Nukes in the neighbourhood

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.

The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 26 Indian tourists, including a Nepali, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a nuclear retaliation.

For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from Ukraine to Israel, Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between India and Pakistan on Kargil in 1999, at least 22 Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army were killed in action.

Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, missile technology and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration. 

Research at Rutgers University has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the global food system. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to the Himalaya, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of Asia’s main rivers.

The impact of climate breakdown on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its shrinking ice cap reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.

That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (Beas, Ravi and Sutlej), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (Indus, Chenab and Jhelum. 

Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for irrigation and hydropower.  Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.

The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km. 

The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.

Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using nuclear deterrence and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions. 

This time, the Trump administration is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.

Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel,  Yemen and Syria.

India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, poverty and environmental threats. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either. 

Kunda Dixit