Tech billionaires such as Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk are not just among the richest people in human history. They also are exceptionally powerful socially, culturally and politically. While this is partly a reflection of the social status that our society attaches to wealth in general, what matters even more than simple wealth is that these particular billionaires are viewed as entrepreneurial geniuses who exhibit unique levels of creativity, daring, foresight and expertise on a wide range of topics. Add the fact that many of them control major means of communication through key social media platforms, and you have something almost unparalleled in recent history. Some individuals would always have more power than others, but how much power is too much? Once upon a time, power was linked to physical strength or military prowess, whereas now its perquisites usually stem from ‘persuasion power’, which, as explained in the book Power and Progress, is rooted in status or prestige. The greater your status, the more easily you can persuade others. The sources of status vary greatly across societies, as does the extent to which it is unequally distributed. In the US, status became firmly linked to money and wealth during the Industrial Revolution, and income and wealth inequality skyrocketed as a result. While there have been periods in which government intervention sought to reverse the trend, US society has always been structured around a steep status hierarchy. This structure is problematic for several reasons. For starters, the constant competition for status and the persuasion power it confers is largely a zero-sum affair, because status is a ‘positional good’. More status for you means less status for your neighbour, and a steeper status hierarchy implies that some people would be happy while many others are unhappy and dissatisfied. Moreover, investments in zero-sum activities tend to be inefficient and excessive compared with investments in non-zero-sum activities. Is it better to spend a million dollars on gold Rolex watches or on learning new skills? Both might have intrinsic value, the beauty of the watch versus the pride of acquiring new knowledge, but the first investment merely signals that you are richer and more capable of conspicuous consumption than others. The second, by contrast, increases your human capital and might also contribute to society.&nbsp; The first is largely zero-sum, and the second is largely non-zero-sum. Worse, the first can easily get out of hand as everyone spends even more on conspicuous consumption to stay ahead of others.&nbsp; Commentators often ask why someone with hundreds of millions of dollars would ever need hundreds of millions more. There are few things that you cannot afford if you already have $500 million, so why long for $1 billion? Because ‘billionaire’ is a rank of status.&nbsp; What matters is not the spending power, but the prestige and power that it confers relative to one’s peers. Under a ‘wealth is status’ equilibrium, a mad dash by the ultra wealthy to amass ever more wealth becomes inevitable. There are evolutionary and social bases for linking persuasion power to status and prestige. After all, it is individually rational to learn from people who have expertise, and it is reasonable to link expertise to success. Moreover, this form of learning is good for communities, because it facilitates coordination and a convergence toward best practices. However, when status is linked to wealth and wealth inequality grows very large, the foundation underpinning expertise starts to crumble. Consider the following thought experiment. Who has greater expertise on carpentry, a good, master carpenter or a hedge fund billionaire? It seems natural to choose the former, but the more that wealth confers status, the greater the weight attached to hedge fund billionaires’ views, even on carpentry.&nbsp; Or consider a more relevant contemporary example. Whose views on freedom of speech carry more weight today: a tech billionaire, or a philosopher who has long grappled with the issue, and whose evidence and arguments have been subjected to scrutiny by other qualified experts? Millions of people on X have implicitly chosen the former. The deeper we are drawn into the ‘wealth is status’ equilibrium, the more we might come to accept the supremacy of tech billionaires. Yet it is difficult to believe that wealth could be a perfect measure of merit or wisdom, let alone a useful proxy for authority on carpentry or freedom of speech.&nbsp; Moreover, wealth is always somewhat arbitrary. If the tech sector had not become so central to the economy and if it was not driven by such strong winner-take-all dynamics, today’s tech tycoons would not have become so rich. The fact that Gates and Musk have been taxed less does not make them any wiser, but it certainly has made them wealthier and thus more influential. French diplomat Ferdinand de Lesseps gained tremendous status in late 19th century France owing to his success in completing the construction of the Suez Canal in the face of longstanding British opposition to the project. Lesseps had foresight, and he demonstrated great skill in convincing politicians in Egypt and France that maritime international trade would become very important.&nbsp; Lesseps gained great status and prestige, but became reckless, unhinged and cocky, pushing the Panama Canal project in an unworkable direction that ultimately led to the deaths of more than 20,000 people and the financial ruin of many more (including his own family). Like all forms of power, persuasion power can make one hubristic, unrestrained, disruptive and socially obnoxious. Lesseps’ story has echoes in the behaviour of many billionaires today. While some of the wealthiest individuals do not use their wealth-derived status to influence critical public debates (think businessman Warren Buffett), many do.&nbsp; Gates, Musk, businessman George Soros and others do not hesitate to weigh in on matters that are important to them, and while it is easy to welcome such contributions from those whom we agree with, we should resist this temptation. It makes a lot of sense for society to tap into the knowledge and wisdom of those with expertise on a given topic, but it is counterproductive to amplify the status of those who already have plenty of status.&nbsp; It is not entirely the fault of billionaires that US policy is fueling massive inequality around the world. However, they should bear responsibility if they misuse the immense status that wealth affords them under conditions of rising inequality. That is especially true when they leverage their status to advance their own economic interest at the expense of others’, or to polarise an already divided society with provocative rhetoric or status-seeking behaviour. If unaccountable billionaires already wield too much undue social, cultural and political influence, the last thing we should want is to give them even bigger public forums, for example to Musk through his ownership of X. Instead, we should pursue stronger institutional means of limiting the power and influence of those who are already privileged, as well as reconsider the tax, regulatory and spending policies that created such massive disparities in the first place. The most important step would also be the most difficult. We need to start having a serious conversation about what we should value, and how we can recognise and reward the contributions of those who do not command vast fortunes.&nbsp; While most people would agree that there are many ways to contribute to society, and that excelling in one’s chosen vocation ought to be a source of individual satisfaction and the esteem of others, we have disregarded this principle and are at risk of forgetting it altogether. That, too, is a symptom of the problem. © Project Syndicate Daron Acemoglu, professor of economics at MIT is the co-winner of this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics with Simon Johnson with whom he also wrote Power and Progress: Our Thousand Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. The other winner was James Robinson.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241015091024_5a52f7a4b9be5c00a87113a400a503a0f3912f4146fe3054441da21818cea5ed.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241015091024_5a52f7a4b9be5c00a87113a400a503a0f3912f4146fe3054441da21818cea5ed" data-rendition-name="original" width="650" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Power and Progress Daron Acemoglu"> </figure>

