<img width="500" height="750" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372043d9c7e80680e0b284fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410110/6372043f9c7e80680e0b2850jpeg.jpg" alt="">Photos: BIKRAM RAI/NEPALI TIMESEarthquakes are inevitable in Nepal. It is not a question of ‘if’, but ‘when’. And ‘when’ was 2:28PM on 15 January 1934. It was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">11:56AM on 25 April, 2015</a>. Another memorable and tragic date in future is certain.But Nepalis have short memories. As long as aftershocks shook us, we were reminded about the horrors. But seven years after 2015, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tall-order/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the fear has evaporated</a>.This is not panic-mongering, or crying wolf. It is reality: every part of the central Himalaya is hit by a megaquake above 8 magnitude every 500 years or so, and a moderate intensity quake every 100 years.The 2015 disaster was not a Big One, 1934 was. Nonetheless, both released some of the built-up tectonic tension underneath us. What worries Himalayan seismologists is that there has been no <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">major earthquake in western Nepal</a> in the last 500 years. The rock strata beneath are stretched to breaking point.Experts tell us that if an 8M earthquake strikes in this seismic gap between Pokhara and Dadeldhura, it will also rock Kathmandu and be even more damaging than 2015.That <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/rebuilding-five-years-after-2015-quake/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">7.8M earthquake seven years ago</a> was comparable to the 7.7M quake in Gujarat in 2001, and the 7.6M temblor in 2005 in Kashmir. In 2015, Nepal saw greater physical damage, but India and Pakistan had much higher casualties. One reason was that we were lucky 25 April 2015 was a Saturday, and students were not in classrooms.To mark National Earthquake Safety Day on 15 January, we recap the past seven years. There is some good news: over 80% of reconstruction is complete. Nepal’s recovery has been smoother than other developing countries hit by mega disasters.  Despite initial delays due to political muddles and the Blockade, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reconstruction in most sectors</a> picked up in 2016. Today, only health facilities and heritage sites are lagging at about 65% completion. Most rebuilt homes follow national seismic resistance guidelines because masons were trained, and there was monitoring before grants were released in installments.However, reconstruction in Kathmandu and other towns have not even passed the 60% mark, and could take another five years. The Rs300,000 reconstruction grant was just not enough for families to rebuild urban homes. More worrisome is that whatever has been rebuilt in Kathmandu Valley mostly flout building codes and permits.The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/building-back-unsafe,3674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gongabu neighbourhood saw 160 deaths</a> in 2015, most of them were crushed under illegally built concrete structures. Most of those high rises have been rebuilt using the same faulty techniques.Except in Gongabu, most concrete structures survived the 2015 quake in Kathmandu. This has <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/false-sense-of-security-about-strength-of-reinforced-concrete-structures,2240" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforced public misconception</a> that cement houses, regardless of how they are built, are stronger than brick and mortar ones.However, seismologists say that if the tremors in 2015 were only a few seconds longer and the magnitude slightly higher, many of Kathmandu’s concrete buildings would have also collapsed. They are unlikely to be spared in the next big one.Seven years after the earthquake, it is back to business as usual. In fact, Kathmandu is now more dangerous because it is even more densely packed, and there are more multi-storey blocks. Clearly, awareness about earthquakes has not translated into safer construction — we have forgotten that earthquakes do not kill people, poorly built structures do.Surya Narayan Shrestha at the National Society for Earthquake Technology – Nepal (NSET) tells us that building codes need to be strictly enforced with stringent monitoring mechanisms. Municipalities must be stricter with building permits.Next, masons and concrete moulding workers need skills upgrading in earthquake resistant building technology. Security personnel now need <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">training in search and rescue</a> under collapsed concrete structures.Shrestha says schools, hospitals and public buildings need to be retrofitted urgently. Many schools NSET had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparedness-saves-lives,2264" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">helped retrofit</a> withstood the 2015 earthquake, and this model needs to be replicated across western Nepal.Nepal’s towns are losing open spaces, which are vital as shelters in the aftermath of future earthquakes. Kathmandu must <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-artists-butterfly-effect/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">protect remaining open spaces</a>, and these efforts need to be scaled up not just for earthquake safety but also to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mini-forests-to-make-kathmandu-more-liveable/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">restore the city’s lungs</a>.   Preparedness will mean life or death for all Nepalis, not just for those in the seismic gap in the western part of the country. This should be the main message on the National Earthquake Safety Day. Earthquakes are beyond our control, but we can <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">make ourselves safer</a> when they happen.Sonia Awale

