<figure><img width="3242" height="1773" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13979c7e80680e0a992ejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Estimated from various sources</figcaption></figure>A country is being offered its largest ever infrastructure grant, but is torn between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mcc-ball-in-nepals-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">accepting it or not</a>. The donor nation appears more eager to give the money than the recipient to take it. That, in a nutshell, is what is happening to the $500 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) grant from America to upgrade Nepal’s power grid and highways. Political leaders opposed to the MCC have weaponised it to strike at rivals to such an extent that they cannot now backtrack – even though  generated power is already being wasted because of the lack of transmission capacity.The tussle over the MCC in Nepal has geopolitical undercurrents because of growing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sino-american-impacts-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sino-US tensions</a>.  Frequent visits to Kathmandu by US functionaries are an indication of just how important the project is for Washington – even though its official line is that it is up to Nepal to take it or leave it.  <figure><img width="1200" height="800" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d139a9c7e80680e0a992fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The US Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu and his deputy Kelly Keiderling are both in Kathmandu this week to meet Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and other leaders. These visits follow <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a 4-day trip in September</a> by Fatema Z Sumar, Vice President of Compact Operations at the MCC.The Americans seem <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">genuinely mystified</a> about why a country like Nepal that needs all the help it can get to develop its infrastructure, and which stands to lose billions in wasted hydroelectricity in the coming years because of the lack of transmission lines, should be so hesitant about their grant.   Officially, the US Embassy said in a statement this week that Lu and Keiderling were in Kathmandu as part of a regional trip to discuss ‘climate change, Covid-19 response and strengthening democracy’. The MCC was pointedly not mentioned. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-cost-of-no-mcc/">The cost of no MCC</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-precious-electricity-going-waste/">Nepal’s precious electricity going waste</a>, Anita Bhetwal<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/missing-links-in-nepals-mcc-debate/">Missing links in Nepal’s MCC debate</a>, Jeevan R Sharma and David Seddon <img width="828" height="1446" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d139d9c7e80680e0a9930jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figure><img width="3600" height="3640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13a09c7e80680e0a9931jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Lu has been posted before in New Delhi, and is a South Asia hand. Diplomatic sources say MCC is definitely going to figure prominently in his discussions here, which will be a follow-up to the short interaction Prime Minister Deuba had with US President Joe Biden in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Glasgow</a> two weeks ago during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/good-cop-bad-cop/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COP26</a>. Deuba also met the deputy chief of the MCC Alexia Latortue, and told her that he and the leaders of his five-party coalition supported the MCC moving ahead.On his return from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/">Glasgow</a>, Deuba told the press that he and Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal had written to the Americans assuring them that they would push MCC ratification. Dahal subsequently backtracked, saying he had only agreed to amendments to the contract. One source said Dahal told party insiders he did not want the controversy to weaken the coalition, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/who-wants-early-elections-and-why/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cost votes in elections</a>.The private sector has warned that Nepal faces huge losses if the five-year compact is not approved.  “We will lose Rs142 billion annually if we do not upgrade our infrastructure for power distribution, the MCC is designed to help us with that,” says Dinesh Shrestha of the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI). <img width="1200" height="800" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13a49c7e80680e0a9932jpeg.jpg" alt="">At present, Nepal is generating 2,000MW of energy, but in the next three years this figure will soar to 4,500MW, not taking into account power generation from smaller plants. Peak demand is at 1,500MW which is increasing by 20% every year. Even then, Nepal will have excess of 4,700MW by 2025, which it risks wasting unless there are new transmission lines – with or without the MCC.Most of the $500 million MCC grant is earmarked for the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400kVA transmission line to distribute electricity from existing and new hydropower plants in central and eastern Nepal, and also connect to a high-capacity line to Gorakhpur so Nepal can sell surplus monsoon electricity to India. Says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/">hydropower</a> investor Gyanendra Lal Pradhan: “If the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal transmission line is not built under the MCC, investors will have folded, and even banks that have backed the projects will be in deep waters. It will be tragic for a country with such immense hydropower potential.”It has been four years since a coalition government consisting of the Nepali Congress and Maoists signed the MCC contract in Washington, which is awaiting ratification by Nepal’s Parliament. In her last visit, the MCC’s Fatema Sumar said the US was not prepared to wait indefinitely for Nepal to gets its act together. <img width="1200" height="800" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016114/636d13a79c7e80680e0a9933jpeg.jpg" alt="">“Countries knock at our doors all the time for capital, as it is getting harder and harder to obtain development funds,” Sumar said in Kathmandu in September. “We are holding $500 million for Nepal. We cannot wait forever. When will it be the right time for Nepal?”The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/">project was held hostage</a> by prolonged <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political infighting</a> first between Prime Minister Oli and Dahal, and now between radicalised members within the ruling coalition. With the 2023 elections approaching, leaders who were themselves responsible for using the MCC against rivals do not want Parliament ratification to affect their poll prospects. Dahal’s explanation to his party that he wants the MCC pushed to after elections proves this.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/">Post-truth politics in Nepal</a>, Nirnaya Bhatta

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Power politics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141144/636d00bb9c7e80680e0a35f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1460" height="1086"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba took office nearly two months ago, but aside from five ministers he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-delaying-nepal-cabinet-expansion/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has not been able to set up a full Cabinet</a>.It is not for the lack of trying: he needs to balance disparate demands of coalition partners who want their rewards for backing him. The second Covid wave may be waning, and Kathmandu Valley lifted its three-month lockdown on Wednesday, but the economy and development are at a standstill.But that seems to be of little concern to personalities in the parlours of power whose eyes are set on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">grabbing important portfolios</a> ahead of the 2023 elections so they can build up war chests, as well as command the government and security apparatus.Staking their claims to Cabinet positions are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/old-wine-in-old-bottle-in-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhav Kumar Nepal</a> who launched his own party, the CPN (United Socialist) on 25 August, and whose defection in July led to the collapse of the K P Oli government, and paved the way for Deuba to become prime minister for the fifth time.Deuba also needs to pacify other members of the five-party alliance, including his own Nepali Congress (NC), where rival factions need to be placated ahead of his party’s general convention in November so that he can counter rivals for presidentship.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba</a> has to decide whether it is more important to pacify dissidents like Ram Chandra Poudel, or dangle carrots in front of members supporting Bimalendra Nidhi’s candidature for president of the NC.The Maoist Centre (MC) is also demanding its share, and not just a pound of flesh. The MC’s Pushpa Kamal Dahal complained publicly that he was under “tremendous stress” because of demands from many of the party’s 49 members for ministerships. “I wish I could make all 49 MPs ministers, but there are only 7 slots,” an exasperated Dahal told a gathering last month.Then there is the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) which, besides its own ministerial candidates, is also putting pressure on Deuba to retract the ordinance he used to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">allow Madhav Nepal to split off from the UML</a>.That ordinance allowed the Mahanta Thakur faction to also break away from the JSP because it lowered the constitutional threshold of parliamentary party membership for a formal split. The JSP now fears more dissidents may leave the party.Two lengthy meetings of coalition leaders this week in Baluwatar failed to agree on the ministerial lineup. The NC and MC have divided up the most important ministries between themselves. Deuba already has his loyalists in the home affairs and law ministries, and the state minister for health. The Maoists have finance and energy. The two also want to keep foreign affairs, defence, and information.The JSP and United Socialists will have to make do with remaining ministries, and are haggling over the more lucrative ones. Deuba’s problem is that the Constitution only allows 25 ministries in government, and his aides say the partners are working on a compromise but a deal “may take a few more days”.There are also demands from within coalition members. Dahal has to placate comrades from the conflict days. Even the JSP has not been able to finalise its list in order to strike a Mountain-Madhes balance. The remaining member of the alliance, Rastriya Janamorcha has only one MP and has said it does not want to be a part of the government.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/from-the-fire-into-the-frying-pan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Deuba</a> is working on a quota of 5-7 portfolios for Madhav Nepal’s United Socialists, five more ministries for the Maoists and the JSP, and five more for his own NC. And with that he will have hit the limit for Cabinet size. Negotiations within the coalition are expected to drag on.

Who gets what?

<figure><img width="918" height="645" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d07c59c7e80680e0a5fdbjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Nepali Times issues #53 (27 July-2 August 2001) and #67 (9-15 November 2001).</figcaption></figure>Sher Bahadur Deuba became Nepal’s prime minister last week, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-accidental-prime-minister/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-accidental-prime-minister/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748497000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOKQcVt5lo_DELvBty5qp0r8cv0A">won a confidence vote</a> in the House on 18 July. This is familiar terrain for a man who has been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/from-the-fire-into-the-frying-pan/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/from-the-fire-into-the-frying-pan/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFBd1bSpQFQVPzpLxHDrFZMfDSSkQ">on this road four times before</a> in the last 26 years.And so have we, here at Nepali Times. Combing through our archives, we dug up the reports, commentaries and cartoons from the past 20 years about Deuba’s previous tenures as prime minister.Few national leaders are offered so many chances to get it right. Yet, as we can see from his past tenures including this one, Deuba has struck when the iron is hot to manoeuvre himself to prime ministership. However, there have not been too many examples of successful governance that stand out.And we hear that Deuba’s astrologers have told him he will be prime minister two more times after this!When Deuba became prime minister for the first time in 1995-97, it was still looking like the restoration of democracy and open economy would allow the country to finally take a great leap forward. Foreign Direct Investment was flowing in. His high-profile wife, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7457" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D7457&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHa4EJo-FajMullZm-SYyZRDjxzZw">Arzoo Deuba</a>, was a key link to the international community.Local elections were beginning to devolve political power to the grassroots, ensuring more accountability and spurring development. But that was when the Maoists decided that parliamentary democracy was too slow to bring an end to a feudal monarchy.Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai handed Deuba a 40-point demand (that included end to Gurkha recruitment and ban on Hindi movies) and an unrealistic deadline of a week to fulfil them. This was essentially a declaration of war, and sure enough on 13 February 1996 the Maoists launched their armed struggle. Deuba ignored the insurgency, and treated it like a law and order issue. But when he finally acted, it was to get the police to launch campaigns code named Kilo Sierra 1 and 2. Ordinary people in the western mountains were terrorised, and this drove them into the Maoist fold.During his <a style="font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6685#.YPVWlS9w0Wo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D6685%23.YPVWlS9w0Wo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEga2JokpL9JKkRFJZEoI4FOI5gFg">second term</a> as prime minister in 2001-02 following the massacre of the royal family, the army was dragged into war and casualties escalated. More people were killed in the year after the Royal Nepal Army joined the conflict than in the previous six years. <figure><img width="1202" height="619" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151116/636d07c89c7e80680e0a5fdcjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Nepali Times issues #199 (4-10 June 2004), #229 (7-13 January 2005) and #859 (9-15 May 2017).</figcaption></figure>In 2002, Deuba dissolved Parliament (much like Oli did this year) declared a state of emergency and was eventually sacked by King Gyanendra who in a televised address called his prime minister “incompetent”.  The king used and disposed of Deuba like a raggedy doll, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2494#.YPVV7y9w0Wo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D2494%23.YPVV7y9w0Wo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6v6VTP1eVpde_WfbZsNbHb2MUrA">bringing him back</a> as prime minister for his third time (<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=2548#.YPVXJy9w0Wo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D2548%23.YPVXJy9w0Wo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOoqiHiKJ4_feVzIVbcWnbGGDW3A">2004-05</a>) and then promptly putting him under house arrest for corruption after he staged <a href="http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1260#.WS_1fZJ97Dc" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D1260%23.WS_1fZJ97Dc&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEL0XfIiAV9awGFULZ3UgBg9QnCCA">a royal-military coup</a> on 1 February 2005. Despite the ignominy, Deuba kept <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/dahal-deuba-oli,3151" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/dahal-deuba-oli,3151&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFPICQ_VeXEU5l9gJkJpAzdZ8xPnw">resurrecting himself</a>. He returned to Baluwatar after 12 years in 2017 after consolidating his grip over the Nepali Congress and cobbling a coalition with the Maoists. Being prime minister between two phases of the election, Deuba after much bargaining with Dahal handed over the Home Ministry to the Maoists. He must have had a strong sense of déjà vu when he had to undertake <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/pm-deuba-iv,3745" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/pm-deuba-iv,3745&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1626787748498000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEU8RxRsa5FbgFypOpxoszBOJTtTw">identical negotiations</a> last week with Pushpa Kamal Dahal over the Cabinet. This time, not to repeat the mistake and with an eye on the 2023 elections, Deuba kept the Home Ministry but had to relinquish Finance to the Maoists. Now that he has won the vote in the House, there will be more parties to reward and appease with ministerial posts. There are no permanent friends and foes in politics. But it is an irony of ironies that Deuba is now at the helm with the help of 'Prachanda' who tried to assassinate him, and on whose head he had announced a ransom during the conflict. The return of Sher Bahadur Deuba signifies a break from the paralysing power struggle that prevented the Oli administration from addressing the people’s everyday concerns during the pandemic. The confidence vote this week also saves the exchequer an estimated Rs100 billion for an early election that will now not be needed. And because this is essentially an election government, Deuba will have to get his disparate coalition to perform and deliver like never before. If he can maintain discipline in the Cabinet, showcase transparency, make breakthroughs in vaccination, job creation and disaster relief, voters may take kindly to him. The signs are not good. Even before he won the vote, Deuba got his Nepali Congress colleague Bijya Kumar Gachhedar who had been convicted of corruption released on bail, and he has vowed to release another party member, Aftab Alam, who is in jail for murder. With this kind of track record, and given that this is a coalition with the Maoist Centre, we cannot expect meaningful progress on transitional justice for the victims of the conflict either.  If the Deuba government behaves like it has before, it will only give the UML the chance to exploit the NC's incumbency disadvantage to return to power in 2023.

Deuba's denouement

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112911110/6385d8509c7e80680e0cc75cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1604" height="1128"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>A country of 30 million is not small. A country that cannot spend 70% of its development budget is not cash poor.Nepal is big enough to need systems in place and use them to manage the country. It cannot muddle through on ad hocism, and especially during a crisis like the one we are going through now.As we begin to emerge hopefully soon from the impact of the lockdown, we must shed the practices and habits that have characterised governance in Nepal: the attitudes of ke garne, afno manche, bholi, chali halchha.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ke-garne-attitude-kills-people/">Ke garne attitude kills people</a>, Laxmi BasnetMeritocracy will have to replace nepotism, goal-orientation has to replace fatalism, and we have to do yesterday what could have been done tomorrow if anything is going to change for the better in Nepal. If Nepal does not get remittances from those employed abroad in the post-COVID-19 era, how will we pay for the country’s fossil fuel imports? We need to think systems.No matter who comes to power, there is an underlying belief that being in power means the freedom to make ad hoc decisions. The god kings and oligarchs ruled made decisions on a whim, and those bad habits seem to have been inherited by our federal, republican democratic strongmen.Once in power, they do not like to put in systems because that will mean decisions have to be consultative, accountable and transparent. The problem with making ad hoc decisions is that they may offer short term benefits, but you do get into trouble at some point or other in future. How many times can you use the excuse that you did not know what was going on?In a country with seven provincial and 753 locally elected governments, systems have to be in place if people are to feel the impact of Nepal’s political evolution over the last seven decades – after all what were those changes for if not to improve governance, service delivery and spur development?<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/thinking-out-of-the-box-to-rescue-nepal/">Thinking out of the box to rescue Nepal</a>, Prem Jung ThapaThe COVID-19 crisis is a watershed moment. It offers Nepal a unique chance to digitise government services that will do away with ad hocism and corruption that comes from human to human contact. You cannot grease a palm if it is virtual, and wrongdoers leave digital footprints.Making transactions cashless and physical distancing could be the best ways to fight corruption in Nepal. If we can introduce contact tracing and ensure it is meticulously enforced, we could make fighting crime and corruption very useful by-products of this pandemic.The global pandemic has offered Nepal and the whole world a chance to re-imagine and re-build the health sector. The lockdown was meant to be a strategy to buy time for the government, health professionals and related businesses to ramp up capacity and ability to respond. These include everything from the manufacture and distribution of masks and PPE to developing tests and vaccines.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-accidental-leaders/">Nepal's accidental leaders</a>, Anil ChitrakarIn Nepal, the pandemic has felt more like a paid holiday for many. There was no attempt by the government, development partners or professionals to convince and bring the sectors together to use this opportunity for the future. Health for all, insurance, research and development, supply chain management, trainings, up gradation of hospitals and health facilities, formalising pharmacies ... so much could have been done. But it is still not too late.We have a whole generation of people who have grown up watching Hollywood movies where Superman and Wonder Woman track down the bad guys making lethal viruses, killing them and destroying their labs in the nick of time. What we have not seen is a movie which picks up after the virus has been contained, and society has to chart a new path of revival, learning from the mistakes of the past.Watching a movie passively knowing that there will be a happy ending is one thing, but today we are individually all players in the unfolding plot and ‘I’ could very well be the next victim, or hero. This reality show is as real as it gets. Lives and livelihoods are being lost, and the virus is quick to pounce when it detects weak leadership, denial, or a lack of systems.We in Nepal must use this opportunity to address inequality and discrimination. It is a chance to clean up Mt Everest, dredge Phewa Lake, prevent sewage from flowing into the Bagmati, repair trails and trail bridges, upgrade the seven major monument zones in the Kathmandu Valley, Janakpur and Lumbini.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-chance-to-green-its-budget/">Nepal's chance to green its budget</a>, Kaustubh DhitalCities across Nepal need to create dedicated sidewalks for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18714#.Xs8-4i8w0Wp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D18714%23.Xs8-4i8w0Wp&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHxlOT3jvY5ynKVoUN1rJGyvWJZKw">pedestrians and bicycle lanes</a>, make sure that Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandus-road-ahead-post-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandus-road-ahead-post-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFYtjsavcqI8-QRcuslUQKmLbdzqA">transport system moves to clean hydroelectricity</a>. Nepal has no oil and we need to plan for energy security by reminding ourselves how many times <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%2520,2863&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGT0WYt8o-kUKJrkmksf9ccwh1uNQ">India has cut off our petroleum supply</a> in recent history.Once again, the government may not take the lead here because it does not have the systems in place. We have to collectively step up as a people. Time calls on us to move away from sound bites and photo ops. After all, the first fatality in Nepal attributed to COVID-19 required <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/bhaktapurs-covid-19-heroes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/bhaktapurs-covid-19-heroes/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFSx32lHPgjO5bbfDf_VkJwwITp_w">young volunteers from Bhaktapur</a> to quietly step up and enable the cremation.Anil Chitrakar is President of <a href="http://www.siddharthinc.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.siddharthinc.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1590728839126000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFDqReoEgvFMX6gIWVxJPTwSpVSOg">Siddharthinc.</a>

Anil Chitrakar

Nepal is too big for ad hocism

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41df9c7e80680e04a69cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="853"/><figcaption>Photos: SANDEEP RANA BJP HEADQUARTER</figcaption></figure>Prime <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/modi-india-politics,872" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Minister Modi</a> is returning to power in India with more confidence will mean that his government will be more assertive towards smaller countries like Nepal in the neighborhood.As a leader who masterminded the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">five-month economic blockade</a> of Nepal in 2015, Modi’s policy towards its northern neighbour has been hands-off since then.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/indias-new-social-media-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India's new social media politics</a>, Shashi TharoorThe new Modi government can be expected to counter China’s Belt Road Initiative with increasing India’s own investment in highway, railway, energy and telecommunication connectivity to and within Nepal.Nepal’s leaders may also have to adjust their policy of equidistance between Beijing and New Delhi to take into account a more powerful and confident Modi government to the south.Read also: <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/at-ground-zero-in-indias-election-heartland/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">At ground zero in India's election heartland</a>, Namrata Sharma<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/looking-forward-to-the-foreign-policy-of-the-modi-government,302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">When he won in 2014</a>, Modi had launched a ‘neighbourhood first’ policy with mixed results. This time he may show them red lines while seeking to a much larger say in the region, and offering cooperation in development areas with people-oriented projects as he has done at home.Modi could redefine his Nepal policy in order to seek acceptability and course correction. There are challenges on foreign policy as the problems in India’s periphery are significant. With occasional diplomatic blunders and lack of ground understanding, there are serious limitations to India’s influence in the region vis-a-vis an assertive China.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-modi-fied-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Modi-fied Oli</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41e39c7e80680e04a69djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="830" height="1024"><figcaption>Photos: SANDEEP RANA BJP HEADQUARTER</figcaption></figure>The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi has swept India’s 2019 parliamentary elections by winning 300 seats on its own out of the 542 in the Lower House. The NDA (National Democratic Alliance) led by BJP has mustered 349 seats, which is up from 336 in 2014. The opposition Indian National Congress mustered barely 51 seats, with its United Progressive Alliance obtaining 91.The saffron wave not only swept through the Hindi heartland and Gujarat, but also rippled through West Bengal, Odisha, Maharashtra and Karnataka. It has gained nearly 50% vote share in North and West India and broken its own 2014 record.By pursuing an inward-looking growth, India has also failed to economically integrate the region. But it is more than concerned about the rising footprints of China in Nepal and elsewhere, which were traditionally seen as within its sphere of influence.The results clearly indicate that Modi is and will remain an uncontested leader in India. Voters seem to like his assertive leadership, and think it will secure national interest, deliver on governance and lift the poor. They have voted for Modi despite massive unemployment, rural distress and the highly divisive nature of BJP campaigns.India may now be headed towards a presidential-style of government with every constituency having voted for just one person: Modi. This is unprecedented as no single politician has emerged the centre of an entire election exercise since Indira Gandhi in 1971. Critics say this will concentrate power and centralise decision-making, as the election was fought solely on the issue of national leadership.The results also indicate that ideological battles are different from electoral contests as India has voted as a block despite caste dynamics, regional traditions and social structures embedded in Indian political system.Consensus coalition politics is now a thing of the past with powerful regional satraps holding sway. Except for Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has made huge inroads in states it was weak earlier in like West Bengal and Odisha which were dominated by strong regional leaders. It has managed to even thwart the threats from BSP-SP super-coalition ‘mahagathbandan’ in Uttar Pradesh.How did the juggernaut of Modi and BJP President Amit Shah manage such a victory? The BJP is a well-organised, cadre-based party with deep penetration right to the electoral booth. Over the past five years Amit Shah built an extraordinary party machinery with millions of new members who reached out to voters.During the campaign, BJP deployed enormous financial resources, dominated the media, and did not allow dissenting voice in the party to emerge in public. There has been micro-management from the top thereby maintaining the flow of command and discipline among cadres.The opposition Congress, on the other hand, was disorganised. Although it talked of delivering justice through ‘love and unity’, that did not resonate with the upper class and first-time voters in India. The fact that the President of Congress party Rahul Gandhi lost to BJP’s Smriti Irani in Amethi in