Daron Acemoglu

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The rich get richer and more powerful

The Asia and the Pacific SDG Progress Report 2024 published by the UN’s Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) earlier this month shockingly revealed that the region will achieve all 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) only by 2062, and not by the target year of 2030. &nbsp;
While the region has taken positive steps towards eliminating poverty, and bolstering sustainable industry, innovation and infrastructure; progress in other goals related to hunger, health, clean water and sanitation, affordable and clean energy and sustainable cities and communities have been less noteworthy. These require much more political will.&nbsp;
The UN adds in a supplemental note that while the country has shown progress to meet most targets in gender, inclusion and maternal-child health, Nepal is lagging behind in SDGs #2 and #10: achieving food security and combating undernourishment, as well as in reducing inequalities within and among countries.
Translated from UN-ese, this means: many Nepalis (especially children) still go to bed hungry every night, and some Nepalis are more equal than others. &nbsp;
Chronic hunger is measured by wasting and stunting in children. One of the targets under the SDG’s second goal is to eliminate stunting and wasting in children under five. The 2023 Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates by UNICEF, WHO and the World Bank Group stated that in 2022, stunting affected 26.7% of children under five in Nepal. The Demographic Health Survey in 2022 put stunting slightly lower at 24.8% of children under five.&nbsp;
To be sure, Nepal has reduced stunting significantly from 67% in 1995, when it was one of the highest in the world, to where it is now. But that is a nationwide figure, and there are parts of Nepal that are still far behind.
In Karnali Province 36% of children under five years of age are stunted. It is 29% in Madhes Province. Despite a reduction in Nepal’s poverty rate and improvements in the national nutrition levels, hunger still persists in these areas.
Food insecurity and undernourishment do not exist in a vacuum, they are also symptoms of societal inequities. Stunting is nearly three times as high among Nepali children from the lowest wealth group than among children of richer families. &nbsp;Undernourishment is directly affected by a mother’s education level.
Inequality is widening across the world. Oxfam International’s report Inequality Inc in January stated that while the richest five men in the world have doubled their fortunes since 2020, almost five billion people globally have become poorer during the same timeframe.
But not all the news is bleak. The school meals program managed by the World Food Programme (WFP) has been crucial in providing nutritious meals to children for more than four decades. In 2022, the program directly provided school meals to more than 250,000 children in nearly 2,500 schools across the country. The Nepal government has been gradually taking over the program, and stepping up funding while making the program cash-based, allocating around 6% of the national education budget for school lunches this fiscal year.&nbsp;
The fourth Nepal Living Standards Survey was published last month and showed that the proportion of Nepalis living below the poverty line had dropped from 25.16% in 2011 to 20.27% in 2023. The Gini index for Nepal in 2023 stands at 0.30, and the survey indicates that there are larger inequalities in per capita consumption spending in urban areas.&nbsp;
The most recent study on inequality in Nepal by Oxfam and the non-profit HAMI was in 2019, which found income and wealth gap to be wide, and widening. The Nepal Living Standards Survey and it showed that the proportion of Nepalis living below the poverty line had dropped from 25.16% in 2011 to 20.27% in 2023. But the income of the richest 10% of Nepalis is more than three times that of the poorest 40%. In 2022, Nepal ranked 112 in Oxfam and Development Finance International’s Commitment to Reducing Inequality (CRI) Index, which ranks countries on their policies to tackle inequity.&nbsp;
Landlessness, corruption, and lack of access to quality public services are some of the key contributing factors to inequality in Nepal. But again, these inequalities do not exist independently of one another. Gender inequality contributes to land and economic disparity, to education and resources. One inequality compounds another.&nbsp;
The moral of the story is that hunger, inequality, exclusion, landlessness, accountability and governance are all connected. As they say in development parlance: inequality is intersectional.
Shristi Karki

More equal than others

<img width="800" height="924" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811114/636a29d09c7e80680e0458e9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>After being lampooned for extravagant, but empty, promises and criticised for having nothing concrete to show for his first year as prime minister, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/olis-1st-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">K P Oli</a> has moved quickly to address two lingering legacies of the conflict and the constitution-writing process: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sign a deal with C K Raut</a> to get him to abandon secessionism, and outlaw the hardline <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Netra Bikram Chand (Biplav)</a> faction of the Maoists. Despite misgivings and cynical comments on social platforms, the Oli administration has also won applause for its new assertiveness and a renewed sense of purpose. Read also: '<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=23156&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">No closure</a>'In the 11-point agreement signed with Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa on 24 March, Raut has committed to accept Nepal’s sovereignty and unity as well as enter the democratic mainstream. That declaration has removed the threat of ethno-separatism from plains politics, meaning that moderate Madhesi parties can now no longer fall back on Raut’s secessionist rhetoric as a bargaining chip with Kathmandu.With his Cambridge education and work in IT, Raut brings with him international exposure and perhaps a cleaner, meaner brand of politics. Anger in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-rebels-to-rulers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Province 2</a> runs deep, and the mistrust of K P Oli may have grown among Madhesi parties because of last Sunday’s deal. As David Seddon reports from Province 2, unless there are real moves towards autonomy and devolution, there may very well be other Rauts. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Only genuine devolution will douse separatism</a>, David SeddonThe surprise announcement last Sunday was not easily digestible to the opposition NC and other parties who accused Oli of a sellout. But the most vocal critic of the 11-point agreement were Oli's rivals within the NCP itself: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-ship-of-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal</a> did not show it but was privately miffed that Oli had not kept him apprised, and Bhim Rawal’s main gripe was also that he was not consulted.However, we give Oli a thumbs up on this even if it is only for keeping the sensitive negotiations under wraps in the leaky corridors of Singha Darbar. Oli has shown that he likes to surprise people by pulling rabbits out of hats. For example, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-two-party-state,3968" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pre-electoral alliance in 2017</a> between the Maoists and the UML was also a bolt from the blue when announced.The agreement with Raut followed close on the heels of the Kailali District Court sentencing Resham Chaudhary to life imprisonment for the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ground-zero-in-Kailai,2538" target="_blank" rel="noopener">massacre of policemen in Tikapur</a> in August 2015, and his party the RJP-N subsequently pulling out from the governing coalition in protest. There also seems to have been some behind-the-scenes winks and nods between Baluwatar and the Supreme Court for Raut to be released from jail a day prior to the agreement.The wily Oli seems to have killed several birds with one stone with the agreement: he countered his public image of being <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/communist-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only talk and no walk</a>, neutralised the fallout of RJP-N leaving his government, and depending Raut’s future role, laid the groundwork for the next general election which will be won or lost in the Madhes.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's a crime not to call it terrorism</a>, Kunda DixitOn Biplav, although the government split hairs by saying it was not a ban on the party, only on its criminal activities, the action essentially drives the Maoist faction underground. There could be two reasons for this: the ruling NCP wants to keep the door open for negotiations, or ex-Maoists in the ruling party used to be buddies of Biplav and just want to pretend to go after him. After all, Biplav is now using the same tactics of extortion and violence they used at the beginning of the insurgency in 1996. Even so, by publicly calling the Biplav party a “gang of looters” Prime Minsiter Oli has thrown the gauntlet.The Maoists were already semi-underground, and owned up to three bomb attacks in the capital last month that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/innocent-life-lost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">killed one person</a>, and set fire to more than a dozen Ncell towers across the country. The government was challenged, and there was no other way for it to respond but warn that criminal activities will no longer be tolerated.With both the Raut deal and the warning to Biplav, the government now needs to show that it means business. A ruling party that can bring a separatist force to the negotiating table should easily be able to convince former comrades-at-arms to give up violence. While doing that, the government should also try to win the hearts and minds of the people of Province 2, expedite political devolution and remove grievances that feed extremism.As far as the Maoists are concerned, they are cashing in on disillusionment among the people with the NCP’s poor governance and corruption. The root cause of extremism is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme inequality</a>, and unless there are moves towards social justice, Nepal will continue to be unstable. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> The week that the NCP government made up of ex-Maoists signed an agreement with Madhesi activist CK Raut to renounce separatism, is as good a time as any to look back at <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/442" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #442 of 13-20 March 2019</a> which dealt the beginnings of unrest in the Madhes for more autonomy. Excerpt from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15746#.XJSGlCIzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Editorial</a>:‘The continuing Tarai unrest, brewing discontent among groups demanding self-determination, intractable tension within the party leading the coalition, the inability of the state to protect its citizens and improve their lives -- these are just some of the crises Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal faces. And all the time, he has to prevent the peace process from being derailed and keep to the timetable on the constitution. The job would have been difficult even if there was a consensus government, the coalition partners loved each other, the bureaucracy was clean and efficient and there was no looming global depression. What makes Dahal’s job immensely more difficult is that his party is still behaving like it is in the jungles, and Kathmandu’s politicians act as if they are still in the era of self-centred coalition politics of the 1990s.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/442"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811114/636a29d39c7e80680e0458eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="510" height="815"></a>

