The Gadimai Partnership Forest extends 4,150 hectares in Parsa district bordering a nature reserve adjacent to Chitwan National Park.&nbsp; Half of Gadimai Forest is made up of hardwood species like sal, sisau and khayar that have high commercial value. <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17226">Illegal logging</a> by timber smugglers on the Indian border is now thinning the jungle. &nbsp; An on site investigation earlier this year confirmed what was seen on Google Earth Pro satellite images. We saw more than 30 tree stumps deep inside the forest with scars in the undergrowth showing where the logs had been dragged away from the once-healthy stands. &nbsp; Comparing satellite images of the forest in 2008 and 2021 show a significant loss of forest area as well as reduction in canopy cover in the last 13 years (pictured, above). Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-peace-in-post-conflict-countries-forest-cover">The cost of peace in post-conflict countries: forest cover</a>, Dilrukshi Handunnetti “Our staff have not been able to adequately monitor the forest because of the presence of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/better-nepal-china-connectivity-helps-wildlife-smugglers">smugglers </a>in the Sonbarsha and Koilabhar Bindabasini regions,” says Gadimai Forest Management Committee chair Shahrum Gaddi. “We have seen a rise in illegal logging since the pandemic.” &nbsp; The annual report of Parsa’s Division Forest Office cites smuggling of timber to India from Gadimai and two other community forests in the district.&nbsp; Community forestry is considered Nepal’s biggest conservation success story and is internationally acclaimed. It was the main reason Nepal’s forest cover which at present is 46% <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">doubled in 25 years</a>. Communities have managed forests relatively better in the mountains, but in the Tarai it has been less successful because of the abundance of expensive hardwood timber and proximity to India.&nbsp; Forest cover could be further undermined by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/not-out-of-the-woods-yet-in-nepal">an amendment of the 1973 National Parks and Wildlife Conservation Act in Parliament this week.</a> Global Land Analysis and Google Earth Pro images show deforestation of the 13,512 hectares of Sagarnath Forest Development Project in Mahottari, Sarlahi and Rautahat districts. The project began in 1978 and involved planting fast-growing saplings of sal, sisau, and eucalyptus to increase timber production, but much of the sal and khayar stands have been logged from within these forests. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240914140936_c9a32b23ff453bce7bd9be53de61b9c43f185a45941df8711a8490f345511b9f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240914140936_c9a32b23ff453bce7bd9be53de61b9c43f185a45941df8711a8490f345511b9f" data-rendition-name="original" width="961" height="640" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's Forest Cover in 1992"> </figure>  Sarlahi resident Rajnikanth Jha, who is a central member of the Federation of Community Forestry Users Nepal (FECOFUN) blames collusion between Sagarnath Forest Development Project staff, government agencies, politicians and the “forest mafia”.&nbsp; In March 2024, Brahmapur Community Forestry User Committee president Manoj Tamang was arrested on charges of smuggling sal logs. The Division Forest Office (DFO) also charged Tek Bahadur Basnet, Aashish Tamang and Heralu Pemba Tamang of the committee.&nbsp; Another community forest in Lalbandi of Mahottari, which was once just 2km from Jha’s house has now receded 6km away due to encroachment and illegal logging. He says that Nepal’s forest cover may have doubled, but the eastern Tarai has lost half the area of national forests.&nbsp; “From the highway the forest may look thick and lush, but if we go deeper into the forests most of the trees have been stripped bare,” says Jha. Forest researcher Nagendra Prasad Yadav estimated eight years ago that the Tarai jungles were being destroyed at the rate of 0.96%, equal to 1,756 hectares per year. Given the evidence on the ground, that rate is sure to have increased.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds">Nepal must save Nijgad Forest to receive climate funds</a>, Kashish Das Shrestha In Parsa alone, one estimate said illegal timber worth over Rs5 million was smuggled out every month. The DFO does nab smugglers from time to time, and cases were filed against 66 loggers, but it is the tip of the iceberg and those caught are mainly the hired workers. The Madhes Province Forest Directorate says 931 illegal logging cases were filed in the courts last year, and 523 were arrested – mostly in Bara, Parsa and Rautahat districts which have more forest cover than other eastern Tarai districts. Global Forest Watch estimates Nepal lost 4,570 hectares of ‘biologically important’ dense forest between 2002 and 2023 due to encroachment and smuggling.