Sonia Awale

original

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

Lessons still not learnt

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2659c7e80680e08f90ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="720"/><figcaption>The brand new Patan School building that is nearing completion with support from the Japanese aid agency. A raft concrete foundation makes it withstand a magnitude 8 earthquake. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>It took 40 seconds for the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">25 April 2015 earthquake</a> to seriously <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">damage or demolish some 50,000 classrooms</a> across central Nepal. If the earthquake had not struck on a Saturday, the death toll would have been unimaginable.More than five years after a disaster that could have had a much more catastrophic outcome, and with most of the schools now rebuilt, Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/be-prepared/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">does not seem to have learnt its lesson</a>. The Covid-19 crisis has forced schools into hibernation, schools in other parts of Nepal are not prepared, and the retrofitting of classrooms has languished.“Given the scale of the 2015 earthquake, our reconstruction process has been quite satisfactory but we are not prepared enough for future mega-quakes,” says Surya Narayan Shrestha, executive director of the National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET) Nepal.Indeed, National Earthquake Safety Day on 15 January which commemorates the 8.3 magnitude 1934 earthquake that devastated Kathmandu, is the right time to assess our <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness for future disasters</a>.“<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Western Nepal hasn’t had a major earthquake</a> in a long time and a lot of stress has accumulated,” warns Shrestha. “But no part of the country will be spared, and we are not prepared for it – especially public buildings such as schools and hospitals.”Nepali Times surveyed some of the rebuilt schools in and around Kathmandu, and in general the new structures appear to be of seismic resistant design. However, because there have been no classes for nearly a year, there have been no preparedness drills.At <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/back-to-school-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tripadma High School</a> in Patan, a retrofitted block withstood the tremors in 2015, and  served as a shelter for the community for more than a month. However, an older building was heavily damaged and got a red sticker in the post-quake assessment.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2689c7e80680e08f90bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd26c9c7e80680e08f90cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4032" height="3024">(Left to right) Two eight room buildings inside Tripadma School in Patan built after the 2015 earthquakes to acommodate the growing number of students. A retrofitted building next to it, survived the disaster and served as a shelter for the community in its aftermath. Photos: SONIA AWALEAcross town, the Padmodaya High School in Putali Sadak would have had 1,000 students in the classrooms if the 2015 quake had struck on a regular day. The building was destroyed. A newly built, sturdier structure next to it survived and was a temporary home for many in the aftermath of the disaster.According to the Central Level Project Implementation Unit (CLPIU) under the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA), a total of 7,923 schools and 49,681 classes were damaged in the earthquakes.“After the earthquake, we conducted classes in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/keeping-the-children-in-safe-classrooms,3057" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">temporary learning centres</a> for two years. It was unbearably hot under zinc sheets during summer. The roof leaked when it rained,” recalls Principal Narayan Prasad Gautam of Padmodaya School. “Things have got better with the new building. The engineer has assured me it can stand a 9M quake.”Tripadma and Padmodaya were both rebuilt with support from CLPIU and are two of the 7,553 schools the Nepal Reconstruction Authority (NRA) targeted for rebuilding post 2015 earthquakes. Five years since the earthquake, 6,085 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepals-schools/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">school buildings have been reconstructed</a> and another 1,468 are still under construction.“We have reconstructed some 80% of the schools and the rest will be completed by June,” says Gopal Prasad Aryal of NRA. The government entity has also been working on rebuilding 44 universities and colleges with financial support from India. “We now have strong infrastructure with water, toilets and ramps. Our hope is that it aids the quality of education.”This year’s National Earthquake Safety Day will have to also work on regular disaster preparedness drills, and reminders on earthquake safety. And as memories of the 2015 earthquake fade, many are becoming complacent with construction that flout the building code. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">western half of the country</a> has little or no information about earthquake safety.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F2eKkUmvNALike most houses rebuilt after the 2015 earthquakes, schools from Kavre to Gorkha now use <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforced concrete structures</a>. This means safety drills will have to be adjusted, and search and rescue procedures completely revamped to take into account the new construction material.The lack of trained professionals and training in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">search, locate and rescue in collapsed concrete structures</a> will be wholly different than in 2015, when most of the collapsed buildings were of lighter timber, brick and mud mortar construction.In 2015, crucial hours in rescue operations were lost because of the lack of concrete cutters, and with them, lives. Some children who had already escaped swaying buildings rushed indoors to perform duck-cover-hold procedures taught at schools when the structures collapsed on them.“Despite having earthquake resistant structures we have drills at least once a month in school so that students have complete knowledge regarding earthquake safety,” says Tashi Tenzing Norgay of Nepal Green Tara Foundation which rebuilt two <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/rebuild-school-after-earthquake,3458" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">schools in Nuwakot</a> in 2014. When the earthquake hit central Nepal in 2015, those two schools were among the few still standing.After the earthquake, the foundation has built three more schools. “Infrastructure is important but so is earthquake education,” says Norgay. But the importance of drills have been forgotten in most schools, especially as schooling scenarios changed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.With schools closed for the past 10 months because of the Covid-19 pandemic, students have had no <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17851#.YAExZ-gzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">earthquake preparedness training</a>. But as schools prepare to open now, the focus will largely be on infrastructure that ensures social distancing.Local governments are working with the Health ministry and UNICEF to launch the Learning Continuity Campaign this week. The campaign engages parents, teachers and local government, providing guidance on safe reopening of schools and alternative modes of instruction like home-schooling, low-tech solutions like telephone/SMS for learning, radio programs on parenting and specific focus on marginalised children to prevent dropout, have been highlighted.The newly-built infrastructure of the schools has been a draw for some parents, thus upping the number of enrollment to community schools at a time when Covid-19 crisis has weakened economic status.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd26f9c7e80680e08f90djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Many public schools have noted a rise in admission of students from private schools.Patan School with its ghantaghar like clock tower (pictured above) stands out in the midst of the high rises, and is a model for earthquake safe school reconstruction.Funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), the Rs 320 million building has a concrete foundation raft designed to withstand magnitude 8 shaking. The school has solar and rainwater harvesting backup, classes are spacious, and labs well-equipped.Upgrading in infrastructure, however, does not always guarantee an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-quantity-nepals-education-needs-quality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">improved standard of instruction</a>. Patan School may have a fancy new building, but is grappling with enough teachers and students to fill the new classrooms, as well as a maintenance budget from the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/ministry-of-education-gets-an-f/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Education Ministry</a>.“There are now bigger, better school buildings but it won’t make a difference to the quality of education at this rate,” says Rajendra Dahal, editor of Shishyak monthly. “The 2015 earthquake and this pandemic could have been an opportunity to upgrade both hardware and software of our education system, but the teaching standards have instead, downgraded.”Indeed, the only thing going for most post-earthquake government schools is that they will be safer during a future earthquake. Otherwise it is the same curricula, under-motivated and under-paid teachers, lack of facilities and budgets.