Two  extremities

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811114/636a29cc9c7e80680e0458e8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>Bikram Rai</figcaption></figure>Just as the government was defusing one crisis by getting Madhesi activist <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CK Raut to renounce separatism</a> last Sunday, it was faced with another explosive situation created by breakaway Maoist radicals.The ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is made up of ex-UML and erstwhile Maoists, but the faction that enforced a nationwide shutdown on Thursday calls itself the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN). Its leader <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/extortion-in-a-federal-state/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Netra Bikram Chand (Biplav)</a> was mentored by NCP co-Chair and Maoist supremo Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and was once comrade-in-arms of Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa. Biplav is now using the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">same tactics of violence and extortion</a> that the Maoists perfected at the start of the war in the 1990s.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=23164&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Two  extremities</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/only-genuine-devolution-will-douse-separatism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Only genuine devolution will douse separatism</a>, David Seddon Thursday’s shutdown affected movement on highways, closed schools and industries throughout the country, although the impact was not felt on traffic in Kathmandu Valley (pictured above). The closures were enforced with terror, but a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/innocent-life-lost/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fatal bombing at Ncell earlier</a> this month had already convinced the public that Biplav meant business. The party has been openly extorting businesses as well as local governments across the country.Security sources told Nepali Times they had shared intelligence about CPN recruitment drives and militia training, and had warned the government about the group’s preparations ahead of the recent arson and bombing spree.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/its-a-crime-not-to-call-it-terrorism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It’s a crime not to call it terrorism</a>, Kunda DixitNow, the NCP is finally taking the CPN seriously. On Tuesday the Cabinet outlawed the activities of the party, saying that it was a criminal entity, not a political party. Ministers said they were forced to take the step after the semi-underground group refused the government’s offer of talks. Dahal even declared that he faced a threat to his life from his former protégés.Biplav brushed off the ban, calling it ‘ridiculous’ and adding in a statement on Wednesday that ‘extortion was a fundamental right … necessary for the nation and people’.  Security forces have in the past month seized assault rifles and other weapons from CPN cadre in Dharan and Rupendehi, tracing them back to former guerrillas who absconded from UN-supervised camps with weapons after the ceasefire.By attacking a Malaysian telecom company and threatening Indian hydropower projects in Nepal, Biplav has thrown a direct challenge to the government ahead of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-inc/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Investment Summit 29-30 March</a>, during which the government hopes to attract <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/making-nepal-fdi-friendly,853" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign investments</a> on hydropower projects.With the CK Raut deal and the warning on Biplav, the government is trying to show that it is willing to negotiate, but will not tolerate violence. Some within the ruling party are asking why if Prime Minister Oli can bring a separatist force to the negotiating table, it is taking so long for him to tame the NCP.After mainstreaming Raut, the government now needs to expedite political devolution in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-rebels-to-rulers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Province 2</a>. The root cause of extremism is exclusion and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inequality</a>, and Nepal will continue to be unstable as long as these injustices are not addressed.

No closure

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110811110/636a29269c7e80680e0458adjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1197"/>Last week, women engineers and managers in power utilities from across South and Southeast Asia gathered in Kathmandu for their first ever conference. They came from Afghanistan, Vietnam and countries in between.As more and more women are building and managing energy plants in power hungry Asia, these work places will have to be women friendly. The entire ecosystem from science and technology education to recruiting and retaining women in the energy sector were discussed at the Kathmandu meeting. We heard about women who struggled to rise up their career ladder and the prices they paid for it, including family separation.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/3-4th-of-the-sky/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">3/4th of the sky</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/staying-alive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Staying alive</a>, Sewa BhattaraiTraditionally, women have an exalted place in Nepal. We worship the female attributes in the form of the Nava Durgas and the Asta Matrikas. We celebrate the life of Maya Devi, the mother of the Buddha, Sita, daughter of King Janak and Bhrikuti, the queen of the ruler of Tibet.Today, four years after the earthquake and failed attempts by men, Rani Pokhari is going to be restored by the women of Bhaktapur. We have trekking companies run by women for women. We may soon see pink taxis with women drivers for women passengers like in east Europe.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-house-for-the-nepali-family/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The house for the Nepali family</a>, Sewa Bhattarai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/making-gods-for-a-living/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Making gods for a living</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/surviving-the-aftermath/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Surviving the aftermath</a>, Sonam Choeyki Lama<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/staying-positive/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Staying positive</a>, Sewa BhattaraiNot too long ago, Nepal had a woman chief justice, a woman speaker of the house and a woman President of the republic. A woman CDO has just taken charge in Jumla. Women are in line to be secretaries and directors in many ministries and government agencies. The head of FNCCI is a woman.More and more girls are in school and the dropout rate in east Nepal, for example, is higher for boys than girls. In colleges and universities, here and globally, there are more women than men. This is partly because boys are absorbed into the job market more quickly. From Bhaktapur to Dhangadi, all deputy mayors are women. In four years they could all become mayors. Pokhara will probably be represented in parliament by the late Rabindra Adhikari’s wife.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kathmandus-past-for-the-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Saving Kathmandu's past for future</a>, Sonia AwaleWith the men having migrated overseas for work, rural Nepal is being rapidly feminised. All aspects of the social and economic life are being led and managed by women. Many women have also left their villages, in-laws and small pieces of land to go to cities to educate their children, paid for by remittance money from their husbands.More and more land is being registered in the name of women and the reduced tax for them is working as an incentive to accelerate this process across Nepal. This may be a good time to revisit the process of aggregating fragmented fertile land and initiating commercial and contract farming. It is also time to go for high value crops for cash and no longer for subsistence.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/learning-about-teaching/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Learning about teaching</a>, Prakriti KandelNepali women have shown that given the opportunity and a level playing field, they excel in every field. They climb the highest peaks, they run the most successful businesses, they are in the army, police and in banks. They are doctors, engineers, teachers and administrators. As more and more men leave the villages and cities for work abroad, women are taking charge.This must not be seen as a default but a real opportunity to empower Nepal’s women. We need to change our perceptions and mindset, and stop saying that the particular opportunity went to a person only because she was a woman. At the current pace of feminisation, within a decade or so Nepal may well have to institute affirmative action for men.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc

Anil Chitrakar

Nepal’s better halves

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904309c7e80680e037d09jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="930"/><figcaption>NAKED TRUTH: Sabitri Subedi (standing with mike) and Diya Bhandari struggle with police during a demonstration last week in Kathmandu against the government's inaction against rising cases of rape in the country. The protesters called for the death penalty for rapists. Pic: Bijay Rai</figcaption></figure>A n June 2014, police arrested hotel owner Lekhnath Bhandari in Butwal for raping a 14-year-old girl who was his housemaid.During police interrogation, Bhandari admitted to having raped the girl repeatedly. She was pregnant with a seven-month baby when he was caught.But Bhandari never went to jail, he got a Dalit man to marry the girl who is now raising a four-year-old baby.During the trial, Bhandari’s lawyers claimed police coerced him to confess to the rape and that his sexual relationship was consensual. Public prosecutors argued it was still rape because she was a minor, and produced a birth certificate which showed the girl was born on 10 January 1999 and was just 14 years old when Bhandari forcibly had sex with her. But defence lawyers presented a fake birth certificate, claiming she was born on 1 November 1995, and so had already turned 19 at the time of the crime.The new document was issued by a local VDC three days after Bhandari’s arrest, but the court still gave more credence to that dodgy document rather than the girl’s original birth certificate. The judge ruled she was not raped but had consensual sex with her employer. The Appellate Court upheld the District Court’s verdict, but the Supreme Court, acting on a writ petition, recently agreed to re-examine the case. The girl is still waiting for justice.Bhandari used his money and his proximity to political power to get himself off the hook, making this an iconic case, emblematic of the state of impunity in Nepal today.Activists say cases like these embolden men to assault, rape and even murder women and girls without ever answering for their crimes, leading to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/four-fold-increase-in-reported-rape-in-10-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the current epidemic of rape in Nepal</a>.Read also: "<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11895&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Republic of Rape</a>"Writer and activist Sabitri Gautam says: “Only a few rapists are taken to court, and even if they do, they are released on bail. This erodes the faith of survivors on the justice system, and sends the message to men that they can get away with rape.”The number of rape cases recorded by police nationwide has increased four times in the last decade -- totaling 1,131 rape cases last year, which is almost three rapes a day.In 2013, a UN report estimated that 74% Nepali women have been raped, sexually assaulted or abused. A recent report by Red Cross Nepal shows rapes are on the rise, especially in areas affected by the 2015 earthquake, where hundreds of thousands of families still live in flimsy shelters.But most <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/no-country-for-women/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">victims prefer to remain silent</a>, which shows their lack of faith in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-does-the-nepali-media-cover-rape/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the justice system. Only the most extreme cases grab headlines</a> and spark protests on the streets like the ones that followed the murder of a 13-year-old girl last month in Kanchanpur district in far-western Nepal. A post-mortem showed she was raped before being choked to death in a sugarcane field. Police caught a mentally unstable person this week, but family members say they have been pressured by police to accept him as the perpetrator, and that the police are not going after the real criminal.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=11944&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The roots of rape</a>, Kedar SharmaA photo of the girl’s body published in some mainstream dailies outraged the nation, and as the anger against impunity grew some women activists demonstrated in Kathmandu this weekend, slamming the government for not doing enough to go after rapists, and demanding the death penalty for the crime.After the Kanchanpur rape-murder, MPs across party lines tabled a resolution in Parliament to take urgent and stringent measures to prevent rape. But Speaker Krishna Bahadur Mahara put the resolution on hold for weeks, reportedly at the behest of Prime Minister K P Oli.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/perpetrators-of-sexual-violence-walk-free-women-remain-silent,1768" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rape as a weapon of War</a>, Tufan NeupaneNepali Congress MP Pushpa Bhusal says: “Parliament was not even allowed to debate the resolution, which shows the government is not really serious about controlling the widespread cases of rape.”The controversial Criminal Code which came into effect on 17 August also has provisions that could actually encourage rapists. A person found guilty of raping his wife can be imprisoned up to five years under the new law. Previously, it was a minimum of three years of imprisonment.Explains Advocate Sushma Gautam: “Up to five years could also mean just a day in prison.”Under the previous Muluki Ain, the statute of limitation was 35 days, and that has been extended to a year. But activists say even one year is too short for minors and children who may be intimidated by perpetrators.“Some girls are repeatedly raped since their childhood, and they need time to overcome the trauma and fight for justice,” says Gautam, “for them, one year is not enough time.”Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19884#.W36TR84zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rape for ransom</a>, Shatrudhan Kumar Shah<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/rape-incest-behind-closed-doors,2546" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Behind closed doors</a>, Namrata Sharma and Aruna Uprety<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904339c7e80680e037d0ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="524"><h4>Land for rape</h4><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904349c7e80680e037d0bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="910">Devi Prasad Subedi of Bardia is a notorious criminal. In 2008, he was caught by neighbours after raping a 13-year-old girl. He admitted to the crime, but never went to jail.A local mediating committee allowed Subedi, then 45, to go free after he agreed in writing (above) to give a portion of his property to the victim’s father. No one asked the girl whether she was happy to settle the case for a small plot of land.Three years later, 22-year-old Sitaram Tharu raped a 16-year-old girl in the same village. But, like Subedi, he did not go to jail either. Because of the precedent, locals settled the case after the rapist’s family agreed to transfer a parcel of land worth Rs50,000 to the victim’s family.(Names are obscured to protect the identity of the victim.)<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904379c7e80680e037d0cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="447"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904399c7e80680e037d0djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="446"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369043b9c7e80680e037d0ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="445"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369043c9c7e80680e037d0fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="449"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/6369043e9c7e80680e037d10jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="447">Binda Pandey, MP (NCP)MPs across party lines have come together to register a resolution in Parliament to instruct the government about actions to be taken to address the question of rape. It contains four provisions: for all people’s representatives to raise their voices against rape and other forms of sexual violence, punishment to the perpetrator and justice, treatment, rehabilitation and compensation for the victim. Debate on the proposal has been delayed because of other matters, the ball is now in the Speaker’s court.Sabitri Gautam, WriterSociety describes a rape victim as having ‘lost her honour’. Actually it should be the rapist who should feels dishonoured. The victim has the right to return to normal life without fear, intimidation or stigmatisation. Rapists may be taken to the courts, but they are released on bail. Perpetrators walk free, while victims have to relive their trauma over and over again in the court. Many victims find it too overwhelming and let it be, encouraging impunity. The Home Minister needs to answer these questions in Parliament.Sushma Gautam, AdvocateOne issue of vital importance in rape cases is the statute of limitation. Rape cases had to be registered within 35 days of the crime; this was impractical and it deprived women of justice. After a long struggle, it was increased to six months, and the latest Criminal Code has increased it to one year. Incest victims, especially, should be able to lodge a complaint even after attaining adulthood. Other loopholes in the Code need revision, including what constitutes marital rape.Ganga Pathak, PsychologistSex education must start at home, parents and teachers need to be involved, Many patients come to me for counseling for depression, anxiety, abnormal behaviour or having bad grades, but the real the reason could be sexual abuse. The child may have been abused by her uncle or brother, but does not open up because of disgrace to the family. It is better to focus on not allowing rape to happen rather than addressing the punishment after the crime has been committed.Ayushma Regmi, TeacherIt is clear from many crimes that rapes are usually committed by a known person, someone the victim trusts, perhaps even friends or relatives. But as a teacher, how am I to tell my students not to trust their guardians or relatives? Sex education should also include information on rape, good touch/bad touch, and about being able to say ‘no’. I am worried about talk of ‘protecting women’. Instead of empowering, such an approach may be portraying women as being even weaker.

Justice for Sale

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.