<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/toxic-tihar">Stubble burning in northern India and Pakistan</a> darkens the sky over the region every year in October. We cannot wait for next October to try to fix the problem — planning to resolve the problem should begin now.&nbsp;
Farmers even in the Nepal Tarai have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/going-up-in-smoke">started burning wheat harvest residue</a> because of the shortage of farm hands, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/smoke-screen">this April the haze combined with wildfire smoke</a> made people sick, blocked off mountain views forced flight cancellations.
Apart from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/breathing-can-kill-you">Kathmandu Valley’s vehicular emissions</a>, transboundary smoke blown in by prevailing winds from India accounts for much of the pollution in the country.
“The westerly wind cannot cross over the high Himalaya, and remains trapped on the southern side in Nepal, Bangladesh and India,” explains R L Verma, a transboundary air pollution expert at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok. "The pollution cannot disperse and is especially bad during winter due to inversion where it mixes with the fog.”&nbsp;
Prabhakar Shrestha, a research scientist at Bonn University, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-transboundary-haze-affects-nepal">wrote in Nepali Times in 2021</a> that the long-term average of winter Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from December-February over the last 20 years in the region shows that winter haze extends throughout the Indo-Gangetic plains, with higher readings for eastern Bihar, West Bengal and Bangladesh, adjoining the Nepal Tarai.
"This alarming increase in winter AOD is due to an increase in crop-residue burning, rapid urbanisation, and industrialisation in the Indo-Gangetic belt," he stated.
There are now modelling studies that can trace emissions to their source which allow atmospheric scientists to pinpoint how much of certain particulate matter is coming from within Nepal, or from across the border. These models can also be used to predict future concentrations.
“Increasingly <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mW7YmSSnes">we now have more and more pollution data</a> which has empowered people to demand,” added Verma, who was in Kathmandu recently to train researchers here on air quality monitoring, forecasting and developing an emissions inventory.
In the 1990s, air pollution levels in China were much worse than in India, but Beijing systematically improved AQI levels. A similar clean up campaign in northern India would have downwind benefits for Nepal as well.
The <a href="http://www.sacep.org/pdf/Declarations/05.Male-Declaration-on-Control-and-Prevention-of-Air-Pollution-and-its-Transboundary-Effects-for-South-Asia.pdf">Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia</a>, signed between Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in 1998 set a precedent for regional cooperation for transboundary problems.
For the last 25 years, the group has supported national governments in policy formulation and strengthening regional cooperation as well as establishing monitoring networks. But the fact that air pollution levels in the region have got much worse means that the Malé Declaration has failed to meet its lofty goals.&nbsp;
There are now plans to revive regional cooperation in transboundary pollution control, but most policy changes have to be made and implemented within national and sub-national jurisdictions. For example, in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/toxic-tihar">October 2023 crop residue burning was much reduced in the Indian state of Haryana</a> because of strict policy, but it increased in Punjab because of laxer controls (photo, above).
All this soot is blown up to the mountains, where it <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/dirty-snow-defrosts-nepal-s-mountains">accelerates the melting of glaciers</a> which are already shrinking due to global warming. The ‘black carbon’ particles are deposited on the ice and snow, making them melt faster.&nbsp;
<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19368">Black carbon</a> is also a short-lived climate pollutant along with methane, hydrofluorocarbons and tropospheric ozone which are responsible for up to 45% of current global warming.&nbsp;
They are expected to account for half the warming effect in the coming decades if emissions are not reduced, but because of their shorter shelf life, reducing them is a low-hanging fruit that also has public health benefits.&nbsp;
Two factors affect air quality: emissions and seasonal weather. We cannot control weather, but can reduce emissions by switching to cleaner alternative fuels such as hydroelectricity, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-bullshit">Compressed Natural Gas</a> (CNG) and solar power. Similarly, farmers need incentives to adopt alternatives to open burning after harvests.
“Every scientific problem has a political solution. We need to involve the government in finding solutions,” says Verma. “Air pollution can be controlled, it just needs political will to work regionally.”&nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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The politics of pollution

