Kathmandu ground to a halt on Friday as pro- and anti-monarchy protests rocked separate parts of the capital. While the Socialist Front led by the Maoist Centre Party held a large rally in the centre of the city, a group agitating to reinstate Nepal as a Hindu kingdom gathered on the outskirts.&nbsp; The two rallies were kept apart, but pro-monarchy protesters resorted to arson and looting, setting fire to buildings in the Tinkune neighbourhood and attacking newspaper offices, party buildings and ransacking a branch of the Bhatbhateni department store. Police fired tear gas and live rounds after stone pelting protesters tried to prevent fire trucks from trying to put out blazes. One protester and a reporter died and 22 people, including several riot policemen, were injured.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_10a340ec54625655b84320e9708349f32ae410ebd66dc2e9006d74c26e24e723.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250328130336_10a340ec54625655b84320e9708349f32ae410ebd66dc2e9006d74c26e24e723" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_4095596005d5c744222ed813ef2621c887fec3f3d8cb99b0580f9f4e241bdd55.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250328130336_4095596005d5c744222ed813ef2621c887fec3f3d8cb99b0580f9f4e241bdd55" data-rendition-name="original" width="1810" height="1207" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_b64ae8a70d36a7a2bbc4d9f4f51344a92531a735f653dd25f97700e170b7f12c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250328130336_b64ae8a70d36a7a2bbc4d9f4f51344a92531a735f653dd25f97700e170b7f12c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>  The pro-monarchy rally was organised by the United People’s Movement Committee for the Restoration of the Monarchy, which had the support of the royalist RPP party and was led by business tycoon Durga Prasai and the 86-year-old former Panchayat politician Nawaraj Subedi.&nbsp; The government had assigned both the protesting groups separate parts of the city so as to minimise chances of confrontation. The pro-monarchy rally turned violent after Prasai broke through police cordons with his vehicle, with supporters following. Across town, a much larger flag-waving crowd marched through the streets and gathered to listen to speeches by leaders of the Socialist Front made up of Maoist Centre, the CPN- Unified Socialists, the Nepal Samajwadi Party and the Communist Party of Nepal led by a breakaway Maoist faction of Netra Bikram Chand.&nbsp; The Socialist Front is in the opposition and has blamed the rise of royalists to the non-performance of Prime Minister K P Oli’s governing coalition. The Maoists were till last year in their own coalition with the Nepali Congress, until it joined up with Oli’s UML.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_36c4b5cd97720a86d4cc65d680211644bbdd23ba9d872ca33ecde56cf7a83bd8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250328130336_36c4b5cd97720a86d4cc65d680211644bbdd23ba9d872ca33ecde56cf7a83bd8" data-rendition-name="original" width="1772" height="1181" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_6598409e322e0680bb01e00306842343642ee662a6f95e0d097478c0517879c3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250328130336_6598409e322e0680bb01e00306842343642ee662a6f95e0d097478c0517879c3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1933" height="1288" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>  &nbsp;“This country cannot return to autocratic, dynastic rule that destroyed our nation,” said former prime minister Madhav Kumar Nepal of the UML-US. “The Nepali people have no interest in being servants to anybody.” Speakers accused the monarchists of getting support from elements of the Hindu-right in India. Former king Gyanendra had met Uttar Pradesh’s cleric Chief Minister Yogi Adiyanath several times in the past year, and posters with the Yogi have been seen at previous royalist rallies. Chronic corruption, impunity, poor service delivery and lack of jobs has fed public anger at the three established parties that have taken turns to rule Nepal for the past 20 years or more.&nbsp; Adding fuel to the fire was the sacking this week of the popular head of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) Kulman Ghising, and his replacement by the prime minister’s brother-in-law, Hitendra Dev Shakya. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_340647eb1ac3e611a7fe9ea5cabe6bc280ec02fd9162e1fdce81a3c7101b6072.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250328130336_340647eb1ac3e611a7fe9ea5cabe6bc280ec02fd9162e1fdce81a3c7101b6072" data-rendition-name="original" width="1872" height="1179" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_b0e1012e17637ceebf2611db796ae745d274636583974f7595b4ab79670b5c37.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250328130336_b0e1012e17637ceebf2611db796ae745d274636583974f7595b4ab79670b5c37" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>  In his speech Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal seemed more introspective and moderated his criticism of the current government.&nbsp; “Perhaps it is because we republicans were unable to live up to the expectations of the people that the forces that were buried in the rubble of history have dared raise their heads once again today,” Dahal told the crowd.&nbsp; While these speeches were going on, tension was escalating in Tinkune as pro-monarchists trashed and set fire to an office block, the office of the CPN-Unified Socialists, vandalised the Annapurna Media building, and attempted to break into the offices of the Maoist Centre. &nbsp;&nbsp; A curfew was imposed in Tinkune and surrounding areas, affecting travellers entering and leaving Kathmandu. Nearby Kathmandu airport was closed for two hours.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_b9d567d96a519dfdf7627ca9bf372a441b47a5f7dc709df94e2042274da1fe23.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250328130336_b9d567d96a519dfdf7627ca9bf372a441b47a5f7dc709df94e2042274da1fe23" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_277512a9bff76fd425e964f41854f7abd835ce3f38b68e95ec8a4cdd3d4e10c5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250328130336_277512a9bff76fd425e964f41854f7abd835ce3f38b68e95ec8a4cdd3d4e10c5" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_aa52420cd50c238a9cbd7d49855fbd45586098a92dba14f1b5ef3dfad43293b0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250328130336_aa52420cd50c238a9cbd7d49855fbd45586098a92dba14f1b5ef3dfad43293b0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1722" height="1144" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>  Royalist morale was boosted earlier this month to welcome former king Gyanendra to Kathmandu from a trip to western Nepal. Gyanendra has been king twice, and was ousted when an elected Constituent Assembly voted to abolish the monarchy in 2008. In 2015 Nepal’s new Constitution officially declared the country a secular federal republic. Royalists like former BBC journalist Rabindra Mishra have been exhorting the Nepal Army and Police to join the protests to reinstate the king, which many have described as provocative and dangerous rhetoric. Earlier this month Mishra told an Indian tv channel that New Delhi should support the reinstatement of a Hindu monarchy in Nepal.&nbsp; Indian leaders including External Affairs Ministry S Jaishankar have reportedly told Nepal’s leaders that they do not want to interfere in the country’s internal affairs. As tensions escalated on Friday, Mishra absolved himself and the pro-monarchy protesters of responsibility for the casualties and property damage.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_fef2e6aee4a59e2fbec96bba5814af5c18a9390b532fd6cb8d7cb62e86441cdf.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250328130336_fef2e6aee4a59e2fbec96bba5814af5c18a9390b532fd6cb8d7cb62e86441cdf" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_a70af2ece39b52108f32560e0a4c06a1ed7cd95e6f0c1c23121e8951b5525cdc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250328130336_a70af2ece39b52108f32560e0a4c06a1ed7cd95e6f0c1c23121e8951b5525cdc" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250328130336_8d5ab4cbabb4d1ab9bc2fa94711168ea1dc854297b5a427a2030536bc87db75c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250328130336_8d5ab4cbabb4d1ab9bc2fa94711168ea1dc854297b5a427a2030536bc87db75c" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Pro-monarchy protests 28 March NT"> </figure>  “No mass movements are under the control of its leaders,” said Mishra. “The government must take responsibility for the loss of life and property incurred today.” Despite the tough words, Nepal’s royalist bloc seems to lack a unified front. The RPP’s Rajendra Lingden and RPP-Nepal’s Kamal Thapa have distanced themselves from Prasai.&nbsp; Gyanendra himself appears to be content to ride what he thinks is a wave of public support, and leave the organising to his supporters. He has so far not spoken in public except occasional video appearances. One thing the pro-monarchy protests have done is restore a semblance of unity among the fractious three main parties. Top leaders of the NC, UML and Maoists met earlier this week to chart a response to the royalists, indicating that they are aware of the public mood and are rattled by the scale of support for the former king. Friday’s protests should serve as a stark reminder to Nepal’s serial prime ministers and their parties that if they do not step up and do their job, street protests could escalate.

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Republicans and royalists on Nepal’s streets

Nepal’s former king Gyanendra was greeted by flag-waving supporters as he arrived at Kathmandu Airport on Sunday afternoon from Pokhara after attending pro-monarchy rallies in various parts of the country. Gyanendra and his family were escorted from the airport by supporters to his residence at Nirmal Niwas, where his family has been living since 2008 when the Constituent Assembly abolished the monarchy. The 2015 Constitution then turned Nepal into a federal democratic republic. The deposed monarch had been on a two-month long tour of religious sites and local communities across western Nepal, ending in a two-week stay in Pokhara. After staying out of controversy, Gyanendra made a statement on Nepal’s Democracy Day last month in which he said he was willing to play a role in “saving the country”. There has been a surge of pro-monarchy posts and videos on social media, where the country’s previous kings have been glorified as being nationalists who were respected by the international community.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_07b324fee8d082ed3f8566544e24d45fcd600bbb122374fc39c7a94ce3d044f2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250309120340_07b324fee8d082ed3f8566544e24d45fcd600bbb122374fc39c7a94ce3d044f2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1914" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_769f688f3a5eb3602f4c24c350ba1caa6965a171c079d783e28db0f746b810d0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250309120340_769f688f3a5eb3602f4c24c350ba1caa6965a171c079d783e28db0f746b810d0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>  Nepal’s monarchists, which include Gyanendra’s backers, several pro-monarchist parties and other anti-government figures, think <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-same-difference">public disillusionment </a>with the country’s ageing and ineffective leaders and institutions is at breaking point.&nbsp; There is also disappointment with elected leaders and technocrats from new parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), with its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rabi-s-detention-churns-nepali-politics">leader Rabi Lamichhane under investigation</a> for his alleged involvement in a scandal involving diverting funds from cooperatives. One of the staunchest backers of Gyanendra’s comeback as king is former BBC journalist Rabindra Mishra, who has been active on social media platforms posting videos and text extolling the monarchy. He has referenced recent street uprisings in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Syria, cautioning Nepal’s mainstream leaders not to dismiss support for the monarchy. ‘Support for a return to monarchy is increasing even though the mainstream parties may dismiss it,’ wrote Mishra. ‘Like the leaders of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, they should not try to suppress the voices on the streets.’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_d8758f6b7474c9f3aea3661ccd60955d8553971cb0d799039bbfd232aa1a0691.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250309120340_d8758f6b7474c9f3aea3661ccd60955d8553971cb0d799039bbfd232aa1a0691" data-rendition-name="original" width="1890" height="1260" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_63613759744c0fac33ff3eabc298079c3e525063882f4b3760954bbc0833b5cd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250309120340_63613759744c0fac33ff3eabc298079c3e525063882f4b3760954bbc0833b5cd" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>  But for all their bluster, Nepal’s mainstream politicians who have rotated leadership of the country between themselves, seem worried about the crowds on the streets in support of the monarchy. The TikTok ban last year, which the government said was to ‘maintain social harmony’ was put into effect to prevent pro-monarchy groups from organising on the platform. The ban on TikTok has now been lifted, and supporters of the monarchy have mobilised platforms to fan nostalgia of the golden age of royalty, and to brand former kings Mahendra and Birendra as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/a-past-foretold">nationalists who upheld Nepal’s sovereignty during the Cold War</a> and commanded respect worldwide. Archival video clips of Mahendra being received by President Eisenhower in 1960 and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/if-birendra-was-alive-nepal-could-still-be-a-monarchy">Birendra </a>by President Reagan in 1983 have been liked by thousands. Comments contrast this to the incompetence and poor standing of Nepal’s current prime ministers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_7dab05f5703e17a82da73277f0b39bf178c1005e0758aa50077ffe1a037f4af6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250309120340_7dab05f5703e17a82da73277f0b39bf178c1005e0758aa50077ffe1a037f4af6" data-rendition-name="original" width="1810" height="1206" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_1ab38cdccfd076babd78579fa345520a7b2fa9c838322226a259540c8c290437.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250309120340_1ab38cdccfd076babd78579fa345520a7b2fa9c838322226a259540c8c290437" data-rendition-name="original" width="1812" height="1206" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>  While most of the people present at the demonstration included the older demographic, younger people have especially used social media to express their support for the monarchy. Young Nepalis, disillusioned with leaders who have been prime minister multiple times since the mid-1990s, are attracted to the idea of reinstating the monarchy as a form of anti-incumbent protest, but also because they have little to no memory of living under an authoritarian absolute monarchy. ‘Those who say the monarchy is paramount today are the ones who did not live through it in the past, and are dissatisfied with the current state of affairs,’ wrote Guna Raj Luitel, Chief Editor of Nagarik Daily, in an op-ed in the newspaper on Sunday.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_720d0059207b9918def39e983d9b5c114b6afb4e7ac0ed1dadd2cba2f20f9aa6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250309120340_720d0059207b9918def39e983d9b5c114b6afb4e7ac0ed1dadd2cba2f20f9aa6" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_bfe50ebd413d1b177ebd02df5f837038d8a04c9d343afe39be1ebcde36db893a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250309120340_bfe50ebd413d1b177ebd02df5f837038d8a04c9d343afe39be1ebcde36db893a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>  He added: ‘For those of us who have spent parts of our lives under the rule of the king… we have not yet forgotten those days, when the institution was unable to do any useful work, a disheartening period characterised by Nepalis being unable to speak freely.’ Commentators have especially been pointing to Gyanendra’s military coup in 2005 when he dissolved parliament, and tried to take the country back to the time of absolute monarchy, just like his father Mahendra did in 1960. Gyanendra became king after his brother and most of his family were killed in the royal palace massacre in 2001. Many Nepalis still seem to believe that Gyanendra was responsible, and some of this is reflected in comments on monarchist social media posts. As the monarchist rallies spread, Prime Minister K P Oli said last week that if Gyanendra really wanted power, he should form a political party and run in the next elections in 2027. Other leaders have urged the former king to honour the 2008 Constitutional Assembly decision to abolish the monarchy, as well as Nepal’s 2015 Constitution.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_978ef979c7774312ac00d3192803d974ea57ec45d704f89663b301f4f0cc9704.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250309120340_978ef979c7774312ac00d3192803d974ea57ec45d704f89663b301f4f0cc9704" data-rendition-name="original" width="1832" height="1221" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250309120340_d11276de0161d258f135e8fba4d3eb37d0a9e579b06a4819c6609b4ecdbbe51e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20250309120340_d11276de0161d258f135e8fba4d3eb37d0a9e579b06a4819c6609b4ecdbbe51e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal NT"> </figure>  &nbsp;In response, royalist leaders including Kamal Thapa, Rajendra Lingden, and Rabindra Mishra have responded that the monarchy is above the electoral system, calling for the reinstatement of a constitutional monarchy in which Gyanendra would be a figurehead. “There is no question of the king contesting an election, that is our job,” said RPP-Nepal chair Kamal Thapa in a tv interview. “The monarchy is a custodian of the nation, it is an institution above electoral politics.” However, there does seem to be a disagreement between hardline royalists who want a return to absolute monarchy in which Gyanendra would actually hold executive powers, and those who favour a ceremonial one. Gyanendra recently visited Bhutan, where he was given a royal welcome, and has made several trips to India where there is some support for reinstating Nepal as the world’s only Hindu kingdom.

Shristi Karki

The ghost of monarchy returns to haunt Nepal

For South Asia, 2024 was an eventful year. A <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/returning-to-the-cradle-of-democracy">pro-democracy</a> student uprising in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/people-power-removes-bangladesh-leader">Bangladesh ousted Sheikh Hasina </a>who took refuge in India. Sri Lankans voted in President Anura Dissanayake from a party that once waged a Marxist insurgency. &nbsp; In India, voters withheld whole-hearted support for the BJP’s divisive <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/religiously-following-politics">religious extremism</a>. But the defeat of the AAP in Delhi this month showed that the ruling party will go to length to influence <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/what-goes-on-in-nepal-s-elections">elections</a>. Pakistan, Bhutan, and the Maldives also had elections last year. And in Nepal, the two biggest parties, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-government-changes-again">Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML</a> ousted the Maoists and formed their own coalition government, appointing K P Oli as the country’s 14th Prime Minister in 15 years. All this is happening against the backdrop of a breakdown in the post-World War II global order, with the rise of populist <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-truth-about-migration">anti-migration climate</a> deniers undermining democracies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">Thinking the thinkable&nbsp;</a> Smaller South Asian nations now risk becoming geo-strategic battlegrounds for regional rivals India and China as they compete to fill the vacuum left by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trumpet-call">America’s retreat</a>. &nbsp; In the Maldives, relations with New Delhi soured after the election in 2024 of Mohamed Muizzu, seen to be pro-China. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/china-s-bri-will-ride-out-the-pandemic">Chinese ‘debt trap diplomacy’</a> is said to have contributed to Sri Lanka’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-political-economy">economic collapse</a>. In Nepal, China has openly supported unity among Communist parties, while India and the West tried to split them. The suspension of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">USAID</a> and MCC may lead to greater Chinese and Indian engagement (read: interference) in Kathmandu’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/civic-appeal-for-stability-and-governance">unstable politics</a>. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">The Great Game, 2nd Half</a>, Sonia Awale&nbsp; In November the Stockholm-based International IDEA and the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA) convened the ‘Democracy in South Asia Outlook Forum’ in Colombo to ponder the direction South Asian democracy might be heading in the next 15 years. Civil society, media, activists and academics brainstormed about four scenarios for 2040: Decline, Continuation, Disciplined Improvement and Transformation. The conclusions have been published in <a href="https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/2025-02/imagining-democratic-futures-south-asia-foresight-report-2025.pdf">IDEA’s South Asia Democratic Futures report</a>, summarised here: Decline is a scenario in which democratic decay will mean governments and media will be completely under crony-capitalist control by 2040, and censorship will be the norm. AI will determine media content, elections will only reflect the politics of patronage. Irreversible ecological breakdown will exceed the capacity of governments to set right on their own. India-China tensions will spill over into conflict in South Asia.&nbsp; Continuation is business as usual in South Asia. Politics will be increasingly dominated by authoritarians and populists, governments will continue to rely on foreign financing, outmigration will accelerate, pollution will have rendered the region’s urban centres unliveable by 2040.&nbsp; Disciplined Improvement is a slightly better situation in which regional alliances, collaboration, civic engagement, and a new generation of leadership will respond more effectively to catastrophic weather events, mass migration and conflict. The polycrisis will prompt governments to work together by reviving regional cooperation through SAARC. Air quality will be so bad that India and Pakistan will be forced to cooperate and clean up. &nbsp;&nbsp; Transformation envisions South Asia as a centre of democratic progress and innovation by 2040, a ‘solarpunk’ society, where nature, technology, and social harmony coexist. The West’s anti-migration wave will reverse the brain drain, with youth-led action against the climate crisis. Regional cooperation, even rapprochement between India and China will fill the gap left by the declining influence of the West.&nbsp; Which way South Asia will go will depend on the leaders we elect or throw out in the coming decade. Policy reforms and action today will determine where we will be as a region in 2040. South Asia must not allow democracy to be dismantled, and trends in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal offer hope. But India’s gravitational pull, and how it deals with China that will determine the region’s fate.&nbsp; Recent aid cuts and the West’s apathy towards cleansing and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">conflict in Gaza and Ukraine</a> exposes the erosion of the moral values it says it espouses. Smaller South Asian countries like Nepal are on our own to deal with the crises in democracy, development and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/those-who-stay">climate</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">The USAID and MCC cuts</a> are a sobering reminder that while India and China may step in, their support will also have strings attached. We have to put our own economic and political house in order, keep neighbours happy, and at arm’s length.&nbsp; Fifteen years is not too far away to determine our collective democratic destiny. Shristi Karki  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025022009024_5b1dea0bd0c07fe7050238b898e5f740bed7f1ab34a62333a47e8d9e775a9c81.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="2025022009024_5b1dea0bd0c07fe7050238b898e5f740bed7f1ab34a62333a47e8d9e775a9c81" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="South Asia democratic report NT"> </figure>

