In 2024, renewables accounted for the largest share of growth in global energy supply. For the first time, solar and wind generation exceeded coal and gas in the European Union. In the United States, solar and wind reached 16%, overtaking coal. In China, solar and wind generated about 20% of total power. More than 51% of India’s total installed electricity capacity now comes from non-fossil fuel sources.&nbsp; Together, these shifts point to a system in transition at a time when the world is once again confronting a global energy crisis due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But this is not an isolated disruption — it is a structural signal reminding us that fossil fuel dependence is not only environmentally unsustainable, but also economically and geopolitically precarious. History shows that crises can be turning points. They disrupt inertia, challenge established systems, and open space for transformation.&nbsp; Many countries are responding to the war by accelerating their energy transitions. In <a href="https://asianinsiders.com/2026/03/31/asia-energy-transition-plans-oil-crisis/" target="_blank">Asia</a>, India, Indonesia and Vietnam are scaling up renewables and electric mobility, while also exploring storage and grid upgrades. China continues to lead globally in solar and wind expansion, rapidly increasing domestic capacity to reduce exposure to external shocks. Japan and South Korea are investing in hydrogen, offshore wind and next-generation energy systems. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/16/south-korea-solar-power-renewables-revolution" target="_blank">South Korea</a> is expanding community-based solar programs, linking clean energy with local development and economic benefits. In Europe, the response has been both immediate and strategic. The <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/topics/energy/repowereu_en" target="_blank">European Union’s REPowerEU plan</a> aims to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels while accelerating renewables, improving efficiency, and diversifying supply. Germany, Spain, and Denmark are expanding wind and solar at scale, with renewables increasingly outcompeting fossil fuels. Chile is advancing solar and green hydrogen, Brazil is strengthening its renewable-based power system, and South Africa is opening space for private renewable investment to address power shortages. Efforts are underway even in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/15/cuba-beat-us-energy-blockade-investment-renewables" target="_blank">Cuba to scale renewables</a> to reduce reliance on imported fuels. Energy security and climate action are no longer competing priorities, they are deeply aligned. Renewable energy offers not just emissions reduction, but independence from volatile global markets. The question is no longer whether the transition will happen, but how quickly it can scale. The current crisis is also reshaping global climate diplomacy. Initiatives such as the <a href="https://transitionawayconference.com/" target="_blank">Santa Marta Conference</a>, bringing together countries committed to accelerating the fossil fuel transition, signal growing political momentum for systemic change. These efforts reflect increasing frustration with slow progress and a recognition that incremental change is no longer sufficient. This aligns with broader developments under the Paris Agreement. The outcome of the first Global Stocktake marked a historic shift in global consensus, reaffirming that the 1.5°C goal requires not just emissions reduction, but a fundamental transformation of energy systems. The COP30 Presidency in Brazil has further championed this by advancing roadmaps for transitioning away from fossil fuels and scaling up clean energy deployment. It serves as a catalyst to translate global commitments into practical pathways, linking ambition with implementation. NEPAL'S EXAMPLE  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260426090444_cb2659cf00a284ab7f6578963a4fed861133cfbb0141c6d13bb779a42f9f50aa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260426090444_cb2659cf00a284ab7f6578963a4fed861133cfbb0141c6d13bb779a42f9f50aa" data-rendition-name="original" width="906" height="460" loading="lazy" alt="energy trandition due to West Asia conflict"> </figure>  Despite rising global prices, Nepal’s overall spending on fuel imports has declined for the last four consecutive years, driven by the expansion of hydropower, increased electrification, growing adoption of electric vehicles (page 5) and electric cooking, and policy measures aligned with Nepal’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Together, these efforts are beginning to reshape the country’s energy landscape. Also, from last fiscal year the country is &nbsp;exporting clean hydro electricity. Nepal’s experience shows that transitions do not always require massive technological breakthroughs. It often begins with incremental changes, better policies, targeted investments and shifts in behaviour. It demonstrates that even in the face of structural challenges, it is possible to reduce fossil fuel dependence while advancing development goals. Too often, short-term responses to crises, such as fuel subsidies or increased fossil fuel production, undermine long-term goals. Rather than increasing dependence on fossil fuel, <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/energy-prices-are-spiking-again_a68e5c37-en/full-report.html" target="_blank">investments should focus on diversification</a>, efficiency and clean energy systems. The transition is not a question of feasibility, but of priorities. Choices made today will shape the future for decades to come.&nbsp; We can choose to treat this as a temporary disruption, patching up the system and returning to business as usual. Or we can recognise it as a turning point, an opportunity to accelerate the transition to a more sustainable, resilient and equitable energy system. What is needed now is the will to act and invest because every crisis holds the seeds of a new beginning. Manjeet Dhakal is the Head of the LDC Support Team at Climate Analytics and Director for Climate Analytics South Asia.

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

thumbnail

viewImage

Guest Editorial

Silver lining in war clouds

Even 11 years later, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/disaster-journalism">25 April 2015</a> is etched into the psyche of every Nepali who lived through it.&nbsp;
Some remember the first crack on the walls. Others recall the low, deep rumbling. Many flash back to the silence that followed, when phone lines were jammed, and how the time stood still between aftershocks.&nbsp;
Many remember waiting for news, for help, for certainty that never came. April 25 did not just shake buildings, it exposed some harsh realities of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/disastrous-preparedness">Nepal's disaster management system</a>.&nbsp;
Disasters in Nepal are not isolated events, they are what medicine would call an 'acute on chronic' crisis. They reveal the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/it-better-be-better-next-time">deeper, long-standing weaknesses</a>: in our road network, our hospitals, governance, and most critically, our lack of preparedness.&nbsp;
Nearly 10,000 lives were lost, entire districts were flattened, thousands of livestock and homes were lost. While attention was drawn to Kathmandu Valley and surrounding areas, most of the devastation was in hard to reach rural areas.
The first responders were not professionals. They were our neighbours who dug through rubble with bare hands. They were mothers who pulled children from collapsed homes. They were communities who organised themselves without training, without equipment, without formal leadership structures.&nbsp;
The first 48-72 hours after a disaster determines who lives and who dies. In Nepal, those hours often pass before outside help can arrive, especially in areas where geography and infrastructure delay response.&nbsp;
If 2015 is too far back to remember, let us look at the 2023 Jajarkot earthquake: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/poverty-killed-a-mother-not-the-quake">a pregnant woman dying from the cold</a>, supplies bottlenecked in district offices instead of reaching villages, and rubble cleared days later.
All of this means that survival depends on communities. And yet, despite having disaster response frameworks on paper, there was no meaningful implementation of community-level preparedness in 2015.&nbsp;
Plans spoke of training, simulations, and local capacity building, but these were not translated into action where they were needed the most. When the earthquake struck, communities responded with courage and improvisation despite their own losses.
But now we have evidence that things can be different. In places like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/devolution-for-development">Ramaroshan village in Achham district</a>, community responders have been trained to recognise emergencies, control bleeding, splint fractures, and stabilise patients after road accidents and falls. They are showing us that when communities are equipped, they can deliver emergency care.&nbsp;
This is crucial not only during disasters but every single day. A bus goes off the road, a child is injured, a woman falls from a tree, a landslide cuts off access, and so on. In these moments, the difference between life and death is often what happens before a patient reaches a hospital.&nbsp;
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-back-not-better-after-2015-kxble6c6">Preparedness</a> is not just about earthquakes. It is about building a system that works during everyday mishaps that quietly define our health outcomes.&nbsp;
Sooner or later, there will be another earthquake in Nepal. It is a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/past-disasters-foretold">geological certainty</a>. The 2015 disaster did not release all the energy and there has not been a major quake in western Nepal in over 500 years.&nbsp;
Besides, we also have to be prepared for floods, landslides, and fires, all of them made worse by the climate crisis.&nbsp;
Community-based responses should not be treated as a backup plan, we need to scale it up. We must build local disaster leadership, conduct real drills, and equip communities with basic tools, first aid, and communication systems.&nbsp;
After a disaster event, people also need reassurance that they have not been abandoned, that their lives matter whether they live in Kathmandu or Jajarkot, and that the system sees them. Because when communities feel neglected long enough, the consequences are not only humanitarian but political.
Rural neglect, lack of opportunity, and absence of state presence have contributed to instability and conflict in the past. The Maoist armed insurgency is an example.&nbsp;
Disasters do not create these fractures, but they deepen them. Hence, preparedness is not just about saving lives, it is also about building trust in a state.
25 April should be a day of remembrance, a day where we hold ourselves accountable. It should also be a day of possibility. Disasters, painful as they are, create opportunities for countries to change their trajectory.&nbsp;
The 2015 earthquake was one such moment. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/demographics-of-disaster-in-nepal-quake">Jajarkot was another reminder</a>. We cannot keep letting these moments pass.
This is a call to our new government to invest in systems that start from the ground up, and to take what has worked in places like Achham and scale it nationally. The government has a real opportunity to build communities, not just for them.
This is also a reminder to communities that preparedness is not a privilege, but a right. As we mark the 2015 disaster and mourn the lives lost, we should honour them through action, through real preparedness.&nbsp;
The next disaster is just waiting to happen, and when it does, it will once again test us and our systems. We can either choose to confront it the way we did in 2015 or with communities that are trained, equipped, connected, and ready.
25 April is not over. But our preparedness will vastly differentiate the outcome. &nbsp;
Ramu Kharel is an emergency medicine specialist and Assistant Professor at Brown University in the USA. Hefounded the non-profit <a href="http://www.hapsaglobe.org/" target="_blank">HAPSA Nepal</a> that works to strengthen community based emergency and trauma care in Nepal.

