<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86329c7e80680e067839jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>An alliance of five political parties and factions opposed to Prime Minister K P Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolution of the House and call for early elections </a>have approached the Supreme Court with a writ petition to have the move overturned. The five who went to the Supreme Court on Monday included the Nepali Congress (NC), Maoist Centre (MC), the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and dissidents from Oli’s own UML, as well as the 146 signatories.PM Oli's UML immediately evicted 11 rebel members including Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Bhim Rawal from the party, and asked 12 others for a clarification within 24 hours. The writ petition asks the Court to rule that since Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/">staked his claim</a> to form the new government with a majority in Parliament, he should be appointed prime minister. It also asks that since the House dissolution was un-constitutional, it should be reinstated. All signatories from the five groups were present at the Court to register the petition, led by Deuba, MC Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, UML’s Madhav Kumar Nepal and JSP’s Upendra Yadav, and Durga Poudel of the Janmorcha. However, only 23 of the 26 who were originally with the Nepal faction signed. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86359c7e80680e06783ajpeg.jpg" alt="">Meanwhile, the main JSP led by Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato has decided to join K P Oli’s election government after being assured of seven ministerial portfolios. The party took the decision after the Cabinet got President Bhandari’s seal of approval on an ordinance passing a bill that would grant citizenship by descent to children of Nepali parents — a long-standing demand of the Mahdesi community.Although Oli and his party had vehemently opposed the bill last year, saying that it would allow Indians to marry Nepalis and for their children to be citizens, it appears that he has agreed to it now to save his government. The other JSP demand for the release of MP Resham Chaudhary, who has been detained for the massacre of policemen Tikapur in August 2015, has not yet been met.The latest political crisis in Nepal in the middle of a raging Covid-19 second wave started when President Bidya Devi Bhandari gave parties in Parliament 21 hours on Wednesday to stake their claim to form the next government because Prime Minister Oli said he could not get majority support from MPs.  <img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86389c7e80680e06783bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b863a9c7e80680e06783cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="960" height="641" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b863c9c7e80680e06783djpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="750" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86409c7e80680e06783ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86429c7e80680e06783fjpeg.jpg" alt="">However, after the NC, MC and the JSP and UML factions collected 149 signatures, Oli rushed to Shital Niwas to put forward support of all members of his UMl and the JSP, even the ones who had sides with the opposition coalition. This was seen by many as a violation of the constitution.President Bhandari on Saturday 2AM dissolved Parliament and called fresh elections in November, because she said neither side had fulfilled the requirement to form a new government.In the past two days, the prime minister and president have come under blistering attack from not just the opposition, but a cross section of civil society and media commentators. The student wing of the NC has been staging small protests in the capital despite the lockdown, burning Prime Minister Oli and President Bhandari in effigy.  <figure><img width="960" height="637" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86449c7e80680e067840jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A student group trying to burn the prime minister and president in effigy were apprehended by police on Sunday. Photo: Amit Machamasi</figcaption></figure>Nepali Times discussed recent political developments with Nepal’s politicians. <img width="113" height="164" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86479c7e80680e067841jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"There was no choice but to dissolve parliament" Niru Pal, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli was not able to get a vote of confidence per article 76 (4) of the constitution, and as such, Parliament was not able to come up with a solution. The opposition had been setting up constant roadblocks against PM Oli, all the while failing to establish a majority to form a government. Consequently, a government could not be formed as per Article 76 (5) of the Constitution either. We got word that MPs from our party had signed in favour of Sher Bahadur Deuba to become prime minister as if this were an independent political system. However, 11 of them have issued a statement alleging misuse of signatures. Therefore the government had no choice but to dissolve Parliament.I find some absurd and unnecessary criticism of PM Oli. Those critics are also well aware that the President is not an executive, and had no grounds to block the recommendation of the caretaker Prime Minister. The President would have made the same decision even if it were Sher Bahadur Deuba in PM Oli’s position. She has decided based on the spirit of the constitution. <h2>"An Oli-led election will self-destruct" Ganesh Shah, Maoist Centre</h2> PM Oli’s loyalists and his opponents have become polarised. The opposition was unable to take unified and effective action against PM Oli’s unconstitutional move, which is the result of his ambition and arrogance. The first parliament dissolution was a blow to our Constitution, but this dissolution might be its death knell.  <img width="172" height="248" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86489c7e80680e067842jpeg.jpg" alt="">Civil society and the backers of the Constitution and democracy must fight against this political regression with a unified front. The legal process will not be enough — Parliament must be re-established through political initiative. The chances of an election taking place are slim. Moreover, an election under Oli’s leadership will be self-destructive. Any election at this point must be held only after a re-instated Parliament elects a new Prime Minister. <img width="170" height="246" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b86499c7e80680e067843jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"The PM always wanted to dissolve parliament" Rachana Khadka, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli always wanted to dissolve parliaments and he did — twice.  Even after the Supreme Court reinstated the lower House in January, all of his recent political moves showed he was going to do it again. The decision to dissolve a Parliament in which he once held a majority is ironic. It goes against the spirit of the Constitution.Moreover, the legitimacy of the President’s office has also come into question. We have a system of checks and balances to ensure that our political institutions hold one another accountable if mistakes are made. As such, the office of the President does not exist to do the prime minister’s bidding.Hundreds of Nepalis are dying due to Covid-19 every day. The primary focus at this time should have been to save lives. Dissolving the parliament at a time like this is like dancing over the pyres of Nepalis. The state elections in India contributed to the spread of the virus over there. We should have learned our lesson from our neighbours. <h2>"Parliament dissolution is constitutional" Ashok Vyanju, President, Municipal Association</h2> This is the result of the inability of a democratically elected institution to facilitate nation-building, inter-political coordination and balance. The dissolution of Parliament and announcement of elections came after it was not possible to form a government constitutionally. The decision is therefore absolutely constitutional. The election will  make it possible to pursue a fresh mandate after our political problems are resolved. <img width="149" height="215" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864a9c7e80680e067844jpeg.jpg" alt="">Some have wrongly questioned the possibility of an election during a pandemic. India, South Korea, Japan, and other countries successfully conducted elections in the middle of the pandemic. We must be able to combat the virus and resolve our political problems simultaneously. <img width="176" height="250" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864b9c7e80680e067845jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"Legal and political measures must be followed" Dila Sangroula, Nepali Congress</h2> The incumbent Prime Minister had to take a vote of confidence within 30 days or resign as per article 76 (3) of the constitution. Even then, the NC, MC, and JSP coalition along with the Nepal faction of the UML had collected 149 signatures to form a new government following the president’s directive.However, the signatures to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba the Prime Minister were considered illegitimate. The subsequent decision to dissolve parliament at midnight was unconstitutional, undemocratic and reactionary. Legal and political countermeasures must be pursued to undo it.The announcement of mid-term elections during a pandemic, when Nepalis are dying due to a scarcity of oxygen and ventilators, is nothing but a political drama staged by Oli in an attempt to hold on to power.  Why are we enabling this instead of trying to save lives? <h2>"A free and fair election must be ensured" Mohan Shrestha, RPP</h2> The two major Communist parties failed to deliver on the promises made when they were elected into government. NC and RPP are not to blame for their failure. As such, it is better to go to the polls than to continue like this. All of our political parties should establish an understanding as we move forward, and a free and fair election must be ensured. <img width="117" height="168" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864c9c7e80680e067846jpeg.jpg" alt="">We are in favour of the election, and an official statement from the RPP will come soon. However, we have no involvement in the polarised politics on both sides, and will not participate in any anti-Oil protests. West Bengal and the United States conducted elections during the pandemic. We must follow all safety protocols pertaining to the pandemic and do the same.  <img width="318" height="376" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111148/636b864d9c7e80680e067847jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"We must form a new party" Asta Laxmi Shakya, CPN (UML)</h2> After the Supreme Court overturned the NCPO, we came back to UML. But (PM Oli) did not give us any importance. He is still ignoring us. We cannot rely on Oli, we have to forge a new path. We have to form a new party, and not prolong this uncertainty.

