A 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 1255 shook the entire Himalayan region, Tibetan plateau and northern India. We know the exact date because there are historical records that one-third of the population of Kathmandu was killed, including King Abhaya Malla. At about this time, in central Nepal the entire western flank of Annapurna 4 broke off and fell into the glacier below, damming the Seti River gorge and covering the basin in pulverised rock and melting ice. Geologists have known that it was a debris flow on the Seti that formed the terraces of sediment in Pokhara Valley, but <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06040-5">a recent paper</a> in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06040-5">Nature</a> has for the first time described just how cataclysmic this event was and that it could happen again. The rockslide was so enormous that it chopped off 500m of the top of the paleo-summit of Annapurna 4, which means the mountain was at one time an eight-thousander. The peak is now 7,525m, and scientists estimate that 23 km3 of rock fell nearly 3,000 vertical metres into the Sabche Cirque with terrific kinetic energy. The study titled Medieval Demise of a Himalayan Giant Summit Induced by Mega-landslide has Jérôme Lavé of CNRS, Université de Lorraine in France as lead author, and includes among others Ananta Prasad Gajurel of the Department of Geology, Tribhuvan University. Although the study is an investigation into ways in which Himalayan mountains erode along their glaciers and headwalls, it takes as a case study the Annapurna 4 rockfall in approximately 1190CE. &nbsp;&nbsp; ‘Our data suggest that a mode of high-altitude erosion could be mega-rockslides, leading to the sudden reduction of ridge-crest elevation by several hundred metres and ultimately preventing the disproportionate growth of Himalayan peaks,’ the introduction to the paper notes, suggesting that the erosion of the peaks could happen in sudden ridge collapses and not just through mass wasting.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230718150720_d574c8ddc7596812293db6982abe17a0cb4005d5ed9c4c8d81b64f93af064c07.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20230718150720_d574c8ddc7596812293db6982abe17a0cb4005d5ed9c4c8d81b64f93af064c07" data-rendition-name="original" width="1806" height="1698" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara Valley"> <figcaption>Nepali Times issue #704 of 2 May 2012 analysing the rockfall of 2012. Read the story: https://issuu.com/nepalitimes/docs/nepali_times__705</figcaption> </figure>  The scientists examined the debris in the Sabche Cirque which in the past 800 years has eroded into sharp limestone pinnacles with exposed glacier-polished bedrock below. They conclude that the breccia came down in the collapse of Annapurna 4. In their paper, Lavé et al have sketched models of the mountain as it probably existed before its collapse, showing where the immediate debris fell, and where it was eventually transported downstream by the Seti River to create the 200m deep sediment fan on which the city of Pokhara is located today. The deposits brought down by the river dammed side streams, creating Phewa, Rupa, Begnas and other lakes that make the valley so scenic today. The Nature paper says the catastrophic Sabche rockslide has lessons for present-day Nepal: ‘Giant rockslides also have implications for landscape evolution and natural hazards: the massive supply of finely crushed sediments can fill valleys more than 150 km farther downstream and overwhelm the sediment load in Himalayan rivers for a century or more.’ Indeed, the summit ridge of Annapurna 4 is still raw and sees frequent rockfalls, including a smaller one almost <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330">exactly at the same spot in May 201</a>2 and an ensuing flood on the Seti River that killed at least 70 people downstream near Pokhara. Although the authors do not seem to think the rockslide 800 years ago was caused by a seismic event, there are records of big earthquakes in central Nepal in 1223, 1255 and five years later in 1260, which approximately fit the timeline of the scientists for the Sabche event.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230718150720_be91b7bfe18290a2f0bbc16e263413ee5994d0bf2656a58719d4252cc306ef9a.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20230718150720_be91b7bfe18290a2f0bbc16e263413ee5994d0bf2656a58719d4252cc306ef9a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1231" height="809" loading="lazy" alt="Annapurna Pokhara Valley"> <figcaption>Google 3D map of the Annapurnas, showing Annapurna 4 before its collapse in an event 800 years ago, as proposed by scientists recently in a paper in the journal Nature. This satellite image taken in October 2017 shows dust from a more recent rockfall in 2012.</figcaption> </figure>  Even if the rockfall was not directly caused by an earthquake, the differential in the pace of erosion of the glacial valley and the headwall could eventually lead to failure of overhanging slopes. Scientists have speculated that climate change-induced melting of the permafrost that cements rocks together above the 0oC isotherm could have been a factor in the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Anatom-of-a-Himalayan-tsunami,1330">2012 collapse on Annapurna IV</a> and on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">Saldim Peak in the Makalu-Barun in 2017</a>.

Kunda Dixit

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Pokhara 800 years ago

Hiding their head in the sand

<figure><img width="1104" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b93a89c7e80680e06f1b8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Even as Nepal’s delegates at virtual meetings preparing for a Climate Summit in Glasgow in November were raising the issue of risk from the climate crisis last week, in the real world the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon season got off to a devastating start</a>.There could not have been a starker reminder of just how a changing climate leads to extreme weather. Record rainfall last week unleashed floods that killed more than 50 people, damaged 12 hydroelectric plants and washed away roads, bridges and homes across Central Nepal. The heavy rains followed a five-month winter drought that set off unprecedented <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">nationwide wildfires</a>. Nepali climate experts raised concerns at the meetings that due recognition was not being given to mountain ecosystems and helping poorer countries to deal with the impact of the climate crisis in the run-up to the Glasgow climate summit, officially called the Conference of Parties 26 (CoP26).Nepal has one of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">lowest per capita carbon footprints</a> in the world, but it is on the list of countries most vulnerable to changes in the climate. Even in the best-case scenario for limited global average temperature by reducing carbon emissions, the Himalaya will lose more than one-third of its ice during this century.“Even if we are successful in limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C, it will be equivalent to an 1.8°C rise in the Hindu Kush Himalayas and we will be losing 36% snow by the end of the century,” said Arun Bhatta, an undersecretary at the Ministry of Forests and Environment. What happens to the Himalaya will have serious implications for 650 million people across Asia who depend on rivers that originate here, Bhatta told the three-week virtual preparatory sessions that ended on 17 June. Many other countries in the sessions raised concern about inadequate discussion on how least-developed countries can be compensated for loss and damage from climate-induced disasters, and for measures to adapt to new threats from global warming.Nepali delegates underlined the need to prioritise mountain eco-systems, climate financing for poorer countries and unmet pledges for climate financing from developed countries. They said there was a differential impact of the climate emergency on the Himalaya that needed specific attention and international support. The virtual meetings were held to prepare key agenda items for the Glasgow Summit, which because of the pandemic, will probably not be an in-person conference in November. The meetings were hosted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of which Nepal is a party and signatory of the 2015 Paris Agreement.Throughout the three weeks of virtual meetings, delegates discussed adaptation, loss and damage, the carbon market, and reporting under the <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)</a>, climate finance, agriculture and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP).  <figure><img width="922" height="716" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121148/636b93ab9c7e80680e06f1b9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>With rising global awareness about the climate crisis, the CoP26 aims to generate major contributions from member states to achieve net-zero carbon emission by 2050, protect and restore ecosystems, cap average global temperature at 1.5°C, and mobilise at least $100 million in climate finance every year till then.  As part of the Paris Agreement, member countries have come up with their own NDCs with legally non-binding voluntary contributions to attain net-zero carbon emission. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal submitted its second NDC</a> in December last year to turn 25% of all private vehicles and 20% of all public transport <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/20-electric-by-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vehicles electric by 2025</a>. In 10 years, Nepal’s NDC commits to develop 200km of electric rail network. The climate crisis is already impacting Nepal as seen with recent disasters like floods, landslides, forest fires, Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), and erratic weather. Being a ‘Least Developed Country’ Nepal can receive climate finance to adapt and mitigate the impacts of climate change. One agenda for CoP26 is to pressure the international community for easier access to adequate and predictable climate finance. At the recent virtual meetings delegates stressed that climate finance should be transparent, equitable, fair and based on common but differentiated responsibilities.  Srijana Shrestha, undersecretary at the Ministry of Forest and Environment and a delegate focusing on the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) proposed carrying out a comprehensive vulnerability and risk assessment, and called for finance and technology to implement it.  “In the last 10 years we have only received 21% of the funding for the implementation,” she told the meeting. “We must not repeat the same situation and the international community must support implementing adaptation, and not preparing for it.”   Nepal’s civil society delegates were concerned that the support so far has not even come close to the annual $100 billion pledged by richer countries.  Radha Wagle of the Climate Change Management Division of Nepal’s Ministry of Forests and Environment and head of delegation in the closing plenary urged all countries to aim for the 1.5°C temperature target of the Paris Agreement.  For this, the Glasgow summit will be critical in negotiating various agenda items, including climate finance, capping global emissions and adaptation to the climate crisis. Diya Rijal is a communication consultant for the UK government-funded Policy and Institutions Facility.

Nepal hit by disaster during climate talks

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93019c7e80680e06f180jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1502" height="1000"/><figcaption>Mahendra Shrestha, 61, of Melamchi Bazar breaks down as he surveys the damage to his house on Wednesday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nepal sits upon a pyramid of problems: poverty, inequality, exclusion, domestic violence, social injustice, l<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-epidemic-of-hunger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ack of food</a> ... the list is long.On top of all that, for more than a year now, Nepalis have struggled with the health and economic emergency set off by the pandemic. And this week, we suffered floods that killed at least 25 — mostly in the same areas affected by the 2015 earthquakes.Meanwhile, Nepal’s predominantly rain-fed agriculture is affected by extreme weather events exacerbated by the climate crisis. Nepal had the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG7snQxuyb8ljJ-v8_vj85fB3rJtg">worst wildfire season</a> in living memory this spring. Right across the Himalayan foothills, the mountains burned from November till March – and at its peak there were nearly 2,000 fires raging out of control.The scorched earth barely had time to regenerate when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF6XySMZiv3mcpFc2sspLEcF7C1MQ">the monsoon arrived this week with a bang</a>. A low-pressure system lingered over Central Nepal 13-16 June, dumping record precipitation, much of it in the trans-Himalayan region which is supposed to be in the rain-shadow. The denuded slopes could not hold the water, and the runoff surged into rivers washing away homes, bridges, roads and hydropower plants.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93049c7e80680e06f181jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1174" height="770"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Disasters are of two kinds: ‘natural’ calamities that hit without warning, and slow-moving ones that worsen incrementally. Earthquakes, floods and landslides get all the media attention — especially if there are good social media visuals. News, by definition, has to be unexpected, preferably sudden and with lots of casualties in one place.Journalism is less prepared to cover lingering crises, where thousands die over time, silently and scattered across remote areas of the country. The fact that half the country’s children suffer some form of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/hunger-for-governance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">malnutrition is a disaster</a>  So are the high maternal and neonatal mortality rates. These are silent emergencies.We chronicle the daily Covid-19 death toll, but there are no headlines that say dozens of children died yesterday all over Nepal due to preventable causes. There is no one doing that daily tally, and announcing it in a press briefing.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93079c7e80680e06f182jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2244" height="1122"><figcaption>Aerial view of the Melamchi Water Supply Project headworks is covered in mud after Tuesday's flashflood. Eight staff, including Indian and Chinese nationals are missing. Photo: SHER BAHADUR TAMANG</figcaption></figure><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHKPr6SuzZQataATHZkSSug0XBLuA">Natural disasters are not natural</a>. Floods by themselves do not ‘wreak havoc’, they do so when houses are allowed to be built along floodplains. This week’s floods in Manang, Mustang, Kaski, Sindhupalchok were not unexpected. The intensity of rain may have been beyond our control, but preparing for a flood in a high-risk zone should have been.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/sindhupalchok-losing-hope%20,2224" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/sindhupalchok-losing-hope%2520,2224&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE3Asf_cnEe616L_p7i6YacCKXJnA">Sindhupalchok</a> was hit by both the 25 April and 12 May <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/being-prepared-for-monsoon-and-outbreaks,2293" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/being-prepared-for-monsoon-and-outbreaks,2293&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGldHe3LcBfv9vWQUhfUXZhfPWjmQ">earthquakes in 2015, </a>which caused massive landslides. Haphazard road-building on fragile slopes increased the danger, and one of these landslides blocked the Melamchi about 3 km upstream from the headworks of the water supply project. A similar slope failure dammed the Indrawati.When it burst, the Melamchi Khola swept into the water supply project camp, and eight people including six Indian and Chinese and two Nepali workers are missing. Downstream, two more bodies have been found and 17 are more unsccounted for. Luckily, the 26.5km tunnel bringing water to Kathmandu from Melamchi had been closed a few hours before for inspection, and this saved the project from major damage.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b930a9c7e80680e06f183jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2110" height="1388"><figcaption>The Melamchi Khola was dammed by a landslide 3km upstream from the tunnel intake. Photo: SHER BAHADUR TAMANG</figcaption></figure>The torrent of liquid mud on both rivers arrived simultaneously at their confluence in Melamchi Bazar. Geographer Narendra Khanal has traced the Indrawati River blockage to a point 20km upstream. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology monitoring station shows the Indrawati flowing at 4.7m at 4OM on 15 June, decreasing to 3m, and then shooting up to 6m at 6:45PM.“This is an indication that the river was blocked upstream in an area with major landslides after the 2015 earthquake, and suddenly the water broke through,” Khanal explains.T<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHl03Z5EnJptFLNkk3GSzcew1FCVw">he river overflowed into Melamchi Bazar</a> at high velocity because much of the sand and boulders that would have slowed it down had been mined by construction contractors.He says none of the glacial lakes in the Jugal Himal appear to have burst. Although this was fortunate, it also shows how much more catastrophic future floods can be if <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/danger-nepals-glacial-lakes-are-filling-up/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGpEfjfrRnTUfi0zqzCpVxtkmmU-A">expanding Himalayan lakes formed by global warming burst</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b930c9c7e80680e06f184jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="1074"><figcaption>Google Map showing the Melamchi and Indrawati Rivers and the location of landslide dams. Illustration: NARENDRA KHANAL</figcaption></figure>The reason for the loss of property was not the flood itself, but unplanned construction on the floodplain. Luckily, Ward 11 Chair Rudra Dulal in Melamchi Bazar had advance information about the incoming flood and moved 100 families out of harm's way after informing police to begin evacuation.“We received an early warning and we mobilised our team, informed everyone. This is the only reason why we didn’t have any casualties in our community,” Dulal says.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93109c7e80680e06f185jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1686" height="656"><figcaption>Measurements on the Indrawati on the evening of 15 June showed how the water level dropped and rose suddenly, indicating that the river was dammed upstream. Graph: DoHM</figcaption></figure>Elsewhere, at least 12 under-construction hydropower plants have been badly damaged. The worst hit was a 44MW project nearing completion on the Madi Khola in Kaski. The powerhouse and headworks were hit, while 15 excavators, tipper trucks and other vehicles washed away. Other functioning private and government hydropower plants in Central Nepal have either been shutdown as a precaution, or have been damaged.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-braces-for-monsoon-pandemic-double-hit/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE1lKvl7D25KSM42Af5nLcpa0I1MQ">None of this was unexpected.</a> Anil Pokhrel of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) had warned last week that weather modellers had predicted that this year’s monsoon would be above average in Nepal. What could not be forecast was how much more rain there would be, and which districts would be most vulnerable.Indeed, areas of the Himalayan rain shadow which usually lie north of the mountains and receive scanty rainfall, were also bad affected after continuous rain for 24 hours from Monday till Tuesday afternoon.Pokhrel of the NDRRMA had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGXs55ZclYXxCduK6EEyQl0Crdbfw">written in Nepali Times</a> last week: “<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFbSPEJs2UX-K7QIAOTig451h4l5A">Wildfires that raged for months</a> burnt through forest-shrub cover, undermining the ability of mountain slopes to absorb rainfall and prevent soil erosion. This could potentially result in more landslides and floods.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b93129c7e80680e06f186jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2081" height="1260"><figcaption>Weather modelling by the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum last month showed that the 2021 monsoon would be above normal in most parts of Nepal. Source: NDRRMA</figcaption></figure>Last year was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEDVMmcO2dZ90k97FCI0k-ydO2hNw">the worst monsoon season</a> in the past two decades in terms of casualties: there were 500 major landslides, nearly 300 killed and 70 missing. Most of the landslides were, again, in Sindhupalchok and were blamed on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH4Q6nXwNjQTaXeXHnXeFPJ9JHJfw">poor and unregulated road construction </a>that disturbed the slopes.A cyclonic circulation over northern India means the rains have continued along the Himalayan foothills, and it is forecast to continue through the weekend. In Melamchi Bazar, there was fresh warning of inundation and people were evacuated on Thursday afternoon.As the monsoon progresses, much of the flood action will shift to the Tarai. There, too, this year the floods will 'wreak havoc'. And again, the submergence will largely be due to constriction of rivers by embankments, settlements along flood plains, perimeter walls that act as dams, and the denudation and destruction of the Chure Range.There was a flood of recrimination last year, many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1624001295575000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQI0_rIuaafLfQ4j-eHmMPV_JmRg">commentators lamented the lack of oversight. </a>But there has been no let-up in destructive road-building. This week, Nepal’s seven provinces passed budgets in which most of their revenue is going to be derived from quarry and sand-mining contractors allowed to unsustainably exploit natural resources. The government has allowed river valleys and the fragile Chure <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to be mined for stone exports to India</a>.With politicians distracted by one upmanship, and federalism not functioning because of micro-management by parties in Kathmandu, this season of disasters will be talked about for a while. Until next year’s monsoon.

Disasters in Nepal come in waves

<figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91fe9c7e80680e06f121jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A landslide in Jajarkot last year. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>By any measure, the past year has been disastrous for Nepal. The Covid-19 lockdowns devastated the economy, the 2020 monsoon killed a record number of people, and this year the second wave hit with full force even as governance was paralysed by a prolonged power struggle in the ruling party. Now, Nepalis are bracing themselves for their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second monsoon season during the pandemic</a>, one which meteorological modellers say could dump above normal precipitation over most parts of the country.The other difference with last year is that the second Covid-19 wave is even more virulent and widespread. This means crowded shelters after a flood or landslide will be hotspots for new infections at a time when only 4% of the population is vaccinated.“Covid and floods are contradictory in nature, as one needs physical distancing while the other makes it impossible to do so. This will add to the existing burden,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.She adds: “We can’t prevent floods, but we can reduce its impact. We must concentrate on identifying risk groups and their emergency evacuation, set up shelters with physical distancing, stockpile tents, food and emergency medicines including oral rehydration salts and water purifiers.”Even though last year’s southwest monsoon was said to be 'normal' in Nepal, it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">triggered numerous flash floods and landslides</a>, killing at least 400 people and destroying over 1,000 houses. Entire villages in Sindhupalchok, Jajarkot, Myagdi, Baglung, Kalikot and Bajura districts were buried. The South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall for most of Nepal this year, with more than usual precipitation in most of the Mahabharat and Himalaya, and slightly deficient rainfall in the eastern Tarai. <figure><img width="2081" height="1260" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92019c7e80680e06f122jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>"There is a possibility of floods, landslides and other water-related disasters occurring together during the third and fourth week of July this year when the second wave of the pandemic will still be peaking,” states the government’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan 2021. The probability of flash-floods and landslides are even higher this year because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the wildfires</a>. There were 7,000 fires affecting 75 of Nepal’s 77 districts from November 2020 to May 2021, the highest number ever recorded.  The fires reduced forested slopes to ashes, incinerated the undergrowth, thus reducing the absorptive capacity of the soil. When the rains come, the water will therefore rush down the slopes instead of seeping into the topsoil. “This year’s rainfall is forecast to be higher than last year's average. Based on this analysis, it can be estimated that there will be a significant increase in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides and floods</a> during this year's monsoon,” says meteorologist Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. She adds: “Forecasting is preparedness in some ways. But it has to be effectively communicated, so if we are to wait until landslides have occurred to act, it’s too late and there is no point.” <figure><img width="1050" height="701" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92049c7e80680e06f123jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In the past, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the government has faced criticism</a> for prioritising relief over prevention. This could change with the formation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), which works primarily on preparedness and mitigating risk, while delegating more rescue responsibility to first-responders in local governments.“In earlier years landslides were not discussed as part of our monsoon preparedness plan, only floods were, and this year we set landslides as a priority for preparedness and response also looking at the intersection of wildfires, Covid-19 and the monsoon,” says Anil Pokhrel, who heads NDRRMA that has produced a workplan for monsoon preparedness and response. The NDRRMA with DHM recently trained officials in 36 municipalities in nine of the most high-risk districts (Myagdi, Gorkha, Kalikot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchok, Bajhang, Jajarkot, Syangja and Dailekh) on Impact Based Forecasting which predicts extreme weather events so that at-risk groups can be ready. “We are dealing not just with floods and landslides this time, but also Covid-19. Local communities are setting up rapid response teams to best prevent an outbreak in shelters and maintain health protocols, and spreading awareness through FM radio in local languages,” says Liladhar Adhikari of the NDRRMA. Despite the ‘above normal’ forecast in the models, climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal expects the monsoon to even out unless Nepal experiences cloudbursts over the Mahabharat and Chure ranges. These sudden heavy showers have been the cause of the deadliest floods and landslides in recent years. “We now have the technology to predict localised cloudbursts through Impact Based Forecasting which is crucial in saving lives, all we need now is real-time action so local communities get advance warning,” says Dahal.But predicting and determining the impact of floods and landslides only from the perspective of weather gives us an incomplete picture. The climate crisis has changed precipitation patterns and made extreme weather events more frequent and destructive. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Poorly designed and built roads, bad engineering</a>, and unplanned settlements have disturbed fragile mountain slopes, making them more disaster-prone.“We have in recent times recorded 105mm rain per hour in Surkhet, 100mm in Bajhang and 73 in Kulekhani which is a clear indication that the monsoon is getting more intense, but we are only now trying to understand this trend,” says Dahal. “We need to see whether there are indeed more frequent cloudbursts, or if the disasters are more noticed because they affect new settlements in floodplains and roads that follow river banks.” <figure><img width="1174" height="770" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92079c7e80680e06f124jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>At the NDRRMA, Liladhar Adhikari agrees that in addition to rapid response and rescue, a new development model is crucial in preventing multiple hazards in the long term. “New infrastructure has to adhere to environmental safeguards so that they do not drastically alter the rural landscape and make them more vulnerable to disasters.”Unfortunately, Nepal’s approach to development has been at the expense of nature preservation. The annual budget announced last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will allow quarrying</a> on the already-unstable slopes of Himalayan foothills to export stones and aggregates to India.Epidemiologist Lhamu Yangchen Sherpa has been to several emergency shelters recently, and points out that there is an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/uneven-pandemic-impact-on-nepali-women/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">additional burden on women during disasters</a>.  She says: “Like before and during this coronavirus crisis, women are especially vulnerable in the aftermath of a disaster, we must support them with security in shelters, physical and mental health care during this monsoon in the middle of a pandemic.”

Sonia Awale

Nepal braces for monsoon-pandemic double hit

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131144/636cf22b9c7e80680e09d8edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1333" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: THE STAR/THE PANGOLIN REPORTS</figcaption></figure>Over 172 million infections and nearly 4 million lives later, the exact origin of the Covid-19 pandemic is still a matter of debate. But scientists have a pretty good guess.Early studies pointed to bats as the source of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622851284763000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHJ6TOsHS0_g69zkioRcZxJDNFig">2019 novel coronavirus</a> and epidemiologists say the virus could have jumped to an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-pangolins-in-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">intermediary species like the pangolin</a>, which is a delicacy in certain parts of China, and on to humans.There is now a better understanding of how the rise of zoonotic diseases is associated with the destruction of nature and the flourishing illegal wildlife trade. This could be how the cross-species transmission of SARS-CoV-2 took place in late 2019, but there is little political will to stop the destruction of nature.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131144/636cf22e9c7e80680e09d8eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="535" height="279">“There will always be a risk of pandemics as long as there is demand for bush meat and the destruction of biodiversity,” says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-day-of-pangolins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tulshi Laxmi Suwal</a> of Nepal’s Small Mammal Conservation and Research Foundation who has been involved in pangolin research.Scientists are still debating the natural origin hypothesis for the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 in Wuhan, but the absence of an intermediary host and lack of a chain of mutations in the SARS-2 is shifting attention to the lab-leak theory once again.Whatever the root cause, this is not the first pandemic and it will not be the last if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">planet’s current rate of biodiversity loss</a> continues. The link between the destruction of nature and the rise of new infectious diseases is now recognised, a trend exacerbated by the climate crisis.“The coronavirus pandemic is a much-needed wake-up call but people have short-term memory, they will soon forget the connection to habitat destruction,” says environmentalist Kumar Paudel of the Greenhood Nepal. “Politicians can’t keep destroying the ecology for the sake of economic growth.”Indeed, Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-nepal-budget-sparks-electric-comeback/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new budget</a> announced this week places emphasis on infrastructure and development at the expense of nature preservation. It will allow further plunder of the fragile Chure Hills for quarrying to reduce the $10 billion trade deficit with India.This tendency has seeped down to local governments which are building poorly-designed roads, view towers and concrete monuments at breakneck speed.New highways, irrigation canals, transmission lines and now new rail tracks are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-conservation-nepal-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">slicing through national parks</a>.The most serious destruction is of the last tract of native forests in the eastern Tarai for the construction of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mammoth Nijgad project</a> for which Paudel set allocated money for infrastructure, international investor selection, land acquisition and site clearing.On the occasion of World Environment Day on 5 June, nine of Nepal’s development partners <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/importance-of-ecosystems-for-people-and-the-planet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">issued a statement cautioning the government</a> about the project.‘It is important to ensure that decisions ... for large projects such as Nijgad Airport, are based on sound economic, financial, climate, environmental and social impact analyses in line with Nepal’s established economic, environmental and social regulations, as well as climate and other commitments,’ the statement reads.It is signed by the embassies of Australia, Britain, EU, Finland, France, Germany in Nepal as well as the Kathmandu offices of the Asian Development Bank, United Nations and World Bank in Nepal.With the monsoon approaching, there is the threat of a repeat of last year’s deadly flash floods and landslides triggered by haphazard construction of roads and embankments. These are not ‘natural disasters’ but the result of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bad engineering and unsustainable exploitation of nature</a>.“Covering everything with concrete is not development, and our development model is suicidal, the coronavirus pandemic is just the latest example of this,” explains naturalist Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha. “Even urban life needs to be integrated with natural elements like water bodies, trees, groundwater recharge.”Conservation need not be anti-development. Green policies actually boost the economy: in Nepal protecting charismatic big mammals promoted ecotourism and created jobs, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">community forests</a> yielded ecosystem services by augmenting ground water recharge, a shift to renewable energy can reduce petroleum import.Switching to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electric public transport and battery vehicles</a> to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Nepal Rs21 billion a year – besides promoting domestic clean energy from hydropower, and improving air quality.“We need to link conservation with economy to drive the change, nature-friendly policies and conservation education must be at the forefront,” adds Shrestha.Yet, Nepal’s current economic model threatens the conservation successes that have earned the country international praise. By allowing logging in community forests, building dams in national parks, clearing vast tracts of forests to build <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nijgad airport</a>, and destroying rivers through sand mining will undo decades of achievement.The theme of this World Environment Day on 5 June is ‘Ecosystem Restoration’, and despite lip service Nepal’s government is too distracted by politics to act on this motto.Warns Kumar Paudel: “If we do not change our ways, many more health and environmental crises await us in the near future.”

The nature of pandemics

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121136/636b914f9c7e80680e06f0dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1333" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: THE STAR/THE PANGOLIN REPORTS</figcaption></figure>Over 172 million infections and nearly 4 million lives later, the exact origin of the Covid-19 pandemic is still a matter of debate. But scientists have a pretty good guess.Early studies pointed to bats as the source of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1622851284763000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEHJ6TOsHS0_g69zkioRcZxJDNFig">2019 novel coronavirus</a> and epidemiologists say the virus could have jumped to an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-pangolins-in-the-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">intermediary species like the pangolin</a>, which is a delicacy in certain parts of China, and on to humans.There is now a better understanding of how the rise of zoonotic diseases is associated with the destruction of nature and the flourishing illegal wildlife trade. This could be how the cross-species transmission of SARS-CoV-2 took place in late 2019, but there is little political will to stop the destruction of nature.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121136/636b91529c7e80680e06f0dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="535" height="279">“There will always be a risk of pandemics as long as there is demand for bush meat and the destruction of biodiversity,” says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-day-of-pangolins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Tulshi Laxmi Suwal</a> of Nepal’s Small Mammal Conservation and Research Foundation who has been involved in pangolin research.Scientists are still debating the natural origin hypothesis for the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 in Wuhan, but the absence of an intermediary host and lack of a chain of mutations in the SARS-2 is shifting attention to the lab-leak theory once again.Whatever the root cause, this is not the first pandemic and it will not be the last if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">planet’s current rate of biodiversity loss</a> continues. The link between the destruction of nature and the rise of new infectious diseases is now recognised, a trend exacerbated by the climate crisis.“The coronavirus pandemic is a much-needed wake-up call but people have short-term memory, they will soon forget the connection to habitat destruction,” says environmentalist Kumar Paudel of the Greenhood Nepal. “Politicians can’t keep destroying the ecology for the sake of economic growth.”Indeed, Finance Minister Bishnu Paudel’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-nepal-budget-sparks-electric-comeback/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new budget</a> announced this week places emphasis on infrastructure and development at the expense of nature preservation. It will allow further plunder of the fragile Chure Hills for quarrying to reduce the $10 billion trade deficit with India.This tendency has seeped down to local governments which are building poorly-designed roads, view towers and concrete monuments at breakneck speed.New highways, irrigation canals, transmission lines and now new rail tracks are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-conservation-nepal-is-not-out-of-the-woods-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">slicing through national parks</a>.The most serious destruction is of the last tract of native forests in the eastern Tarai for the construction of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mammoth Nijgad project</a> for which Paudel set allocated money for infrastructure, international investor selection, land acquisition and site clearing.On the occasion of World Environment Day on 5 June, nine of Nepal’s development partners <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/importance-of-ecosystems-for-people-and-the-planet/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">issued a statement cautioning the government</a> about the project.‘It is important to ensure that decisions ... for large projects such as Nijgad Airport, are based on sound economic, financial, climate, environmental and social impact analyses in line with Nepal’s established economic, environmental and social regulations, as well as climate and other commitments,’ the statement reads.It is signed by the embassies of Australia, Britain, EU, Finland, France, Germany in Nepal as well as the Kathmandu offices of the Asian Development Bank, United Nations and World Bank in Nepal.With the monsoon approaching, there is the threat of a repeat of last year’s deadly flash floods and landslides triggered by haphazard construction of roads and embankments. These are not ‘natural disasters’ but the result of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bad engineering and unsustainable exploitation of nature</a>.“Covering everything with concrete is not development, and our development model is suicidal, the coronavirus pandemic is just the latest example of this,” explains naturalist Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha. “Even urban life needs to be integrated with natural elements like water bodies, trees, groundwater recharge.”Conservation need not be anti-development. Green policies actually boost the economy: in Nepal protecting charismatic big mammals promoted ecotourism and created jobs, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">community forests</a> yielded ecosystem services by augmenting ground water recharge, a shift to renewable energy can reduce petroleum import.Switching to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electric public transport and battery vehicles</a> to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Nepal Rs21 billion a year – besides promoting domestic clean energy from hydropower, and improving air quality.“We need to link conservation with economy to drive the change, nature-friendly policies and conservation education must be at the forefront,” adds Shrestha.Yet, Nepal’s current economic model threatens the conservation successes that have earned the country international praise. By allowing logging in community forests, building dams in national parks, clearing vast tracts of forests to build <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nijgad airport</a>, and destroying rivers through sand mining will undo decades of achievement.The theme of this World Environment Day on 5 June is ‘Ecosystem Restoration’, and despite lip service Nepal’s government is too distracted by politics to act on this motto.Warns Kumar Paudel: “If we do not change our ways, many more health and environmental crises await us in the near future.”

<figure><img width="640" height="359" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171144/636bd96e9c7e80680e080212jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Thirty-seven people were killed when a landslide on 12 July tore through the settlement of Lidi of Sindhupalchok district. More than half of them were women. When another landslide in nearby Barabise on 11 August killed 31 people, 20 were women. Most of the 15 still buried under the debris are women.  A month later, another massive flashflood in Dhorpatan of Baglung district washed away nearly the entire village, 22 people were killed and 15 are still missing. Of the dead and missing, 21 are women and 16 men. More women have been killed also in landslides in Myagdi of Tanahu and Parbat districts earlier this year. Nepal’s fragile Himalayan terrain gives it one of the highest fatality rates in the world from landslides and flash floods. And 2020 has been particularly destructive with three times more casualties compared to previous years. So far 291 people have lost their lives, 67 are still missing, and 223 have been injured in 481 landslides across the country between 1 April to 13 September.Women bear the brunt of most disasters like floods, earthquakes and landlsides in Nepal because the countryside has been ‘feminised’ by the outmigration of men. And it is the women who tend to be inside the house more often than men.For example, the 25 April 2015 earthquake struck just before noon on a spring day. The men were mostly out in the fields sowing maize, while women were indoors cooking or doing home chores. Of the total 8,193 fatalities in the 2015 earthquake, 55% (4,497) were women. Even among the children killed, girls (17%) outnumbered boys  (15%). It was only in Kathmandu city that more men than women were kiled five years ago."Women are more likely than men to die from an outbreak or a disaster because they have less access to information and seldom participate in disaster learning skills,” says Sirjana Tamang, vice-chair of Jugal village of Sindhupalchok which saw multiple landslides this monsoon. “Socio-cultural perceptions of sexuality and traditional beliefs about gender responsibility also put women at greater risk in disasters.” <figure><img width="966" height="634" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171144/636bd9719c7e80680e080213jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Casualties of the 2015 Nepal earthquake.</figcaption></figure>This trend is prevalent worldwide. The Asian Development Bank's 2013 study found that women had higher mortality rates than men in major disasters in Asia. Of those killed in the April 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, 91% were women, and 67% of the casualties in Aceh of Indonesia in the 2004 tsunami were women.  Researchers from the London School of Economics and the University of Essex studied major outbreaks in 141 countries around the world from 1981 to 2002. They concluded more women than men died in the disasters. The Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) also concluded that women are more at risk from disasters than men. The findings were published in its 2019 report ‘The Hindu Kush Himalayan Assessment’ which analysed statistics from the 2015 and of other natural disasters of the last few decades in the Himalaya. This reflects on the Women's Resilience Index (WRI) that assesses countries’ capacity for risk reduction in disaster and recovery. Nepal performed poorly scoring only 45.2 out of 100 points in the list compiled by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and ActionAid. "It’s not that women are more affected in disasters, but their different role in society does lead to more impact,” says Basanta Sapkota of Nepal’s Ministry of Forest and Environment. “Women also have limited access to disaster prevention systems. There is also language barrier.”  ICIMOD’s research also concluded that gender inequality reduces women's access to early warning systems, and that they are more vulnerable because rescue and management are not targeted at them. Much of the information and decision-making process about early warning systems and pre-disaster rescue is under the purview of men.  Similarly, ADB reports that gender issues have not been adequately addressed in intervening in natural disasters. Lack of access and control for women in post-disaster situations, including shelters, transportation and food, is another major reason for their risk. There have also been many cases of sexual violence against women in rescue camps post-disasters. Therefore, it is not enough to just tally the total fatalities  when discussing the impact of the disaster on women, say experts. The risk is also heightened by women’s reproductive role: mothers of new-borns or pregnant women also have to care for their babies. Reduction in food productivity, loss of livestock and shortage of water after a disaster also disproportionately affects women.  Climate change expert Ngamindra Dahal says women are also more affected by slow-moving disasters like climate change. In fact, women and children are more at risk in all three phases: pre-, during and post-disasters. In the aftermath of a disaster, women are less likely to find work, and more likely to be responsible for their families. "Women don't have much of a role in making a disaster worse, but the impact is greater on them," says Dahal. "Planning and investment should be focused on women to reduce the impact of disasters and enable them." The government has enacted some laws and policies addressing disaster management and preparedness: National Strategy for Disaster Management, Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, and Climate Change Policy. However, they either do not have a clear perspective on gender vulnerabilities, nor programs targeting women at risk.  Increasing women's participation in training and groups such as rehearsals, rescue teams, and first aid for disaster relief could be a start to bridging this gap.

Why more women die in Nepal’s natural disasters

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109151116/636bb6449c7e80680e07bc4fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="475"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The heavy toll in landslides and floods during this year’s rainy season in Nepal have overshadowed another frequent disaster: lightning.This week’s incessant rains left 12 more people killed and nine are still missing in landslides, taking the total this monsoon season to 350 -- the deadliest in the past decade.However, the high death toll in landslides have masked the second biggest cause of death: lightning. Nepal’s high terrain, frequent thunderstorms and densely populated mountains make it one of the most dangerous places to be during a thunderstorm.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lightning-kills-more-people-than-floods-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lightning kills more people than floods in Nepal</a>, Sonia AwaleAlthough lightning can strikes anywhere, the most deadly ones are in the mountains and the most dangerous time is the pre-monsoon. However, there have been a surprisingly high number of lightning strikes during the monsoon this year.Four women were killed in a lightning strike in Kalaiya on 3 July while they were planting paddy in the fields. Four more were killed during a thunderstorm in Saptari district on 25 July.At least 62 people have been killed and 200 injured in lightning strikes so far this year. Of them, 32 have died and 81 have been injured in the three months since the onset of the monsoon.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/lightning-strikes-killing-people-in-Nepal,2940" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Forecast: more thunderstorms</a>, Om Astha RaiMeteorologist say such a high number of deaths from lightning strikes during the monsoon is unusual, and blame the increased intensity of storms on climate change. Nepal is the country with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lightning-kills-more-people-than-floods-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lightning-kills-more-people-than-floods-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601183868322000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVuqGirCOCYnMYF5klzx9rsNka8A">most annual lightning fatalities</a> – more than the whole of North America.Besides human deaths, lightnings also cause colossal damage to livestock, with Jumla district leading in sheep and cattle killed by lightning every year. But even by Jumla’s standards, this year has been particularly deadly.On 25 August, an unusual series of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lightning-kills-500-sheep-in-western-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lightning-kills-500-sheep-in-western-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601183868322000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXBRFgOdag7xf5fUvxzoCouokPkg">freak electric storms killed 500 sheep</a> in several pastures in the mountains near Patarasi of Jumla district. Gauri Budha alone lost 40 of his sheep when lightning struck a shed where they were sheltering from the rain at 1 pm.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109151116/636bb6479c7e80680e07bc50jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="442"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Budha is devastated because he was rearing the sheep to pay for the education of his two sons. "After our sons started school 10 years ago, we paid for their education by selling sheep,” he said. “Now the elder son is studying science and the other son will graduate from high school next year. How will I pay for their education now?”Budha and other farmers whose livestock were also killed applied to the village municipality for financial assistance, but it has been a month and they have not received anything yet. The farmers traditionally take the sheep up to high pasture to fatten them up for sale during Dasain, when each sheep can sell for up to Rs20,000. That was when the storm hit the ridge where they were grazing. Kali Bahadur Rawat, Ward Chairman of Patarasi rural Municpality says that the loss have been devastating for the farmers because they do not even have the ewes to rebuild the herd.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109151116/636bb64a9c7e80680e07bc51jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="691"><figcaption>Some 500 sheep were killed in a series of freak electric storms in Jumla on 25 August. Photos: Krishna Shah</figcaption></figure>"It will be difficult to replace them right away, which adds to the burden of the farmers whose income have already been hit by the pandemic,” Rawat says.Rawat understands the loss because he himself has suffered the death of his own livestock during a thunderstorm seven years ago which killed 20 of his sheep. Since he is now the elected Ward chair, he says he feels the people’s pain and will expedite compensation for Budha and other farmers.In Kathmandu, the head of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority’s chief Anil Pokharel says that the Ministry of Home Affairs gives Rs200,000 in compensation when a person is killed by lighting, or Rs100,000 if a family home is damaged in a landslide, but for livestock the understanding is that farmers should have been insured.Chitra Bahadur Shrestha of the National Farmers Organisation says: “It is unfair that farmers are not compensated for loss of livestock to lightning. And it is the job of the government to tell farmers that they have to insure their animals.”Lightning expert Shri Ram Sharma says other calamities like landslides, floods and earthquakes get all the attention in Nepal, and despite the loss of life and cost to farmers, lightning is often ignored. “It is seen as an act of god, and since most of those affected are poor villagers, there is no policy to compensate the farmers for the losses,” Sharma explained. “For a country that has such a high exposure to lightning risk, there should be more study, research and thunderstorm forecasting.”The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has installed a series of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601183868322000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMPrRuG_Pi3A90hMG-I7OSLPh7GQ">Doppler weather radars</a> in Surkhet, Hetauda and Udaypur to detect supercells and forecast major thunderstorm activity, but that information needs to get to farmers in time.

Abnormal rise in monsoon lightning in Nepal

Even in normal years Nepal has one of the highest fatality rates in the world from landslides and flashfloods. But even by that grim standard, 2020 has been particularly bad.[caption id="attachment_55055" align="alignleft" width="500"]<img class="wp-image-55055" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4a29c7e80680e07bbb3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="281"/> The latest landslide in Nepal’s Sindhupalchok district on 13 September took the total in the district in the past two months to 105, and the nationwide death toll this monsoon to 334 this monsoon. Photo: Bajir Singh BhandariDisaster management experts were just totaling the number of fatalities <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-deadliest-monsoon-in-recent-times/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF7-yj-fOh1i7o9M3C57jZxEdbG4g">in this deadly season</a>, when news came on 13 September of yet another massive landslide in Sindhupalchok district 60km northeast of Kathmandu that may have cost 31 more lives.This followed huge slips on 8 July and 14 August that had killed a total of 58 people in the same general area of Sindhupalchok near the Chinese border. The total 334 deaths from landslides in Nepal this year surpassed the total of 247 in 2014, of which <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2014/08/02/a-flood-of-floods/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2014/08/02/a-flood-of-floods/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEYDEXASLIJYv-ks5IFMsndwguMUg">145 were killed in just one massive slide in Jure</a> of the same district.[caption id="attachment_55054" align="alignnone" width="800"]<img class="wp-image-55054" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4a49c7e80680e07bbb4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="578"> The Lidi landslide in Sindhupalchok on 13 August shows how road building on fragile slopes already made unstable by the 2015 earthquakes compounded the disaster. Photo: RSSThe disasters this year has been compounded by the Covid-19 crisis, which had killed 360 people as of Tuesday. A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/heavy-monsoon-rains-forecast-for-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/heavy-monsoon-rains-forecast-for-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGwUc01omOxbfVw0zQdWZPABo4OxQ">heavier-than-usual pre-monsoon</a> had already saturated the soil in the mountains of Nepal when the main rains arrived in July.But what makes Sindhupalchok so prone to landslides and flash floods? Disaster management experts point to the after-effects of the two major 2015 earthquakes which killed 8,890 -- 40% of them in Sindhupalchok. They also blame the region’s fragile geology, as well as the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHx0G6y2fRo9smVf_mOr7H_eNGzNQ">haphazard digging of poorly-engineered rural roads</a> that destabilise the slopes even further.Five years later Sindhupalchok was still being rocked in Wednesday morning by 6M aftershock.[caption id="attachment_55050" align="alignright" width="400"]<img class="wp-image-55050" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4a79c7e80680e07bbb5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="400" height="225"> The flashflood on a river in Dhorpatan on the night of 2 September, swept away 38 people, only 14 bodies were recovered.To be sure, other districts have also been badly hit this year. A flashflood in Dhorpatan municipality of Baglung district killed 14 people on 4 September, and there has been much loss of life in Myagdi, Tanahu, and Jajarkot after cloudbursts.In a paper, geologist Basanta Raj Adhikari at the Institute of Engineering says that between 1972-2016 a total of 5,190 people lost their lives in 3,419 recorded landslide events – 490 of them in the past three years alone.Relative to its population, Nepal has the highest fatality rate from landslides in the world. The country is one of the most-densely populated mountain regions in the world, and being the youngest mountain range, the Himalaya are inherently unstable as well as being battered by heavy monsoon rains from June to September.“There is a lack of prioritisation and willingness to see the depth of this problem,” says Adhikari. “We found that rainfall-triggered landslides are more than twice as likely to occur within 100m of a road, than landslides generated by earthquakes.”Nepal has built nearly 60,000km of rural roads in the past three decades, and the alignments of most of them are determined by local politicians, and not designed by engineers. They are also poorly maintained, and do not have proper drainage.‘In tectonically active mountains such as the Himalayas, natural landslides play a fundamental role in the evolution of the landscape. But there is a clear anthropogenic influence in the occurrence of landslides in Nepal,’ writes <a href="https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF-m6VvYGI3fMkhr2DCyIDbTUpabg">David Petley</a>, a professor at the University of Sheffield in the UK, and a global expert on landslides.<img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-55044" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4a99c7e80680e07bbb6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="622" height="415"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-55045" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4ac9c7e80680e07bbb7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="622" height="415">VISIBLE FROM SPACE: The Bhote Kosi landslide in an image taken in 13 September 2013 shows smaller precursor landslips, and one taken on 18 September 2014 shows the size of the slide and the impounded lake on the Bhote Kosi. Photos: NASAIn 2017, Nepal imported 12,712 excavators, bulldozers and cranes, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/dozers-and-nepals-development/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/dozers-and-nepals-development/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHM3-0ucCAvMvnE87HaeG4vGWBEwA">a 30% increase</a> from the previous year. One of the importers, MAW Earthmovers, sold the most JCB equipment in South Asia in Nepal, and the second-highest amount globally.Anil Pokhrel, who heads the recently established <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NDRRMA/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.facebook.com/NDRRMA/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEBOGo5oX1e2jFDdxKOaGdaXkWhEQ">National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Authority (NDRRMA)</a> under the Ministry of Home Affairs, has been flying around the country with top politicians handing out relief packages to landslide victims. He says: “Everywhere we visited, local leaders blamed haphazard road construction for endangering their lives, but there is pressure from the communities themselves for road access.”There is also evidence that many local leaders are themselves contractors and own heavy earth-moving equipment which they are keen to rent out to themselves. These poorly built roads are often triggers for landslides.Watershed expert Madhukar Upadhya says: “It is not local individuals putting pressure to build roads, it is mostly a nexus between local leaders and contractors.”Geologists say that many villages in Nepal’s mountains are located along the path of old landslides, but people tend to forget quickly and start to grow crops on the debris field and soon new settlements rise on high-risk slopes.Recent landslides also show that many villagers get a false sense of security from the belief that planting trees above the village will protect them from landslides. While community forests have benefits, they are not a panacea.[caption id="attachment_55051" align="alignright" width="450"]<img class="wp-image-55051" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4ae9c7e80680e07bbb8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="450" height="207"> Forest cover does not necessarily prevent landslides as this photograph of Durlung of Parbat district in June shows. Nine people were killed in the disaster.“Heavy monsoon downpours cause mass failure of inherently unstable slopes on a large scale and at depths far below the root zone of trees,” says Upadhyay. “Forest cover, while desirable, plays little or no role in stopping such mass wasting. We covered slopes with forests but forgot about soil management, leading to more destructive landslides.”Indeed, photographs of many of the landslides this year show deep scars that start in forested slopes tumbling down to settlements below. In Durlung village of Parbat district, it was a densely forested slope that failed in June and swept away a settlement killing nine people. Forests also did not protect Jajarkot villages from monsoon cloudbursts.“Nobody would imagine that such a heavily-forested slope could have failed, we should remove this deeply-rooted belief and put other appropriate measures to control landslides,” said Pokhrel, who visited the area after the event.Landslide early warning systems (LEWS) do exist, and have saved lives in pilot projects in Nepal before. The solar-powered equipment can measure land deformation, soil moisture content on slopes and trigger a siren after it crosses a threshold.“This is not rocket science,” says Adhikari. “It can be installed easily, and it will not cost more than a minister’s chopper visit after each of these landslides.”[caption id="attachment_55053" align="alignnone" width="800"]<img class="wp-image-55053" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4b09c7e80680e07bbb9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="600"> Landslides scar a slope in Jajarkot after a cloudburst in July. Twelve people were killed.More than 90% of landslides in Nepal occur during the monsoon between June and September, peaking in July and August. Several <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167498711400036X" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S167498711400036X&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGLROni0PbrAIGDnL8j6kIykvhlXQ">studies</a> suggest the climate change is causing freak storms and more frequent cloudbursts in the Himalaya, increasing the vulnerability of people who live in the mountains.A version of this report appeared in <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.thethirdpole.net/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1600256399940000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHPHxfBDRpmSHSz5_oDfnrNjB0JlQ">thethirdpole.net. </a>

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