674x448

610x380

1250x600

1084x550

Lessons not learned from 2015

<figure><img width="1607" height="1262" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2589c7e80680e08f906jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Earthquake Safety Day 2004 coverage. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #178 </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s National Earthquake Safety Day commemorates 15 January 1934, the day when a magnitude 8.3 quake epicentred in Okhaldhunga, killed at least 17,000 people. It is known as the ‘Bihar Earthquake’ because Nepal was closed to the outside world then, and the British had more information on the damage and casualties in northern India.That sunny winter afternoon, temples and homes in Kathmandu crumbled in clouds of brown dust. Geysers of water shot out of fields, as the soil was squeezed like a sponge. In the royal palace, two of King Tribhuvan’s daughters were killed. Of Kathmandu Valley’s total population of 200,000, more than eight thousand died that day. Survivors, now in their 90s, have traumatic childhood memories of death, destruction and fear.Today, Kathmandu’s population is 3 million. Buildings are densely-packed and most are multi-storey concrete structures. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kathmandu ranks #1</a> on the list of Top Ten cities in the world most vulnerable to a catastrophic earthquake. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha Raihttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F2eKkUmvNAThe magnitude 7.8 and 7.3 quakes in 2015 were warnings for Nepal to be prepared. Nearly 9,000 people were killed in 14 districts in and around Kathmandu, but the casualties could have been much higher if the intensity was a little higher, and the shaking had lasted a few seconds more. And, as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">our report this week on school reconstruction</a> shows, the number of children who would have been killed had the quake not struck on Saturday at noon, is so high as to be unthinkable. That danger is not over. Seismic resistant classrooms and school retrofitting is one of the most urgent investments that Nepal can make. <figure><img width="1491" height="1182" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd25c9c7e80680e08f907jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Earthquake Safety Day 2011 coverage. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #536</figcaption></figure>The good news, as we report, is that most schools that were damaged in 2015 have been built back stronger. The attention of school administrators should now be on Covid-19 safety when classes resume, as well as upgrading the curriculum. But we also need to move beyond central Nepal that was impacted by the 2015 quakes to make classrooms safer in other parts of the country. This is most urgent in western Nepal, which Himalayan seismologists say, has not seen a mega quake for nearly 700 years, and one is long overdue.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/quake-was-a-learning-experience-for-nepals-schools/">Quake was a learning experience for Nepal’s schools</a>, Prakriti Kandel <figure><img width="1535" height="1169" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd25f9c7e80680e08f908jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Earthquake Safety Day 2013 coverage. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #638</figcaption></figure> To be sure, a 8.5 magnitude earthquake epicentred in western Nepal will be a regional catastrophe, affecting the densely-populated north Indian plains, and scientists say its impact on Kathmandu could actually be worse than the 2015 disaster. The most important lesson we must learn on National Earthquake Safety Day from the 40 seconds of shaking at 11:56am on 26 April 2015 is that we have to be better prepared — strengthening existing schools, hospitals and public buildings, enforce a building code on new ones, follow zoning laws, pre-position digging equipment and supplies, conduct drills for search, rescue, and relief. This is not panic-mongering, it is a question of life or death.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale <figure><img width="1830" height="1268" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111128/636cd2629c7e80680e08f909jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> Nepali Times editorial on Earthquake Safety Day, three months before the 2015 earthquake. Photo: NEPALI TIMES #740</figcaption></figure> Every Earthquake Safety Day over the past two decades, this newspaper has carried the same message: let’s be prepared. Ironically, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/earthquakes-dont-kill-people-weak-houses-and-bad-planning-do,1930" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">an editorial three months before the 2015 earthquake struck</a> was titled ‘Preparing to be prepared’.  The message bears repeating: the next big earthquake in Nepal is not a question of if, but when.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mind the gap</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/">Disastrous management in Nepal</a>, Sewa Bhattarai