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Political ball now in Nepal’s Supreme Court

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee429c7e80680e09ae16jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>An alliance of five political parties and factions opposed to Prime Minister K P Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-sets-elections-in-middle-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolution of the House and call for early elections </a>have approached the Supreme Court with a writ petition to have the move overturned. The five who went to the Supreme Court on Monday included the Nepali Congress (NC), Maoist Centre (MC), the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and dissidents from Oli’s own UML, as well as the 146 signatories.PM Oli's UML immediately evicted 11 rebel members including Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhalnath Khanal and Bhim Rawal from the party, and asked 12 others for a clarification within 24 hours. The writ petition asks the Court to rule that since Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/">staked his claim</a> to form the new government with a majority in Parliament, he should be appointed prime minister. It also asks that since the House dissolution was un-constitutional, it should be reinstated. All signatories from the five groups were present at the Court to register the petition, led by Deuba, MC Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, UML’s Madhav Kumar Nepal and JSP’s Upendra Yadav, and Durga Poudel of the Janmorcha. However, only 23 of the 26 who were originally with the Nepal faction signed. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee449c7e80680e09ae17jpeg.jpg" alt="">Meanwhile, the main JSP led by Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahato has decided to join K P Oli’s election government after being assured of seven ministerial portfolios. The party took the decision after the Cabinet got President Bhandari’s seal of approval on an ordinance passing a bill that would grant citizenship by descent to children of Nepali parents — a long-standing demand of the Mahdesi community.Although Oli and his party had vehemently opposed the bill last year, saying that it would allow Indians to marry Nepalis and for their children to be citizens, it appears that he has agreed to it now to save his government. The other JSP demand for the release of MP Resham Chaudhary, who has been detained for the massacre of policemen Tikapur in August 2015, has not yet been met.The latest political crisis in Nepal in the middle of a raging Covid-19 second wave started when President Bidya Devi Bhandari gave parties in Parliament 21 hours on Wednesday to stake their claim to form the next government because Prime Minister Oli said he could not get majority support from MPs.  <img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee469c7e80680e09ae18jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee489c7e80680e09ae19jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="960" height="641" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee4a9c7e80680e09ae1ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="750" height="500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee4c9c7e80680e09ae1bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="720" height="480" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131124/636cee4f9c7e80680e09ae1cjpeg.jpg" alt="">However, after the NC, MC and the JSP and UML factions collected 149 signatures, Oli rushed to Shital Niwas to put forward support of all members of his UMl and the JSP, even the ones who had sides with the opposition coalition. This was seen by many as a violation of the constitution.President Bhandari on Saturday 2AM dissolved Parliament and called fresh elections in November, because she said neither side had fulfilled the requirement to form a new government.In the past two days, the prime minister and president have come under blistering attack from not just the opposition, but a cross section of civil society and media commentators. The student wing of the NC has been staging small protests in the capital despite the lockdown, burning Prime Minister Oli and President Bhandari in effigy.  <figure><img width="960" height="637" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee519c7e80680e09ae1djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>A student group trying to burn the prime minister and president in effigy were apprehended by police on Sunday. Photo: Amit Machamasi</figcaption></figure>Nepali Times discussed recent political developments with Nepal’s politicians. <img width="113" height="164" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee549c7e80680e09ae1ejpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"There was no choice but to dissolve parliament" Niru Pal, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli was not able to get a vote of confidence per article 76 (4) of the constitution, and as such, Parliament was not able to come up with a solution. The opposition had been setting up constant roadblocks against PM Oli, all the while failing to establish a majority to form a government. Consequently, a government could not be formed as per Article 76 (5) of the Constitution either. We got word that MPs from our party had signed in favour of Sher Bahadur Deuba to become prime minister as if this were an independent political system. However, 11 of them have issued a statement alleging misuse of signatures. Therefore the government had no choice but to dissolve Parliament.I find some absurd and unnecessary criticism of PM Oli. Those critics are also well aware that the President is not an executive, and had no grounds to block the recommendation of the caretaker Prime Minister. The President would have made the same decision even if it were Sher Bahadur Deuba in PM Oli’s position. She has decided based on the spirit of the constitution. <h2>"An Oli-led election will self-destruct" Ganesh Shah, Maoist Centre</h2> PM Oli’s loyalists and his opponents have become polarised. The opposition was unable to take unified and effective action against PM Oli’s unconstitutional move, which is the result of his ambition and arrogance. The first parliament dissolution was a blow to our Constitution, but this dissolution might be its death knell.  <img width="172" height="248" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee559c7e80680e09ae1fjpeg.jpg" alt="">Civil society and the backers of the Constitution and democracy must fight against this political regression with a unified front. The legal process will not be enough — Parliament must be re-established through political initiative. The chances of an election taking place are slim. Moreover, an election under Oli’s leadership will be self-destructive. Any election at this point must be held only after a re-instated Parliament elects a new Prime Minister. <img width="170" height="246" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee569c7e80680e09ae20jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"The PM always wanted to dissolve parliament" Rachana Khadka, CPN (UML)</h2> PM Oli always wanted to dissolve parliaments and he did — twice.  Even after the Supreme Court reinstated the lower House in January, all of his recent political moves showed he was going to do it again. The decision to dissolve a Parliament in which he once held a majority is ironic. It goes against the spirit of the Constitution.Moreover, the legitimacy of the President’s office has also come into question. We have a system of checks and balances to ensure that our political institutions hold one another accountable if mistakes are made. As such, the office of the President does not exist to do the prime minister’s bidding.Hundreds of Nepalis are dying due to Covid-19 every day. The primary focus at this time should have been to save lives. Dissolving the parliament at a time like this is like dancing over the pyres of Nepalis. The state elections in India contributed to the spread of the virus over there. We should have learned our lesson from our neighbours. <h2>"Parliament dissolution is constitutional" Ashok Vyanju, President, Municipal Association</h2> This is the result of the inability of a democratically elected institution to facilitate nation-building, inter-political coordination and balance. The dissolution of Parliament and announcement of elections came after it was not possible to form a government constitutionally. The decision is therefore absolutely constitutional. The election will  make it possible to pursue a fresh mandate after our political problems are resolved. <img width="149" height="215" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee579c7e80680e09ae21jpeg.jpg" alt="">Some have wrongly questioned the possibility of an election during a pandemic. India, South Korea, Japan, and other countries successfully conducted elections in the middle of the pandemic. We must be able to combat the virus and resolve our political problems simultaneously. <img width="176" height="250" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee589c7e80680e09ae22jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"Legal and political measures must be followed" Dila Sangroula, Nepali Congress</h2> The incumbent Prime Minister had to take a vote of confidence within 30 days or resign as per article 76 (3) of the constitution. Even then, the NC, MC, and JSP coalition along with the Nepal faction of the UML had collected 149 signatures to form a new government following the president’s directive.However, the signatures to appoint Sher Bahadur Deuba the Prime Minister were considered illegitimate. The subsequent decision to dissolve parliament at midnight was unconstitutional, undemocratic and reactionary. Legal and political countermeasures must be pursued to undo it.The announcement of mid-term elections during a pandemic, when Nepalis are dying due to a scarcity of oxygen and ventilators, is nothing but a political drama staged by Oli in an attempt to hold on to power.  Why are we enabling this instead of trying to save lives? <h2>"A free and fair election must be ensured" Mohan Shrestha, RPP</h2> The two major Communist parties failed to deliver on the promises made when they were elected into government. NC and RPP are not to blame for their failure. As such, it is better to go to the polls than to continue like this. All of our political parties should establish an understanding as we move forward, and a free and fair election must be ensured. <img width="117" height="168" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee599c7e80680e09ae23jpeg.jpg" alt="">We are in favour of the election, and an official statement from the RPP will come soon. However, we have no involvement in the polarised politics on both sides, and will not participate in any anti-Oil protests. West Bengal and the United States conducted elections during the pandemic. We must follow all safety protocols pertaining to the pandemic and do the same.  <img width="318" height="376" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131128/636cee5a9c7e80680e09ae24jpeg.jpg" alt=""><h2>"We must form a new party" Asta Laxmi Shakya, CPN (UML)</h2> After the Supreme Court overturned the NCPO, we came back to UML. But (PM Oli) did not give us any importance. He is still ignoring us. We cannot rely on Oli, we have to forge a new path. We have to form a new party, and not prolong this uncertainty.

