COP30 to COP31

This year’s climate summit in Brazil began with the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, acknowledging our moral failure to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. 

But the conclusion of COP30 presents a moment to reflect and recommit to fostering more effective, lasting outcomes. Ten years after the Paris Agreement, frustrations continue to grow regarding inaction as the climate and biodiversity crises worsen. 

Though COP creates necessary climate visibility, its focus on insufficient, short-term and non-binding solutions remains a limiting factor. This approach places vulnerable countries in the role of recipients rather than agents within climate governance. 

The lack of legitimacy and regulation within COP also undermines meaningful action. Recent summits have been hosted by petrostates, with this year’s host at the gateway to the Amazon increasingly recognised as one too. 

The record-breaking presence of 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists at COP30 plus more from agribusiness, sent a startling message of corporate capture. The absence of key players including the United States has further raised concerns about the declining prominence of climate on the global agenda. Nepal’s experience reflects these challenges, while also revealing opportunities to strengthen its capacity to govern and act on climate.

Nepal has demonstrated consistent engagement in global climate diplomacy, participating in every COP summit since their inception – however, its involvement has focused on attendance rather than results. This year’s delegation was reduced to those with relevant ministerial expertise, yet Nepal still lacked a clear strategy, resulting in a largely reactive approach. 

The country must reclaim national ownership of its climate agenda, which remains overshadowed by external influence. Nepal’s COP30 journey included consultations with youth and developing nations, and a joint statement on behalf of Bhutan, Bangladesh and itself – countries linked by glacial melt and downstream impacts. 

While the statement highlighted shared vulnerabilities, it moved predictably to finance. Each year, Nepal’s core objective centres on securing climate finance and highlighting injustice - as a country facing disproportionate impacts despite its minimal contribution to global emissions.

Frequent changes in government and the participation of inexperienced officials have contributed to inconsistent messaging, both over time and between rhetoric and action. This is reflected in the constant appeals for funding despite low expenditure of existing allocations.

Nepal’s framing of finance as an adequate response to growing climate challenges constrains the potential for meaningful progress. Last year, President Ram ChandraPaudel referred to the ‘polluter pays’ principle, but what happened to ‘polluter acts'?

While finance is a compensatory mechanism, even substantial distributions cannot address the root cause of rising emissions. As a result, climate finance often acts as a distraction that many vulnerable countries pursue, yet which rarely meets their needs and worsens debt.

Strong climate governance is a crucial prerequisite for transformative climate action. Weak governance undermines Nepal’s ability to effectively represent itself internationally, and despite recent political upheaval, it cannot lose sight of acting on climate. The primary challenges of the current approach lie in an ill-functioning government, policies lacking implementation, and the neglect of non-state actors. These issues collectively constrain Nepal’s ability to secure tangible outcomes from COP.

BEYOND COP30

Amid recent shifts in governance, Nepal now has an opportunity to redefine its diplomatic approach - positioning itself not only as a recipient but also an agent, shaping climate agendas in the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Greater preparations for COP30 and regional cooperation demonstrated steps forward, but objectives must be refined. 

Climate justice discussions must extend beyond the pursuit of finance to include accountability for polluters actions. Calls for recognition of mountainous vulnerabilities are growing louder, and Nepal has both the potential and obligation to lead, building off momentum from Sagarmatha Sambaad. 

A bold step was taken at COP30 when Nepal, Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan successfully pushed for a dedicated annual dialogue that amplifies mountain voices. Continuing to unite with neighbouring countries as well as distant nations, extends capacity and outcomes significantly.

Batu Krishna Uprety represented Nepal at eleven COPs, and emphasises the need for a finance strategy: “Before requesting additional funds, we need to focus on detailed planning within the country - identifying where the funds will be invested and how they will be utilised.” 

Equipped with a strategy that anticipates future challenges — such as declining aid, graduation from Least-Developing Country status, and the rising demand for finance and subsequent debt - Nepal will be able to exercise greater agency in negotiations.

Alongside national improvements, COP itself must uphold greater responsibility for enhancing countries’ capacity to govern on climate, rather than serving primarily as a compensatory platform. After 30 summits focused on establishing policy, the process must now shift from negotiation to implementation, to deliver fast, far-reaching change. 

One urgent priority is addressing the discouraging trend of self-serving groups who betray the process. Recognising climate change as a polycentric governance challenge requires collaboration across multiple scales and actors. Yet climate diplomacy continues to converge on formal, centralised solutions that overlook non-state contributions. 

Creating visible and meaningful space for multiple centres of agency when promoting hybrid approaches, may prove more effective for countries like Nepal with limited resources, weak state capacity, and untapped community potential. 

Climate action and adaptation must also be understood as being in the economic and security interests of all nations. While Nepal contributes little to global emissions, its transition to net-zero may contribute to saving its economy. For solutions such as electric vehicles to widely succeed however, they must transcend socio-economic inequalities.

Discussions on climate vulnerability and resilience at COP often veer between land and ocean priorities, depending on the host nation. The Asia-Pacific holds significant influence over climate and livelihoods, including the Hindu Kush Himalaya, home to 270 million people and supporting two billion downstream. 

This region demonstrates the connect between distant geographies, as changing environments are profoundly interconnected and affect humanity. Addressing climate impacts at the top of the world extends beyond a national priority to a global responsibility. Nepal has made initial contributions to elevating the mountain agenda in recent years, and laid foundations for broader regional and global connections to be developed.

Future delegates must recognise linked climate vulnerabilities across geographies and regions. While COP31 will take place in Turkey, it will have an Asia-Pacific focus for the first time, shaped by a pre-meeting in the Pacific and Australian leadership.

This offers a significant opportunity to consider vulnerabilities from mountains to islands. To strengthen links, greater attention must be given to the agency of vulnerable countries and communities, whose roles are often obscured when they are portrayed solely as hapless recipients of climate impacts, finance, or assistance.

Amplifying community-determined voices through trusted intermediaries can help ensure that climate action is grounded in lived experience. Gaining visibility within the main agenda of COP will strengthen both representation and outcomes from mountains to islands.

Calling out the shortcomings of yet another disappointing COP is essential if the process is to be reimagined as one that delivers the ambitious outcomes the world urgently needs. The legacy of the Global North dominating diplomatic discourse must evolve. 

With major emitters increasingly turning inward, now is the time for the Global South to look outward and raise a collective voice to reshape global climate diplomacy. Nepal is well positioned to contribute to this shift. By advancing the mountain agenda, strengthening national governance, and cooperating across regions and geographies, Nepal can demonstrate what climate leadership from vulnerable nations looks like. 

Zoe Witkowski recently completed a climate governance internship at Niti Foundation.