<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7959c7e80680e073790jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="426"/><figcaption>Photo: Jan Møller Hansen</figcaption></figure>Sometimes it can feel as though Nepal goes through endless cycles that bring us back every time to the place where we started. Maybe we just need more years to look back and see the progress.But up close, we seem to stand still. The present moment is like that. Consider these needs that remain urgent, yet have been forgotten:- The need for independent commissioners to deal with the demand of conflict victims for transitional justice, and the permanent need of society for the rule of law- The need for independent police accountability mechanism to deal with the way democratic rights are sometimes repressed, especially during this Covid-19 crisisBoth pre-requisites continue to be urgent if this country is ever <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/just-not-justice/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/just-not-justice/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGtLWBs7Xus1L_zPT0WtkitV5kdIA">to deal with impunity</a> and the daily humiliations of injustice that go unanswered. But we have been diverted time and again by petty politics.It is now two-and-half years since the elections that led to the creation of the Nepal Communist Party. Many saw this as a decisive moment, a time when we left behind our turbulent past and unified Nepal to bring prosperity.Some saw an opportunity at last for a ‘peace dividend’. In the international community, many considered it as a harbinger of stability, which would allow them to finally fully implement development programs free from the disruption of war and political intrigue.Very few were alert to the risks to human rights. It was almost as though political commentators and the diplomatic community shared the view that the political stability they thought was assured for the foreseeable future would automatically lead to a sudden respect for rights.These days, the pandemic is occupying people’s thoughts. Nepal faces grave risk as the disease spreads, and there is an urgent need for appropriate and effective countermeasures. But even before this massive unforeseen shock to our society, political stability and respect for human rights was looking less and less certain. In the past few months the uncertainty is even greater.One of the costs of ‘stability’ has been<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rights-groups-laud-nepal-supreme-court-ruling/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/rights-groups-laud-nepal-supreme-court-ruling/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGRsGP_JdoKTy2P5hcxFIywbmrKKQ"> transitional justice</a>. Remedy for victims of the conflict was put on hold after 2006, and especially two years ago, before the pandemic appeared on the scene. The promised truth commission has failed to deliver. Many of us had hoped that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/justice-in-transition/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/justice-in-transition/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGglmiYgU0GqwUo5BNdPUdaNVZGvQ">truth telling process</a> would be the foundation for institutional reforms in the justice system that had been put off year after year since the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/page/36/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/page/36/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFhkaxpPA84enmCgy6J2kws8NXaTQ">Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA)</a> of 2006.The marginalised in our society are denied access to justice, notably minorities such as Dalits and women victims of violence. Legitimate public protest is still met with harsh and excessive use of force by the police. Convictions in the courts still largely depend on confessions under torture and cruel treatment rather than proper, non-coercive investigation -- still a rare skill in Nepal to the shame of all of those involved in efforts to improve public security for all.Political, social and economic instability have gone hand in hand with violation of basic rights. They are mutually supporting dynamics.Since 2006, more and more Nepalis have come to rely on remittances from family members working overseas for their economic survival. This safety valve is now in doubt because of the economic downturn caused by the global pandemic.The idea that political stability and prosperity would put an end to human rights violations was always a pipe dream. A society with such entrenched discrimination is always going to find consensus difficult, and end up resorting to violence and coercion to maintain the status quo, or to resolve inevitable disputes.We can all agree that Nepal faces a difficult short and medium-term future. All human rights defenders now need to consider some key fundamentals:- Political infighting in the leadership can easily generate protests and counter-protests where human rights violations are common- The power struggle can impact political harmony at provincial and local levels which can lead to a higher risk of conflict- The health and economic crises risk endangering social stability. Medical staff are already at the frontlines of disputes and must get full support from the state and civil society to help them carry out their tasks, which are a matter of life and death not only for their patients but for the whole country.All this is also happening in a wider context of rising geopolitical tension between our two neighbours. On top of all the crises at home, we are now also living in a region which feels a lot less stable than it did a year ago.If we are to come out of this crisis stronger, some lessons will need to be learnt, and fast.Human rights defenders need to find better ways to work together and to set common agenda and activities which address the priority problems that our society is facing, including pervasive discrimination. Such injustice is real and corrosive, and most Nepalis suffer some form or other of discrimination every single day, wherever they live and whatever their occupation. Discrimination is like a ball and chain on the ankle of the country which slows our progress.This should also be a moment of reflection for our international friends who in the past have given such valuable support for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-transition-to-peace-needs-justice/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-transition-to-peace-needs-justice/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHHjkC_zEjI8bw-PwG570G1FgPMsw">peace process and the defence of human rights</a>. As the <a href="https://www.nhrcnepal.org/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nhrcnepal.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOabp5mzf2S4-IxxXBLGjQcf5pBw">National Human Rights Commission</a> (NHRC) international conference of 2018 indicated clearly, little or no progress has been made since the CPA on impunity -- the biggest obstacle in establishing genuine rule of law with equitable access to justice. Law and order cannot be maintained by harsh policing and ever more draconian legal restrictions on privacy and personal rights.We need to learn from the crisis which is upon us after two years of false promises of stability and social peace. We are no nearer to our common goal of rule of law than we were 14 years ago.Probably the most important step we can take once public health conditions allow, is to ensure that a genuine transitional justice process is finally implemented to mark the end of arbitrary governance and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/amnesty-on-nepal-impunity/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/amnesty-on-nepal-impunity/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGXUvh7Qv8HPrhYFlIzKg-vT4i2GQ">the end to impunity</a>.Our international partners have to give top attention to the fact that without rule of law, it will be hard to achieve economic development and investment. Respect for human rights is the foundation of Nepal’s economic progress and social harmony. We need our partners to be actively, constantly and transparently <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-runs-out-of-excuses-to-address-war-crimes/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-runs-out-of-excuses-to-address-war-crimes/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEeJv7d9e9j38e65VAtjAYQeCs-Mg">promoting transitional justice</a>, human rights and rule of law.The international community must make it clear to our leadership, with one voice, that they believe investing in Nepal is not an attractive prospect if a repressive and discriminatory justice system damages stability. The prospect of political stability does not remove the need for active promotion of human rights. The opposite is the case.One good starting point would be for human rights defenders and the international community to strongly urge a proper selection process, with civil society participation, for the new NHRC later this year.The same is true for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rocky-transition-to-justice/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rocky-transition-to-justice/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598491315641000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGjI50aSrYxicT7JYce-kNXMFQmzA">transitional justice commissions</a> and the constitutional commissions. The crisis of political stability must lead to a reflection on the errors of the past two years and teach us that without active promotion of human rights there is unlikely to be much progress in any sector in Nepal.With rule of law and justice, there will be progress. Without justice and respect for human rights, there will be nothing.Mohna Ansari is Commissioner, National Human Rights Commission of Nepal.

