Nepali Times: What are the main demographic trends that will affect Nepal in the next 30 years? Won Young Hong: There are two major demographic trends we see on the horizon in Nepal in the next 30 years. The first of these is the age of the population. We expect fertility rates to continue to decline, as in many other countries in the region. It dropped from 4.6 children per woman in 1996 to 2.1 in 2022. This indicates a shift towards smaller family sizes in Nepal.&nbsp; The working-age population between 15-64 years is 64.6%, and this will peak in 2051 at 69.4% before starting to decline to 66.7% in 2061. At the same time, the proportion of people aged 60 and above increased from 7.6% in 2011 to 9.0% in 2021.&nbsp; The UN projections estimate that the share of the elderly population will continue to grow in the next few decades until one in five people (22.4%) are elderly in 2061. The second major demographic trend relates to migration, both within Nepal and overseas. According to the 2021 census, around 2.2 million Nepalis were living abroad in 2021. This trend is likely to continue as most young people seek opportunities abroad. Internal migration is also a major trend.&nbsp; Between 2011 and 2021, the population share in the Tarai increased from 50.3% to 53.6%, while in the hills, it decreased from 43% to 40.3%, and in the mountain region, it declined from 6.7% to 6.1%.&nbsp; There is significant internal migration from rural to urban areas in search of better job opportunities and improved living conditions, leading to rapid urbanisation. By 2021, about 27.1% of the population resided in urban areas, up from 22.3% in 2011, while the share of the population living in peri-urban areas remained similar at around 39%.&nbsp; The share of the rural population declined from 38.5% to 33.2% during the same period. Urban areas, especially the Kathmandu Valley, have seen significant population growth, while over half of rural municipalities have seen negative growth. Provincial capitals like Biratnagar and Janakpur have seen population surges. Current trends indicate a rising share of the urban population and a shrinking rural population in the future. How can Nepal avoid the mistakes of some other Asian countries in responding to low fertility? It is an important question, and there are no fixed answers because each country is unique in many ways. Low fertility levels are a global trend, and no single country has managed to reverse this through policies despite a variety of initiatives being introduced. There are many lessons to be learned.&nbsp; It is clear that policies with an exclusive focus on the reproductive function of women with cost-based financial support without addressing structural issues affecting reproductive decisions made by men and women are largely unsuccessful.&nbsp; It is important for Nepal to analyse the issues and develop a context-driven and evidence-based approach to responding to the needs of people. Generally, policy is most effective in supporting people's choices when it responds to the diverse needs of individuals.&nbsp; For example, it is crucial to recognise the impact of the disparities between paid employment and raising children and close that gap with financial support for families with limited incomes. At the same time, employment needs to support women and men with children so they can balance family life and activities with work. Less rigid 9–5 working hours and accessible and high-quality childcare support are just a few of the measures that can help.&nbsp; Employers need to be encouraged to recognise that people with children in the workplace have needs and that there are systemic barriers for parents that have wider social impacts. These can be broken down with greater accommodation of the diversity of preferences of adults as to their choices of when and how many children they want to have.&nbsp; Policies need to create family and child-friendly societies focused on the health, education, and well-being of children and families at large to be successful. Public spending is another such tool, with levels of public funding for families closely linked with period fertility rates as well as cohort family size. There also needs to be individual choices available including in relation to sexual and reproductive health and rights and family planning.&nbsp; There is no one-size-fits-all solution. UNFPA is encouraging this kind of learning and knowledge sharing across countries because there is a huge increase in countries with declining populations, and we believe there are important lessons to be shared across the region and the wider globe. And it is imperative that policies be developed now rather than in a reactive manner.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240714020756_22823ab3f792d6bcc5169b6912021be51006b65c1dda95771fbed1293fccdf6f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240714020756_22823ab3f792d6bcc5169b6912021be51006b65c1dda95771fbed1293fccdf6f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1060" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Won Young Hong UNFPA"> <figcaption>Photo: UNFPA ASIA</figcaption> </figure>  How serious is the anomaly in male: female ratio in Nepal? I would say any population anomaly has serious impacts. Nepal exhibits a skewed sex ratio at birth, with 112 boys born for every 100 girls, according to the 2021 census. This is higher than the biologically normal range of 102 to 107 males per 100 females, indicating potential sex selection practices. The disparity is particularly pronounced in Madhes province, where the sex ratio at birth is 118, compared to the lowest ratio of 106 in Kosi province.