<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057aa9c7e80680e0ce169jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>The Himalaya is a hotspot in more ways than one. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031027000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2qldtXvBBGlTizC2zYp2-6">Climate breakdown</a> is melting its ice at an unprecedented rate, countries that border the Himalaya are not in speaking terms, and the world’s youngest mountain range is in a seismically active zone.Geopolitics and geotectonics collide along the 2,400km Himalayan arc, even while its glaciers shrink and the snowline recedes. The Siachen Glacier at 6,000m elevation is the world’s highest battlefield where the militaries of India and Pakistan have been eyeball-to-eyeball since 1984. Thousands of troops have died either because of altitude or by avalanches, few in actual fighting.India and China have over 60,000 troops facing each other in a disputed part of Ladakh, and dozens on both sides were killed when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/view-of-galwan-from-bhutan/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2GK9eh_kycFgXSxwoWlgF9">clashes erupted in 2020.</a>Accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers have created hundreds of new lakes along the mountains. Because they are dammed by fragile moraines, these are in danger of bursting — a risk that has been compounded by earthquake risk.The climate crisis is a water crisis, and nowhere is this more acute than in the Himalaya. What happens at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-crisis-local-solutions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-crisis-local-solutions/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1FjilnWV90pM-k7HDurzLV">UN Climate Summit (COP27)</a> in Egypt this week will determine whether greenhouse gas emissions that thaw the Himalaya will be reduced in the coming decade.Some 2 billion people living downstream depend on rivers that originate in the Himalaya and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/it-is-getting-hotter-on-the-roof-of-the-world/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw10rcns9BCSYKWoDyA5UyzO">Tibetan Plateau</a>. In fact, as the permanent ice in the Himalaya melts, water is going to be a strategic commodity that could further inflame geopolitical tensions in an already volatile region.In their new monograph Governing the ‘Water Tower of Asia’: The Case for a System of Integrated Knowledge for the Hindu Kush Himalaya, Jayanta Bandyopadhyay and Sayanangsu Modak of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in New Delhi make a strong case for integrating water management of the ten river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range.The circulation of water vapour in the atmosphere, along rivers and of underground water does not respect international boundaries, but policies governing the water cycle are national in scope. The authors propose the creation of ‘integrated knowledge’ that is essential for combined management of water in future as the climate crisis magnifies current problems. Such knowledge has to be trans-boundary as well as trans-disciplinary, they argue.In their study, Bandyopadhyay and Modak come up with the concept of SINK (System of Integrated Knowledge) that tries to transcend present fragmented planning to include inter-disciplinary knowledge.‘Nature organises itself in a systematic and integrated manner, (but) the reductionism that has predominated the contemporary governance paradigm interrupts nature’s systems,’ they write.The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1211#.Y2irfS8RqLc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D1211%23.Y2irfS8RqLc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0dXIz-K6POTNMYbr7scCxi">Himalayan landscape</a> is a ‘climate-maker’ that precipitates water from sky rivers as snow and rainfall. The ice on mountains has accumulated over millennia, advancing and retreating with the Ice Ages, but the present glacial retreat is different because of its pace, and since it is caused by anthropogenic carbon build-up in the atmosphere.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057af9c7e80680e0ce16ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1872" height="1416">Although ice and snow are more visible and get most of the attention in the climate debate, it is groundwater stored in deep aquifers and released slowly through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1SsKvIyK0otuCwZCc5E44W">perennial springs</a> into rivers on which most people depend. In fact, besides being the ‘Water Tower of Asia’, the Himalaya has also been described as a gigantic sponge.Both the ice and groundwater storage is now being impacted by global warming and the changes in landcover due to deforestation, haphazard infrastructure, or mining activities. The hydrology of Himalayan rivers from the Amu Darya to Brahmaputra, the Ganga and its Nepal tributaries, the Mekong, the Burmese rivers, and the Yangtse and the Yellow Rivers are all changing rapidly.Because of the transboundary nature of water, the author’s SINK model cannot be nationally defined. The way a country tampers with its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2kUUyQCRaI__QLPtqxk7Nr">river-floodplain ecosystem</a> does not just affect its own population, but spills over the border to people living downstream in another country.The monograph examines each of the ten Himalayan-Hindu Kush river basins. It cites the silt load on the Yellow River, the disruption caused by the three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze, dam-building by China on the Mekong and its impact on Thailand, Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, the Chinese dams on the Salween and Irrawaddy that flow into Burma, the Brahmaputra-Yarlung Tsangpo that flows from China through India into Bangladesh, and the Ganga basin.Studies have shown that only 9% of the total flow of the Ganga is from glacial melt (it can be up to 50% for the Indus) More than 60% of the annual flow of the Ganga is from tributaries in Nepal, and up to 80% of that goes down during the four monsoon months.The Ganga plains in India is one of the most densely-populated parts of the world, and 70% of its area is intensely farmed — mostly along the fertile floodplains. Besides the seasonal fluctuation in its rivers, distribution of water in the basin is also unbalanced, with the western parts much drier than the east.All this has historically had a bearing on <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15163#.Y2iuEC8RqLc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D15163%23.Y2iuEC8RqLc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WIAHiXmzjrQ8_I0qGWzWI">flood control embankments </a>in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, large-scale irrigation projects, and over-extraction of groundwater in the dry season. As the authors note, big flood control projects in India have exacerbated the crisis because sedimentation raises the river bed, embankments are breached, the floodplains are deprived of nutrient-rich silt.Then there are geopolitical implications for the construction of storage reservoirs to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-geopolitics-of-nepals-water-and-electricity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-geopolitics-of-nepals-water-and-electricity/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0qajX_1xlL10R2N9ljrZEj">regulate flow and generate electricity</a> from the Ganga’s tributaries in Nepal. But the authors warn, ’Upstream water storage is an attractive proposition to control the spate of flooding but research indicates that it could, at best, reduce the intensity of flooding.’A key paragraph in the text underlines the importance of cross-border interdisciplinary planning on rivers: ‘Monsoons and the resultant high flows in the river system are a key ingredient for the ecological integrity of the whole basin. They allow for the geomorphic actions within river corridors – generation of sediments, their transportation and deposition, recharge of aquifers and water bodies, and help enhance the productivity of land in a landscape that is still closely integrated with the natural system.The integration between the economy, ecology and society needs to be rewired to create harmony and balance preferably at a river basin or large watershed scale to respect the natural process of integration.Alas, within countries and in trans-boundary rivers there is a disregard for crossborder planning, and a fragmented approach that exploits river flows unsustainably and harms the entire ecosystem. These man made disturbances are further upended by climate breakdown.The monograph devotes an entire chapter to expounding in detail about SINK by integrating three disciplines: natural sciences, social sciences and indigenous knowledge. It rejects the historical reductionist engineering paradigm that has governed river planning. Local knowledge and re-defining ‘development’ are also critical in the SINK approach.The authors list governance challenges for professionals while addressing the multiple crises in the Himalayan basin: surviving extreme weather aggravated by climate change, sustainable sediment management, conserving biodiversity, reducing river pollution, and one that is particularly relevant to Nepal: intra-basin hydropower development.Bandyopadhyay, who earlier served with ICIMOD in Kathmandu, hopes that the recommendations will help policymakers to shift from a business-as-usual model to governance that makes integrated water management ecologically and economically sustainable -- and socially just.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710124/639057b29c7e80680e0ce16bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="912">Governing the ‘Water Tower of Asia’The Case for a System of Integrated Knowledge for the Hindu Kush HimalayaObserver Research Foundation, New Delhi. 2022119 pages<a href="http://www.orfonline.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.orfonline.org&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1667905031028000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Qd3qkodhO3IewHU3JI_WE">www.orfonline.org</a>Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/review/government-for-the-future/">Government for the future</a>, Kunda Dixit

Kunda Dixit

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It’s sink or swim for the Himalaya

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d088b9c7e80680e0a6022jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="600"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d088e9c7e80680e0a6023jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="451" height="400">Climate change, pollution, and lack of infrastructure restrict water access in Nepal. Madhav Belbase, retired Secretary of the Ministry of Water Supply, who pioneered inter-basin water transfer and was involved with <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Melamchi Project</a>, speaks about water resource management in Nepal.Excerpts from interview:Nepali Times: Drawing on your vast experience in the water management sector, how do you think water is seen in Nepal?Madhav Belbase: There is a popular misconception among many Nepali people that Nepal is the second most water-rich country in the world. This is added to a narrative that if you have a resource in abundance, you do not need to manage it. But it’s not true.Discourses on water management in Nepal are dominated by hydropower production and often neglect the other uses of water. Water management lacks integration. Rivers in Nepal are often diverted at multiple points along their stretches, affecting the other existing and potential uses of water.Because of the hyper-focus on water for energy production, irrigation, water supply, the environment, and the cultural and social aspects of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/too-little-too-much-or-too-polluted/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">water resources management</a> have been neglected. This wasn’t always the case. Nepal has a rich history of traditional water management techniques that took advantage of the country’s natural resources and topography. If energy is the focus of today’s water infrastructure, food production was the focus of these traditional systems, ensuring food security for decades. Unfortunately, such traditional knowledge has given way to a more technocratic approach that views water as a commodity.What is the long-term viability of the Melamchi Water Supply Project  considering the growing stress on freshwater supplies?<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-water-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate change</a> is already impacting rainfall patterns in Nepal. We used to have downpours in January and February, but now winter rainfall is becoming increasingly precarious. Even in the monsoon, rainfall patterns have completely changed. The intensity of precipitation is rising, which creates larger runoffs and landslides, and lower infiltration. At the same time, heavy downpours in the winter months seem to be disappearing, impacting on the distribution of water. Although the total amount of rain has not changed a lot, when we need water, we don’t have it. When the rain does come, we seem to be getting too much of it.The Melamchi Water Supply Project is meant to be a long-term solution to address water shortage in the Kathmandu Valley. However, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Melamchi river</a> itself is snow-fed and may get less water due to climate change. But we can safeguard ourselves from the worst-case scenario through the development of water storage projects within or just outside the valley. Water storage projects and inter-basin water transfer projects can balance water availability. This can be done by transferring water from surfeit to deficit basins. Water storage can either be done through constructing large-scale reservoirs and dams, or small-scale ponds and household level reservoirs and even rainwater harvesting. Dams are critical for the long-term sustainability of water management and irrigation in Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d088f9c7e80680e0a6024jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption>Photo: SAGLO SAMAJ</figcaption></figure>Was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the flood on the Melamchi in June</a> anticipated as a once-in-100 years type event?Yes, the headworks of the Melamchi project were designed with 100-year floods in mind. To ensure adequate protection, the project includes energy dissipation devices and safety mechanisms. The structures have been constructed to minimise abrasion due to flowing debris and bed loads. They are designed to withstand the worst possible events with a 100 year return period. However, an event can occur which is even more intense.What are Nepal’s opportunities and challenges for transboundary water cooperation with other riparian countries?About 40% of the annual flow and 70% of dry season flows of the Ganges in India originate from Nepal’s rivers. The Ganges basin is home to about 500 million people, which can in itself explain the importance of Nepal’s rivers for people living in northern India. Floods during the monsoon and a lack of adequate water for agriculture in the dry season are the two major issues there. Obviously, the construction of storage projects in Nepal’s territory to regulate river flow could solve both problems in India to a great extent. However, bilateral cooperation between the two countries has been a bit bumpy in the past. In the 1950s both countries signed two treaties on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-kosis-sorrow-and-scope/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Kosi</a> and Gandaki which was greeted with huge dissatisfaction among Nepalis. The perception among Nepalis is that both the treaties yield fewer benefits in comparison to the problems they create for the residents of areas where infrastructure is constructed.Having said that, there are many opportunities for cooperation with India, but we must also safeguard Nepal’s interests. If reservoirs are to be built in Nepal to resolve the problems related to flood and water scarcity in the dry season, the pricing of the impounded water must be judicially determined for win-win cooperation between the two countries.China upstream also shares our rivers. Nepal’s main concern with Chinese water relations is the sharing of flood and rainfall data. Because precipitation and weather events in China affect Nepal’s rivers downstream, better cooperation is needed to properly manage transboundary water risks. This type of data sharing is already happening with India, which has a greater interest in being Nepal’s downstream neighbour.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08929c7e80680e0a6025jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1920" height="1080"><figcaption>Photo: SAGLO SAMAJ</figcaption></figure>Last month, China sent a warning that the Tama Kosi river was dammed due to a large landslide, upstream from the 465MW Upper Tama Kosi project. What are your thoughts on a single hydropower project having such a large proportion of the national hydropower generation?Firstly, given the geology and steep slopes of the mountain as well as intense rainfall that occurs in Nepal, the structures we build on the rivers <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">are always vulnerable</a>. It is often difficult to predict the worst-case scenario flood. There are computer models to estimate near to actual situations, however, how accurately we provide the input data largely determines how closely we can predict the flows. Due to climate change, this type of prediction has become more and more difficult. The Tama Kosi headworks are designed to weather a flood with a 1,000 year return period, including a glacial lake outburst flood, meaning the headworks are designed to withstand a flood so intense it is only predicted to occur once every 1,000 years. This level of risk planning is common practice, and would normally be safe for the typical worst-case conditions.Secondly, Nepal’s per capita electricity consumption is very low, about 300 kWh. As the country progresses, the per capita consumption grows, and you need to produce more electricity. In such a situation, a 456 MW project like Tamakoshi is not actually that big, and we will have similar projects distributed all over the country. However, for the present condition of the country, when a single project generates about one-third of electricity, there is always the risk of electricity shortages due to an unprecedented natural disaster in the Tama Kosi basin.What do you see as the most important issue that needs to be tackled when it comes to water management in Nepal?Water is a finite resource, and there is increasing stress on water resources. Our attitudes of abundance and overuse are risky, and we must uphold a sustainable limit to water uses to protect this precious resource for future generations. Nepal also needs to explore the possibilities of reusing and recycling water. Young people need to realise the need to limit water use as well as population growth to achieve an optimum sustainable level of consumption. Pollution of our available freshwater resources is another major issue that must be understood and addressed at the individual level.Experts from longer interview with the <a href="https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/post/a-policy-perspective-on-water-management-in-nepal-interview-with-madhav-belbase" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalayanwaterproject.org/post/a-policy-perspective-on-water-management-in-nepal-interview-with-madhav-belbase&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1627356167931000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE-g4qtOraO59PQP3LQ5lp0VsP43g">Geopolitics and Ecology of Himalayan Water</a>.

Nepal needs to plan for plenty and scarcity of water

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e569c7e80680e04fcadjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Pic: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>In January 2018, Cape Town faced the possibility of executing a ‘Day Zero’ water plan: the city’s residents would have to queue daily for rationed municipal water supply. The reservoirs that served the city were almost empty. Fortunately, rains and lowered water use helped avert the crisis. A year later, Chennai, India’s sixth largest city, came near to Day Zero, too. Last minute rains again eased the emergency.In 2015, Chennai faced devastating floods. How could a region that was submerged four years earlier suffer such a serious water crisis? Despite <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">floods</a> and droughts becoming a regular feature of South Asia’s climate, none of our governments have learnt lessons to conserve, <a href="#967 July 5dataews.php?id=17425" target="_blank" rel="noopener">harvest and store</a> water. Misuse and inefficiency are high, and precious water is blatantly abused.Urbanisation, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/pokharas-shrinking-lakes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">encroachment of lakes</a>, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18976#.XR3p0-szaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wetlands</a>, ponds, and open spaces that served as flood buffers have made inundation worse on one hand, while depleting natural storage systems at a time when water runs out like now. As Chennai expanded with new industries and IT-led growth, the wetlands were converted into housing.In January 1995, 40 hydro-geologists, social scientists, water analysts, economists, political scientists and agriculturalists had gathered in Chennai to discuss the political economy of water in South Asia. The conference, convened by the US Social Science Research Council, had concluded that relatively wealthy middle class urban domestic users appeared to have top priority over water, industries get next priority, irrigation users are next and rural domestic water users and the urban poor are at the bottom of the rung.Twenty-five years later, nothing seems to have changed. In fact, this <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Melamchi-water-not-enough-for-everyone,3899" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hierarchy of access to water</a> is now even more entrenched, and continues to promote the transfer of pumped water from rural to urban areas. Extraction rates <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exceed recharge and groundwater storage</a> is gradually depleted.Water problems in India, Nepal and the rest of the subcontinent are a result of a complex interaction among urbanization, agriculture, industries, changing water use, and impact of the climate crisis on  precipitation, rising temperature and humidity. By 2030, 40% of South Asia’s population will be living in cities. Urban settlements require more water supply in concentrated areas. Rapid urbanisation and the increases in demand bring new challenges as higher income families use more water to meet sanitary functions producing more waste water.The water challenges in Nepal is no different. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Himalayan glaciers and snowpacks are melting faster</a>, the springs in the mid-mountains are going dry at an alarming rate while <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/water-table-of-kathmandu-valley-falling-fast-recharge-to-replenish,4100" target="_blank" rel="noopener">groundwater levels are receding</a> in Nepal’s bhabar, Tarai and across the border in India. Collectively these changes will lower base flows with profound implications for water security across the Indo-Gangetic basin.The current crisis is an outcome of the relentless pursuit of a water development and management model that evolved in an era before the climate emergency. It assumed the unlimited availability of water and focused on supply side solutions, without heeding to demand management and improving water governance. This model has dealt with rainfall, river and groundwater separately, neglecting the water cycle and its intrinsic function in nature. This fragmented approach continues.This water management model is not appropriate to deal with the water emergency. We need to change our approach to adapt to monsoon rains becoming more erratic, as they have this year.  Innovative rainwater harvesting practices, promoting a judicious mix of surface and groundwater sources, and managing increasing water demands is the way to go. The Chennai crisis this year will be replicated in Delhi, Patna and Kathmandu.And it is not the quantity of water that is a problem, the poor quality of available water is an equally serious challenge that needs to be solved with low-cost filtration systems for hundreds of millions of underserved families in the region. Disposal of human waste using treated clean water, in particular, needs to be systematically replaced. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/getting-our-shit-together/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Untreated sewage pollutes freshwater sources</a> and reduces available supplies. Already dysfunctional water treatment plants significantly push up treatment costs.Solutions must be based on larger societal commitment achieved through regular consultation between individuals, households, the community, the market and the state about water science, supply options, reduced use, and water conservation, and fundamentally re-crafting the institutions that govern and allocate water. Only this can potentially usher in a people-centered water stewardship and management that will include preservation of open spaces, water bodies and aquatic beings.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal and the region.