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Nepal must reboot human rights, rule of law

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41ab9c7e80680e04a68bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="519"/>The organisational infrastructure of the court system is of critical importance for the success of Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/federalisms-birth-pangs-or-death-rattle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new constitutional order</a>. It is in the lower courts that people come face to face with the judicial branch of government, and where the ordinary and routine forms of justice most directly affecting daily life are in practice. Subnational courts therefore should not be forgotten in considering the judiciary’s irreplaceable role in instilling a commitment to the rule of law and encouraging a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/grassroots-democracy-is-delivering-development/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new way of doing politics</a>.Nepal’s network of 77 district courts is the gateway for virtually all of the country’s litigation (85,000 cases in 2017-18, over which district courts oversaw final resolution to 60%). Yet both in resource allocation and in public imagination, these courts are the most neglected. It is remarkable that a mere 241 judges discharge the enormous workload.Read also:Part 1: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Federalism, rule of law and the judiciary</a>, George Varughese and Iain PaynePart 2: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/constitutional-guardianship-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Constitutional guardianship in Nepal</a> , George Varughese and Iain PayneWhile the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/share-rule-and-self-rule/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 Constitution</a> has changed the executive and legislative, the court structure has not undergone significant revision, except to add two district courts — for a total of 77 — and to refashion 16 appellate courts as seven high courts with their 11 benches extended across respective provinces.The subordinate courts now have slightly enlarged purview. For the first time, provincial high courts will be able to hear public interest litigation, hopefully lessening some of the Supreme Court’s caseload burden. District courts now supervise all justice institutions, formal and informal, below the district level.District courts also have increased authority to oversee criminal offences punishable by more than one year imprisonment, many of which were previously adjudicated by quasi-judicial bodies like the district administration office. They have new jurisdiction over some civil matters previously supervised by the district executive.Critical access-to-justice issues have been inherited from the previous governance setup. For example, the geographical inaccessibility of the district courts, which remain the lowest court in judicial hierarchy and sit at the now obsolete district headquarters, are one of the key reasons why only a fraction of disputes tends to be registered with the proper court and judicial authority. The judiciary’s absence in municipal government is glaring and hardly addressed by the presence of so-called judicial committees, which fall under the municipal executive.Moreover, wholesale state restructuring must take into account roles and responsibilities of different justice sector institutions at the local level, and the judicial branch’s reflections on these would be timely in guiding other branches of government. This is especially the case with regard to judicial committees in 753 locations, about which inconsistent visions are projected in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/constitutional-guardianship-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Constitution</a> and the Local Government Operations Act of 2017— the federal framework legislation that presently guides local government operations. This is also the case with the option provided for in the Constitution allowing the creation of local courts if required. The judicial branch’s reluctance to provide guidance on constitutional provisions for accessing justice beyond district courts could result in costly adjustments.These issues need to be addressed to guide the creation of a coherent and coordinated system for accessing justice locally, one that builds community and citizen trust in the entire justice sector and positions the judiciary in its rightful place in government. The lowest rungs of the judicial branch carry the greatest burden in making justice more accessible to more people. Much work, therefore, remains to be done to ensure that the promise of bringing all three branches of government closer to the people is fulfilled.Renewed commitments to judicial independence headlined the recently concluded National Conference of Judges. However, aside from the hot-button topic of judicial appointments that dominated discussion, only a few creative ideas emerged. Perhaps the most federally relevant of those related to empowering provincial courts to settle disputes between provinces and municipalities. Ideas such as this, while nascent, indicate that the judiciary may be willing to look for ways to be more responsive to the needs of the changed governance context.With a recently appointed Chief Justice and remaining vacancies filled, Nepal’s Supreme Court is drafting its fourth strategic plan with more stable leadership and better prepared justices than ever before. This will drive the judiciary’s institutional vision, direction and contribution to democratic government in Nepal over the next five years.Previous strategic plans have focused on court administration, caseload management, infrastructural and modernisation needs, and training programs. These remain necessary but will be insufficient to fulfil the difficult role of rethinking and reworking access to justice in a federal context. Oversight of the judicial functions of the state — wherever those may be located — is a key strategic metric of performance of the judicial branch.More difficult will be the deep institutional introspection and principled actions required to assert independence while exercising guardianship of the rule of law. It is vital that the judicial branch of the government sees itself as a trusted partner of both state and society, with its functionaries embracing their role as ‘justices of the people’ and not just of the court.Only then will a constitutional culture shaped by the rule of law translate into access to justice in federal Nepal.This concludes a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three-part series</a> by Iain Payne and George Varughese who are associated with <a href="http://nitifoundation.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Niti Foundation</a>.

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Devolving the judiciary

<figure><img width="1250" height="1145" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121140/636a40489c7e80680e04a610jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Pic: Bhanu Bhattarai</figcaption></figure>The 2015 Constitution and arrival of fresh political leaders through nationwide elections in 2017 promised a more equal and inclusive New Nepal. Political power would be devolved from elite-captured Kathmandu,  and development balanced across all regions of the country, with greater appreciation for religious and ethnic diversity and increased participation of the marginalised in governance.There is broad acceptance that this ongoing transformation will have durable effects on the quality of the country’s governance. Yet there remains widespread anxiety that those now in decision-making positions in government will shirk their responsibility and opt for cosmetic adjustments rather than fundamental change.Part 2: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/constitutional-guardianship-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Constitutional guardianship in Nepal</a>, George Varughese and Iain PayneThe Constitution promises to bring government closer to citizens through a new federal structure wherein federal, provincial and local governments are coequal.  With 753 local governments, seven new provinces, and local and provincial assemblies with more than 35,000 elected representatives, the executive and legislative levels of government are now functional and more visible to citizens.However, minimal attention has been given to the judiciary’s key role in impelling constitutional values in government — starting with the rule of law and access to justice — and contributing to the success of the ongoing transformation.This is neither mysterious nor casual: neglect of the judiciary is quite usual in Nepal. The undermining and sidelining of the judiciary over many years is part of a sordid story of collusion by political parties across the spectrum to weaken, co-opt and subordinate state institutions that deter impunity and constrain opportunism.A quick measure of this neglect is the steady decline in the already-meagre annual allocation of state resources for the judiciary, today at its lowest levels of funding in years — a mere 0.34% of the government’s budget, down from 0.57% in 2015-16. Continued failure to invest in this co-equal branch of government — the one meant to constrain unlawful action — undermines the transformational project of the 2015 Constitution.Three years after the adoption of a new Constitution it is also necessary for the judicial branch to consider its role in ensuring that rule of law and access to justice is better under federalism.While much hope has been placed in the 2015 Constitution, it cannot in and of itself transform the country’s constitutional and political culture, which has been shaped over decades of perverse governance praxis that accepts collusion and impunity, crises and destabilisation, and backroom deals and horse-trading as normal.New norms of politics must be embraced. The rule of law, and buttressing it the judicial branch of government, is at the heart of this reshaping of politics.The rule of law is concerned with the principled exercise and accountability of governmental power. It requires adherence to the laws of the land, beginning with the Constitution, by all.Elected representatives and appointed officials alike must abide by the same rules as everyone else, there is no special pass for those in power. Sadly, the main threat to federalism in Nepal is the absence of the rule of law, exemplified by ongoing abuse of the Constitution by those charged with protecting it.It has been persuasively argued elsewhere that the rule of law demands public justification for the exercise of public power. This process must be championed by the judicial branch as the expression of its own authority, one to which public actors and citizens must learn to conform. In the setting of the courthouse, the branches of government must justify the legitimate exercise of power and be able to defend their actions. The judicial process thus contributes to a constitutional culture in which the arbitrary exercise of power is discouraged.It is in this sense that the rule of law may be talked about as a value. It is a critical, missing feature of Nepal’s constitutional culture, one which the judicial branch of government must salvage, nurture and return to public service.This is the first of a three-part series by George Varughese and Iain Payne who are associated with Niti Foundation.

