima Karki, a physician, is edging past the UML’s Amrit Khadka to lead in Lalitpur-3. Maoist Centre’s Pampha Bhusal who is also Energy Minister is trailing behind the two.The RSP’s, Shishir Khanal, and education reformer, is far ahead of former police chief Sarbendra Khanal of the UML in Kathmandu-6, and is likely to win. The RSP is also leading in constituencies in Kaski, Jhapa and Rupandehi districts.“The coalition votes were split and scattered. The way I see it, losers this time are Maoist Centre, Unified Socialist, and the Mashes-based JSP and LSP,” says analyst Acharya.He adds that this is the direct result of the Maoist Centre and Unified Socialists (US) seeking more constituencies than their ability. “If the NC had a candidate in 25 more constituencies instead of distributing it to the Maoists and US, it would have ensured a bigger victory for the party,” explains Acharya. “Except now, they have pretty much gifted many of seats to the UML.”Elsewhere, the NC’s General Secretary <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/young-turks-not-getting-their-turn/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a> looks set to win Kathmandu-4 with UML’s Rajan Bhattarai trailing. Thapa has publicly declared that he would like to be the next prime minister and replace those “who have had many chances in the past to serve the country”.In Kathmandu-7, it looks like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-daughter-also-rises/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manushi Bhattarai</a> will have a hard time catching up with her rivals — despite support from the coalition. Her father, former Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai had swapped his Gurkha constituency with Pushpa Kamal Dahal to win Maoist support for Manushi.The royal-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) chair <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Prasad Lingden</a> has taken an initial lead in Jhapa-3 where the UML-backed leader is up against the coalition’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula of NC.Uday Shumsher Rana of NC has taken a lead in Lalitpur-1 slightly edging past Nawaraj Silwal of UML. In Kathmandu-5, it’s the battle of new faces with Hamro Nepal Party’s Suman Sayami just ahead of Biraj Bhakta Shrestha of Rastriya Swatantra Party in the vote counting.Erstwhile separatist <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/ck-raut-madhes-movement,1677" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CK Raut</a> has also taken an initial lead in Saptari-2 with Jayprakash Thakur of Lokatantrik Samjbadi and Upendra Yadav of Janata Samajbadi trailing behind. Maoist Centre on the other hand has also taken an initial lead in Jajarkot with Shakti Basnet ahead of Niraj Acharya of UML.

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Nepal poll results signal upset