Be prepared

<figure><img width="1140" height="550" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23129c7e80680e0417c7jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: Nature Communications</figcaption></figure>What makes Nepal scenic is also what makes it seismic. The country is located in one of the most vulnerable regions of the world for earthquakes, and our ancestors were used to them happening regularly. They knew that as they rebuilt after one earthquake, they had to prepare for the next one. A scientific paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07874-8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nature Communications </a>this month gives us a sobering reminder of this danger. Even as we catch up with reconstruction and rehabilitation after 2015, we have to scale up to the whole country our preparedness for the Next Big One.Himalayan earthquakes fall into two main types. There are moderate intensity quakes like the ones in 2015 and 2008 which are accompanied by a lot of shaking, but do not deform the surface. Then there are gigantic upheavals like the 8.3 magnitude 1934 quake epicentred in eastern Nepal which destroyed much of Kathmandu, and the 8.7 magnitude Assam earthquake in 1950, described as the greatest earthquake to hit the Himalaya in recorded history. Megaquakes like these uplift the surface and are what formed the Himalaya.Seismologists studying data from the 2015 event have concluded that the Gorkha Earthquake ruptured eastwards, and stopped underground somewhere south of Kathmandu Valley, and instead of releasing the stores stress, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/01/earthquakes-priming-himalaya-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased tectonic tension</a> underneath Central Nepal. They say moderate quakes like 2015 can actually trigger future megaquakes as the rock layers release accumulated stress along faults.These urgent warnings came as Nepal marked the anniversary of the 1934 megaquake last week as National Earthquake Safety Day.Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Roger Bilham</a> says the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. In fact, it is still collecting energy beneath us and it could be let off in the near future just as the 1833 earthquake in Kathmandu was followed by another one 30 years later. The second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Added to the unfinished business of 2015, there is also the danger posed by the seismic gap in western Nepal which has not seen a megaquake since 1505. The western half of the country was not affected by 2015, and is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness there about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquake safety</a>.The focus on rebuilding in 14 districts of central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake should not stop us from getting western Nepal prepared for the Big One. Indeed, the whole of Nepal, northern India and the region should brace itself because a megaquake of 8.5 magnitude in western Nepal would cause widespread death and devastation across northern South Asia, which is the world’s most densely-populated region. Seismologists warn it could possibly be the worst disaster in human history in terms of loss of life.Response to the 2015 earthquake should now encompass the whole country, schools need to be retrofitted, hospitals and public buildings reinforced, and disaster management plans be put into place. But as with everything else in Nepal, we tend to focus on a disaster that has already occurred than on the one that has not struck yet. The answer may lie in provincial and local governments enforcing building codes and drawing up preparedness plans, a job for which the national government has so far been deficient. The 2015 earthquakes were an important <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.WtRzzNRua71" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warning</a> for us to be better prepared for the really big one. Despite the tragic loss of 8,900 lives, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/kunda-dixit-when-earthquake-struck-nepal,2214" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal got off relatively lightly</a> three years ago for a quake of that magnitude. It struck on a Saturday when schools were closed, the telecommunication network was functioning, highways were open, electricity supply was restored fairly quickly and Kathmandu Airport was not damaged. Next time we <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/big-earthquake-still-coming-nepal,2815" target="_blank" rel="noopener">may not be so lucky</a>. Monks in Tibet noted the exact time of the last big quake in western Nepal at 6AM on 1 June 1505. Estimated at 8.9, that earthquake devastated north India, destroyed Agra and other Moghul cities, may have trigged the Annapurna slope collapse that dammed the Seti River which burst to create the debris field where Pokhara is located today. There is now so much slip deficit beneath western Nepal that a sudden elastic rebound can move the entire half of the country southwards by a shocking 14m. The Gorkha Earthquake three years ago was just a forewarning of an even bigger disaster to come. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Ten years ago in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#435 of Nepali Times</a> for 23-26 January 2009, Prashant Jha in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15598#.XErqP1UzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his column Plain Speaking</a> wrote about the simmering anger in the Tarai two years after the Madhes uprising. Kathmandu's inability to heed this warning led to further violence when the constitution was promulgated in 2015. Excerpt:Two years after the Madhes movement altered Nepali nationalism, the Tarai is in a mess.Anger against Kathmandu was the defining feature of this period. Now, a mix of disillusionment, rage, helplessness and fear prevails. Macro politics is more fragmented than ever, across party and caste lines. And at the micro level violence has become the only tool to resolve political and personal disputes.Kathmandu can appoint a credible minister for Tarai affairs to handle political grievances, local killings, micro disputes, administrative weakness, agreement implementation. Full time, sensitive, and sincere engagement with the plains is the only hope.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/435"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101136/636a23159c7e80680e0417c8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="509" height="816"></a>

AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET

<figure><img width="1400" height="922" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369042d9c7e80680e037d08jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Om Astha Rai</figcaption></figure>One-and-a-half years after being fired for failing to speed up post-earthquake recovery, Sushil Gyewali is back as the CEO of National Reconstruction Authority (NRA) that was set up to oversee reconstruction after the 2015 earthquake.The way <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/no-money-for-helicopters-to-distribute-earthquake-relief,2792" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Gyewali was hired</a>, fired and re-hired shows how reconstruction has been a casualty of intense <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/reconstruction-in-ruins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political rivalry</a> in Nepal. He is the fifth NRA Chief in less than three years, and in that time only one-third of the 600,000 earthquake-destroyed houses have been rebuilt. Only half the schools have been reconstructed.Gyewali was appointed by K P Oli of the UML when he was prime minister in 2016, but labeled “incompetent”and sacked by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal when the Maoist Chair was heading a coalition government with the Nepali Congress.However, after the Maoists-UML merged into the Nepal Communist Party, won last year’s elections, and came to power again, Oli reinstated Gyewali at the NRA.In an interview with Nepali Times this week, Gyewali said the charges about his under-performance were “politically-motivated”. He added: “They needed to criticise me because they wanted to overthrow the government that had appointed me. Earthquake reconstruction has always been held hostage to politics.”However, with his NCP mentors now firmly in power, Gyewali may face fewer obstacles during this tenure. He is now backed by a strong and stable government with a two-third majority in Parliament, and just like the KP Oli government itself, he has no excuses to fail or under-perform this time.The law allows the government to extend the NRA’s tenure by one year, but Gyewali says he is not even looking for an extension. “All earthquake-destroyed private homes will be rebuilt in the remaining two years, or even sooner,” he promised.When he was first appointed as the NRA Chief, Gyewali rued the absence of locally-elected representatives of people. But now, all of Nepal’s 752 local levels have mayors or village heads. He says working with elected mayors and village chairs to accelerate post-earthquake reconstruction will make rebuilding much easier this time.“The NRA will now also have a federal structure,” he said. “We will delegate more power and responsibility of reconstruction to municipalities and village councils. Each local government will have its own reconstruction unit, and the engineers deployed by the NRA will be based there.”Under pressure to expedite reconstruction, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/genuine-earthquake-survivors-missing-from-housing-grant-list%20,3498" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous NRA leadership</a> had given earthquake survivors a short deadline to rebuild as per approved designs. It had warned that those unable to meet the deadline will not be eligible for the rest of the Rs300,000 reconstruction grants. Thousands of families borrowed from local money lenders and cooperatives to meet the deadline. Many also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-homes-on-a-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">built small, one-room houses</a> that were not seismic resistant, just to meet the NRA condition.The NRA has faced criticism for forcing earthquake survivors to build houses that do not meet their living requirements. Gyewali admitted the deadline added stress to earthquake survivors, but he said reconstruction would be too open-ended if there is no cut-off date to use housing grants. But he added: “We will now give a more realistic deadline.”The NRA also faces a funding crisis. Nepal has not received all the money pledged by donors. At the International Conference on Nepal’s Reconstruction on 25 June 2015, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparing-for-June-donor-summit,2300" target="_blank" rel="noopener">donors pledged more than $4.1 billion</a> to rebuild houses, schools, health facilities and other infrastructure. But the actual pledge, excluding non-reconstruction commitments, was just $3.43 billion. Even that money <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/broken-promises-reconstruction,3627" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has not been received in full</a>.As soon as he got back to his old office, Gyewali has been trying to find out how much there is in the kitty, and explore sources to meet the shortfall. Some are skeptical that the NRA will be able to finish reconstruction in the remaining two years, even though it is now headed by a CEO backed by a stable government.They say it was a mistake to copy Pakistan’s model of reconstruction by setting up a separate agency because Nepal’s socio-political landscape is different. Pakistan was ruled by the Army when it was devastated by a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in 2005, and houses were rebuilt swiftly under a general. Also, survivors were given sufficient reconstruction grants and did not have to borrow as they had to in Nepal.Meanwhile, Nepal was in the throes of a polarised debate over the constitution when the earthquake struck on 25 April 2015. It was a foregone conclusion that reconstruction would face political obstacles, yet Nepal invited retired Pakistani Lt Gen Nadeem Ahmad to share his experience and this shaped the structure of the NRA.Asked about this, Gyewali said: “Copying the Pakistan model was probably a mistake. But did anyone propose a better model?”Read also:  '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11906&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lost in reconstruction</a>', Shiva Uprety'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11912&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Class struggle</a>', Prakriti Kandel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-baker-of-barpak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal Pandey

Hired, fired, rehired

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636904049c7e80680e037cf9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="934"/><figcaption>OLD TO NEW: Barpak before the earthquake destroyed most of its buildings, and today with its haphazard modern concrete structures.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636904089c7e80680e037cfajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="934"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>B<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/back-in-barpak-after-eight-months-of-earthquake,2744" target="_blank" rel="noopener">arpak</a> was at the epicentre of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake three years ago, and due to media attention it also became <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/epicenter-barpak-born-again,2998" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the epicentre of reconstruction</a>.Residents mostly have relatives in the British and Indian armies, did not have the cash-crunch faced by survivors elsewhere. The town quickly rebuilt itself.While most displaced families were still <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/genuine-earthquake-survivors-missing-from-housing-grant-list%20,3498" target="_blank" rel="noopener">waiting for their first installment of housing grants</a> from the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA), most residents of Barpak were already living in their new houses.The scenic town in northern Gorkha made famous because it is the hometown of Victoria Cross soldier Gaje Ghale, has now completely recovered from the earthquake. More than 1,200 of the 1,301 houses destroyed have already been rebuilt, homestay tourism is thriving and remittance money is everywhere.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-baker-of-barpak/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The baker of Barpak</a>, Tara Aryal PandeyHowever, Barpak is no more the picturesque ridgetop hamlet with stone buildings and elegant tile roofs. Barpak used to be a living museum of Gurung culture. The charm of the cobble stone streets and a settlement that existed in harmony with its surrounding mountains are a thing of the past.Today, Barpak looks like a clutter of concrete and cement, with architecture that is borrowed from the nondescript boxy construction that characterise Nepal’s highway towns. Every house is of a different size, design and shape.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Epicentre-of-reconstruction,2286" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bir Bahadur Ghale</a> is Barpak’s forward-looking pioneer of rural electrification, but even he is sorry he could not stop the erosion of the town’s heritage. He laments: “Our village has completely lost its original identity. Our children will see the original Barpak only in old pictures.”Read also: '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11912&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Class struggle</a>', Prakriti KandelThe main reason Barpak and other old towns have lost their traditional ambience is because the NRA insisted that families would only be eligible for government grants of Rs300,000 if they rebuilt by following its list of approved designs. But none of the listed blueprints included traditional motifs in the architecture.Just like in any other earthquake affected village, NRA engineers lacked an understanding of local culture and traditional grammar, drawing up generic seismic-resistant house designs.Some Barpak residents rang the alarm bell, warning fellow villagers that blindly following the government-approved house designs would lead to the loss of their unique identity. But no one listened.Read also: '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11917&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fired, hired, rehired</a>', Om Astha RaiIn a bid to rebuild Barpak without losing its heritage but still adopting seismic resistant technology, some local residents led by Bir Bahadur Ghale had proposed a reconstruction masterplan. But it was not approved by the government.Ghale recalls: “Our masterplan was neither rejected nor approved. It was kept in limbo for almost a year, and people could not wait. Barpak looks very colourful now. But it is not the same Barpak.”Jit Bahadur Ghale, another local resident, also tried to persuade neighbours to stick to their original architecture. But no one listened to him. He says: “Barpak lost its identity because outsiders imposed new designs on us.”Besides the compulsion to follow government-approved design, there was also a false realisation that Barpak’s original housing style was vulnerable to future earthquakes since most of the original buildings were flattened by the earthquake, killing 72 people. Many were crushed to death by stones and slates.People in Barpak used to stack up stone slates to roof their houses without using nails or hooks. After the earthquake, they realised that such practice would be a hazard in future earthquakes. And NRA engineers lacked creativity to infuse earthquake-resistant technology with Barpak’s unique architecture.Barpak residents whose relatives served in the British Army or are working in Hong Kong and Kathmandu, therefore, built modern concrete structures. Some, who did not have money, built <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-homes-on-a-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">small and one-roomed homes</a> with the material salvaged from the ruins of their houses, just so they could get the government grant. Such houses do not meet their living requirement, and they are likely to be converted into cattle sheds.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Between-the-lines/epicentre-of-reconstruction-barpak-after-earthquake,493" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Epicenter of reconstruction</a>,  Tering Dolker Gurung<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/epicenter-barpak-born-again,2998" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Barpak born again</a>,  Santa Gaha Magar<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/back-in-barpak-after-eight-months-of-earthquake,2744" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Back in Barpak</a>,  Ayesha Shakya

Lost in reconstruction

<h2>Preparing western Nepal for a future megaquake is now even more urgent than reconstruction in areas hit by the 2015 disaster</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca9e9c7e80680e02f320jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Yubaraj Shrestha</figcaption></figure>Nepalis live in one of the most seismically active zones in the world. Nepal is number one in the list of top ten countries vulnerable to catastrophic earthquakes. But even the 2015 disaster <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">will pale in comparison to a much bigger earthquake</a> which scientists say threatens western Nepal.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368caa19c7e80680e02f321jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="130" height="101">Geologists are hesitant to predict when earthquakes will strike, they will only say it is going to happen one day and that we should be prepared.But Himalayan seismologist <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472">Roger Bilham</a> prefers to tell people to their face that the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221">2015 earthquake was not the Big One</a> which scientists had feared. He says it is still collecting energy that could be let off in future.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-prepared-are-we-for-the-next-big-one/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How prepared are we for the next big one?,</a> Sashi ShresthaBilham and other seismologists say there are two dangers lurking beneath the Himalaya: one is the unfinished business of 2015, and the other is a looming megaquake in western Nepal.Scientists agree that if a slip has already occurred in one section of the Himalaya, another earthquake of the same magnitude is unlikely to hit the same area for about 100 years – unless the energy has not been fully released.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mind the gap</a>, EditorialThe <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2015/05/27/a-month-that-felt-like-a-year/">2015 earthquake of 7.8 magnitude</a> has been compared to a similar intensity quake that hit Kathmandu in 1833. That one also did not completely dissipate its energy, and sure enough another quake hit the Valley in 1866.Bilham says that double  whammy could be repeated. However, the second quake this time could cause more damage because its epicentre may be in faults directly beneath Kathmandu Valley. Fingers crossed that the energy will release itself in a creep, and not a jolt.The second scenario for western Nepal is even scarier. It could be the mother of all earthquakes because there hasn’t been a megaquake in western Nepal since an estimated 8.4 quake struck in 1505.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5VjaSFEf4BUVideo: Robert Butler, University of PortlandBijay Krishna Upadhyay of <a href="http://www.nset.org.np/nset2012/">the National Society for Earthquake Technology</a> (NSET-Nepal) says the western half of the country is at double risk because of the long seismic gap and relatively low awareness about <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal">earthquake safety</a>.After a relatively low intensity 6.8 magnitude earthquake epicentred in Udayapur killed nearly 700 people in Dharan and surrounding areas in 1988, it was easier for the government and organisations like NSET to convince people to build earthquake-resistant houses in eastern Nepal.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/1-3-empty-or-2-3-full/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1/3 empty or 2/3 Full</a>, Nigel Fisher“We now need to shift our attention not just to western Nepal but the entire country while continuing with reconstruction in the earthquake-affected districts,” says Upadhyay.A campaign to spread awareness about earthquake safety had been started in western Nepal after a 6.4 magnitude earthquake killed 180 people in and around Bajhang district in 1980. But the focus shifted to eastern Nepal after the Dharan tragedy.However, in the last three years the focus has once more gone to the 14 districts of Central Nepal hit by the 2015 earthquake. As a result, the western part of the country which scientists consider the most vulnerable is not prepared at all for an earthquake that is sure to hit one day.Ajaya Dixit, author of a recent book on disaster preparedness (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/disasters-in-Nepal-book-review,3965">Nepalma Bipad</a>), says: “Our response to the 2015 earthquake has largely focused on rebuilding damaged houses, and we have not looked at disasters in their entirety to prevent systemic vulnerability from reproducing itself elsewhere.”One government official who has been harping on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/preparedness-saves-lives,2264">retrofitting buildings</a> all over Nepal after the 2015 earthquake is Govind Raj Pokhrel, the former CEO of the National Reconstruction Authority (NRA). He proposed training on reinforced masonry all over the country, including the west, to ease the shortage of skilled bricklayers in the districts hit in 2015.“It could have helped technology transfer. After building houses in the earthquake-affected districts, they could have returned to their own villages in western Nepal and inspired others to build<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/05/26/the-building-blocks-of-reconstruction/"> earthquake-resistant houses</a>,” he explains.But the NRA bureaucracy and donors prefer to focus on a disaster that has already happened instead of one that has not struck yet. Pokhrel himself resigned to contest elections, and his proposal was shelved.One silver lining is that after last year’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/the-election-fever-federal-and-parliamentary-election,3982">local and provincial polls</a>, enforcing building codes are now mandatory in municipalities and villages across the country. Local governments will be the best place to implement this requirement, and some provincial governments have already prioritised disaster preparedness in their first plans and policies.In Province 4, Chief Minister Prithvi Subba Gurung has decided to set up an emergency relief fund, and promises to strictly implement the building code in Pokhara and other towns to prepare his region for future shock.“Nepalis tend to forget a tragedy very quickly, but our provincial government will never forget the lessons learnt from the 2015 earthquake,” Gurung told us.However good plans and policies sound, in Nepal the proof of the pudding is always in the implementation.Kathmandu has an excellent building code, for example, but it has been flagrantly flouted leading to the loss of lives in 2015.Dixit says awareness about disaster preparedness among local governments and the new national Disaster Management Act that focuses on preparedness are encouraging. But, he adds: “Major limitations exist: low institutional capacity, lack of financial and other resources, skill sets and equipment.”<h3>Himalayan seismic gaps</h3>What makes Mt Machapuchre (6990m) such a stunning peak (above) is also what makes it dangerous. Central and western Nepal have not suffered a megaquake for 700 years. Map below shows potential future intensity of earthquakes and slip in metres based on estimate of stored tectonic pressure along the Himalayan arc.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368caa29c7e80680e02f322jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="696"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/preparing-for-future-shocks,3472">Future shock</a>,  Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471">Ruined future</a> <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/not-destructive-as-predicted-but-the-loss-is-still-great,2221">Not-so-big One</a>,  From the Nepali Press

