Jhapa-5 after its political earthquake

Jhapa today looks like the aftermath of a battlefield. Election posters and party flags droop along roads under a brooding overcast sky.

Yet, the mood is hopeful. This was the constituency where Nepal's history was made -- where a candidate promising a new future defeated one representing the old, failed ways.

Balendra Shah of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) scored a decisive win here with 68,348 votes, defeating four-time former prime minister K P Oli of the UML who got only 18,734 votes. 

The result caps a nationwide surge by the RSP, which is set to secure more than a two-thirds majority in the lower house of Parliament, signalling a fundamental realignment in Nepali politics away from traditional party structures toward personality-driven leadership.

The Jhapa-5 victory marks a moment when Nepal’s political centre of gravity shifted from cadre-based party machinery to a youth-backed reform movement centred on former Kathmandu mayor Balendra Shah. For decades, Nepali elections have been powered by cadre-based party structures. 

The UML enlisted 400 out of 450 voters of Barhasudi village in Gauriganj Rural Municipality 4 in a ceremony attended by K P Oli himself. However, the outcome showed the limited effectiveness of traditional structures in the current political environment, which favours digital outreach, youth networks, and personality-driven support.

A district-level UML cadre in Jhapa, who asked not to be named, admitted the limitations of traditional organisation: “We have the organisation down to every ward, but this time that did not matter as much. Voters were hostile during door-to-door campaigning. People were voting for Balen as a person, not for a party. Our cadres did their work, but the voter mood had changed.”

Traditional party loyalty alone may no longer be sufficient to secure electoral victory in Nepal. The Nepali Congress (NC) positioned Gagan Thapa as its prime-ministerial face, while the UML continued to campaign around Oli. 

“What guaranteed the RSP’s success is that it had established itself as an alternative while positioning Balen Shah as the alternative for the PM post,” explains political analyst Bishnu Sapkota. Even a renewed NC under Gagan Thapa was burdened by the baggage of old politics because technically his party was only half-new. 

Sapkota notes that Sher Bahadur Deuba had already sanctioned the party's PR list and other electoral processes; consequently, people saw nothing new in the Gagan-led NC because he had no time to lead it before the elections. 

The parliamentary system does not allow voters to directly elect the prime minister, yet this election resembled a presidential-style contest centred on Balendra Shah. 

The RSP’s campaign messaging framed the vote as a mandate to make Balendra Shah prime minister, effectively turning parliamentary ballots into a referendum on his leadership. The strategy proved effective: with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, Shah now has the numbers to lead the country for five years. 

Nepal has drifted off unstable coalition-dominated politics. For many voters here, the logic was straightforward: elect enough RSP candidates and Shah becomes prime minister. 

“I voted for Balen because I wanted the RSP to form a majority government and him to lead it,” says Jhapa-5 voter Ranjit Subedi. Shah attracted cadre-like loyalty without cadres, a follower base driven more by sentiment and aspiration than by party machinery. 

Sapkota notes that personality-based politics is fairly new: “Rabi Lamichhane started this trend during the 2022 election as his popularity made the RSP the 4th largest party in Parliament last time. 

Balen, on the other hand, has maintained an enigmatic aura that has captivated people to an extent that they do not enquire about his vision, which comes with its own risk of public disappointment if he fails to deliver.”

With a two-thirds majority, Shah has the parliamentary numbers for government stability, a rare achievement in Nepal coalition-dominated politics. Yet whether he can maintain the RSP’s unity and the youth movement’s enthusiasm for five years remains to be seen. 

Sapkota warns: “This level of public support empowers a leader, as this is stronger than a mere formal electoral mandate, but it comes with the risk of the system being overridden by a superman-like figure.”

It is rare in the world and in Nepal that two top leaders compete in the same constituency. The only other example was back in 1991, when Madan Bhandari ran and won the seat in Kathmandu-5 against then Prime Minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai. In Shah’s case, his bold decision to challenge K P Oli, as the face of the old establishment in his stronghold catapulted him to victory. 

The Jhapa-5 victory represents more than a symbolic contest between Nepal’s political establishment and a rising, youth-backed reform movement. Following the state killing of GenZ protestors on 8 September, Oli’s political authority eroded fundamentally. 

Damak-based journalist Sujan Gautam witnessed Oli’s declining popularity here post-September: “He would have lost to some other strong figure too.” 

An judicial investigation committee led by Gauri Bahadur Karki formed to investigate the violence, deaths, and property damage on 8-9 September submitted its 900-plus page report to the interim government on Sunday. The report is said to recommend action against those found responsible, including Oli and members of his cabinet and security apparatus.

Santosh Dhimal, a GenZ voter from Damak, says: “K P Oli was not suitable to be our leader because he lied after ordering the shooting of people my age who were peacefully protesting.”

Prime Minister Sushila Karki has said her government will publish the main conclusions after reviewing it with the home ministry and cabinet. 

Oli’s broader vulnerability here lay not just in the state’s response to GenZ protests, but also in representing an old political class that was cadre-heavy and ideologically bankrupt. Political analyst Bishnu Sapkota says, “Oli was the most visible face of the old corrupt political culture that Nepalis had grown to detest.”

This election result is not merely a party winning by a landslide, but a departure from the type of political culture that the old parties represented. Even if RSP does not deliver, society has moved on. The question is whether the 2026 election is a genuine transition, or merely a pendulum swing before the next disillusionment sets in.

Another Jhapa-5 constituent Ranjit Subedi acknowledged Oli’s historical contribution, but added: “A leader must know when to retire gracefully. He has done a lot for Jhapa-5 and the country during the Indian blockade but his time is over now.”