Opinion

25 April is not over

EVs in Nepal have come a long way since the micro-segment Reva was first introduced in the early 2000s with 2-seat occupancy and giving no more than 80km of range.&nbsp; Mahindra acquired Reva and introduced the upgraded e2O which was well-suited for city driving, but alas they are no longer made. Now, <a href="https://youtu.be/nXFjV_YJiZg?si=B5N4PB2Exoup6JV4" target="_blank">Mahindra’s latest flagship the BE6 </a>crossover EV is a whole new breed, evolving leaps and bounds with its jet fighter-inspired cockpit design and a boatload of futuristic tech. But with such an impressive history of EVs in Nepal and the whole range of models to choose from, it seems we are still addicted to fossil fuels. Not everyone has, or wants, to make the transition to battery-powered locomotion just yet.&nbsp; Even though range anxiety may not be as much of an issue anymore, drivers may not want to wait a whole hour for a fast DC charge to 80% on their EVs, when a quick 5-minute pit stop at a gas station allows them to hit the highway again quickly.&nbsp; But Nepal was second only to Norway last year in the proportion of new cars being battery-powered. And this has to some extent cushioned us from the full impact of the fallout on fuel prices due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The uptake of EVs in Nepal was a direct result of tax rebates. As Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle prepares the annual budget, it could be an opportunity to extend tax breaks to public vehicles to further reduce Nepal’s petroleum import bill. Even if the war ends and the strait is opened to tanker traffic, however, energy experts say it will take months for oil prices to stabilise. This means petrol in Kathmandu will stay at Rs219/l or thereabouts for some time yet. It was only Rs160/l before the war. Nepal is 100% reliant on imported fuel from India, which in turn relies mostly on imports from the Gulf states. We are directly affected by the escalating conflict and geopolitical tension. Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) usually <a href="https://noc.org.np/retailprice" target="_blank">publishes</a> a new fuel price every 15 days, for petrol, diesel and kerosene at the beginning, and another at the middle of the English month.&nbsp; But departing from the 15-day rule, NOC has made large out-of-schedule overnight revisions to the fuel prices in the pst month to accommodate global fuel fluctuations. The two-day weekend may help, but the higher prices have already forced consumers to travel less. There are rumours that if supplies from India are further constrained, the government may implement an even/odd number plate rule. Driven by relentlessly rising fuel prices, the willingness to transition to electric mobility, whether two-wheelers or four-wheelers, has never been higher. Your columnist has also observed a surge in inquiries from both new and old EV owners, reflecting a clear shift in consumer sentiment, and recently took out the BYD Atto 2 on a test drive (review below). This growing demand for EVs has its own set of challenges. Global supply chains are already under severe strain, and as demand for electric vehicles accelerates worldwide, production bottlenecks are inevitable.&nbsp; The question then arises: will Nepal have sufficient EV stock to meet this surge, or will consumers be faced with longer waiting periods and limited choices? For the time being, Nepalis must look beyond quick fixes and begin actively reducing fuel dependency in more ways. While switching to EVs offers an immediate alternative, it is not a complete solution.&nbsp; The current oil shock is not just about fuel, but about the future economic model this country will have to adapt to.&nbsp; <h2>Versatile e-vehicle</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260421130444_0ad98a38fd48172bec5d5e83005b0a2f6c06ef5f4d6672d27777b429a70a3848.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260421130444_0ad98a38fd48172bec5d5e83005b0a2f6c06ef5f4d6672d27777b429a70a3848" data-rendition-name="original" width="1784" height="1004" loading="lazy" alt="BYD Atto 2"> </figure>  I got into the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRG23MQKPcY&amp;t=879s" target="_blank">BYD Atto 2 </a>knowing that it met almost all the requirements on my checklist:&nbsp; <ul> <li>Muscular-looking SUV design</li> <li>Decent size battery pack (51kWh Blade Battery) that gave over 300km range (345km WLTP claim)</li> <li>Powerful enough motor with good acceleration (100kW motor producing 290Nm torque)</li> <li>Healthy amount of features and space on the inside&nbsp;</li> <li>Above all, an abundance of ground clearance (200mm) greatly needed for our roads.&nbsp;</li> </ul> The cherry on top was that all this came at a sub Rs5 million price tag. But one nagging question on my mind was: will the Atto 2 drive as well in real life, as it sounded on the <a href="https://www.byd.com/np" target="_blank">BYD website</a>?&nbsp; Getting in, the almost all-black cabin felt premium. Shifting in my seat and turning on the seat ventilation with a push of the accelerator pedal, I found the vehicle had more pull than anticipated.&nbsp; The <a href="https://www.byd.com/np/car/atto2" target="_blank">Atto 2</a> turned out to be a jack of all trades, it had something for everyone. Whether you need to drive from Kathmandu to Nepalganj, rough it to West Rukum, or get stuck in Kathmandu traffic, this was one versatile vehicle. Arnav Upadhyay is a content creator who reviews automobiles and promotes road safety for his Nepali Times column, Drive Line. He is also on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@casuallyannoyeddriver">Youtube</a>, <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@casuallyannoyeddriver">Tiktok</a> and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/casuallyannoyeddriver/">IG</a> under the handle Casually Annoyed Driver.

Arnav Upadhyay

Drive Line

Petrol panic to plug-in promise

When Nepal decided to mark the annual National Yak Day on 20 April 2025, it celebrated an animal that has been the backstay of mountain livelihoods for centuries.&nbsp; The sure-footed yak is more than just an iconic bovine. It is the guardian of the high Himalaya and integral to the identity of pastoralist communities. Yaks provide a lifeline: hauling goods across treacherous trails, providing milk, butter and warm wool for clothing, and providing dung that serves as fertiliser and fuel.&nbsp; (In English, yak is used to refer to both the male and female, while in Himalayan languages it refers strictly to the male, while females are called dri or nak. A dzo or chauri is a crossbreed between a yak and a domestic cow.)  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130436_8d828e6e87963b6be7efbf6752f708d06ac026f8b212de382f24d6ce8e023da3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260420130436_8d828e6e87963b6be7efbf6752f708d06ac026f8b212de382f24d6ce8e023da3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1750" height="1313" loading="lazy" alt="Yak"> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  At above 3000m, where the air is thin and cold, yaks and chauri have made mountain agro-pastoralism coexist. This transhumance herding and livelihood system, practiced by the Sherpa, Tamang, Thakali, Rai, Limbu and other communities shapes pastoralist identities.&nbsp; The yak also holds deep cultural ties, often featuring in folklore and festivals. Their presence has led to a rich indigenous pastoral knowledge of the alpine ecology, embodying a unique harmony between people and nature. But despite their value and reverence, the animals and the customary practices around them are in peril. Nepal's yak population has plummeted from around 200,000 in the 1960s to just 53,000 today.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130436_6684dbdf0990c5f0a4dd8ac353f3ab3c803ad77d99f45b62ec4793ecbe9c55e0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260420130436_6684dbdf0990c5f0a4dd8ac353f3ab3c803ad77d99f45b62ec4793ecbe9c55e0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1920" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> <figcaption>Photos: FAO NEPAL</figcaption> </figure>  Climate change has led to the degradation of alpine pastures, increasing temperatures, while prolonged winter droughts and unseasonal snow have reduced nutritious pastures. Traditional grazing areas have shrunk, or claimed for other uses. Nepal’s highland youth are migrating to cities or abroad, leading to a decline in second-generation pastoralists as well as a loss of traditional knowledge in yak husbandry. Those who remain face rising losses from predators and disease outbreaks, compounded by scarce veterinary services.&nbsp; At present, fewer than 10,000 households across Nepal still rear yaks, endangering an important cultural heritage.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130432_7098ab71303f70ab82c665d1038da8bd28a173b08183d4ec1599021a1fcdffb5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260420130432_7098ab71303f70ab82c665d1038da8bd28a173b08183d4ec1599021a1fcdffb5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> </figure>  National Yak Day, therefore, marks an important step in Nepal’s effort to revitalise the yak economy, focusing national attention to its role in food security, livelihoods, ecology and culture.&nbsp; The UN's Food and Agricutlure Organization (FAO) in Nepal is also integrating yak development into its agricultural investment programs, market facilitation, and support for high-mountain communities.&nbsp; Yak herders from 25 districts across five provinces have formed a national federation, uniting to advocate for their needs from grazing rights and market accessibility to better veterinary and extension services.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130432_088d493721e598e01e5fed3b5cffaabf85f3267839b50358898edcc3403177c3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260420130432_088d493721e598e01e5fed3b5cffaabf85f3267839b50358898edcc3403177c3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> </figure>  National Yak Day has become more than symbolic: it has evolved into a collective platform to drive policy support and cooperative action to keep yak pastoralism alive. The conservation of Nepal’s yak populations is important for the rights, mobility, and the preservation of highland cultures, but it also presents an economic opportunity. The most effective way to sustain yak herding and retain the communities that depend on it is to make it a financially viable livelihood. What has long been practiced as a subsistence activity can, through innovation and value addition, evolve into a driver of economic growth and resilience for herding communities.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130436_1fa5a1b49c6171a7f6b1b89661f060c5fabaec8d3364e6bd0a2834f7e4acdca7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260420130436_1fa5a1b49c6171a7f6b1b89661f060c5fabaec8d3364e6bd0a2834f7e4acdca7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1920" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> </figure>  Yak-based products ranging from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-story-of-langtang-cheese">Himalayan yak cheese in Langtang</a> to churpi and yak wool already secure premium value in niche markets. With enhanced processing, improved cold-chain systems, stronger branding, and greater recognition of the collective rights of herding communities, these value chains hold considerable potential to further increase income. Herder-led homestays and tourism also presents promising avenues for diversification. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/langtang-emmentaler">yak herding </a>is inherently dependent on seasonal mobility across highland pastures, yet access to traditional grazing routes is becoming increasingly constrained, and land tenure arrangements remain insufficiently defined.&nbsp; The long-term viability of yak herding systems needs to be addressed. Access to rangelands and recognition of transhumance practices are not secured, the foundations of the yak economy will continue to erode.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130432_efc69e496af84a5904b3e101929e2a8124a02f525ac9cc137dbd303d6e0cb724.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20260420130432_efc69e496af84a5904b3e101929e2a8124a02f525ac9cc137dbd303d6e0cb724" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> </figure>  Revitalising this sector, therefore, requires more value chain investment and private sector coordination; it will also need policy reform and state support.&nbsp; Highland communities need pastoral grazing rights, and strengthened claims on the lands of which they have long been the custodians. Targeted subsidies, transport support, and tax exemptions for high-altitude enterprises can help offset the structural disadvantages of remoteness.&nbsp; With investment, Nepal can create green jobs, curb out-migration from mountain areas, and give young people a reason to carry forward a livelihood that is their heritage. The yak is a climate-resilient animal, and its economy could yield high returns across social, economic, and environmental dimensions.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130436_529793aac7a8497a9fefd35a054f256ee611ee2dad09d53a7ba9af91dbb7bec3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260420130436_529793aac7a8497a9fefd35a054f256ee611ee2dad09d53a7ba9af91dbb7bec3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1920" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> </figure>  The second annual National Yak Day on 20 April arrives as the world prepares for the UN’s International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists (IYRP) 2026, a global initiative to safeguard pastoralist communities and the fragile rangeland they nurture.&nbsp; By aligning National Yak Day with IYRP themes, Nepal has amplified its message and tapped international partnerships. The shared goal is the economic empowerment of yak-herding families. With secure livelihoods and a voice in policy, Nepal’s mountain pastoralists can continue as stewards of the high mountains, protecting nature as they have for generations. FAO is leading this momentous effort, calling for stronger support for pastoralists from the Andes to the Himalayas. Nepal’s yak herders have been the bedrock to food security, biodiversity conservation, and climate adaptation through their traditional livelihoods.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260420130436_3ed4e181a51ab8beef1dbd84e19d19040e7de39448a07fc4242971d9d69feea8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20260420130436_3ed4e181a51ab8beef1dbd84e19d19040e7de39448a07fc4242971d9d69feea8" data-rendition-name="original" width="1920" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="National Yak Day 2026"> </figure>  In Nepal, FAO has been working with the government and national partners to co-host a forum to strengthen Nepal’s Rangeland Policy, aiming to ensure herders have better access to pastures and support services. FAO Nepal is also engaged in the value chain and digital innovation to support yak pastoralists. National Yak Day 2026 is an opportunity to promote a development model that builds on, rather than replaces, traditional livelihoods. Supporting yaks and pastoralists is not just about preserving their past, it is a pragmatic approach to supporting climate-resilient mountain livelihoods.&nbsp; This means recognising pastoral mobility, securing grazing rights, investing in value chains, and ensuring highland communities are not sidelined in national development. The moment for Nepal to act is now by enabling policies, targeted investment, and greater recognition, yak herding can serve as a foundation for a future where economic opportunity, ecological sustainability, and cultural continuity are mutually strengthened for better livelihoods across Nepal’s mountain communities.&nbsp; Ken Shimizu has been the FAO Country Representative for Bhutan and Nepal since 2021.

Nepal’s yak economy

In a swift and decisive move, US forces abducted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife to the United States. The current government in Caracas has little choice but to largely submit to Washington’s dictates.&nbsp;
Trump’s motives for the war against Iran remain unclear, partly because the US president has cited various reasons: to finally destroy the Iranian nuclear program, to end the Iranian threat to the Middle East, to support the Iranian people, and to overthrow the terrible regime in Tehran. He remains vague about his reasoning and seems to make off the cuff suggestions for regime change.&nbsp;
Trump had a lofty idea at how he envisions the end of this war. He has suggested “<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/why-iran-regime-wont-surrender/686422/" target="_blank">unconditional surrender</a>,” followed by his personal involvement in the <a href="https://www.axios.com/2026/03/05/iran-leader-trump-khamenei" target="_blank">selection of a successor</a>: I must be involved in picking Iran’s next leader.
The swift victory against Iran failed to materialise, an end to the war is not in sight, and a new leader has been chosen without Trump’s involvement. The structures of the mullah regime appear so entrenched that the anticipated regime change following the rapid decapitation of the leadership did not occur. Yet Donald Trump had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/magazine/iran-trump-regime-change-history-eisenhower.html" target="_blank">proclaimed</a>: “What we did in Venezuela is, in my opinion, the perfect, the perfect scenario.”&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/trump-venezuela-hostile-takeover/686469/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a> calls this attitude a “hostile corporate takeover of an entire country”. Now the <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/17/politics/video/trump-cuba-honor-ldn-digvid" target="_blank">US government</a> expects Cuba to surrender. “I think I could do anything I want” with Cuba, Trump declared, now that the island is virtually cut off from energy supplies and its economy is in ruins. He is demanding the removal of Cuban President Diaz-Canel.
In the business world hostile corporate takeovers sometimes work, sometimes they fail. Similarly with Trump’s idea of swift government surrenders. In the case of Iran, he was misguided by the Wall Street playbook. Irresponsibly, he called on Iranians to overthrow the government before the bombing campaign started. Regime change in Iran has now been forgotten and Trump is agnostic about democracy. He is interested to get the oil price down and the stock market up.
Lessons from the past
The concept of regime change—replacing the top of the government to install one more agreeable to the US—is not new to US foreign policy. Proponents of regime change usually point to Japan and Germany as positive examples of successful democratisation. Often, however, the goal is not, or at least not primarily, democratisation, but rather the installation of a government that is ideologically close to the US or amenable to them.&nbsp;
But the “Trump Corollary”, as explicitly stated in the National Security Strategy to enforce the Monroe Doctrine, is not new either. In reality, it was already the Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan, and Bush doctrine.
Both Trump’s idea of ​​regime change and his rigorously pursued territorial ambitions (Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal) are reminiscent of the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, particularly the version of this doctrine expanded by President Roosevelt in 1904.&nbsp;
This doctrine legitimised American interventions in Latin America. At the beginning of the 20th century, the US intervened in numerous Latin American countries in ‘its backyard’, using military and intelligence means: in Colombia, to support Panamanian separatists in controlling the Panama Canal; repeatedly in the Dominican Republic; they occupied Cuba from 1906 to 1909 and intervened there repeatedly afterward; in Nicaragua during the so-called ‘Banana War’, to protect the interests of the US company United Fruit; in Mexico, as well as in Haiti and Honduras.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/magazine/iran-trump-regime-change-history-eisenhower.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> recently suggested that Trump’s current enthusiasm for regime change is most comparable to that of Dwight D. Eisenhower. During his two terms in office from 1953 to 1961, the once coldly calculating general allowed himself to be seduced into a downward spiral from one coup to the next.&nbsp;
In 1953, the US succeeded in overthrowing the elected Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh with Operation Ajax. Mossadegh wanted to nationalise the British-owned oil industry. The coup succeeded with CIA support. The US installed the Shah as its puppet. He ruled with absolute power until the so-called Iranian Revolution and the dictatorship of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979.&nbsp;
After the successful overthrow of the government in Iran, Eisenhower decided to intervene in Guatemala. The elected president, Jacobo Árbenz Guzmán, who initiated far-reaching land reform laws, was overthrown in a coup d’état in 1954 and replaced by the pro-American colonel, Castillo Armas.
During this period, the US government also formulated the so-called domino theory, which aimed to prevent governments, particularly in Asia, from aligning themselves with the Soviet Union. The assumption was that if one domino fell, others would follow. It was during this time that the costly war in Korea ended in an armistice. Therefore, countries like Vietnam, Laos, Burma, Indonesia, and others were on Eisenhower’s domino list.&nbsp;
However, the destabilisation campaigns carried out by the CIA sometimes had the opposite effect. Governments in Indonesia and Syria emerged strengthened from the interventions. Eisenhower left Kennedy with the loss of American influence in Cuba. The failed Bay of Pigs invasion in April 1961, intended to overthrow Fidel Castro, was the starting point for the decades-long blockade of Cuba, which Trump is determined to end now through regime change.
The most dramatic example of failed regime change in recent history is undoubtedly the Iraq War, which began in 2003 under President George W. Bush. The stated goal was to remove Saddam Hussein from power and destroy his weapons of mass destruction. The war led to the overthrow of the regime.&nbsp;
The United Nations and US teams found no weapons of mass destruction despite intensive on-site investigations. Attempts to establish an orderly state in Iraq failed. These experiences, and especially the disastrous outcome of two decades of military intervention in Afghanistan, discredited the concept of regime change.
What are the implications?
The most important lesson taught by efforts to affect externally forced regime change is that interventions often lead to crises that were ostensibly meant to be prevented or solved. The temptation was too great for Trump to miss the opportunity to depose the despised Maduro government.
Scholarly studies of the numerous attempted regime changes and democratisation efforts reveal three key findings. First, simply removing the government from power (whether through assassination, as in the case of Saddam Hussein in Iraq or now in Iran, or through kidnapping as in Venezuela) is insufficient, as such actions often lead to chaos, state collapse, or even civil war. Thus, it will be interesting to watch further developments in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran.
A second lesson from empirical studies of regime change is that democratisation is more likely to succeed if democratic experience already existed in the country. However, this is often not the case.
Finally, if the real goal is democratisation (and not just to secure spheres of influence or oil supplies etc.), it is far more promising not only to hold elections (as in Afghanistan, for example), but to renounce violence and initiate a long-term program with development aid and support for civil society.
Whether the US government will be impressed by these findings, or even acknowledge them, is doubtful. Currently, the American president is euphoric, despite the strong reaction from the Iranian government which he, surprisingly, did not expect. His promises to end the senseless wars and not start any new ones, however, seem to have been forgotten.
Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC).
This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and has been republished from <a href="http://toda.org/global-outlooks/regime-change-sometimes-it-works-often-it-doesnt/">the original</a> with permission.

Regime change – sometimes it works, often it doesn’t

In the first six days of the United States military campaign against Iran, Washington spent $11.3 billion, according to a Pentagon briefing to Senate appropriations staff. The entire annual operating budget of the United Nations stands at $3.45 billion for 2026, covering diplomacy, political missions, human rights monitoring, and the institutional machinery designed to prevent conflict. In less than a week, one country spent more than three times what the world invests in preventing conflict over an entire year.&nbsp;
Since then, the Pentagon has asked the US Congress for more than $200 billion in supplemental funding to sustain the campaign and replenish depleted munitions stocks.
This is not an anomaly. It reflects a structural feature of the international system: the consistent overfunding of war and the chronic underinvestment in prevention.
The imbalance is not primarily about scarcity. Global military expenditure exceeded $2.2 trillion in 2024 and continues to rise across regions. Over the same period, funding for multilateral institutions has stagnated or declined in real terms. The United Nations, whose core mandate is the maintenance of international peace and security, operates on a budget modest by the standards of national governments, with many member states in arrears on their assessed contributions. This pattern reflects a political economy that consistently privileges the financing of conflict over the financing of prevention.
Part of the explanation lies in political incentives. Military spending is visible, immediate, and readily justified to domestic audiences. It signals resolve and responsiveness to threat, and political leaders can mobilise support for such expenditure quickly, often with limited scrutiny once a crisis is framed in security terms.
Prevention operates differently. When diplomacy succeeds, when tensions de-escalate, when mediation holds, there is no spectacle and no clear political dividend. Success registers as absence. This asymmetry between the visibility of war and the invisibility of peace systematically distorts how resources are allocated.
Institutional dynamics reinforce this bias. Defence establishments are typically well-resourced and embedded in decision-making systems. Diplomatic and development institutions are more fragmented, more vulnerable to cuts, and often politically marginal.
In several major donor countries, development agencies have been weakened or absorbed into broader foreign policy structures, reducing their ability to act early and independently. At the multilateral level, the United Nations depends on assessed contributions that are frequently delayed or withheld, alongside voluntary funding that is unpredictable and often earmarked. Peacebuilding remains one of the least funded areas of the system, despite repeated recognition that prevention is more cost-effective than response.
The consequences are cumulative and mutually reinforcing. When preventive diplomacy capacities are under-resourced, opportunities for de-escalation narrow and conflicts are more likely to reach the point where military intervention appears unavoidable. When the United Nations is tasked with managing complex crises without adequate or predictable funding, its performance is constrained, reinforcing perceptions of ineffectiveness and further eroding political support for multilateral solutions.&nbsp;
The costs of conflict are then externalised globally: military escalation in strategically sensitive regions disrupts energy markets, trade routes, and supply chains, with the resulting increases in fuel and food prices falling disproportionately on low- and middle-income countries. A
t the same time, decisions to mobilise large-scale resources for military operations are typically taken within executive branches, with limited sustained public debate, while the underfunding of diplomacy and development is normalised as a technical constraint rather than recognised as a strategic choice.
It would be misleading to argue that the use of force is never justified. States face real security threats, and there are circumstances in which military action is deemed necessary. In the case of Iran, however, a functioning diplomatic framework had already demonstrated that constraints on its nuclear programme were achievable. The diplomatic option was dismantled, not exhausted. Senior American intelligence officials stated publicly that Iran was years away from the threat cited to justify the campaign.&nbsp;
But the current structure of incentives ensures that diplomacy is too often set up to fail: under-resourced before it begins, and then judged ineffective when crises escalate.
Rebalancing this political economy requires more than incremental budget adjustments. At the national level, it means integrating preventive approaches into foreign and security policy with corresponding investments in diplomatic capacity, development partnerships, and early warning systems, alongside greater transparency in how resources are allocated between military and non-military instruments.&nbsp;
At the multilateral level, member states need to provide more predictable and adequate financing for the United Nations, particularly in peacebuilding and conflict prevention. Addressing arrears in assessed contributions and strengthening flexible funding mechanisms would be immediate steps. Coalitions of middle powers, countries with a strong interest in a stable international order but less directly engaged in great power competition, have a particular role in advancing practical initiatives on prevention financing and institutional reform.
The issue is not whether resources exist. The scale of global military expenditure makes clear that they do. The question is whether states are willing to treat prevention not as an aspiration, but as a strategic priority.
As long as the current imbalance persists, the system will continue to produce the same outcome: rapid mobilisation of resources for war, and chronic underinvestment in the institutions that might make war less likely. This is not a failure of capacity. It is a failure of political choice.
Jordan Ryan is a member of the Toda International Research Advisory Council (TIRAC) at the Toda Peace Institute, and former UN Assistant Secretary-General with extensive experience in international peacebuilding, human rights, and development policy.
This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and has been republished from <a href="https://toda.org/global-outlooks/why-the-world-funds-war-but-starves-peace/">the original</a> with permission.

World funds war but starves peace

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/homecoming-at-election-time" target="_blank">Pappu Mahara</a>'s campaign for RSP began in Malaysia as he came to Nepal with a suitcase plastered with PM Balendra Shah’s photo. 
Last week, after what he considers a “job well done” he was flying back to Malaysia with a suitcase without the election poster but with high hopes for his, and Nepal’s, future.
On Thursday, the day of his flight, the first session of Parliament was underway. Addressing the House, RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane made an apology to Nepal’s Dalit community. 
Pappu was traveling to Malaysia with Lalit and Abhinash and all three are members of the Dalit community working in a factory to provide for families back home. Migration is an equaliser: it connects talent which is universal with opportunities that are not. It allows people a fresh start no matter their circumstances.
What we do not talk about as much, however, is that this <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/valuing-moral-migration" target="_blank">equaliser</a> itself is not equally accessible. Access to migration requires money, networks and information – all of which are unevenly distributed.
Among the three, Abhinash was part of an initiative by Migration Lab and the group International Manpower Recruitment targeted at the Musahar community to make meaningful migration accessible to all. He did not pay a single penny. He got exactly the job he had been promised. 
Abhinash and other Dalit youth may still have migrated despite not having money, but they would have had to borrow to pay hefty recruitment fees to fraudulent agents. The Musahar cohort <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/fee-free-migration-is-possible" target="_blank">included</a> workers who were victims to passport confiscation by middlemen without any job placement. 
As they prepared to fly back to Malaysia after a 45 day break, the three workers were examples of how targeted labour mobility can be designed to ensure migration benefits the poorest.
One answer is scale: reaching more marginalised communities with ethical recruitment pathways so more people can benefit.
The other is to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/social-remittance" target="_blank">link</a> them to countries offering even higher salaries and better protections for migrant workers.
Abhinash and others would have typically gone to India, a low-cost, low-risk and low-return destination, but they went to Malaysia where returns are significantly higher. But returns are relative: a Nepali in a Malaysian factory earns a basic salary of $422. The same factory job in Korea would pay $1,500 per month. In both cases, overtime hours add to the income.
But there is a catch. Barriers to entry are higher for countries like Korea. Workers have to learn the language and pass a test, unlike Malaysia when an employer interview is sufficient. We helped youth prepare for the job interview so they could show up in the best way possible and pass. But helping workers with language preparation is a wholly different proposition.
In interactions with youth from the Musahar community, I have often asked them informally why they do not opt for Korea. Abhinash, Lalit or others could easily pass the Korean language test if they put their minds to it.
There is lack of information (even misinformation) about migrating to places like Korea. Village-based agents will not share information about the Korean labour market in the villages because it is a government-to-government initiative where brokers have no role at all. 
While not a representative sample, many youth I spoke with do not know such details: how to apply, what the benefits are and how much it can cost. Abhinash thought that it costs upto Rs800,000 to migrate to Korea, which is not true. Actually a Korea placement costs just Rs70,000 which can easily be recuperated in less than a month.
There is also a network barrier. Musahar youth I spoke with did not know a single person who had migrated to Korea or Japan. Not knowing anyone who has attempted to go to Korea or Japan makes it daunting and out of reach. 
We have witnessed this first hand in the case of ethical migration in Malaysia. Word of mouth is one of the most important sources of job information for workers. Friends of Abhinash and Lalit ask us if there are similar ethical opportunities. It takes just one cohort to change perceptions of the unknown, we have learnt.
Lalit is setting up a WhatsApp group with peers from his village who also wanted to get jobs without recruitment fees. He already has a friend that he put in a good word about, 
“My friend is very smart and educated, but has never worked in his life,” he says. It was an honest referral, but not a blind one. 
When we create labour mobility initiatives, a part of the wider goal is also to enable such knock-on effects like building networks, role models, mentors, and reliable sources of information. Only then can we eliminate fraudulent actors.
The government’s apology to the Dalit community for historic discrimination has to be followed through with concrete action. This means creating job opportunities, including for foreign employment that are transformational.
This is in line with RSP’s own manifesto. Goal number 80 states: ‘Families from Dalit and marginalised communities who wish to go abroad for employment will be provided with concessional loans through banks based on recommendations or guarantees from local authorities.’
This commitment can be realised in many innovative ways so people from marginalized communities have access to not just any migration but the most rewarding, safe and transformational ones. 
Unlike India, Malaysia and the Gulf, access to high-return markets like Korea and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-japan-jobs-deal-still-stuck" target="_blank">Japan</a> has a more rigorous preparatory and selection stage. What barriers, for example, do youth from underserved communities like the Musahar face in accessing language preparation classes? Are there gaps in finances, social networks or reliable information that can be addressed? Can they access high-quality instruction? Sometimes, the barriers may be invisible like our own limiting beliefs stemming from unfamiliarity and lack of guidance and role models.
Publicly available administrative data on outmigration is not disaggregated for caste and other factors to help who is migrating, and by extension, who is not.
Not all migration is the same, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/our-great-stories" target="_blank">Nepalis</a> understand this all too well. Some return worse off than when they left, others are engaged in “survival migration”. Some come back having built assets or to build thriving businesses. A successful <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/helping-migrant-returnees-to-pivot-2urk8oo9" target="_blank">returnee</a> contributing to Nepal is inevitably a function of their migration experience: how much they earned, saved, learned, and were protected.
The earlier we become intentional through better program design, training partnerships, recruitment practices, and employer selection, the more likely it is to create positive and lasting change for migrants and their families. That we have an action oriented, proactive government gives us hope. 
We met Abhinash when he had doubts about whether he could actually migrate without paying fees. Now, back home for a break, he encouraged others to migrate ethically directly through recruiters and avoid middlemen. He has bought land, and now plans to build a house on it within the next two years.
A youth from the Musahar community or someone from Bajura should have the information and resources to migrate for rewarding overseas jobs if they wish to do so and to break out of the broker-trap that puts them in vulnerable positions. The new government should undertake measures to ensure that this great equaliser is also equally accessible to all.
Upasana Khadka heads Migration Lab, a social enterprise aimed at making migration outcomes better for workers and their families. Labour Mobility is a regular column in Nepali Times.

Upasana Khadka

Labour Mobility

The great equaliser

In a classic arc of political sociology, a revolutionary figure takes several decades to complete their cycle: mobilisation, institutionalisation, and finally governance. 
However, the timeline of this trajectory has been telescoped in the case of Home Minister Sudan Gurung, who in 2025 described himself as a social activist and volunteer, has gone from the barricades of the GenZ protests to the mahogany desk of the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Gurung is a personal pick of Prime Minister Balendra Shah, and played a pivotal role in getting him to join the RSP by mediating with Rabi Lamichhane. His journey serves as a real test bed for the ‘Outsider-to-Insider Transition’, raising a fundamental question about someone who now leads the very apparatus that he once fought against: the police, intelligence service, and the bureaucracy.
Social capital can indeed be built during a crisis exacerbated by state failure, and that is where we first see Sudan Gurung — expediting relief delayed by systemic corruption and red tape. Gurung’s delivery aid through a social-media-driven volunteer network bypassed the government. 
Whether or not he really rushed a dying child to hospital after the 2015 earthquake does not matter, it has become an urban legend. 
His work evolved into the non-profit Hami Nepal in 2020, serving as a ‘parallel state’ mechanism that would later become central to his public identity. Later, his group sprang into action during the Covid crisis, organising oxygen cylinders and beds . He was there after flood disasters in Manang and Sidhupalchok, and even organised Rs15m worth of aid to Turkey after the 2023 earthquake. 
Moral Legitimacy became his primary source of power, and he strategically positioned himself as an alternative emergency response system. But the real rupture happened on 8 September 2025 when years of frustration, corruption scandals, lack of transparency and state accountability culminated in a rally that the next day descended into anarchy. 
There was no single leader. The movement was fully decentralised, but as elsewhere such upheavals produces a recognisable face. Among them was Sudan Gurung. Who despite being a millennial himself, became the most visible interlocutor of the GenZ movement. 
He negotiated with the state’s key actors, including the president and the Chief of Army staff, during the period of uncertainty When the country was on the brink. This led to the dissolution of parliament and the formation of the interim government under Sushila Karki, paving the way for the election on 5 March.
Since then, Sudan Gurung’s role has become contradictory. Within days of touching Prime Minister Karki’s feet after her swearing in, he was at the gates of Baluwatar spearheading midnight demonstrations calling for her resignation. He accused her and Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal of not consulting the youth over Cabinet appointments and not arresting the previous government officials.
This oscillation became a hallmark of Gurung’s own version of the ‘Radical Flank Effect’ — erratic behaviour to force the establishment to make concessions. 
On 18 January Gurung formally joined the RSP, and started campaigning from his home constituency of Gorkha-1. He won decisively and was appointed home minister by Balendra Shah. The transition was complete. 
As minister his role spans core security areas: overseeing internal security through the Nepal Police, Armed Police Force and the intelligence bureau. The man who took part in anti-government rallies is now in charge of the riot police that aresupposed control anti-government protests.
His portfolio also handles state administration matters such as citizenship, immigration, and border security, coordinates with the judicial system on prisons, detention, and policies related to punishment and clemency. For example will be overseeing the fraud case against his own party’s chair, Lamichhane.
In his book Power in Movement, political scientist Sidney Tarrow observes that social movement leaders encounter ‘institutional capture’ upon entering government. In a sociological paradox, the man who previously denounced the police for killing youth protesters is now the person who issues directives to those same forces.
Preventive detention, surveillance, and the control of public festivals are the same instruments that the former old guard employed to stifle his movement. The activist who demanded transparency at the B P Koirala Institute now manages the state’s most secretive security apparatus.
In this arc, Gurung is not alone, there are parallels around the world for leaders emerging from the ashes of revolt. It is not so much a prediction, but for Gurung the challenge is even more acute because youth expectations are so high.
The bar for performance has been raised by citizens demanding change and quicker, more efficient service delivery. He is under constant public scrutiny, which is why he has to take YouTubers every time he goes on inspections of the airport, the BP Highway, police stations, picking trash on the sidewalks or meeting the Swiss ambassador to ask about repatriating the ill-gotten wealth of politicians.
Sudan Gurung is facing intense public glare. There have been calls to reveal the truth behind Hami Nepal’s finances, the alleged links to Free Tibet, and lately not paying five years of rent for an illegal lakefront property in Pokhara. 
As minister, he will find that moral legitimacy alone is no longer sufficient, it must be reinforced by transparent and consistent institutional accountability. Sudan Gurung’s ascent is evidence that the public mostly trusts ‘outsiders’ during times of crisis. However, history also cautions us that the state only permits ‘insiders’ to operate. 
Gurung will have to organise systemic reform to inject the transparency of his volunteer days to the Home Ministry’s traditionally secretive disbursements. If he fails, he runs the risk of validating Michels’ Iron Law of Oligarchy, which would serve as a warning about how revolutionary energy is dissipated by the very structures it was intended to overthrow.
Nepal is watching the man who said he once held a dying child in his arms after an earthquake. The volunteer has become the Warden.
Nischal Raj Gautam is a student of Media Studies and Mass Communication at St. Xavier's College, Maitighar. He is a member of the EU Delegation's Youth Sounding Board (YSB), and a journalist for TheirWorld's The Education Issue 2026.

He said no to politics. Now he runs it.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) that swept Nepal’s post-GenZ election last month has taken office at a fraught period in global geopolitics. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-myth-of-red-lines">war in West Asia </a>could potentially reshape the world order with far-reaching<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fuel-price-shock-hits-nepal-aviation"> strategic and economic consequences for Nepal</a> and the region.&nbsp;
The foreign policy of any state is largely dependent on the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-spheres-of-influence-illusion">extant structural features of the international system</a>, and Nepal and its remittance-driven economy faces a challenging geo-strategic environment.&nbsp;
The position of the United States in international affairs is still largely unrivalled, and provides a rather large window into the country. But the impact of greater Chinese power in Nepal is not yet properly understood, while India has always been and will continue to exert regional hegemonic influence.&nbsp;
With 5% of the global population contributing to 20% of the world economy, and flexing 50% of military might, the United States looms large just about everywhere in the world, including Nepal. Its rivalry with an emergent China puts Nepal in strategic proximity.&nbsp;
Whether it is the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mcc-gets-green-light-in-nepal">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project </a>or the State Partnership Program (SPP), if President Donald Trump and the State and Defense Departments want it done in Nepal, they will get it done. The more germane question is whether this is beneficial to long term regional peace and stability. That is a consideration Washington will surely have to take into account moving forward.
How all this corresponds, or not, to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-india-power-play">Indian policy towards Kathmandu </a>is the real question that will affect Nepal, given the strained relations between Washington and New Delhi lately.&nbsp;
There should be no confusion that as far as New Delhi is concerned, Nepal is part and parcel of India’s grand security structure. It has always been so, going all the way back to the British period under Viceroy George Curzon, and perhaps even earlier.&nbsp;
The Chinese assessment of Nepal is defined by Beijing’s interest to ensure the stability and security of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Any great power wishes to expand its influence beyond its borders and China, after all, now considers itself a global power. It has the engineering and financial capability to project its interest on a neighbouring country like Nepal whose economy is 400 times smaller.&nbsp;
However, expansion of Chinese influence in Nepal becomes a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/a-past-foretold">matter of historical significance</a> only because it comes up against what India regards as its sphere of influence. New Delhi’s power especially vis-a-vis neighbouring South Asian states is grossly underestimated. India is emerging as the next great power in Asia, and at the current juncture of history, China is unlikely to become an alternative to India in Nepal.&nbsp;
COUNTERWEIGHT
This is also improbable and impractical because of the current power distribution in the international system. The United States is an off-shore power balancer, and is unlikely to countenance projection of Chinese influence into Nepal beyond certain limits.
India is not just a fellow democracy, but also serves as a counterweight to US fears of Chinese dominance of Eurasia. Washington can be expected to exert ever possible influence to ensure that China is not a decisive power in Nepal.
It may be the case that Beijing does not wish to enlist itself in such a position either such a manoeuvre in the Himalayan frontiers of the Subcontinent could draw the United States still more deeply into the Nepal’s political tapestry.
The result would be a more combustible Nepal with too many friction points to manage, and lead to a veritable headache deleterious to regional peace and stability.
How the new government in Nepal maintains <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rsp-dos-and-don-ts">domestic peace and stability</a> will be closely watched in the region. It is a question contingent on a wait-and-see approach, as there are too many variables at play which cannot at present be set into watertight prognostications.
Nepal’s domestic politics therefore is governed by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/some-chicken-some-neck"> international developments</a>. The first quarter of the 21st century is already characterised by the interplay of interdependent variables.
As the geopolitical thinker Robert Kaplan describes it, conditions are taut like in a musical instrument where too much pressure at one point on the string can disrupt the entire system in ways that are unpredictable.
How that will play out in Nepal will be a function of the intersection of civilian and military leadership within Nepal, and the tripolar contestation of China, India and the United States in the region.
Bhaskar Koirala is an independent analyst associated with Peking University.&nbsp;

Tripolar contestation over Nepal

The war in West Asia has exposed the fragility of the economic architecture Nepal has built on over two generations. If the conflict continues, growth across developing Asia will slow and prices will rise. For Nepal, this will be felt through higher living costs, weaker economic activity, and growing uncertainty for the millions of families who depend on remittances.&nbsp; Nepal now needs to structurally transform from exporting labour to investing in domestic job creation. &nbsp; The country's current path toward a knowledge economy has a blind spot. A <a href="https://iids.org.np/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/unleashing.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> by the Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS) in Kathmandu shows that IT export companies alone generated 7,228 jobs and income for 66,509 freelancers.&nbsp; We are building digital labour export, not an economy that accumulates institutional knowledge. The Nepali Upwork developer and a migrant construction worker in the Gulf are engaged in the same economic activity, but with different tools. Nepal’s reliance on a <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS?locations=NP" target="_blank">remittance-driven economy,</a> means the country has failed to create enough <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal/publication/unlocking-nepal-s-growth-potential" target="_blank">quality jobs</a> at home. For millions of young people, leaving the country is not a choice but a necessity to survive and support families back home. <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal/publication/unlocking-nepal-s-growth-potential" target="_blank">Remittances</a> have no doubt helped reduce poverty. Thirty years ago, 55% of Nepal’s population lived on less than $2.15 a day, now it is 20% after the absolute poverty line was revised upwards. This progress has come at a cost — &nbsp;an economy that depends more on exporting workers than creating opportunities at home. This development reflects a deeper political failure to create meaningful jobs within the country. Since the democratic transition in 1991, Nepal’s leadership has largely recycled the same faces, with limited progress on job creation or industrial growth.&nbsp; Nepal cannot build a <a href="https://nipore.org/accelerating-nepals-startups/" target="_blank">knowledge economy</a> while its most ambitious people are outbound to Doha and Tokyo. We are also not just losing ‘labour’. We are losing the entrepreneurial risk tolerance of our youth.&nbsp; If the most ambitious 25-year-olds are abroad, who is left to support innovation and entrepreneurship? The same people who are working tirelessly abroad, are our biggest asset for development. Their work ethic and the know-how inurban renewal could well fit into the new RSP government’s mandate of 7% annual growth.&nbsp; The <a href="https://english.biznessnews.com/posts/-nepal%E2%80%99s-it-exports-cross-1-billion-" target="_blank">$1B milestone</a> of IT exports is a celebratory moment for Nepal. However, that cannot lead to a pathway to a $100 billion economy without innovation ecosystems that go beyond individual labour export. Companies like SecurityPal and industry associations such as NASIT have made significant efforts in building such an environment, recently championed by private sector leaders as a &nbsp;<a href="https://www.securitypalhq.com/blog/silicon-peaks" target="_blank">Silicon Peaks</a> model that emphasises a home growth tech cluster. The need to accelerate this transition is even more urgent with the escalating conflict in West Asia. &nbsp;The recent International Labour Organisation (ILO) <a href="https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2026-03/Nepal%20LDC%20Graduation%20Employment%20Impacts%20Report.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> shows that LDC graduation is expected to adversely impact manufacturing with losses of $1 billion by 2030.&nbsp; If manufacturing takes such a large hit from losing trade preferences, then Nepal’s services and IT sectors need to structurally transform and shift from exporting individual talent to building firms. &nbsp; A generation’s frustration has finally forced a shift in Nepal’s political structure, handing the new government a clear mandate to fix failures. But the question still persists: what prevents Nepal from achieving sustained, productivity-driven growth? &nbsp;&nbsp; RSP is in the right place at the right time to put Nepal's economy on a firm footing. At the heart of Nepal’s economic underperformance lies a major development binding constraint: low returns to investment on projects.&nbsp; The government invests like a high-growth economy, with gross capital formation at around <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS?locations=NP" target="_blank">25–30 percent of GDP</a>. Yet economic growth remains modest. The problem is not how much the country invests, but how little it gets in return. One way to see this is by looking at how much investment is required to generate growth.&nbsp; Nepal needs large amounts of capital to produce relatively small gains in output (graph, below). For instance, in 2024, the ICOR was 8.29, this suggests that Nepal had to invest more than 8 units of capital to produce a one unit of additional economic output.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260406040412_605dc527641d2ff2dc5723ed8bbec946898331d5538a55b9941e32a0725bf811.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20260406040412_605dc527641d2ff2dc5723ed8bbec946898331d5538a55b9941e32a0725bf811" data-rendition-name="original" width="1827" height="925" loading="lazy" alt="Economy graph"> <figcaption>Source: Author's calculation based on a Growth Diagnostic simulation</figcaption> </figure>  This reflects a deeper issue in how investment is allocated and executed. Capital is often locked in low-productivity sectors or diluted by delays, inefficiencies, and policy uncertainty.&nbsp; As a result, even high levels of investment fail to translate into sustained growth. Until investment shifts toward productive, firm-building activities, higher spending alone will not deliver results. &nbsp; To reverse this, the government must focus on raising the returns to investment by enabling firms to grow and compete. This requires a shift from managing scarcity to creating an environment where capital can generate consistent and predictable returns. A central priority should be given to attracting and retaining both domestic and foreign private investment. Investors do not just respond to direct incentives, but also to policy stability in the country. Nepal’s economy cannot sustain high growth if its human capital continues to leave the country.&nbsp; The goal should not simply be to create jobs, but to build companies that scale, innovate, and compete beyond Nepal. This requires supporting sectors with strong productivity potential and ensuring that firms can expand without being constrained by infrastructure gaps or regulatory friction. Finally, the state must improve the quality of its own investment. Public spending should focus on lowering the cost of doing business through reliable electricity, efficient logistics, and digital infrastructure.&nbsp; The GenZ movement took two days to bring change. The economic transformation of Nepal might take a generation. The RSP can accelerate this transition, but only if it focuses on building a better investment climate for business and not just feeding the global labour pool. Kailash Raj Pandey is an MPA/ID and MBA candidate at Harvard Kennedy School and MIT Sloan School of Management and a fellow at MIT Kuo Sharper Center for Innovation and Prosperity.&nbsp; Siddhartha Raymajhí is a policy researcher based in Kathmandu.

Creating a firm future for Nepal

Home Minister Sudan Gurung resigned on Wednesday following increasing coverage of and criticism over his investment in companies linked to controversial Nepali business figures Sulav Agrawal and Deepak Bhatta, who are currently under investigation for money laundering.
‘I am resigning from the position of Home Minister effective today to ensure impartial investigation into matters associated with me, and to make sure that there is no conflict of interest,’ Gurung wrote, saying that morality and public trust mattered more to him than office.
Gurung ended his message to the nation in English as he invoked the security forces, writing: &nbsp;‘For my country and For the respect of our security forces and For the youths of Nepal.’
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fsudangrghaminepal%2Fposts%2Fpfbid0ZPJ61BVi6p5siCoatgmezxWoJ2ttTBVNDJji8kLZe7EdDEvZHBuQmTEaRyZye75Pl&show_text=true&width=500" width="500" height="263" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; picture-in-picture; web-share"></iframe></div>
Gurung has become the second member to depart the Cabinet, serving for less than a month, despite the Nepali electorate’s hopes that Nepal would finally get a stable government after the RSP’s sweeping victory in the March elections.&nbsp;
Prime Minister Balendra Shah had sought clarification from Gurung on Wednesday after new details emerged about his shares in two micro-insurance companies, Star Micro Insurance and Liberty Micro Life, which are said to have been issued their licence by the Nepal Insurance Authority at the behest of Bhatta and Agrawal.
Gurung denied financial misconduct, saying that his investment in the two companies was included in his asset disclosure and insisting the misunderstanding is because of how the shares have been categorised.&nbsp;
Leaders within the RSP had called for an internal investigation into Gurung as they sought to maintain the party’s platform of clean governance and transparency. As such, Gurung’s position had become increasingly untenable, especially since former Labour Minister was sacked without being given an opportunity for clarification over a disciplinary breach involving his wife’s appointment to the Health Insurance Board.&nbsp;
On social media, Sah on Tuesday seemed to express dissatisfaction over the PM’s request for Gurung’s clarification.&nbsp;
Judging by the comments under Gurung’s resignation post, a significant part of the Nepali public seems to be firmly on Gurung’s side, blaming the mass media and what they call mouthpieces of old parties for driving him out of the Cabinet.&nbsp;
This is a reflection of his meteoric rise and the continued support he has maintained since he stepped into the spotlight as the leader of Nepal’s youth movement in the aftermath of the September protest.&nbsp;
Gurung has made headlines constantly ever since he burst onto the national stage, which includes questions over the degree of his and his organisation Hami Nepal’s involvement in the September 9 unrest, calls to divulge details behind Hami Nepal’s finances, and not paying five years of rent for an illegal lakefront property in Pokhara.&nbsp;
There have also been unsubstantiated claims, despite Gurung’s denial, about his ‘ties’ to the Free Tibet movement, which has made the Chinese— as well as Nepalis— wary.&nbsp;
As Home Minister, Gurung cultivated an image of a tough but approachabe leader, overseeing a series of high-profile arrests of previous political leadership and business figures even as he posted photos of sleeping in a sofa in his office, and engaged with the public on the streets and on social media.&nbsp;
As it stands, the Home Ministry was a bone of contention between Shah and RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane before it was awarded to Gurung, who is a close ally of PM Shah. Analysts had noted that with Gurung in charge, the Home Ministry would be a hook for Shah if Lamichhane, with his share of controversies, stepped out of line.&nbsp;
Following Gurung’s resignation, the Prime Minister’s secretariat has said that the PM would take charge of the portfolio for the time being. But it will be interesting to see if and how fresh negotiations for the Ministry unfold within RSP.&nbsp;
And with his supporter base largely intact, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this setback will have on Sudan Gurung’s political aspirations.&nbsp;

Home Minister Sudan Gurung resigns

Sudan Gurung is dancing. It is 2009. He has an emo fringe falling over one eye and is spinning on a polished floor. His dance shows dedication — moves that take years of bruised elbows to land. The clip is 16 years old, and had been sitting in the dead archives of YouTube and old Facebook pages, watched by almost nobody. This month <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@4gr4j/video/7621892206902725909">it has 1.9 million views</a>. Gurung became Home Minister on 27 March and resigned on Wednesday, barely a month into office. His<a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@aayvik/video/7626069452177542408"> pre-political life had been put back into circulation</a> at industrial speed -- the b-boying, the DJ sets, and the YouTube video of him dancing in a music clip.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026042202040_71df4d531423e7c941abde95fb8106346c70ab0afb71bbeb520cc570f14ba178.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026042202040_71df4d531423e7c941abde95fb8106346c70ab0afb71bbeb520cc570f14ba178" data-rendition-name="original" width="2300" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="When aura meets audit"> </figure>  The youth of Nepal, well-versed in snappy TikTok edits and aura compilations, turned the archive into a meme economy almost overnight. TikTok remixed the footage to trap beats. The comments settled on a nickname that crossed into everyday speech within days: 'Homie Minister'. <div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="tiktok-embed" cite="https://www.tiktok.com/@yalexthwreal/video/7622325255792512276" data-video-id="7622325255792512276" style="max-width: 605px;min-width: 325px;" > <section> <a target="_blank" title="@yalexthwreal" href="https://www.tiktok.com/@yalexthwreal?refer=embed">@yalexthwreal</a> <a title="sudangurung" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/sudangurung?refer=embed">#sudangurung</a> new home minister of Nepal😎 <a title="fyppppppppppppppppppppppp" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/fyppppppppppppppppppppppp?refer=embed">#fyppppppppppppppppppppppp</a> <a title="sudangrg" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/sudangrg?refer=embed">#sudangrg</a> <a title="home" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/home?refer=embed">#home</a> <a title="minister" target="_blank" href="https://www.tiktok.com/tag/minister?refer=embed">#minister</a> <a target="_blank" title="♬ original sound - •⪨н є α я т ❤н α ¢ к є я ⪩• - Music Universe 🎧" href="https://www.tiktok.com/music/original-sound-•⪨н-є-α-я-т-❤н-α-¢-к-є-я-⪩•-7308733170064231170?refer=embed">♬ original sound - •⪨н є α я т ❤н α ¢ к є я ⪩• - Music Universe 🎧</a> </section> </blockquote> <script async src="https://www.tiktok.com/embed.js"></script></div> As Home Minister, Gurung was in charge of the Nepal Police, Armed Police Force, Department of Immigration, and the country's internal security apparatus. Calling him 'homie' collapsed the distance between that office and the Discord server where the movement that brought him into power had organised itself. What is harder to explain is why the nostalgic clips did the narrative work for Gurung's political standing right up until the moment the paperwork did not. A teenager on a dance floor in a Thamel club, filmed before smartphones had decent cameras, was functioning as political currency for a powerful home minister, while a share registry was quietly filling the other column. The footage was not an argument. Gurung was not doing anything in it that related to home affairs. He was just dancing. The comments compared him to <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@4gr4j/video/7621892206902725909">Korean film heroes</a>. A separate <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@tandavyt7/video/7622151050128018708">48,000-like edit</a> was captioned 'Our New Home Minister Aura'. The replies were full of people saying they got chills listening to him speak. Even after his resignation, most comments on his Facebook page were supportive, saying he had been punished for pursuing truth and justice.&nbsp; Political legitimacy in Nepal has been built out of many things over the last 70 years, but it has never been built out of this. The question was always: what happens when the job starts demanding things his style, boldness, and swag cannot provide. Political aura in Nepal used to be a slow harvest, now it isn't. B P Koirala spent eight years in prison under the Panchayat. He wrote fiction at Sundari Jal. The writing survived, the prison sentences survived, and that experience became the template for what a serious Nepali politician looked like: someone the state had tried to break and failed. Legitimacy was accumulated by having their lives taken away, and refusing to bend the knee. The old mechanics of legitimacy produced politicians who could be audited. The record was made of words, dates, votes, and years behind bars. A voter who wanted to know what a leader stood for read his writings. A journalist digging for inconsistency could find it. The system was slow, often corrupt, and frequently boring. But boring was part of the job description. A minister was supposed to be slightly dull — evidence that the person was doing the unglamorous work of reading files and sitting through committee meetings. Today, boring is a disqualification. The attention economy rewards velocity and visual charge, and a politician who cannot generate either does not exist in the feed, and that means does not exist at all. The legacy parties are still issuing press statements criticising the new guard in the grammar of paper trails and procedural failure. But the audience has stopped reading, users scroll for their next viral bite. Sudan Gurung, unlike the old parties, understood exactly which grammar the feed rewarded. On his first evening as Home Minister, he posted a photo of himself sleeping on a sofa inside the ministry. Caption: creation cannot be greater than the creator, government is not above the people. The image travelled further in 12 hours than any ministerial press release has ever done.&nbsp; A minister napping on a sofa, phone-shot, zero production, read by the public as evidence of a minister who had skipped the motorcade and got straight to work. Gurung used Facebook to announce the names of former ministers and businessmen he intended to arrest. The feed was used to pre-announce state security action.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260422010456_2fa1918e1dd031d01f38b4001ee306d9414073cec0b795fa43a75cb5a8deb8c7.png" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20260422010456_2fa1918e1dd031d01f38b4001ee306d9414073cec0b795fa43a75cb5a8deb8c7" data-rendition-name="original" width="926" height="868" loading="lazy" alt="When aura meets audit"> </figure>  INFLUENTIAL INFLUENCER This is not how the Ministry of Home Affairs has ever operated. It is how a YouTuber releases a series. Sudan Gurung was a political content creator. As home minister, he was an influential influencer kinetically doing something in the visual medium. Much like Prime Minister Balendra Shah's sunglasses, Gurung's aura, authenticity and swag were a brand asset, instantly recognisable at thumbnail size. Balen's rap career supplies a pre-political archive that authenticates him the same way Gurung's DJ sets and b-boying clips authenticated him. The aesthetic is doing the work a manifesto used to do. The work is authenticity, and the strategy is auramaxxing. The emo fringe predates the ministry. The DJ sets predate Hami Nepal. The b-boying predates the earthquake, the NGO, the September uprising, the interim cabinet, all of it. Whatever Gurung is now, he was already that person before the office existed. This was the real spectacle of the Homie Minister: authenticity. Nepal's youth have grown up watching heavily-polished, talking-point ministers speak in a language aimed at nobody in particular. But that grainy archival clip of the Home Minister from 2009 was honest.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260422010456_5d6dff3a09e8b7e77dc60c3aa567c9e02b6bd5f90f94e20737ec05cc9a09023b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20260422010456_5d6dff3a09e8b7e77dc60c3aa567c9e02b6bd5f90f94e20737ec05cc9a09023b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1800" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="When aura meets audit NT"> </figure>  The effect transcended GenZ. <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@ektapokharel/video/7623242573481561365">A TikTok trend</a> captioned NOT ONLY OUR HOME MINISTER, WE ARE ALSO FROM THAT ERA <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@sonykhadka/video/7624106790266948872">has millennials posting their own</a> archive photos from the same period, aligning themselves with Gurung's pre-political aesthetic. The aura did <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@_thakuri/video/7623397397556645141">cross-generational work</a>. It was a shared legibility, spanning at least 15 years of Nepali youth culture, with the Home Minister standing at its centre.&nbsp; The traditional politician's entire adult life is a performance of identity. Every photograph is lit for the media, every statement is vetted. The persona is the product, and the product has been in development for 30 years. This makes the old guard legible but suspect in the attention economy. A generation raised on authenticity-as-currency reads the decades of careful performance as evidence of something to hide. The polish is the problem. The nostalgic Sudan Gurung party clips inverted this. The polish was absent. The footage could not be performance aimed at the viewer, because the viewer did not exist in 2009 and neither did the political stakes. The clip was therefore read as real, in a way a press conference can never be. It was just a kid dancing, and he happened to grow up to be the Home Minister. But Sudan Gurung's job was never to go viral. The Ministry of Home Affairs requires the person running it to file a complete asset declaration and to avoid holding financial interests in crony entities.&nbsp; None of that work is content. A correctly filed asset declaration does not get remixed into a trap beat. A functioning immigration database is not a TikTok. The paperwork that constitutes actual governance is structurally boring in exactly the way the old parties are structurally boring, and for the same reason. It is the slow, procedural, checkable apparatus that the old system was built to produce and that the new system has not yet learned to replace. And it is painstaking follow-the-money paper trail investigative journalists in the legacy media who uncovered the evidence. You cannot auramaxx your way out of a share registry. You cannot post your way past a conflict-of-interest statute. No amount of fire outfits and wild DJ transitions does anything for you when a journalist pulls the initial shareholder list of Star Micro Insurance and finds your name at number 49, with Rs2.5 million in shares alongside investors linked to Deepak Bhatta and Sulav Agrawal — two men currently at the centre of a Rs 3.7 billion money laundering investigation. <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@blox.drop/video/7622173520981658900">Auramaxxing was engineered</a> for the mechanics of reaching office. It is the reason Sudan Gurung became Home Minister and Gagan Thapa did not. The question that had not yet been tested, until this week, was whether the same weapon works when the terrain changes. The terrain does change when you assume power. This week, the answer arrived. TWO CLOCKS Two clocks had been running, and they did not sync. The first clock was built for auramaxxing. A clip posted at eight in the morning peaked by noon. A sofa photo was remixed before the minister had left the building. The feedback loop is fast and legible, and a politician playing this clock gets real-time data on what to post next. The old guard never learned to read it, which is a large part of why they lost the election. The second clock was the one the ministry actually runs on. It measures in quarters, court calendars, and the slow grind of investigation files moving between offices. A share registry takes weeks to pull. A money-laundering case moves at the speed of the prosecutor's office, which is to say, it often does not appear to move at all, until one morning it does. The legacy mass media is fed leaks, and the second clock does not care whether the minister is currently trending. The two clocks collided this week, and the second clock got there first. Faster than anyone expected. The first clock put Gurung in the Home Ministry in weeks. The second clock put him out of it in less than a month. On Sunday evening, Diyopost and Janaastha published documents showing Gurung as a founding shareholder in Star Micro Insurance and Liberty Micro Life — companies licensed by the Nepal Insurance Authority in 2022 following what reporting identified as political lobbying by Bhatta and Agrawal. A photograph also surfaced of Hami Nepal, the NGO Gurung chairs, honouring Bhatta as a donor on 21 December 2021. Gurung's first response was auramaxxed. A Monday Facebook post distinguishing ‘rumours’ from ‘facts’, insisting the shares were disclosed within his broader Rs20 million securities portfolio, promising to cooperate with any investigation. "Allegations and truth are not the same thing," he wrote. "Decisions should be based on evidence, not sentiment." It was a coherent clip, but it did not stop the clock. By Wednesday, Prime Minister Balendra Shah had sought written clarification. Leaders within the RSP itself were calling for his resignation. The opposition Nepali Congress had framed the question as one of democratic transparency.&nbsp; Gurung resigned, posting his decision to Facebook as he did everything else. Ethics, he wrote, hold more weight than any position. There is no power greater than public trust. He ended in English, invoking ‘my country … the respect of our security forces … the youths of Nepal’. Even the exit was content. And this is the asymmetry the office exposed. A politician whose legitimacy is built on fast 30 second videos is structurally exposed to a process that runs slower than the news cycle, because the archive of aesthetic proof was not engineered to answer documentary evidence.&nbsp; It was engineered to displace the demand for documentary evidence in the first place. When that demand returns, as it always does once a politician takes office, the digital archive keeps performing, but the documents keep getting uncovered. And the two tracks do not communicate. The old guard knew this clock because they had no other clock to know. What they lost in charisma they gained in durability: a politician built over 20 years of parliamentary record is harder to dislodge with a single document because they have already survived thousands of documents. The new guard has not been stress-tested against its own paper trail. Sudan Gurung has now been tested, and the test is over, and the template has been written in his exit rather than his survival.&nbsp; A politician can enter office on the strength of a dance clip, and the same class of evidence — share registries, company filings, founding-shareholder lists at number 49 — that would have ended the career of a politician in a previous era of Nepali politics has ended his. The second clock got there. The feed did not save him. Or not entirely. Because the resignation itself is now in the feed. The Facebook post. The 46 brothers and sisters. The epic sign-off. Within hours of stepping down, Gurung had already re-enrolled his exit into the same register that put him in office. The clip of the Home Minister dancing in 2009 is still in circulation. The sofa photo still reads as sincerity. The investigation into the micro-insurance shares will move at the speed of Nepal's prosecutor's office, which is to say, at a speed the feed has long since outrun. The movement that installed Gurung in the name of ending elite capture has had its answer about whether its own hero is subject to the same audit it demanded of everyone else. He walked — or was walked — before the audit ran its course. The resignation was framed as moral choice rather than forced exit, and the framing is already winning. Whether that framing holds is the next test. Auramaxxing, it turns out, is a weapon that works in one direction only: it got him the job, and when the documents arrived, it did not save him. But it may yet save the person. These are not the same thing. If the technique is wounded, it is not yet dead. The next Nepali politician with a pre-political archive and a phone is watching how Gurung exits, not just how he entered. And the answer is: you exit the same way you entered: on Facebook. In your own voice. Before anyone else writes the caption. Whether he comes back is the thing to watch. Whether the technique does is already decided. &nbsp; &nbsp;