&nbsp; “There is inadequate protection and not enough rangers and police to guard the national, community, and partnership forests,” says Parsa-based journalist Ram Mandal. The reason is lack of budget and often collusion between local politicians and their criminal cronies. In Gadimai Forest, Shahrum Gaddi says he receives frequent death threats after timber smugglers are caught, and elected local government officials pressure him to release them.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240914140936_53d1bc3e84dabe6294f8b9b39175f28342ad46c24b4651b6cb33eaf28e230e10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240914140936_53d1bc3e84dabe6294f8b9b39175f28342ad46c24b4651b6cb33eaf28e230e10" data-rendition-name="original" width="655" height="504" loading="lazy" alt="Madhes Province illegal logging districts NT"> </figure>  “The police do nothing while logging and smuggling is happening right under their noses, they only show up after we have been assaulted by smugglers and after all the timber has been taken across the border,” adds Gaddi, who says he has written to the CIAA, Hello Sarkar, DFOs, as well as the Ministry of Forests. There has been no response from any of them.&nbsp; In 2021, timber traffickers injured four forest staff and looted their weapons during a clash in Bara’s Pipara, and were arrested soon after. Former FECOFUN president Bharati Pathak says smugglers set off fires in forests, steal logs and poach wildlife, by pretending to put out wildfires. “There is an established but under-the-radar network involved in illegal activities that must have smuggled millions of cubic feet of timber from the forests by now,” says Pathak. &nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/safeguarding-the-soul-of-sal">Safeguarding the soul of sal</a>, Lila Nath Sharma This network takes the logs to sawmills near the Indian border under the cover of night, then transports the wood planks across to Bihar. Trafficking gangs also use bicycles, tyre carts, tractors, vans, and trucks full of sand to smuggle timber, even modifying the vehicles to fit the logs in many cases. Sometimes, the logs are also floated down river into India.&nbsp; Says Rajnikanth Jha of FECOFUN: “Infrastructure, expansion of settlements and timber smuggling are destroying our trees. If this continues there will be no forest left outside national parks in the Tarai.” &nbsp;&nbsp; This article was written in collaboration with The Environmental Reporting Collective.

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The Tarai’s shrinking forests

<figure><img width="1400" height="1050" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12239c7e80680e0a98bejpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Chitlang, Makwanpur. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba announced at COP26 last week that Nepal would increase forest cover to 45% of its area by 2030 when he along with the leaders of 124 countries signed the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use pledging to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation.Presently just over 37% of Nepal's area is covered in forest, and the country's successful track record in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reversing deforestation and championing community-based forestry</a> makes this an area where Nepal can leverage its past experience to achieve the new target in the next nine years.Killian Dumont and Rastraraj Bhandari spoke with Giri Raj Panta, a Forest Officer at the Sub-division Forest Office in Bardaghat, Nawalparasi West, about the opportunities, needs and challenges of forest conservation and water management in Nepal in light of the new targets.Nepali Times: How did your career in community forestry begin?  <figure><img width="300" height="300" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12269c7e80680e0a98bfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Giri Raj Panta: I grew up on a farm surrounded by trees and nature, and as I got older I was exposed to the movement for community forestry in Nepal. This inspired me to get into natural resource management as a career.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Community forestry</a> was just beginning when I was a young civil servant. I was initially stationed in Gulmi district, and my job was to just plant trees. Soon, I was sent to lead the forest department in the adjoining district of Baglung after their forest ranger was ousted for being corrupt.The working environment there was very hostile, and to address this issue, I worked extensively with the local stakeholders, developed user groups to listen to the needs of the villagers, and started distributing seedlings for free. This was a need-based, people-centric development model that ran counter to the more traditional forest-centric development in Nepal. But it was the right path forward for community forestry.Over the course of my career, I have helped <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/catching-children-young-in-green-schools/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">plant thousands of tree saplings</a>, and I’m proud to see that these seedlings have now grown into lush forests across the country. That’s what I love about forests and this work. It is fascinating how quickly the trees you planted with your own hands grow into vast forests which will live for hundreds of years.What was the key to Nepal’s success