Where is the monsoon this year?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ9Za5QDkvY&amp;feature=youtu.beIntroduction:<a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Kailas-Range">Mount Kailash</a> in southwestern Tibet is the source of some of the largest rivers in Asia: the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Brahmaputra-River#ref495769">Brahmaputra</a>, the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Sutlej-River">Sutlej</a>, the Indus and the Karnali. Revered as one of the most holy places by Hindus, Buddhists, Bons and Jains, Kailash is a place many millions desire to visit before they die but only thousands make it every year due to its inaccessibility. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-wellbeing-of-the-wilderness/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Karnali</a> is the longest river of Nepal, flowing from the north to south through deep gorges to the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, where it meets the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganges">Ganga</a>. It is called the Ghaghara in India—the largest tributary of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganges">Ganga </a>by volume.Read also: Part 2: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali</a> In Tibet, the Karnali is called <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/1787863?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Mapcha Khambab</a>, which means ‘the river that originates from the peacock’s mouth’. Little is known about the exact source of the Karnali. <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">thethirdpole.net</a>’s Nepal Editor Ramesh Bhushal and photographer Nabin Baral travelled with a team of scientists to locate the river’s source and follow it from Tibet to its confluence with the Ganga in India. As part of the first scientific expedition of its kind, they travelled 1,100 kilometres over six weeks by jeep, raft and on foot through some of the most remote areas of the Himalayas. Part of the massive infrastructure development underway in the Himalaya, preparations are on to dam the Upper Karnali in Nepal for a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13703#.XDR9IVUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hydropower project</a> – the first dam on Nepal’s last free flowing river. The river is already under high stress from floods and erosion in India’s Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. All this is exacerbated by climate change. The challenges ahead are clear, but unpredictable in scale.In this five part series we explore the environmental and economic changes transforming the river system, and the challenges facing people living along its banks.  <iframe src="https://uploads.knightlab.com/storymapjs/a061279c459ca9ba4e1ab77c0cc67bf1/faith-to-reality-a-journey-down-the-karnali-river-from-tibet-to-india/draft.html" frameborder="0" width="100%" height="500"></iframe> StoryMap: RAMESH BHUSHALPart ILiving in fear of floodsTibet’s development boom has left downstream Nepal more vulnerable to floods and dam collapsePreparing soup for her grandson under a dim solar powered bulb, 50-year-old Pema Angmo explained how frightening life is on the bank of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghaghara">Karnali</a> river in western Nepal’s <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hilsa,_Nepal">Hilsa</a> village, on the border of Tibet. Large embankments protect the huge immigration office and villages in Tibet, but Nepalis on the other bank are left without any protection from floods in place. “I tell my relatives in Tibet that the embankments protect you, but the gods protect us Nepalis,” she smiled. About two decades ago, she started the first lodge on the flood plains of the Karnali River, which originates about 80km northwest in Tibet. Now there are dozens of guest houses. This small town is the last stop in Nepal for pilgrims visiting <a href="https://www.britannica.com/place/Kailas-Range">Mount Kailash</a>. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21d29c7e80680e04175bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Hilsa: Hilsa is a small seasonal town in Nepal- Tibet border where the Mapchakhambab river becomes Karnali. Most of the people have hotel business as the pilgirms and tourists especially from India use this route to go to Mount Kailash. During the winter the hoteliers shut down and move down to lower elevation as it snows thick and then return back in March/ April once the tourist season starts and stay till September/ October. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>The scale of potential flood threats along the Karnali River is clear from the large embankments constructed in the traditional trading hub of Burang (Taklakot) in China, 30km northwest of Hilsa. The Mapcha Khambab becomes the Karnali once it enters Nepal.Read also: Part 3: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate denial in the Himalaya</a>Part 4: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dancing-with-the-river/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dancing with the river</a>Part 5: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Karnali portrait </a>Born in Tibet, Pema fell in love with a Nepali from Hepka village in Humla and they married 30 years ago. In that time, Tibet has seen unprecedented development, but Nepal has remained the same. Blacktopped roads have made road travel much easier in Tibet, and many pilgrims, mostly from India, now flock to Hilsa in summer on small planes and helicopters from Nepalganj. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEt0H0r4UOU&amp;feature=youtu.beHindus believe Lord Shiva meditated on Mt Kailash, and some <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepalganj-gets-moving/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15,000 Indian pilgrims took this route this year</a>. The sound of helicopters wake us up every morning as they land and take off every few minutes near Pema’s hotel. While business is getting better, people are worried about how to protect their hard earned property from the floods and disasters that may come in future. “It took two decades to build these two buildings, but it won’t take a minute to destroy them if there is a big flood or a dam bursts upstream,” Pema added. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21d69c7e80680e04175cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Mount Kailash: Mount Kailash region in southwestern Tibet is the source of some of the largest rivers in Asia. Brahmaputra, Sutlej, Indus and Karnali/Ghaghara and orginate from east, west, north and south of the Kailash range.Kailash is revered as the holy place by Hindus, Buddhist, Bons and Jains. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21da9c7e80680e04175djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Mansarovar lake (God’s lake) south of Mount Kailash in Tibet, China. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>The Chinese have built a hydropower dam a few kilometres upstream on the Karnali. This has improved the lives of Tibetans by bringing electricity, but increased fear among the Nepalis living next to the border. There is hardly any communication between local people and the Chinese authorities, and Nepali officials do not listen to them. “We face serious problems, but the leaders in Kathmandu do not losten to us,” said Amar Lama, another lodge owner in HIlsa.Over the past years, Hilsa has welcomed the prime minister and other leaders and pleaded for electricity. Two years ago Pushpa Kamal Dahal inaugurated a bridge across the Karnali to Tibet, and promised to <a href="http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2016-12-20/pm-opens-hilsa-bridge.html">send a team of experts</a> for a hydropower project in Nepal on a tributary of the Karnali River. There is no sign work has started. “Prime ministers and ministers fly here, make promises and go to Kailash with their family. Once they fly back, they forget everything. I am really angry, you know, please tell them if you meet them,” Pema Angmo said. Out of 77 districts of Nepal, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/life-and-livelihood-in-remote-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Humla is the last one without a road</a>. After a couple of weeks walking along the river to the south, we met Mahendra Bahadur Shahi, the Chief Minister of Karnali province and asked him if there were any plans to address the problems people face. He talked about a railway to China, but not about roads, embankments or electricity.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21dd9c7e80680e04175ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1061">Map: STEFANO WROBLESKI“We are talking with the Chinese about a railway link,” Shahi said. “We have had a few rounds of bilateral talks in past few months.” Hilsa also faces landslide risk. “We are trapped but we can’t leave this place,” adds Pema, who built her lodge from a couple of tents three decades ago. Now she has three buildings with about 50 rooms. “This is the only property we have and it’s our future but it’s at risk,” she says.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21e09c7e80680e04175fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Constructions in Burang on the bank of Karanali River. The city is the capital of Burang county and rapdigly growing which is protected by huge embankments. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>In 2012 a landslide killed four people in a single family, including a mother and children, in the town. “It looks beautiful now, but the mountains are hard to live in,” she says.Apart from floods and landslides, studies warn that a mega earthquake is long overdue in Nepal’s western region.  <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21e39c7e80680e041760jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Taklakot/Purang/ Burang: Popularly known in Nepal as Taklakot, it is the largest city along the Mapchakhambab river before entering Nepal. The trade hub for Nepalis from Humla and Darchula in Nepal and Indians from Dharchula. It is the capital of Burang County. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>People in Hilsa used to drink water from the Karnali in the past but with the development boom in Burang, this is no longer safe. “Now it is polluted by sewage upstream,” Pema said. Now, Hilsa brings water from a nearby spring into their homes through pipes.Still shrouded in darkness, with no road connection or mobile network, Hilsa faces the challenge of too little development, and the contrast on the the other side of the river is stark.The story is jointly published by Nepali Times and <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole</a>. Subsequent instalments of this five-part series will appear from 8-11 January.

Faith to reality

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;

water-management