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058e39c7e80680e0ce1c4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"/><figcaption>Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>A lower than usual turnout in Sunday’s elections in Nepal signals <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dejected-voters-reject-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">voter apathy</a>, and could favour non-establishment parties.An Election Official official said he expected the turnout to be about 61% of the nearly 18 million eligible voters. This is lower than the 66% in local polls in May and 68% in the last <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-goes-on-in-nepals-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federal elections in 2017.</a><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-goes-on-in-nepals-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> </a>“We had expected 70% turnout, and although we have not got all the results yet, our preliminary estimate is that only 60% of those in the voter lists cast their ballots,” Ram Prasad Bhandari of the Election Commission told Nepali Times.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058e69c7e80680e0ce1c5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1600"><figcaption>Residents in Janakpur voted with the sunrise. Photos: SAMEER MANI DIXIT</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058ea9c7e80680e0ce1c6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1600"><figcaption>Votes in Janakpur line up to cast their vote for federal and provincial elections.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058ed9c7e80680e0ce1c7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1364"><figcaption>Voters in Laltipur's Banglamukhi turn up early to cast their ballet. Photos: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058f09c7e80680e0ce1c8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1364"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058f49c7e80680e0ce1c9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1364"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058f79c7e80680e0ce1cajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1364"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058fa9c7e80680e0ce1cbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1364"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639058fd9c7e80680e0ce1ccjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>A lower than usual turnout would favour the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/depending-on-independents/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">National Independent Party, independent candidates and those who ran for elections as rebel candidates</a> after not getting tickets from their own parties.Experts we spoke to cited various possible reasons for the lower turnout: fewer young males in the country because of outmigration, the requirement that voters have to go to their home districts to vote, apathy towards coalition parties, and the lack of agenda of the established parties.“Voters seem to have thought that these are the same old parties,” says Nilambar Acharya, analyst and former ambassador to India. “Committed voters will cast their ballots anyway, but many others might have felt voting will not make a difference.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059019c7e80680e0ce1cdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption>A glimpse of the Election Day in Rampur. Photos: RSS and SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059059c7e80680e0ce1cejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="2250"><figcaption>Sunsari</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059099c7e80680e0ce1cfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1350"><figcaption>Jajarkot</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390590d9c7e80680e0ce1d0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1734" height="1301"><figcaption>Syangja</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059109c7e80680e0ce1d1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1734" height="1301"><figcaption>Syangja</figcaption></figure>While the independent candidates are expected to have a strong showing in urban centres and along highway towns, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/voters-cynical-about-electoral-alliances/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the ruling coalition and opposition UML</a> are still expected to do well in rural areas.Political analyst Indra Adhikari who voted in Nuwakot district, said depopulation meant mostly elderly and children are left and this could be the main reason for low turnout.She added: “The other reason was the confusion about the ruling coalition. Many voters were asking why they should vote for the Maoists, who were responsible for killing my relatives in the war.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059149c7e80680e0ce1d2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1152"><figcaption>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba in Dadeldhura. Photos: RSS</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390591b9c7e80680e0ce1d3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1536"><figcaption>Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal's Kamal Thapa in Hetauda.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390591e9c7e80680e0ce1d4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400"><figcaption>UML chair K P Oli in Bhaktapur.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059229c7e80680e0ce1d5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"><figcaption>Nepal Swatantra Party's Rabi Lamichhane.</figcaption></figure>The 5-party ruling coalition is made up of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Maoists among others, and they were enemies during the ten-year insurgency in which 17,000 Nepalis were killed.Confusion created by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/battle-of-ballots/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">coalition candidates</a> also appears to be the reason behind violation and suspension of voting in certain centres across the country.In the most violent incident in Triveni Municipality of Bajura district in the far-west, one 25-year-old was killed and several severely injured when police had to fire on a crowd attacking the polling station when it was about to be closed. The injured were airlifted to Surkhet by a Nepal Army helicopter.Elsewhere in Tama Kosi Municipality of Dolakha, police opened fire to control a dispute between cadre from the governing coalition and the opposing UML. According to DIG Kiran Bajracharya, the police fired 15 rounds to ensure safety of the polling station and the voters when locals pelted stones at them. One policeman was injured.Similarly, in Siraha’s Karjanha-6, the police fired three rounds after a cadre of JSP Unified Socialists both made a go to capture the ballot boxes. Also in Rautahat, the police had to open fire at a polling station.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059259c7e80680e0ce1d6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1364"><figcaption>Photos: SUMAN NEPALI, GOPEN RAI and RSS</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059289c7e80680e0ce1d7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1010"><figcaption>Ballets ready to be collected in Fuglung.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390592c9c7e80680e0ce1d8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1014"><figcaption>Voting in Argakhachi.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/6390592f9c7e80680e0ce1d9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221207101212/639059339c7e80680e0ce1dajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Several polling stations saw voting disrupted with at least 44 voting centres out of more than 22,000 affected. By 3:30PM, voting in 15 centres had to be stopped.However, the Elections Commission says voting in most places was peaceful and orderly. Chief Election Commissioner Dinesh Thapalia said ballot counting would start Sunday night itself with results for First Past The Post candidates expected to come in a week by 27 November.Complete election result, however, is expected to come in only in two weeks which once again showed the need for electoral reform including a quicker, more reliable counting system.Nepalis across the country were already lining up in the morning to cast their votes with a total of 11,543 candidates fielding for 825 seats, 275 parliament and 550 provincial assemblies.

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Lower than usual turnout in Nepal polls

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131124/637233fc9c7e80680e0c490djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="700"/>A citizen’s campaign to defeat all elder prime ministers in forthcoming elections is going viral in the Nepali cybersphereThe ‘Let’s Defeat Ex-Prime Ministers’ movement is gaining traction, and reaction from the ageing leaders of the political parties shows that they are worried.But can we expect the Young Turks in the main parties to behave any better?One of the more charismatic members of the younger breed of politicians is Gagan Thapa. But even he is nearing 50. In televised Parliament proceedings, he usually gives fiery speeches.Even though his Nepali Congress (NC) is leading the 5-party coalition, Thapa had been critical of the government. He is in the dissident group opposed to the NC contesting the elections in an alliance with the Maoists.But these days, when Gagan Thapa speaks in Parliament, for example on the possibility of Nepal soon being blacklisted internationally for money laundering, his voice is muted.As General Secretary of the NC, Thapa wanted answers on Maoist Finance Minister Janardan Sharma secretly including a corporate middleman in the budget drafting process. But by reinstating Sharma, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba ignored and demeaned his own party colleague.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pre-poll-calculations/">Pre-poll calculations</a>, Shristi KarkiSince then, Gagan Thapa has not spoken up about the scandal. This is very unlike him, and probably indicates his trepidation about being refused a ticket for elections three months away.When more independent-minded Gagan Thapa, Biswaprakash Sharma and Dhanraj Gurung were elected to senior NC posts last year, there was optimism that Nepal’s foremost democratic party would now see fresh direction.Many thought the superannuated old guard would now be swept away and under Gagan Thapa’s leadership the party and country would turn a new leaf  through better governance and transparency.Alas. We have not seen much of Thapa’s influence on the NC’s functioning. In fact, Prime Minister Deuba prefers to take advice from Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal rather than his own party general secretary.These days, Thapa and other NC dissidents look spent and fatigued. In fact, there is more passion and energy among untethered candidates.Deuba is now 76. He is prime minister for the fifth time. He has teamed up with Dahal, and spends most of his time these days giving plum constituencies to his Maoist partners than to the NC’s own leaders like Gagan Thapa.Deuba’s coalition is sinking deeper in a quagmire of corruption and impunity. As a young democrat, Deuba once defied the Panchayat system and did not compromise on principles. Seeing what he is up to now, one wonder what it was all for.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rise-of-the-independents/">Rise of the independents</a>, EditorialThe track record of the NC’s ‘younger’ leaders is making us rethink the wisdom of passing the torch to a new generation of leaders. Just because a politician is young does not seem to guarantee that they will be for reform.Age does not have anything to do with governance ability. Elders have got a bad reputation because of the septuagenarians who have messed up the country, but we have plenty of examples of corrupt, greedy leaders who are young.Instead of expecting youth leadership to be a cure-all for all our ills, we should be on the lookout for competent, honest leaders with a wealth of experience in governance — even if they are long in the tooth.In fact some of the best prime ministers this country has ever had were nearly 80 when they held office: Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and Manmohan Adhikari.This does not mean that youth leaders in all the parties and among independents should wait till they also get old. It is understandable that when aged politicians exhibit chronic incompetence even when they were repeatedly given the chance at leadership positions, Nepalis will hanker for a generational change. But being young should not be the sole criteria for being elevated to a leadership position.The grizzled leaders are not going to just hand over the baton to younger leaders. The youth have to show that they have what it takes. After all, Deuba was 49 when he became prime minister for the first time in 1995, by challenging the leadership of ageing Girija Prasad Koirala.Besides Gagan Thapa, there are Shankar Pokhrel, Ram Kumari Jhankri, Gokarna Bista and Barshaman Pun, and many others in the main parties who show promise.But at the rate we are going, when these politicians get to leadership positions, they will no longer be young. And leaders like Gagan Thapa will then be challenged by 30 something leaders telling them to step aside.Arjun DhakalRead more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/election-calculation/">Election calculation</a>, Santa Gaha Magar

Young Turks not getting their turn

<figure><img width="1200" height="1584" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161148/636d1dae9c7e80680e0af3cfjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU ACHARYA/NEPALI TIMES</figcaption></figure>During the 2017 elections, Baburam Bhattarai’s Naya Shakti Party propped up the Nepali Congress (NC) elsewhere across the country while seeking support in Gorkha, where Bhattarai himself would run, and Rasuwa where his party’s Prem Tamang was contesting.
But when it came time to register his candidacy, Tamang withdrew from the MP race and chose to run for state assembly instead, putting his support behind billionaire businessman Mohan Acharya, the bankroller of the NC.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/purchasing-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Purchasing power</a>, Ramesh Kumar
Acharya had registered his candidacy after convincing party chair and prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, presumably with money being exchanged, to let him run for office.
The construction <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/bulldozing-democracy-in-nepal,4184" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">contractor who spent a lot more money</a> while campaigning, would go on to win Rasuwa. A year later during an interview, Bhattarai himself accused his party colleague Tamang of selling out his candidacy to Acharya.
Acharya’s opponent was Janardhan Dhakal, another construction businessman who had the UML ticket. The race in Rasuwa was therefore a battle between who could spend more money. Both candidates hosted lavish parties, had extravagant motorcades, and distributed cash to buy vote banks.
What happened in Rasuwa in 2017 is a reflection of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s current electoral system</a> — competent candidates have no chance against powerful tycoons who have bought election tickets from party bosses.
Even as they spend extraordinary money to woo voters, Nepal’s political parties have failed to be transparent about their funding in official reports.
Donations from businesses are the primary source of funding for all political parties, and that is where the rot sets in.
However, the amount of financial support received from well-wishers, supporters and businesses are not broken down in the accounts of any of the parties. In fact, they are not mentioned at all.
Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-democracy-too-expensive-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Is democracy too expensive for Nepal?</a>, Laxmi Basnet
The fact that all financial assistance is provided in cash and not through the banking system makes it easy for parties to circumvent institutions that oversee election management, even though The Political Parties Act 2017 stipulates that any transactions above Rs25,000 should go through the banking system along with the details of donors.
There is a similar lack of transparency when it comes to details about any fixed assets in the parties’ audit report. In many cases, private donors pick up the tabs for the renovation of party offices just to be above the board, like what the NC’s Umesh Shrestha did to get himself appointed minister by Prime Minister Deuba.
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-business-of-politics-undermines-nepals-democracy/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s politico-business nexus</a> began during the post-Panchayat era after the multiparty system encouraged collusion and quid pro quo. This co-dependency between business and politics became more embedded in subsequent elections.
“When political parties have to spend money to win elections, they start cultivating businessmen and then it is you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours,” explains economist Keshav Acharya.
Over the years, watching from the sidelines was not enough, and Nepal’s rich directly entered politics as the country began its transition into a federal republic following the end of the Maoist conflict.
Former Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal resigned in 2011 after Finance Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikari sought the counsel of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-richest-man-in-the-pandora-papers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">industrialist Binod Chaudhary</a> during the budget formulation process. He says Nepal’s political parties are at present governed not by institutional systems but the will of individual leaders who mobilise money by helping businessmen launder theirs.
“This practice was introduced by Girija Prasad Koirala in the NC and has been continued by both UML Chairman K P Sharma Oli and Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal,” says Khanal.
Indeed, public sector enterprises like Harisidhi Brick and Bhrikuti Paper Factory were privatised under the first elected government led by Girija Prasad Koirala, and turned into prime real estate.
The Ministry of Finance refunded value-added tax (VAT) to entrepreneurs on consumer goods for almost a decade after 2008, essentially putting VAT paid by Nepali citizens into the pocket of businesses, prompting questions of policy irregularities by the IMF.
Similarly, other NC leaders like former finance minister Ram Sharan Mahat formed the Tax Commission in 2014 which gave tax cuts worth Rs21 billion to big businesses, the case related to which is still pending in the courts.
More recently, Finance Minister Janardan Sharma is alleged to have made policy changes to benefit special interests, like the Shanker Group, through a bill to replace the budget brought by the Oli government.
Of late, businesses have also been actively involved in the infighting within parties that has characterised recent Nepali politics.
The photo of NCP co-chairs K P Oli and Prachanda having lunch with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/red-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">red rice at the home of business tycoon Durga Prasai</a> to discuss party unity went viral and prompted widespread ridicule.
The two leaders also held several discussions at the residence of construction contractor Sharada Prasad Adhikari who was untouchable because of his proximity to Dahal, as well as at homes of businessmen like Niraj Govind Shrestha and Ajeya Raj Sumargi. Sumargi often acts as a frontman for Dahal’s business dealings.
Businessmen like Capt Rameswar Thapa and Moti Dugar were actively involved in negotiations related to party unification between UML leaders K P Sharma Oli and Madhav Kumar Nepal, who often met at their private residences.
Similarly, Oli's name has been linked to the Yeti Group, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/so-far-so-good/the-silent-skies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">death of its founder Ang Tsering Sherpa</a> in a helicopter crash in 2019 was a big blow to the former Prime Minister who had close personal dealings with him. Sherpa served as Oli’s fixer and was rewarded with coveted real estate and other deals for his conglomerate.
Entrepreneurs who transition into politics do so with the intention of influencing the state machinery to get business-related benefits. Moreover, interactions between business and politics are not limited to Nepali figures, as evidenced by the audiotape of Krishna Bahadur Mahara asking a Chinese businessman for Rs500 million on behalf of the Maoists during Constituent Assembly elections in 2013.
To be sure, politicians have always been making licensing and policies easier at the behest of banking, insurance, medical education, telecommunications, as well as in the stock market, allowing a select few to take advantage of the resulting decrease in competition.
Congress leader and former vice-chairman of the National Planning Commission Govinda Raj Pokhrel notes that money has become the lubricant in Nepali politics. In fact, voters themselves seem to seek out leaders who can take care of their financial interests.
“Unless we clean up our democratic system, our democracy is headed to the edge of a cliff,” he says.
<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/Electoral-reform,1083" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Former Election Commissioner chief Bhoj Raj Pokhrel</a>, in his recent article 'Political Finance Management: Opportunities for Electoral Reform' has proposed ideas for electoral reform, including the provision of grants to political parties to manage election-related expenses.
This proposal is not a new concept. Past governments have discussed this and former Finance Minister Prakash Chandra Lohani even made a related proposal in the 2004 budget.
UML leader Surendra Pandey argues that if political financing is to be made transparent, the government should provide financial support based on the votes received by each party.
Former Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal argues that political parties should seek donations from Nepali citizens, which would consequently make them more accountable to the public.
Achyut Wagle, a professor of economics at Kathmandu University, notes that while government funding for parties is a viable option in an ideal democracy, it is questionable whether a country like Nepal can do it honestly.
Says Wagle: “It is more important to have transparency in political financing. Selling political positions for money has become the norm, and we need to ensure a democracy where businessmen cannot buy their way to power.”

The business of politics

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.