<img width="957" height="551" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121152/636ce60a9c7e80680e096745jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>On Wednesday, Nepal’s positivity rate was 24.5%. On 21 October 2020, when the country recorded its highest daily Covid-19 cases, the figure stood at 28.5%. At the pace the virus is spreading, it will not be long before one-third (or more) of daily tests turn positive.
Neighbouring India with 315,802 new cases and 2,102 deaths on Thursday is a shocking reminder of what is next door, across an open border. People are dying waiting for oxygen, hospitals are filled to the capacity, and drugs are in short supply.
It is too late for India to vaccinate its way out of this surge, and major cities have resorted to lockdowns and curfews again. This is not a second wave anymore, it is a tsunami. And, as we saw last year, the wave is lapping at our border.
Yet, here in Nepal, people are going about their lives as if there is no public health emergency. One might even say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/unmasking-the-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepalis are going out and about with vengeance</a>, unmasked and crowding in markets.
The government has more or less surrendered to the virus, and is putting the onus on citizens to protect themselves. It has shut down schools for a month, but there are still <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political rallies</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/biska-celebrations-begin-in-bhaktapur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">festival throngs</a>. Even king Gyanendra coming back from the Kumbh Mela with the virus, and celebrities like Madan Krishna Shrestha testing positive, does not seem to deter the public.
Looking at the numbers, it might look like current active cases are far below the daily average back in October. But the rate of infection is much steeper in the second wave.
We have all but forgotten how during lockdowns, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/birth-and-death-during-a-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pregnant women couldn’t go to hospitals</a> and how there was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/1-in-5-nepal-families-lack-food/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">food insecurity</a> and the crushing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic fallout</a>.
Lack of preparedness at the border checkpoints, minimal contact tracing and chronic limitation of health institutions persist.
Health Minister Hridayesh Tripathi has reassured the public that there will not be another lockdown if people are more careful. Prime Minister K P Oli in his New Year message said if the public took precautions, a new lockdown could be avoided.
Nepal’s economy was just beginning to recover from the impact of the earthquake and blockade six years ago when the pandemic hit. The tourism sector will now need at least five years to recover, joblessness is at its peak, manufacturing is still seeing negative growth, and agriculture yield will likely decline after a prolonged winter drought.
Nepal will conclude its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-fights-infodemic-to-push-vaccine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccination drive</a> this week after administering the second dose for those inoculated in the first phase. There are no vaccines left for the rest.
<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/1-6-million-vaccinated-20-million-to-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Close to two million Nepalis have been vaccinated</a> with either Covishield or China’s VeroCell shots. But the fate of the rest of the 19.6 million Nepalis that the government had targeted to inoculate remains uncertain. The Russian Sputnik V was recently granted conditional emergency use in Nepal, but through a private supplier.
The reasons for the new surge are the late arrival of vaccines in India and Nepal. But even the limited vaccination drive made both the government and the public complacent. Contact tracing has all but ceased, and many people stopped wearing masks. The other reason is that Covid-19 and its variants had a much higher infection rate.
There are now questions about whether the herd immunity building up that was probably keeping us safe so far, is not effective any more. What is new with the second wave is that it is affecting younger people and making them sicker. Unlike in the previous surge, patients in the 30-50 age group are arriving at hospitals with entire families infected.
Doctors are now faced with the unique challenge of treating children with Covid-19. This might mean a new set of health professionals, infrastructure and equipment as well as therapy and drugs.
Major hospitals in Kathmandu are already starting to feel the pressure with a steady inflow of patients requiring ICU and ventilator support. There is now a real danger that Nepal will face the same shortage of vaccines, oxygen and essential drugs that India is suffering.
This week marks the sixth anniversary of the devastating 2015 earthquake in which nearly 9,000 people were killed. The pandemic has so far killed 3,100 people. Most of those deaths in both disasters were preventable.
The Nepal government, meanwhile, is too busy with a power struggle in the ruling party, rendering the measures to control the new surge ad-hoc and haphazard.
The second wave is already here. Hospitals are soon going to be of no help. There are no more vaccines. The only way to deal with this is by adopting our own precautions: mask up, wash hands, and avoid crowds.
Sonia Awale

The Covid tsunami

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011118/636ccd869c7e80680e08bc86jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1018" height="622"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>There are 10 days to go for Nepal’s Parliament to reconvene as per the Supreme Court verdict on Tuesday.A lot needs to happen in that time, and a lot more is bound to happen. Much of it will depend on what Prime Minister KP Oli decides to do in the coming days. So far, he says he has no intention of resigning as demanded by Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the rival faction within his ruling NCP.If he does not resign, Oli’s only other alternative is to face a confidence motion in House. Here, it will be parliamentary arithmetics that will determine the course of events. Oli is now in the ironical position of mustering support from a House that he himself dissolved on 20 December.Oli was celebrating his 70th birthday on Tuesday when news came of the Supreme Court's decision. He continued partying, and has tried to exude confidence. His options, however, are limited.Even if the NCP is not formally split, it is behaving like two parties. There is too much bad blood between Oli and Dahal for the factions to reunite, and both leaders have discounted it. The Lower House has 275 seats, of which the NCP commands 173, the NC has 63, JSP 34, and 4 are with smaller parties. Of the NCP, the Dahal faction has 90 MPs and Oli claims to have 81, three are neutral.The NC commands the swing vote, and its president Sher Bahadur Deuba is being courted as king-maker by both NCP factions. On Thursday, senior NC leaders met to decide which faction to support, if at all. Many NC leaders say the party should stay away and focus on elections next year.Meanwhile, a small group of relatively neutral leaders have been trying to patch up Nepal and Oli’s differences to save party unity. Says Sher Bahadur Tamang, a former Oli supporter who defected to the Dahal camp: “There are many comrades who want Oli to propose Nepal as prime minister, and put the past behind. But given the distrust, it is not very likely.”These are the possible scenarios:<ul><li>Oli resigns, hands over prime ministership to Deuba, and joins a NC-led coalition. Although Deuba likes Oli, the NC rank and file do not.</li> 	<li>Oli resigns and hands over prime ministership to Madhav Kumar Nepal, whom he considers a lesser evil.</li> 	<li>Dahal-Nepal also court Deuba.</li> 	<li>Oli would like to pass an ordinance to allow his faction to split, but he does not have the requisite 40% in the Parliamentary Party.</li> 	<li>Bam Dev Gautam and Other NCP cadre lobby to keep the party united. (But both Oli and Dahal rejected the idea.)</li> 	<li>The Dahal faction prepares a no-confidence vote, but needs to register name of new PM. Will Deuba agree?</li> 	<li>Oli faces a confidence vote in the House, and loses. He resigns and the Dahal faction negotiates to form a new government.</li> 	<li>Oli wins a confidence vote, and woos some Dahal loyalists and the NC to form a government.</li></ul>The Oli faction is in deep consultation with advisers and senior ministers, and postponed a Standing Committee meeting of its faction on Thursday, ostensibly because of a need to do “additional homework”, according to Oli adviser Surya Thapa.Says Bipin Adhikari, an expert on constitutional law: “The only way to avoid prolonged political turmoil is the unlikely scenario that ageing leaders in both factions realise that such instability is not in the national interest and hand over the reins to a new generation of young leaders.”However, the septuagenerians in all main parties have shown no inclination to pass on the torch.

