In 2023, Nepalis made up the third fastest-growing student population in Canada. There were 20,465 Nepali study permit holders, up from 7,680 the year before, an increase of 166% in just one year.
Of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-hard-working-students-overseas">Australia</a>’s 26 million population, Nepalis account for over 300,000. Another 51,000 are in Portugal, making Nepalis among the biggest immigrant groups in the south Europe nation.
Every day, 3,000 Nepalis leave the country, and nearly 1 million left last year. Migrant workers in the Gulf, Malaysia and India mostly return. But a majority of Nepali youth leaving for the United States, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/europe-now-favoured-destination-for-nepalis">Europe</a>, Canada or Australia are emigrants.&nbsp;
Successive governments in Nepal have failed to stop this brain (and brawn) drain, treating migration as a convenient social safety valve and relying on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/high-risk-remittance">remittances as a critical source of support for the economy</a>. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Nearly a quarter of Nepal’s GDP equivalent comes from overseas remittances, higher than most labour-exporting countries. This is an indicator of a stagnant economy. &nbsp;Most of the money goes into paying for basic needs, and property investment. &nbsp;&nbsp;
At the 11th Nepal Literature Festival last week (pictured) economist <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-rebrand-itself">Swarnim Wagle</a> and urban planner <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/miss-nepals-mission">Shrinkhala Khatiwada</a>, both Havard-educated returnees, tried to answer the difficult question of how the diaspora can contribute to Nepal.
Nepalis have always migrated. A life of sub-subsistence farming in the mountains was hard, there was exclusion and inequity, and many fled loan sharks. Often, the only alternative was to fight and die in other people’s wars.&nbsp;
The Nepali word ‘lahure’ comes from the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-the-taliban-s-second-coming">British cantonments in Lahore</a>, where Nepali fighting men went after being recruited ever since the 1814-16 war. Nepalis have fought in most major wars, and hundreds are currently in the Russian Army. Some are also in the Ukrainian military.
Today, Nepal exports more workers than warriors. The number of migrants is increasing because the economy just cannot produce enough jobs for the 500,000 young men and women joining the workforce every year. &nbsp;
“For most aspirational middle-class Nepalis, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/nepal-s-remittance-villages">migration</a> is the only outlet,”acknowledged Wagle. “Frustration adds to this, there are long queues to pay taxes, get a driver’s license…and then there is the huge wage disparity between Nepal and elsewhere.”
Young Nepalis still in high school already think the country’s situation is hopeless and there is peer pressure to leave the first chance they get. Parents themselves want their children to settle abroad, and sell what little property they have or take high-interest loans to pay recruiters to send them off. The push-factors are not just economic.&nbsp;
In reality Nepal has made <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/not-rising-nepal">some dramatic progress</a> in health, education, poverty and development, although improvements are not evenly spread around the country. Young Nepalis are leaving without ever having truly lived and worked here.&nbsp;
In rural Nepal, families are paying up to Rs7 million to human traffickers to take their children to America through the backdoor. &nbsp;
The biggest frustration is the lack of well-paying meaningful jobs, and this is where the private sector could help.&nbsp;
Noted Khatiwada: “It is not the government’s job to create jobs but strengthen the private sector to do so. The private sector is responsible for 80% of jobs in the country and that is still not enough.”
She added that the private sector does not necessarily mean big companies, and they need help to grow and create jobs. She added, “Only when people have economic stability and security will they come back home.”
On return, Wagle joined politics, first the NC then the RSP “to deliver results and make the government accountable”.&nbsp;
The Tanahu MP breaks down the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/50-diaspora-diaries-in-nepali-times">Nepali diaspora</a> into three groups. First, Nepalis now permanent citizens of other countries who need to be engaged culturally to keep their links to Nepal.&nbsp;
Next are global Nepalis, who are abroad but still want to do things in Nepal. They can contribute through digitisation and IT, clean energy, high-value agriculture and tourism.
Third, are migrant returnees who come back with limited savings and skills, and who need help so their entrepreneurial dreams can take root and prosper so they do not have to leave again.&nbsp;
To this we can add that Nepal’s politicians must go another step and reform election laws so that Nepalis abroad also have voting rights. The established parties do not want to risk doing this, since they know the diaspora vote may unseat them.&nbsp;
In this paper, we have frequently profiled role models who have returned to Nepal and done well including a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/milking-every-opportunity">Korea returnee who started a modern dairy farm in Gulmi</a>. There are others like the aspiring bell pepper farmer in Dang who left a lucrative Wall Street job. A Kavre native who gave up his Canadian PR to run a resort in Pokhara. There are many like them.
And there are people like Swarnim Wagle and Shrinkhala Khatiwada who aspire to give back to Nepal what Nepal gave to them. &nbsp;
Sonia Awale