&nbsp; This imbalance is concerning as it mirrors trends seen in countries like China (112) and India (108), where cultural preferences for male children have led to significant gender imbalances. The preference for male children can have long-term social impacts, including an imbalance in the population structure related to gender disparity and discrimination.&nbsp; This might include a decline in marriages and partnerships, which can further increase the risks of human trafficking, gender-based violence, and other forms of harm. Nepal needs to identify the underlying drivers and address them with appropriate policy measures. In countries where over the long term there was this kind of imbalance, we see challenges, including a shortage of domestic labour in the workforce, a rapid reduction of fertility levels, and very few tools to reverse these trends. How are population dynamics, gender relations, migration and dropping fertility rate impacting Nepal’s population? The large proportion of the population that is young can potentially bring an enormous demographic dividend with investments in education, healthcare, and infrastructure. There is, however, a limited time window to seize this opportunity of about 30 years, when the population dynamic momentum will reverse as the lower rates of fertility start to impact working age groups and the percentage of the elderly will continue to increase.&nbsp; As the population ages and the proportion of young to old reverses, profound policy-level challenges arise. To take advantage of the window of a demographic dividend, targeted investments that directly benefit young people, including girls, need to be made now while fully implementing a wider range of socio-economic initiatives at all levels in line with the national development vision. We are seeing some really key results in Nepal’s legal framework and policies, including special measures to promote women in public life. At the same time, gender inequality remains a significant challenge, with persistent disparities in public and private spaces.&nbsp; Such persistent gaps, combined with social and economic factors like rising living costs, education costs for children, and childcare costs, will continue to discourage young women and men from having children.&nbsp; For that to happen, there needs to be a family-friendly environment for young people, women and men, to pursue a family life that includes raising children at home and being balanced with the workplace.&nbsp; This brings me on to the second part of your question on migration. The impact is, of course, profound. As people move abroad or to cities, the population landscape changes. If the large numbers of people overseas decide not to return, it will definitely contribute to the low fertility trends in the medium to long term. Equally, as people move to cities from rural or remote areas, there is a huge risk of leaving these areas barren and depopulated, leaving only an ageing population.&nbsp; These population flows require careful policy intervention and incentives to encourage people to invest in Nepal. It is welcome that the government is discussing ways to allow migrants to vote so their preferences can be reflected in the legislature and policymaking and future opportunities that encourage them to return to the country. UNFPA has been involved in helping the Nepal government plan for the demographic window? What have some of your main suggestions been? We do support the Government of Nepal in the area of the demographic window, and the first part of this relates to generating data and evidence that take into account demographic shifts and other megatrends in development policies and plans, as we recognise that without disaggregated, high-quality data and evidence, it will not be possible to achieve inclusive and sustainable development, including economic growth.&nbsp; Evidence is key to good decision-making, and the decisions made today can profoundly impact population dynamics in the future. As such, we support timely, high-quality, and disaggregated data generation that is essential for identifying those furthest behind. A second and related part supports the strategic use of evidence, including data, to improve understanding of the population and demographic structure of Nepal in actual policy decisions. We work with government decision-makers at all levels and civil society to translate data and evidence into pragmatic policies, such as the population policy, that respond to existing and future needs, including the sexual and reproductive health and rights of women and men.&nbsp; Population policy is very important to Nepal, and our experience across the globe shows that to future-proof population policy, it needs to respond in a holistic manner to the socio-economic changes we are witnessing and respond to the diverse needs of young people.&nbsp; To do this, it needs to examine a wide range of issues, including budgetary ones, affecting family decisions, and gender inequality. It is critical for Nepal to expand its understanding of population issues and build an integrated planning framework to respond to the new population trends.

