Trump’s Second Coming

It has been four days since Donald Trump officially re-entered the White House, and he has already signed executive orders and pardoned dozens of his storm troopers. The best thing you can say is that at least he keeps his promises.

America’s election is not just about the United States. The rest of the world does not vote for American presidents, but what they do and do not do has far-reaching consequences for the planet. Quitting the climate deal in the middle of the Los Angeles wildfire calamity, and dropping out of the World Health Organization (WHO) as the world prepares for the next pandemic is not even in America’s own self-interest.

The presence at the swearing in of tech billionaires, who were seated in front of Trump’s own cabinet picks, rammed home the point that America is now an oligarchy. The tech and business world have fallen in line, with global implications. Meta’s announcement that it will stop fact-checking on Facebook and Instagram will impact Nepali society and politics . 

Trump spoke with Chinese president Xi Jinping before his inauguration, and it seems to have been a meeting of minds between the two authoritarians: the TikTok ban was immediately halted. For all the bluster and brinkmanship, those threats against China appear to be just bargaining. 

Trump invited President Xi for his inauguration, who sent his deputy Han Zheng. India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar was also present. 

For Nepal, the impact of Trump’s second term will be governed by how US relations with India and China develop in the next five years. Having said that, the US Embassy in Kathmandu has always held importance beyond Nepal to serve as a Tibet listening-post. If the Trump-Xi bonhomie grows, it will affect US support for the Tibet freedom movement, and the Dalai Lama succession question.

On India, the Trump administration is expected to continue Joe Biden’s strategy of holding a slightly reluctant India in its Indo-Pacific embrace to counter China’s increasing economic and military influence in the region. 

Trump has not followed through on his threats of tariffs on Chinese imports from “day one”. This suggests a less hostile and more pragmatic approach towards Beijing. That did not mean he held back criticism of China in his speech: notably when he blamed China for being a big polluter, and not paying more to WHO. 

“The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity,” Trump said after announcing the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement and revoking the Biden administration’s EV mandate. 

It is true that China has become the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, although in per capita terms it is still much below the US. China also leads in global renewable energy efforts, it is the biggest manufacturer and exporter of EVs, and has made photovoltaics, lithium batteries and wind turbines affordable to the world.

One can dismiss territorial claims on Panama, Greenland and the ‘Gulf of America’ as deranged, but his “drill, baby, drill” and “frack away, Pennsylvania” all promise to keep America as the biggest producer of fossil fuels.  

As a consequence, America itself will see more intense hurricanes, coastal erosion, wildfires and weather extremes. But it will be countries like Nepal at the frontlines of the climate emergency that will pay the heaviest price. 

Last year was the warmest year on record as global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial level for the first time – that target was set to be met by 2050 in Paris ten years ago. Nepal has experienced its warmest January yet this year, and the wildfire season has started early.

Another direct impact on Nepalis will be Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants. The crackdown at the Mexican border will affect hundreds of Nepalis taking the backdoor routes to reach America. Stricter immigration will also affect tens of thousands of Nepalis who are currently in the US or are planning to go study there. 

Budget cuts of USAID for reproductive health, human rights and social welfare, and US withdrawal from being the largest donor of WHO will mean less funding for healthcare and the social sector in Nepal. 

Washington will further lose its moral high ground in Nepal on issues like transitional justice, human rights, democracy and press freedom. Nepal was already feeling less pressure from the West, and it is now steadily aligning itself with curbs in resurgent India and China. 

It will be even more hypocritical for the US to espouse freedom and democracy in the rest of the world after its refusal to call Israel out on its war crimes in Gaza. Trump will take credit for the Gaza ceasefire, and will lean on Ukraine to accept peace terms with Russia.

By the looks of it, Trump is just getting started. 

Shristi Karki