<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230112100132/63bfd3f59c7e80680e0d3081jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2806" height="1460"/><figcaption>Photo: JITENDRA BAJRACHARYA/ICIMOD</figcaption></figure>Deputy Director General of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) Izabella Koziell recently won the UN Women Rise and Raise Others Award. Nepali Times spoke to her about the importance of women in the climate space by empowering women to meet the challenges to the Himalaya by the climate crisis.Nepali Times: You recently won the Women Rise and Raise Others Award. How does that validate the work that you have been doing?Izabella Koziell: It’s certainly a huge honour. I started my career in dryland Tanzania and was the only woman working for the program at that time. During my career, I saw how fundamental women are to building economies and maintaining agro-biodiversity. I later joined the British government and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) where ensuring gender equality was a priority. As ICIMOD implements its new ‘Strategy 2030: Moving Mountains’ we have really put women at the heart of the program because women are largely left out in the mountain regions, and we need their leadership to move forward.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/we-have-not-respected-the-fragility-of-the-himalaya/">“We have not respected the fragility of the Himalaya”</a>Why is empowering women and women’s leadership so important in addressing the impact of climate change in the Himalaya? We all know we have a crisis on our hands. We need different kinds of transformational decisions as we move forward. Women bring diversity of thought and perspective to the table. I’m not saying that it should be only women making decisions, but we at least need that equality around the table given the challenges that we face.Read also: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; outline: 0px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Turning on the heat</a>, Ajay DixitWhat is science telling us about the impact of climate change on the Himalaya, and how is this affecting women?The impact of climate change on the Himalaya Hindu Kush mountains are really quite drastic. When we look at the science, we know that at a 1.5°C increase in global temperatures, there is going to be significant melting of the glaciers, snow, and permafrost. We also know that, at higher altitudes, 1.5°C will actually be 1.8°C since there is heightened warming at higher altitudes.Women will be more affected by the increasing incidence of disasters that are associated with climate change. Biodiversity loss will disproportionately impact women because women rely on the harvesting of various plant species at high altitudes. Lastly, when it comes to mountain economies, we know that the demographic of the mountains and high-altitude regions are majority women because men have out-migrated. However, many of the institutions and norms are not always geared to women even though women are left building their livelihoods in these mountain areas.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/time-to-walk-the-talk-on-climate-change-in-the-himalaya/">“Time to walk the talk on climate change in the Himalaya”</a>, Nepali TimesWhat are the priorities in ICIMOD’s ‘Strategy 2030: Moving Mountains? We have a new four-year plan that we’ve titled ‘Embracing Change and Accelerating Action.’ As a regional inter-governmental centre that has been in existence for almost 40 years in this region, we should play a really important role as we move forward to 2030. We have been working very hard on how we prioritise our projects because we are facing a set of unprecedented circumstances. We have decided to take our work forwards in three primary areas: the first is around reducing climate and environmental risks. The second will be on green and inclusive mountain economies. Our third focus area is looking at regional and global mechanisms for sustainable action.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/un-climate-report-declares-planetary-emergency/">UN climate report declares planetary emergency</a>, Sonia AwaleHow do we encourage young women to be climate leaders of the future?From my experience, women are fundamental to climate leadership in the future, so I wholeheartedly encourage any young woman to keep at it. It takes a lot of determination and a lot of hard work. Out of that come resilience and strength that actually puts women in a prime position to be leaders. The future has to look different. We need a lot of innovation and we need alternative thinkers. Women can bring that to the table alongside male colleagues.What have you observed in Nepal so far? Recently, I walked up Langtang Valley which is one of the most renowned tourist treks. I couldn’t help thinking how difficult the circumstances remain for many of the communities that are left up in these regions. Of course, Langtang was particularly badly hit by the earthquake and avalanche in 2015. What struck me while in Langtang is that we really need action, and we need it now.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/">Climate change is a disaster in the Nepal Himalaya</a>, Sonam Choekyi Lama

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Women of the mountains

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058599c7e80680e0ce19ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="637" height="358"/><figcaption>Dhey village, Nepal. Photos: TASHI BISTA</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/6390585b9c7e80680e0ce19bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="768" height="432"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>When reporters want to depict the impacts of the climate crisis, they go to what was once the trans-Himalayan village of Dhe (pictured above).Located in Mustang, the arid district in Nepal that juts out into Tibet and is in the Himalayan rain shadow, Dhe village has been featured in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/asia/nepal-himalayas-glacier-climate.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/asia/nepal-himalayas-glacier-climate.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0h9mNvQ4yojIJGxYWte7r5">The New York Times</a>, dissected by <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324037977_Climate_change_adaptation_measure_on_agricultural_communities_of_Dhye_in_Upper_Mustang_Nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324037977_Climate_change_adaptation_measure_on_agricultural_communities_of_Dhye_in_Upper_Mustang_Nepal&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0hAC6emznGp1IuTSTdhqwm">researchers</a>, filmed by <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCW4rZBYEP4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DVCW4rZBYEP4&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2v3fa889H7M0EG8V9bt0Xv">international documentary makers</a>, and this newspaper did <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBPfkPQT0CE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DLBPfkPQT0CE&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1-Q9WgKXeNsGsaRUFzUTmr">a multimedia package</a> on Dhe as far back as 2016.But none of these outputs have been by a Mustang native until Tashi Bista produced his film <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gOQLA5bQ6E" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3D5gOQLA5bQ6E&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2WNMYtEL1ofTK8fNvjwBIv">When Glaciers Go</a> in 2020, which profiles the inhabitants of Dhe (also spelled Dhye, or Dhey).The activist shows how a chronic water shortage caused by climate breakdown forced Dhe's relocation to a new village, Chambaleh. When Glaciers Go premiered in 2020 at the Mountain Film Festival in Telluride and was selected for the 2020 Banff Mountain Film Festival.Thanks to Bista’s film and extensive news coverage in Nepal and abroad, Dhe is one of the best-documented examples of climate migration. The immediate impact of glacial retreat, springs going dry, and prolonged winter drought in the high altitude desert region limits livelihood options for inhabitants of this fragile and harsh region.The local government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) supported Dhe’s relocation to newly developed homes and apple orchards. But many members of Dhe’s older generation find it difficult to be uprooted from their ancestral homes and traditional livelihoods.As a result, inter-generational nuclear families have split. Tashi Bista’s When Glaciers Go shows the struggle families now face traveling to-and-from Dhe to balance building new economic opportunities with maintaining strong familial ties. Despite these hurdles, the film instills viewers with a strong sense of optimism for Upper Mustang and Nepal’s rapidly changing Himalayan landscape.As world leaders tried to hammer out a new deal to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions at COP27, it is clear that human mobility driven by climate change has been happening for some time already.Nepali Times spoke to filmmaker Tashi Bista about climate migration in the Himalaya as he continues to explore and document the crisis.Nepali Times: When do people decide to move due to climate change?Tashi Bista: Climate migration started about 10 years ago in Nepal’s Annapurna Conservation Area (ACAP). I first started hearing about Dhe and the water shortage there after volunteering for a micro-finance project organised by UNDP and ACAP. From one year to the next, it’s quite hard to tell how much the water levels truly fluctuate but it is possible to track social conflict over water resources.There was, for example, conflict over who gets to water crops first and how much water could be used. Dhe’s springs and reservoirs kept drying and, as conflict became more intense, the first families began to leave. In another village, <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/agriculture/high-and-dry-in-nepal-51227" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/agriculture/high-and-dry-in-nepal-51227&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3kPfaKgjVrNtyD3ElKPmOT">Samzong</a>, people were forced to move after flash floods battered homes with debris as rainfall patterns have become more unpredictable in the past 15 years or so.https://youtu.be/eHNBhDSHM7EHave you and people in Upper Mustang perceived a change in climate?When I was growing up, there was less rain, temperatures did not fluctuate so dramatically, and glacial meltwater allowed people to irrigate their land in spring. When I was a child, Upper Mustang didn’t even have apples but warmer temperatures at higher altitudes have now enabled people to set up orchards. In addition, migratory birds flew over our villages during the harvest, but now they migrate much later since it does not get colder until later in the year. There are locusts and other bugs that never before reached Upper Mustang, and there is much less snow. It is very clear that the climate is changing.Do you believe that migration is a necessary adaptation strategy?People do not want to move, and they are emotionally shocked that they must. In When Glaciers Go, we tried to film the family tension as the grandparents stayed in Dhe but the younger generation wanted to move so that they had better livelihood options. Adapting to climate change in the same place would be ideal, but we do not yet possess the technology or knowledge to ensure quality of life in a climate-stressed environment.Why does the older generation want to stay on? Mostly, grandparents decide to stay because they cannot leave their livestock and ancestral homes. They don’t want to move after living their entire lives in the same place. Families try to travel back and forth often while the grandparents take care of the livestock. Others travel abroad and send remittances back to their families.How can society combat the climate crisis? Climate change and the need to move due to water scarcity or other climate stressors is a global phenomenon so much larger than a small village in the Himalaya. People do not want to give up their daily comforts across the globe to confront climate change, but the sacrifices are small if we act globally- turn off your lights, take shorter showers, etc.Is there government support for climate migrants?There are no subsidies for moving. The government doesn’t have a budget for climate migrants or climate change because it prioritizes education, social security, etc. When climate impacts the economy, the government may help but climate migration has not had a major economic impact yet. However, it will.How do you stay optimistic in the environmental science field?I’m quite positive for Nepal, because Nepal can easily promote the local market and we have a strong sense of community. We will fall into our own hands.What are you working on now?I continue to document climate migration in the Himalaya. I am working with a foreign film team to chronicle human-wildlife conflict post-migration in Samzong, where snow leopards now target livestock as so few people live in the original village.Watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gOQLA5bQ6E" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3D5gOQLA5bQ6E&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2WNMYtEL1ofTK8fNvjwBIv">When Glaciers Go</a> here. Also watch <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBPfkPQT0CE" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v%3DLBPfkPQT0CE&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1668518906226000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1-Q9WgKXeNsGsaRUFzUTmr">High and Dry</a>, a Nepali Times video from 2016.

Climate migration is already happening

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b569c7e80680e0c95b5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1170" height="739"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>As an unseasonal heat wave hit northern India earlier this year, Nepal Tourism Board launched a promotion campaign with the catchy Hindi slogan: “Garmi Se Behal? Chalo Nepal” (Suffering from the heat: Let’s go to Nepal).If current trends in global heating continues, that may be more than a tourism slogan.Many recent studies predict increased migration due to climate change-induced sea level rise, droughts, and extreme events. In fact, some of this is already happening in South Asia and across the world.People through history have migrated as a strategy to overcome various types of crises. Families and individuals take voluntary decisions to move to a new place, seeking a better life. Cities can act as powerful magnets for those seeking new opportunities.But increasing heat caused by the climate crisis is the new lived reality in the Indo-Gangetic plains. Rising wet-bulb temperatures (a combination of heat plus humidity) is emerging as a major health risk that could have significant socio-economic consequences such as migration.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b599c7e80680e0c95b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1200"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>An average ambient wet-bulb temperature of 35°C, if it persists for long enough, can lead to heat stress, heat stroke and even death. Sleeping outdoors at night or being in the shade cannot cool the body enough.Air conditioning can help, but low-income families cannot afford it. Surge in energy demand during recent heat waves has already caused frequent power cuts across the region as more energy for air-conditioning overloaded electricity networks.This year, I lived in New Delhi between March and June. The monthly electricity bill doubled compared to February. Increased use of air conditioning requires additional energy, which in India comes mostly from coal-fired thermal plants and add to greenhouse gas emissions.Chemical coolants used in older air conditioners models are about 7,000 times more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide. Their increased use adds to further warming.In contrast to New Delhi, Kathmandu during this time felt naturally air-conditioned. But even Kathmandu Valley with higher humidity than in the past was uncomfortably hot in August and September. There were occasional power-cuts, and it was difficult to sleep without fans.Rising average global temperatures, heat island effects, and the degradation of natural ecosystems like water bodies and green spaces, combined with the added moisture in the air, will likely lead to increased heat in the Indo-Gangetic plains, Nepal’s Tarai and valley towns.So, will the rising average summer temperatures and heat in the Ganga plains and across the Indian landmass lead to increased migration to the cooler upland Himalayan areas in future?Theoretically, people may move to cooler regions like Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Darjeeling, as well as the mountains of Nepal and Bhutan. Just like when the British ruled India, they moved seasonally to ‘hill stations’ like Darjeeling, Shimla, and Nainital to avoid summers in the plains. When and how could that happen?Traditional migration patterns, however, have been the opposite, where people from the hills move to the cities in the plains for jobs and better economic opportunities.But during the summer, the Tarai and valley towns in the hills of Nepal will also get hot and humid. Temperatures are expected to rise in the Himalaya as well.There are other unknowns: How many people will move? Will it be internally from the Tarai plains, hot river valleys, or will people also cross national boundaries? Answers to these questions can have mind-boggling social and political implications.In the meantime, it may be worthwhile to reflect on past experience of the potential impact of mass tourism on sensitive Himalayan ecosystems so that we can take ameliorative action.Increasing heat will impact people’s ability to work, grow food, and seek health care. It will hurt the poor and elderly the most. In Nepal, we have not yet recognised increasing heat as a potential problem– both in terms of threats in the Tarai and river valleys, and the environmental implications of possible move of people up the mountains.There has been no systematic research of this issue. The least we can do is start to talk about it.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) Nepal.

Garmi Se Behal? Chalo Nepal.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b6c9c7e80680e0c95bcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Farmers in Bihar, across the border from Nepal, tending to their parched fields (left). Climate change will not just lead to droughts and floods, but also unsurvivable heat waves. Photo: NABIN BARAL / THE THIRD POLE</figcaption></figure>Kim Stanley Robinson’s cli-fi novel The Ministry for the Future begins with an unprecedented heatwave in northern India. Air conditioners and fans stop working because of power cuts, water runs out, and more than 20 million people die.The same dystopian future is the subject of Gaia Vince’s new book Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World. But Vince’s book is not science fiction — it looks at mass migrations from the most densely-populated parts of the world because of unsurvivable heat waves.‘Fleeing the tropics, the coasts and formerly arable lands, huge populations will need to seek new homes. You will be among them, or you will be receiving them,’ Vince predicts. The heat waves in India, China, Europe and North America this summer were hints of what may be in store.Scientists are predicting that if the buildup of greenhouse gases continues at the present rate, average global temperatures will cross 2°C by 2050, and could reach a sizzling 4°C by the end of the century.The heat impact on South Asia, especially the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains, would be unthinkable, and will be accompanied by sea level rise that could submerge coastal cities, and millions will be hit by floods and droughts.Vince predicts that large swathes of the globe will be uninhabitable, leaving no choice for at least 5 billion people but to move either to higher latitude or altitude.The scenario is so apocalyptic that Robinson in his novel imagines a future in which world governments are finally shocked into action by the mass deaths in northern India. And Vince advocates preparing for future migrations because it is not a question of if, but when, where and how many.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b6f9c7e80680e0c95bdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="478" height="524"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Migration mitigation</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie WangUnlike authors, scientists and academics are loath to make specific predictions about mass migrations without adequate research. However, military strategists and intelligence agencies in many countries are already known to be planning for the security posed by a rising tide of humanity on the move.In Nepal, it could mean a steady increase in the movement of people to the uplands from the Tarai, reversing the outmigration of people from the mountains to the plains. In India, people could stream out of the heavily populated Ganga plains for the cooler climes of Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, or Sikkim. Heat could push many Pakistanis from Punjab and Sindh to the Hindu Kush.“Humans have always migrated, for one reason or the other,” says Yogendra B Gurung, Professor at the Central Department of Population Studies in Tribhuvan University. “It used to be for better economic opportunities. Now, we have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate-induced disasters</a> in the mix.”For decades, Nepalis have moved from the mountains and hills to the Tarai. First due to planned resettlement in the 1960s, and later seeking better jobs, healthcare and education resulting in 54% of Nepal’s 30 million population now living in the plains. But if current heating trends continue, the movement could be in the opposite direction.Climate migration is not new, it is already happening. Villages in Kavre, Ramechhap and Mustang districts have seen entire households moving out because of water sources going dry due to prolonged droughts. But heat stress is going to affect many more people, and they will have nowhere to go, but up.A new report by the World Bank Group, Country, Climate and Development Report for Nepal warns: 'Heat stress affects large swathes of the country, with over 4 million Nepalese facing the health impacts of extreme heat.'Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The carbon footprint of tourism</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate damage</a>, Editorial<a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-needs-to-get-its-climate-act-together/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s climate adaptation plans</a> so far mostly take into account melting glaciers, receding snow lines and the mountains. “There is no real mention of the Tarai in our climate discourse, we haven’t even begun to study the slow-onset impacts of the climate crisis,” says Ajaya Dixit of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) Nepal.Dixit spent three months this spring in New Delhi during an unseasonal heat wave, with the maximum temperature most days touching 45°C in April. He writes in a guest editorial for Nepali Times this week: ‘In Nepal, we have not yet recognised increasing heat as a potential problem – both in terms of threats in the Tarai and river valleys, and the environmental implications of possible movement of people up the mountains.’Future climate refugees might have to deal with a whole new set of problems in their new homes: adapting to drastically different climate and socio-economic conditions, and a hostile political environment.“Nepal is already starting to see reverse migration of people from lowlands to highlands unlike in the past, and we will likely see more of it in the future. Even plants and vectors like mosquitoes are moving up,” says climate scientist Manjeet Dhakal. “But it is unlikely to resolve the root cause of the problem. It is much better to devise adaptation strategies starting right now.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b709c7e80680e0c95bejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1170" height="739"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Like in Kim Stanley Robinson’s novel, Gaia Vince in Nomad Century explores the similar solutions like using bioengineering to stabilise and cool the planet, a global governance body to set the planet’s thermostat, building new compact cities at higher latitudes to house climate refugees with an international tax, universal passports.Many of these ideas are politically unfeasible in the present climate, as seen in the rise of populist anti-immigration parties in the North. But the climate refugee crisis will be so drastic that it will need drastic solutions. Vince believes that future migration will benefit both refugees and their destination countries which by then will have declining populations because of falling birth rates. In fact, migration may be necessary for humanity to survive a crisis of its own making.Humans migrated out of Africa, possibly also due to climate reasons, some 80,000 years ago. And they have been on the move ever since. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/underreporting-the-climate-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate crisis</a> now poses the threat of another mass exodus, on a scale never seen before.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/">Nepal must prepare for climate migration</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda DixitThe Ministry for the FutureBy Kim Stanley RobinsonOrbit, 2020576p          $20.49 (hardback)<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b729c7e80680e0c95bfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1651" height="2560"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b769c7e80680e0c95c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1684" height="2560">Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our WorldBy Gaia VinceFlatiron Books, 2022288p$18.99 (hardback)

Sonia Awale

Unthinkable in the current climate

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66b79c7e80680e05999ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1190"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>One week before the United Nation’s 25th<a href="https://unclimatesummit.org/?gclid=CjwKCAiAis3vBRBdEiwAHXB29Hs3t4U4RCRgc-vHC6TCeh5U--cUF8aUmdNigkplmiVAby7wThMzsRoChBQQAvD_BwE" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://unclimatesummit.org/?gclid%3DCjwKCAiAis3vBRBdEiwAHXB29Hs3t4U4RCRgc-vHC6TCeh5U--cUF8aUmdNigkplmiVAby7wThMzsRoChBQQAvD_BwE&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260350000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHWCqLviMRMsw9bSAViIktna7XZrg">Conference of Parties (COP25)</a> began in Madrid the <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2019-concludes-decade-of-exceptional-global-heat-and-high-impact-weather" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2019-concludes-decade-of-exceptional-global-heat-and-high-impact-weather&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260350000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFmSpmFfTt24OskE4fKp46gojGwFg">World Meteorological Organisation </a>warned that by 2100 the average global temperature is likely to increase by 3 to 5o Celsius above the preindustrial average. This is almost three times higher than the goals set by the 2015 Paris Accord.Earlier, the <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.unenvironment.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260350000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFqZokBCtUTv1oaLPg92HjoT18iPw">UN Environment Programme (UNEP)</a> had said that in the coming decade global GHG emissions need to fall by 7.6% annually to meet the goals of Paris Accord. But this goal seems unachievable, and we will likely be seeing increasing impacts on natural systems in the coming ten years up to 2030 and beyond.Read also: <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global heating melts mountains</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFlRDWlvAwmgvfokPs5HZ7eoEceAA">A January 2019 assessment by the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)</a> had warned that if the present emissions rates continue (which from the waffling in Madrid looks certain) two-thirds of Himalayan glaciers will be gone during this century.‘Even if the average global temperature is kept below 1.5̊oC, as envisaged by 2015 Paris Accord, glacier volumes will decline by one-third,’ the report said. ‘Snow-covered areas and snow volumes will decrease over the coming decades due to increased temperatures and snowline elevations will rise.’In 2019, Iceland's Okjokull and Switzerland’s Pizol glaciers disappeared. Will Himalayan glaciers and snow volumes face a similar fate? Referring to the Gangotri Glacier, Journalist <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ganges-Encounters-Saints-Sinners-Indias/dp/1250057353" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.amazon.com/Ganges-Encounters-Saints-Sinners-Indias/dp/1250057353&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGSLZt4pSvJPvrHnoOCiLR_tetaAw">George Black in his book On the Ganges, Encounters With Saints and Sinners Along India’s Mythic River</a> writes: ‘When glaciers decay, they become sad, derelict things. The ice cracks and crumbles and turns dirty pale blue before melting away altogether.’The disruptions in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF_LsNSSyqX_ysmAzscrVc1kl6nSg">Himalayan snow ecosystem are real</a> and will occur along with similar disruptions in the midhill and the plains. Changes in rainfall patterns are affecting conditions that sustain ecosystems, leading to the depletion of springs in the midhills with significant implications on the health and livelihoods of people living in them. Frequent and high-intensity rainfall, landslides, and floods damage communities, decrease diversity of species, and increase disease and pest dynamics.The changes in rainfall and snowmelt will continue to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/global-heating-melts-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1576316260351000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH4vXzPsAg99tDZQpaHtmAVzLXS1g">lower dry season river flows</a> in the coming decade, leading to declines in the availability of fresh water, resulting in lower crop yields, reduced electricity production and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">increased water stress</a>  Longer hot periods, increased energy needed for running air-condition for example will be hallmark of the 2020-2030 decade.The implications of these decade-long changes have not really hit the political class and civic leaders in Nepal and in other South Asian countries which have always shown short political time horizons. Most of them consider <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/">climate change</a> to be something in the distant future, nothing to worry about now, a problem that someone, somewhere (mostly in developed west), will provide technical and financial solutions for.Yes, solutions will be technical and require new funds, but how we deal with the impending changes are fundamentally governed by cultural, economic and political considerations. Greenhouse gas emissions are not decreasing fast enough,and adaptation is unlikely to be automatic, linear or straightforward.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/migration-mitigation/?preview_nonce=066ab9802a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration mitigation</a>, Editorial<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must prepare for climate migration</a>, Sonia AwaleSea level rise is a perfect example of this complexity. A 2019 report by US based Climate Central suggests says that by 2050, 42 million Bangladeshi and 36 million in coastal India are likely to be vulnerable to sea level rise. An earlier estimate was only of 5 million each in the two countries. Displacement due to sea level rise will present major challenges for governance, urban development and alternative livelihoods for those seeking safer locations. This new wave of migration will not begin 30 years from today, but is already happening and will accelerate.A recent OXFAM report says that climate fueled disasters were the number one driver of internal displacement over the last decade, forcing more than 20 million people a year to leave their homes. Given the current political backlash against migrants and refugees seen in many countries, the movement of people across borders will more even more curtailed. Yet people will keep moving, though migration will be much harder and increasingly unsafe. Though landlocked, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal may not remain immune</a> to this upheaval, as the arrival of Burmese Rohingya refugees through Bangladesh and India has shown.Throughout human history, entire civilisations have been affected by droughts and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">floods</a>. It is also a strategy to escape poverty and insecurity stemming from political hazards. Migration is not only the result of such push factors, but many pull factors such as jobs and better livelihoods. Today, about 2-3 million Nepali people live outside the country, mostly as wage workers.Climate change is likely to further accentuate prevailing societal imbalances, inequalities and other societal fault lines. These will seriously stretch institutional capacity to manage any <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/migration-mitigation/?preview_nonce=066ab9802a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new wave of migration</a>  The socially excluded, marginalised, uneducated and those with limited livelihood options will be pushed into greater desperation.In the past year, 15 major reports have come out warning of the threats to humanity and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ecosystems</a> from the climate emergency. The tens of millions of people at the frontlines facing these new threats will be the aged, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/women-in-climate-hot-spots-face-challenges-adapting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">women</a>  children, peasants, fisherfolk and those making a living off already-depleted natural resources. The political challenge is to act now to avoid potential social and political catastrophe in the future. The longer we wait, the bigger will the price humanity will pay.Ajay Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change in Nepali Times deals with the impact of global heating in Nepal and the region.

Make-or-break decade for climate action

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a65199c7e80680e059911jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>HIGH AND DRY: A village in Mustang is one of the increasing number of settlements that have been abandoned because of water shortage caused by climate change. Photo : GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>In the past, Nepalis have migrated to India for seasonal labour and military recruitment. Today they fly overseas for work. Tomorrow they may have to migrate in increasing numbers because of climate-induced disasters.But the reason for migrating remains the same: <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reliance of Nepal’s farmers on rain-fed agriculture</a>, which leaves them vulnerable to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-is-the-monsoon-this-year/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">erratic monsoons</a>. And as extreme weather events become more frequent due to the climate emergency, more and more Nepalis may be forced to move out.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration mitigation,</a> Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37197&amp;preview_nonce=e98b9c3c62&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting, Marty Logan</a>Already, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> is causing more frequent <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">droughts</a>, flash floods and rising temperatures, reducing crop yields across Nepal. Climate change has lowered the water table and dried natural springs, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">snowline has receded across the Himalaya</a>, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">glaciers are retreating dramatically</a>.The shortage of water is already <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forcing entire villages to relocate</a>, and the situation is expected to worsen in the next few decades as the dry season flow from snow-fed rivers declines because little ice remains to melt.Nepalis have been migrating for centuries to escape <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">poverty</a>, indebtedness and monsoon failures. All these push factors have now been magnified by climate-related hazards, and are already resulting in increased mobility.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>“We are witnessing a rapid rise in temperature and a resulting climate shift. But <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">people in rural mountainous</a> and coastal areas have not been able to adapt to these changes, forcing them to move,” explained climate expert Manjeet Dhakal, who is in Madrid for the United Nations climate summit, COP25, citing the example of pastoralists relocating in Mustang district because of prolonged drought.Scientists have had to revise estimates of the rate of global warming because the impact is being felt much earlier than expected, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heat waves</a>, larger forest fires, more intense storms, unseasonal blizzards and extreme rainfall events. The past decade was the hottest ever on record, Europe saw its hottest ever June this year, sub-Saharan Africa experienced unprecedented drought, while Cyclone Fani triggered the evacuation and displacement of 3.5 million people in Bangladesh and India in May.Here in Nepal, over 80,000 people were infected with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dengue this monsoon</a> in an unprecedented outbreak that scientists said was exacerbated by a warming climate. Bara district recorded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/groound-zero-in-pheta/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a rare tornado</a> that killed 80 people, and razed villages. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/">Floods in the Tarai</a> are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-villages-learn-to-cope-with-climate-crisis/">getting worse every year</a>.“There are many reasons for people to migrate, but the additional stress from the risks of increased floods and droughts, or changes in farming or water supply, may just push people’s decision past the tipping point,” said David Molden, director of the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). “For others, there may be no choice but to migrate if a water source is lost, or the damage from floods or droughts is too great.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit Migration usually begins as a temporary response, but many people have had to relocate permanently or have been displaced. Millions of climate refugees are moving across borders. Human mobility of any kind in the face of the changing climate will have an enduring impact on societies and economies.“When some members of a family migrate, the country’s dependence on remittance will increase. When entire families migrate, the country will lose a major portion of its labour force. Eventually, dependence on remittance and a shrinking labour force will inhibit the economy,” said Dhakal.As far back as 1990, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the single greatest impact of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> would be on human migration. Now, experts are saying there may be 200 million climate refugees worldwide by 2050. By then, 42 million Bangladeshis and 36 million people in coastal India will have to relocate because of rising sea levels.A recent Oxfam report named climate change-fuelled disasters as the number one driver of internal displacement over the last decade, having forced more than 20 million people to leave their homes annually.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, Editorial“If the current development pathway and governance persists, human mobility upheaval will have huge humanitarian and social costs. We in Nepal may not remain immune to this disruption even though we are landlocked,” says water expert Ajaya Dixit.Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, the executive committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism established a task force on displacement to develop recommendations to avert, minimise and address displacement due to climate change. Agencies, including the International Organisation for Migration, are building support for the second phase of the task force in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madrid this week</a>.Climate migration is also being discussed in 25 panels and events at COP25. With a rising backlash against migrants and refugees worldwide, it is likely that climate change impacts will cascade, stretching institutional capacity and governance and increasing the cost of adaptation. As displaced people move onto other people’s land, political confrontation and conflict between native populations and migrants can result.Governments represented in Madrid need to devise policies not just to reduce emissions, but to deal with the political, cultural and economic fallout of climate migration.Says Dixit: “The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate crisis</a> poses an existential threat. Let us hope human ingenuity and collective wisdom will prevail to begin much needed transformative action.”

Nepal must prepare for climate migration

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a65169c7e80680e059910jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>SHOULDERING THE BURDEN: The workload for women like Nanimaya Dhungana in Kavre (Above) may have increased because of the climate crisis. Photo: KUMAR ACHARYA</figcaption></figure>Women in Asia and Africa hardest hit <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">by climate change</a> have a tough time adapting to the climate emergency, even with support from family or the state, finds a new study. The results raise questions for global agreements designed to help people adapt to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate emergency</a>, it adds.The findings are based on 25 case studies in three agro-ecological regions on the two continents: 14 in semi-arid locales, 6 in mountains and glacier-fed river basins (including one in Nepal) and 5 in deltas. The main livelihoods in these natural resource-dependent areas include agriculture, livestock rearing and fishing, supplemented by wage labour, petty trade and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/doubts-on-zero-cost-migration-deal-coming-into-force,2157" target="_blank" rel="noopener">income from remittances</a>.Environmental risks include <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">droughts</a>, floods, rainfall variability, land erosion and landslides, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">glacial lake outburst floods</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, heat waves</a> and cyclones, all of which negatively affect livelihoods. The study, A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Women’s Agency and Adaptive Capacity in Climate Change Hotspots in Asia and Africa was published in the journal Nature Climate Change.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Migration mitigation, Editorial</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37206&amp;preview_nonce=9067429ee4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must prepare for climate migration,</a> Sonia AwaleIt found that when households take steps to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-climate-threat-multiplier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">adapt to the impact of climate change</a>, the result is that the strategies ‘place increasing responsibilities and burdens on women, especially those who are young, less educated and belonging to lower classes or marginal castes and ethnicities’. This occurred even in cases where support appeared to be available in the form of families/communities or via the state.Examples include when men migrate to find work because of climate change-induced impacts at home. While the money they earn can boost family incomes, when men are away <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">women must shoulder a larger burden</a>. As a result, most women ‘reported reduced leisure time, with negative consequences on their wellbeing, including the health and nutrition of themselves and their households,’ says the report.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>In other cases, governments stepped in with support but during floods or droughts, for example, men dominated state-provided aid and relief facilities, making women rely on their male relatives to receive support.‘In a sense, women do have voice and agency, yet this is not contributing to strengthening longer-term adaptive capacities,’ concludes the report.But in three examples in the study, one in Nepal, women did adapt to the increased burdens delivered by climate change. In Chharghare of Nuwakot district, support from a well-established cooperative enabled many women — excluding Dailit women — to switch from raising buffalo and cattle to rearing goats, which adapted better to growing rain scarcity.“By enhancing women’s agency, we need to understand that we are helping them to create an enabling environment where a women’s right to make decisions about her own life is recognised, where women are economically empowered and free from all forms of discrimination and violence,” said Anjal Prakash, who worked on the case study for the Integrated Centre for Mountain Development (ICIMOD).Poverty is the main factor in the declining decision-making power of women in some hot spots, says the report, even when women share responsibilities in the family and work outside of the home. In semi-arid Kenya, for example, women of female-headed households sell alcohol to earn money to pay for children’s schooling, but this exposes them to health risks, such as engaging in sexual activities with their clients.Read also: <a href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&amp;cx=011870630917993763279:opm7uqsat-4&amp;q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/Recharging-the-mountains-kavre&amp;sa=U&amp;ved=2ahUKEwjrk7jMyZ7mAhVSzTgGHXMsCPkQFjAAegQIBhAB&amp;usg=AOvVaw0Hk35TvXLe8RkYPj4gjG58">Recharging the mountains</a>, Sonia AwaleA 35-year-old woman told researchers, “Despite our efforts, there is a high level of malnutrition here. We can’t afford meat, we just eat rice and potatoes, but even for this, the quantity is not enough.”The study notes that international agreements, such as the gender action plan of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) require information about what builds the adaptive capacity of women, and men, so that agreements can support sustainable, equitable and effective adaptation.It suggests that effective social protection, like the universal public distribution system for cereals in India, or pensions and social grants in Namibia, could contribute to relieving immediate pressures on survival.‘This however cannot always be done on the “cheap” — investments are needed to enable better and more sustainable management of resources. ‘Women’s self-help groups are often presented as solutions, yet they are confronted by the lack of resources, skills and capacity to help their members effectively meet the challenges they confront,’ the report adds.

Marty Logan

Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a64c19c7e80680e0598f5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1047"/><figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption></figure>In the strict legalese that the United Nations is accustomed to, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Madrid Climate Summit</a> is called the 25th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). We will call it COP25 for short. After riots engulfed Santiago in Chile, the venue was shifted to Madrid — just as well because that reduced the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon footprint</a> of the gathering.COP25 comes at a time when scientists have warned that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">goals of the Paris Agreement of 2015 are outdated</a>, and the targets for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">curbing carbon emissions</a> need to be revised. Erratic weather, the melting of polar ice-caps, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/">glaciers shrinking in the Himalaya</a> and other climate-induced changes that scientists expected to happen in 2030 are already taking place.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37206&amp;preview_nonce=9067429ee4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must prepare for climate migration,</a> Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37197&amp;preview_nonce=e98b9c3c62&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Women in climate hot spots face challenges adapting,</a> Marty LoganThe reason: carbon emissions are going up instead of down. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere crossed 408 parts per million last week — several orders of magnitude higher than before the industrial revolution, when it never rose above 300.Just to put it in perspective, all the changes we see happening around the world due to global warming have been set off by a temperature rise of only 1oC since human society started <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">burning fossil fuels</a> like coal. Yet, in the best-case scenario global average temperature is set to rise by at least 2oC in the next 30 years.In its Emissions Gap Report 2019 last week, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) warned that countries need to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7.6% a year between 2020 and 2030 in order to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cap temperature increase at 1.5oC</a>, as agreed in Paris. But the US has pulled out of the Paris Agreement, and major emitters of carbon dioxide have not reduced their emissions as agreed. To meet the Paris targets, greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut by 40% by 2030 and countries need to become carbon neutral by 2050.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The carbon footprint of tourism</a>COP25’s motto is ‘Time To Act’, and it is hoped the 50 heads of state attending the meeting will do just that. Environmental activists are holding a parallel ‘Social Summit for Climate’ to pressure governments to not backtrack on commitments. Yet, conspicuous by their absence in Madrid are US President Donald Trump, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Together they represent more than half the total emissions of greenhouse gases worldwide today.Scientists have painted an apocalyptic picture of what will happen if the world fails to act. Rising global temperatures will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heat stress</a>, falling <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ipcc-report-and-nepals-food-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">food production</a>, continental-scale forest fires, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">receding icecaps</a> and rising sea levels. All these slow-onset disasters will have an impact on food production and human habitation, forcing tens of millions to relocate. The climate crisis is already leading indirectly to political instability and conflict, which in turn adds to migration pressure.Aside from all the other changes like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mass extinction of species</a> and collapse of natural ecosystems, it is migration that will have the most profound impact on human society. Some of these challenges are supposed to be discussed this week in Madrid, as delegations deliberate on the nexus between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-waste-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate and migration</a>. The UNFCCC’s task force on displacement will present its report, and rich countries will also have to fund the under-pledged $100 billion Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda Dixit To be sure, humans have been migrating throughout history, forced to move due to natural climate cycles or the advance of the Ice Age. However, this is the first time they will be migrating because of human-induced changes to the climate.People migrate due to sudden disasters like cyclones, floods, wildfires or droughts. But they will also <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relocate because of slow-onset changes</a> like sea-level rise and erratic rainfall patterns. The lesson of the past two years is that slow-onset is not so slow anymore.The world has reached a tipping point, where small quantitative changes have created larger non-linear irreversible movement of people. This poses huge implications for politics and security.People are <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/recharging-the-mountains-" target="_blank" rel="noopener">leaving the mountains</a> due to landslides and floods, drylands because of water stress and coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Their destinations are overcrowded urban areas where they are even more vulnerable. A sign of things to come was Cyclone Fani, which forced 3.5 million people in India to be displaced earlier this year.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>, EditorialThe World Bank estimates that by 2050, nearly 150 million people in South and Southeast Asia may become climate refugees. Sea level rise alone is expected to displace 50 million people from Bangladesh and India.Unless Nepal’s subsistence farmers get irrigation and other support to survive erratic monsoons, they will have no choice but to move. As our reports this week show, outmigration of Nepalis is now increasing, partly due to climate change. With the men gone, women are left to cope with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impacts of the climate emergency</a> on their own.Nepal also needs to do much more to reduce petroleum demand — not just to save the planet but also to save its own economy.In the end, it all boils down to vision and governance to recognise the climate crisis and be ready for its effects. Being unprepared will be much more costly in the long run.<h2>10 years ago</h2>As world leaders gather in Madrid this week for the Climate Summit, it is interesting to note that exactly 10 years ago this week <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/479" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #479</a> was discussing the Copenhagen Climate Summit of 2009. Excerpt from an editorial from 4-10 December 2009:‘The people in the mountains of Nepal do not know that the futures of their children and grandchildren are tied up with how the international climate change conference next week in Copenhagen goes.Will the rich countries agree to cut back to 40% of 1990 emissions in the next 10 years (which scientists warn is needed to keep the average rise of global temperatures to within two degrees Celsius) or will they stall at the 13% the Americans say is as far as they can go?<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151116/636a64c49c7e80680e0598f6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="329" height="500">The Copenhagen meet will also reveal whether the rich countries are actually willing to help developing countries make the switch from fossil fuel to renewables, and whether they will help to fund adaptation measures so the world’s poor can cope with rising sea levels and receding snowlines.'

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