Uttar Pradesh, which was considered a stronghold of Gandhi family, goes to show that the opposition’s criticism of Modi’s policies on demonetisation and slogans like ‘chowikar chor hai’ did not have support because voters were looking for decisive leadership. The only state that Congress gained in was Punjab under Capt Amarinder Singh.The Modi government’s welfare schemes like building toilets, cooking gas connections, housing and rural electrification benefitted recipients who have in turn rewarded him abundantly. Some 48 million people received Mudra loans totaling crore in last four years. The underprivileged see in Modi a person who can deliver on his promises.The 100 million first time voters seem to be Modi-worshippers: rich or poor, these voters they have known only one name in national politics, someone who believes in digitalising India and is often seen hugging foreign dignitaries. They like Modi’s extrovert style, his oratory and they believe in his dream of a modern India. They felt Rahul Gandhi is no alternative.“India has won, democracy has won, and people have won,” Modi told supporters, calling his victory one of ‘hope and desires for a new India’. Hundreds of millions of Indians now look up to him to resolve national problems and enhance India’s role on the global stage.The author is Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi.

Tsu-namo 2.0 and Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a419a9c7e80680e04a684jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="506"/><figcaption>Photo: PROJECT SYNDICATE AFP</figcaption></figure>NEW DELHI – What role has social media played in India’s election?Conventional wisdom had it that, in the Indian context, one should always be sceptical about the reach and political impact of social media. But with some 625 million Internet users in India, and upwards of 80% of Internet use on mobile phones, there could have been 625 million pairs of eyes looking at social media during the 2019 election, nearly eight times more than in 2014.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/tsu-namo-2-0-and-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tsu-namo 2.0 and Nepal</a>, Akanshya ShahThough I was a Twitter pioneer among Indian politicians, my own view is that no<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/at-ground-zero-in-indias-election-heartland/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Indian election</a> can be won or lost on social media alone. While perhaps above 40% of voters use social media, there are no reliable studies of how frequently they use it for political news and views. They could be in WhatsApp group chats or sharing Facebook snaps of their beach weekend, rather than debating the merits of the political parties. There’s still no substitute for mass rallies, street-corner addresses, door-to-door canvassing, handshakes at marketplaces and busy junctions, and Jeep-top tours.Twitter, the most ‘political’ of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/election-campaign-on-social-media,3712" target="_blank" rel="noopener">social media</a>, has only 30 million active users in India. It is dwarfed by Facebook and WhatsApp, with over 240 million active users each. And, given parliamentary constituencies of some two million people, Twitter is of little help in political mobilisation. Twitter would be useless for organising a mass rally, it cannot be a substitute for conventional <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">campaigning</a>.Nonetheless, political parties turned to social media during this election. Aside from its usefulness for issuing messages through memes, digital posters and WhatsApp forwards, social media’s indirect impact (as a source for ‘mainstream’ media stories) makes it an indispensable communications tool for politicians. And that’s where the trouble starts.WhatsApp is the favoured medium because 82% of India’s mobile phone users have downloaded the app, and because it is targeted to specific people. A political party can create groups defined by their interests, caste or religious identity, or by a specific issue or cause, and bombard them with messages to reinforce their biases and convince them the party is with them. The ruling BJP is the master of this technique, running an estimated half-million WhatsApp groups across the country. Its IT cell head, Amit Malviya, declared in March: “The upcoming elections will be fought on the mobile phone… In a way, you could say they would be a WhatsApp election.”The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18837#.XOacqVIzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">use of social media</a> is not always benign. Disinformation is rife on the BJP groups, including concocted accounts of what leading Congress politicians (including me) have said and photoshopped images portraying traitorous behavior by opposition leaders. ‘Fake news’ exists because it has been manufactured to serve the political interests of its disseminators. The BJP’s attitude is that all is fair in love, war, and politics, but Indian democracy has become collateral damage.WhatsApp took steps to limit the damage, restricting forwards, for example, to just five recipients in order to impede lies from going viral. It blocked numbers identified by the Election Commission as spreaders of ‘fake news’. Guilty parties quickly find alternative numbers and create more groups, however. The BJP benefits from vast armies of people, paid and volunteers, whose job is to feed the WhatsApp groups.The fears of democrats are not unfounded: people have been killed on the basis of fake WhatsApp rumours. Social media offers a marvelously useful set of communication tools that democratises public opinion. But in the hands of unscrupulous politicians who see it as a means of manipulation, social media can undermine democracy itself. Once you have voted for the wrong people on the basis of false information, there is nothing you can do about it until the next election. In that fact lies the danger posed by social media to Indian – and not only Indian – democracy.© Project SyndicateShashi Tharoor, a former UN under-secretary-general and former Indian Minister for External Affairs, is currently an Indian National Congress MP. He is the author of Pax Indica: India and the World of the 21st Century.