Past disasters foretold

<img width="1400" height="516" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca449c7e80680e02f2fcjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Seismologists say that the 2015 disaster in Nepal was the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-35286798">most data-rich</a> <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/earthquakes-dont-kill-people-weak-houses-and-bad-planning-do,1930">Himalayan earthquake</a> ever studied. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/photos-nepal-earthquake-2015,2207">7.8 magnitude earthquake</a> moved eastwards along a rupture zone from its epicentre in Gorkha, but mysteriously lost speed and intensity by the time it arrived in Kathmandu before fizzling out south of the Valley. Nearly all the 14 districts affected are east of Gorkha. The amplitude and the pulse ripples in the sediment of the Valley floor downed many monuments, but left most of the concrete buildings intact. <img width="130" height="101" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368ca479c7e80680e02f2fdjpeg.jpg" alt="">The 2015 earthquakes were an important <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19934#.WtRzzNRua71">warning</a> for us to be better prepared for the really big one. Despite the tragic loss of 8,900 lives, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/kunda-dixit-when-earthquake-struck-nepal,2214">Nepal got off relatively lightly</a> three years ago for a quake of that magnitude. Lots of other factors kept the fatalities low: had it struck on a weekday many tens of thousands of school children <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/earthquake-an-opportunity-to-rebuilt-education-system-not-just-fallen-schools,2336">would have been killed in the 8,000 schools</a> that were badly damaged. Telecommunications did not go down, Kathmandu airport was back in operation within hours, and the highways remained passable.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4270&amp;preview=true">Past disasters foretold</a>, Om Astha RaiNext time we <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/big-earthquake-still-coming-nepal,2815">may not be so lucky</a>. As coverage in this special third anniversary edition of this newspaper points out many of the badly-engineered ferrocement structures in Kathmandu will come down in the next big one. We will need specialised equipment and personnel trained in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676">search, locate, rescue</a> in collapsed concrete structures.Newly-elected municipalities will have to ensure preparedness by stopping encroachment on urban open spaces, prepositioning water and digging equipment, and have contingencies for telecommunications and transportation networks being knocked out.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/1-3-empty-or-2-3-full/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 1/3 empty or 2/3 full</a>, Nigel FisherThis is not scaremongering. Seismologists predict two dangers we have to prepare ourselves for: one is the incomplete tension release after 2015 along faultlines below Kathmandu Valley. This could set off another quake below 8 magnitude in the next decades.More worrying is the seismic gap in western Nepal where there hasn’t been a mega-earthquake in the last 700 years (see map). Monastic records in Tibet allow us to pinpoint the exact time of the last big earthquake there: 6AM on 1 June 1505. Estimated at 8.9, that earthquake devastated north India, destroyed Agra and other Moghul cities, may have trigged the Annapurna slope collapse that dammed the Seti River unleashing a tsunami when it burst. Pokhara today sits on the debris field of that cataclysmic flood.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=4275&amp;preview=true">How prepared are we for the next big one</a>, Sashi ShresthaHimalayan seismologist Roger Bilham of Colorado University says there is now enough slip deficit beneath western Nepal that can trigger a sudden elastic rebound, moving the terrain southwards and upwards by a shocking 14m in seconds.An earthquake of 8.5 magnitude epicentred in Surkhet, for instance, would not just destroy much of western Nepal, but also the densely packed cities of the Indo-Gangetic plains. This could conceivably be the greatest loss of life in a natural disaster in human history. The shaking would be intense enough to devastate Kathmandu as well.As our coverage in this issue points out, it is now time to think beyond reconstruction in the 14 districts affected in 2015 to upgrading preparedness and disaster response in central and western Nepal. Buildings, especially schools and hospitals, need to be urgently retrofitted.The Gorkha Earthquake three years ago was just a forewarning of an even bigger disaster to come.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2016/01/13/stirred-not-shaken/">Stirred, not shaken</a>,  Kunda Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal">Preparing to be prepared</a>,  Kunda Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one">Not out of danger yet</a>,  Sonia Awale<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251">A concrete future</a>,  Sonia Awale

Mind the gap

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

Job insecurity in security forces

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

seismology