South Asia 2040

Half of Nepalis think the country, and their families, are doing better than five years ago. Really?&nbsp; The prevailing narrative is that Nepalis have given up on Nepal, are fed up with geriatric serial prime ministers, and are fleeing the country in droves. But the latest <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pulse-of-the-people">Sharecast Initiative poll</a> found that half the respondents felt their lives had improved, and the country was doing mostly okay. But it has become unpopular in Nepal to say that things are not so bad, and analysts who cited the survey were mercilessly trolled on social media for being ‘hope-mongers’. “There is a strong narrative that Nepali society is in a deep state of depression and most of us want to make it self-fulfilling,” says Rameshwar Bohora, editor at the digital portal Ukaalo which got much hate mail after publishing the survey findings. “What I saw in the survey result was not despair but anger and dissatisfaction at politicians, which means there is still hope.” To be sure, the poll also registered mass discontent with a dysfunctional government, its non-performance and corruption. Respondents had a long list of complaints that included unemployment, poverty, poor service delivery, inflation, etc. The survey indicated that their ultimate outlet was foreign employment.&nbsp; “The fact that people are dissatisfied with politics and criticise politicians means they still have hope and expectation, democratic politics is also the only way to improve things,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari. “People vent out their frustration to build public pressure so leaders and institutions will correct their behaviour and perform. This is how a healthy democracy works, and if we reject public opinion and treat it negatively, then it is our weakness.” Comparing previous nationwide public opinion surveys conducted over the past 20 years by Himalmedia (the publisher of Nepali Times) reveals an interesting pattern. The polls in 2013 and 2019 had similar questions: ‘Compared to a few years ago, what is the situation of the country?’ and ‘What direction is the country headed?’&nbsp; Tracking the trend, it is evident that Nepalis are becoming gradually more optimistic. One has to remember that by 2013, the post-conflict euphoria had evaporated during the fragile peace process and the Constituent Assembly was deadlocked over demands for ethnic federalism.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250131040148_1f4749940b2749c8eec2a3f056b7cfc89485332ba59db724cf87232628f6127c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1309" height="731" loading="lazy" alt="Hope-mongering NT"> </figure>  Today, Nepalis are still disgusted with their rulers but on the whole feel that they can still change things through elections. Their sense of wellbeing could also be affected by remittance inflows, since nearly half of all households have at least one family member who is working abroad or is a returnee. So, is the glass half-full or half-empty? Both. The truth of the matter is that most Nepalis are angry, but not angry enough to give up hope that things will take a better turn. In fact, anger is good: it can force change if enough people vote out tried, tested, and failed incumbents in 2027. Only then can a new crop of younger leaders start to address the mountain of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">problems that have been left unaddressed</a> for so long: poverty, social injustice, political instability, environmental crises, discrimination, inequality, exclusion, inadequate healthcare and quality education.&nbsp; The public has found some respite in the fact that service delivery and governance at the local level have improved, as they share in the survey. Local elections were held for the first time in 20 years in 2017 after Nepal adopted federalism, and it has taken time for accountability to trickle down to the grassroots. But more importantly, the current governance system allows citizens to vote out the leaders that do not perform and replace them with alternatives as they did with Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah and RSP leader Rabi Lamichhane in 2017.&nbsp; In fact, the poll results could be the Nepali people’s way of telling the leaders of the three main parties: ‘Just you wait.’&nbsp; “Democracy is not all roses, but it also has a system to naturally filter out bad components which is especially important today when personality politics has taken over,” says Adhikari, adding that the trajectory of Nepal’s democracy has been progressive compared to other countries in the region. She adds: “Yes, our expectations haven’t been met, development and governance haven’t kept pace, we haven’t realised our true potential yet. But, considering everything, things could be much worse.” &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

‘Hope-mongering’

If you were raised in Nepal, you must have picked up its unique set of vocabulary: आन्दोलन, चक्का जाम, बन्द, राँके जुलुस, आफ्नो मान्छे, हाम्रो दल, कर्फु and many more words connoting political protest.
We became familiar with the acrid smell of burning tyres, and eyes smarting from tear gas. And yet, everyone speaks of another revolution in the making. Not by desire, but by suffocation.
We heard speeches about नयाँ नेपाल, but the New Nepal never arrived. The governance system changed, but it did not reflect on people’s lives — except for those close to centres of power. The state is still unreachable and is not bothered about <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/matter-of-life-and-debt">victims of loan sharks</a>, cooperative scams and other injustices.
Politicians continue to speak in sound bites, but fail to deliver. They have mastered the game of pointing fingers towards an external enemy and convincing people that they are never at fault. The political narrative is so disconnected from the actual analysis of the problem that suffocation doesn’t go away after every revolution.
No genuine effort has been made to deliver at all, which is why there is a palpable sense of disillusionment in the air forcing us to seek another revolution, even if Nepal may not be able to afford it.
How has the current system successfully held power, even if the public is deeply frustrated? How is it that for three decades we continue to be led by the same faces, who have time and again, proved to us that they may be great politicians but not national leaders?
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/improving-internet-governance-in-nepal">My experience at the epicentre of politics</a> has led me to identify three cultures that have enabled political parties to keep a tight hold on power: acceptance, silence and dependency.
We accept things the way they are. We use fatalistic phrases like “नेपालमा यस्तै हो” or “नेपालको कानुन दैब जानुन”. While this resilience enables us to rise back up from devastating calamities, it is also a reason for our compliance with the status quo.
Despite so many ‘revolutions’ that have led to significant reforms, these phrases keep getting reinforced, to the point that the upcoming generations have made it their lingo.&nbsp;
This acceptance is not a symbol of law-abiding citizens, but citizens living in fear of those in power, unable to ask the whys and why-nots.
Innovation suffocates in this culture of acceptance of the status quo. This is manifested in remarks like “but we don’t have any laws for this,” or “we don’t have the capacity to implement this”. An innovator or entrepreneur therefore has to spend that energy to become a political lobbyist, often educating and convincing the bureaucracy.&nbsp;
Remember when locally assembled <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/designed-and-made-in-nepal">Yatri motorbikes</a>, despite having willing customers, had to suffer to secure license numbers because of a lack of regulations? Instead of creating new laws, the government kept chanting the “We will promote Nepal-made goods” mantra, leaving entrepreneurs in a labyrinth of bureaucracy. The weight of acceptance of the law lies heavily on innovators. Fatalism is a tactic used by those in power to generate mass fear in society.
When we accept, we become silent. This is a pervasive phenomenon. We are trained to keep quiet, lest we ruffle feathers, burn bridges, or not get the help we need in future. We know, yet we don’t speak.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/bureaucratic-hurdles-in-researching-nepals-bureaucracy">Bureaucratic hurdles in researching Nepal's bureaucracy</a>, Daniel W Edwards
Here is one example: the 2021 census shows that the number of baby boys born for every 100 baby girls is 112. This is a clear indication of female foeticide because of boy preference in society.
Despite such horrifying realities, there is finger-pointing within the government between the Ministry of Health and Population with the Ministry of Home Affairs. At the citizen level, we know those who are involved in killing girls. Yet, we don’t speak up. The Nepal Medical Council reports state that despite this gender imbalance at birth, there is no indication of any action.
But why would anyone speak against one's own fraternity, no matter how vile the act is?
When we accept and keep quiet, we become dependent on those who yield power. From getting our government procedure completed on time to getting transfers, to accessing any of our legally protected rights as well, we are forced to depend on our networks of चिनेको मान्छे people we know by blood, village, relations, political affiliation.
The culture of dependency has been the established way in Nepal. If you drive a two-wheeler or four-wheeler, and you get into a small accident, you will be asked to sort it yourself, dialing up the most powerful person you know. It becomes a competition of who knows who.
Recently I was told that there were calls from the Ministry of Health and Population and another from the Prime Minister's Office for just one medical position in a private hospital. Each was pushing its own candidate. Guess which candidate got the position.&nbsp;
The dependency of people is not on the laws or the state, it is with people in power, a reliance on the network of somebody who knows somebody, including those not officially in power.
These cultures are deeply ingrained in our heads, and in society. Collectively they form a vicious circle that helps those in power to retain power. This is not the society we want to live in.
Then, what do we do as a collective to break away from this? How do we break away from the cultures of acceptance and silence that have created this dependency? What can we do to ensure that our children do not have to learn the jargon of आन्दोलन before they learn about the state?
These are the cultures political parties need to shed rather than use them to perpetuate their power. This is what <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/an-alternative-to-alternative-politics-in-nepal">alternative politics</a> needs to be about.
Sumana Shrestha is a member of Parliament’s Education, Health and Information Technology parliamentary committee and represents the Rastriya Swatantara Party.

