<img width="500" height="750" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372043d9c7e80680e0b284fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372043f9c7e80680e0b2850jpeg.jpg" alt="">Photos: BIKRAM RAI/NEPALI TIMESEarthquakes are inevitable in Nepal. It is not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’. And ‘when’ was 2:28PM on 15 January 1934. It was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">11:56AM on 25 April, 2015</a>. Another memorable and tragic date in future is certain.But Nepalis have short memories. As long as aftershocks shook us, we were reminded about the horrors. But seven years after 2015, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tall-order/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the fear has evaporated</a>.This is not panic-mongering, or crying wolf. It is reality: every part of the central Himalaya is hit by a megaquake above 8 magnitude every 500 years or so, and a moderate intensity quake every 100 years.The 2015 disaster was not a Big One, 1934 was. Nonetheless, both released some of the built-up tectonic tension underneath us. What worries Himalayan seismologists is that there has been no <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">major earthquake in western Nepal</a> in the last 500 years. The rock strata beneath are stretched to breaking point.Experts tell us that if an 8M earthquake strikes in this seismic gap between Pokhara and Dadeldhura, it will also rock Kathmandu and be even more damaging than 2015.That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">7.8M earthquake seven years ago</a> was comparable to the 7.7M quake in Gujarat in 2001, and the 7.6M temblor in 2005 in Kashmir. In 2015, Nepal saw greater physical damage, but India and Pakistan had much higher casualties. One reason was that we were lucky 25 April 2015 was a Saturday, and students were not in classrooms.To mark National Earthquake Safety Day on 15 January, we recap the past seven years. There is some good news: over 80% of reconstruction is complete. Nepal’s recovery has been smoother than other developing countries hit by mega disasters.  Despite initial delays due to political muddles and the Blockade, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reconstruction in most sectors</a> picked up in 2016. Today, only health facilities and heritage sites are lagging at about 65% completion. Most rebuilt homes follow national seismic resistance guidelines because masons were trained, and there was monitoring before grants were released in installments.However, reconstruction in Kathmandu and other towns have not even passed the 60% mark, and could take another five years. The Rs300,000 reconstruction grant was just not enough for families to rebuild urban homes. More worrisome is that whatever has been rebuilt in Kathmandu Valley mostly flout building codes and permits.The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gongabu neighbourhood saw 160 deaths</a> in 2015, most of them were crushed under illegally built concrete structures. Most of those high rises have been rebuilt using the same faulty techniques.Except in Gongabu, most concrete structures survived the 2015 quake in Kathmandu. This has <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/false-sense-of-security-about-strength-of-reinforced-concrete-structures,2240" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforced public misconception</a> that cement houses, regardless of how they are built, are stronger than brick and mortar ones.However, seismologists say that if the tremors in 2015 were only a few seconds longer and the magnitude slightly higher, many of Kathmandu’s concrete buildings would have also collapsed. They are unlikely to be spared in the next big one.Seven years after the earthquake, it is back to business as usual. In fact, Kathmandu is now more dangerous because it is even more densely packed, and there are more multi-storey blocks. Clearly, awareness about earthquakes has not translated into safer construction — we have forgotten that earthquakes do not kill people, poorly built structures do.Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET) tells us that building codes need to be strictly enforced with stringent monitoring mechanisms. Municipalities must be stricter with building permits.Next, masons and concrete moulding workers need skills upgrading in earthquake resistant building technology. Security personnel now need <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">training in search and rescue</a> under collapsed concrete structures.Shrestha says schools, hospitals and public buildings need to be retrofitted urgently. Many schools NSET had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparedness-saves-lives,2264" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">helped retrofit</a> withstood the 2015 earthquake, and this model needs to be replicated across western Nepal.Nepal’s towns are losing open spaces, which are vital as shelters in the aftermath of future earthquakes. Kathmandu must <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-artists-butterfly-effect/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">protect remaining open spaces</a>, and these efforts need to be scaled up not just for earthquake safety but also to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mini-forests-to-make-kathmandu-more-liveable/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">restore the city’s lungs</a>.   Preparedness will mean life or death for all Nepalis, not just for those in the seismic gap in the western part of the country. This should be the main message on the National Earthquake Safety Day. Earthquakes are beyond our control, but we can <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">make ourselves safer</a> when they happen.Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

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Lessons still not learnt

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2659c7e80680e08f90ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720"/><figcaption>The brand new Patan School building that is nearing completion with support from the Japanese aid agency. A raft concrete foundation makes it withstand a magnitude 8 earthquake. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>It took 40 seconds for the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">25 April 2015 earthquake</a> to seriously <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">damage or demolish some 50,000 classrooms</a> across central Nepal. If the earthquake had not struck on a Saturday, the death toll would have been unimaginable.More than five years after a disaster that could have had a much more catastrophic outcome, and with most of the schools now rebuilt, Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/be-prepared/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">does not seem to have learnt its lesson</a>. The Covid-19 crisis has forced schools into hibernation, schools in other parts of Nepal are not prepared, and the retrofitting of classrooms has languished.“Given the scale of the 2015 earthquake, our reconstruction process has been quite satisfactory but we are not prepared enough for future mega-quakes,” says Surya Narayan Shrestha, executive director of the National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET) Nepal.Indeed, National Earthquake Safety Day on 15 January which commemorates the 8.3 magnitude 1934 earthquake that devastated Kathmandu, is the right time to assess our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness for future disasters</a>.“<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Western Nepal hasn’t had a major earthquake</a> in a long time and a lot of stress has accumulated,” warns Shrestha. “But no part of the country will be spared, and we are not prepared for it – especially public buildings such as schools and hospitals.”Nepali Times surveyed some of the rebuilt schools in and around Kathmandu, and in general the new structures appear to be of seismic resistant design. However, because there have been no classes for nearly a year, there have been no preparedness drills.At <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/back-to-school-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tripadma High School</a> in Patan, a retrofitted block withstood the tremors in 2015, and  served as a shelter for the community for more than a month. However, an older building was heavily damaged and got a red sticker in the post-quake assessment.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2689c7e80680e08f90bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd26c9c7e80680e08f90cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024">(Left to right) Two eight room buildings inside Tripadma School in Patan built after the 2015 earthquakes to acommodate the growing number of students. A retrofitted building next to it, survived the disaster and served as a shelter for the community in its aftermath. Photos: SONIA AWALEAcross town, the Padmodaya High School in Putali Sadak would have had 1,000 students in the classrooms if the 2015 quake had struck on a regular day. The building was destroyed. A newly built, sturdier structure next to it survived and was a temporary home for many in the aftermath of the disaster.According to the Central Level Project Implementation Unit (CLPIU) under the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA), a total of 7,923 schools and 49,681 classes were damaged in the earthquakes.“After the earthquake, we conducted classes in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/keeping-the-children-in-safe-classrooms,3057" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">temporary learning centres</a> for two years. It was unbearably hot under zinc sheets during summer. The roof leaked when it rained,” recalls Principal Narayan Prasad Gautam of Padmodaya School. “Things have got better with the new building. The engineer has assured me it can stand a 9M quake.”Tripadma and Padmodaya were both rebuilt with support from CLPIU and are two of the 7,553 schools the Nepal Reconstruction Authority (NRA) targeted for rebuilding post 2015 earthquakes. Five years since the earthquake, 6,085 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepals-schools/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">school buildings have been reconstructed</a> and another 1,468 are still under construction.“We have reconstructed some 80% of the schools and the rest will be completed by June,” says Gopal Prasad Aryal of NRA. The government entity has also been working on rebuilding 44 universities and colleges with financial support from India. “We now have strong infrastructure with water, toilets and ramps. Our hope is that it aids the quality of education.”This year’s National Earthquake Safety Day will have to also work on regular disaster preparedness drills, and reminders on earthquake safety. And as memories of the 2015 earthquake fade, many are becoming complacent with construction that flout the building code. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">western half of the country</a> has little or no information about earthquake safety.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F2eKkUmvNALike most houses rebuilt after the 2015 earthquakes, schools from Kavre to Gorkha now use <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforced concrete structures</a>. This means safety drills will have to be adjusted, and search and rescue procedures completely revamped to take into account the new construction material.The lack of trained professionals and training in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">search, locate and rescue in collapsed concrete structures</a> will be wholly different than in 2015, when most of the collapsed buildings were of lighter timber, brick and mud mortar construction.In 2015, crucial hours in rescue operations were lost because of the lack of concrete cutters, and with them, lives. Some children who had already escaped swaying buildings rushed indoors to perform duck-cover-hold procedures taught at schools when the structures collapsed on them.“Despite having earthquake resistant structures we have drills at least once a month in school so that students have complete knowledge regarding earthquake safety,” says Tashi Tenzing Norgay of Nepal Green Tara Foundation which rebuilt two <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/rebuild-school-after-earthquake,3458" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">schools in Nuwakot</a> in 2014. When the earthquake hit central Nepal in 2015, those two schools were among the few still standing.After the earthquake, the foundation has built three more schools. “Infrastructure is important but so is earthquake education,” says Norgay. But the importance of drills have been forgotten in most schools, especially as schooling scenarios changed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.With schools closed for the past 10 months because of the Covid-19 pandemic, students have had no <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17851#.YAExZ-gzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">earthquake preparedness training</a>. But as schools prepare to open now, the focus will largely be on infrastructure that ensures social distancing.Local governments are working with the Health ministry and UNICEF to launch the Learning Continuity Campaign this week. The campaign engages parents, teachers and local government, providing guidance on safe reopening of schools and alternative modes of instruction like home-schooling, low-tech solutions like telephone/SMS for learning, radio programs on parenting and specific focus on marginalised children to prevent dropout, have been highlighted.The newly-built infrastructure of the schools has been a draw for some parents, thus upping the number of enrollment to community schools at a time when Covid-19 crisis has weakened economic status.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd26f9c7e80680e08f90djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Many public schools have noted a rise in admission of students from private schools.Patan School with its ghantaghar like clock tower (pictured above) stands out in the midst of the high rises, and is a model for earthquake safe school reconstruction.Funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Rs 320 million building has a concrete foundation raft designed to withstand magnitude 8 shaking. The school has solar and rainwater harvesting backup, classes are spacious, and labs well-equipped.Upgrading in infrastructure, however, does not always guarantee an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">improved standard of instruction</a>. Patan School may have a fancy new building, but is grappling with enough teachers and students to fill the new classrooms, as well as a maintenance budget from the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/ministry-of-education-gets-an-f/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Education Ministry</a>.“There are now bigger, better school buildings but it won’t make a difference to the quality of education at this rate,” says Rajendra Dahal, editor of Shishyak monthly. “The 2015 earthquake and this pandemic could have been an opportunity to upgrade both hardware and software of our education system, but the teaching standards have instead, downgraded.”Indeed, the only thing going for most post-earthquake government schools is that they will be safer during a future earthquake. Otherwise it is the same curricula, under-motivated and under-paid teachers, lack of facilities and budgets.

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Lessons not learned from 2015

<figure><img width="1607" height="1262" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2589c7e80680e08f906jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Earthquake Safety Day 2004 coverage. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #178 </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s National Earthquake Safety Day commemorates 15 January 1934, the day when a magnitude 8.3 quake epicentred in Okhaldhunga, killed at least 17,000 people. It is known as the ‘Bihar Earthquake’ because Nepal was closed to the outside world then, and the British had more information on the damage and casualties in northern India.That sunny winter afternoon, temples and homes in Kathmandu crumbled in clouds of brown dust. Geysers of water shot out of fields, as the soil was squeezed like a sponge. In the royal palace, two of King Tribhuvan’s daughters were killed. Of Kathmandu Valley’s total population of 200,000, more than eight thousand died that day. Survivors, now in their 90s, have traumatic childhood memories of death, destruction and fear.Today, Kathmandu’s population is 3 million. Buildings are densely-packed and most are multi-storey concrete structures. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu ranks #1</a> on the list of Top Ten cities in the world most vulnerable to a catastrophic earthquake. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha Raihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F2eKkUmvNAThe magnitude 7.8 and 7.3 quakes in 2015 were warnings for Nepal to be prepared. Nearly 9,000 people were killed in 14 districts in and around Kathmandu, but the casualties could have been much higher if the intensity was a little higher, and the shaking had lasted a few seconds more. And, as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">our report this week on school reconstruction</a> shows, the number of children who would have been killed had the quake not struck on Saturday at noon, is so high as to be unthinkable. That danger is not over. Seismic resistant classrooms and school retrofitting is one of the most urgent investments that Nepal can make. <figure><img width="1491" height="1182" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd25c9c7e80680e08f907jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Earthquake Safety Day 2011 coverage. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #536</figcaption></figure>The good news, as we report, is that most schools that were damaged in 2015 have been built back stronger. The attention of school administrators should now be on Covid-19 safety when classes resume, as well as upgrading the curriculum. But we also need to move beyond central Nepal that was impacted by the 2015 quakes to make classrooms safer in other parts of the country. This is most urgent in western Nepal, which Himalayan seismologists say, has not seen a mega quake for nearly 700 years, and one is long overdue.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepals-schools/">Quake was a learning experience for Nepal’s schools</a>, Prakriti Kandel <figure><img width="1535" height="1169" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd25f9c7e80680e08f908jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Earthquake Safety Day 2013 coverage. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #638</figcaption></figure> To be sure, a 8.5 magnitude earthquake epicentred in western Nepal will be a regional catastrophe, affecting the densely-populated north Indian plains, and scientists say its impact on Kathmandu could actually be worse than the 2015 disaster. The most important lesson we must learn on National Earthquake Safety Day from the 40 seconds of shaking at 11:56am on 26 April 2015 is that we have to be better prepared — strengthening existing schools, hospitals and public buildings, enforce a building code on new ones, follow zoning laws, pre-position digging equipment and supplies, conduct drills for search, rescue, and relief. This is not panic-mongering, it is a question of life or death.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale <figure><img width="1830" height="1268" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2629c7e80680e08f909jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> Nepali Times editorial on Earthquake Safety Day, three months before the 2015 earthquake. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #740</figcaption></figure> Every Earthquake Safety Day over the past two decades, this newspaper has carried the same message: let’s be prepared. Ironically, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/earthquakes-dont-kill-people-weak-houses-and-bad-planning-do,1930" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">an editorial three months before the 2015 earthquake struck</a> was titled ‘Preparing to be prepared’.  The message bears repeating: the next big earthquake in Nepal is not a question of if, but when.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mind the gap</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/">Disastrous management in Nepal</a>, Sewa Bhattarai

Be prepared

<figure><img width="1140" height="550" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23129c7e80680e0417c7jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: Nature Communications</figcaption></figure>What makes Nepal scenic is also what makes it seismic. The country is located in one of the most vulnerable regions of the world for earthquakes, and our ancestors were used to them happening regularly. They knew that as they rebuilt after one earthquake, they had to prepare for the next one. A scientific paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07874-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nature Communications </a>this month gives us a sobering reminder of this danger. Even as we catch up with reconstruction and rehabilitation after 2015, we have to scale up to the whole country our preparedness for the Next Big One.Himalayan earthquakes fall into two main types. There are moderate intensity quakes like the ones in 2015 and 2008 which are accompanied by a lot of shaking, but do not deform the surface. Then there are gigantic upheavals like the 8.3 magnitude 1934 quake epicentred in eastern Nepal which destroyed much of Kathmandu, and the 8.7 magnitude Assam earthquake in 1950, described as the greatest earthquake to hit the Himalaya in recorded history. Megaquakes like these uplift the surface and are what formed the Himalaya.Seismologists studying data from the 2015 event have concluded that the Gorkha Earthquake ruptured eastwards, and stopped underground somewhere south of Kathmandu Valley, and instead of releasing the stores stress, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/01/earthquakes-priming-himalaya-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased tectonic tension</a> underneath Central Nepal. They say moderate quakes like 2015 can actually trigger future megaquakes as the rock layers release accumulated stress along faults.These urgent warnings came as Nepal marked the anniversary of the 1934 megaquake last week as National Earthquake Safety Day.Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Bilham</a> says the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. In fact, it is still collecting energy beneath us and it could be let off in the near future just as the 1833 earthquake in Kathmandu was followed by another one 30 years later. The second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Added to the unfinished business of 2015, there is also the danger posed by the seismic gap in western Nepal which has not seen a megaquake since 1505. The western half of the country was not affected by 2015, and is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness there about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquake safety</a>.The focus on rebuilding in 14 districts of central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake should not stop us from getting western Nepal prepared for the Big One. Indeed, the whole of Nepal, northern India and the region should brace itself because a megaquake of 8.5 magnitude in western Nepal would cause widespread death and devastation across northern South Asia, which is the world’s most densely-populated region. Seismologists warn it could possibly be the worst disaster in human history in terms of loss of life.Response to the 2015 earthquake should now encompass the whole country, schools need to be retrofitted, hospitals and public buildings reinforced, and disaster management plans be put into place. But as with everything else in Nepal, we tend to focus on a disaster that has already occurred than on the one that has not struck yet. The answer may lie in provincial and local governments enforcing building codes and drawing up preparedness plans, a job for which the national government has so far been deficient. The 2015 earthquakes were an important <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.WtRzzNRua71" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warning</a> for us to be better prepared for the really big one. Despite the tragic loss of 8,900 lives, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/kunda-dixit-when-earthquake-struck-nepal,2214" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal got off relatively lightly</a> three years ago for a quake of that magnitude. It struck on a Saturday when schools were closed, the telecommunication network was functioning, highways were open, electricity supply was restored fairly quickly and Kathmandu Airport was not damaged. Next time we <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/big-earthquake-still-coming-nepal,2815" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may not be so lucky</a>. Monks in Tibet noted the exact time of the last big quake in western Nepal at 6AM on 1 June 1505. Estimated at 8.9, that earthquake devastated north India, destroyed Agra and other Moghul cities, may have trigged the Annapurna slope collapse that dammed the Seti River which burst to create the debris field where Pokhara is located today. There is now so much slip deficit beneath western Nepal that a sudden elastic rebound can move the entire half of the country southwards by a shocking 14m. The Gorkha Earthquake three years ago was just a forewarning of an even bigger disaster to come. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#435 of Nepali Times</a> for 23-26 January 2009, Prashant Jha in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15598#.XErqP1UzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his column Plain Speaking</a> wrote about the simmering anger in the Tarai two years after the Madhes uprising. Kathmandu's inability to heed this warning led to further violence when the constitution was promulgated in 2015. Excerpt:Two years after the Madhes movement altered Nepali nationalism, the Tarai is in a mess.Anger against Kathmandu was the defining feature of this period. Now, a mix of disillusionment, rage, helplessness and fear prevails. Macro politics is more fragmented than ever, across party and caste lines. And at the micro level violence has become the only tool to resolve political and personal disputes.Kathmandu can appoint a credible minister for Tarai affairs to handle political grievances, local killings, micro disputes, administrative weakness, agreement implementation. Full time, sensitive, and sincere engagement with the plains is the only hope.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23159c7e80680e0417c8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="509" height="816"></a>

AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

<figure><img width="1400" height="922" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369042d9c7e80680e037d08jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Om Astha Rai</figcaption></figure>One-and-a-half years after being fired for failing to speed up post-earthquake recovery, Sushil Gyewali is back as the CEO of National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) that was set up to oversee reconstruction after the 2015 earthquake.The way <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/no-money-for-helicopters-to-distribute-earthquake-relief,2792" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gyewali was hired</a>, fired and re-hired shows how reconstruction has been a casualty of intense <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/reconstruction-in-ruins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political rivalry</a> in Nepal. He is the fifth NRA Chief in less than three years, and in that time only one-third of the 600,000 earthquake-destroyed houses have been rebuilt. Only half the schools have been reconstructed.Gyewali was appointed by K P Oli of the UML when he was prime minister in 2016, but labeled “incompetent”and sacked by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal when the Maoist Chair was heading a coalition government with the Nepali Congress.However, after the Maoists-UML merged into the Nepal Communist Party, won last year’s elections, and came to power again, Oli reinstated Gyewali at the NRA.In an interview with Nepali Times this week, Gyewali said the charges about his under-performance were “politically-motivated”. He added: “They needed to criticise me because they wanted to overthrow the government that had appointed me. Earthquake reconstruction has always been held hostage to politics.”However, with his NCP mentors now firmly in power, Gyewali may face fewer obstacles during this tenure. He is now backed by a strong and stable government with a two-third majority in Parliament, and just like the KP Oli government itself, he has no excuses to fail or under-perform this time.The law allows the government to extend the NRA’s tenure by one year, but Gyewali says he is not even looking for an extension. “All earthquake-destroyed private homes will be rebuilt in the remaining two years, or even sooner,” he promised.When he was first appointed as the NRA Chief, Gyewali rued the absence of locally-elected representatives of people. But now, all of Nepal’s 752 local levels have mayors or village heads. He says working with elected mayors and village chairs to accelerate post-earthquake reconstruction will make rebuilding much easier this time.“The NRA will now also have a federal structure,” he said. “We will delegate more power and responsibility of reconstruction to municipalities and village councils. Each local government will have its own reconstruction unit, and the engineers deployed by the NRA will be based there.”Under pressure to expedite reconstruction, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/genuine-earthquake-survivors-missing-from-housing-grant-list%20,3498" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous NRA leadership</a> had given earthquake survivors a short deadline to rebuild as per approved designs. It had warned that those unable to meet the deadline will not be eligible for the rest of the Rs300,000 reconstruction grants. Thousands of families borrowed from local money lenders and cooperatives to meet the deadline. Many also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-homes-on-a-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">built small, one-room houses</a> that were not seismic resistant, just to meet the NRA condition.The NRA has faced criticism for forcing earthquake survivors to build houses that do not meet their living requirements. Gyewali admitted the deadline added stress to earthquake survivors, but he said reconstruction would be too open-ended if there is no cut-off date to use housing grants. But he added: “We will now give a more realistic deadline.”The NRA also faces a funding crisis. Nepal has not received all the money pledged by donors. At the International Conference on Nepal’s Reconstruction on 25 June 2015, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparing-for-June-donor-summit,2300" target="_blank" rel="noopener">donors pledged more than $4.1 billion</a> to rebuild houses, schools, health facilities and other infrastructure. But the actual pledge, excluding non-reconstruction commitments, was just $3.43 billion. Even that money <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/broken-promises-reconstruction,3627" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has not been received in full</a>.As soon as he got back to his old office, Gyewali has been trying to find out how much there is in the kitty, and explore sources to meet the shortfall. Some are skeptical that the NRA will be able to finish reconstruction in the remaining two years, even though it is now headed by a CEO backed by a stable government.They say it was a mistake to copy Pakistan’s model of reconstruction by setting up a separate agency because Nepal’s socio-political landscape is different. Pakistan was ruled by the Army when it was devastated by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2005, and houses were rebuilt swiftly under a general. Also, survivors were given sufficient reconstruction grants and did not have to borrow as they had to in Nepal.Meanwhile, Nepal was in the throes of a polarised debate over the constitution when the earthquake struck on 25 April 2015. It was a foregone conclusion that reconstruction would face political obstacles, yet Nepal invited retired Pakistani Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmad to share his experience and this shaped the structure of the NRA.Asked about this, Gyewali said: “Copying the Pakistan model was probably a mistake. But did anyone propose a better model?”Read also:  '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11906&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lost in reconstruction</a>', Shiva Uprety'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11912&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Class struggle</a>', Prakriti Kandel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-baker-of-barpak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

Hired, fired, rehired

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636904049c7e80680e037cf9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="934"/><figcaption>OLD TO NEW: Barpak before the earthquake destroyed most of its buildings, and today with its haphazard modern concrete structures.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636904089c7e80680e037cfajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="934"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>B<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/back-in-barpak-after-eight-months-of-earthquake,2744" target="_blank" rel="noopener">arpak</a> was at the epicentre of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake three years ago, and due to media attention it also became <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/epicenter-barpak-born-again,2998" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the epicentre of reconstruction</a>.Residents mostly have relatives in the British and Indian armies, did not have the cash-crunch faced by survivors elsewhere. The town quickly rebuilt itself.While most displaced families were still <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/genuine-earthquake-survivors-missing-from-housing-grant-list%20,3498" target="_blank" rel="noopener">waiting for their first installment of housing grants</a> from the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA), most residents of Barpak were already living in their new houses.The scenic town in northern Gorkha made famous because it is the hometown of Victoria Cross soldier Gaje Ghale, has now completely recovered from the earthquake. More than 1,200 of the 1,301 houses destroyed have already been rebuilt, homestay tourism is thriving and remittance money is everywhere.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-baker-of-barpak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal PandeyHowever, Barpak is no more the picturesque ridgetop hamlet with stone buildings and elegant tile roofs. Barpak used to be a living museum of Gurung culture. The charm of the cobble stone streets and a settlement that existed in harmony with its surrounding mountains are a thing of the past.Today, Barpak looks like a clutter of concrete and cement, with architecture that is borrowed from the nondescript boxy construction that characterise Nepal’s highway towns. Every house is of a different size, design and shape.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Epicentre-of-reconstruction,2286" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bir Bahadur Ghale</a> is Barpak’s forward-looking pioneer of rural electrification, but even he is sorry he could not stop the erosion of the town’s heritage. He laments: “Our village has completely lost its original identity. Our children will see the original Barpak only in old pictures.”Read also: '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11912&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Class struggle</a>', Prakriti KandelThe main reason Barpak and other old towns have lost their traditional ambience is because the NRA insisted that families would only be eligible for government grants of Rs300,000 if they rebuilt by following its list of approved designs. But none of the listed blueprints included traditional motifs in the architecture.Just like in any other earthquake affected village, NRA engineers lacked an understanding of local culture and traditional grammar, drawing up generic seismic-resistant house designs.Some Barpak residents rang the alarm bell, warning fellow villagers that blindly following the government-approved house designs would lead to the loss of their unique identity. But no one listened.Read also: '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11917&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fired, hired, rehired</a>', Om Astha RaiIn a bid to rebuild Barpak without losing its heritage but still adopting seismic resistant technology, some local residents led by Bir Bahadur Ghale had proposed a reconstruction masterplan. But it was not approved by the government.Ghale recalls: “Our masterplan was neither rejected nor approved. It was kept in limbo for almost a year, and people could not wait. Barpak looks very colourful now. But it is not the same Barpak.”Jit Bahadur Ghale, another local resident, also tried to persuade neighbours to stick to their original architecture. But no one listened to him. He says: “Barpak lost its identity because outsiders imposed new designs on us.”Besides the compulsion to follow government-approved design, there was also a false realisation that Barpak’s original housing style was vulnerable to future earthquakes since most of the original buildings were flattened by the earthquake, killing 72 people. Many were crushed to death by stones and slates.People in Barpak used to stack up stone slates to roof their houses without using nails or hooks. After the earthquake, they realised that such practice would be a hazard in future earthquakes. And NRA engineers lacked creativity to infuse earthquake-resistant technology with Barpak’s unique architecture.Barpak residents whose relatives served in the British Army or are working in Hong Kong and Kathmandu, therefore, built modern concrete structures. Some, who did not have money, built <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-homes-on-a-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small and one-roomed homes</a> with the material salvaged from the ruins of their houses, just so they could get the government grant. Such houses do not meet their living requirement, and they are likely to be converted into cattle sheds.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Between-the-lines/epicentre-of-reconstruction-barpak-after-earthquake,493" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Epicenter of reconstruction</a>,  Tering Dolker Gurung<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/epicenter-barpak-born-again,2998" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barpak born again</a>,  Santa Gaha Magar<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/back-in-barpak-after-eight-months-of-earthquake,2744" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Back in Barpak</a>,  Ayesha Shakya

Lost in reconstruction

<h2>Preparing western Nepal for a future megaquake is now even more urgent than reconstruction in areas hit by the 2015 disaster</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca9e9c7e80680e02f320jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Yubaraj Shrestha</figcaption></figure>Nepalis live in one of the most seismically active zones in the world. Nepal is number one in the list of top ten countries vulnerable to catastrophic earthquakes. But even the 2015 disaster <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">will pale in comparison to a much bigger earthquake</a> which scientists say threatens western Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368caa19c7e80680e02f321jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Geologists are hesitant to predict when earthquakes will strike, they will only say it is going to happen one day and that we should be prepared.But Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472">Roger Bilham</a> prefers to tell people to their face that the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. He says it is still collecting energy that could be let off in future.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-prepared-are-we-for-the-next-big-one/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How prepared are we for the next big one?,</a> Sashi ShresthaBilham and other seismologists say there are two dangers lurking beneath the Himalaya: one is the unfinished business of 2015, and the other is a looming megaquake in western Nepal.Scientists agree that if a slip has already occurred in one section of the Himalaya, another earthquake of the same magnitude is unlikely to hit the same area for about 100 years – unless the energy has not been fully released.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mind the gap</a>, EditorialThe <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">2015 earthquake of 7.8 magnitude</a> has been compared to a similar intensity quake that hit Kathmandu in 1833. That one also did not completely dissipate its energy, and sure enough another quake hit the Valley in 1866.Bilham says that double  whammy could be repeated. However, the second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be in faults directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Fingers crossed that the energy will release itself in a creep, and not a jolt.The second scenario for western Nepal is even scarier. It could be the mother of all earthquakes because there hasn’t been a megaquake in western Nepal since an estimated 8.4 quake struck in 1505.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VjaSFEf4BUVideo: Robert Butler, University of PortlandBijay Krishna Upadhyay of <a href="http://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/">the National Society for Earthquake Technology</a> (NSET-Nepal) says the western half of the country is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal">earthquake safety</a>.After a relatively low intensity 6.8 magnitude earthquake epicentred in Udayapur killed nearly 700 people in Dharan and surrounding areas in 1988, it was easier for the government and organisations like NSET to convince people to build earthquake-resistant houses in eastern Nepal.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/1-3-empty-or-2-3-full/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1/3 empty or 2/3 Full</a>, Nigel Fisher“We now need to shift our attention not just to western Nepal but the entire country while continuing with reconstruction in the earthquake-affected districts,” says Upadhyay.A campaign to spread awareness about earthquake safety had been started in western Nepal after a 6.4 magnitude earthquake killed 180 people in and around Bajhang district in 1980. But the focus shifted to eastern Nepal after the Dharan tragedy.However, in the last three years the focus has once more gone to the 14 districts of Central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake. As a result, the western part of the country which scientists consider the most vulnerable is not prepared at all for an earthquake that is sure to hit one day.Ajaya Dixit, author of a recent book on disaster preparedness (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/disasters-in-Nepal-book-review,3965">Nepalma Bipad</a>), says: “Our response to the 2015 earthquake has largely focused on rebuilding damaged houses, and we have not looked at disasters in their entirety to prevent systemic vulnerability from reproducing itself elsewhere.”One government official who has been harping on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparedness-saves-lives,2264">retrofitting buildings</a> all over Nepal after the 2015 earthquake is Govind Raj Pokhrel, the former CEO of the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA). He proposed training on reinforced masonry all over the country, including the west, to ease the shortage of skilled bricklayers in the districts hit in 2015.“It could have helped technology transfer. After building houses in the earthquake-affected districts, they could have returned to their own villages in western Nepal and inspired others to build<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/05/26/the-building-blocks-of-reconstruction/"> earthquake-resistant houses</a>,” he explains.But the NRA bureaucracy and donors prefer to focus on a disaster that has already happened instead of one that has not struck yet. Pokhrel himself resigned to contest elections, and his proposal was shelved.One silver lining is that after last year’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-election-fever-federal-and-parliamentary-election,3982">local and provincial polls</a>, enforcing building codes are now mandatory in municipalities and villages across the country. Local governments will be the best place to implement this requirement, and some provincial governments have already prioritised disaster preparedness in their first plans and policies.In Province 4, Chief Minister Prithvi Subba Gurung has decided to set up an emergency relief fund, and promises to strictly implement the building code in Pokhara and other towns to prepare his region for future shock.“Nepalis tend to forget a tragedy very quickly, but our provincial government will never forget the lessons learnt from the 2015 earthquake,” Gurung told us.However good plans and policies sound, in Nepal the proof of the pudding is always in the implementation.Kathmandu has an excellent building code, for example, but it has been flagrantly flouted leading to the loss of lives in 2015.Dixit says awareness about disaster preparedness among local governments and the new national Disaster Management Act that focuses on preparedness are encouraging. But, he adds: “Major limitations exist: low institutional capacity, lack of financial and other resources, skill sets and equipment.”<h3>Himalayan seismic gaps</h3>What makes Mt Machapuchre (6990m) such a stunning peak (above) is also what makes it dangerous. Central and western Nepal have not suffered a megaquake for 700 years. Map below shows potential future intensity of earthquakes and slip in metres based on estimate of stored tectonic pressure along the Himalayan arc.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368caa29c7e80680e02f322jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="696"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472">Future shock</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471">Ruined future</a> <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221">Not-so-big One</a>,  From the Nepali Press

Past disasters foretold

<img width="1400" height="516" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca449c7e80680e02f2fcjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Seismologists say that the 2015 disaster in Nepal was the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35286798">most data-rich</a> <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/earthquakes-dont-kill-people-weak-houses-and-bad-planning-do,1930">Himalayan earthquake</a> ever studied. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/photos-nepal-earthquake-2015,2207">7.8 magnitude earthquake</a> moved eastwards along a rupture zone from its epicentre in Gorkha, but mysteriously lost speed and intensity by the time it arrived in Kathmandu before fizzling out south of the Valley. Nearly all the 14 districts affected are east of Gorkha. The amplitude and the pulse ripples in the sediment of the Valley floor downed many monuments, but left most of the concrete buildings intact. <img width="130" height="101" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca479c7e80680e02f2fdjpeg.jpg" alt="">The 2015 earthquakes were an important <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.WtRzzNRua71">warning</a> for us to be better prepared for the really big one. Despite the tragic loss of 8,900 lives, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/kunda-dixit-when-earthquake-struck-nepal,2214">Nepal got off relatively lightly</a> three years ago for a quake of that magnitude. Lots of other factors kept the fatalities low: had it struck on a weekday many tens of thousands of school children <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336">would have been killed in the 8,000 schools</a> that were badly damaged. Telecommunications did not go down, Kathmandu airport was back in operation within hours, and the highways remained passable.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4270&amp;preview=true">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha RaiNext time we <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/big-earthquake-still-coming-nepal,2815">may not be so lucky</a>. As coverage in this special third anniversary edition of this newspaper points out many of the badly-engineered ferrocement structures in Kathmandu will come down in the next big one. We will need specialised equipment and personnel trained in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676">search, locate, rescue</a> in collapsed concrete structures.Newly-elected municipalities will have to ensure preparedness by stopping encroachment on urban open spaces, prepositioning water and digging equipment, and have contingencies for telecommunications and transportation networks being knocked out.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/1-3-empty-or-2-3-full/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 1/3 empty or 2/3 full</a>, Nigel FisherThis is not scaremongering. Seismologists predict two dangers we have to prepare ourselves for: one is the incomplete tension release after 2015 along faultlines below Kathmandu Valley. This could set off another quake below 8 magnitude in the next decades.More worrying is the seismic gap in western Nepal where there hasn’t been a mega-earthquake in the last 700 years (see map). Monastic records in Tibet allow us to pinpoint the exact time of the last big earthquake there: 6AM on 1 June 1505. Estimated at 8.9, that earthquake devastated north India, destroyed Agra and other Moghul cities, may have trigged the Annapurna slope collapse that dammed the Seti River unleashing a tsunami when it burst. Pokhara today sits on the debris field of that cataclysmic flood.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4275&amp;preview=true">How prepared are we for the next big one</a>, Sashi ShresthaHimalayan seismologist Roger Bilham of Colorado University says there is now enough slip deficit beneath western Nepal that can trigger a sudden elastic rebound, moving the terrain southwards and upwards by a shocking 14m in seconds.An earthquake of 8.5 magnitude epicentred in Surkhet, for instance, would not just destroy much of western Nepal, but also the densely packed cities of the Indo-Gangetic plains. This could conceivably be the greatest loss of life in a natural disaster in human history. The shaking would be intense enough to devastate Kathmandu as well.As our coverage in this issue points out, it is now time to think beyond reconstruction in the 14 districts affected in 2015 to upgrading preparedness and disaster response in central and western Nepal. Buildings, especially schools and hospitals, need to be urgently retrofitted.The Gorkha Earthquake three years ago was just a forewarning of an even bigger disaster to come.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2016/01/13/stirred-not-shaken/">Stirred, not shaken</a>,  Kunda Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal">Preparing to be prepared</a>,  Kunda Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251">A concrete future</a>,  Sonia Awale

Mind the gap

Fenerbahçe Beko won the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague finals in Abu Dhabi, held 23-25 May, defeating Monaco 81-70 in the final. Olympiacos, who defeated Panathinaikos 97-93, finished the series in third place. The Most Valuable Player (MVP) of the final match, Nigel Hayes-Davis from Fenerbahçe Beko, received a prize of 1,000,000 Miles&amp;Smiles from Turkish Airlines’ Chief Commercial Officer Ahmet Olmuştur. The carrier has been the title sponsor of the Turkish Airlines EuroLeague, a top tier tournament, since 2010.

Turkish Basketball

Thousands of Nepali students dreaming of an American education have been forced to look elsewhere as the Trump administration’s visa restrictions make their future uncertain.
The US was long considered a top destination for higher studies, making Nepal the 10th biggest country of origin for international students in America.&nbsp;
However, that number has seen a significant decline with the total for Nepali students now at 16,482. Some 8,000 Nepali students obtained no-objection certificates to study in the US from the Ministry of Education in the past year.&nbsp;
India, Australia, Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom and Japan are the other popular destinations for Nepali students. There are no clear numbers for Nepalis going to India, but a slight decline was noted this year after the deaths of two female students.
The US State Department has issued a circular to its embassies not to issue new visas to applicants until further notice. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the directive stated that the department planned to expand the screening of applicants' social media.&nbsp;
While new applicants are barred including those applying for visitor visas, students with scheduled interviews are allowed to proceed.
“Many of our students are affected by the new restrictions, but those who had applied for student visas earlier have got interview dates,” one Kathmandu-based college counsellor told us.
Meanwhile, even foreign students with spotless records already in the US have not been spared, as visa scrutiny intensifies under the new policy. In a move that underscores the growing sense of insecurity, many US colleges advised international students to carry their passports and documents at all times, even when traveling locally.
“Me and my friends did not go home this summer because we were not sure we would be allowed back, so we just went to Niagara Falls,” said a Nepali undergrad in Ohio, who like many interviewed for this report did not want her name used for fear of repercussion.
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Nepali students have adopted a cautious stance, with many choosing not to return home during summer vacation due to fear of visa revocations as well as travel bans. Meanwhile, over 7,000 Nepalis with Temporary Protected Status (TPS) will have to come back to Nepal by 5 August or face deportation. Thirty-seven were flown back to Kathmandu on Omni Air last week.
“The US is one of the most sought-after destinations for higher education, and the ban will definitely impact bright students,” says Narottam Aryal of the King’s College in Kathmandu.
Indeed, Nepali undergraduates admitted into Ivy League colleges for the 2025 academic year have been asked to look for alternatives. The entire Fulbright Foreign Scholarships Board resigned on Wednesday citing interference from the Trump administration on the selection of this year’s cohort. Some Nepali students already on Fulbright scholarships have noted disruptions, delays and even cancellation of stipends.&nbsp;
The student visa restrictions were initially just for foreign students admitted to Harvard University, but it was later extended to all Chinese students and now to all students. Universities like Columbia which actively recruit foreign students, face sharp enrolment declines, threatening their financial stability and diversity.
An Indian female PhD candidate at Columbia University had her visa revoked by the US State Department, and said she was targeted on the basis of her social media posts on Israeli military attacks in Gaza. Social media vetting of political activism has raised concerns about privacy and freedom of expression in a country where such rights were a given.
Many students have been informed via email that their visas have been revoked for getting speeding or parking tickets, but even others with no criminal record have been affected. The fear of deportation looms large amongst international students, including those from Nepal.&nbsp;
For most Nepalis who migrate to the US for education, the journey is a high-stakes investment. They come largely from middle-class families, often rely on a patchwork of scholarships, work-study programs, loans, or even the sale of family assets to afford fees.
Most Nepali students pursue STEM subjects which offer extended Optional Practical Training (OPT) periods that help fund their education. But with the US backsliding on education and humanitarian matters, countries like the UK and Canada are becoming more attractive despite their own recent stricter controls on student visas.&nbsp;
The UK universities saw a 63% rise in Nepali students’ admissions in 2024. Japan is another popular destination with 64,816 Nepali students enrolled as of 2024.
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Already, China, Hong Kong and Malaysia are poised to benefit from the increased scrutiny of US student visas. Several Hong Kong universities are offering unconditional admission to affected students, while Malaysian institutions are targeting previously US-bound Asian students. China and India have 330,000 and 280,000 students respectively in America, but the numbers for China have seen a sharp drop in the past year.
Elsewhere, branch campuses of American institutions such as NYU in Abu Dhabi, Georgetown in Dubai and Northwestern in Doha are getting more admission applications, and universities in the Gulf region are expanding infrastructure to accommodate those who would otherwise have gone to the US.&nbsp;
Even educational institutions in Nepal are hopeful that the US visa restrictions can be an opportunity to at least keep Nepali undergrads in Nepal, and also attract foreign students from the region.&nbsp;
“Many students might choose to complete their undergraduate degree here in Nepal and then move abroad for their Master’s degree later,” says Aryal of King’s College. “There was a need for quality higher education in Nepal anyway in terms of innovation and opportunities, so this could be the time to reduce our dependence on other countries.”
Nepal’s strategic position between India and China makes it sensitive to US policy shifts. India, a key ally, is also under US scrutiny for potential student travel restrictions. Chinese universities are already offering more scholarships to Nepali talent to capitalise on the US retreat.
American universities have challenged student visa restrictions in the courts. A federal court in Boston revoked the blanket ban on Harvard, and the State Department has ordered the resumption of processing student and exchange visitor visas.&nbsp;
Some are still hoping that President Trump will backtrack on the student visa restrictions, just like he has done with many of his more drastic executive orders.
Even so, the visa see-saw and longer-term uncertainties about living in the United States and its education system means students across the world are making alternative plans.
Says Aryal: “Policies of foreign countries change according to their needs, so excessive dependence was never a good idea. We should work to create different opportunities and choices of higher education within Nepal, so students are retained.” &nbsp;

America no longer prime destination for Nepali students

While Nepal was hosting the Sagarmatha Sambaad international climate conference in Kathmandu this month, on Mt Everest it was pretty much business as usual.&nbsp; The signs of climate breakdown are all there: a river now runs through Base Camp in summer, the Khumbu Icefall is more unstable, and there are more &nbsp;frequent avalanches. When expeditions arrived in March, the mountains were bare: it had not snowed since September, but then blizzards dumped unseasonal snow in May. And despite climate worries, such is the pull of Himalayan mountaineering that the Everest Industry showed no signs of slowdown. More than 600 international climbers and their Nepali guides had made it to the summit of the world’s highest mountain. At one point there were an estimated 2,000 people in the tent city on the Khumbu Glacier. All the ropes and ladders on the Icefall came down on Thursday, marking the official end of the spring climbing season, and just in time to avoid a monsoon cyclone approaching from the Bay of Bengal. It has been an action-packed season. One factor could be that Everest fees will go up from September: each foreign climber needs to pay a $15,000 royalty, up from the present $11,000. The cost for a Nepali climber on the South Col route will also go up: from Rs75,000 to Rs150,000.&nbsp; The fee to climb Everest in autumn is $7,500 (up from $5,500), but most climbers still prefer spring. Winter permit fee (December-February) is only $3,750 per person and the mountain is now also open for monsoon (June-August) climbs, when the fee is ever lower at $2,750. The revised rule also makes it mandatory for every two climbers on an 8,000m peak to hire one Nepali mountain guide.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025053004050_67f856fe52714e4bdcf21ae7d45c6f18c82117b9d0a5f73ed1efa04c96de1046.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025053004050_67f856fe52714e4bdcf21ae7d45c6f18c82117b9d0a5f73ed1efa04c96de1046" data-rendition-name="original" width="931" height="732" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest Industry graph 1"> </figure>  In addition, climbers also have to pay for porters and guides, equipment, Base Camp costs, Ice Fall and fixed rope team fees, so climbing Everest does not come cheap. But such is the draw of climbing the world’s highest peak that some say the increased fees will not diminish the crowds next year. The government has tried to spread expeditions out to other seasons and other 8,000ers, but with not much success. Earlier this year, Nepal unilaterally increased the number of 8,000m peaks to 14 by adding six more sub-summits to broaden the choice for climbers. Added were: Yalung Kang (8,505m), Yalung Kang West (8,077m) &nbsp;Kangchenjunga Central (8,473m), Kangchenjunga South (8,476m), Lhotse Middle (8,410m) and Lhotse Shar (8,400m).&nbsp; The announcement could go against the accepted topographic criteria that a stand alone peak has to be at least 300m higher than an adjoining prominence, and at more than 3km isolation from it. The UIAA (Union Internationale des Associations d'Alpinisme) still recognises only 14 mountains as eight-thousanders, and only eight of those are in Nepal, or on the border with China. Nepal’s revised mountaineering regulations also increased the insurance coverage of high-altitude workers to protect porters and high altitude guides who usually take more risks on the mountains. Rescue teams and clean-up campaigners to collect trash and remove bodies of dead climbers up to Camp IV of Mt Everest do not need permits.&nbsp; The Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee is now using drones to fly down trash in 20kg sacks. Each climber is also required to bring down at least 6kg of waste and not just their own, but this rule is erratically enforced. With five fatalities on Everest and Lhotse, Spring 2025 had a historically low death toll. Another five climbers died on Annapurna, Kangchenjunga and Makalu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025053004050_38681de22f0fefb6faa12b01755566d09c5064d0ff84e12ccc7b5d68ea9ba38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025053004050_38681de22f0fefb6faa12b01755566d09c5064d0ff84e12ccc7b5d68ea9ba38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="665" height="740" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest industry graph 2"> </figure>  Journalist Ben Ayers who ran the Everest Live social media channel from Everest Base Camp with daily updates credited the low death rate to dramatic rescues of climbers from the ‘Death Zone’ by their Nepali guides and longline helievacs — the visuals all uploaded on YouTube.&nbsp; “Ironically, this perception of safety is bringing more and more inexperienced climbers to the mountain, and they need more rescues,” Ayers said in one of his dispatches.&nbsp; American expedition chronicler and summiteer Alan Arnette suspects there is a lot of under-reporting given that the jet stream and storms were lashing Everest even till late in the season. He told us: “I heard a lot about frostbite and rescues that were not made public. It’s become practically impossible to cover the details on Everest. All the teams report nice news, and they don’t talk about bad stuff to avoid hurting businesses.” Although trash on Nepal’s mountains makes headlines, what does not receive as much attention is the climate impact of so many expeditions. The Sagarmatha Sambaad conference sidestepped this issue, which is ironic given that the impact of climate breakdown is most evident on Himalayan peaks and their glaciers.&nbsp; <h2>Need for Speed</h2> The big stories this year have been about speed-running from their home cities to the top of Everest. Ukrainian entrepreneur Andrew Ushakov flew out of JFK on 15 May at 10:15AM Nepal time, and was on the summit 3 days, 23 hours, and 7 minutes later on 19 May at 9:22AM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250601080640_1c5cc6fc991307861768f07037ed9d30930fb20f35dbb57dc31c9a92a9e1a885.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250601080640_1c5cc6fc991307861768f07037ed9d30930fb20f35dbb57dc31c9a92a9e1a885" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="1800" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest Industry"> <figcaption>Andrew Ushakov at the summt. Photo: ELITE EXPED</figcaption> </figure>  “I could never find the time for the traditional 40-50 days of acclimatisation,” Ushakov explained matter-of-factly. His ‘Everest Sea-to-Summit’ climb was possible because he spent 400 hours in hypoxic sleep tents over the past four years in New York. However, Ushakov did use ropes already fixed, hired four Nepali guides, helicoptered to Base Camp, and used much more oxygen than an average climber. And after the climb, Ushakov was arrested at Kathmandu airport for being in possession of $20,000 of undeclared cash and spent a night in jail and fined $60,000.&nbsp; The other speedsters were Garth Miller, Alastair Cairns, Anthony Stazicker, and Kev Godlington, all former British Army commandos. They left London and summited five days later on 21 May, and flew right back. They also used hypoxic tents to simulate the thin air high on Everest.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250601080644_90c8dd5cc07b4b43f2989b1dc0c0650ab80f10ebb06680c25a6909c519957bd8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250601080644_90c8dd5cc07b4b43f2989b1dc0c0650ab80f10ebb06680c25a6909c519957bd8" data-rendition-name="original" width="810" height="668" loading="lazy" alt="The Everest Industry "> <figcaption>All four members of the Furtenbach team at the summit. Photo: Sandro Gromen-Hayes</figcaption> </figure>  But more controversial was their use of xenon gas therapy in a German hospital to ramp up the production of oxygen-carrying haemoglobins in their blood. Xenon is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency for being performance enhancing in sports. Expedition leader Lukas Furtenbach said this rule does not apply to mountaineering, as it is not a regulated sport like swimming. Nepal has no rules about xenon, but the Department of Tourism said it was launching an ‘investigation’ to decide on future policy since it is difficult to ban xenon, but allow oxygen. The controversy has also divided the mountaineering community, with some climbers saying they just want to maximise their chances of survival. Spending less time on the mountain could make climbing safer by reducing avalanche risk. It would also mean less trash on the mountains, but it would reduce the income of Nepal’s expedition industry. It is also unclear how much of the success was due to xenon therapy and whether the ex-special forces were already in good physical shape.&nbsp; The need for speed hides the fact that climbing in the Himalaya is dangerous business, and climbers cannot sprint to the top just by huffing xenon. But ultra-fast climbs could be charged more, and the revenue generated can be used to establish state-of-the-art rescue operations, and increase pay and insurance for guides. Two other speed chasers this season were Swiss-Ecuadorian Karl Egloff and American Tyler Andrews, both on Everest without oxygen. Andrews choppered to Base Camp to catch a weather window, but turned back from 8,500m due to high winds. Heavy snow and wind also forced Egloff to descend from 7,000m. Slow and steady climbers like Anja Blacha from Germany did make it to the summit without oxygen, while Kami Rita Sherpa broke his own record with his 31st Everest summit as he led a 26-strong Indian Army group. There were 468 permits issued for foreign climbers from 48 expeditions to Everest this spring. Nepal’s other eight-thousanders together had only 17 expeditions. Nepal has more than 1,000 peaks above 6,000m, and has opened only 476 of them for climbing.&nbsp;

The Everest Industry

While Nepal marked <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mt-everest-pvt-ltd">Mt Everest</a> Day on 29 May, on the other side of the planet in the US state of Colorado dozens of Nepalis who have climbed the world’s highest peak multiple times were busy working as chefs and Uber drivers. Among them is Nima Doma Sherpa, who climbed Mt Everest in 2019 after her husband Tshering Wangchu was among 16 crushed by an avalanche on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu">the Khumbu Icefall</a> five years earlier. A large serac broke off the West Shoulder of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-everest-industry">Mt Everest </a>and fell directly on a group of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/more-porters-sick-on-everest-trail">porters and guides</a> making their way up the Icefall at 5,800m. Their bodies were flown by helicopter to Khumjung where Tshering Wangchu was born. He was excited about climbing Mt Everest for the first time.&nbsp; In Khumjung, Nima Doma felt like her own life had also ended. This was the kind of news Sherpa wives, mothers and sisters dreaded every <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-climbing-season-2025-s4abrxny">mountaineering season</a>. She stayed home for more than two years grieving, but ultimately gathered up all her emotional strength to take care of her 6-year-old son and 3-year-old daughter. Nima had grown up in Khumjung hearing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/stories-of-nepal-s-summiteers">tales of adventure on the mountains </a>from their father, Ang Chubi Sherpa who had climbed Everest in 1993. He used to bring her and her sisters and brother European chocolates after every expedition, and used to tell them that the chocolate bars grew on the mountains. “It was only after we got older did we realise that he told us that chocolates grew in the mountains so we would not worry about him putting himself in harm's way,” Nima Doma recalled with a faraway look at her home in Boulder this week. Nima went to the school that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/commemorating-edmund-hillary-in-nepal,4145">Edmund Hillary</a> opened in Khumjung till Grade 8, and then dropped out to help in the kitchen and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">tend yaks</a>. She was married off to Tshering Wangchu, who was also a high altitude guide. When Tshering went on expeditions, Nima also started working as a porter from Namche to Base Camp. It was perhaps her father’s tales of mountains of chocolates that had always attracted her to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/knowing-our-mountains-43v4iyvo">the peaks</a>. After her husband was killed ten years ago this month, being a widow with children was not easy for Nima Doma. But she was not alone: there were at least 200 single mothers in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/khumbu-since-1950-jaww4qn0">the Khumbu</a>, and 20 of them just in Khumjung whose husbands had been killed in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/tragic-start-to-himalayan-spring-nepal,3695">mountaineering accidents</a>. Some were not even 20 years old, and had children growing up without fathers. But there were also women in the 50s whose husbands had been killed in the 1980s. Nima found sponsors for her children’s education, and moved to Kathmandu. In the capital, Sherpa widows used to meet to help each other. Some of them had joined the Nepal Mountaineering Association (NMA) training for rock and ice climbing. “I decided that it was no use sitting home and crying anymore, after meeting other single mothers I felt less alone,” remembers Nima, who joined the Juniper Foundation and enrolled in an NMA training camp in Manang. There she climbed Chulu East (6,584m) and met Furadiki Sherpa, whose rope-fixing husband had also been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/on-mt-everest-s-70th-records-and-fatalities">killed on Everest</a> in 2013. They set themselves the goal of climbing Everest one day, and started a fund-raising drive.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250530090544_621be0724b9182c8e3594b2c562a71ec32ac01d985a71d0cf31646de9d51e15a.png" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250530090544_621be0724b9182c8e3594b2c562a71ec32ac01d985a71d0cf31646de9d51e15a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2678" height="1274" loading="lazy" alt="Everest summiteers find new life in the US"> </figure>  “We decided we had to overcome society’s stigma of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/widows-personal-happiness-comes-last-in-face-of-social-financial-hardships,1855">widowhood</a> and prove that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/remembering-junko-tabei">women could also climb mountains</a>,” Nima said, adding that she was inspired by Nepal’s first woman Everest summiteer Pasang Lhamu Sherpa, who died during her descent in 1993. Nima Doma and Furdiki climbed the technically-difficult Ama Dablam (6,812m) and then arrived at Everest Base Camp in April 2019 as part of their Two Widows Expedition with the motto, ‘So Can We’. While climbing up the Icefall Nima passed the spot where her husband had been killed. It was a jumble of constantly-shifting ice blocks bigger than houses. She closed her eyes and said a prayer. “I remember thinking, this is so difficult and dangerous. This is what my husband had to do to support our family,” Nima Doma said. “I was determined to fulfil my husband’s dream of climbing Chomolungma, and to prove to ourselves that we two women could do it.” It was 23 May 2019 when <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/world/two-sherpa-widows-scale-everest-and-smash-stigma-idUSKCN1SU0MV/" target="_blank">Nima and Furdiki stepped on the summit</a> and looked over into Tibet, and down at Tengboche Monastery to the south.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250530090544_6b822582b5d88ba5e972db084f184690b40653c6efd9901b2dd082ffba2a263b.png" data-media-id="editor_16" data-image-id="20250530090544_6b822582b5d88ba5e972db084f184690b40653c6efd9901b2dd082ffba2a263b" data-rendition-name="original" width="2700" height="1522" loading="lazy" alt="Everest summiteers find new life in the US"> </figure>  Nima Doma hugged Furdiki, took off her mask and wept. But for the first time in five years, it was not from grief but relief — relief for being free of all the sadness and sacrifices and for fulfilling her husband’s dream. They had found <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/life-after-death">life after death</a>. “I felt this immense joy to be on top of the world, it was indescribable,” Nima Doma said, “I have wept only twice in my life. Once when my husband died, and once there on top of Everest.” The tears had frozen on Nima Doma’s cheeks, as she and Furdiki headed back down the mountain.

seismology