Parliamentary arithmetics

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd739c7e80680e08bc7ejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s Supreme Court on 23 February <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinstated the House of Representatives</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/supreme-court-puts-nepal-politics-back-on-track/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ordered Parliament to convene</a> within 13 days. The President, on the recommendation of Prime Minister KP Oli, will now decide when and how within the next 10 days Parliament will come into session. In the UK, any government that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/president-endorses-parliament-dissolution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolves the House of Representatives </a>becomes a caretaker government, and as such, the prime minister in such a circumstance is deemed  to have resigned. However, the right to dissolve the House of Representatives is no longer constitutional either in the UK or in Nepal. The steps that President Bhandari takes in the upcoming days will depend on whether she considers PM Oli a caretaker prime minister or the preceding prime minister. If it is the former, the president, as per the provisions of Article 76 of the Constitution, must immediately begin the process of forming a new government by appointing a new Prime Minister in consultation with the leaders of all parliamentary parties in the House. During this process, the caretaker Prime Minister, like the leaders of other parliamentary parties, is entitled to form a new government as the leader of their party.If, however, the president considers KP Oli a preceding prime minister, she may direct him to take a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives under Article 100 of the Constitution, which provides that the prime minister may table a motion at any time, if he deems it necessary or appropriate, to make it clear that he has the trust of the House.If the president agrees, the prime minister can continue the government with a vote of confidence in the House. Article 76 will only apply if the prime minister fails to obtain a vote of confidence.If the prime minister chooses not to follow either of those paths, Article 100 (4) of the Constitution allows one-fourth of the members of the House of Representatives who are present in Parliament to table a motion of no-confidence in writing.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/calm-before-another-storm-in-nepal/">Calm before another storm in Nepal</a>, Nepali TimesHowever, the process might be politically challenging as the motion must include the name of the next proposed prime minister. If the no-confidence motion is passed by a majority in the House of Representatives, the Prime Minister will be relieved of his post.In this political climate where the ruling NCP is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bitterly divided</a>, the Dahal-Nepal faction is demanding that Oli resign on moral grounds. The Election Commission has also not decided which faction of the NCP is the main party and which is the breakaway faction, while PM Oli maintains that he is the party chairman until the NCP general convention. As such, no party in the House of Representatives is in a position to form a unanimous government, and the next prime minister will have to form a coalition with two or more parties.It remains to be seen how much support Pushpa Kamal Dahal will get from his co-chair Madhav Kumar Nepal or Jhala Nath Khanal in his bid to become prime minister. Even with their support, chances of him forming a coalition government are unlikely if the Nepali Congress (NC), the second-largest majority in the House of Representatives, refuses to participate in the process.If NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba is to take the lead in forming a coalition government, then the Dahal-Nepal faction will need to justify its opposition to Prime Minister Oli on other grounds.The NC itself is in a dilemma over which faction of the NCP it should support. If the NC chooses to support the Oli faction, it could move towards forming a coalition with the current government. And even if it becomes part of a coalition government, the NC might not consider the premiership to be the endgame and choose instead to focus on the election. There are other strategies in which the NC might decide not to join the Oli-led coalition but to support his government from the outside, or choose to form a government led by Sher Bahadur Deuba while seeking support from the Oli faction. The challenge for the NC now is to decide what is constitutionally sound while being in the party’s best interests long-term.At this point, unity within the NCP leadership is unrealistic, and either faction will require a 40% agreement from the Central Committee and the Parliamentary Party should Oli or Dahal choose to register a new party.The only way to avoid a period of political turmoil is the unlikely scenario that ageing leaders in both factions realize that such instability is not in the national interest and hand over the reins to a new generation of young leaders.                   Bipin Adhikari, PhD, is an expert on constitutional law. <img width="82" height="109" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011114/636ccd769c7e80680e08bc7fjpeg.jpg" alt="">Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/house-of-cards/">House of cards</a>, Editorial

Legal path to new Nepal government

<img width="640" height="426" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc849c7e80680e08bc29jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) has by now squandered the overwhelming mandate it got in the 2017 elections to govern for five years, and its future now rests on an impending decision by the Supreme Court.While the verdict could go either way, what is certain is that one of the two NCP factions is going to lose out.  Whether it will be the establishment faction led by Prime Minister K P Oli or the breakaway group headed by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, will be decided in the upcoming weeks. Oli’s group is in  government and says it is preparing for snap elections in April-May, while Dahal’s supporters are in the streets demanding a reinstatement of the Lower House.Both are trying to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-tit-for-tat-show-of-force/">demonstrate their popular support</a> by renting <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">bigger and bigger crowds</a>, and thus influence the Supreme Court, and the Elections Commission which has to decide which faction gets the party’s Sun symbol and name. Both sides are sanguine that the Supreme Court and the Elections Commission will rule in their favour. Nepal’s current political crisis is not a result of any great ideological disagreement, but a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">personal power struggle</a> between Oli and Dahal after NCP unity. This may be why rallies by both Oli and Dahal have been packed with cadre and people bused in from the districts, and without much spontaneous popular participation so far.Whichever way the Supreme Court verdict goes, Nepal’s politics will be in turmoil as the power centres and politicians jockey for supremacy, even as regional geopolitics influence the outcome. Beijing has been openly lobbying against an NCP split, while the Indo-American alliance would like to see Nepal’s communists divided and weakened.“Even if the House is reinstated, a new struggle for supremacy will begin within the party to form an election government,” predicts political commentator Shyam Shrestha. “It will not be as easy as before when the NCP had a two-thirds majority, and the permutations and combinations of coalition-building will be wide open.”If the House is restored, Shrestha sees the Dahal faction forming a government in coalition with the Nepali Congress and Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal. But if the Court rules in favour of the dissolution, he sees instability and chaos.Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali admits that there is some uncertainty because of the wait for the Supreme Court decision. He says, “But once it rules in favour of dissolution, that will steer the country’s mood towards elections. The conditions are right for polls, the Nepali Congress, Janata Samajbadi Party and smaller parties are all ready, there are no major security issues, and the Election Commission is getting ready. So whoever gets a majority will govern the country. The alternative will be a return to unstable coalition politics of the past.” <img width="1371" height="914" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111011110/636ccc889c7e80680e08bc2ajpeg.jpg" alt="">However, the political futures of Oli and Dahal will also rest on the Supreme Court’s decision on the 13 writ petitions that are currently being heard. Oli’s ambitions will be derailed if the House is reinstated, while Dahal and his supporters will suffer a setback if it is not. So much rests on the Court’s decision that it has become a prestige issue for both sides, which could be why Dahal has been using threatening language towards the Election Commission and the Supreme Court, hinting that it is being influenced by Baluwatar.Some in the NCP see the possibility of the elections actually bringing the two factions of the NCP closer, but Central Committee member Beduram Bhusal disagrees. “There is just too much bad blood. For now, I see zero percentage possibility of reunification.”In case the House is restored, the choice for the Dahal faction is to go for election or agitation. However, it may not be so easy for Dahal and his supporters to “unleash a hurricane” as he has threatened.Bhusal, however, says his party has not planned for an elections scenario. “Even if the house is not restored, there will not be any elections. Why plan for something that will not happen?” says the Dahal loyalist.For Oli, a Court decision to restore the House is equally fraught. He will either have to resign, or face a no confidence vote in Parliament.