Why Nepal is stuck

Prime Minister K P Oli’s visit to China this week was proof that Nepal suffers self-inflicted geopolitical harm. Let’s call it the ‘China syndrome’. Weeks before the visit, opposition politicians, coalition partners, op-ed influencers all started ringing alarm bells about backlash from India about Oli not going to Delhi first. Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal even internationalised a domestic issue by telling an Indian newspaper what it wanted to hear about Oli using ‘the China card’.&nbsp; The acronym BRI was in every page 1 headline for a month before the visit. It was almost like this was payback time for how the American MCC deal was nearly cancelled two years ago. The governing UML’s main coalition partner maintained that Nepal should accept only grants, and no more loans from China.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241205111228_8f0349a0999ed9efadae2d0f0c781eee275f6e1788e5b2d31d5e6ab53a846d41.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241205111228_8f0349a0999ed9efadae2d0f0c781eee275f6e1788e5b2d31d5e6ab53a846d41" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="PM Oli in China"> <figcaption>Photos: RSS</figcaption> </figure>  In the end, after much last-minute backroom haggling in Beijing, a compromise formula was found for Nepal to finally sign the BRI on Wednesday. The trick was in semantics: calling the BRI a ‘Belt and Road Initiative Framework Cooperation Agreement’. Not that this was going to make much of a difference. The grant vs loan dispute was also tidily bypassed by using the oxymoronic term ‘aid-assistance’. This should make way for both grants and soft loans from China to fund infrastructure and development projects under the BRI, which was what it was going to be anyway. And that was enough to prove that Oli’s visit to China was not just a junket. Ten out of the 12 projects proposed by Nepal were ‘accepted’ by the Chinese side as part of the BRI deal: the Hilsa-Simikot Road, Kimathanka-Khandbari Road and Kimathanka Bridge, the Tokha-Chhahare tunnel, the trans-border Kerung-Kathmandu railway and a 220kV Kerung-Rasuwagadi transmission line among them.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241205111228_d6de37a9f84076284efe60b3ca838f6061f3abab7041be946bf312c62f7ea040.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241205111228_d6de37a9f84076284efe60b3ca838f6061f3abab7041be946bf312c62f7ea040" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2367" loading="lazy" alt="PM Oli in China"> </figure>  But given how past bilateral agreement since President Xi Jinping’s visit to Kathmandu in 2019 have languished, there is likely to be the usual inertia on the Nepal side. Tellingly, there was no agreement on Nepal’s wish for the cancellation of the $220 million loan from China’s Exim Bank for Pokhara airport. The most tangible outcome seemed to be water buffalo meat export, China sending Mandarin teachers to Nepal, a future ‘friendship park’ in Oli’s home constituency of Jhapa and a city hall in Sher Bahadur Deuba’s constituency of Dadeldhura.&nbsp; Nepal signed the framework agreement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with China in 2017, initially proposing 35 development projects which came down to nine. In 2020, China sent Nepal a BRI implementation plan, but progress was mired in politicisation and red tape. This time, a joint task force involving members of the UML and NC drafted the BRI Framework agreement prior to PM Oli’s visit to China. “Although some of the funding is in the form of grants, the BRI’s financial modality is usually commercial and concessional loans anyway,” says Mahesh Maskey, Nepal’s former ambassador to China. “While commercial loans are expensive, BRI concessional loan interest rates have been as low as 0.3%. If we only seek grants, we could have chosen to do that through normal bilateral agreements like we do at present. Why choose to pursue grants under the BRI?”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241205111228_b6c7da0bb45a798756ae0279a2e643ed041f3a28adff080800050169bfc82468.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20241205111228_b6c7da0bb45a798756ae0279a2e643ed041f3a28adff080800050169bfc82468" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2400" loading="lazy" alt="PM Oli in China"> </figure>  China-watchers in Kathmandu say Beijing has stopped taking Kathmandu seriously because Nepali leaders never do what they say, are tangled up in power struggles and do not implement agreements. Instead of begging China to forgive the Pokhara airport loan, they say Nepal has not done anything to promote it as an alternative tourism gateway. Not even Nepal’s own carriers like Nepal Airlines and Himalaya Airlines fly there from Chinese cities. In fact, the last minute deal-making on the BRI Framework Agreement is a classic example of how not to conduct bilateral negotiations. It did provide Oli with a fig leaf, but a lot now will depend on how Nepal’s leaders stop being distracted by external geopolitics, and pay urgent attention to internal delivery.&nbsp;

China syndrome

Prime Minister K P Oli appears to have decided that since an invitation to visit India is not forthcoming, he will go to China instead. This breaks the tradition of Nepal’s prime ministers flying off to New Delhi first after assuming office.&nbsp;
The Indian media has labelled Oli as ‘pro-China’ so often that most of India seems to believe it. Having a pro-China public persona suits Oli fine since it bolsters his nationalist credentials at home, while privately he keeps his trust with Indian leaders.
“India not inviting Nepal on a state visit does not need to be made into such a big deal. The success or failure of our common national interests do not hinge upon whether or not Nepal and India’s leaders visit one another,” says political commentator Indra Adhikari. “And it is unproductive to believe that Nepal’s government will fall just because India has not invited Oli for a state visit.”
To be sure, Oli and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had met in New York in September at the UN General Assembly, so he has partially kept to the tradition.
Not much has been divulged about the agenda for China visit, but it is expected to include Chinese aid projects in Nepal under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This is largely symbolic, since it does not really matter on the ground whether Pokhara’s airport is BRI since the Chinese-built facility predates the initiative.
Amidst widespread perception that Pokhara airport is a white elephant and straddled Nepal with a $220 million Chinese Exim Bank debt, Oli could be trying to turn that loan into a grant if calling it ‘BRI’ is all it takes.
Pokhara airport has seen no regular international flights almost two years after it was inaugurated. India has balked at granting flights between Indian cities and Pokhara, and neither Nepal’s nor China’s airlines have shown much interest in connecting it to Chinese cities.
Despite signs of perennial strain in inter-governmental ties between New Delhi and Kathmandu, people-to-people and military-to-military relations appear to be as healthy as ever. India’s Board Security Force head Amrit Mohan Prasad will be in Kathmandu on Friday, and Indian Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi isset to make a visit next week.
As it stands, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited Kathmandu, and Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba was feted in Delhi in August. India’s Army Chief Upendra Dwivedi and Border Security Force head Amrit Mohan Prasad are also visiting Kathmandu in the coming days.
Foreign Minister Rana’s relationship with India has been amicable, and she was received warmly by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in New York in September. Rana who is flying to Beijing in the coming weeks to prepare for Oli’s visit has also been tasked with managing the visit through an unusual bipartisan mechanism made up of top leaders from the UML and Nepali Congress. &nbsp;
UML spokesperson Pradeep Gyawali clarified: “The bipartisan mechanism was not just made to set the groundwork for the prime minister’s visit to China, but also to foster collaboration between the two parties on important domestic issues.”&nbsp;
Says Adhikari: “This two-party mechanism could perhaps be the leaders trying to send a message that they are united and that their partnership will sustain as well as to assure the public that they are serious about working on their promises including amending the constitution.”
While Oli and his UML comrades have tried to gloss over the absence of an invitation from India as no big deal, there have been the usual signs of bilateral friction. Just as the Indian press portrays Oli as ‘pro-Chinese’, the Nepali media often highlights Indian high-handedness on trade, river sharing, and refusal to allow air routes that would facilitate more flights to Pokhara and Bhairawa airports.&nbsp;
Nepal has gone ahead and forced some international airlines to start flying Bhairawa to reduce congestion at Kathmandu airport, which is seeing taxiway upgrades till April next year.
Another irritant has been non-tariff restrictions on Nepal’s exports to India like cement, textiles, and other consumer goods that use Chinese-made raw materials — just like India refuses to buy electricity from hydropower plants built by Chinese contractors, even though the power is all fed into Nepal’s national grid.
Meanwhile, Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal has been campaigning at the grassroots in Kirtipur’s by-elections next month. And RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane remains in custody and was brought to Bhairawa from Pokhara to be investigated in the cooperatives scam. &nbsp;

Oli’s oscillations

Parliamentary proceedings were brought to a halt on Wednesday in Kathmandu after a heated exchange between the UML and opposition MPs over the use of the word ‘violence’ to describe the Maoist conflict.&nbsp; The real peacetime violence being perpetrated on Nepalis is actually political failure to control <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking">lethal air pollution</a>. Figures from the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) survey released this week, and the<a href="https://www.healthdata.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/soga-2024-report.pdf"> State of Global Air (SOGA)</a> in June, show just how dirty the air is. Any government accountable to the people would act, after all, the prime minister breathes this same air. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-pollution"> Epicentre of pollution</a>, Sonia Awale Summary from the reports: <ul> <li>Nepal’s 30.7 million people are exposed to air much worse than the <a href="https://www.iqair.com/nepal/central-region/kathmandu">WHO threshold</a>.&nbsp;</li> <li>19% of deaths in 2021 were due to contaminated air.</li> <li>Bad air cuts the average lifespan of Nepalis by 3.4 years. Tarai residents live 5 years less. For comparison, heavy smokers lose just 1.9 years of their life.&nbsp;</li> <li>Sooty indoor air will kill nearly 34,000 Nepalis this year, and 12,700 will die from ambient air pollution.&nbsp;</li> <li>More than 6,000 deaths, mainly in the cities, were linked to ozone exposure.&nbsp;</li> <li>75% of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Nepal is caused by breathing bad air. Air pollution is also the cause of 39% of all lung cancer cases.</li> </ul>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240829160812_081b9558dee7b656f87f5d4e5af7923780ec8455f9d33402f38844a992ce5471.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240829160812_081b9558dee7b656f87f5d4e5af7923780ec8455f9d33402f38844a992ce5471" data-rendition-name="original" width="1376" height="729" loading="lazy" alt="AIr pollution Nepal NT"> </figure>  Air pollution is now the biggest threat to human health in Nepal, shortening lives by 3-5 years in Kathmandu Valley and the Tarai with the worst concentration of particulate matter. A new <a href="https://aqli.epic.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Nepal-FactSheet_2024.pdf">report by Air Quality Life Index (AQLI)</a> released this week ranks Nepal as the third most polluted country in the world with its entire 30.7 million people living in areas where the annual average particulate pollution level exceeds the WHO guideline. Even where outdoor air is clean in the high mountains, families are exposed to excessive indoor pollution due to soot from burning firewood, especially in winter. The State of Global Air (SOGA) Report published in June has even more shocking figures: more than 50,000 Nepalis died from air pollution in 2021, accounting for 19% of all mortality, just behind high blood pressure. The study also linked 75% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 39% of lung cancer deaths to dirty air.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240829160812_d9ccb69192498c91f4b5be762eb073dceb2c7b7cbf01a284ae21654ab1ca9041.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240829160812_d9ccb69192498c91f4b5be762eb073dceb2c7b7cbf01a284ae21654ab1ca9041" data-rendition-name="original" width="1172" height="722" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution in Nepal NT"> </figure>  Levels of<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/warning-breathing-is-hazardous-to-health"> surface ozone and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) </a>are also increasing due to vehicular emissions, triggering development of childhood asthma.&nbsp; Appalling as these figures are, they should come as no surprise. What is more appalling is the lack of political will to clean up. “The political apathy to prioritise action against air pollution is the crux of the problem,” states environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar, adding that solutions like stopping open garbage burning, and cutting vehicular and brick kiln emissions are easy to implement solutions.&nbsp; Just as the media and public <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-safety-to-hit-nepal-tourism">call for action against floods and landslides</a> after the monsoon starts, air pollution also becomes a topic when winter has already set in. Action on both should be a year-round effort. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/100-101-102-hh5uvzf9">100, 101, 102</a>, Shristi Karki&nbsp; Prashant Khanal works on air pollution and climate mitigation and was recently in Paris, where the mayor is pedestrianising streets to curb emissions and improve health.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240829160812_e11b11cdee3ed917497deefb4f624c0c3d15c5fac16359801bbc2e2aec51369b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20240829160812_e11b11cdee3ed917497deefb4f624c0c3d15c5fac16359801bbc2e2aec51369b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1107" height="881" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution in Nepal NT"> </figure>  He says: “We simply do not have that kind of leadership nor political will. Awareness and individual action are all well and good, but we need regulatory measures to improve air quality.” Vehicular and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal">industrial emissions</a>, open burning, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains">wildfire smoke</a> and crossborder transport of pollution are the main culprits. Most can be reduced by strictly enforcing national air quality measures, while we have to wait for India and Pakistan to clean up their act for transboundary pollution to go down. Madhes and Lumbini provinces have even higher pollution levels than Kathmandu, especially when prevailing winds are from the south. This has worsened in recent years by longer-lasting winter fog. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-transboundary-haze-affects-nepal">How transboundary haze affects Nepal</a>, Prabhakar Shrestha If Nepal were to reduce particulate pollution to meet the WHO guideline, residents in the Tarai would gain 4.8 years of life expectancy, Kathmandu residents would live 2.6 years longer, and tens of thousands of lives would be saved every year. The SOGA report puts deaths linked to household air pollution due to cooking with solid fuels at 33,900 compared to 12,700 by ambient suspended particulate matter less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5).&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240829160816_5f7804d0407f8988fee6b44d8ca5e6f775b5ffcecccc53030372f27250b72385.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20240829160816_5f7804d0407f8988fee6b44d8ca5e6f775b5ffcecccc53030372f27250b72385" data-rendition-name="original" width="4000" height="2667" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution in Nepal NT"> <figcaption>Photo: KONSTANTINOS SOFIKITIS</figcaption> </figure>  More than 6,000 other deaths have been linked to exposure to toxic ozone, mainly coming out of the tail pipes of motorcycles. Climate breakdown and biodiversity loss are now getting more media attention, but the air pollution crisis does not seem to be waking politicians to the dangers although its impact on citizens is more immediate and localised. Says Khanal, “Air pollution is not just a public health or environmental issue but has huge social and economic implications, the government needs to allocate money for its mitigation just as it is now doing for climate change.”&nbsp; Electrification of public transport and cooking are common sense solutions to improving air quality and public health in Nepal, with the country now generating <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">more than 3,000MW of hydropower</a>. This is set to double in the next five years. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/hefty-fines-fail-to-deter-polluting-vehicles">Hefty fines fail to deter polluting vehicles</a>, Sushila Budathoki Instead of prioritising export of surplus energy, increasing domestic demand in transportation and household appliances would yield greater dividends in terms of public health, and reducing the petroleum import bill.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240829160816_e4a78b2b4d55edb805060a899cef6a9297e5bff7b54d4a7aeea7b1f78fd60d84.jpg" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="20240829160816_e4a78b2b4d55edb805060a899cef6a9297e5bff7b54d4a7aeea7b1f78fd60d84" data-rendition-name="original" width="1290" height="799" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution in Nepal NT"> </figure>  As the ongoing NADA Auto Show in Kathmandu proves, there has been a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/evs-hybrids-and-plug-ins">spurt in the sale of electric vehicles</a>. Of the nearly 18,000 vehicles imported in Nepal last year, 12,000 were battery-powered. These are mostly private electric vehicles, but it is public transport and in electric stoves where the focus should be. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/rev-your-car-and-charge-it-too">Rev your car (and charge it, too)</a>, Vishad Raj Onta “Air pollution ranks as a huge concern to people living in Nepal, and the country also has some of the most open data for air quality information across South Asia,” Christa A Hasenkopf of the Clean Air Program at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago told Nepali Times. But she added, “It is challenging to make progress on long term levels of air pollution when there is not a long-term goal in place, like a national annual standard for PM2.5.” Despite shortcomings, there have been notable local initiatives. Lalitpur has been promoting itself as a ‘cycle city’ while Hadigaon has been working on pedestrianisation. Changunarayan has come up with an Air Quality Management Plan while Chandragiri wants to invest in controlling wildfires to reduce pollution levels. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses">Cleaner air with greener buses</a> Says Bhushan Tuladhar, "Local leadership and community ownership is what’s missing from a lot of our government initiatives. That is why pedestrianisation of Hadigaon worked and not <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/kathmandu-s-balen-phenomenon">Mayor Balen</a>’s New Road expansion which was a top down directive with little community participation.” &nbsp; <h2>Transcontinental contamination</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240829160816_e6d3a88220290318118466a3932332828f0ff89a03426175cd8bb5d8cf3a61d1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_22" data-image-id="20240829160816_e6d3a88220290318118466a3932332828f0ff89a03426175cd8bb5d8cf3a61d1" data-rendition-name="original" width="450" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="Transcontinental pollution NT"> </figure>  There is an anomaly in the new Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) report released this week. Particulate pollution in Nepal and South Asia in 2022 was 18% lower compared to 2021.&nbsp; Scientists are not sure why, but it is probably due to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/more-monstrous-monsoons">more rain that year </a>which washed down pollutants from the air. If this decline is sustained, an average Nepali could live 10 months longer than what they would have if they were exposed to the 2021 particulate pollution levels. “True progress on air pollution can’t be measured from one year to the next, it must be measured over several years,” says Christa A Hasenkopf of the Clean Air Program at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal"> Blueprint for a net-zero Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale Indeed, longer-term pollution trends suggest that Nepal’s average annual particulate matter concentration in the air increased by 49% from 1998 to 2022. Warns Tanushree Ganguly of AQLI: “Despite the <a href="https://www.indiaspend.com/earthcheckindia/indias-air-quality-improved-in-2022-but-still-at-concerning-levels-921940">18% decline in South Asia’s PM2.5 levels relative to 2021</a>, people in South Asia are still likely to lose more than 3.5 years of their life as a result of breathing polluted air. This reinforces the need for sustained regionwide action.” In addition to vehicular and industrial emissions, farm stubble burning after autumn harvest in India and Pakistan is now emerging as a major source of suspended particulates that are carried by prevailing winds to Nepal and Bhutan.&nbsp; When deposited on ice and snow, the soot particles add to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">melting of glaciers </a>caused by global warming. Some studies suggest that 30% of glacier thaw in the Indian Himalaya is caused by pollution-related loss of albedo effect on snow. “Air pollution is a <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9224398/">transboundary issue</a>, and at least in South Asia, a coordinated regional approach can move the conversation towards joint solutions,” Pallavi Pant of the Health Effects Institute, which publishes the annual State of Global Air report, told Nepali Times. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/polluted-politics">Polluted Politics</a> Joint efforts to strengthen local technical and scientific capacity can help countries in the region establish and run advanced air quality monitoring systems, and use the data for decision-making. Pant adds: “We can leverage available data and expertise to identify relevant solutions that can lead to cleaner air and better health. Air pollution can be related to policies addressing prevention and control of non-communicable diseases.” Back in 1998, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Iran, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka came together to sign the <a href="http://www.sacep.org/pdf/Declarations/05.Male-Declaration-on-Control-and-Prevention-of-Air-Pollution-and-its-Transboundary-Effects-for-South-Asia.pdf">Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects for South Asia</a>. That collective is now mostly dysfunctional, but reviving it would be in the mandate of regional organisations like ICIMOD and SAARC, both headquartered in Kathmandu and working in a geopolitically volatile but seriously polluted region. Ganguly has an idea about where to start: “South Asian countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan have similar PM2.5 levels, but different PM2.5 standards. Harmonisation of PM2.5 standards could be one way to foster regional collaboration.”