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Future-proofing Nepal’s population strategy

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101148/63720f509c7e80680e0b796ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="2000"/><figcaption>Photo: NISSI THAPA</figcaption></figure>Over 600,000 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-conceivable-reason-for-unwanted-pregnancies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pregnancies in Nepal in 2017 were unintended</a>, close to two-third of which ended in abortion, reveals a new report released this week by the UNFPA, the United Nations sexual and reproductive health agency aimed at shedding light on the often neglected health crisis affecting women of reproductive age worldwide.The State of World Population 2022 report titled Seeing the Unseen also estimated that nearly half of all global pregnancies, totalling 121 million each year, are unintended and that 'for the women and girls affected, the most life-altering reproductive choice — whether or not to become pregnant — is no choice at all.'“This report is a wakeup call. The staggering number of unintended pregnancies represents a global failure to uphold women and girls’ basic human rights,” says UNFPA Executive Director Natalia Kanem. “Our report reveals that rates of unintended pregnancy strongly correlate with gender inequality, with lower socioeconomic development, and with more restrictions on sexual and reproductive rights.”The report further states that over 60% of unintended pregnancies end in abortion and an estimated 45% of all <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/globe-rallies-to-aid-nepals-women,3841" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">abortions are unsafe</a>, responsible for 5-13% of all maternal deaths. After taking dramatic strides to reduce maternal mortality rate from 539 per 100,000 live births to 239 between 1996 to 2016, Nepal’s progress has since stagnated, further affected by the pandemic in the last two years.Some 44% of Nepali women of reproductive age who want to avoid pregnancy do not use any contraceptive methods. Similarly, use of modern methods of birth control among married women of reproductive age stands at 43%, leading to high rates of unintended pregnancy and unsafe abortion, while 50% of those who do use contraceptives discontinue within a year. Prevalent gender norms that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-far-from-hitting-contraceptive-target/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">prevent women and girls from accessing reproductive health care</a> including contraceptives have been identified as a key factor.In addition, half of all pregnancies among adolescents are estimated to be unintended, as only 23% in the group are reported to use contraceptives -- much lower compared to the national average of 43%.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lets-talk-about-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Let’s talk about it</a>, Duksangh SherpaThe report further states that for every additional dollar spent on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/implant-service-providers-take-contraception-to-nepals-poor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expanding modern contraceptive use</a>, Nepal would save $2 on maternal and newborn care as a result of fewer unintended births, induced abortions and maternal deaths."The perception among some policy makers that investing in family planning is no longer necessary due to the decline is fertility in Nepal is very concerning," says Lubna Baqi, UNFPA Country Representative, "as it does not take into account the high levels of unmet need for family planning, which currently stands at 24%, and the high rates of unintended pregnancies, and unsafe abortions that take place because of the gaps in services.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101148/63720f549c7e80680e0b796bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="1216">Women and girls from minority groups face further challenges and discrimination in accessing services and information. Given that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-search/?q=child+marriage" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">child marriage is still prevalent</a> in Nepal with nearly 41% of adolescents married before 18, adolescent girls are at a higher risk.Abortion services on the other hand are largely unsafe. Despite being legalised in 2002, majority of abortions continue to be conducted by untrained personnel or induced by pregnant women themselves. On top of this, most women and girls face structural and informal hindrances barring them from safe services.The report urges decision-makers and health systems to improve accessibility, acceptability, quality and variety of contraception methods to reduce unwanted pregnancies by expanding <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sisterhoods-empowering-education-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sexual and reproductive health care </a>and public awareness. Equally crucial is to empower women and girls to make their own decisions in the matters of sex, contraception and motherhood.Says Baqui: “Contraceptives save lives and it is high time the Nepal government allocated the necessary financing to fulfil this fundamental human right."Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=33648&amp;preview_nonce=5c7e9df60a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Born in Nepal</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=33648&amp;preview_nonce=5c7e9df60a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> </a>

1 in 2 pregnancies in Nepal unintended