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A Kathmandu Spring

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca7c9c7e80680e08bb6djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1942" height="1294"/><figcaption>Prime Minister KP Oli addresses his supporters in Darbar Marg.</figcaption></figure>The tit-for-tat show of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">force between rival factions</a> of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) continued on Friday with Prime Minister K P Oli choosing the symbolic venue of the former royal palace in Kathmandu to address thousands of his supporters.Despite overcast skies, a chilly wind and the threat of rain, Oli and his loyalists sat on an elaborate stage erected at the gates of the Narayanhiti Palace, and facing the T-intersection of the tree-lined Darbar Marg.“We thought we would have stability after winning the 2017 elections, but there was instability within the party,” Oli said. “However, we will not let their effort to sabotage Nepal’s march to prosperity succeed.”He boasted that this was the biggest rally ever held in Kathmandu, and without naming names, he said it took place despite the rival faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal trying to stop people from attending by enforcing a national shutdown on Thursday.Oli poured scorn at those who had predicted that he would use the occasion to declare that Nepal’s Hindu monarchy be restored. He said: “Why would someone who has fought for so long against the monarchy do that? No one will be allowed to tamper with our federal democratic republic.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca809c7e80680e08bb6ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="884" height="589"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca829c7e80680e08bb6fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Oli’s intention appears to have been three-pronged:- To bring out more people on the streets than his rivals last week so as to impress the Election Commission, which is trying to decide which faction should have the NCP flag and poll symbol.- Use the speech as an election campaign to highlight his party’s development achievements.-  To convince the NCP cadre and the Central Committee that his faction is the mainstream of the party.The prime minister was more moderate than usual in his tone, not using derogatory phrases against his rivals. He gave a full-fledged campaign speech, highlighting what he said were his government’s development achievements, and assuring a cheering crowd that his government would exploit Nepal’s mineral, hydropower and natural resources to create jobs and raise living standards of Nepalis.Prime Minister Oli’s supporters appeared to be promoting a cult of personality around him, with a huge cutout of him above the stage, posters bearing the prime minister’s visage on every streetlamp post on Darbar Marg, and even a helium balloon with the party flag and Oli’s portrait on it. This invited comparisons on social media to King Gyanendra’s desperate attempts to hold on to power in 2006.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca859c7e80680e08bb70jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2403" height="1602"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca889c7e80680e08bb71jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1405" height="937">Alluding to Dahal’s warning that his group may need to abandon a ‘vegetarian’ agitation and go for a ‘non-vegetarian’ one, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa warned his former Boss: “We will lock up anyone going for a non-vegetarian agitation in the zoo.”Oli loyalist and former Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel blamed Dahal and Nepal for wrecking party unity and squandering the gains of the 2017 election.While Nepal ground to a halt during Thursday’s strike by one faction, the rally by another at the centre of the city on Friday affected traffic movement all day with the main thoroughfares closed off.While Durbar Marg was occupied by the supporters of Oli, a civic group marched towards the presidential residence at Shital Niwas earlier in the day, protesting the government making unconstitutional appointments to constitutional bodies. Writers Khagendra Sangroula, Narayan Wagle, Sanjeev Uprety and others took part in the rally.Pro-Dahal leaders of NCP, led by Agni Sapkota also showed up at the Supreme Court on Friday to file a writ against the Constitutional Council convening without him to make the appointments. On Tuesday, President Bidya Devi Bhandari swore in the 32 individuals to various constitutional bodies.The Dahal faction claimed to have brought 100,000 people to its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/">demonstration near Tundikhel</a> on 22 January, while the Oli group boasted of a 200,000 crowd on Friday. It doesn’t end there—Dahal is responding with another rally in Kathmandu on 10 February. Then Oli loyalists are planning rallies in Butwal and Biratnagar on 13 and 20 February.The rallies are demonstrations are being seen as show of strength by the two NCP factions for the snap polls called by PM Oli for 30 April and 10 May. Again, this hinges on the Supreme court verdict on the Prime Minister K P Oli’s dissolution of the House.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca8c9c7e80680e08bb72jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1275" height="850"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca8f9c7e80680e08bb73jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2412" height="1608"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110101152/636cca929c7e80680e08bb74jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1431" height="954">Aside from the show of strength on the streets, leaders from both sides have been engaged in a war of words in speeches and through the media. The language used has been increasingly abusive, and derogatory. The two sides are also contesting for the NCP flag and symbol, with the decision again resting on the Election Commission.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/zero-sum-game-for-nepals-ruling-communists/">Cornered and isolated</a> by the Dahal-Nepal faction and the support it has within the NCP, Oli is now seen as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/splitting-and-spitting/">turning to India</a> for support, as he continues to evoke Hindu ties with India in his interviews and conversations.There has been widespread criticism in social media against the NCP leaders for punishing the people for not being able to resolve their differences. The plight of the driver of a taxi that was set on fire by Dahal-Nepal supporters on Thursday got wide play in the media and got much sympathy.Dahal himself apologised to the public for the hardships they had to endure on Thursday, but he said it was all necessary to defend the federal democratic Constitution and rule of law. In his speech Oli also offered his regrets to the public for having cordoned off the city centre for the whole day.Indeed, the general public appeared to have stayed away from the rallies by both factions, which were populated mainly by party cadre bused in from all over the country.For most families in Kathmandu, there were more urgent things to do attend to than listen to speeches.“I take my daughter along when I go to work, and she had to walk with me for an hour because of Thursday’s bund,” said Sunita Lama, a single mother with a five-year-old.

