<img width="2211" height="1541" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1ea99c7e80680e0af421jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mcc-ball-in-nepals-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">$500 million American grant</a> to upgrade Nepal’s infrastructure appears at first glance to be delayed because of domestic politics. But the real reason seems to be Beijing’s opposition to the project, and its pressure on politicians not to implement the project.Sources say the Chinese government has been showing unusual interest in the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project as Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba prepares to present it for approval by the winter session of Parliament, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">despite opposition from coalition partners</a>.On 22 December, Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqi made a hasty trip to the Balkot residence of former prime minister KP Oli of the opposition UML. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oli and Deuba back the American project</a>, and some see this meeting of minds on the MCC even <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/just-do-it/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">triggering a breakup of the governing coalition</a>.On 13 December, Vice Minister Chen Zhou of the International Department of the Communist Party of China (CPC) held a video conference with the newly-elected UML General Secretary Shankar Pokharel.Pokharel is said to have assured Zhou that his party would not allow activities that could damage Sino-Nepal relations. The UML’s Bishnu Rijal confirmed that Zhou’s call was about the MCC, but added ambiguously: “He must have had queries about development projects that China’s neighbouring country is undertaking.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/missing-links-in-nepals-mcc-debate/">Missing links in Nepal’s MCC debate</a>, Jeevan R Sharma and David SeddonZhou had a similar chat with Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialists who is also reported to have reiterated that he opposed anti-China activity in Nepal. Nepal has publicly stated he would reject the MCC if it could affect ties with neighbouring countries. CPC officials also held virtual meetings with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre, who has not hidden his opposition to the MCC.A government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “There is no doubt that China does not want the MCC to go ahead, it has already conveyed as much to the top political leadership.”Speaker Agni Prasad Sapkota of the Maoist Centre, who is close to Beijing, has said the MCC would not move forward under his watch. His predecessor Krishna Bahadur Mahara publicly admitted to stopping MCC ratification because it was anti-Chinese.“China has already sent the message that it will not sit idly if the development activities in Nepal undermine its interests here,” Nepal’s former ambassador in Beijing Mahendra Bahadur Pandey told Nepali Times. “China has been concerned about the MCC from the very beginning, and views it with suspicion.”<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-damned-if-we-do-damned-if-we-dont/">MCC: damned if we do, damned if we don’t</a>, Nepali TimesChina’s objection to the MCC is most noticeably expressed through op-eds. Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at the Renmin University, in one interview with <a href="http://nepalkhabar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://nepalkhabar.com&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1640329948769000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1-5zGkO7r9layvLRxbBfav">nepalkhabar.com</a> last October called the MCC ‘an American ploy’.Diplomatic affairs expert Geja Sharma Wagle says that besides the Americans, Nepal needs to balance the interests of its neighbours India and China as well. He says, “It is in Nepal’s best interest to implement both the American MCC and Chinese BRI projects based on our national needs.”Many analysts see the MCC as America’s response to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Beijing Belt-Road Initiative (BRI) </a>which promotes connectivity and infrastructure in order to benefit China’s influence and trade in the region.Apart from Dahal’s CPN (Maoist Centre) and Nepal’s CPN (Unified Socialist), other coalition members Janata Samajwadi Party and Rastriya Janamorcha are also against the American grant. Even the Hindu-Right Rastriya Prajatantra Party recently spoke against it. Deuba called an all-party meeting this week to discuss the MCC, but Oli did not show up. Representatives of other parties reiterated their opposition to the compact in its present form. Jhala Nath Khanal of Unified Socialists was once more named to a committee to further study the MCC agreement.Dahal and Nepal used KP Oli’s support for the MCC against him in a<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> bitter power struggle</a> that did not just split the Nepal Communist Party, but also the UML. They were so successful in generating public opinion against the MCC, saying it was an American strategy against China, that they find it difficult to back it now, especially with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-eyes-on-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">elections a year away</a>.  Dahal is also concerned about his Maoist Centre general convention.At the height of political infighting last year, Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi lobbied unsuccessfully to keep Nepal’s communists united. Now that KP Oli is in the opposition, he is not as openly pro-MCC, but sees it as a weapon to get back at Deuba and Dahal by splitting their coalition — even if it means forging an alliance with the NC.Nepal signed the MCC agreement in Washington in 2017 when Deuba led a similar NC-Maoist coalition. The US has repeatedly said that the project is a grant that Nepal qualified for, and has no strings attached. MCC Vice President Fatima Sumar and US Deputy Secretary of State Donald Lu <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-stuck-between-rock-and-hard-place/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">visited Nepal recently</a>, and reportedly gave Deuba an ultimatum to have Parliament ratification by the end of this year. <img width="1142" height="868" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1eac9c7e80680e0af422jpeg.jpg" alt="">Experts say the MCC is important to expand Nepal’s power grid into the future with 400kVA transmission lines that can also allow Nepal to export more surplus electricity to India. Nepal will be generating 4,500MW of hydroelectricity in the next three years, and over 12,000MW by 2030, and much of it risks being wasted if it cannot be supplied to load centres. In monetary terms, Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-precious-electricity-going-waste/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">power producers could lose</a> at least Rs142 billion annually. Which is why energy experts say Nepal should start work immediately on transmission lines even if the MCC does not go ahead.Although most of the $500 million project is for upgrading transmission lines, it will also improve highway connectivity in central Nepal to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/generating-electricity-and-cash-for-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">boost economic growth</a>.  Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-cost-of-no-mcc/">The cost of no MCC</a>, Nepali Times

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China lobbying against MCC

<figure><img width="640" height="893" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07139c7e80680e0a5f9cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>At 75, Sher Bahadur Deuba is Nepal’s prime minister for the fifth time in 26 years -- joining the ranks of other serial prime ministers Surya Bahadur Thapa and Girija Prasad Koirala. That fact alone shows that the structural defects in Nepali politics remain intact, so politicians can keep returning to power without learning from, and atoning to, past mistakes.Deuba first became prime minister of a coalition government under similar circumstances in 1995 after the Supreme Court overturned the decision to dissolve Parliament by Manmohan Adhikari, who was leading a minority UML government.Since then, Deuba has led the country through key moments in Nepal’s history: during King Birendra’s reign, after King Gyanendra’s coup, in interim governments after the peace accord in 2006, and during the first federal elections in 2017 under the new Constitution.But Deuba’s long political career is replete with mis-steps and controversy.He must have had a sense of déjà vu as he challenged K P Oli’s leadership, since he himself dissolved Parliament during his second term in 2002, after which King Gyanendra sacked him for being ‘incompetent’.Deuba was then dismissed by his Nepali Congress (NC), which led him to found a breakaway faction. The same kind of power struggle that brought down the UML also plagued his party: first with GP Koirala and currently with Ram Chandra Paudel as the NC prepares for its convention.Deuba was in power when he waged war on the Maoists, who had placed a bounty, dead or alive, on his head. The fact that he now shares power with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre proves the adage that there are no permanent enemies in politics.In 2005, after his third tenure, Deuba was arrested and sentenced to two years in prison for corruption, but was released after the court dismissed the case.After the 2017 election, Deuba handed over prime ministership to K P Oli. But even while Oli fought off the leadership challenge from the Dahal-Nepal combine, Deuba did not join them till earlier this year. It must have been Deuba’s destiny to bookend Oli’s term as Prime Minister and succeed him.Deuba’s fifth term is already off to a shaky start, and the choice of Pampha Bhusal and Janardan Sharma from the Maoist Centre in powerful ministries shows the kind compromises he has made with Dahal.Deuba also has a month to face a floor test in the House. If he can get 136 votes out of 271 seats, he can govern till elections in 2023. If he cannot, then Nepal has to go for early elections in six months. In May, the anti-Oli alliance under Deuba’s leadership had the support of 149 lawmakers — 61 from his own NC, 49 from the MC, 23 members of the UML Nepal faction, and 12 from the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the JSP. The 23 votes of the Nepal faction will be crucial for Deuba, and some Nepal loyalists know that the UML will split if they vote for Deuba. But party insiders say there is now too much bad blood for Oli to offer Nepal the olive branch.Most Nepalis, while glad that the uncertainty in the UML has ended, are dismayed that the parties could find no one more promising than Deuba to lead the country. Deuba’s first task is to bring his disparate Cabinet members to make up for time that the Oli government squandered in dealing with the Covid-19 health and economic emergency, obtain vaccines to prevent a third wave, and deal with a disastrous monsoon season.They do not have high hopes.

Shristi Karki

Deuba.5

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131116/636cec219c7e80680e09ad49jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>Nepal's prolonged political deadlock has not just affected the country’s response to Covid-19, it has also delayed the implementation of an American-aided project to upgrade Nepal’s electricity transmission grid.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">controversial</a> Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project is the biggest single bilateral grant for a specific project in Nepal by a foreign country, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has become the focus of an intense power struggle </a>rival parties, and is tangled in regional and global geopolitics.A big part of the $500 million MCC grant is ear-marked for the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400KVa transmission line which will eventually evacuate electricity generated from existing and new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hydropower plants</a> on the Budi Gandaki, Trisuli, Kali Gandaki, Marsyangdi, Kosi, and Tamakosi corridors, and link it to Gorakhpur in India. A smaller component of the project will upgrade arterial highways. The Nepal government is putting up another $130 million as a counterpart fund.However, critics in Nepal see the MCC as America’s strategic counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">comment by US Under Secretary of State David J Ranz</a> in 2019 that the MCC was indeed a part of the US <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>added fuel to the fire.Sandwiched between India and China, Nepal was already in a strategic tight spot, but a recent flare-up in Sino-Indian tension and US-China rivalry have caught Nepal in the crossfire. In addition, opponents of Prime Minister K P Oli have weaponised the MCC and used the project to weaken his position.But Nepal’s energy planners say that even if the MCC is delayed or cancelled, the country will have to find alternatives to build the transmission lines.“We cannot afford this uncertainty we must have a Plan B in place, otherwise we will face a huge problem. There will be all this electricity being generated in the next few years, but no way to take it to consumers,” says Hitendra Dev Shakya, who heads the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). “We have to build the transmission lines with or without American aid.”The reason behind the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transmission line being prioritised</a> is to send the electricity produced from throughout Nepal, and any future monsoon surplus can then be exported to India and the same lines can be used to import power in winter if required.New projects with a generation capacity of 330MW are under construction on the Bhote Kosi in Rasuwa and Nuwakot. A further 500MW will be generated from other hydropower schemes whose construction was delayed due to the pandemic.New 220KVa transmission lines are ready to bring that electricity to Kathmandu Valley, but they only have the capacity to carry the new load from projects now under construction. But the NEA has already made Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to buy about 6,000MW of electricity from private operators, and the distribution of that power will depend on the MCC-funded distribution system. The NEA says it urgently needs another transmission link to bring power from plants on the Tama Kosi to Kathmandu and to eastern Nepal via Hetauda.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131116/636cec259c7e80680e09ad4ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="880" height="840"><a href="https://www.mcc.gov/where-we-work/country/nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The MCC</a> was set up in 2004 by the US Congress during the George W Bush presidency to help developing nations reduce poverty through financial aid. Since then, as Sino-US tensions grew it has taken on a strategic dimension as the two powers compete for global connectivity. The $500 million MCC grant to Nepal was sanctioned in 2017 to improve Nepal’s energy and road infrastructure.Nepal was suffering 18 hours of power cuts a day when the agreement was signed, and after much deliberation, Nepal’s planners, politicians and bureaucrats decided that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transmission lines were the most urgently needed</a> since powerplants were already under construction. The generated electricity need to be taken to load centres, this would increase the renewable component of Nepal’s energy mix by replacing imported petroleum, and finally, to export any surplus to India.Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Millennium Challenge Authority Nepal (MCA-Nepal)</a> has been set up and the office has already finalised the design of the 315km transmission line of 400KVa capacity with three new sub-stations. But the delay in Parliament’s ratification of the project means it cannot issue tender bids, and this will put 2,600MW of electricity at risk of being wasted in eh coming two years.<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17959" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Khadga Bahadur Bista</a>, the CEO of MCA-Nepal estimates about it takes up to five months to select a contractor even if the project is ratified by Parliament, and after that, it will take another nine months to start construction.“We are all set to kick start this project and are ready to call for international tender bids, but due to it still pending in the Parliament we have not been able to make progress,” Bista told Nepali Times. Just Do ItThe NEA says that Nepal is now generating 1,400MW of electricity, and this is set to more than triple in the next three years to 5,000MW, with the largest hydropower project so far in Nepal, the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi coming on stream in July, if it is not delayed again by the lockdown.Other hydroelectricity projects totalling 2,500MW are planned are in the financial negotiations stage, they are set to come into operation by 2026.But the more urgent need is power transmission to accommodate the new projects in the next three years as Nepal struggles to keep up with demand. The current peak demand is 1,150MW, which drops to 700MW at night. Generation capacity also fluctuates during the monsoon and dry season between surplus and scarcity because most of the hydro projects are of the run-of-river type without large reservoirs.To avoid electricity from going to waste during the monsoon, Nepal can export the surplus power to India, and import in winter. The agreements are in place with India to facilitate power trade, but current transmission lines cannot bear future load. The MCC-funded transmission lines are also required for domestic distribution and grid management.The present Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur crossborder transmission line connects India and Nepal but can only handle 1,000MW each way, but practically it can only bear 800MW. This means by late next year, Nepal’s new surplus monsoon electricity is sure to go waste.This will not just be a wasted opportunity for Nepal to reduce its trade imbalance and partly pay for its winter power import from India, but also affect private hydropower investors in Nepal. This scenario can be avoided if the proposed 400KVa Butwal-Gorakhpur transmission line.The catch here is that the NEA has signed an understanding with the private hydropower investors that it will buy electricity they generate only if the surplus can be exported to India. Any delay in building the Butwal-Gorakhpur transmission line to India, therefore would ultimately impact Nepal’s own private power producers. This put their investment at risk, affect the banking sector, and ultimately Nepal’s overall economy.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131116/636cec279c7e80680e09ad4bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="946" height="526"><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>Critics of the MCC have pointed out that exporting power to India is not a priority, and Nepal should use power from the new projects to foster value-added energy-intensive industries in Nepal itself. However, the MCC transmission lines will be needed even to feed power within the country.In addition, at the rate power demand is rising in Nepal, even if 5,000MW is generated in the monsoon, the capacity of the run-of-river schemes will drop to one-third in the dry season – as it has done during this year’s winter drought. The higher capacity transmission lines are therefore required to import power from India until such time as Nepal’s generation capacity in winter is augmented with storage projects like Budi Gandaki.NEA’s Shakya says the MCC project will form a backbone of Nepal’s electricity grid, and by linking it to the Indian grid it will be more robust and flexible, allowing load sharing and management. The MCC-funded transmission lines are also critical for meeting Kathmandu Valley’s future demand growth, to transfer power generated in eastern Nepal to the western half of the country during the monsoon, and from west to east in the winter.Fortunately, electricity supply and demand in Nepal and India complement each other. In summer, when demand rises in India Nepal has surplus power, and in winter when Nepal’s supply cannot meet demand, it can import from India.The same is true within Nepal. There is a nearly one month lag between the time the monsoon arrives in eastern Nepal in early June, and by the time it starts raining heavily in western Nepal in mid-July. This means projects in eastern Nepal are already operating at full capacity, and the surplus electricity can be sent to western Nepal where it is still dry – if there was the necessary east-west transmission system.“The risk that we will have to face in the coming years if this project does not materialise will be unimaginable,” Shakya warns. “If these transmission lines are not built through the MCC grant, we have to immediately start moving towards an alternative.”Good connectivityNepal signed the MCC Compact Agreement in September 2017 which allowed the MCC Board in Washington to release the grant amount of $500 million (Rs59 billion) for the development of Nepal’s electricity transmission line and road infrastructure. But everything has been stuck for more than a year because a provision in the agreement that required ratification by Parliament.The Americans insisted on this clause so that the project would be valid no matter which government was in power in Nepal, but that is also the reason that the MCC has become a punching bag for those against Prime Minister Oli—even though his predecessors in other parties opposing the project were in government when the agreement was signed. The NC leadership which is now in the opposition, as well as NCP leaders that included the Maoist Centre and UML, who are vehemently getting the MCC scrapped today were involved in approving and planning the project.Foreign affairs experts explain that the MCC has been caught up in domestic oneupmanship between Nepal’s leaders and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">international geopolitics</a>. Nepal’s politicians have a tendency to be north-facing or south-facing, or both, and are generally not able to work together for the national interest. This is made worse by the absence of trust, and a lack of dignity.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110131116/636cec2a9c7e80680e09ad4cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="750" height="1000"><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>The US side has informed the government that the MCC grant is not open-ended and the deadline is looming. However, the MCC has also suffered collateral damage as Prime Minister Oli dissolved the Lower House on 20 December, and then ended the winter session on 19 April. The Special Session has been called for 10 May as Prime Minister Oli seeks a confidence vote. If he loses, the country will go for early elections in six month’s time. The budget session of the House could pass the MCC, but with the intense political polarisation, it will not be easy.Despite the agreement being signed by both governments, therefore, it is languishing because of Nepal’s internal dynamics. The main objection from the detractors is that it is a part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States, and that several provisions of the agreement undermine the sovereignty of Nepal.Bhim Rawal, a staunch anti-Oli UML leader, as well as Pushpa Kamal Dahal and other Maoist Centre leaders are against the agreement being ratified by Parliament, more because of their opposition to a project Oli is pushing than other reasons. A committee constituted under the convener of UML leader Jhalanath Khanal and others had recommended last year that the agreement be passed with amendments.Though the project has still not got off the ground, it has already spent about $3 million for preparations, which the US and Nepal government have shared half-half. It was used for the mapping and design of the transmission lines, the pylons, sub-stations, and preparing tender documents.The EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report of the overall project is in the final stages. The task of acquiring the land under the project in Ratmate of Nuwakot, where the sub-station will be constructed is nearing completion. The Nepal government has allocated Rs10.3 billion this fiscal year for MCC, but till mid-December only Rs140 million had been spent.

Power politics delays MCC in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84009c7e80680e06776cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>Nepal's prolonged political deadlock has not just affected the country’s response to Covid-19, it has also delayed the implementation of an American-aided project to upgrade Nepal’s electricity transmission grid.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">controversial</a> Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project is the biggest single bilateral grant for a specific project in Nepal by a foreign country, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">has become the focus of an intense power struggle </a>rival parties, and is tangled in regional and global geopolitics.A big part of the $500 million MCC grant is ear-marked for the Kathmandu-Hetauda-Butwal 400KVa transmission line which will eventually evacuate electricity generated from existing and new <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hydropower plants</a> on the Budi Gandaki, Trisuli, Kali Gandaki, Marsyangdi, Kosi, and Tamakosi corridors, and link it to Gorakhpur in India. A smaller component of the project will upgrade arterial highways. The Nepal government is putting up another $130 million as a counterpart fund.However, critics in Nepal see the MCC as America’s strategic counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">comment by US Under Secretary of State David J Ranz</a> in 2019 that the MCC was indeed a part of the US <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>added fuel to the fire.Sandwiched between India and China, Nepal was already in a strategic tight spot, but a recent flare-up in Sino-Indian tension and US-China rivalry have caught Nepal in the crossfire. In addition, opponents of Prime Minister K P Oli have weaponised the MCC and used the project to weaken his position.But Nepal’s energy planners say that even if the MCC is delayed or cancelled, the country will have to find alternatives to build the transmission lines.“We cannot afford this uncertainty we must have a Plan B in place, otherwise we will face a huge problem. There will be all this electricity being generated in the next few years, but no way to take it to consumers,” says Hitendra Dev Shakya, who heads the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). “We have to build the transmission lines with or without American aid.”The reason behind the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transmission line being prioritised</a> is to send the electricity produced from throughout Nepal, and any future monsoon surplus can then be exported to India and the same lines can be used to import power in winter if required.New projects with a generation capacity of 330MW are under construction on the Bhote Kosi in Rasuwa and Nuwakot. A further 500MW will be generated from other hydropower schemes whose construction was delayed due to the pandemic.New 220KVa transmission lines are ready to bring that electricity to Kathmandu Valley, but they only have the capacity to carry the new load from projects now under construction. But the NEA has already made Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) to buy about 6,000MW of electricity from private operators, and the distribution of that power will depend on the MCC-funded distribution system. The NEA says it urgently needs another transmission link to bring power from plants on the Tama Kosi to Kathmandu and to eastern Nepal via Hetauda.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84039c7e80680e06776djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="880" height="840"><a href="https://www.mcc.gov/where-we-work/country/nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The MCC</a> was set up in 2004 by the US Congress during the George W Bush presidency to help developing nations reduce poverty through financial aid. Since then, as Sino-US tensions grew it has taken on a strategic dimension as the two powers compete for global connectivity. The $500 million MCC grant to Nepal was sanctioned in 2017 to improve Nepal’s energy and road infrastructure.Nepal was suffering 18 hours of power cuts a day when the agreement was signed, and after much deliberation, Nepal’s planners, politicians and bureaucrats decided that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">transmission lines were the most urgently needed</a> since powerplants were already under construction. The generated electricity need to be taken to load centres, this would increase the renewable component of Nepal’s energy mix by replacing imported petroleum, and finally, to export any surplus to India.Meanwhile, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Millennium Challenge Authority Nepal (MCA-Nepal)</a> has been set up and the office has already finalised the design of the 315km transmission line of 400KVa capacity with three new sub-stations. But the delay in Parliament’s ratification of the project means it cannot issue tender bids, and this will put 2,600MW of electricity at risk of being wasted in eh coming two years.<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=17959" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Khadga Bahadur Bista</a>, the CEO of MCA-Nepal estimates about it takes up to five months to select a contractor even if the project is ratified by Parliament, and after that, it will take another nine months to start construction.“We are all set to kick start this project and are ready to call for international tender bids, but due to it still pending in the Parliament we have not been able to make progress,” Bista told Nepali Times. Just Do ItThe NEA says that Nepal is now generating 1,400MW of electricity, and this is set to more than triple in the next three years to 5,000MW, with the largest hydropower project so far in Nepal, the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi coming on stream in July, if it is not delayed again by the lockdown.Other hydroelectricity projects totalling 2,500MW are planned are in the financial negotiations stage, they are set to come into operation by 2026.But the more urgent need is power transmission to accommodate the new projects in the next three years as Nepal struggles to keep up with demand. The current peak demand is 1,150MW, which drops to 700MW at night. Generation capacity also fluctuates during the monsoon and dry season between surplus and scarcity because most of the hydro projects are of the run-of-river type without large reservoirs.To avoid electricity from going to waste during the monsoon, Nepal can export the surplus power to India, and import in winter. The agreements are in place with India to facilitate power trade, but current transmission lines cannot bear future load. The MCC-funded transmission lines are also required for domestic distribution and grid management.The present Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur crossborder transmission line connects India and Nepal but can only handle 1,000MW each way, but practically it can only bear 800MW. This means by late next year, Nepal’s new surplus monsoon electricity is sure to go waste.This will not just be a wasted opportunity for Nepal to reduce its trade imbalance and partly pay for its winter power import from India, but also affect private hydropower investors in Nepal. This scenario can be avoided if the proposed 400KVa Butwal-Gorakhpur transmission line.The catch here is that the NEA has signed an understanding with the private hydropower investors that it will buy electricity they generate only if the surplus can be exported to India. Any delay in building the Butwal-Gorakhpur transmission line to India, therefore would ultimately impact Nepal’s own private power producers. This put their investment at risk, affect the banking sector, and ultimately Nepal’s overall economy.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84069c7e80680e06776ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="946" height="526"><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>Critics of the MCC have pointed out that exporting power to India is not a priority, and Nepal should use power from the new projects to foster value-added energy-intensive industries in Nepal itself. However, the MCC transmission lines will be needed even to feed power within the country.In addition, at the rate power demand is rising in Nepal, even if 5,000MW is generated in the monsoon, the capacity of the run-of-river schemes will drop to one-third in the dry season – as it has done during this year’s winter drought. The higher capacity transmission lines are therefore required to import power from India until such time as Nepal’s generation capacity in winter is augmented with storage projects like Budi Gandaki.NEA’s Shakya says the MCC project will form a backbone of Nepal’s electricity grid, and by linking it to the Indian grid it will be more robust and flexible, allowing load sharing and management. The MCC-funded transmission lines are also critical for meeting Kathmandu Valley’s future demand growth, to transfer power generated in eastern Nepal to the western half of the country during the monsoon, and from west to east in the winter.Fortunately, electricity supply and demand in Nepal and India complement each other. In summer, when demand rises in India Nepal has surplus power, and in winter when Nepal’s supply cannot meet demand, it can import from India.The same is true within Nepal. There is a nearly one month lag between the time the monsoon arrives in eastern Nepal in early June, and by the time it starts raining heavily in western Nepal in mid-July. This means projects in eastern Nepal are already operating at full capacity, and the surplus electricity can be sent to western Nepal where it is still dry – if there was the necessary east-west transmission system.“The risk that we will have to face in the coming years if this project does not materialise will be unimaginable,” Shakya warns. “If these transmission lines are not built through the MCC grant, we have to immediately start moving towards an alternative.”Good connectivityNepal signed the MCC Compact Agreement in September 2017 which allowed the MCC Board in Washington to release the grant amount of $500 million (Rs59 billion) for the development of Nepal’s electricity transmission line and road infrastructure. But everything has been stuck for more than a year because a provision in the agreement that required ratification by Parliament.The Americans insisted on this clause so that the project would be valid no matter which government was in power in Nepal, but that is also the reason that the MCC has become a punching bag for those against Prime Minister Oli—even though his predecessors in other parties opposing the project were in government when the agreement was signed. The NC leadership which is now in the opposition, as well as NCP leaders that included the Maoist Centre and UML, who are vehemently getting the MCC scrapped today were involved in approving and planning the project.Foreign affairs experts explain that the MCC has been caught up in domestic oneupmanship between Nepal’s leaders and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">international geopolitics</a>. Nepal’s politicians have a tendency to be north-facing or south-facing, or both, and are generally not able to work together for the national interest. This is made worse by the absence of trust, and a lack of dignity.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109111140/636b84089c7e80680e06776fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="750" height="1000"><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>The US side has informed the government that the MCC grant is not open-ended and the deadline is looming. However, the MCC has also suffered collateral damage as Prime Minister Oli dissolved the Lower House on 20 December, and then ended the winter session on 19 April. The Special Session has been called for 10 May as Prime Minister Oli seeks a confidence vote. If he loses, the country will go for early elections in six month’s time. The budget session of the House could pass the MCC, but with the intense political polarisation, it will not be easy.Despite the agreement being signed by both governments, therefore, it is languishing because of Nepal’s internal dynamics. The main objection from the detractors is that it is a part of the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States, and that several provisions of the agreement undermine the sovereignty of Nepal.Bhim Rawal, a staunch anti-Oli UML leader, as well as Pushpa Kamal Dahal and other Maoist Centre leaders are against the agreement being ratified by Parliament, more because of their opposition to a project Oli is pushing than other reasons. A committee constituted under the convener of UML leader Jhalanath Khanal and others had recommended last year that the agreement be passed with amendments.Though the project has still not got off the ground, it has already spent about $3 million for preparations, which the US and Nepal government have shared half-half. It was used for the mapping and design of the transmission lines, the pylons, sub-stations, and preparing tender documents.The EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report of the overall project is in the final stages. The task of acquiring the land under the project in Ratmate of Nuwakot, where the sub-station will be constructed is nearing completion. The Nepal government has allocated Rs10.3 billion this fiscal year for MCC, but till mid-December only Rs140 million had been spent.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4829c7e80680e0966b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="369"/><figcaption>Residents of the Musahar settlement in Baluwa Tol of Siraha's Dhangadhimai Municipality.</figcaption></figure>The fervour of the local elections three years ago had taken sway over the eight districts of Province 2. Sangihya Samajbadi Party and Rastriya Janata Party had eclipsed the dominant Nepali Congress and Communist forces, during the polls.Out of the 136 local constituencies in the province, the two Tarai-based parties had claimed 51 of them, Rastriya Janata Party had turned victorious in 14 while the Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum had swept 24 municipalities.The upward trend of supporting the Madhesh-based parties continued into the election for the House of Representatives as well as the provincial assembly elections. Of the 32 constituencies contested, the parties had won more than half, claiming 19 seats. Similarly, they won 55 of the 107 seats in the provincial election.But three years after the elections, the people of Province 2 feel let down and have started to lose faith in the home-grown parties, as they have failed to perform and deliver.The parties representing the Tarai have always blamed the centre for not taking their issues seriously, and for a sluggish development of the region.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4849c7e80680e0966b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="750" height="346"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The Madhesh-based parties had rejected the constitution because their demands had not been met. India had thrown its weight behind the bloc, imposing a border blockade on Nepal that lasted for six months.Tarai has seen sporadic protests calling for the rights of the Madheshi communities. During the different political movements that took place after the peace process, 124 people lost their lives.Nepali Congress General Convention representative, Bajrang Nepali says that compared to the older established parties, the Tarai-based parties have been more successful within a short period, with the foundation laid by a series of movements.But it is only during the times of demonstrations and elections that the people matter to the politicians, locals complain.“When the polls arrive, politicians come with the promise of land and shelter,” says Shreeram Sada of Dhangadhi Municipality, Siraha. “It’s been three years since the elections took place, they haven’t fulfilled their promises. The wells are drying up, water is scarce.”Mahadev Saha, who has a PhD in Political History of Nepal and is currently the Head of Softech College based in Lahan, says that the people had participated in the Madhesh movements with certain aspirations, but that they’re frustrated over how things have turned out.“There were some legitimate interests of the Madhesh that have not been provided in the Constitution. The desires of Madhesis have not been addressed in any way,” he says.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4859c7e80680e0966b5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="287" height="260"><figcaption>Mahadev Saha, PhD</figcaption></figure>Saha adds that Tarai-based parties had an opportunity to prove themselves, but they squandered it, and the corruption and red tape at the Singha Darbar have trickled down to the provincial governments.The leaders of the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP)— formed after major Madhesh alliances, Samajbadi Party and Rastriya Janata Party merged—concede that they have not been able to meet the people’s aspirations.JSP’s Central Committee Member Manish Suman admits that even though his party was elected to power, the problems of the people have remained intact.“In the past, when Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Girija Prasad Koirala, Lokendra Bahadur Chand, Surya Bahadur Thapa or KP Oli was Prime Minister, there was no impact in the rural areas. The context is the same even today when we are in the government,” says Suman. “There’s no point berating the others. The onus was upon us to live up to the commitments made to the people.”About one year from now, the local level elections are due and in just 12 months, the provincial and federal parliament elections are to be held.It is too early to predict which party will dominate in the upcoming polls in Province 2. But cadres and intellectual groups are steeped in political conversations.While JSP is seen as a unified bloc representing the Tarai by Kathmandu, wandering through the streets of Province 2, one is likely to observe a different picture. Even though the two parties did merge, locally, they continue to operate as two different parties, much like the Nepal Communist Party, which has now disintegrated.Suman agrees that even though an official merger has happened, the party is yet to become one ‘spiritually’. Executive member of JSP, Shailesh Chaudhary echoes similar thoughts. The unified party continues to experience polarisation over the details of forming a federal government.In the past elections, the Tarai-based parties raising Madhesh-centric issues were a draw for young voters. But unable to perform, the parities now suffer from an erosion of public trust.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4879c7e80680e0966b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">According to political analyst, Mahadev Saha, despite leading the provincial government, the parties have failed to deliver the people’s mandate. He alleges their politics have been confined to supporting allies and gaining personal benefits.Journalist Chandra Kishore, from Birganj says that Madhesh-based parties have been unable to maintain their rapport with the public and that the centre had cashed on it. “The leaders of JSP themselves have become redundant. They have ideological conflict, which is unattractive to the public.”Former Treasurer of Federation of Nepali Journalists, Sheetal Sah agrees. “The political parties within JSP did not win the election because they were pro-active, it was just that the political atmosphere was in their favour. And now that they haven’t delivered on their commitment, they have become unpopular.”It is still too early to analyse how the rift within the UML will potentially impact the Madhesh-centric parties. Critics of PM Oli have pointed out in the past that he had lost his hold over Tarai because of his prejudices during the Madhesh movement.“Oli is making an effort to revive his image in Madhesh,” says Gangalal Yadav of Siraha. The Oli-led UML faction is wooing local leaders and thinkers from other parties into their fold, who have the potential to lure the voters.Other than that, the construction of postal roads, connecting the highways to the district headquarters, and the Kosi-Marine Diversion Irrigation Project are some of Oli’s attempts to influence development in the Tarai.Before 2007, Province 2 was a Nepali Congress (NC) stronghold. With the rise of the Tarai-centric parties, the NC fortress was stormed and influential leaders from Madhesh, like Mahantha Thakur, JP Gupta, Sharat Singh Bhandari quit Congress to join the regional parties, which chipped away at the Nepali Congress ‘vote bank’.With the lure of the Madhesh-based parties waning, is NC likely to revive its influence once more? The perspectives remain divided.JSP Executive Member Shailesh Chaudhary views the internal tussle within NC as the fundamental problem even though it could be an alternative to JSP. He says, “People do not have anger towards [Nepali] Congress. The internal conflict and groupism are what is concerning.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce48a9c7e80680e0966b7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="541" height="476"><figcaption>Bajrang Nepali</figcaption></figure>However, NC leaders themselves do not appear confident. NC leader of Jaleshwor Mahottari, Bajrang Nepali says that despite voters turning towards NC, the party has no mechanism to attract the new generation, the group that forms the biggest chunk of voters.“People are positive towards [Nepali] Congress, but have they been able to attract the new generation? [Nepali] Congress has to find a way out to resolve this,” says Nepali.Journalist Chandra Kishore says self-sabotage is nothing new within the party, “Congress is a threat to itself,” he says, adding that Prime Minister Oli will attempt every possible way to win over the Madhesh vote bank.“The government has already started to deploy the state mechanisms to Madhesh, its impact might be reflected in the election,” he adds.Nepali Congress may, however, benefit from the fissures within the Communists. “If the Communist had not broken up, they would have been a tough competition for Nepali Congress. The fraction within the Communists has made them vulnerable, and [Nepali] Congress will benefit from it,” says Sah.And there are others hoping to reap benefit from the situation. CK Raut had won nationwide popularity, and a strong backing in the Tarai before signing a deal with the Oli government in March 2020 to honour Nepal’s sovereignty. He has been busy building his political influence in the region since, it will be interesting to see how his presence will tip the voting scales.But political analysts say Raut might not be able to garner much attention given the relatively new presence of his party. “Raut was capturing the attention of the youth who were losing interest in the Madhesh-based parties,” Sah says. “ But after he signed the pact with the government against his secessionist movement, he might have lost much of his fan-following in Madhesh.”

The Politics of Province 2

<img width="800" height="436" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce44d9c7e80680e0966a0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>There are just so many layers of party and factional interests, alliances and dalliances, marriages of convenience and messy divorces, egos, ambitions, and personal vendetta involved, that it is difficult to delve beyond daily headlines about who stabbed whom in the back today.We must start with the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/">central protagonist</a>, the man everyone seems to love to hate, Prime Minister K P Oli. He has proved all pundits wrong by surviving both medically and politically. This does not look like a man who has two kidney transplants—he appears stronger than ever.  He has outlasted <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/i-had-no-other-option-pm-oli/">relentless pressure</a> from the combined strength of rivals within the NCP and a constant media broadside, to unseat him. When cornered, he has used nationalism,  divided and ruled, used and discarded former comrades, and even dissolved the House and threatened elections to get his way.Oli is wily, but a statesman he is not. Had he been, he would have found other ways than <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/">full-frontal attacks on rivals</a>, concentrating instead on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/its-broke-fix-it/">providing leadership</a> on issues that really matter to Nepalis – <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-state-of-disillusionment/">jobs, inflation, education, health and Covid impact</a>. He has spent all his time and energy running circles around <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/">Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal.</a>If anyone wanted to dismantle Nepal’s Communist movement, no one would have done a better job than Prime Minister Oli. He <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unity-with-the-maoists-did-not-work-out/">cracked open the NCP,</a> then he got to work on his own UML, weeding out the disgruntled Nepal faction. Oli might have been seeking revenge on Nepal, but by sidelining him, he has effectively splintered the UML as well.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/efforts-to-cobble-back-the-uml/">Efforts to cobble back the UML</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel <img width="640" height="343" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce44f9c7e80680e0966a1jpeg.jpg" alt="">Oli has become such a central figure that as factions of the four main parties jostle to find coalition partnerships, they are all divided depending on whether they support the prime minister or not. First, his UML itself is divided, with the Nepal faction behaving like an opposition party. Oli’s strategy now is to woo away Nepal loyalists like Jhalnath Khanal, whom President Bidya Devi Bhandari went to meet at his home last week.The Maoist Centre has also lost its senior comrades to Oli’s Cabinet: Ram Bahadur Thapa, Top Bahadur Ryamajhi and others. The party removed them from MP-hood on Tuesday, but cannot seem to decide what to do next. A Nepali Congress (NC) Central Committee meeting this week called for the resignation of Prime Minister Oli. But the meeting started five hours late because of a disagreement between Sher Bahadur Deuba and Ram Chandra Poudel on whether or not to join a coalition government led by Oli.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-crucible-of-fragile-coalitions/">A crucible of fragile coalitions</a>, Shekhar Kharel <img width="640" height="322" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4529c7e80680e0966a2jpeg.jpg" alt="">This indecision in the main opposition NC has put the third and fourth parties, the Maoist Centre and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), in a bind. They do not have the numbers by themselves to challenge Oli. However, there is discord within the JSP also. And the cause is, once again, whether to support Oli or not. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/jsp-as-nepals-king-maker-party/">Party chair Mahantha Thakur</a> and Rajendra Mahato have publicly stated that they are inclined to work with Oli’s UML. But the JSP’s other leaders Upendra Yadav and Baburam Bhattarai are vehemently opposed.Because of the JSP’s swing vote in the House, Thakur has emerged as the kingmaker in coalition negotiations. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/">Maoist Centre</a> and the NC need the JSP to unseat Oli, and Oli himself needs the JSP to form the next government if the UML loses the support of the Maoist Centre.   <img width="640" height="399" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110121144/636ce4549c7e80680e0966a3jpeg.jpg" alt="">However, even though Dahal threatened last week to pull the rug from under the UML, his Maoist Centre’s Standing committee meeting decided that time was not ripe to do so. The Maoists have 54 MPs, and if they withdraw support for the UML, which has 121 seats, Prime Minister Oli will have to seek a vote of confidence in the House. Oli will need 138 MPs on his side to win the vote, and will court the JSP with 34 seats or the NC with 63 seats. Dahal knows that if he withdraws support there is every likelihood that either Deuba or Thakur will side with Oli to form an election government. And Maoist leaders know that early elections will be disastrous for them.With all four parties tangled over their support and opposition to Prime Minister Oli, therefore, Nepali politics is hopelessly knotted up.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/house-of-cards/">House of cards</a>, Editorial

Untangling the knots

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd9939c7e80680e092eacjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>A new nationwide opinion poll quantifies widespread public disillusionment with the political leadership in Kathmandu, but shows that people have formed a generally favourable impression of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/holding-up-the-whole-sky-in-jumla/">local governments</a> in the past three years.Of those polled, nearly 47% said they did not trust Prime Minister K P Oli, with the same level of distrust for Chief Ministers, MPs and federal ministers. There was even more distrust of the leaders of political parties: 60%.When asked which was the political party most likely to work for democracy in Nepal, a full 62% said they did not know or did not want to say-- an opinion that has been reflected in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/cant-get-no-satisfaction/">previous Himalmedia Public Opinion polls</a>.This survey was conducted by <a href="https://www.sharecast.org.np" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sharecast Initiative Nepal</a> between 21 February to 3 March, just ahead of  the 7 March Supreme Court decision that dismantled the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) into the previous UML and Maoist Centre.Asked which is the most reliable party to strengthen democracy in Nepal, the Nepali Congress scored the highest with 13.4%. The Oli faction of the NCP came second with 9.6%, and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dahal-nepal-hold-anti-oli-rally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dahal-Nepal</a> faction mustered only 4.1%. The JSP and RPP got less than 2%.This result correlated with responses to another question about which party represented the interests of the people most. Here, too, the NC was slightly ahead (30%) of the CPN (Oli) 28%, CPN (Nepal-Dahal) had 11%, and the JSP 5%. Now that the NCP is divided between the UML and Maoists, the support will be scattered.Surprisingly, the NC was ahead (17%) of the JSP (only 5%) in its own heartland of Province 2. Support for the NC is highest among the Tarai caste (19%) Meanwhile, the Oli vote bank seems to be among the Hill Dalit (7%).However, mayors and ward chairs leave a more favourable impression. When asked which tier of government played the most significant role in improving living standards, an average of half the respondents across all seven provinces said it was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/it-is-now-or-never-to-devolve-power-to-local-governments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local governments</a>.  Significantly, the approval of local government was lowest (33%) in Province 2.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd9979c7e80680e092eadjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="727" height="908">The survey studied 5,082 households across the country, with 80% of the municipalities represented. Gender, age, profession, education level were proportionally represented in the sampling.Factional <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-vs-dahal-1-upmanship/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">in-fighting within the Nepal Communist Party</a> (NCP) for the better part of the past three years seems to have dashed the hopes of many Nepalis for a stable government that would look after their welfare.Despite a two-thirds majority in the 2017 election, a poll has shown that the NCP has squandered its mandate.The Sharecast Initiative Nepal, 2021 public opinion survey shows widespread disenchantment with the way the country is headed politically. More than 44% of the 5,082 households surveyed across the country felt Nepal was headed in the wrong direction with the sense of hopelessness highest in Karnali Province (54%).<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd9999c7e80680e092eaejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="933" height="421">Nearly half of all respondents said they do not trust the prime minister, chief ministers, ministers in the federal and provincial governments.In fact, the disillusionment is so great that 63% of those surveyed said they were not even interested in politics anymore. The more educated the respondents, the more disgusted they seemed to be. Respondents in the Tarai (70%) said they were put off by politics and were not interested.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd99b9c7e80680e092eafjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="957" height="408">Hill Brahmins and Newas seem to be most pessimistic about how things are going, with Tarai and Hill Janjati, less bothered. This cross checked well with responses to another question about how interested people were in politics. Nearly 71% of Hill Janjati and 65% of Tarai Janjati said they were not interested. Both Janjati groups were also the ones that felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.Most people were not as impressed with provincial governments, with the approval rating at 32%, and only 30% felt the federal government in Kathmandu was doing a good job. Lumbini Province seemed to get a consistently high approval, both at the local and provincial level.Not surprisingly, the federal government got the worst marks (30% approval) for performance in the past three years in all seven provinces.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd99d9c7e80680e092eb0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="632" height="288">The most striking result from the survey is that more than 76% said none of the political parties represented their interests. The main concern of most of those surveyed were jobs, poverty and inflation, and the parties were deemed incapable of addressing them.It is obvious that while the concern of most Nepalis is economic, they think the political leadership has failed to deliver.The Sharecast survey also tracked the response to the question about whether the country was moving in the right direction by comparing data for January 2020 with January 2021. In effect, this was useful in gauging how important Nepalis felt the 20 December dissolution of their Lower House by Prime Minister Oli was.While nearly 34% felt the country was going the right way in 2020, only 22% felt the same way a year later. And while 29% thought the country was headed in the wrong direction last year, more than 44% felt that way this January.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd99f9c7e80680e092eb1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="632" height="525">Nepal’s perpetually warring politicians should realise, if they have not already, that the people blame them squarely for the political disarray. In responses to a question about why the country was moving in the wrong direction, 50% blamed it squarely on the power struggle within and between political parties. The multiple choice question also cited political instability, weak leadership and corruption.Among their key concerns, none of those surveyed in their response to another question cited politics. Their top worries were: unemployment, poverty, shortages, inflation, health and education. It seemed as if, even though people know that governance failure is the reason for these problems, few have any faith in the current crop of political leaders to correct it.However, the trust in the judiciary and the Election Commission does not seem to have been dented despite recent events. More than 44% still trusted the justice system and 40% felt the Election Commission could still conduct free and fair elections.Himalmedia public opinion polls in the past 15 years have shown an average of 60% support for Nepal to be a Hindu state. This figure has dropped in the Sharecst survey this year, even though it is still a significant 52%, pointing to a distrust of the concept of ‘secularism’ in the Constitution. Support for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-party-reincarnating-hindu-monarchy/">Hindu state</a> is highest in Province 2 (nearly 70%).Despite everything Nepal’s politicians have done to let the people and country down, most Nepalis still believe that democracy is the best form of government for Nepal's development. Three-fourths of those polled thought so, and only a third of those in the sample group felt democracy and federalism were under threat at present.When asked who was to blame for democracy being at risk, most blamed ‘the government’, NCP (Oli) and NCP (Dahal-Nepal).

In a state of disillusionment

<figure><img width="1076" height="606" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7ce9c7e80680e092e05jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-takes-1-step-forward-2-steps-back/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">decision on Sunday by the Supreme Court</a> that effectively makes the unification of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) null and void, just hours before a crucial recovering of the dissolved Lower House, has thrown the country’s politics into further turmoil and uncertainty.This was reflected in the first session of the restored House on Sunday (pictured below) as the NCP faction led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal staged a walk out, saying Prime Minister K P Oli had no moral right to present ordinances in a House that he himself had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolved on 20 December</a>.  <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d09c7e80680e092e06jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d29c7e80680e092e07jpeg.jpg" alt="">Photos: AMIT MACHAMASIAs the House sat for the first time in two months, there was confusion about whether MPs of the NCP were in the ruling party or the opposition. Dahal called the Supreme Court decision “unexpected” and is said to be in consultations with his colleagues about the way forward.  The alliance between the erstwhile UML led by Prime Minister K P Oli and the Maoist Centre headed by Dahal had won a near two-thirds majority in the 2017 election, and promised political stability in the country. Nepal’s politics has been anything but stable — mainly because Oli and Dahal could not get along. The general impression was that Oli had pulled the rug from under his rivals, by going back to his old party and turning the clock back on unification. However, in doing this, Oli might have sacrificed his own leadership of government. Prime Minister Oli will now have to prove that he has the confidence of a majority of the members of the House. However, there is no chance that the 53 or so members of the Dahal faction will now support him.  “There are now two parties, and as soon as the rival party withdraws its backing, the prime minister has to demonstrate that he has the support of the house,” says constitutional expert Bhimarjun Acharya. The House was reconvened by a Supreme Court decision on 23 February that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overturned Prime Minister Oli’s dissolution</a>. However, with the Dahal faction walking out and the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) raising slogans against the ordinances being proposed, the session had to go into recess. Speaker Agni Sapkota then recessed the House till Wednesday. Another expert, Prof Purna Man Shakya said: “If he wants to remain prime minister Oli’s party will have to get additional votes for which the only way to muster support is from the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP). Failing that, the Maoist Centre, NC and JSP could also form the government.” The House of Representatives has 121 members from the former UML, 63 from the NC, 53 from the Maoist Centre and the JSP has 34. There are four independents. To have a majority in the 275 member House, the UML will need support from one other party, while the Maoist Centre will need three parties to come together. But this arithmetic is complicated by the fact that some former UML are in the Dahal faction, while some ex-Maoists are with Oli.  Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali says the Supreme Court decision actually allows party reunification. “Now we can plan to reunite the party in a more scientific and pragmatic way,” he said.  The future of former Maoists who are ministers in the Oli Cabinet, like Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and Energy Minister Top Bahadur Rayamajhi are also in doubt. The 2015 Constitution has an anti-defection clause for MPs, so they cannot now join the Maoist-Centre. Advocate Meghraj Pokhrel says former Maoist Centre ministers cannot now go over to the UML, they have to return to their original party.  They cannot take part in a future Oli government if he manages support from other parties, and they will be in a dilemma to go back to the Dahal-led party. Members of parliament who won by-elections after the UML-Maoist unification is also uncertain. The biggest loss will be to Madhav Kumar Nepal and Jhalnath Khanal, two former UML prime ministers who joined up with Dahal. They may now be forced to remain in the Oli-led UML.  Constitutional expert Acharya says that the two leaders will require a 40% agreement from the Central Committee and the Parliamentary Party of the CPN-UML to join the Maoist Centre or to form a new party, which they do not have. <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d59c7e80680e092e08jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7d79c7e80680e092e09jpeg.jpg" alt="">“Nepal and Khanal now face a dilemma whether to vote for or against PM Oli if the government tables a confidence motion in Parliament," Acharya says. “And Oli is likely to take action against them if they vote against him." The Supreme Court’s decision seems to have worked to Oli’s benefit and put the Nepal-Khanal camp in the horns of a dilemma, says Prof Shakya. "However, the Supreme Court makes decisions based on the Constitution and the rule of law, not based on who stands to gain or lose politically,” he adds. “Therefore we must analyse the decision in accordance with the constitution and the law.”

No winners in latest Nepal political twist

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c29c7e80680e092e00jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s political drama took another unexpected turn on Sunday as the Supreme Court ruled that the name Nepal Communist Party (NCP) belonged to another group, taking the country back to where it was three years ago when the ruling party was made up of two entities.The 12-page decision came two hours before the House of Representatives reconvened after another Supreme Court ruling on 23 February that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-supreme-court-restores-house/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overturned Prime Minister K P Oli’s decision two months earlier to dissolve the House</a> and call early elections.Sunday’s decision means that for all practical purposes the NCP is once more divided between Oli’s moderate left Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party and the Maoist Centre led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Dahal had led the Maoist guerrillas in a ten-year insurgency and had forged an electoral alliance with Oli to fight the 2017 elections, which it swept and the two parties formally united in 2018. Ever since, Dahal and Oli had been tangled in a bitter power struggle within the party, and when Oli got wind that a vote of no confidence was being registered in the Lower House by the rival faction, he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-outraged-by-pm-oli-move/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">dissolved it on 20 December</a>. There was uncertainty in the Lower House when it reconvened on Sunday (pictured below) as per the Supreme Court ruling, with confusion as to whether the Dahal faction was on the ruling bench or the opposition one. <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c59c7e80680e092e01jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c79c7e80680e092e02jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7c99c7e80680e092e03jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7cc9c7e80680e092e04jpeg.jpg" alt="">The political fate of many senior politicians is now in doubt, as there were former Maoists like Ram Bahadur Thapa in Oli’s camp, and many ex-UML leaders like Madhav Kumar Nepal with Dahal.The Supreme Court decision on Sunday said: ‘Since the Election Commission decision, the Nepal Communist Party (Unified Marxist-Leninist) and the Nepal Communist Party (Maoist Centre) will revert to their previous separate status  unless they re-register themselves as a single party with a name other than Nepal Communist Party at the Election Commission fulfilling all its conditions.’In the past two months, the Oli and Dahal factions had been lobbying hard with the Election Commission to be given the party name and the elections symbol (Sun). The Election Commission had not yet recognised that the party was formally split. The two factions had also engaged in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/muscle-vs-muscle-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">show of strength in the streets with huge rallies</a> to impress the Supreme Court that the House dissolution was unconstitutional. While the apex court agreed with that decision, it has now ruled that neither party has a claim to the name Nepal Communist Party and has effectively reinstated the previous parties before unification.

Nepal takes 1 step forward, 2 steps back

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd75f9c7e80680e092dd6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>All photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As the struggle for supremacy in Nepal’s politics enters a new and uncertain phase with a session of the restored Lower House on Sunday, noticeably absent are the country's women politicians.Whether it is about the no-confidence vote that Prime Minister K P Oli may face in the Parliament he dissolved, or the tactics his party rival Pushpa Kamal Dahal may use, or speculation about NCP members switching sides, or even the king-maker role being played by the NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba, female leaders are nowhere in the picture.“If the leaders of both factions had handled their disagreement in a logical and appropriate manner, the party wouldn’t have been divided in the first place,” says Nepal Communist Party (NCP) MP, Binda Pandey. “As is the norm, there is more finger-pointing than an acknowledgement of weakness from all sides concerned.”Pandey, who has been outspoken on gender rights and development matters in parliamentary committees, says that women and a new generation of leaders need to be given a chance.“It would be great if leaders had an understanding that it is not in anyone’s best interest for them to hold on to office after having already become chief executive or party chief once,” she says, in what could be an unpopular opinion for male leaders of both the NCP and NC who want to be prime minister again, despite having held the post multiple times before.Formerly Maoist and now Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) leader, Hisila Yami says both Oli and Dahal are to blame for the political turmoil. "The NCP leadership is wrangling for power like a selfish couple fighting to own a piece of property without regard for their children, which in this case is the citizenry,” Yami says in an email to Nepali Times.“When the time comes, a new alliance must be formed based on capacity and strength… which is our constitution,” she says. “PM Oli must resign for this to happen, so that the country can overcome this political crisis.”Female leaders interviewed for this report said they are often sidelined in political discourse if they disagree with the male bigwigs. Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) leader Sarita Giri says the current political crisis is rooted in infighting within the NCP, but she is not in favour of Oli stepping down.“Why should he have to resign?” Giri asks. “I have been victimised by party politics, so I understand very clearly what he is going through.” Giri had been dismissed from the then Samajwadi Party-Nepal in July last year when she refused to vote for a constitutional amendment bill following the Lipulekh dispute with India in July last year. She said she received little support from male colleagues in her party.“I had to take a stand on my principles,” she says. “Women cannot take for granted that they will be heard through regular channels. So they have to step out of the box and raise their voices.”While women’s representation in politics is a popular topic for discussion, female leaders face open and often public derision and ridicule from their male counterparts. They range from doubts about political competence to disparaging language and misogynistic attacks on their appearance. This in turn informs the public’s opinion of women in leadership, perpetuating a vicious cycle that delegitimises their social and political platform."Raghuji Panta has revealed his disgusting mindset,” NCP National Assembly member Komal Oli tweeted in response to NCP Dahal-Nepal loyalist Raghuji Panta’s recent misogynistic remarks on her career as a singer and politician. ”I want to ask Pantaji, which female leaders in your party who hold any office achieved their position at the expense of their bodies? Any woman in this country who has reached a position of power has fallen prey to regressive attitudes like yours.”Bibeksheel Sajha Party’s Ranju Darshana also weighed in on Panta’s comments, posting a <a href="https://www.instagram.com/tv/CL3m4MZHAFJ/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.instagram.com/tv/CL3m4MZHAFJ/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1615025386684000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGr-cKWHKnNrl_zAfpj6DdBr5NCQ">video on Instagram</a> where she touched upon sexist comments that she receives regularly on social media, and discussed how female politicians and leaders experience misogyny and opposition from male leaders.“We won’t tolerate comments and attacks intended to dominate, belittle and bring women down,” said Darshana. “Everyone must get an equal chance to represent their communities in office — men, women, and sexual minorities.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7639c7e80680e092dd7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1476" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111148/636cd7669c7e80680e092dd8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">According to a generally observed trend, female leaders and women’s issues are used as convenient political tools during campaigns and movements, but are relegated to the sidelines as soon as it comes to decision-making.“Women are also actively involved in politics, but female leaders are only considered dedicated so long as they agree with the positions of their respective parties. When they dare express any form of disagreement, their sexuality and femininity are questioned and they are considered to be pushing the feminist agenda,” says Pandey.Giri and Pandey acknowledge the increasing participation of women in politics set against the backdrop of an environment that is not conducive for women to air dissenting opinions. But Hisila Yami says that the future of women in politics looks promising.“The need of the hour is for different groups of women to form an alliance in order to move towards an equitable society, and this can be made possible through gender-friendly parliamentarians backed by civil-society activists that we have been seeing during recent protests,” says Yami.In 1959, Dwarika Devi Thakurani became the first female minister of Nepal, and only 137 others have joined the ranks over the years. There are currently 3 women in the Council of Ministers. That Nepal had a female president before even the United States has been cause for much back-patting, and the country may boast of having one of the largest female representations in Parliament. But, much of it is still confined to tokenism.

Women leaders seen, but not heard

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

Job insecurity in security forces

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”

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