When Aura meets Audit

Just three weeks in, Prime Minister Balendra Shah has already shed two ministers, and is having to contend with the economic fallout of the West Asia war plus the global order that it has upended.&nbsp;
The new dispensation in Nepal has aroused interest in New Delhi, Beijing as well as Washington. The ouster of Home Minister Sudan Gurung, whose first act in office was to arrest former prime minister K P Oli, has foreign policy wonks scratching their heads.
The US sent Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Samir Paul Kapur on a special mission to figure out what is happening in Kathmandu. In town at the same time was Cao Jing, Deputy Director General of the Asian Affairs Department of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. And Prime Minister Shah is preparing for an official visit to India.
For the Americans, it is mostly about containing China and looking after the welfare of Tibetan refugees, while pushing its own MCC Compact and State Partnership Program (SSP). Beijing is mindful of the post-Dalai Lama era, and does not want instability in Nepal to encourage free-Tibet activities. India lately seems more wary of American activity in what it considers its backyard.
The Chinese appear relieved to see Sudan Gurung go. Only last week, Ambassador Zhang Maoming met Gurung during which he raised the issue of Tibetan and Taiwanese activities in Nepal, seeking firm commitment that Kathmandu would not harbour activities hostile to Beijing.
“Geographically we are close to Tibet and not to the Mainland, so China remains suspicious of us, especially after the TOB and free-Tibet components that emerged from the GenZ protests,” says geopolitical analyst Indra Adhikari.
Kapur, for his part, met RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane, Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle and Foreign Minister Shishir Khanal. Although investment and infrastructure was on the agenda, the main issue seems to have been about Tibetan refugees. In nearly parallel meetings with ministers, Cao Jing warned Nepal not to be too cosy with the Americans.
For Indian academic and Nepal watcher Sukh Deo Muni, all this harks back to American activity in Nepal during the height of the Cold War. He tweeted: ‘US senior diplomat Paul Kapur's statement in Kathmandu must be understood carefully in New Delhi. He said the US does not want China or any other country to dominate Nepal.’&nbsp;
‘Any other country’ could be a pointed reference to India, and what this means is that Nepal may now have to navigate even more carefully a tri-polar world order reshaped by the West Asia war.&nbsp;
Nepali journalist based in New Delhi Akanshya Shah agrees that the United States may not be seeing Nepal through the Indian lens anymore, while New Delhi does not want heightened US activity in what it considers its sphere of influence. All this is further complicated by recent frostiness in Washington-New Delhi ties.
“New Delhi doesn’t have that familiarity factor it used to with old leadership in Nepal, but it is curious about what the young Balen Shah will do and what kind of relation he will pursue with India,” she adds. “Certain decisions of the Balen government such as ending VIP culture and delivering passport at homes have hugely resonated with the Indian people, he has in some ways become a role model among the youth in India as well.”
India has invited Prime Minister Shah for an official state visit, which will be his first foreign trip as per tradition. Shah graduated in structural engineering from a college in Bengaluru, and knows India well. Shah has injected religious elements into his public exposure as prime minister and this could help project Nepal’s ‘soft power’ in dealing with India.
But he has also been a nationalist on the Limpiyadhura map dispute, and there are other thorny issues like air connectivity, river projects and power exports that need to be ironed out.&nbsp;
Sukh Deo Muni warns that the old Indian diplomatic approach based on religio-cultural stakeholders in Kathmandu may not work anymore. He wrote: ‘India's Modi government must prepare itself well to deal with new Nepalese leadership and their empowered support base, which is self-confident, highly nationalist, aspirant and impatient.’
The RSP’s 22-page National Commitment document said Nepal should abandon its historical ‘buffer state’ identity to serve as a ‘vibrant bridge’ between regional and global powers. Much of this debate is theoretical, and there is much navel-gazing that distracts from regional realpolitik.&nbsp;
“Whether we are a buffer state or a vibrant bridge, in today’s heightened geopolitical scenario we have to have good relations with good neighbours,” explains Akanshya Shah. “What is of paramount importance is that our ties are based on the aspirations of the young generation, so that they are engaged.”
Indra Adhikari goes as far as to say that the concepts of “buffer state” and “vibrant bridge” have both failed and Nepal is neither. “We have had zero roles in mediating or de-escalating the tensions between India and China to call ourselves a buffer state. As a vibrant bridge, we cannot facilitate trade of the two countries. The new government should have researched and consulted more before proposing the same outdated and failed foreign policy concepts.”&nbsp;
What will be much more important for Prime Minister Shah is to continue Nepal’s traditional policy of ‘equidistance’ and convince his interlocutors that it is not an anti-Indian stance.&nbsp;
“At a time when there is increased interest of big powers in Nepal, we need to do a bit of our own homework for the systemic reforms we want,” says Akanshya Shah. “As for India, we first need to clearly define what we want on connectivity, energy and culture. But most importantly, we have to capitalise on the goodwill of India which we haven’t been able to in the past.”
Adds Indra Adhikari: “When it comes to fundamental aspects of foreign policy that ensures and enhances the well being of our citizens, national parties should all have one unified voice that doesn’t change when the government does. Only then the future generations can own it.”

Love thy neighbours (and America)

Prime Minister Balendra Shah sought written clarification from Home Minister Sudan Gurung following news of his investment in two companies linked to controversial Nepali business figures Sulav Agrawal and Deepak Bhatt, who are currently at the centre of a Rs3.7 billion money laundering investigation.
Home Minister Gurung's secretariat said that it has responded to the PM and submitted a written explanation. This comes after Home Minister Sudan Gurung issued a public clarification about the new developments regarding his investments on Monday.&nbsp;
Gurung is listed as a founding shareholder of two micro-insurance companies Star Micro Insurance and Liberty Micro Life, having acquired shares amounting to Rs2.5 million. The two companies are said to have been issued their licence by the Nepal Insurance Authority at the behest of Bhatt and Agrawal. Family members and close aides of both Bhatt and Agrawal have stakes in the two companies.&nbsp;
Bhatt, chairman of Infinity Holdings, is a power broker accused of using his political connections to secure and manipulate public procurement contracts, influence policy changes ass well as leadership appointments to regulatory institutions including the Securities Board of Nepal and Nepal Insurance Authority.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, Shanker Group vice-chair Sulav Agrawal was also arrested earlier this month as part of a broader money laundering probe as well as an investigation into the group’s finances. Agrawal was previously arrested during the Covid-19 pandemic after he was found selling &nbsp;67 infrared thermometers from a vehicle with diplomatic credentials. At the time, Bhatt is said to have used his connections to facilitate Agrawal’s release.&nbsp;
Critics have raised concerns the lack of detailed disclosures on Gurung’s part about investments tied to the very figures that his Home Ministry is in charge of investigating. There are also questions as to the source of his investment, which Gurung said in his clarification were raised through loans.
In his clarification, Gurung denied concealing his investments, saying that his shares in the two companies are part of in his over Rs20 million portfolio included in his asset disclosure and insisting the misunderstanding is because of how the shares have been categorised. &nbsp;
On his name and portfolio being associated with controversial figures, he responded, ‘There are hundreds to thousands of shareholders in a company. Buying shares does not constitute a partnership with anyone.’&nbsp;
He continued: ‘If that is the basis, then everyone with investments in those companies must be held accountable, which is not fair. Investments in the companies include those from media houses and banks. Are they all guilty?’
Leaders within the RSP have called for internal investigation into Sudan Gurung, to maintain the party’s platform of clean governance and transparency.&nbsp;
This comes after the sacking of Labour Minister Dipak Sah earlier this month after the RSP found him to be in breach of the party code of conduct following the reappointment of his wife to the Health insurance board. Sah was not given the opportunity for clarification prior to his departure.&nbsp;
Critics have said that the party is reverting to the patronage-driven politics of previous leadership following the appointment of figures close to RSP leadership in various key positions.
Many influential business owners elected to the House with direct stakes in the business, finance, tourism, and infrastructure sectors sit in Parliamentary Committees that would directly benefit their interests. &nbsp;
On Monday, RSP appointed Bhupdev Shah, who previously was a part of Balen Shah’s secretariat during his tenure as Kathmandu Mayor, as the party’s general secretary. Some have questioned the party’s decision to appoint Shah without going through an election process in its upcoming general convention.&nbsp;
Shah’s appointment comes as there is increased public attention over members of the Prime Minister’s inner circle being appointed to key advisory positions as well as to head governance reform committees.