Bad air and polluted politics

Late last week, under pressure from banks and big business, Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari unveiled a new monetary policy.&nbsp;
The policy expands credit of banks and credit sector, relaxing several regulatory provisions. But the Rastra Bank is careful not to allow banks to resume reckless lending.&nbsp;
“A cautiously accommodative monetary policy,” is how Adhikari described it.
The private sector has welcomed the policy, and the NEPSE soared steeply into two circuit breaks on Sunday, the first trading day after the policy was announced. &nbsp;
NRB has set a target for credit expansion to 12.5%, up from 11.5% last year. Excluding the last two fiscal years, credit has expanded at an annual rate of 20% in the last three decades, against an economic growth rate of about 4%.&nbsp;
Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/despite-politics-nepal-s-stock-market-is-bullish"> Despite politics, Nepal’s stock market is bullish</a>, Santosh Pokharel and Sudyumna Dahal
This is proof that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-care-economy">Nepal’s economy</a> has not benefited from private sector credit expansion.
NRB tried to ease interest on loans following the pandemic but revised it to slow credit expansion due to economic turbulence.&nbsp;
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) also blamed an anaemic economy on the post-pandemic monetary policy, and its effects linger. &nbsp;
NRB’s decision to signals that it wants to further reduce the lending rates of banks. However, Nepal’s banks and financial institutions at present are flush with cash, and do not need to borrow from the central bank.&nbsp;
The policy change therefore will not affect the market interest rate. The deposit collection rate, which is unchanged at 3%, will ensure that the interest rate on bank deposits will not go down.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/central-role-of-the-central-bank">The central bank </a>has chosen to make the monetary policy more liberal through regulatory arrangements rather than monetary instruments to ease the pressure on the capital funds of financial institutions.&nbsp;
The existing loan loss provision of 1.2% on good loans has been reduced to 1.1%, which is estimated to increase the profits of the banking and financial institutions by up to Rs5 billion.&nbsp;
Similarly, the regulatory retail portfolio limit has been increased to Rs25 million lessening the strain on bank capital and making it easier for them to provide loans.
In addition, the new policy includes concessions to the construction sector with struggling businesses after builders complained about being blacklisted for not paying billions owed to the government.&nbsp;
Contractors will not be blacklisted for bounced cheques. The deadline for the loan interest payment has also been extended till mid-December.&nbsp;
But while NRB says it will review existing credit notice and blacklisting directives, a no-penalty policy for dishonouring checks would increase the risk for businesses.&nbsp;
All this is proof that<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/democracy-s-sidekicks"> the new NC-UML coalition</a> is beholden to business. This week, the prime minister ordered NEA to resume electricity supply to industries which have not paid power bills worth millions.&nbsp;
NRB also stated that it would ease the current working capital loan guidance, as well as revise the working capital limit (short-term financing extended to businesses to cover its day-to-day expenses) for micro, domestic, small and medium enterprises.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/soaring-debt">Soaring Debt</a>, Ramesh Kumar
The bank also announced that Nepalis who had obtained<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/speaking-the-language-of-overseas-work"> overseas work</a> permits would be able to obtain loans without collateral, increasing the possibility for such people to borrow at a cheaper rate.&nbsp;
The IMF has also suggested that Nepal amend the 2002 Rastra Bank Act to guarantee its independence. It is neither theoretically nor morally appropriate for every change in government to interfere with NRB policies. &nbsp;
Under pressure from big business, Prime Minister Oli, as soon as he assumed office, made direct comments about changing the monetary policy to make it more flexible.&nbsp;
Governor Adhikari had no choice but to give in to that pressure, but he has been equally careful not to repeat the mistakes of the past. He opened the door to credit expansion through his first monetary policy as governor enabling borrowers to obtain billions in refinance and working capital loans.&nbsp;
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal">Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
Although he has increased the target for credit expansion, Adhikari has been more prudent than before.&nbsp;
The governor has emphasised that seeking economic growth through monetary policy will not work as long as jobs, investment, and productivity do not improve.
“Seeking short-term solutions through a flexible monetary policy poses a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/state-sponsored-economic-crisis">challenge to achieving long-term economic stability</a>,” Adhikari said.&nbsp;
In recent years, Nepal’s government and the private sector have pushed for economic revival through monetary policy. But that has allowed real estate and share market speculators a free rein.&nbsp;
The positive impact of such directives have been short-lived, and point to structural problems with the economy.&nbsp;
Economic opportunities in the country are limited because little has been done to create jobs, increase production, and encourage investment — factors that would contribute directly to long-term economic stability.&nbsp;
More than 850,000<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-long-way-to-europe"> Nepali youth left the country for foreign employment</a> and further education in the past year alone.&nbsp;
The biggest problem in Nepal’s financial system is credit abuse. And although NRB has accepted this it has not done much to curb it. The new monetary policy therefore may be ‘flexible’, but does not fix the economy’s old problems.
Ramesh Kumar

Monetary politics

K P Oli and his coalition partner Sher Bahadur Deuba have been prime ministers of Nepal a total of nine times between them. This gives them the joint responsibility of allaying widespread public perception that it is time to pass on the baton.
The fact that Nepal’s two biggest parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), are in government together has made some hopeful that this coalition will be more stable.&nbsp;
However, the two have their work cut out to a) prove that it is indeed a more stable partnership, and b) that it will govern better. The sole criteria on which this government and its leaders will be judged before the next election will be if it improves the economy.
During his address to Parliament before his floor test last week, Prime Minister Oli acknowledged that the Nepali people were “in deep despair” about the current direction of the country’s politics and economy.&nbsp;
“Our politics must ensure development and prosperity, which is impossible without a strong government,” Oli said.&nbsp;
However, the circumstances that led to the UML pulling away from its partnership with the Maoist Centre was in part propelled by the two biggest parties trying to thwart investigations of their top leaders in two scandals.&nbsp;
That, and the lack of inclusiveness in the new cabinet populated by tainted public figures hints that it is going to be pretty much business as usual. There are only two women in the Council of Ministers, and no ministers from the Dalit community.&nbsp;
If the NC-UML leaders wanted to show that amending the Constitution (the coalition’s major agenda) would strengthen inclusion in government, they are not off to a very good start.&nbsp;
The Cabinet’s decision this week to override the Nepal Electricity Authority and resume power supply to industries that had not paid their dues just proved everyone’s worst suspicions.
Oli’s Cabinet must heed his own words in Parliament that his government would discontinue the culture of leaving development half-finished, and not dismantle some meaningful work done by previous governments.&nbsp;
And even as Deuba places his trust in Oli for the time being, not everyone within the coalition partnership is in the mood to coddle Oli. Leaders of the rival faction within the Nepali Congress which includes NC General Secretaries Gagan Thapa and Shekhar Koirala have made it clear to Oli that their votes of confidence given to Oli does not mean carte blanche support.&nbsp;
But because of its size and influence, this coalition has more responsibility and reason to be stable and deliver the goods in the next three years before elections.&nbsp;
If the biggest two parties coming together cannot successfully address the country’s stagnant economy, kickstart development and create jobs and address widespread public disillusionment and apathy, voters are going to turn to untested populist leaders in 2027.&nbsp;
The Maoists and the RSP are now in the opposition and licking their wounds, and their check and balance role in questioning the NC-UML establishment will be crucial for a functioning democracy in the coming months. &nbsp;
But while a main opposition party with a strong presence is supported by its numbers in Parliament, that is not the case now. The Maoists and the RSP, which are the third and fourth largest parties, together do not have the numbers equal to either the NC or UML in Parliament. Furthermore, both the Maoists and RSP have internal problems of tarnished leadership and disunity.&nbsp;
Maoist chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal must now address discontent within his own party and answer criticism about handling things better with the NC to prevent the UML ‘coup’ last month. He must also analyse what his ouster means for his party’s diminishing popularity at the polls.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, the RSP’s reputation, popularity and support which have taken a major hit, mainly because of party leader and former Home Minister Rabi Lamichhane being embroiled in multiple scandals, is now at the centre of another allegation of corruption and abuse of authority.&nbsp;
The RSP’s Deputy Speaker Indira Rana Magar is facing calls to resign after a letter she allegedly wrote to the US embassy to expedite visa dates for herself and five others earlier this year. Visa-related correspondence for members of the House is usually handled by the Parliament Secretariat, but this instance involved five people who are not MPs and Rana Magar is facing allegations of trafficking.&nbsp;
The RSP was quick to call the letter being made public an attempt by the new governing coalition to tarnish the reputation of the Deputy Speaker and the party. But even though her party is backing her for now, Rana Magar’s changing statements have not helped.&nbsp;
The RSP’s unique selling point to the public is that it is not like the old parties, and given to old practices of corruption and nepotism. Now, the question being asked is: how are the RSP and its leaders any different?
Perhaps it is too early to write the new coalition off, but the signs so far are not encouraging. &nbsp;

Democracy’s sidekicks

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">US President Donald Trump</a>’s announcement of hefty trade tariffs last week has reverberated worldwide, causing turmoil in <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce3qnyr7y94t">international trade and stock markets</a>.
The Trump administration announced a baseline 10% tariff on all goods from every country entering the US market, including products from Nepal. But other countries got <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/03/trumps-tariffs-the-full-list">slapped with even higher tariffs</a>: 20% for goods from the European Union, 26% on Indian exports to the US, and a massive 54% on China.&nbsp;
Many countries have imposed additional reciprocal tariffs on US goods, and there are fears of a global recession. It has been compared to dropping a nuclear bomb on the global trading system.
The tariffs will increase customs duty on foreign goods entering the US, ultimately increasing their prices for end consumers. This may reduce the competitiveness of imports, as a result of which there could be a decline in exports from China, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and other countries that export manufactured goods to the US.
The US is Nepal's second-largest export market, with goods worth Rs17.31 billion exported during the last fiscal year. These include <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Churpi-gaining-popularity-outside-Nepal,1048">chhurpi dog chew</a>, woolen carpets, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/passionate-about-pashmina">pashmina</a>, ready-made garments, and handicrafts.&nbsp;
Dog chews and woolen carpets account for more than half of Nepal's total exports to the US. Nepal exported nearly 1,000 tonnes of dog chews to the United States.&nbsp;
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">Following the 2015 earthquake</a>, the US granted Nepal duty-free treatment for 77 items under its <a href="https://np.usembassy.gov/nepal-trade-preference-program/">Nepal Trade Preference Program</a> (NTPP). The period for these non-reciprocal preferential trade benefits will end on 31 December 2025.
It is not clear if the 10% tariff will apply to those items during the course of this year, and the ultimate fate of the NTPP.&nbsp;
“The NTTP was passed as law by the US Congress a decade ago, so we can assume that the current administration will not revoke it through an executive order,” says Ravi Shankar Sainju, also the former joint secretary of the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies.
But he adds that the US is unlikely to extend the trade benefit to Nepal after December, as the Nepal government has not taken the necessary steps to renegotiate the NTTP.&nbsp;
Kiran Saakha, president of the Nepal-USA Chamber of Commerce and Industry, also doubts that the NTTP will end immediately, adding: “The US Embassy was unable to provide us with a clear answer when we asked about the program. But as far as we understand, the benefits Nepal has received under the NTPP remain in place for now.”
Nepal has not been able to increase exports of the 77 specified products and reap full benefits of the zero tax facility. However, even with recent developments, economists say that a 10% duty on Nepali exports will not affect Nepal much and may even benefit the country,
<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/products-made-in-nepal,3345">Exports from Nepal </a>would still be cheaper in the US market than goods from countries in the region which have had much higher tariffs placed on them, like India (26%), Pakistan (29%) Bangladesh (37%), and Sri Lanka (44%).
“The countries in the region export goods to the US that Nepal can produce,” says economist Poshraj Pandey. “With the US having imposed a relatively lower tariff on Nepal, there is a potential to actually increase exports to the American market.”
Saakha of the Nepal-USA Chamber of Commerce and Industry, agrees that the demand for Nepali goods could increase, but adds that the country must be more competitive.
Nepal had a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/a-post-mortem-of-nepal-s-garment-boom">booming ready-made garment industry</a> leading up to the early 2000s with 500 industries employing 85,000 workers, and accounted for a quarter of the country’s total exports. But the termination of the WTO Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) in December 2004 ended quotas that countries like Nepal had benefitted from. Currently, cotton and polyester garments from Nepal are subject to 18% and 20% customs duty respectively in the US market.&nbsp;
“Nepal has the opportunity to increase the export of ready-made garments once again,” says Bhim Kumar Giri of the Garment Association Nepal (GAN). “It is time to dust off our old machines and bring them back into production. Since garment exporting countries like India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam have been slapped with high tariffs, Nepal’s products will become competitive once again.”
But to take advantage of the tariff differential, Nepal has to be much more investment-friendly and transparent than it is now. While analysts discuss hypotheticals, there are doubts as to the US government’s commitment to its new tariff announcement.&nbsp;
“We cannot be certain about Trump’s trade policies, he may reverse it just as suddenly,” says economist Pandey.
“There is cautious optimism about Nepal being less affected by Trump’s tariffs, but Nepal should not count its chicken before they hatch,” says trade expert Ravi Shankar Sainju. “Because daily expenses for the average American have risen, there may be less demand for Nepal’s exports.” &nbsp;
In the past, high production and transportation costs and low productivity have hurt the competitiveness of Nepal’s products in the international market. Raw materials required to produce goods in Nepal have to be imported, and the country’s landlocked location increases cost of production.
Former GAN president Chandi Prasad Aryal says the fact that Nepali exports have lower tax rates will be meaningless unless the Nepal government removes existing hurdles to production and export, ensures domestic production of raw materials, and promotes productivity.&nbsp;
“These new trade dynamics will be a wasted opportunity unless we can facilitate competitive production within Nepal,” he adds.
Nepal can benefit from the new US trade policy, but experts warn that Nepal must not misuse it. With high customs imposed on goods from neighbouring nations, there is a risk of those goods entering Nepal markets to be re-exported as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/from-heads-to-toes">Made in Nepal products</a>. &nbsp;
Says Kiran Saakha: “Government and entrepreneurs must be vigilant in preventing crimes that could lead to Nepal losing its credibility in the international market. Otherwise, the US might just as easily take away the small concessions it has currently granted to us.”