https://youtu.be/FmieAvLuWBoFederalism was supposed to bring the government closer to the people, decentralise medical care and improve <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">public health</a> at the grassroots. But the new three-tier government structure threatens to undo Nepal’s gains in improving health services.The government’s ‘adjustment policy’ in the medical sector, which lets staff to pick their preferred tier of work, has led many to choose the federal level, leaving provinces and municipalities underserved. The biggest losers are the areas already lacking in services: Province 6 (Karnali) and the Far Western Province.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37757&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Poor health makes Nepalis poorer</a>, Editorial At the Kolti Primary Health Care Centre in Bajura, there is no doctor, after the one serving here chose to be transferred to Kathmandu. Bajura District Hospital has five doctors but the contracts of three of them will soon expire.“I have not been informed of my new hospital yet, but I am about to be transferred. In two months, there will be a shortage of doctors here,” predicts Chief Medical Officer Rup Chandra BK, adding that all technicians, including a paramedic, a radiographer and health assistants, have been transferred or will be soon.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Is free health care possible in Nepal?</a>, S P Kalaunee <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This is how to upgrade Nepal's rural health</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66a79c7e80680e059998jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"/>With a population of 135,000 people, Bajura has no private hospitals and only one government hospital, a primary health care centre, and 26 health posts. WHO recommends a doctor-patient ratio of 1:1,000, but here it is 1:150,000, while Kathmandu has a ratio of 1:850.This is nothing new: Far Western Province has long faced medical staff shortages. According to the Department of Health Services Report 2018, only 80% of positions in health facilities were filled, and only 56 of the 142 sanctioned doctor positions were staffed. That number will decrease further after adjustment.According to a list of adjustments of 8th level general practitioners (GPs) by the ministry of health, 36 doctors were serving in Far Western Province, but only 9 of them have chosen to remain. Of the 631 doctors at this level, as many as 326 chose the federal level, which means they are concentrated in Province 3. It is the same story in all other provinces. There are only 14 doctors in Province 6.“Far Western Province has always faced a shortage of doctors. We have a lot of nurses, assistants, and technicians, and even if they are transferred there are others to replace them. But specialist doctors earn a lot in the cities and a government hospital cannot offer them as much. No wonder they do not want to stay here if they have a choice,” says Ramesh Kunwar at the ministry of social welfare in the province.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Poor health</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/henry-marsh-returns-to-the-institute-created-by-his-neurosurgeon-colleague-upendra-devkota/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Henry Marsh returns to the institute created by his neurosurgeon colleague Upendra Devkota</a><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66a99c7e80680e059999jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Government Doctors’ Association of Nepal (GODAN) is also unhappy. “From the beginning we have said that the medical sector is different from others and adjustment would result in neglect of underserved regions and migration of doctors to the cities, and we were right,” says Dipendra Pandey, president of GODAN. “We proposed that a federal bridge should be created, so that medical professionals working at the federal level can be sent back to their previous working area.”Ironically<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/risking-his-life-to-save-lives/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, physician Govinda KC</a> had to call off his 17th fast unto death in Dadeldhura because the district hospital did not have proper facilities in case his health deteriorated. KC has been protesting the commercialisation of medical education, which forces doctors to work in the cities to recoup their investments.“If the government does not replace those who are leaving the province, there is going to be a great crisis in healthcare in the Far West,” says Gunaraj Awasthi, chief of the Far West Regional Health Directorate in Dipayal. “It should immediately reinstitute those medical professionals on contract service.”<h2>Neglect kills mothers</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66ad9c7e80680e05999ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Lalita Bohora, 27, was ten months pregnant when her husband helped her walk for three days from Kolti to Bajura District Hospital to deliver her baby earlier this year. The staff told her it was a complicated pregnancy and there were no doctors to perform a caesariean section.Bohora was lucky — many other mothers are in no position to walk to the district hospital. Although Nepal’s maternal mortality rate (MMR) has come down drastically from 600 per 100,000 live births two decades ago to 239 today, many mothers in remote districts like Bajura continue to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/people-politics-placentas-child-delivery-complications,3922" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lose their lives</a> just because maternity wards are not staffed, or properly equipped.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/people-politics-placentas-child-delivery-complications,3922" target="_blank" rel="noopener">People, Politics, and Placentas</a>, Bikrash Gauchan<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66b09c7e80680e05999bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="643" height="376">Since it started in 1997, the government’s safe motherhood program has provided cash to mothers if they do all four antenatal checkups, and mothers, and medical staff, are given cash incentives for institutional delivery. The number of birthing centres staffed by at least one skilled birth attendant has reached 1,755 nationwide.Despite the progress, Nepal is unlikely to bring MMR down to 125 by next year as planned, or meet the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of 70 by 2030. Nepal’s topography and lack of roads are not the only reasons progress in MMR has stalled. According to a recent survey, half of public health facilities in Nepal lack running water and electricity at all times.Bajura District Hospital is constructing a new building, but it still operates out of an old, partly demolished building, where the operation theatre is a tin shed and there is irregular water supply and  electricity.“We hook up machines to the power supply during complicated operations, and the electricity suddenly goes off — we have to improvise a lot here,” says surgeon Durga Maharjan.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66b19c7e80680e05999cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"></figure>Ward at Bajura District HospitalHaemorrhage during birth used to be the biggest cause of maternal mortality in the 1990s, now it is hospital-borne infections like sepsis. Many older women still think babies should be born at home, and dissuade their daughters-in-law from giving birth at a health facility.“There is still the idea that childbirth is a normal, natural thing, and not something you need to visit a hospital for,” says Latika Maskey at the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).Only 30% of women in Bajura go for all four of the antenatal checkups, while the average for the Far West region is 55%, and nationally it is still a high 44%. Because settlements are scattered in roadless remote Nepal, the government has focused on basic health facilities and birthing centres instead of large well-equipped hospitals, explains Punya Poudel at the safe motherhood program in the ministry of health.“We have a roadmap to reduce MMR to 70 by 2030 by focusing on postnatal checkups, midwives will be trained for delivery and community nurses will visit women at home during ante and postnatal periods,” says Poudel.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66b49c7e80680e05999djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>However, many of the new birthing centres are near bigger health facilities, which makes them less useful. There is a concern among health professionals that populist agendas have fuelled construction sprees, and that the birthing centres are not always staffed and ready to provide service.“Simply building birthing centres is not the solution. They should be properly mapped and located where they will be most effective. They should be functional so that at least one person is available 24 hours a day to provide simple delivery services,” says Pavan Agarwal at Bayalpata Hospital in nearby Achham district.Neetu Shrestha of UNFPA says reproductive health should not be limited to treatment of birth as an event. She says: “To improve maternal health, we need to focus on sex education, invest in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-far-from-hitting-contraceptive-target/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">family planning</a> knowledge and methods, ante and post-natal care, and address cultural barriers.”

Federalism leaves Nepal’s medical sector ailing

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121148/6368f1049c7e80680e035a06jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1199"/><figcaption>Pics: NSI</figcaption></figure>Avinashi Poudel, 30, is a mother of two, including a 10-week baby boy. She only breastfeeds her baby, and has supportive in-laws and a mother friendly environment at her workplace. But seven years ago when she was a first time mother, she was not aware of the benefits of exclusive breastfeeding and her first baby did not get enough of her milk.Rama Thapa, 23, moved to Kathmandu from Tanahu after she got married. She now has a six-month baby boy, and feeds him food supplements because she says her own milk is not enough. Her family and friends told her the baby needs the formula to grow up strong and healthy.Nearly seven out of every ten Nepali mothers still exclusively breastfeed their babies, but some families are turning to supplements because of inroads by baby food manufacturers. Ironically, mothers in western countries where those baby food alternatives were first introduced, have returned to exclusive breastfeeding.Nepal is among the countries that are already above the World Health Organisation (WHO) target to increase the rate of exclusive breastfeeding in babies' first six months to at least 50%, by 2025. However, because of aggressive marketing by baby formula brands, Nepal has set its own national target to increase exclusive breastfeeding to 80%.“Nepal has set a good standard in breastfeeding but we need to sustain it and make further progress, this requires policy implementation and monitoring,” says Pradiumna Dahal, nutrition expert at UNICEF Nepal, who is worried that not all health workers are aware of the benefits of breastfeeding.The use of breast milk substitutes is so widespread that health professionals in the Far-West are prescribing bottled milk in hospitals. Baby food is a burgeoning industry, and salesmen often target hospitals, doctors and nurses with inducements to prescribe babies substitutes for breast milk.After a huge international outcry against Nestle and other baby food supplement manufacturers, the WHO adopted the <a href="http://www.who.int/nutrition/publications/code_english.