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Brain drain into brain gain

Perhaps no by-election in Nepal’s recent history has been as critical as the one on 23 April in Tanahu, Chitwan and Bara that will be make-or-break for the RSP, the independent party that is fourth largest in Parliament. &nbsp; The RSP is fielding charismatic technocrats in all three constituencies at a time when disillusionment with the established parties is rife.&nbsp; The polls are a three-way contest between the RSP, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the UML, with Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Maoist-Centre backing the NC candidates and nowhere in the radar. In Tanahu-1, Harvard-trained former World Bank economist Swarnim Wagle <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/buy-election">defected from the NC</a> to challenge Govinda Bhattarai in a contest to replace <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-chapter-in-nepal-political-saga">Ram Chandra Paudel</a>, who was medevaced to New Delhi on Wednesday just a month after being elected president. The UML has fielded former IGP Sarbendra Khanal, but many traditional UML and NC voters appear to favour Wagle.&nbsp; In a speech in Tanahu on Wednesday, Prime Minister Dahal said: “I have fallen deeply in love with Deubaji, and will work with him to fulfil the aspirations of the people.” The NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba was also at the hustings, saying he would induct Govinda Bhattarai in the Cabinet if he won.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230420110412_9f0a7b66285da667eb4489cc26fbfb22ccc3514e98da767efd10f9279bc81a57.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230420110412_9f0a7b66285da667eb4489cc26fbfb22ccc3514e98da767efd10f9279bc81a57" data-rendition-name="original" width="3600" height="2123" loading="lazy" alt="dahal deuba tanahu"> <figcaption>Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal of Maoist-Centre, Sher Bahadur Deuba of NC, Madhav Kumar Nepal of Unified Socialist and Baburam Bhattarai of Nepal Samajwadi Party on a by-election campaign trail in Tanahu. Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA/PMOPRADEEP RAJ ONTA/PMO</figcaption> </figure>  The stakes are high and campaigning has degenerated into personal attacks, including by NC leader Gagan Thapa against his erstwhile ally Wagle. For his part, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-rebrand-itself">Wagle </a>has promised good governance and an economic turnaround if elected. However, if Wagle splits the NC vote, it can benefit the UML.&nbsp; In Chitwan-2, RSP chair<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-rabi-lamichhane"> Rabi Lamichhane</a> will contest his own vacated House seat against the NC’s Jeet Narayan Shrestha and UML’s Ram Prasad Neupane. Chitwan has always been a NC stronghold, but voters there are disenchanted with the party for joining hands with the Maoists.&nbsp; For the RSP, the by-elections are a test of whether voters have stood by Lamichhane despite his citizenship scandal and allegations of corruption during his recent brief stint as home minister. Most RSP loyalists dismiss this as a smear campaign by the established parties and big media. Judging from the crowds at rallies, support for the RSP does not seem to have diminished. However, political analyst Indra Adhikari cautions against looking at the RSP through rose-tinted glasses.&nbsp; “The party has used exactly the same tactics as the established political parties,” she said. “The RSP’s support base is made of politically-informed, issue-based voters and they are aware of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/rabi-lamichhane-is-home-less">Lamichhane’s past</a>.” Meanwhile, in Bara-2, the competition will be mainly between JSP Chair Upendra Yadav and Shivachandra Prasad Kushwaha from CK Raut’s Janamat. Both aspire to fill vice-president Ram Sahay Yadav’s seat which he won in 2017. &nbsp; Upendra Yadav lost in Saptari-2 to Raut by a significant margin in November, and is said to have pushed to make Ram Sahay Yadav vice-president in an attempt to get back into the House. He is also said to be eyeing a deputy prime minister nomination if he gets to parliament, which is among the reasons Prime Minister Dahal has not finished <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/quid-pro-quo-quagmire">expanding his Cabinet</a> yet. The RSP has fielded former DIG Ramesh Kharel in Bara, and this will be a test of how well a non-Madhesi candidate will be accepted in the Tarai. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/whose-country-is-it-anyway">Whose country is it anyway?</a> ------------------------------------------- <h2>Miasma (noun)</h2> mi·​as·​ma &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;/mi'æz.mә/ &nbsp; 1: A vaporous exhalation formerly believed to cause disease. 2: An influence or atmosphere that depletes or corrupts.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023042011044_758e3b87c44645cacdf370b761a693bc0f36e5f1cd17e7259af0706cc0fcfc2d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2023042011044_758e3b87c44645cacdf370b761a693bc0f36e5f1cd17e7259af0706cc0fcfc2d" data-rendition-name="original" width="3560" height="2160" loading="lazy" alt="Swayambhu pollution"> <figcaption>Swayambhunath through the thick smoke on Wednesday afternoon. Photo: SUMAN NEPALISuman Nepali</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal marked the first week of the new decade of the 2080s with a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/central-nepal-engulfed-in-smoke">thick pall of smoke and dust</a> that blanketed the Tarai and mountain valleys. Kathmandu recorded an Air Quality Index for particles below 2.5 microns of 450, when the WHO has set 20-35 µg/m3 as the threshold for air safe to breathe.&nbsp; Widespread wildfires, a record-breaking heat wave in the plains, windblown sand from the Indian desert, Kathmandu’s vehicular emissions and transboundary industrial pollution are all to blame. But the biggest culprit is an unresponsive government which is too busy with business-as-usual politics to address this nationwide challenge to public health. Air pollution is a political disaster.&nbsp; Candidates this week have been breathing heavily-polluted air on the campaign trail, but none of them has promised to clean up if elected. The RSP does have in its ranks <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/arnico-panday-the-political-scientist">Arnico Panday</a> who is an atmospheric scientist and has the ear of the political leadership. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/when-the-air-is-clear-in-kathmandu">When the air is clear in Kathmandu</a>