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Federalism, rule of law and the judiciary

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

Of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in next week’s election in Nepal, an estimated 5 million are abroad and cannot cast their ballots. Many others within Nepal must travel to their home districts, and might decide not to because of the cost.
Flights into Kathmandu these days are full of global Nepalis returning just to vote, but almost as many are leaving for overseas jobs. Most of those coming or going are in the 20-40 age group, and a majority want Nepal to see a change in leadership.
Bangladesh held an election this month in which citizens overseas could vote by mail.&nbsp;
“Bangladesh made maximum use of technology not just for campaigning but also for polling itself. We could have also managed this, so people within Nepal did not have to travel to their home districts to vote,” says Mohna Ansari, former head of Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission who was an election observer in Bangladesh.
A 3-day holiday has been declared so people can travel to their home constituencies to cast ballots. Even if there was not enough time to manage ballots for overseas Nepalis, it could have been done for Nepalis within Nepal.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel reckons that physical voting in countries with a large Nepali diaspora would have been a logistical nightmare, but in the PR system, using electronic voting machines or paper ballot could have been piloted in some places. It is not possible to manage the entire voting process until we introduce the internet voting system.
“First of all, there needs to be political will to bring the policy and be ready to undertake that level of investment and it is not a one-time cost,” Pokharel says. “A government formed by the GenZ could have atr least issed an ordinance ensuring this right, piloted out-of-country voting where possible, which could have built pressure for the future Parliament and the government. It would have given people hope. It is a lost opportunity.”
All major political parties called for voting rights for global Nepalis in their manifestos, but these very leaders blocked legislation allowing it despite a 2017 Supreme Court ruling out of fear that it would be anti-incumbent.&nbsp;
<h2>Why so late?</h2>
Bangladesh delivered election results in just one day, but the final results of Nepal's last local polls in 2022 including that of Kathmandu constituencies took nearly a month.
Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari said this week that the results of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) ballot counting would “likely” be published within 24 hours of the poll closing at 5PM on 5 March. But many are skeptical.
“I wonder if we lack the capacity or know-how to announce results as quickly as possible,” says Mohna Ansari.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Pokharel says manual ballot paper counting in Nepal is inherently slow because of the large numner of political parties and/or candidates on the ballot, the counting mechanism, the political behaviour of the candidates/parties and some managerial issues during counting.
“Our present policy is to count all the ballot papers at the returning officers' officies, located at the district headquarters. It requires collecting ballot boxes safetly first. This takes time, and there have been cases of ballot boxes being damaged or stolen during transport. In a few highly difficult, geographically remote polling centres, we use a helicopter or transport. But sometimes, accommodating the party and candidates' representatives remains challenging,” explains Pokharel. A solution could be counting ballots at the very booths where they are cast.
Another reason for the delay is simply the number of political parties, and the need for each ballot paper to be examined by booth representatives for consensus. In close races, the smallest difference can lead to tense situations, further delaying results, even though counting centres are protected by metal fencing so there is no disruption.
After this, then it is the turn of Proportional Representation (PR) ballots to be counted. Weeks pass by the time the results of candidates and parties are tallied and verified. But the most common delay is because election officers think ballot counting is a nine-to-five job.&nbsp;
“The efficiency of poll station officers is most important, and they are incentivised for this,” says Ansari, adding that counting can even start within an hour after voting closes.
In remote areas, local resources could be mobilised to make counting quicker, but there is a crisis of trust, adds Ansari.&nbsp;
That could be easily solved with electronic voting which the EC implemented in the 2008 polls but discontinued because political parties felt the machines could be hacked or manipulated.