Despite the contemporary narrative that Nepalis are giving up on their country and are migrating in droves, a recent public opinion poll shows that nearly half the Nepalis are still positive about the direction the country has been going since the last election in 2022.
Asked if they feel that the situation has worsened, improved, or remained the same in the past two years, 45.4% of the respondents in the nationwide survey said they were satisfied about the way Nepal is headed. Of them, 13.9% of respondents said they were ‘significantly positive’, while 31.5% said they were ‘somewhat positive’ about the situation in Nepal over the past two years.
Although 34.6% of those answering the question believed that the socio-political situation in the country was ‘unchanged’ since 2022, Sharecast Initiative in its analysis of the results, said there was ‘a notable sense of optimism about the current state of affairs’.
Even so, about 18% felt the situation was either ‘significantly negative’ or ‘somewhat negative’. And most respondents (35%) felt there had been no change in the country’s situation in the past two years.
“If we count those who say ‘no change’ as not being satisfied and add that to those who had a negative view of the way the country is going, then we have 55% of the people not happy,” says Madhu Acharya of the research organisation Sharecast Initiative Nepal, which conducts annual public opinion polls.
Still, 45% of the people being positive means the national mood is not as pervasively cynical and despondent as Nepal’s public sphere believes it is. Even more unexpected, and also contrary to prevailing perceptions, is that disaggregated data of the responses showed that the level of optimism is highest among young Nepalis, especially women. It was also higher, not surprisingly, among those in the higher income brackets.
A higher percentage of female respondents (15.6%) thought Nepal’s current situation was ‘signficantly positive’ while only 12% of males felt that way. More men (11.5%) also had a ‘negative’ view of the past two years, compared to only 7% of women feeling the same way.
Provincewise, most of those surveyed in Bagmati and Gandaki said there had been no change, while in the Madhes Province respondents held strong views with 26.5% saying they were ‘signficantly positive’ and 15.7% feeling things are ‘signficantly negative’ — both positive and negative responses were higher in Madhes than any other province.
Because Nepal’s migration pattern is blurring the lines between city folk and those residing in villages, the level of positivity was at equal levels in both urban and rural areas of the country, with nearly half the respondents in both areas feeling ‘somewhat’ and ‘significantly’ positive about their circumstances.
Literacy appears to play a significant role in determining satisfaction with the state of affairs. Generally, those with higher education were happier than those with less education. Illiterate respondents had the most negative view about their status.
Even though understanding among media commentators is that Nepali youth are frustrated and cannot wait to leave the country, the survey showed that 54% of those in the 18-24 age group were either ‘somewhat’ or ‘significantly’ positive about the state of things. In general the older people are, the less happy they seem to be about the way things are.
The survey results showed that even though those with higher incomes are generally more satisfied, one-tenth of them felt ‘significantly negative’ about the way things are going in Nepal.
The scientific poll was conducted face-to-face earlier this year among 4,267 respondents from all seven provinces and three ecological zones. Nearly 70 supervisors and enumerators fanned out across the country to interview Nepalis selected by domicile, gender, walks of life, socio-economic strata, ethnicity in the ratio of their representation in the population.
Most Nepalis see progress in gender equality, but cite problems:
1. Violence against women