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637202fc9c7e80680e0b27e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"/><figcaption>Vehicles are one of the biggest emitters of PM2.5 and other pollutants in Kathmandu. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>It is that time of the year again when smog makes <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu’s air hazardous to health</a>. Hospitals are swamped not with Covid, but COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease).Once more, there is a flurry of media headlines about the dangerous concentration of suspended particles smaller than 2.5 microns from diesel exhaust.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/happy-new-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Happy New Air</a>, Sonia AwalePublic awareness about air pollution is at an all-time high, the average life expectancy of Kathmandu’s residents is reduced by at least four years. Yet, nothing happens. Why?“The awareness and knowledge have not translated into corrective action,” explains environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar. “We know about vehicle emission tests but we ignore it, open burning is bad but we don’t stop, we have the opportunity to reduce air pollution with electric mass transport but we don’t invest in it.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203009c7e80680e0b27e4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Air pollution was directly linked to at least 42,100 deaths in Nepal in 2019. Almost half of that was due to breathing in particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter which can cross the air blood barrier in the lung capillaries. Most of those particles come from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/green-sticker-green-light-to-pollute/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vehicle emission</a>.From 1990 to 2015, the number of vehicless in Nepal grew by 1,995,404 — most of them in Kathmandu Valley. In five years, that figure doubled to 3,987,267.This figure doesn’t include the exploding demand for cars and motorcycles after the end of the Covid second wave in mid-2021. Nepal spent Rs543 billion in importing vehicles, transport equipment and spare parts in four months from mid-July to mid-October, against Rs357 billion and Rs418 billion for the same periods in 2020 and 2019.“There has been an unexpectedly high demand for private vehicles in Nepal after the pandemic, especially two wheelers given the public’s hesitancy to use buses due to coronavirus fears,” says Dhruba Thapa of the National Automotive Dealers Association.<iframe style="border: none;" title="Total vehicles in Nepal" src="https://e.infogram.com/e0cdbfd0-0b3c-4f57-851e-7aced6e69116?src=embed" width="700" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><a style="color: #989898!important; text-decoration: none!important;" href="https://infogram.com/e0cdbfd0-0b3c-4f57-851e-7aced6e69116" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Total vehicles in Nepal</a><a style="color: #989898!important; text-decoration: none!important;" href="https://infogram.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Infogram</a>Raju Chettri, CEO of the MAW Enterprises that imports Yamaha bikes in Nepal has a similar observation. He saw a decline in the annual sales of two wheelers from about 250,000 units to 190,000 right after the pandemic. But this year, the sales went up to 350,000 units.“There are two reasons behind this: pent-up demand and reduced use of public transport because of Covid fears,” Chettri says.There are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more than 3.1 million two-wheeers in Nepal</a>, over one million of them in Kathmandu. They are adding to the capital’s foul air, as they are up to 10 times more polluting per passenger kilometre than buses and cars.<iframe style="border: none;" title="Total Motorbikes in Nepal" src="https://e.infogram.com/ea449cd7-2598-4cd4-8ae2-cd91858f9553?src=embed" width="700" height="700" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe><a style="color: #989898!important; text-decoration: none!important;" href="https://infogram.com/ea449cd7-2598-4cd4-8ae2-cd91858f9553" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Total Motorbikes in Nepal</a><a style="color: #989898!important; text-decoration: none!important;" href="https://infogram.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Infogram</a>Two-wheelers also emit invisible toxic gases like carbon monoxide, benzene and nitrous oxides, and increase the concentration of street-level ozone. Motorcycle exhaust may not be as visible as diesel exhaust, but they are highly poisonous — especially when there are so many of them. Besides exacerbating respiratory diseases, the gases are carcinogenic, causing cardiovascular diseases and Alzheimer’s.The solution is to shift rapidly to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cleaner electric vehicles</a>, not just for healthier air but also to meet Nepal’s net-zero pledge in Glasgow and to reduce the country’s burgeoning petroleum import bill.“The priority has to be on electric public transport and supporting infrastructure,” says environmentalist Tuladhar. “Electric buses are more expensive than diesel ones, so the government has to help with capital, and better manage Kathmandu’s public transport.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203039c7e80680e0b27e5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This week, Nepal opened its first electric charging station powered by solar panels for the Lumbini Development Trust. Similar charging stations can be set up for public and private vehicles in existing bus parks across Nepal and along highways. Sajha Yatayat which is procuring 40 electric buses is also trying to turn the former trolley bus terminal into a charging station.Shilshila Acharya of the Avni Center for Sustainability agrees that the priority should be on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electrifying public transport</a> and encouraging bicycle lanes. She says, “Replacing cars with more cars even if electric only promotes consumerism. We have to give people reliable alternatives.”Kathmandu Valley Air Quality Management Action Plan held its first implementation committee meeting this week, during which it discussed lunching of a USAID-funded project for air pollution and a forecasting system with technical support from ICIMOD.“The problem of air pollution will take some time to be solved but we have started our homework,” says Indu Joshi of the Department of Environment. “At the moment, our biggest challenge is controlling open burning.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/637203069c7e80680e0b27e6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2000" height="2625"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Apart from transport, garbage burning and biomass fuel for household heating and cooking are also contributors to Kathmandu’s dirty air. The problem is made worse in winter due to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-weather-elevates-air-pollution-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Valley’s topography that traps surface pollution</a> in an inversion layer.Improper <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-load-of-rubbish-kathmandus-garbage-problem,4039" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">solid waste management in Kathmandu</a> means locals burn garbage by the riverbanks near residential areas — while, as studies show, segregation of waste at homes can reduce the city’s garbage volume by up to 80%.There is no other problem that is so directly linked with the health and economy of the country as urban air pollution. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Covid-19 lockdown in 2020</a> is proof that Kathmandu can be cleaned up, it just needs <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the right leadership and the political will</a> to back it up.Says Shilashila Acharya: “Our policies on mobility and air pollution have to be people- and culture-centric, instead of focusing only on technology. We must build public pressure to force the politicians into action.”A public opinion poll in this paper just before the 2017 elections showed that a majority of Nepalis were concerned about the health impact of pollution. Since 2022 will be dominated by campaigning for the next election, this could be turned into the main criteria for candidates to win votes.

Breathing can kill you

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161156/636d1f909c7e80680e0af470jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2000" height="2625"/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>On Thursday morning, Nepali Times photographer Amit Machamasi was greeted with a shocking sight when he drove up to Nagarkot to take pictures of overnight snowfall. Below him, dozens of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2498#.Yc5xVy2B2t8" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">brick kilns</a> were spewing out smoke and steam into the city’s air (photo).The rain had washed down suspended particles, but the brick kilns were pumping more smoke into the air we breathe. There have been attempts to relocate brick kilns away from the densely-populated capital, but political patronage means owners are still fouling the air.After the 2015 earthquake damaged most of the Valley’s brick factories, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/brick-factories-still-using-old-polluting-technology,2078" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">some adopted cleaner technology</a> to reduce emissions. Public pressure and urban growth then pushed most brick factories to the city’s fringes, and they are now  concentrated around Bhaktapur – most of those in the photograph are traditional dirty chimneys.After two years of forced closure during the pandemic, the brick kilns are once more working overtime to fill a backlog of demand from builders. But with politicians bogged down in power struggles, local leaders are too distracted to address the pandemic and pollution crises – both of which affect the human respiratory system.In a public opinion poll in this newspaper just before the 2017 elections, most respondents said <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dirty-politics-dirty-air/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">air pollution</a> topped their list of concerns. Pollution has gotten worse since then, but it is unlikely that dirty air will figure in election speeches in 2022.“We have cleaner options like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earth-bricks-for-cleaner-and-healthier-kathmandu,4161" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">interlocking earth bricks</a>, so we just need public pressure to make it an election issue,” says environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar.A pre-pandemic research showed that 40% of suspended particulates in Kathmandu’s air was from brick kilns, 30% from vehicular emissions, and 20% from open burning of trash and biomass. With the exponential increase in cars and motorcycles, the concentration of vehicular pollution at street level is now 70%.“<a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/breathing-is-hazardous-to-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hazardous pollution levels</a> in winter have become the norm, yet the government is not doing much to control it,” says Shilshila Acharya of the Avni Centre for Sustainability. “The public should demand action from our leaders.”Although public awareness about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-weather-elevates-air-pollution-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">air pollution</a> is at an all time high, it has not translated into action by municipalities or the federal government – even though in a democracy elections would be the way to force accountability from public officials.Says Tuladhar: “Campaigning in 2022 for elections, particularly for local government, will give us a platform to build political will to reduce air pollution. People have to be outraged, and the good news is that we have some young and educated leaders taking the lead.”In 2019, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">air pollution</a> resulted in the deaths of 42,100 Nepalis, according to one research. Many more were indirectly affected. Vehicular emission, garbage and agricultural residue burning and brick kilns were the main sources of toxic ambient air.Besides shifting to cleaner and greener brick-making technology, controlling garbage burning, and a rapid transition to electric vehicles with government investment in electric mass transit, would be steps that would quickly improve air quality in Kathmandu.Air pollution is leading to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">premature death of Kathmandu’s citizens</a>. It has a huge impact on the economy. The solution is political, and elected officials need to respond to the crisis.Adds Shilshila Acharya: “Politicians as always are big on promises but we demand that they first protect our health by cleaning up the air we breathe. It is a basic right guaranteed by the Constitution. Don't talk about more grandiose plans, just clean up our air first.”

Happy New Air

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan