The rape and murder of Inisha BK in Surkhet earlier this month has become yet another case of the abuse and violence that women and girls continue to face — and pay for with their lives.&nbsp;
In Kalikot, police arrested a man in his 50s after he was found to have repeatedly sexually assaulted his 13-year-old relative. In Kathmandu's Maitighar, a seven-year-old has been demanding justice for her mother, who was raped and murdered in Khotang eight months ago.&nbsp;
These crimes have once again cast a harsh ­­­­spotlight on how Nepal’s state apparatus has repeatedly failed victims and survivors of sexual violence. This has fostered a sense of impunity that encourages more abuse.
Four teenage boys, one of them reportedly in a romantic relationship with Inisha, have been arrested for her brutal assault and murder. In the days since, Nepalis across the country have come together, as they have before after the same sort of crimes, to demand justice and accountability not just for Inisha but for countless other women and girls who are made to suffer.&nbsp;
Nepal Police records show an average of 2,400 cases of rape over the last five fiscal years, with 2,253 complaints filed in the past year. There are as many as 7 rape cases registered every day, while more are never reported to the police. Yet, even as there are resounding calls for accountability now for Inisha, there is the sense that law enforcement and the judicial system is not to be trusted to ensure safety and justice for women.&nbsp;
The 2018 rape and murder of 18-year-old Nirmala Panta has not been solved due to police mishandling of the investigation. That crime is etched on the national psyche. Thousands of survivors of wartime rape during the insurgency remain unaddressed by the state. Law enforcement shows apathy and loathing towards trans people, particularly sex workers, when they try to register complaints of sexual harassment and assault. Police are routinely reluctant to record complaints of marital rape.&nbsp;
And even if cases of sexual violence are registered, the state allows perpetrators to get away with fumbled investigations, a lack of sufficient evidence or statutes of limitation.&nbsp;
Adult men get away with grooming and assaulting minor survivors because both parties ‘have consented’ to being in a relationship. Survivors and families are often made to sign a मिलापत्र by police so they do not have to investigate and prosecute.&nbsp;
After this month’s election, there is hope that a fresh new elected leadership will govern the country better than their predecessors. There are strong demands that the government hold the rapists of Inisha, Nirmala and many other women and girls accountable for their crimes.
Whenever yet another case of sexual assault makes it to national headlines, there is an outcry to punish the perpetrators when (and if) they are found, and only after they have committed the crime. But what of our own homes, communities, society and culture where patriarchy is entrenched, and misogyny rampant?
Following Inisha’s rape and murder, the usual questions were already there on the social media manosphere: why would she go into the forest with a boy? Why did she have a boyfriend at 16? Online, some began their think-pieces with ‘I don’t mean to blame the victim … but young girls must be careful who they give themselves to.’&nbsp;
Almost every woman will have experienced sexual harassment, misconduct or violence one way or another — in casual conversations at work, walking on the streets, on public transport, interacting with people they know, just going about their daily lives.&nbsp;
And the onus of sexual abuse and violence always lies on those who are subjected to it: on how they dress, how they behave, how they exist. Meanwhile, perpetrators are excused and protected by their celebrity status, their wealth, connection, age, by their families and communities.
Meanwhile, young boys and men across the globe are increasingly radicalised on the internet, driven to violent and sexist behaviour as they are algorithmically led to believe that feminism and the calls for equality tramples on their rights.
Misogyny permeates everyday interactions, every time we dismiss the &nbsp;aggression of young men as ‘boys being boys’, every time men are taught to associate romantic relationships with aggressively pursuant behaviour, every instance that dated and sexist wedding rituals are taken in jest, every time women are silenced into sweeping domestic violence, abuse, and sexual assault under the rug.
Nepal’s laws must ensure that perpetrators of sexual violence are granted no leniency, regardless of age, background, or circumstance. But it must also be made abundantly clear to young boys and men at home, schools, and in the community that bad behaviour, however small, has consequences.
Shristi Karki

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Editorial

No nation for women

&nbsp;With a near two-thirds majority, the RSP has a chance that no other party in Nepal has ever had--to reboot how Nepal is run. Winning an election with such an overwhelming majority was one thing, but running an effficient government will be a whole new ball game. From the start, it will not be easy because the country is running straight into a major economic crisis due to the West Asia war.&nbsp; With 125 first-past-the-post direct wins and 57 proportional representation seats — over 47% of the total 10.7 million valid votes — the RSP has 182 seats in Parliament. The Nepali Congress (NC) is a distant second with 38 seats, while the UML is trailing with 25. Three more made it to the national party list: Nepali Communist Party (17), the royalist RPP (5) and the new entry Shram Sanskriti Party (7) led by former Dharan mayor Harka Sampang. Shram Sanskriti’s performance is also a clear indicator that identity politics is still a potent force. The RSP with its majority can now form a stable government for the next five years, but there are issues that may surface with the choice of Cabinet members and other appointments. PM candidate Balendra Shah and party chair Rabi Lamichhane both have big egos and are ambitious, and Nepal cannot afford rumours of a split be a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is precedent. The last two-thirds government under the Communist Party of Nepal formed after the alliance of UML and Maoist Centre in 2022 collapsed following a power struggle between two cop comrades K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. History in Nepal has a habit of repeating itself. No elected government in Nepal has ever completed a full five-year term, so the RSP has a chance to rewrite history. Besides egos and the West Asia crisis, the party has other challenges: legacy parties rule local governments and the National Assembly. The RSP’s rejection of provincial elections and federalism in 2022 did not seem to have affected its votes in the Madhes, but local governments at the periphery will be trying their level best to make it difficult for the centre. The RSP’s strategy should be not to alienate the old parties, but try to win them over and collaborate to build bases outside of major urban centres.&nbsp; Some think Balendra Shah’s aloof and uncommunicative nature could hide an authoritarian streak. And Rabi Lamichhane has been scathing about media exposes of his alleged wrongdoings. Despite this, the RSP's strategy should be to avoid alienating civil society any more than necessary.&nbsp; The media’s role in a democracy is to play the adversarial check-and-balance role, especially when one party is so dominant. However, the press must give up its corrosive, cynical coverage that almost hopes the RSP will fail from day one -- especially since social media offers no help on that score. There are so many things wrong with Nepal that even at the best of times, and even with a supermajority government, it would be impossible to solve them all overnight. But voters are an impatient lot, and they expect a lot pronto.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260313080320_388d87c728fce65393a7042b4e649fe73af559b3459c45d8aff7f320acbd62dd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260313080320_388d87c728fce65393a7042b4e649fe73af559b3459c45d8aff7f320acbd62dd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1033" loading="lazy" alt="Page 1 map"> </figure>  Effective governance takes time, and the RSP must be given the chance even if it fails to make course-corrections. Shah and Lamichhane, on the other hand, must show restraint and prove their critics wrong. Instead of posting inflammatory content on their social media feeds and deploying cyber militias to troll critics into silence, they could try developing a thicker skin. The RSP could work on a clear strategy and plan of action to get this country back on its feet. The party's rise was built on emotion, not ideology. But every party needs ideals, just saying it is against corruption is not enough. Its stance on federalism, secularism, inclusion, need to be clarified. The RSP's lofty promise to bring young Nepalis home will be easier said than done. What will they return to? How can we make this worthwhile? And how do we provide jobs for the other 500,000 Nepali youth who enter the job market every year?&nbsp; Nepal will need liberal policies regarding domestic investment and FDI to reform manufacturing, industry, tourism and infrastructure to ensure jobs at home, while also working toward achieving the 7% annual growth rate projected by the RSP.&nbsp; Rabi Lamichhane has introduced the term 'development diplomacy’ to steer the country away from traditional geopolitics toward economic partnerships with India, China, and other international partners. But the environmental cost of mega projects must also be taken into account in the rush to development.&nbsp; The RSP’s anti-corruption drive, implementing a high-level commission to investigate assets acquired since 1990, must also include judicial reform. Meanwhile, quality health services and education must be affordable and accessible.&nbsp; Cleaning up the bureaucracy will be critical. Electoral reform including election spending and out-of-country voting must be a priority from the get go. It is a long to-do list. But for the very first time, the Nepali people are genuinely excited about their new leaders and the promised transformation. Not another Switzerland or Singapore, people just want better development, more efficient service delivery, meaningful jobs at home and an accountable government.&nbsp; That should not be too much to ask. Sonia Awale

As clear as a bell

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

The magic 138

Besides being an election year in Nepal, 2026 is also the year of anniversaries. It is exactly 30 years since the Maoists launched their armed struggle on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/13-february">13 February 1996</a>, and it was on 27 April 2006 that the ceasefire came into effect after a month of massive pro-democracy protests.
Alas, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/not-ever-again">three decades on</a>, the decade-long conflict that claimed 17,000 lives has been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/ghosts-of-war">air brushed from our history</a>. For the survivors, and the families of those disappeared and killed, memories of loss and suffering are fading. The party that fought the war in Mao’s name has dropped it.
It is important on this day to remember not to forget that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3203">violent decade</a> -- so that it does not happen again, and so the youth movement that has led to this election will also not be in vain.
The 8 September 2025 rally, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre">the massacre that followed</a>, and the nationwide mayhem and carnage the next day were largely a result of public anger boiling over. Nepalis had been let down repeatedly by rulers promising revolution in the name of the ‘people’: from the 1990 People’s Movement I, to the Maoist ‘People’s War’, and the 2006 People’s Movement II.
There are some positive residual effects of the insurgency. One-third of the Maoist militia was <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nation-sibling-war-juna-rai,731">composed of women</a>, this empowered not just the female guerrillas themselves, but indirectly made a whole generation of young women aware of their rights.&nbsp;
The peace process itself resulted in the Maoists entering the democratic mainstream, and the induction of many of the guerrillas into the national army – a rare occurrence after a conflict.
The ceasefire was followed by an interim government, and the first elected <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-letter-and-spirit">Constituent Assembly</a> abolished the monarchy in 2008. Deadlock over the model of federalism meant a second election had to be held in 2013, and the new Constitution <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/new-constitution-should-adopt-inclusive-democracy-with-federalism-republicanism-secularism,538">finally promulgated in 2015</a>.&nbsp;
That statute was supposed to devolve political decision-making away from Kathmandu to autonomous provinces, improve inclusive representation of women and hitherto excluded castes and ethnicities at all three levels of government, ensure accountability and good governance to generate jobs and lift living standards.
There were seven governments in ten years after 2015, and tottering coalitions one after another failed to fulfil any of those provisions in the Constitution. There were subliminal gains in representation of women thanks to affirmative action, but as this election shows, women candidates are still used as proxies by patriarchal parties.&nbsp;
Since the two warring sides of the Maoist war both became the state, sharing power in dozens of coalition cabinets since 2006, they colluded to bury the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-unpunished-war-crimes">transitional justice process</a>.
The former supreme commander of the Maoists Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) has become prime minister three times in the last 20 years. He is contesting this election from Rukum East, where he marked the 30th anniversary of the start of armed struggle on Friday.
The word ‘Maoist’ has been erased from the Nepali Communist Party which Dahal formed with more than a dozen other smaller leftist outfits. His main rival, Janardan Sharma, quit the Maoists and is standing for elections in Rukum West.
Both former comrades are competing for the hearts and minds of people of this former base area from where the Maoists went on warpath on 13 February 1996 by attacking a police station in Athbiskot, and simultaneously on targets in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7812">Holeri of Rolpa</a>, Sindhuli and Gorkha.
The former ideologue of the Maoist party, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/20-years-wasted-in-war,2850">Baburam Bhattarai</a>, was the architect of the revolution while Dahal was the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6369#.Y-XIii8w1KM">executor</a>. Bhattarai submitted a list of 40 demands to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement">Sher Bahadur Deuba</a> (during his first tenure as prime minister in 1995) but did not wait for a reply before launching the armed struggle.
The Maoists felt that the constitutional monarchy after 1990 was too feudal, and a patronage-driven parliamentary system too slow to bring about change. Besides, the democratic parties were accused of using state security to prevent Maoist candidates from winning elections.
The Maoists followed Mao’s Red Book to the letter, attacking police stations, looting weapons and targeting local elected governments, eliminating ‘class enemies' with summary executions.&nbsp;
They destroyed telecommunication towers, highways, bridges and airfields in remote areas. Threats forced health posts, schools, post offices to be withdrawn from areas where people needed them the most. The country’s development was pushed back decades.
Nepal in the early 1990s was ripe for revolution. There was inequality, social injustice, exclusion, and the political parties in Kathmandu were too busy squabbling to do their job. The Maoists wanted an end to the monarchy, but in 2001 the monarchy imploded with the royal massacre.
ABSOLUTE POWER
King Gyanendra succeeded his <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8338">murdered brother</a> to the throne, and took the country back to absolute rule with a military-backed coup in 2005. Within a year, street protests forced him to step aside. And by 2008, it was too late to save the monarchy.
We can look back as far as we want to the roots of the Maoist conflict. It can be blamed on elected leaders post-1990 who abandoned the people once in power, the 30 years of partyless Panchayat system that stifled dissent and let social pressures build up, or even 100 years of Rana rule.&nbsp;
It was the prolonged indifference on the part of successive rulers in Kathmandu that fed public discontent. These accumulated grievances were also the reason for the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-gen-z-protest-turns-deadly">September 2025 events</a>.&nbsp;
During China’s Cultural Revolution, Mao Zedong said: ‘The old has to be uprooted to be replaced with the new’, and that could almost be the anthem of the GenZ movement and this election.
The objective conditions that drove the Maoist insurgency 30 years ago are still evident today. And much will depend on the government(s) that will be formed after March.&nbsp;

Kunda Dixit

Remembering not to forget

Only a handful of people who witnessed the 1934 megaquake as children are still alive. And the memories of 2015 are fading fast.&nbsp;
We were shaken, but have not stirred into action. We have not even started preparing to be prepared for the inevitable, for it is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’.&nbsp;
Thursday 15 January was National Earthquake Safety Day commemorating the 1934 disaster that killed 10,000 people in Kathmandu Valley at a time when its population was barely 100,000.
Nepal is in an active seismic zone, and a really big one is overdue in the seismic gap in western Nepal where there has not been a megaquake for 500 years. The 7.8M quake in 2015 did not completely release the tectonic stress below Central Nepal.
An 8M+ earthquake epicentred in western Nepal will be even more violent than the 2015 one in Kathmandu and will be powerful enough to cause destruction across northern India as well.&nbsp;
We Nepalis are resilient, but we are also complacent and fatalistic. How else does one explain the unsafe and unplanned building construction in Kathmandu, Pokhara and other towns despite frequent reminders of what quakes can do?&nbsp;
Most designs are ad hoc and follow no engineering logic. Reinforced Cement Concrete (RCC) is now widespread across the country since such structures mostly withstood the 2015 event. But structural engineers say most concrete buildings are substandard, and can be death traps. Also, the country lacks equipment and training for search and rescue in cement houses.&nbsp;
FIRE HAZARD
If an earthquake struck Kathmandu on a windy winter evening, there is the added risk of fires from gas cylinders in collapsed buildings spreading across the densely packed city core. Fire trucks will not be able to reach those areas because the streets will be blocked.
Seismic risk is now amplified by climate breakdown. Nepal now needs to factor in the co-hazard of massive avalanches and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) triggered by future earthquakes. There are 41 potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the region, and 27 of them are in Tibet feeding rivers that flow into Nepal. A megaquake there could cause multiple simultaneous GLOFs.&nbsp;
If the 2015 earthquake had not happened on a Saturday, tens of thousands of children could have been killed in the 7,000 schools that were flattened. More than 2,500 government buildings came down, and would have killed and trapped many if it had not been a weekend.
Schools and health facilities retrofitted before the disaster were unscathed, and served as shelters for survivors. Chhatrapati Free Clinic (CFC) was reinforced three years before the earthquake for Rs5.2 million, and with support from National Society of Earthquake Technology (NSET), 800 community members were trained in search and rescue.
Bhuwaneswori Secondary School in Bhaktapur and Bal Bikas Secondary School in Kathmandu both survived 2015 because they had been retrofitted. Singha Darbar, the Supreme Court and the Department of Roads buildings were also made seismic resistant after 2015 quake, but the arson attacks on 9 September gutted them.
While many private residential homes built after 2015 continue to flout building codes, municipalities are now stricter. New schools and colleges, hospitals and high rises now have to meet stringent requirements for seismic resistance.
Nepal is a hotspot for many types of disasters — earthquakes, floods, droughts, glacial outbursts, wildfires. These are not ‘natural’ disasters, they are human induced. Earthquakes do not kill people, poorly-built buildings do. Climate breakdown is anthropogenic.&nbsp;
Waiting for a disaster to strike means we have waited too long. Search and rescue readiness are well and good, but much more important is preparedness — seismic resistance structures especially of public buildings, strict zoning to establish open spaces, pre-positioning supplies and simulated drills.
We do not know how much time we have before the next one. But it is not too late to start preparing. &nbsp;
Sonia Awale

Shaken, but not stirred

Four months ago, videos of Nepal’s rich, famous, and well-connected spread like wildfire on digital platforms. They were flaunting their lavish lifestyles while many Nepalis could not make enough to get by.&nbsp; This display of nepotistic privilege resonated in particular among the millions of Nepalis who are toiling overseas, or will soon have to migrate to provide for their families. What started out as a protest against #NepoKids and corruption snowballed into violence that brought down the government. The youth envisioned a future where they would not be compelled to leave a country where rulers offer nothing to them.&nbsp; Ironically, the arson and vandalism of international hotel brands, corporate houses and businessmen has dampened the investment climate which is driving more Nepalis abroad. The Labour Ministry has announced plans to make it easier for those affected by the protests to obtain overseas working permits. Even those who wanted to stay in Nepal might now find it easier and more prudent to leave. Over 200,000 Nepalis have obtained labour permits in the four months since the September unrest. Since 2011, 7.6 million Nepalis have officially gone to work overseas, according to the 2024 Nepal Labour Migration Report released by the Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security last month. Of them, 2.8 million have renewed their permits. The report highlights labour migration trends, governance, policies, and data for the fiscal years 2022/23 and 2023/24, and although a bit outdated, the figures give an idea of the scale and spread of Nepal’s migrant workers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260108110136_4322a0fcff688dc506bef0e38fec7ae40dc9a2e73ed3e72ee671879c8d756868.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260108110136_4322a0fcff688dc506bef0e38fec7ae40dc9a2e73ed3e72ee671879c8d756868" data-rendition-name="original" width="1118" height="614" loading="lazy" alt="migration report"> </figure>  Some highlights: 954, 319 new labour approvals were issued in 2022/23 and 2023/24, 113,056 of which were obtained by women. Half of the total migrant workforce were between the ages of 25-34.&nbsp; Kosi and Madhes Provinces account for the highest share of labour approvals, while Karnali and Sudurpaschim have the lowest. Most of the migrant workers going to India were from those two far-western provinces. The report categorises migration by year, district, province, age, and sex. But it would have done well to disaggregate socio-economic status, caste and ethnicity, and geographical data.&nbsp; The report also highlights strides made towards ensuring better and fairer migration. Since 2023, labour permits are valid for the duration of the contract signed between workers and employers, as opposed to a fixed term of two years previously. Steps have been taken to ensure 'employers pay' with some destinations so that workers do not have to pay exorbitant recruitment fees. Nepal’s diplomatic missions have been mobilised to issue labour permits and better protection to undocumented workers. There have been efforts to provide better legal protection and compensation rights to overseas workers. Bilateral labour agreements have been signed with countries that offer relatively higher wages, and agreements have been proposed with 13 countries to extend opportunities to migrants in more eastern European countries, SAARC countries like the Maldives and higher-income nations like Austria and Luxembourg.&nbsp; In 2022, the Social Security Fund was extended to include Nepali migrant workers abroad. And while the report also includes Nepal's existing G2G agreements, the effectiveness of those deals also need to be discussed. Nepal' G2G partnership with the UK to send Nepali nurses to work there at zero cost, was expected to recruit 100 nurses, but only 41 nurses have obtained labour permits.&nbsp; Meanwhile, Nepal continues to maintain a G2G partnership with Israel, which is committing a genocide in Gaza, and where the security of Nepalis is at risk. Last year, 2,200 Nepalis went to work in Israel as caregivers — 60% of whom are women. &nbsp; Destination countries have also introduced new migration policies unfriendly to nations like Nepal. Late last year, Malaysia’s announcement of new criteria for selecting private recruiting agencies for migrant workers from countries including Nepal. And the nationwide jailbreak in September has not helped Nepal's case either. The UAE stopped issuing visas to Nepali workers for almost two months before allowing it recently, pending attested police reports. Even so, Nepal recorded remittance inflows of $4.88 billion in the first four months of this fiscal year. Nearly 28% of Nepal GDP equivalent comes from remittances, one of the highest proportion in the world that shows low level of domestic economic activity. Nepal’s leadership will have to reconcile with the fact that depending on remittance to hold up the economy is foolish. Even as Nepal tries to sign labour agreements, higher income nations are becoming less and less tolerant of migrants — even as they face labour shortages and invade developing nations at will.&nbsp; At the beginning of the report, Krishna Hari Pushkar, Secretary of the Labour Ministry, writes, ‘Our shared goal should be to ensure that migration is always a choice, not a necessity.’ But for Nepal and Nepalis, migration will be a compulsion for the foreseeable future.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260108110144_843ed024465b5cedc28b86331d7509973b2a6dd646349fd5d542074422e837e4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260108110144_843ed024465b5cedc28b86331d7509973b2a6dd646349fd5d542074422e837e4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="migration report"> </figure>

Still a compulsion, not a choice

2026 marks the 20th anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Accord that ended the Maoist conflict, and 30 years since the rebels launched their armed struggle.
Yet, two decades after it ended, there is almost no collective national memorialisation of a conflict that ended up killing 17,000 Nepalis. More than 1,330 people are still listed as missing. The perpetrators of heinous war crimes walk free in broad daylight — some have even served as ministers in government.
The transitional justice process, which was a part of the 2006 peace accord, is in limbo. History text books do not mention the war, an entire generation has grown up with no recollection or knowledge of the violence.
The goals for which so many lives were lost are now covered in the dust of history. It is a long list of promises not kept, pledges not honoured, sacrifices forgotten. The 2015 federal republican Constitution was the war’s end-point. The monarchy was abolished, political devolution from Kathmandu to the seven provinces, and an inclusive, just society was promised.
But then it was Animal Farm all over again. Napoleon, Snowball and Squealer started resembling Farmer Jones until no one could tell them apart. Today, some ex-guerrillas still believe in the revolution, many have migrated to the Gulf or Malaysia, child soldiers now have children of their own, survivors and families of the victims struggle with their loss, but memories are fading. International support for human rights organisations to pursue justice is drying up.
Yet, many of the objective conditions for revolution are still present in Nepali society. Politics and party structures are more centralised than ever. Federalism did not replace feudalism. The Constitution stipulated quotas for women and marginalised groups, but parties found ways around them to favour relatives and cronies. Socio-economic inequities are wider than 30 years ago. Corruption became a given.
None of the promised revolutions since 1950 attained their ultimate aims, as Sudiksha Tuladhar’s analysis in this edition (page 9) concludes. The Shahs were not that much better than the Ranas, and acceded to popular demands for change only to dismantle democracy. Young Nepalis took to the streets in 1980, 1990 and 2006 in pro-democracy movements, but rulers regressed and perpetuated the status quo.
RIPE FOR REVOLUTION
From 1996-2006 the Nepali people were held hostage by a war fought in their name. The Maoists used the borrowed and ill-fitting ideology of ‘The People’s War’ waged by ‘The People’s Liberation Army’. The labels were tragically appropriate because it was the people who died and suffered.
Nepal had not seen armed conflict in its territory since the 1814-1816 Anglo-Nepal War. Since then, Nepalis have been fighting in other people's wars. But by the 1990s, Nepal was ripe for revolution because of the feudal ruling structure, the apathy and neglect of newly-elected parties that left millions of youth without jobs and opportunities. Public exasperation was building up.
Nepal went from absolute to constitutional monarchy, parliamentary democracy and even endured the royal-military coup of 2005. But it did not make the rulers more accountable, they were mostly preoccupied with personal or partisan greed and ambition.&nbsp;
The same pattern was repeated following the 2017 election, after which Nepal had five coalition governments in six years. Serial prime ministers played promiscuous politics and recycled themselves over and over again.&nbsp;
Again, all it needed was a spark. That came on 8 September 2025. The slogans and demands, the outrage and impatience of the GenZ protesters were nearly identical to the young students who marched to the palace gates in 1980, 1990 and 2006. Some of those students went on to join the parties they were affiliated with, and are now themselves in their 50s and 60s.
They were all angry and young once. They may no longer be young, but some of them are still angry. Ever since 1990, the political parties which could not get their act together to spur investment and create jobs decided to encourage outmigration of youth. Thus, the rulers exported outrage, while they themselves played musical chairs, oblivious to the fate of the country.
After every half-revolution the new dispensation has emulated the despots they replaced, or thrown the baby out with the bathwater. The danger with the run-up to the March election and beyond is that we will repeat that mistake. Not everything old is bad, not everything new is good.
As the old and the new battle it out, let us learn from the Maoist conflict so that in 2026, the new will not start resembling the old. &nbsp;
Kunda Dixit

Not ever again

For the first time in decades, Nepal’s political structure is on the cusp of a major transition as the monopoly of the legacy parties is being tested by emerging political forces.
Whatever the outcome of the 5 March elections, the age of the Oli-Deuba-Dahal triumvirate will have to struggle to stay relevant in the post-GenZ phase.&nbsp;
As Nepal’s milestone year 2025 came to a close, the three leaders are mounting a rearguard action to retain supremacy within their own parties, and in the wider polity for supremacy. But they do not realise that it is a lost cause — history has moved on.
GenZ youth were not behind the mayhem and arson of 9 September that brought down the UML-NC coalition, but the regime change that followed it bears their name. The new and alternative parties aim to carry their brand forward.
Another troika is emerging: that of RSP chair Rabi Lamichhane, Kulman Ghising of the Ujyalo Nepal Party and Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah. Talks among the three for some kind of electoral togetherness have sent tremors across the established parties.
Freshly released from prison on bail last week, Lamichhane was welcomed back to his party as the chair with open arms even though his reputation took a hit after he made a jailbreak during the September protest.&nbsp;
“People really want change, and any change will do,” notes public policy expert Ashutosh Tiwari. “It’s not that Kulman, Balen, and Rabi will present a superior alternative, it’s just that they will present an alternative, which, at this time, is more than enough—it is much, much better than having forever having Deuba, Oli and Prachanda in governance forever.”&nbsp;
Still, news of a potential partnership between the three must have come as a welcome new year message for Prime Minister Sushila Karki who has been under pressure from both GenZ factions and the UML-NC to put off elections for differing reasons.
Karki does not want anything to dim chances of polls, so it is looking unlikely that the Judicial Inquiry Commission formed to investigate the 8 September massacre and the destruction the next day will be naming names anytime soon.
Former PM K P Oli has shown no contrition for the state violence, and defied summons from the commission saying he would rather be shot than sit for cross-questioning.
The chances of the UML-NC strategy of reinstating the House and forming an all-party government is now looking slimmer, which is why they are now working on finalising the ticket list of candidates.
Some GenZ figures like Sudan Gurung also want the elections postponed (even if it means House reinstatement) perhaps because they need time to pull together their own party. But Gurung also seems inclined to support a partnership between Lamichhane, Shah, and Ghising.
Others like the GenZ Front and the GenZ Movement Alliance are for elections, while some youth have joined new alternative parties or are shopping for parties to join.
There is also wariness among some youth about the possible backing of the RSP for Balen Shah as a PM candidate. The RSP may feel it can piggyback on the mayor’s popularity and tempt him with a leadership role in case Lamichhane is barred from contesting.
Youth reservations are not unfounded. Any partnership between leaders like Lamichhane and Shah must not (just) be based on political opportunism, but a shared platform of good governance and service delivery.&nbsp;
They must put their egos aside and temper their populist, divisive rhetoric — exactly the kind of political culture that they have been trying to change.&nbsp;
The elephants in the room are Nepal’s two neighbours and the United States. The Chinese and American ambassadors have been recalled, and the Indian ambassador has medical issues. The Trump-Modi falling out could already be having an impact, as seen in the violence in Bangladesh, with Washington no longer regarding New Delhi as a regional hegemony.
Beijing appears especially wary of the interim government and the direction it is going. Aside from its suspicions of pro-Tibet antecedents of some GenZ figures, it has also taken umbrage at Chinese entities being dragged into the Pokhara airport payoff scandal.&nbsp;
New Delhi, meanwhile, has been cosying up to the Sushila Karki administration, throwing its weight behind the March polls. In 2026, a lot will depend on the next pro-Trump US ambassador in Kathmandu.
The September movement will have meant nothing if we elect the same people who have led Nepal to democratic decline over the last three decades. However, Nepali voters in March will not just be swayed by changing the structure of politics, but also its culture.&nbsp;
‘Nepal does not need to search for perfect leaders, it needs institutions capable of handling imperfect ones,’ wrote Alok K Bohara, at the University of New Mexico, in a recent blog post arguing that Nepal needs an ‘absorbent democracy’ with institutions designed to withstand governance failure without collapsing.&nbsp;
Bohara continued: ‘The task is to rally around a civic campaign to design institutional architecture that can absorb failure, constrain abuse, and correct deviation. Let the system take care of behavior, rather than hoping that behavior will take care of the system.’
&nbsp;Shristi Karki

70 days, and counting

Prime Minister Sushila Karki is under pressure from GenZ activists and families of the victims to go after officials in the previous government responsible for the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre"> murders of 19 youth at Parliament on 8 September</a>. But prosecuting the perpetrators and putting them behind bars risks street protests from elements in the previous government.
Former Prime Minister K P Oli is not making it easy for his successor. He is smarting from his downfall and itching for revenge. He is flexing his muscles with rallies, and has unleashed the attack dogs. UML’s newly-formed ‘Youth Volunteer Force’ is led by former Maoist Pushparaj Shrestha, who is accused of multiple murders and kidnappings, and former Bhaktapur MP Mahesh Basnet has been making incendiary remarks on social media on behalf of his boss.
Oli is obviously using the threat of street protests as a deterrent: don’t come after me, or else. Prime Minister Karki cannot risk escalation, otherwise <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/march-to-5-march">elections </a>may have to be postponed, or worse, cancelled.&nbsp;
The UML’s partner in the deposed government, the Nepali Congress (NC), is also suffering post-traumatic stress from the shock of the GenZ uprising. Its leader Sher Bahadur Deuba had stepped down as party chief, but has had second thoughts, and seems to want to prove his astrologer right that he can be prime minister seven times. (He has clocked five so far.) Meanwhile, his NC party is imploding with its no-longer-young-turks demanding a party overhaul before elections.
The Maoists are no longer Maoists. Former guerrilla commander and three-time prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal has joined up with seven smaller leftist parties to form the Nepali Communist Party by teaming up with two other superannuated former prime ministers, Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal. Maoist ideologue Baburam Bhattarai has also shed his Maoist tag and leads a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/party-time">new party</a> (PSP) that vows to ‘uphold the demands of the GenZ’.
The long and short of all this is that Nepal’s legacy parties have not seen the writing on the wall, they have no idea how much public outrage there is against them even after the carnage and conflagration ten weeks ago. And after all this, they are behaving exactly like they did before, sidelining internal rivals within their party, treating politics as powerplay and not about accountability and better governance to lift living standards.
Even a little bit of enlightened self-interest would have allowed them to see how sticking to their guns and not handing over the party to a younger cohort would mean certain ignominious defeat in March. But being gerontocratic authoritarians, they still believe their vote banks are intact, and are betting on the GenZ fervour fading by March.
Twenty years ago in this same space, we wrote: ‘Our politicians are not satisfied with being top dog, they want to be only dog.’ Nothing has changed, history is on rewind in slow motion. To take the canine analogy further: maybe you cannot teach an old dog new tricks.
The best indication of this is the shameful<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/election-countdown-4-more-months"> lack of remorse from the former prime minister </a>down the chain of command for what happened starting at noon on 8 September. Even if he did not give the order to shoot, being the head of government he should have taken responsibility for the death of 19 young Nepalis outside Parliament. Resigning that afternoon may have saved the nation from the scale of death and destruction the following day.
The Judicial Commission of Inquiry headed by former justice Gauri Bahadur Karki has another month to submit his findings. K P Oli has said he is not going to any deposition, while his Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak has indicated he will if asked.&nbsp;
Much of the evidence for the killings, arson and looting are in the public domain. There are videos and photographs of the Special Task Force commandos who knelt, took careful aim, and fired at the protesters outside Parliament. Many of the arsonists and looters on 9 September posted selfies and videos on Tiktok and Facebook where they can be easily identified as Maoist, RPP and RSP supporters.
What has angered the GenZ is that while the Home Ministry has been arresting some of those who set fire to Singha Darbar and Parliament, it has not deemed it necessary to track down the shooters. Home Minister Om Aryal says he is waiting for the Judicial Commission report to act.
Last week’s Human Rights Watch (HRW) report, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2025/11/19/nepal-unlawful-use-of-force-during-gen-z-protest" target="_blank">Nepal: Unlawful Use of Force During ‘Gen Z’ Protest</a>, has a detailed timeline of what happened on the two days, corroborated with interviews with eye-witnesses. It found that the STF started shooting within five minutes of the curfew being announced, and most protesters did not hear any warnings. Some 34 protesters were detained inside Parliament, beaten and mentally tortured.
The wounded and dead all had high-velocity gunshot wounds on their heads, chests and abdomen. The arson and looting the following day appears to have been instigated by a mass SMS sent from a fake Myagdi account, after which Discord posts directed protesters to attack specific locations.
Many more questions need to be answered by the Judicial Commission: why did the Army not act sooner, who gave the actual orders to use lethal force with assault rifles, who attacked schools, hotels and businesses, who was behind the inter-party and intra-party attacks on the afternoon of 9 September?&nbsp;
Prime Minister Sushila Karki has to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/proper-polls-better-than-no-polls">tread a careful middle path</a> through this minefield till election day.
Kunda Dixit

Election vs escalation

If the violent clashes outside Simara airport on Wednesday is anything to go by, it means Prime Minister Sushila Karki will find it even more difficult to convince recalcitrant political parties like the UML to go for elections.
Being the two partners in the coalition government which was toppled in the GenZ protests two months ago, the UML and NC are still licking their wounds and do not see much prospect of garnering votes. The UML is also flexing its muscles, with its own show of youth force in order to intimidate the interim government and the Investigation Commission and not implicate its leader K P Oli in the 8 September massacre.
In Simara, protesters calling themselves GenZ were trying to prevent UML leaders from flying in for a political event and clashed with the party’s cadre at the airport to welcome them. All flights to the airport from Kathmandu were cancelled on Wednesday.
The Simara fracas comes at a time when the government is alert about the sensitive security situation. The pro-monarchy businessman Durga Prasai was arrested at midnight on Monday over his inflammatory remarks leading up to nationwide protests planned for 23 November. The UML has also planned demos on Saturday to call for restoration of Parliament.
All this sure to feed prevailing public doubt about the 5 March polls. Every act or suggestion of violence feeds into the anxiety. Even as GenZ protesters were massing at the gates of Simara airport on Wednesday, UML and NC delegates were meeting Prime Minister Karki in Kathmandu saying they would take part in polls only if safety and security can be guaranteed.
Those remarks are a bit rich. Neither their parties nor their leaders who were prime minister and home minister have expressed any remorse or taken responsibility for the massacre on 8 September. They should be thankful Nepal’s courts have not handed down a verdict like Bangladesh’s tribunal against deposed and exiled Sheikh Hasina.
Instead, the UML and NC are inviting further instability by undermining the interim government, and taking to the streets to demand Parliament be restored. This week’s Simara violence has bolstered their argument against the elections. 
But failure to hold elections is not an option for the interim government. Prime Minister Karki is fully committed, and said in an interview in Nagarik newspaper on Thursday: ‘The Nepali people are overwhelmingly for elections, so the parties will ultimately not say no to holding them. There is no question that the election won’t be held on time. I am committed to that goal and we have come a long way in preparing for it.’ 
But political parties must also be free to organise peaceful election rallies without intimidation, as should every Nepali citizen be free to attend them. The youth need to accept that despite all their past failings political parties are not going anywhere, and they should instead push for them to reform and strengthen internal democracy. 
What does not help are incendiary social media posts by populist persona in the GenZ calling for the resignation of Home Minister Om Aryal. Prime Minister Karki was installed by the GenZ but herself has expressed frustration about their contradictory demands. 
It is not just the election that needs to be free, fair and peaceful. Candidates, whether they are from old or new parties, or those contesting as independents must be allowed to campaign freely and engage with voters without inciting revenge and violence.
Nepalis overwhelmingly want to usher in fresh new actors, you do not need an election to feel that pulse. This is a chance for the serial prime ministers in the established parties to pass the baton to a new generation because voters are poised to convey that message through the ballot in March.
In the event that preparations are not complete or conditions are not right for polls in March, it can be postponed by up to two months if necessary. Proper polls are better than no polls.
Families of those killed and injured on 8 September as well as those who participated in the protests are right to demand that the ousted prime minister and home minister be held accountable to the full extent of the law for state brutality. 
These disgraced leaders have chosen contempt over contrition towards protesters and critics since September. They would do well to see the jubilation in Dhaka at the news of the sentencing of Sheikh Hasina for crimes against humanity. 
Shristi Karki

Proper polls better than no polls

The RSP and its prime minister are being sworn in this week after gaining an unprecedented election victory. This is a welcome change for many Nepalis who see it as a remedy to decades of coalition instability.&nbsp; Yet Nepal’s political history suggests otherwise. No majority government has ever completed its full term. This reveals a deeper structural problem: weakly institutionalised parties dominated by personalities rather than ideas. 1951: Dissatisfaction with the oppressive Rana regime among the educated elite led to the creation of political parties like the Nepali Congress (NC), Praja Parishad (later merged into the Nepali Congress), Gorkha Parishad, and the Nepal Communist Party.&nbsp; They emerged secretly, mainly in India during the height of that country’s independence. They organised a successful armed uprising against the Rana rule.&nbsp; 1959: The NC won a two-thirds supermajority in the first general election. Within a year, King Mahendra staged a coup and established the partyless absolute monarchy called the Panchayat system.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="675" height="849" loading="lazy" alt="Mahendra and BP"> </figure>  1991: After the People’s Movement, the ban on parties was lifted and Nepal became a constitutional monarchy. Elections were held under a new Constitution and the NC won 110 out of 205 seats, joining the United Leftist Front which functioned as a loose coalition.&nbsp; Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s first term ended with his resignation due to infighting, particularly with Ganesh Man Singh, who accused him of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">“emerging as a dictator, downgrading democratic norms and values, and even selling out national interests.”</a> Parliament was dissolved and the NC ended up losing the ensuing elections. 1994: Following the NC’s defeat, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">hung parliament emerged</a> with the UML forming a minority government that lasted only nine months before collapsing after a no-confidence vote, allowing a NC-led coalition to return to power.&nbsp; 1999: Voters gave the NC a second chance and the party won 111 out of 205 seats. The party was divided between supporters of Koirala and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, who became prime minister. &nbsp;The internal NC power struggle intensified and Koirala became prime minister again only to face bribery scandals, the Maoist insurgency, and the royal massacre.&nbsp; In 2001, under growing pressure from both the public and the party, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/20/world/nepal-premier-resigns-caught-in-chaos-after-royal-blood-bath.html" target="_blank">Koirala was forced to resign</a> to be replaced by Sher Bahadur Deuba. The party eventually split into Koirala’s NC and Deuba’s NC (Democratic). &nbsp;In this chaos, king Gyanendra dissolved the parliament and assumed executive powers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="753" loading="lazy" alt="Deuba and Girija"> </figure>  2017: This was the first election under the federal constitution. The UML and Maoists created a surprise pre-electoral alliance, breaking the Maoist coalition with the NC. The left alliance won a massive victory with the UML winning 121 seats and the Maoists 53 seats. Prime Minister K P Oli fell out with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists. The House was dissolved, with the UML itself breaking into factions. What followed was seven shaky coalition governments in eight years.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7" data-rendition-name="original" width="667" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Oli and Prachanda"> </figure>  2022: The RSP was formed only four months prior to elections, but managed to become the fourth-largest party. In this month’s &nbsp;election, the RSP won a commanding parliamentary majority by presenting itself to the electorate as different from the discredited old parties.&nbsp; The RSP leadership structure is largely personality-driven and opaque. Party leader Rabi Lamichhane joined the governing coalition with the Maoists and UML securing four ministerial positions. Lamichhane became Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, using his swing vote to be the kingmaker party in the coalition. Lamichhane was embroiled in various scandals which he blamed on political vendetta. There was internal dissent within the party and among supporters who felt the coalition betrayed RSP’s founding ideals.&nbsp; Lamichhane <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/key-ally-quits-government-in-nepal/" target="_blank">reportedly</a> bypassed the party’s internal mechanisms, unilaterally deciding to pull out of the government without broad consultation.&nbsp; The youth-led September protests gave the RSP an opportunity to represent GenZ aspirations, and its popularity was cemented after Balendra Shah joined the party as a prime ministerial candidate.&nbsp; With its dramatic election victory, there is a question whether the &nbsp;party can separate itself from its two leaders, and have internal democracy. Or will it just be a vessel for new political elites to continue staying in power?&nbsp; ‘BALEN PARTY’ The RSP has increasingly relied on the same tactics that the NC once used in its heyday. Backed by Balendra Shah’s meteoric rise to fame, the RSP is called ‘The Balen Party’. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/cyberia/rsp-s-pr-list-is-not-good-pr" target="_blank">RSP’s PR list</a> includes celebrities, actors, singers, pageant winners, business personalities, and athletes to maximise visibility and public appeal. Many of these soon-to-be MPs have little to no experience working in government, or together as a team. Which is perhaps why they needed a two-day orientation last week. In today’s attention economy, political currency depends on visibility. This is why the RSP’s strategy to harness Shah’s popularity was necessary to secure victory, while Shah needed a political platform for the election.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Balen and Rabi"> </figure>  Political parties are essential for a democracy, but when they &nbsp;revolve around one dominant leader, internal institutions become weak, and decision-making becomes centralised in the leader rather than in party committees, rules, or ideological platforms.&nbsp; This is exactly what led to the downfall of the NC and the UML. Both over the years were ridden with inter- and intra-party strife and failed the electorate. RSP must take a lesson from this and unite to institutionalise beyond its two personalities. Or it will suffer the same fate as the legacy parties. Since its inception, RSP has espoused a populist and anti-establishment agenda. The ‘new’ RSP with the Balendra brand gained massive support by being a clear ‘other’.&nbsp; The RSP can fall into the same trap as the NC and the UML by defining itself by what it is not, rather than what it is for. Beyond the external enemies they oppose, these parties often struggle to articulate what they actually stand for.&nbsp; RSP positions itself as an alternative to established parties — a pragmatic, results-oriented political force rather than one driven by traditional ideologies. However,<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/theorizing-in-comparative-politics/parties-and-ideology/8386083191B53EC86A239B8852D4A6A6" target="_blank"> ideology gives a party identity and direction.</a> Without ideological grounding, RSP risks becoming a hollow vessel for power-chasing politicians who oppose each other’s every move, a story that is all too familiar.&nbsp; RSP can no longer define itself as being anti-establishment. It is now the establishment.&nbsp; While RSP might look like Congress 2.0 to many who have seen Nepal’s democratic trajectory, RSP does differ from past majority parties in both positive and negative ways.&nbsp; Times have also changed. Nepal is no longer a monarchy, literacy rates are much higher, social media has made information more accessible, and Nepalis are less forgiving, as seen by the events that transpired on 8-9 September 2025.&nbsp; The RSP has fielded more qualified candidates, and they could steer the country in the right direction. Many are experts in their fields and have had years of experience prior to joining politics. Having experts from such different backgrounds is a huge asset.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="RSP new MPs"> </figure>  Moreover, having MPs from various other parties/fields can also prevent a cult following of hardcore loyalists within the party.&nbsp; There are members loyal to certain RSP leaders in the party, but there are also those who will not hesitate to go against their leaders if need be. The RSP has little opposition in Parliament, so its own members may have to take on a check-and-balance role. Nepal is in a much better spot institutionally compared to what it was like back in the early days of its democracy. There is a Constitution, there is no active conflict, the monarchy is no longer an existential threat to democracy, and the local and provincial governmental bodies have had the time to settle.&nbsp; This means the RSP is in a better position to work without the basic institutional hurdles that previous governments faced, but it will not be able to hide behind institutional issues if it fails to deliver.&nbsp; In the past, majority parties could easily pin the blame on an authoritarian monarchy, a Maoist conflict, a lack of consensus during the constitution-building process, or a newly implemented federal system.&nbsp; Most of these were just excuses for incompetency. Governments were formed and fell based on self-serving negotiations, but they managed to keep the parties afloat, and the citizenry was willing to give them a second, third, or even fourth chance.&nbsp; The RSP will not have this privilege. Nepal has many problems, but its governmental bodies are better institutionalised than when the NC last had a majority. A challenge for RSP now would be fixing broken institutions, not building new ones. A recurring issue during Balendra Shah’s tenure as Kathmandu’s mayor were his <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2026/01/28/can-nepal-s-viral-mayor-run-the-country" target="_blank">disputes with the bureaucracy</a> that resulted in months of unpaid salary for KMC staff, a lack of collaboration between him and Deputy Mayor Sunita Dangol, and rarely any public appearances.&nbsp; The RSP is inheriting a bureaucracy tainted by deep-seated patronage networks. Sustaining a government requires institutional collaboration and a willingness to work together, not disruption and division.&nbsp; While Nepal has seen the rise of many populist figures in its democratic history, the RSP’s victory based on Balendra Shah’s fame is new. Populism is usually harmful for a democracy because it punishes dissent, turns criticism into betrayal, and fuels hyper-nationalism, authoritarianism, and polarisation. A trend of punishing criticism is already visible on online spaces. Without an effective parliamentary opposition, the responsibility for democratic accountability will fall on the media and civil society. If the trend of intolerance to criticism deepens, Nepal risks sliding toward a majoritarian politics where popularity replaces accountability. Time and again, the Nepali people have given opportunities to parties that promise change, only to face disappointment. Nepal’s political history shows that majority governments fail not because they lack seats, but because they lack institutions.&nbsp; The electoral earthquake Nepal just witnessed could bring sweeping reforms or drown the country’s fragile democracy. If RSP hopes to succeed where others failed, it must build a party that outlives its founders. Suvexa Pradhan Tuladhar is an Early Career Policy Research Fellow at the Nepal Institute for Policy Research (NIPoRe).

Will it be different this time in Nepal?

Sometimes, we need to take a step back to realise what a tectonic movement Nepali politics witnessed this month.
In a region and world ruled by elected authoritarians, Nepalis &nbsp;went to the ballot box freely to express a collective will for change.
These faces in this group photo of the RSP’s 180 freshly-minted MPs at the ballroom of the Royal Tulip Hotel on Wednesday is symbolic of what Nepal has come through.&nbsp;
The ship of state righted itself after the September Storm, installing an interim government that held an election within six months in which voters banished obsolete politicians and their parties into oblivion.
Nepalis, fed up with the inept kakistocracy of the past three decades, took the country into a post-ideological phase — replacing Marxists, Maoists and monarchists &nbsp;with a belief in a new governing culture that rewards delivery and accountability. And they have trusted the RSP to carry it through.
Nepal’s history has never been linear, it jerks ahead in lurches. The polity also tends to take one step forward and two steps back, so the public’s great expectations is tempered by a sense of cautious optimism and guarded pessimism.
This could be the great leap forward that Nepalis have waited for and deserve, but it could also be a Gramscian interregnum in which the old is dead and the new is not yet born. We will have to wait to see whether this transitional period will also see ‘morbid symptoms’.
As disruptor-in-chief, it was the Balendra Shah ‘wave’ or ‘craze’ that propelled the RSP to power. The former Kathmandu mayor needed a party platform, and the RSP’s tainted leader Rabi Lamichhane required a booster. Nepal's voters were looking for a saviour.
Personality-wise Shah and Lamichhane are poles apart: one is Type B and the other Type A. One is enigmatic, the other phlegmatic. But yin and yang do also tend to complement each other.&nbsp;
Kathmandu’s chattering class is already making self-fulfilling prophecies about the two falling out, and are fishing for hints that they already have. Shah’s absence from the RSP’s orientation this week was taken as a clue.&nbsp;
Closing the two-day tutorial on Wednesday, Lamichhane delivered a fiery 30-minute speech that laid out the RSP’s main agenda: to function differently from the old parties, serve the people, avoid middlemen, become true lawmakers without taking the law into their own hands.&nbsp;
“The old political parties contributed to history, we will build the future with a new political contract with citizens,” he said, trying to rise over past controversies and his abrasive rhetoric to sound statesmanlike.&nbsp;
GIVE AND TAKE
Lamichhane is said to be in touch with the reclusive Shah to announce a compact cabinet next week. Its composition will be an indication of how much give-and-take there was, and whether the criteria for selecting ministers is competence or loyalty.
Will RSP ministers behave like rulers or service providers? The new government will dive right into the economic fallout of the West Asia war with soaring fuel &nbsp;prices, inflation and uncertainty about remittance inflows.
On Thursday, Gagan Thapa resigned as NC chair, taking moral responsibility for the party’s election loss. The UML’s unrepentant K P Oli does not share the same sentiment about who is responsible for his own party’s historic downfall.&nbsp;
NCP chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who was luckier than his cross-party cohort, is now a comparative relic in a Parliament largely comprised of freshmen and sophomore lawmakers.
But the NC, UML and NCP still control provincial and most municipal governments. The old parties could try to make things difficult for the RSP at the centre, but it is also an opportunity for them to clean up their act ahead of local elections next year.&nbsp;
Another test for the RSP will be dealing with a heavily-politicised klepto-bureaucracy which has to frontend its policy decisions. &nbsp;

People’s power

Deadly floods two years ago along the southern fringes of Kathmandu Valley killed 200 people. Climate change was blamed, but the destruction was magnified by quarries and sand mining owned by local politicians and crony contractors. Disaster mitigation and environmental risk was not a priority for any of the political parties that ran and won Nepal’s election last week. Although the RSP has a supermajority, rural municipalities that grant mining contracts are still ruled by the established parties that supply aggregates and sand to feed &nbsp;Kathmandu’s construction boom. Here in Lele Valley, residents are worried about another monsoon season that will start in June and fear more floods bringing unmanaged gravel from quarries down the Nallu River.&nbsp; The house of Sanumaya Nagarkoti, 65, and ten neighbours were washed away by the flood on the night of 28 September 2024. She and her husband petitioned the ward and municipal council to remove the crushers but no one listened. The slopes above are scarred by landslides from two years ago, and the banks of the river are strewn with bounders the size of cars that were brought down. “We live in constant fear of landslides,” says Chakra Nagarkoti, “the heavy crusher machinery and tipper trucks also constantly shake the house.”&nbsp; Google Earth images show that 24.6 hectares of mountain flanks have been excavated since 2010, and despite the disaster no lessons have been learnt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090348_bdce7f17500eadac0ce0814c32c2b4190d01325976fd4d29db9985148459c0bc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260319090348_bdce7f17500eadac0ce0814c32c2b4190d01325976fd4d29db9985148459c0bc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="907" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Photo: GOOGLE EARTH</figcaption> </figure>  The RSP might have got a near two-thirds majority in Parliament but decision-making at the community level is controlled by politicians in cahoots with contractors.&nbsp; Along the Mahadev Khola, the Department of Mines cancelled excavation permits for crushers citing flood and landslide risk. Yet there are still 21 contractors mining stones and sand.&nbsp; Nearby Godavari Municipality also instructed operators who had not renewed permits to close down. No action was taken. One of them is Vinayak Multipurpose which delivers aggregate and stones for United Cement. Local ward chair Milan Silwal, has a stake in Vinayak and locals accuse him of taking the side of industry.&nbsp; Another slope is being gouged out near Mahadev Khola, and comparing satellite imagery from 2010 shows that the scar on the mountain is now five times bigger.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090348_21a8f7f7f9d6cc784c35719da737b20283f934bbe16c9de971d91bf01012499a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260319090348_21a8f7f7f9d6cc784c35719da737b20283f934bbe16c9de971d91bf01012499a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1125" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>United Cement operating near Mahadev Khola. Photo: ARCHANA DARJI</figcaption> </figure>  Nearby stands the lone house of 55-year-old Sabina Tamang, who lives with her husband and daughter. Due to the sound of the stone-breakers, they cannot hear each other speak. “Last year, a landslide destroyed our cowshed and latrine,” she says. “Next it is going to be our home.”&nbsp; DRY SPRINGS Lele gets its water from several perennial springs which have gone dry in recent years. One of them is near where the cement factory quarries limestone. “We hardly get any water, and the little that does flow is murky and red,” says local resident Rajesh Shrestha. A parliamentary committee directive ordered excavation to stop 15 years ago after a similar flood to the one in 2024.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090352_af7da754299116578cc1dd91d5318ec337b69e74b0676599260b7c57c6ec6fd7.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260319090352_af7da754299116578cc1dd91d5318ec337b69e74b0676599260b7c57c6ec6fd7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="494" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Lele over the years. Photo: GOOGLE EARTH</figcaption> </figure>  United Cement’s manager Hari Upreti says his company has fulfilled all requirements and has permission to mine 15 hectares of its own property and 4 hectares of government land. “We have the Department of Mines permit which is valid till 2036 and extract 1,600 tons of limestone every day,” says Upreti. “The local community knew about the mining and if there is a problem with springs going dry it is not because of us.” Environmental researcher Uttambabu Shrestha, however, says there is a direct correlation between the quarry operation and floods, landslides and dry springs.&nbsp; “Extraction should not be allowed without an environmental impact assessment, and companies must stick to set limits,” he says. Investigation of permits show that there is collusion between local officials and contractors. Godavari-6 Chair Bishnuman Maharjan has investment in two quarries and crusher companies operating along Nallu Khola. A paper trail links Maharjan also to Sagarmatha Stone Crusher and Mankamana Aggregate Industries. IMPUNITY&nbsp; Godavari Municipality published a notice in June 2024, instructing crusher companies to submit environmental reports within two weeks, covering initial examination and impact assessment. It also told them to pay local development fees and clear outstanding dues. The municipality even wrote to the Department of Mines clarifying that it had issued permits to only five out of 27 contractors. Within a month, the Department wrote to the District Administration Office (DAO) and District Police Office instructing them to stop illegal excavation, and sent a copy to the Lalitpur Division Forest Office. The DAO then wrote to Lalitpur Police naming Machindranath Multipurpose as operating illegally and should be shut down. There was no followup. The municipality then issued fines worth Rs 60 million to it and one other company for non-compliance. The companies stalled, disputing the calculations.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260319090356_6e96403d3c5be4aef4d030974d6d92029a0eb396deafd19c511978dae30dd3d2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260319090356_6e96403d3c5be4aef4d030974d6d92029a0eb396deafd19c511978dae30dd3d2" data-rendition-name="original" width="4000" height="2250" loading="lazy" alt="Lele"> <figcaption>Another site of extraction near Mahadev Khola in Godavari. </figcaption> </figure>  Machhindranath Multipurpose operator Kedar Timalsina Shashi denies doing anything wrong, and says the landslides were collateral damage because of the steep terrain. When contacted Godavari Municipality Deputy Mayor Muna Adhikari declined to comment. It has been 10 years since Rajesh Shrestha, Nikesh Shrestha, and others raised their voices against the environmental destruction caused by the construction mafia. An agreement was finally reached two years ago between locals and mining and transport businessmen, stipulating that stone mines must close permanently by mid-2025. The agreement also stated that check dams must be built to manage mining debris, and damaged structures must be restored to their original state. Trees were to be planted at sites where stone mines had operated. But the mines in the catchment are still in operation with 500 tipper trucks working on the site every day, transporting stones and aggregate. Local youth have continued holding sit-in street protests and at Lalitpur DAO.&nbsp; After one sit-in, the mines closed for about a month but they started back up a month later.&nbsp; Birendra Maharjan owns one of the crusher units, and says he follows all environmental protocols. He told us: “You need stones to build, and we must dig to extract stones. Some trees have to be cut, people get employment, and besides, floods and landslides happen across Nepal.” &nbsp;&nbsp; Centre for Investigative Journalism – Nepal.

Loot in Lele

This week, the RSP held a two-day closed orientation camp for its newly elected members of Parliament. The party has also decided to assign parliamentary and Cabinet roles to leaders only after the new MPs are sworn in on 28 March.&nbsp;
This means the new prime minister and his cabinet of 15 ministers are likely to be installed closer to the Nepali New Year, and the expectation is that it will also usher in a new era of governance and politics in Nepal.&nbsp;
Between now and then, there is much speculation regarding who will become new ministers and from which camp—Balendra Shah's or Rabi Lamichanne’s. Meanwhile, the final argument in the petition against the Rabi Lamichanne case revision is set for Thursday, with a verdict expected on the same day.
“In the past, parties did anything to form coalitions and to keep them from splitting ministries and appointing anyone they wanted to, even going against the spirit of the Constitution, but the RSP doesn’t need to partake in any such activities,” says political analyst Indra Adhikari.
Adhikari notes that governance failures in the past was often the result of coalition governments formed through political bargaining that meant the primary party often had to compromise on their agenda.&nbsp;
“But nothing is stopping the party from fulfilling its election manifesto,” she says. “And if they aren’t able to deliver, we know Nepalis are prone to protests, so another revolt is also a possibility.”
Journalist and author Mohan Mainali agrees that the everyday Parliamentary proceedings should go smoothly for new government because of their majority.&nbsp;
But there are questions as to what a near two-thirds majority allows the RSP to achieve in Parliament. Its 182 seats in the Lower House allows the party to enact and amend laws without hurdles and bypass Upper House’s request for Bill revisions. But the RSP has no presence in the National Assembly, and that means that its majority in the Lower House is not enough to amend the Constitution.&nbsp;
“The Constitution poses no obstacles for the RSP to work on improving governance, development and delivery,” says Mainali. &nbsp;“If they do show some performance, it will be easier for them to go into the next election and ask for a two-thirds majority to also amend the constitution,” he adds.
The last coalition government of the UML and Nepali Congress before the GenZ protests had been built upon a primary agreement to make amendments to the Constitution. So, depending on the nature of amendments, the RSP might find some support within the National Assembly at a time when some of the older parties, such as the Nepali Congress, have committed to supporting the new government as well as internal party reforms.
“What we need is a structural overhaul, from our laws and foreign policy to economy and security apparatus, and for this the RSP needs to champion collaboration and consultation for the sake of nation building,” says Indra Adhikari. “So it all comes down to the understanding and judgment of the RSP’s leadership. If they try to go at it alone, it will lead nowhere.”
To be sure, the provincial government could also clean up their act before the next local and provincial elections, which would help the older parties to regain some of their lost footing and rebuild trust.
As it stands, RSP lawmakers will also have to learn to work with each other. Mainali notes that the RSP not being bound by one clear ideology might lead to future problems, including the rumoured animosity between party president Rabi Lamichhane and prime minister-in-waiting Balendra Shah.
“Parties that came before the RSP had an ideology, whether they followed them or not, but the RSP is made of different kinds of people,” says Mainali. “If they are not motivated by a common goal of achieving something tangible in the next five years, it might be difficult for them to stay together.”
Adds Adhikari: “Balendra and Rabi don’t seem to be compatible. Rabi has already failed when it comes to the matters of governance, and Balendra won’t carry that burden. Additionally, there is a struggle between the two in terms of party hierarchy.”
Speaking at the closing of the two-day orientation, from which Balendra Shah was noticably absent, Rabi Lamichanne said that the RSP’s image as intolerant needs to be changed, and that the country is not heading towards totalitarianism but is in the hands of good, new people.
Regardless of the assurance, the general public has seen Balendra Shah and Lamichanne’s disposition in the last several years, and analysts are worried that their personalities and ambition might lead to an environment of increased intolerance.&nbsp;
As it stands in absence of a strong opposition, the responsibility falls on the media and the civil society to be the watchdog and play an effective check and balance role.&nbsp;
“Seeing how Balendra has ignored the media so far and Rabi has made inflammatory remarks in the past, they are probably more intolerant than the likes of Trump and Modi,” says Mainali. He notes that the party does not just have technical human resource and cyber army but a large number of dedicated supporters.&nbsp;
The media must thus continue to build trust by highlighting good work, educating the public on the importance of impartial journalism in democracy and debate any Bill purposed in Parliament, Mainali adds.&nbsp;
Says Adhikari: “The media should praise the government when they do well, motivate them, but it should also point out wrongdoings without fear, and provide recommendations to do better. Otherwise, absolute power corrupts absolutely, which we have seen happen happen in America with Trump and in India with Modi, where extremism has taken over and democracy has been curtailed.”