India’s new social media politics

<figure><img width="1400" height="1011" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a252a9c7e80680e0439b3jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Venezuela is in the news worldwide for US-backed attempts to bring down the Nicolas Maduro government, but it is making headlines in Nepal because of conflicting statements by the ruling party and the government on a country on the other side of the world. NCP co-Chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal issued a harshly-worded statement condemning US ‘imperialism’, and he did it while Prime Minister K P Oli was in Davos trying to make the West forget that Nepal has a Communist government. Asked for a clarification by the US Embassy, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs fell back on more diplomatic language. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20774&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A yam between 3 boulders</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20802&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal now has to balance not just India and China, but also the West</a>, Bhairaja Pandey<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=20801&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Eminently beneficial for India and Nepal</a>, Ajit BaralThe Venezuela controversy exposed a fault-line between ex-UML and ex-Maoist elements within the NCP. It also brought into sharp focus Nepal’s need now to balance not just its northern and southern neighbours, but also the West. The pre-1990 bipolar world has turned into a multi-polar Cold War, and analysts say Nepal needs to be more careful about not being dragged into any of the alliances. Nepal’s location makes this new geopolitics much more sensitive than ever before. China is a rising global power, India is aspiring to be the same, and America is trying to rope New Delhi into its geostrategic alliance. Nepal has to take advantage of the economic powerhouses to the north and south by hitching its wagons to the Indian and Chinese locomotives, and try to get them to pull it in the same direction. For this it needs a new coherent foreign policy strategy that does not allow outside powers to back proxies in Kathmandu.

Hitching our wagon

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171136/636934219c7e80680e03dfdajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="720"/>NEW YORK – The drama of Donald Trump’s presidency has centered around whether an extremist president would be able to carry out an extremist policy agenda against the will of the majority of Americans. So far the answer has been no, and the midterm elections make it far less likely. Yet Trump’s rising frustrations could push him over the edge psychologically, with potentially harrowing consequences for American democracy and the world.None of Trump’s extremist policy ideas has received public support. The public opposed last year’s <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/27/more-americans-favor-raising-than-lowering-tax-rates-on-corporations-high-household-incomes/">Republican-backed corporate tax cut</a>, Trump’s effort to <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/23/support-for-2010-health-care-law-reaches-new-high/">repeal the Affordable Care Act</a> (Obamacare), his <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/02/24/most-americans-continue-to-oppose-u-s-border-wall-doubt-mexico-would-pay-for-it/">proposed border wall with Mexico</a>, the decision to <a href="http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/05/07/rel5c.-.iran.pdf">withdraw</a> from the Iran nuclear agreement, and the imposition of <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/05/10/americans-are-generally-positive-about-free-trade-agreements-more-critical-of-tariff-increases/">tariff increases</a> on China, Europe, and others. At the same time, contrary to Trump’s relentless promotion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), the public favors <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/23/two-thirds-of-americans-give-priority-to-developing-alternative-energy-over-fossil-fuels/">investments in renewable energy</a> and <a href="http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/paris_agreement_by_state/">remaining</a> in the Paris climate agreement.Trump has tried to implement his radical agenda using three approaches:<ol><li>To rely on the Republican majorities in the two houses of Congress to pass legislation in the face of strong popular opposition. That approach succeeded once, with the 2017 corporate tax cut, because big Republican donors insisted on the measure, but it failed with Trump’s attempt to repeal Obamacare, as three Republican senators balked.</li> 	<li>To use executive orders to circumvent Congress. Here the courts have repeatedly intervened, most recently within days of the election, when a federal district court <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/09/climate/judge-blocks-keystone-pipeline.html">halted work on the Keystone XL Pipeline</a>, a project strongly opposed by environmentalists, on the grounds that the Trump administration had failed to present a “reasoned explanation” for its actions. Trump repeatedly and dangerously oversteps his authority, and the courts keep pushing back.</li> 	<li>To rally public opinion to his side. Yet, despite his frequent rallies, or perhaps because of them and their incendiary vulgarity, <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx?g_source=link_newsv9&amp;g_campaign=item_203198&amp;g_medium=copy">Trump’s disapproval rating</a>has exceeded his approval rating since the earliest days of his administration. His current overall disapproval rating is 54%, versus 40% approval, with strong approval from around 25% of the public.</li></ol>In the midterm elections, which Trump himself described as a referendum on his presidency, the Democratic candidates for both the House and Senate <a href="https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2018/results/hq">vastly outpolled</a> their Republican opponents. In the House races, Democrats received 53,314,159 votes nationally, compared with 48,439,810 for Republicans. In the Senate races, Democrats outpolled Republicans by 47,537,699 votes to 34,280,990.Nonetheless, the Republicans hold a slight majority in the Senate, where each state is represented by two senators, regardless of the size of its population, because they tend to win their seats in less populous states, whereas Democrats prevail in the major coastal and Midwestern states. Wyoming, for example, elects two Republican senators to represent its nearly 580,000 residents, while California’s more than 39 million residents elect two Democratic senators. Democrats win more votes, but Republicans win more seats.Without control of the House, however, Trump will no longer be able to enact any unpopular legislation. Only policies with bipartisan support will have a chance of passing both chambers.On the economic front, Trump’s trade policies will become even less popular in the months ahead as the American economy cools from the “sugar high” of the corporate tax cut, as growing uncertainty about global trade policy hamstrings business investment, and as both the budget deficit and interest rates rise. Trump’s phony national-security justifications for raising tariffs will also be challenged politically and perhaps in the courts.True, Trump will be able to continue appointing conservative federal judges and most likely win their confirmation in the Republican-majority Senate. And on issues of war and peace, Trump will operate with terrifyingly little oversight by Congress or the public, an affliction of the US political system since World War II. Trump, like his recent predecessors, will most likely keep America mired in wars in the Middle East and Africa, despite the lack of significant public understanding or support.Nonetheless, there are three further reasons to believe that Trump’s hold on power will weaken significantly in the coming months. First, Special Counsel Robert Mueller may very well document serious malfeasance by Trump, his family members, and/or his close advisers. Mueller kept a low profile in the run-up to the election. We will most likely hear from him soon.Second, the House Democrats will begin to investigate Trump’s taxes and personal business dealings, including through congressional subpoenas. There are strong reasons to believe that Trump has committed serious tax evasion (as the New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-tax-schemes-fred-trump.html">recently outlined</a>) and has illegally enriched his family as president (a lawsuit that the courts have <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/02/politics/donald-trump-emoluments-clause-dc-maryland/index.html">allowed to proceed</a> alleges violations of the emoluments clause of the Constitution). Trump is likely to ignore or fight the subpoenas, setting the stage for a major political crisis.Third, and most important, Trump is not merely an extremist politician. He suffers from what author Ian Hughes has <a href="https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07H44BMM6/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&amp;btkr=1">recently</a> called “a disordered mind,” filled with hate, paranoia, and narcissism. According to two close observers of Trump, the president’s grip on reality “<a href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/27/inside-the-mind-of-donald-trump-219074">will likely continue to diminish</a>” in the face of growing political obstacles, investigations into his taxes and business dealings, Mueller’s findings, and an energized political opposition. We may already be seeing that in Trump’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/09/us/politics/matthew-whitaker-donald-trump.html?smid=fb-nytimes&amp;smtyp=cur&amp;fbclid=IwAR0MxF9dqRt5w1M5HT6Gy6syoaqbsJjfg6SRlN4JhcdURUrV-btCv_pHgt4">erratic</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdFe-LmFRV8&amp;t=1s">aggressive</a> behavior since the election.The coming months may be especially dangerous for America and the world. As Trump’s political position weakens and the obstacles facing him grow, his mental instability will pose an ever-greater danger. He could explode in rage, fire Mueller, and perhaps try to launch a war or claim emergency powers in order to restore his authority. We have not yet seen Trump in full fury, but may do so soon, as his room for maneuver continues to narrow. In that case, much will depend on the performance of America’s constitutional order.  © <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/weaker-trump-more-unstable-and-dangerous-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2018-11?utm_source=Project+Syndicate+Newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=8154a24117-sunday_newsletter_18_11_2018&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-8154a24117-93570157##" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Project Syndicate</a>Jeffrey D Sachs is Professor of Sustainable Development and Professor of Health Policy and Management at Columbia University and his books include <a href="http://jeffsachs.org/books/the-end-of-poverty/">The End of Poverty</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Building-New-American-Economy-Sustainable/dp/0231184042" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Building the New American Economy</a>, <a href="https://cup.columbia.edu/book/a-new-foreign-policy/9780231547888">A New Foreign Policy: Beyond American Exceptionalism</a>.

congress