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">International Code of Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes</a> to promote breastfeeding. Nepal passed the <a href="http://www.nnfsp.gov.np/PublicationFiles/2574d2af-7992-469b-befa-ad939ac96497.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Substitute of Breast Milk Act</a> in 1992 to control the sale and distribution of breast milk substitutes. It penalises health professionals pushing and manufacturers promoting baby food formulas.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121148/6368f1079c7e80680e035a07jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="234">But while the $70 billion global baby food industry has seen sales plummet in Western countries, as more mothers embrace breastfeeding, modern lifestyles and higher purchasing power has pushed families in developing countries to use infant formulas.Recently, the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/08/trump-administration-opposes-breastfeeding-resolution-report" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Trump administration exerted pressure to dilute</a> the clause in a resolution to promote and support breastfeeding at the World Health Assembly in Geneva in order to promote the interests of infant formula manufacturers. The US delegation even threatened Ecuador that it would terminate military aid if it voted for the resolution. Washington could also cut funding for WHO, the UN Population Fund and other agencies involved in promoting breastfeeding, reproductive health, contraceptives, abortion and even vaccination programs in developing countries, including Nepal.Allowing infant formula manufacturers unrestricted access to the domestic market threatens to undo decades of effort in Nepal to reduce the infant mortality rate and promote <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/people-politics-placentas-child-delivery-complications,3922" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">maternal health</a>.“We have been working to promote breast milk and convinced a large proportion of mothers in Nepal to exclusively breastfeed. However, we have not been able to regulate the activities of the manufacturers of breast milk substitutes,” says Bikash Lamichhane at the Department of Health Services.Nutritionist Aruna Uprety says that despite the government’s claim that the rate of exclusive <a href="https://katherinerosman.com/extended-breastfeeding/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">breastfeeding</a> has increased, breast milk substitutes are used widely, even in government hospitals. Manufacturers are known to reward clinics and doctors promoting and prescribing their infant formulas.“Breastfeeding is engrained in our culture, we don’t need foreign experts to teach us its significance. We just need to create awareness and provide an enabling environment for women to be able to breastfeed,” Uprety told Nepali Times.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121148/6368f1089c7e80680e035a08jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1199">Indeed, health officials say any future cuts in American funding for maternal and child health should not make a big dent on efforts to promote exclusive breastfeeding in Nepal.In 2016, the government set up a system to monitor the use of breast milk substitutes in each district. But with new federal and provincial structures in place, and confusion about the role of district health offices, experts are worried that the monitoring system will not be effective.A <a href="http://www.nphss.org.np/archive_2012/52-54.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">survey in 2011 by the Institute of Medicine</a> showed that despite the Baby Friendly Hospital Initiative, there had been no action to control and regulate breast milk substitutes and producers and the distributors were found to be violating the Breast Milk Substitute Act. The study also noted that the promotion of breastfeeding was not prioritised and awareness was limited to token functions during World Breastfeeding Week.Studies have shown that counselling, awareness and legislating paid maternity leave increased the rate of exclusive breastfeeding, and had an immediate impact on maternal and infant health as well as the overall economy.Says UNICEF’s Dahal: “We need to encourage more women to breastfeed. That means adding breastfeeding corners in our work places and providing maternal security in the form of sufficient leave.”The Department of Health Services is planning to inaugurate a breastfeeding corner at its own office in Teku to mark World Breastfeeding Week (1-7 August). UNICEF is supporting the government to set up 30 baby friendly hospitals, and train counsellors and other personnel. The Ministry of Health is also preparing to extend the duration of paid maternity leave from two months to six, to improve maternal and child health.<h4>The Trump tremor</h4><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121148/6368f10b9c7e80680e035a09jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="354">Nepal has scored dramatic success in reducing maternal and infant mortality rates over the few decades, and USAID has been one of the biggest bilateral backers for family planning, reproductive health, maternal and child health projects.However, funding for these programs has often been affected by successive Republican administrations because of a strong conservative lobby for the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/globe-rallies-to-aid-nepals-women,3841" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Global Gag Rule</a>, which seeks to end American aid for contraceptive promotion and abortion.The <a href="https://pai.