Trump tariff to benefit Nepal

Ever since leaving his home village in Syangja, Purna Gurung has been crossing bridges when he comes to them. And here he is at age 55, supervising the pile-driving for a new bridge in Tasmania, 10,000km away from home. Gurung has built <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/how-safe-are-nepals-suspension-bridges">bridges</a> in Africa, worked on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-first-and-forgotten-tunnel">tunnels</a> in Hong Kong, and moved up the ranks in teams building complex infrastructure projects <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/flying-home-in-a-pandemic">across the world</a>. All that experience is standing him in good stead in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/australian-galley-returns-stolen-strut-to-nepal">Australia</a>, where he came 15 years ago. Purna Gurung has brought other Nepali engineers to join him in the bridge project here. He got his former co-worker Mansuba Gurung to come from New Zealand, and other Nepali engineers from the Australian mainland.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250403140440_4437eca5b584ca91ac43516c3961760fdc1b956d6dcb13da3b7a6fe4c20a9d4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250403140440_4437eca5b584ca91ac43516c3961760fdc1b956d6dcb13da3b7a6fe4c20a9d4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1285" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Tasmania"> <figcaption>Hobart, the capital city of Tasmania with Mount Wellington in background.</figcaption> </figure>  “We are a professional and energetic team, born in the high <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">mountains of Nepal </a>and now working on this historic bridge in Tasmania,” says Gurung, as he drives a recent visitor to the construction site, and points out the piers and girders from the window. “My role is to maintain professional integrity and motivate my team, especially the Nepalis here.” The feeling appears to be mutual. Gurung is regarded as a sort of guru by the other Nepalis at the site, and he is respected for his expertise in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/This/building-bridges-in-nepal-to-combat-poverty,308">bridge-building</a>, his capacity for taking on difficult tasks and teamwork.&nbsp; At the site itself, one could easily imagine oneself on a construction site in Nepal: workers in hard hats are shouting instructions to each other in Nepali. Indeed, Nepali is said to be the most spoken language in Tasmania after English, and there are at least five Nepali restaurants in Hobart alone.&nbsp; Despite its bucolic setting with neat, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-can-lead-in-zero-carbon">clean and green environment</a>, many Tasmanians migrate to the mainland or abroad to seek new opportunities. Which is why the Australian government provides higher wages and encourages immigrants from Nepal and elsewhere a fast-track to permanent residence if they move to the island. Nearly half of Tasmania is protected <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-wellbeing-of-the-wilderness">wilderness</a> which has many species found nowhere else in the world. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-other-attraction-the-night-sky">Nature-based tourism</a> is becoming the mainstay of Tasmania’s economy, Australia’s smallest state. There is also a new infrastructure drive, and this includes the Tasmania’s longest bridge over the River Derwentin which Purna Gurung and his team are working on. The Derwent flows down from Lake St Clair in Tasmania's Central Plateau and 182km later discharges into Storm Bay.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250403140440_b69911289a50c7d4d6dcd77d9884cbe97946afd553ae5da194c68735478e51c6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250403140440_b69911289a50c7d4d6dcd77d9884cbe97946afd553ae5da194c68735478e51c6" data-rendition-name="original" width="1391" height="783" loading="lazy" alt="Tasmania"> <figcaption>Low Bridgewater Bridge will be demolished after completion of the new project.</figcaption> </figure>  Compared to delayed bridge-building which is the norm in Nepal, construction here is progressing on schedule, and was preceded by an environmental assessment and measures to ensure that aboriginal and cultural sensitivities were addressed.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/10-000-bridges">10,000 bridges</a> Despite criticism about high cost of the $786 million Bridgewater Bridge, it appears to be worth it because cyclists and pedestrians have been given high priority with a safe three-metre-wide shared path on the upstream side of the bridge. A temporary bridge has also been built to streamline work, and will be dismantled later. Purna Gurung is popular with his team members, especially his colleagues from Nepal. After completion of the Tasmania bridge later this year, he has already got a commitment to work on a tunnel project in Adelaide. He has not thought about retirement, and tells us: “I have spent over three decades of my life building bridges and tunnels, and all that experience is very useful as I take on more challenging work.”

Nepali building bridges in Tasmania

Usually in winter, air quality in Kathmandu is equivalent to smoking two packs of cigarettes a day. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/wildfire-season-starts-early-in-nepal">wildfires raging</a> across central Nepal for the past weeks may have increased that to four packs a day. <a href="https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@86.3,28.9,7.0z" target="_blank">NASA’s Fire Information and Resource Management System (FIRMS)</a> uses infrared heat detecting satellites to map the world for fires. While central India and Burma are the worst affected, forests along the central Tarai and the mountains south of Kathmandu have hundreds of red dots — each representing a forest fire. Kathmandu Valley had the worst air quality of any city in the world on Monday afternoon, according to <a href="https://www.iqair.com/world-air-quality">Swiss-based air quality tracker IQ Air</a>. Air Quality Index (AQI) which measures the concentration of tiny suspended particles in the air smaller than 2.5 microns hit 250 because of soot particles from smoke combined with pre-existing pollution from vehicular and industrial emissions.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250331110320_6ea6ed9ab5fceefd0b46e5ba59222eefe6f838b475a75a5ec2c12598ffccb6eb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250331110320_6ea6ed9ab5fceefd0b46e5ba59222eefe6f838b475a75a5ec2c12598ffccb6eb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1896" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="NASA FIRMS 29 March"> <figcaption>More than 200 forest fires are burning in central Nepal with prevailing winds blowing it up the valleys to Pokhara and Kathmandu, worsening air quality. This NASA FIRMS satellite image was taken on Sunday afternoon.</figcaption> </figure>  This was ten times higher than what the World Health Organization (WHO) has set as the threshold for healthy air. The microscopic particles cannot be seen by the naked eye and can jump the blood-air divide in capillaries in the lungs causing not just lung infections but also heart disease and cancer.&nbsp; The immediate effects of air pollution are felt in dry and burning eyes, itchy throats, difficulty breathing, headaches, and dizziness. In the longer term, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a major cause of death in Nepal, with the average life expectancy of Kathmandu’s residents has been reduced by 3.5 years.&nbsp; Despite studies, Nepal’s leaders are preoccupied with coalition politics, and little action has been taken to control vehicular emissions with green stickers, curb open garbage burning and industrial pollution. Studies have shown that in winter 60% of the air pollution over Kathmandu is transboundary from the south, and in November it is compounded by crop residue burning by farmers in India and Pakistan which prevailing winds blow up the Himalayan mountains.&nbsp; Forest fires are common in Nepal in the pre-monsoon months as farmers and herders set fire to slopes hoping for green shoots when the rains arrive for their livestock. But successive years of winter drought have meant that the wildfires have been starting earlier, and they spread fast because of high afternoon winds this time of year.&nbsp; On 29 March, there were at least 200 fires burning across central Nepal. The FIRMS satellite image also shows thick blue smoke blanketing the river valleys, reducing visibility and affecting flights. On Monday morning three flights attempting to land at Kathmandu airport had to divert due to runway visibility being below minimum.&nbsp; This level of pollution is classified as ‘extremely unhealthy, and &nbsp;has serious health impact not only on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/poisoning-children-at-school">vulnerable groups</a> like children, the elderly, and those who live with health conditions, but across Kathmandu’s population.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250331110324_b0f149ef5fc3f2657e883c311520b87d45e9636a7464ab418c691dd2bb6f6c7a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250331110324_b0f149ef5fc3f2657e883c311520b87d45e9636a7464ab418c691dd2bb6f6c7a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1778" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara Wildfire NT"> <figcaption>A fiery sunset over Phewa Lake in Pokhara on Sunday afternoon was caused by thick smoke from forest fires. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  After the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-revenge-of-the-rivers"> devastating September floods last year,</a> Kathmandu Valley and much of the country experienced a prolonged drought with little to no winter rain. Such prolonged dry spells raises fire risk, and with Kathmandu’s bowl-shaped topography concentrates pollutants. There are indications that high pollution levels do not just harm human health, but are also beginning to affect tourism. Operators in Pokhara said that there were many negative online posts by visitors unable to see the famous panorama of Machapuchre and the Annapurnas even from Sarangkot. Aviation is also affected, as planes have to circle sometimes for hours burning fuel for visibility to get better at Kathmandu airport. The higher fuel cost is just passed down to customers, making air tickets in and out of Kathmandu some of the highest in the world.&nbsp; Kathmandu’s toxic air quality is not a temporary phenomenon, it has consistently gotten worse. IQ Air places Kathmandu eighth out of 121 capital cities with the worst air quality in 2024, and Nepal is seventh among countries with the highest air pollution. The State of Global Air (SOGA) Report published last June <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/bad-air-and-polluted-politics">revealed </a>more than 50,000 Nepalis died from air pollution in 2021, accounting for 19% of all mortality, just behind high blood pressure. Kathmandu, with a population of four million, has not implemented a concrete policy to curb toxic air despite having formulated various action plans and repeated commitments by the government to protect the environment and control air pollution. The Department of Environment’s &nbsp;2017 Air Quality Management Action Plan for Kathmandu put forward a policy to reduce air pollution caused by vehicles which was approved by the Cabinet, but has yet to be put to practice. The action included the immediate implementation of the Euro 5 emission standard to reduce pollution emitted by vehicles. But Nepal has not even been able to implement Euro 4 standards so far. India, meanwhile, has already moved forward with the implementation of the Euro 6 standards.&nbsp;

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