Oli’s tit-for-tat show of force

<img width="1618" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181152/636be9299c7e80680e0878a5jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>How Chief Justice Cholendra Rana decides on Wednesday to deal with the 13 writ petitions against Prime Minister K P Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolution of the Lower House</a> will determine the next direction in Nepal’s fluid political crisis.Rana can decide to hear the cases under a single bench presided over by himself, or order that the petitions be tried in a ‘constitutional bench’. Either way, the ball is in the Supreme Court and more specifically with Chief Justice Rana. If the bench rules that PM Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House was unconstitutional, it will pave the way for its reinstatement where there is a vote of no confidence pending against the prime minister. But if it decides that the Supreme Court should stay out of the current dispute because it is a political matter, then it will set a judicial precedent for the coming years.“What the court rules will be historic one way or other, and it will have a lasting impact on Nepal’s political system,” says retired Supreme Court Justice Girish Chandra Lal. “It is also an opportunity for the Supreme Court to establish its independence and prestige, or it can take the wrong decision and derail democracy.” There are indications that Chief Justice Rana sees eye-to-eye with Prime Minister Oli. Rana was present at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/over-the-edge-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Constitutional Council meeting last week</a> after Oli got President Bidya Devi Bhandari to sign off on an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ordinance</a> to change the law on its quorum. That meeting made 45 appointments to various constitutional bodies.Rana recently had a run-in with Pushpa Kamal Dahal after a written statement presented at the NCP Secretariat meeting on 12 December by Dahal, accused Oli of have secretly met with Rana at his official residence to plan a dissolution of the Lower House and to declare a state of emergency.Faced with a possible contempt of court case, Dahal later backed down and got the Secretariat to issue a statement saying that the allegation about the Oli-Rana meeting to plan to dissolve the house was ‘based on outside reports’, and he did not want to cast aspersions on the Supreme Court.  <figure><img width="1734" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181152/636be92c9c7e80680e0878a6jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana (left), Prime Minister Oli (centre) and Upper House Chair Ganesh Timilsina (right) at a meeting of the Constitutional Council on 15 December, after the ordinance that allows a smaller quorum. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>Whether or not Oli and Rana met in Baluwatar, there is a widespread perception that there is an unnatural closeness between the two, says another former Justice, Gauri Bahadur Karki: “The court should not be influenced by politics.”  On the other hand, the Supreme Court and Chief Justice Rana, in particular, could also be swayed by the strong condemnation in Nepal’s public sphere against Prime Minister Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House. Which is why what the Supreme Court decides in the coming days is so crucial. This is not the first time that a House dissolution writ is being heard in Nepal’s Supreme Court. In 1995 then Chief Justice Bishwanath Upadhyay had ruled that Prime Minister Manmohan Adhikari’s dissolution of the House was unconstitutional even though the Constitution at the time had given the prime minister the automatic right to do so. The 2015 Constitution is much more categorical in not giving the head of the government that right.  In 1994, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala had also dissolved the House after a rival faction of the Nepali Congress voted against his government, leading to early elections in which the UML came to power. PM Oli’s move on 20 December to dissolve the House and call snap polls in April-May next year has been followed by tit-for-tat dismissals of functionaries by the two factions of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Nepal is now ruled under a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ncp-headed-for-messy-divorce/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">one-party two Central Committees system.</a> On Tuesday, PM Oli as ‘first Chair’ called a meeting of the Party Central Committee and swore in 447 new members into the party, appointed Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali as party spokesperson in place of Narayan Kaji Shrestha, but kept arch-rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal in the party. Later in the day, the rival faction held its own Central Committee meeting in which it decided to take disciplinary action against Oli and relieved him from party chairmanship, replacing him with former prime minister and Dahal loyalist, Madhav Kumar Nepal. It also decided to re-instate former Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara, who resigned in disgrace last year after allegations of raping a colleague.  The political feud in the NCP in the federal legislature is also trickling down to the provincial governments, where four chief ministers regarded as being close to Prime Minister Oli are facing challenges in the assemblies from the Dahal-Nepal lawmakers. The Election Commission will now have to decide which faction can use the NCP label and election symbol, based on which side has a majority in the party working committee. Prime Minister Oli also met the Election commissioners on Tuesday, where they are reported to have proposed a single phase poll to save money in May 2021.

Nepal’s 1-Party-2-Central Committees system

<img width="1618" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191120/636bf0184b0ad905ca02efeejpeg.jpg" alt=""/>How Chief Justice Cholendra Rana decides on Wednesday to deal with the 13 writ petitions against Prime Minister K P Oli’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolution of the Lower House</a> will determine the next direction in Nepal’s fluid political crisis.Rana can decide to hear the cases under a single bench presided over by himself, or order that the petitions be tried in a ‘constitutional bench’. Either way, the ball is in the Supreme Court and more specifically with Chief Justice Rana. If the bench rules that PM Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House was unconstitutional, it will pave the way for its reinstatement where there is a vote of no confidence pending against the prime minister. But if it decides that the Supreme Court should stay out of the current dispute because it is a political matter, then it will set a judicial precedent for the coming years.“What the court rules will be historic one way or other, and it will have a lasting impact on Nepal’s political system,” says retired Supreme Court Justice Girish Chandra Lal. “It is also an opportunity for the Supreme Court to establish its independence and prestige, or it can take the wrong decision and derail democracy.” There are indications that Chief Justice Rana sees eye-to-eye with Prime Minister Oli. Rana was present at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/over-the-edge-again/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Constitutional Council meeting last week</a> after Oli got President Bidya Devi Bhandari to sign off on an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ordinance</a> to change the law on its quorum. That meeting made 45 appointments to various constitutional bodies.Rana recently had a run-in with Pushpa Kamal Dahal after a written statement presented at the NCP Secretariat meeting on 12 December by Dahal, accused Oli of have secretly met with Rana at his official residence to plan a dissolution of the Lower House and to declare a state of emergency.Faced with a possible contempt of court case, Dahal later backed down and got the Secretariat to issue a statement saying that the allegation about the Oli-Rana meeting to plan to dissolve the house was ‘based on outside reports’, and he did not want to cast aspersions on the Supreme Court.  <figure><img width="1734" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191120/636bf01b4b0ad905ca02efefjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana (left), Prime Minister Oli (centre) and Upper House Chair Ganesh Timilsina (right) at a meeting of the Constitutional Council on 15 December, after the ordinance that allows a smaller quorum. Photo: PMO</figcaption></figure>Whether or not Oli and Rana met in Baluwatar, there is a widespread perception that there is an unnatural closeness between the two, says another former Justice, Gauri Bahadur Karki: “The court should not be influenced by politics.”  On the other hand, the Supreme Court and Chief Justice Rana, in particular, could also be swayed by the strong condemnation in Nepal’s public sphere against Prime Minister Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House. Which is why what the Supreme Court decides in the coming days is so crucial. This is not the first time that a House dissolution writ is being heard in Nepal’s Supreme Court. In 1995 then Chief Justice Bishwanath Upadhyay had ruled that Prime Minister Manmohan Adhikari’s dissolution of the House was unconstitutional even though the Constitution at the time had given the prime minister the automatic right to do so. The 2015 Constitution is much more categorical in not giving the head of the government that right.  In 1994, Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala had also dissolved the House after a rival faction of the Nepali Congress voted against his government, leading to early elections in which the UML came to power. PM Oli’s move on 20 December to dissolve the House and call snap polls in April-May next year has been followed by tit-for-tat dismissals of functionaries by the two factions of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP). Nepal is now ruled under a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ncp-headed-for-messy-divorce/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">one-party two Central Committees system.</a> On Tuesday, PM Oli as ‘first Chair’ called a meeting of the Party Central Committee and swore in 447 new members into the party, appointed Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali as party spokesperson in place of Narayan Kaji Shrestha, but kept arch-rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal in the party. Later in the day, the rival faction held its own Central Committee meeting in which it decided to take disciplinary action against Oli and relieved him from party chairmanship, replacing him with former prime minister and Dahal loyalist, Madhav Kumar Nepal. It also decided to re-instate former Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara, who resigned in disgrace last year after allegations of raping a colleague.  The political feud in the NCP in the federal legislature is also trickling down to the provincial governments, where four chief ministers regarded as being close to Prime Minister Oli are facing challenges in the assemblies from the Dahal-Nepal lawmakers. The Election Commission will now have to decide which faction can use the NCP label and election symbol, based on which side has a majority in the party working committee. Prime Minister Oli also met the Election commissioners on Tuesday, where they are reported to have proposed a single phase poll to save money in May 2021.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181148/636be8719c7e80680e08785cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="886"/><figcaption>Illustration: SUBHAS RAI / NEPALI TIMES #22, 22-28 DECEMBER 2000</figcaption></figure>Nepal has been on a knife-edge in 2020 because of the pandemic, but the country’s leaders are too involved in their internal power struggles to notice. This week, better sense  prevailed once more at the last moment as the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) on Wednesday pulled back at the last minute from tearing itself apart.The struggle for supremacy between the two top leaders, Prime Minister K P Oli and party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, have become so nasty, rhetoric so acrimonious and the actions being taken so drastic that it has now dragged all three arms of the state the legislature, judiciary and executive into controversy.The latest casualty was the Office of the President which is now seen by many as just a rubber stamp for the prime minister. As head of state, Bidya Devi Bhandari, should have been beyond reproach and above the fray, but by hastily signing the ordinance to amending the law on the Constitutional Council this week she faced unprecedented  ridicule.It was all unnecessary because Oli and Dahal smoked the peace pipe ahead of the NCP Standing Committee Meeting, and the prime minister decided to take back the ordinance (for the second time this year). The Standing Committee has also been put off till 21 December.By passing the ordinance <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1608275687738000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGayCQf-PZoK4ZSJCVrtNw4r8b5kA">amending the Constitutional Council law</a>, Oli may have just been trying to demonstrate to Dahal how far he would go to get his way. But the damage has been done. Not just to the esteem of the President’s office, but to himself, his party, the Constitution and Nepal’s democracy.The Oli-Dahal row this year has been a wrecking ball on the Nepali state, and its nascent Constitution. It was predictable, therefore, that the opposition and the smaller parties would move to cash in on the disarray in the NCP, and fill the political vacuum.Nepal’s Hindu-right held a series of rallies across the country last month which were increasingly well-attended, calling for the scrapping of the country’s secular republican constitution. There may not be widespread public support for the return of the monarchy, even a ceremonial one, but declaring Nepal a Hindu state is a popular notion among the dominant majority community.For its part, the faction-ridden opposition NC had been under relentless pressure ever since its battering in the 2017 election, to play a more effective role as an opposition party. It had to assert itself for fear of the rightists pulling the rug from under them with a Hindu agenda, and since Parliament is not in session had no option but to stage its own show of force.Prime Minister Oli’s brinkmanship did the trick, and he bought himself some more time. But at what cost? He has isolated himself even more within his party and shown an authoritarian bent, he single-handedly dismantled an essential check-and-balance of Nepal’s democracy, he put the Speaker and the leader of the opposition in the spot.Oli’s act of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-seat-of-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-seat-of-power/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1608275687738000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE2UYVNJeQRsAwr08-F4m5vDHLiDA">defiance</a> against his party rivals led by Dahal, has undermined the Constitution and the rule of law and pushed the Nepali state closer to the edge. Kunda Dixit

pm-oli

Political ball now in Nepal’s Supreme Court

Political ball now in Nepal’s Supreme Court

The Covid tsunami

Parliamentary arithmetics

Legal path to new Nepal government

A Kathmandu Spring

Oli’s tit-for-tat show of force

Nepal’s 1-Party-2-Central Committees system

Nepal’s 1-Party-2-Central Committees system

Over the edge, again