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Access-Denied-The-Impact-of-the-Global-Gag-Rule-in-Nepal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">last time it was in effect, during the Bush Administration</a>, mobile clinics providing reproductive services to rural Nepal were discontinued. The Family Planning Association of Nepal (FPAN) lost $400,000 in USAID-funded contraceptives, which represented two-thirds of its total stock, and a further loss of $100,000 per year that supported reproductive health clinics.President Donald Trump has renamed the Gag Rule as ‘Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance’ after restoring it in March 2017. Despite its new name, it is actually stricter, even targeting breastfeeding and vaccines.“The Global Gag Rule is not new, what is new is that it has come back with added force under Trump and can have devastating consequences on Nepal,” explains public health expert Aruna Uprety. “By pulling money out of abortion, they are going to increase unsafe abortions and end up killing more women. It is against human rights.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121148/6368f10d9c7e80680e035a0ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="558">Just a month before the 2015 earthquake, the Nepal Government made a commitment to increase the family planning budget allocation by 7% annually. It partnered with international and private organisations to meet the target, but most of these partners are likely to lose a chunk of their funding.“Our government already lacks resource to meet the commitment. With the US pulling out, the gap is only going to widen,” says an official working in family planning.A US Embassy spokesperson said the United States remained committed to helping the welfare of women and children in developing countries: “The Protecting Life in Global Assistance policy has not reduced funding for women and children’s health by one dollar. USAID works together with the Government of Nepal and other external development partners, including multilateral partners, to coordinate interventions, synergise, and reduce gaps. USAID has strong working relationships with both UNFPA and WHO in Nepal.”Although <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">family planning</a> is a small component of the aid budget for maternal health, the cuts are biting. The EU and Nordic countries have stepped in, but their contribution does not meet the shortfall.At the recent World Health Assembly in Geneva, the United States wanted to dilute a routine agreement on breastfeeding, amidst a global outcry.The United States delegation wanted to water down the resolution by removing a call on governments to ‘protect, promote and support breast-feeding’ and another clause calling for restrictions on the promotion of baby foods.“What happened was tantamount to blackmail, with the US holding the world hostage and trying to overturn nearly 40 years of consensus on the best way to protect infant and young child health,” Patti Rundall of the British advocacy group Baby Milk Action was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/08/health/world-health-breastfeeding-ecuador-trump.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">quoted by the New York Times </a>as saying.The uproar set off alarm bells in Nepal, where donor support has been critical in trying to meet the target of getting 80% of mothers to breastfeed by 2022.The US Embassy clarified that improving nutrition among mothers, infants, and young children was still an important public health priority for the United States, and it remained committed to working with WHO and other stakeholders to improve health and nutrition through “cost-effective and evidence-based” measures.But, the spokesperson added: “While the United States recognises that breastfeeding and provision of breast milk is best for all babies, we recognise not all women are able to breastfeed for a variety of reasons. These women should have access to full and accurate information about breastfeeding, the benefits of breastfeeding, and safe alternatives when breastfeeding is not possible.”Some experts contend that cuts in funding would not affect the breastfeeding campaign, and Nepal did not need to be dependent on donors anymore.“Even if the US cuts funding, Nepal is capable of going ahead on its own. Awareness here about breast milk far exceeds any opposition from outside, it’s just that the government has to own it,” says former WHO public health expert Rita Thapa.Aruna Uprety agrees, but adds that the Americans have played cleverly on a woman’s choice not to breastfeed: “This distracts from the fact that mother’s milk is the healthiest for babies.”The conclusion is that Nepal is perfectly capable of maintaining its momentum not just on breastfeeding, but also on protecting maternal and infant health with or without outside help.<h4>Breast is best</h4>Awareness and education can double exclusive breast-feeding rates in societies. Paid maternity leave can increase breastfeeding rates by 50%. This directly helps the national economy, and the health of mothers and babies. Breastfeeding:<ul><li>Prevents breast cancer deaths</li> <li>Reduces infant diarrhoea by half and respiratory infections by one-third</li> <li>Decreases hospital admissions by 57-72%</li> <li>Children's IQ increases by average of 3 points</li> <li>Investing $1 to promote breastfeeding yields $35 in economic returns</li></ul>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PSs2cPsciw

Sonia Awale

Back to the nipple in Nepal

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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