Shristi Karki

National miasma

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a95689c7e80680e05dc07jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="758"/><figcaption>Mother's group in Accham feed home-cooked meal to their children. Photo: MARTY LOGAN</figcaption></figure>For the first two decades after 1990, Nepal took great strides in reducing malnutrition. But progress has stalled.Nepal registered one of the most dramatic reductions in undernourishment among children and women after the government and international agencies took action in recent decades to reverse shocking statistics that showed <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=570#.XcJAUtIza70">half of under-5 mortality in the country was due to insufficient nourishment</a>.“Nepal is the best country to showcase how political will can implement a multisectoral nutrition program,” says Brenda Kellen, director of Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN), which is holding a global nutrition conference in Kathmandu this week.“From being one of the countries with the highest malnutrition in the 1990s, with stunting at 57%, to have reduced it to 36% -- Nepal can offer lessons for the rest of the world and its model can be replicated elsewhere,” says Kellen, who added that holding the fifth SUN global gathering in Kathmandu was recognition of this achievement.Over 1,000 delegates from 61 countries are attending the conference to discuss the progress, challenges and priorities ahead to ending malnutrition by 2030, a target set by the United Nations’ World Health Assembly.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a956b9c7e80680e05dc08jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="901" height="786"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a956e9c7e80680e05dc09jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="794" height="223">However despite initial progress, figures for stunting, wasting and anaemia in Nepal have plateaued. UNICEF’s report, State of the World’s Children 2019, released last month, stated that 43% of children under five in Nepal were malnourished.“Malnutrition is still very much prevalent in Nepal, mainly among young children, adolescents and new mothers. We are not satisfied with the progress and there is still much to do,” says Anirudra Sharma at UNICEF Nepal.According to the 2016 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) wasting (low weight for age) among Nepali children under 5 still hovers at 10% -- a mere 1% decrease from 8 years ago. The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) require Nepal to reduce wasting to less than 5% by 2030. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Interesting-Times/Having-enough-to-eat-is-not-enough,340">Stunting</a> needs to be well below 15% in 10 years to meet the global target -- it is about 36% now.Says Swarnim Waglé, former vice-chair of the National Planning Commission who helped draw up Nepal’s Multi-Sectoral Nutrition Plan: “While a 20% reduction of chronic malnutrition in two decades is quite impressive, 36% stunting is still very high and unacceptable in this day and age. Conventional approaches will not help achieve targets.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a956f9c7e80680e05dc0ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="940" height="629">Anaemia among Nepali women has always been very high, but instead of declining it actually increased from 35% to 41% between 2011 and 2016. Anaemia in children below 5 rose dangerously in that period: from 46% to 53%.Exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months also declined, and is now 65% against a target of greater than 90%. There has been no significant change in low birth weight either, which declined only 2%, to 27%, in five years. The SDG target is below 5%.“Improvements in nutrition levels are stagnant because we have not reached the most vulnerable communities such as <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/the-face-of-hunger-debt-malnutrition,3604">Dalits</a> and people in remote far western Nepal,” says <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/we-are-what-we-eat-aruna-uprety,3954">public health expert Aruna Uprety</a>. “I see no reason to boast about our past achievements when the present level of chronic malnutrition is so serious.”Nutrition levels are affected not just by food intake, but access to safe drinking water and education about the right selection of food. Underweight children in cities and the rise in obesity are a result of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepalis-binge-on-junk-foods-the-west-rejected/">proliferation of junk food</a> replacing traditional nutrient-rich grains. Childhood obesity has decreased from 1.4% in 2011 to 1.2% but the figure needs to drop below 1% to meet the target.https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=34&amp;v=c-EPzTXSikw<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/junk-food-is-making-nepali-children-shorter/">An article in The Journal of Nutrition</a> earlier this year found that infants in Kathmandu were getting 25% of their calories from junk food and instead of being fat, those who consumed the most junk food were on average shorter than their peers.Brenda Kellen agrees that while there is a lot of concern about hunger and food security, there is not as much awareness about whether food is nourishing or not.“Let’s look at all the tools available to reduce malnutrition. Fortifying foods can mean that people get micronutrients but it should go hand in hand with promotion of locally produced foods,” Kellen says.Nutritionists believe that Nepal is on the right track, but it needs to make nutrition a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/let%E2%80%99s-go-ahead-with-local-elections,3593">political priority</a>, scale up its programs throughout the country and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/malnutrition-stunting-wasting,3603">target groups susceptible to malnutrition</a>.UNICEF’s Sharma says: “Nutrition should be universal, households should not be left behind. The government has to increase national investment on raising nutrition standards.”<h2>Private sector for nutrition?</h2>Do the private sector and nonprofits have a role in reducing malnutrition? Does their involvement allow the government to shirk its responsibility of ensuring equitable nutrition?<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a95719c7e80680e05dc0bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="452">The issue arose this week at a global conference on nutrition in Kathmandu. Among the 1,000 delegates attending the global gathering are representatives of <a href="https://scalingupnutrition.org/">Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN)</a> Business Network, which tries to build strong <a href="https://scalingupnutrition.org/sun-supporters/sun-business-network/">alliances between the private sector and government</a> to reduce malnutrition.“There are many small scale enterprises that are looking for opportunities to provide local solutions to nutrition-related challenges,” says Brenda Kellen (pictured left) of the Scaling Up Nutrition Movement, which is behind the global gathering in Kathmandu, 4-7 November.In fact, Nepal’s Multi-Sectoral Nutrition Plan 2018-2022 underlines the need for government to partner with business. Experts say that while it makes sense to involve food manufacturers and traders to improve nutrition, there is an inherent contradiction between businesses that are out to maximise profits and the need to ensure nutrition for communities that cannot afford adequate food.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13246#.XcJC79Iza70">Nutrition activist Aruna Uprety</a> is against private sector involvement in ensuring proper nutrition for all. “If you involve businesses they will look first for profit, not adequate nourishment. It is 100% the government’s job to reduce malnutrition.”Uprety says last week she left the Baliyo Nepal Nutrition Initiative, which is supported by the <a href="https://www.gatesfoundation.org/what-we-do/global-development/nutrition">Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMFG)</a>, because it would mobilise Nepal’s private sector food companies to raise nutrition levels among Nepalis. Baliyo Nepal was launched by President Bidya Devi Bhandari on 1 November (pictured below).<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a95739c7e80680e05dc0cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3600" height="2400">Baliyo Nepal’s Chair <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-Nepal-economic-growth,923">Swarnim Waglé</a>, former vice-chair of the National Planning Commission, says the organisation is not trying to take the place of the government but complement its efforts precisely because of the persistence of chronic malnutrition in the country.Baliyo Nepal was dragged into controversy recently after one of its backers, the Chaudhary Foundation, told the media that BMFG funding would be used to fortify its popular instant noodle brand Wai Wai. <a href="https://reliefweb.int/report/nepal/how-do-you-help-break-cycle-poverty-nepal-s-poorest-region">BMFG did test instant noodle fortification</a>, but Waglé says the initiative was not taken any further.He told Nepali Times: “We are not touching any junk food. We want to make nutrition affordable for all Nepalis and collaborate with companies to meet the demand. We are creating a sustainable and independent approach to meet malnutrition targets.”Some experts argue that nutrient fortification of food brands has been successful in Nepal in the past. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=12452#.XcJFodIza70">Iodisation of the Ayo Noon</a> brand of salt helped eradicate goitre and cretinism in Nepal in the 1990s.Whatever the merits of involving the private sector in ensuring nutrition for all, the real scandal is one in three Nepali children are still malnourished.

Sonia Awale

Nearly half of Nepali children still malnourished

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;