in community forestry?When I first started out, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/taking-away-forests-from-communities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">community forestry</a> had a lot of support from international development partners and included a participatory and bottom-up approach by the local people crucial for those relying on forests for their livelihood.At that time, some deforestation was inevitable because many people relied on trees for fuel and income. But times have changed, and alternative fuel sources are available at cheaper prices now. Society relies more on electricity than firewood, and the government has also come up with stronger policies to regulate timber.Collaborative forest management approaches like forest watchers, fencing, rotational grazing and awareness campaigns are efficient, while <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">migration from rural to urban areas has eased pressure on Nepal’s forests</a>. The pledge by Prime Minister Deuba at COP26 is very promising, and we need to adopt an integrated approach for sustainable forest management. <figure><img width="426" height="320" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12289c7e80680e0a98c0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Tree samplings in Bardghat, Nepa.</figcaption></figure>What are some of the second generation problems community forestry is facing in Nepal now?Deforestation is declining and there is now a clear vision for what we must do to protect our forests. But there are still improvements to be made. The bureaucratic process, for example, is difficult to understand, slow and complicated.In the past, the Division Forest Office controlled monitoring and accountability, but now it is in the hands of the courts which involves more actors and allows for corruption. Moreover, the courts sometimes interpret forest laws differently, and the confusion on whether forestry or criminal law should take precedence opens a major loophole for those who wish to exploit our natural resources unsustainably.Similarly, policies are not well-designed to manage privately owned forests. Not all clauses in the regulations are equally implemented in all regions. And there is no assurance that policies are implemented in the way they were designed. Too many rules and regulations can be confusing and contradictory.What can we do to resolve these issues and meet the 2030 target?We can start by creating a clear roadmap that lays out the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders. We need to streamline the legal process for holding <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17226#.YYohQ2BByUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">illegal fellers and timber poachers</a> accountable. The current process is cumbersome, costly and unreliable.As for privately owned forest, what we need for the owners is incentive, not just command and control. I hope that the target to achieve the 45% forest cover also includes privately owned forests in Nepal.In addition, it is also important to operationalise and liquidate forestry credit, and explore innovative performance-based financial products. This way, we can establish financial incentives to protect the forests and meet the target set at Glasgow.In March 2021, the Government of Nepal and the World Bank signed the Emission Reductions Payment Agreement for the Emission Reductions Program in the Tarai Arc Landscape which is a good example in this context. <figure><img width="480" height="361" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12299c7e80680e0a98c1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Forestry Training Program conducted in Nawalparasi district. </figcaption></figure>Forestry is linked to water security in Nepal. What kind of approach do we need to reduce the impact of climate crisis?Forestry, watershed management, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">biodiversity conservation</a> are all interlinked in a delicate ecosystem. Deforestation leads to soil erosion, which leads to increased dangers of landslides and floods. Ponds and rivers are the lifeblood of forests, and the roots of trees -- including soil-binder species such as shrubs, ground flora -- prevent the rivers from carrying away the soil.When trees die out, there is a decline in water sources. This is because forests help recharge springs, which in turn provide drinking water for wildlife and humans. The effects are visible even in weather patterns and seasonal droughts.Though there is a growing understanding of the need for an integrated approach to forest management and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/women-and-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">water security in Nepal</a>, the process remains ad-hoc. We need a more institutionalised approach to bringing these two crucial conservation goals together, as one cannot be achieved without the other. The forestry target pledged at COP26 is an opportunity look at these two issues carefully and take joint action.

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Nepal can up forest cover to 45% by 2030

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan